'13/'14 Bowl Season

what an insane loss to begin the bowls...a sickening moose to lose with Wazzou. will be walking funny for days, as a result. just fuckin' unreal...

:puking:

anyhow, i'm sorry to whoever was on the same side today...especially if you followed. despite all the mistakes, despite everything, they still had the ball with 2 minutes left...and could've almost kneeled out the clock. but that's where i was wrong today...the one part where i blew it in my analysis...in that's exactly why Leach has such a bad bowl record. not only was he out-coached in the game, he was an abomination managing time at the end of both halves.

add the b2b fumbles to all that, and we get what looks like OT...a major moose job in and of itself...only to have the kickoff fumbled, lol. beyond words...and way too silly for even conspiracy backers.

Colly St backers...go throw something on the lottery tonight. You're living right...
 
a disappointing 3-3 (-.6 of a unit) today to kick off bowl season. still shaking my head at how that wasn't a 5-1 day though. capped most everything correctly...only the buffalo pick was a bad one in the end...but shit happened...even if it was insanely unreal at times.

unfortunately though, that crap kinda takes the luster off the bowl season for me...at least while i'm still walkin' funny. thankfully, there's no bowl tomorrow...and only a couple small ones until after Christmas...so hopefully some time away, while wounds scab over, will bring back the spirit of the (bowl) season.

anyways, after a brew or two too many, i did learn one thing today/tonight...
in completely different ways, with very different situations, the coaches of the two teams that hadn't been bowling in a decade sure found some 'creative' ways to blow what should've been fairly easy wins for their programs. (although, in tulane's case...montana jr and the refs sure had a lot to say about that early on, lol.)

speaking of that, there's an apple that didn't fall close enough to the tree...
 
just updated (and maybe learned) something else...
days like these are how office secretaries/etc jump out to early leads in office pools.

:dunno:
 
I haven't gone to blankets in a few months but tempted to go there for the post-new mexico bowl threads....
 
clowncar said:
I haven't gone to blankets in a few months but tempted to go there for the post-new mexico bowl threads....
Click to expand...

nah...looking to the lowest common denominator following that horribly bad beat couldn't have been a good decision. (just wasn't the time or place to look/stare at the 7 car pile up on the side of the fwy.)


----------


anyhow, i'm over that crap...time healed the wound. unfortunately though, just found out that my Boise/Beaver over was Langed the other night. :(

piss poor start to the bowls for me...4-4 so far, down 1 unit exactly. guess i didn't get any good karma for actually putting write-ups together, lol.
 
forgot to mention...clock management (or the lack thereof) is quickly becoming a trend this bowl season...considering both Ohio and Boise, since i've last been online.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
prolly shouldn't do this, as i'm copying/pasting from elsewhere...but in case anyone likes to read these things, Merry Christmas/Happy Bowling, here you go:

Power Sweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/p3ljx4cg0r43k4w/powersweepbowls.pdf
Power Plays
http://www.mediafire.com/view/vuasw1faa8g8f6m/powerplaysbowls.pdf
Winning Points
http://www.mediafire.com/view/ayoey0l75rdyr41/Winning Points.pdf
Pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/4vfrj5vxnr7crcx/Pointwise Wk#17.pdf
Playbook
http://www.playbook.com/pos86915/football/72413/newsletter.pdf
Gold Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/cp0v9gb0dphbhux/Gold+Sheet+Week+17.pdf
Sports Reporter
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/SPREPORTER17.pdf
Nelly's
http://www.nellysports.com/cart/download/10newsletter0.pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/view/25rlioyaq8auinb/CKO.pdf
Click to expand...


^^ a few of these were for all the bowls. but here are the updates/new ones...


Pointwise
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/POINTWISE18.pdf
Gold Sheet
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/GOLDSHEET18.pdf
CKO
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/CKO18.pdf
Playbook
http://www.playbook.com/pos86915/football/72413/newsletter.pdf
Winning Points
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/WINPOINTS18.pdf
Sports Reporter
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/SPREPORTER18.pdf


lmk if i missed anything you guys are looking to read. fwiw, i haven't found Inside the Pressbox (as a file) anywhere.
 
^^ thx, D8. you too, my friend.


well, one call by the refs kept BG in the game this 1st half. Pitt (surprisingly) looking real good. a bit concerned about the 2nd half though. Pitt should still be able to pound the rock, but worried that Savage might be dinged...where it effects the 2nd half/outcome. the refs are a question mark too. so an middle/hedge addition...

BG 2H (-4) @ -120 for 1/2

worst case, i juice out on the small plays. really hoping to hit both of these though. but again, if Savage's throwing arm wasn't a concern in the end half, i would've let it ride.
 
whew...that 2nd half barely worked out...and just a push at that. was so close to a late safety though, and juicing out.
anyhow, 2-0-1 on the small plays today...6-4-1 now, up a whole .20 of a unit...having lost my 2 biggest plays to date (wazzou and the beaver over).
 
moving on to Friday, three additions...

Military Bowl, 12/27
Marshall (-2.5) @ -105 for 1/2

Texas Bowl, 12/27
Syracuse (+4.5) @ -110 for .7

Fight Hunger Bowl, 12/27
Washington (-3) @ -110 for .7

sticking with smaller plays, as imo that's what is warranted by these match-ups. so a few very short write-ups to go along with the plays.

Maryland's got HFA, so that's the reason behind the half play. They also played in a better conference, but the SOS's aren't all that different...at least by the ones i'm using, per the 1st page. Marshall's got the better offense here though, running and passing...as well as the better pass efficiency defense. Terps may feed off home field early, but just see Marshall winning this one. More bullets to fire from a better gun.

Cuse/Minny is a pretty even match-up on paper. Similar SOS's...both solid rush offenses...both pathetic pass offenses...both a bit below average pass defenses...and both basically equal in TO margin. Made Minny a 3 pt fav here by my #s, but neither Kill or Minny has had much success bowling in the past. Anyways, the one big difference between these teams...and why i played Cuse...is that the Orange have the better rushing defense in this game. (#26/Cuse to #52/Minny.) And considering these shit QBs, that could very well be the difference here.

BYU/UW is another very equal match-up on paper. Again...both similar SOS's...both great rush offenses...both average rush defenses...and both solid in pass efficiency defense. The differences in Washington's favor are a marginal advantage in TO margin...but more importantly, they've got the better passing offense here (#31 to #75). If it wasn't for the change in the coaching staff, this would be a full play. But with Sark gone, and Petersen watching, i scaled it back a bit. I mean it obviously didn't hurt/effect USC...but BYU's pretty solid, so you never know. Anyhow, my #s made UW a 5 pt fav here, so hopefully Price & Sankey will lead UW to a nice bowl win...another for the Pac-12.
 
2 (of 4) small additions for manana...

Belk Bowl, 12/28
UNC (-2.5) @ -110 for 1/2

Russell Athletic Bowl, 12/28
Miami (+4.5) @ -105 for 1/2

taking care of something on the home front, and trying to watch the end of Cuse/Minny, so will be back in a few with short write-ups on these two games.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
2 (of 4) small additions for manana...

Belk Bowl, 12/28
UNC (-2.5) @ -110 for 1/2

Russell Athletic Bowl, 12/28
Miami (+4.5) @ -105 for 1/2

taking care of something on the home front, and trying to watch the end of Cuse/Minny, so will be back in a few with short write-ups on these two games.
Click to expand...


ok...two short write-ups for two small (like-minded) plays.


just about everything is in Cincy's favor tomorrow. better offensive stats...better defensive stats...they get .5 more yards per play then UNC...and they give up .5 less yards per play then UNC. on top of that, UNC's O-coordinator is long gone...and Tuberville's a solid bowl HC for the other side. so what gives?
other then TO margin, there are really only two factors in UNC's favor on paper...HFA, since the bowl's in Charlotte, and strength of schedule...#24 to #125, as Cincy played one of the softest schedules in college football...obviously to the benefit of those stats.
my PR #s made UNC a 3.5 fav by providing 3 pts for HFA, so hardly any value with the current line. anyhow, all the negatives for UNC are why this is only a half play. but on the positive side, besides the SOS advantage, i just really like how UNC closed the year...after Renner went down, and was replaced by Williams. just gave another dimension to the offense, and a nice boost down the stretch. lastly, tbh, there's some gut feeling involved.


much of what's above can also be said for the Louisville/Miami match-up, because on paper the Canes should get beaten handily. Ville's got the better offense, and the much better defense here...and a significant TO margin advantage too. Miami's running game just hasn't been the same since Duke Johnson went down. the ypp on offense were about equal between these teams, but Ville allowed 1.5 less ypp defensively. bottom line, there's a big time defensive advantage for Ville tomorrow. so again, what gives?
yes, SOS comes into play again...as Miami was #69 to Louisville's #120. but even though that was a cupcake, POS schedule...the Cane's schedule wasn't strong enough to warrant all that much on SOS alone. and my PR #s make Ville a 4.5 pt fav here as well.
so the reason for the half play on Miami, glossing over SOS, is threefold. one is that the BCS busters that came up short are 0-2 bowling, with Fresno & NIU, so hoping the same holds true for Louisville...even though their loss came much earlier in a season where they expected to go undefeated. but more importantly, two, comes down to their star player...Teddy Bridgewater. down the stretch (L4 games) he didn't have one 300 yd passing performance, and only totaled 5 TDs in those games. how Bridgewater goes, Louisville goes...and I think he's got the NFL on his mind...where he just wants to enter the draft healthy. lastly, three, motivation. sure, many Louisville players are looking forward to playing in FLA...and want to prove themselves vs a program like Miami. however, i gotta believe Miami will be focused...playing very motivated football...in their first bowl since 2010, having served their bowl ban. anyhow, more gut feelings here too.


tbh, there aren't many "football" reasons behind backing either UNC or Miami in tomorrow's bowls...at least on paper...which is why both are only (more) 1/2 unit plays for me. that said, i liked the angles enough to back both sides. hopefully the BS i just wrote kinda explains why, lol.
 
got a halftime decision to make... :(

UW is the better team, with the better players, in this bowl game. that said, they are severely out-coached so far...and the BYU players are the more motivated bunch...so the UW advantages are not showing up, except in special teams.

so gonna look at the 2nd half. don't wanna go there, just don't like what i'm seeing.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
got a halftime decision to make... :(

UW is the better team, with the better players, in this bowl game. that said, they are severely out-coached so far...and the BYU players are the more motivated bunch...so the UW advantages are not showing up, except in special teams.

so gonna look at the 2nd half. don't wanna go there, just don't like what i'm seeing.
Click to expand...


left it (my UW -3 play) alone for the game.

was very tempted to take BYU +3 for the 2nd half...juice out, worst case...but at the last minute, i couldn't do it.

hopefully my guy proves to be right, or i'll be kicking myself later...considering what i watched during the 1st half. come on, Washington...pick it up...since i didn't jump ship.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
got a halftime decision to make... :(

UW is the better team, with the better players, in this bowl game. that said, they are severely out-coached so far...and the BYU players are the more motivated bunch...so the UW advantages are not showing up, except in special teams.

so gonna look at the 2nd half. don't wanna go there, just don't like what i'm seeing.
Click to expand...

Looking at it the same way but I have a feeling Wash is still the right side.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
left it (my UW -3 play) alone for the game.

was very tempted to take BYU +3 for the 2nd half...juice out, worst case...but at the last minute, i couldn't do it.

hopefully my guy proves to be right, or i'll be kicking myself later...considering what i watched during the 1st half. come on, Washington...pick it up...since i didn't jump ship.
Click to expand...

lol @ me. GUT, not guy, smh.


DaRaiders said:
Looking at it the same way but I have a feeling Wash is still the right side.
Click to expand...

hope so, bud...and agreed, which is why i didn't do anything.
Price came up big that drive. Just need the defense to start doing the same.
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
lol @ me. GUT, not guy, smh.




hope so, bud...and agreed, which is why i didn't do anything.
Price came up big that drive. Just need the defense to start doing the same.
Click to expand...
So far so good...
Starting to feel the 40-50+ guys should have their own in-game
 
8 Pac-12 teams bowling this year...and we're off to a 3-1 start, SU & ATS.
if only Leach knew how to kneel out the clock, it would be a perfect 4-0 SUATS!!!

:dancing:
 
yeah can't bet against the pac12 this early, just mismatches all over the place
 
PAC 12 hopefully proving to be the best conference this year. Damn Mike Leach for keeping the perfect record and for breaking my betting heart.

Only 1 game that I plan on fading away from a PAC 12 team from here on out....and could be a game that the PAC 12 team blows the door off their opponent lol
 
if you read the 1st page of this thread...specifically me and Tru going over lines...you know that this was not in my plans. not the side i wanted to play, but an addition nevertheless...

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 12/28
Kansas St (-5.5) @ -110 for .7

my PR #s had made KSt only a 1 pt fav in this bowl game...a bowl game where dogs often bark, btw. michigan had the SOS advantage (#11 to #71)...the better passing offense...the better rushing defense...the better TO margin...and so forth. furthermore, for whatever reason, Snyder doesn't win bowl games...at least lately. (kst has lost their L5 bowls.) so i had this one pegged as the typical late December play on the dog.
but obviously, things changed. one of the advantages KSt has in this match-up is rushing offense...#53 to #101. to keep it simple, Michigan can't run the ball. they're a passing offense. then we find out the other day that Gardner's out, and UM's got a new QB. a freshman making his 1st college start...in a bowl game...with basically no running game to help him out/rely upon. felt like i had no choice but to go the other way, as a result.
another advantage KSt has in this match-up is pass efficiency defense. and considering the QB situation, it just feel like mistakes will be made...as KSt will surely pressure him, and try to confuse him. anyways, if this freshman QB can come out in his first college start and lead his team to a bowl win, i'll have to tip my hat to the kid. just can't bet on that unlikely of a scenario.
fwiw...KSt offense at 6.1 ypp, where Michigan was at 5.3 ypp (with Gardner though)...and KSt defense at 4.9 ypp against, where Michigan was at 5.1 ypp against.
anyhow, this isn't a full play...as i don't trust/like KSt's bowl history. but that said, the QB situation simply took away the main advantages Michigan had in this bowl game...so I changed direction, and took the favorite instead.
 
last addition for Saturday, and it's not pretty...

Pinstripe Bowl, 12/28
Rutgers(+21) to Rutgers/ND ov46.5 for .77 to win .7

where to begin? well, my PR #s made Notre Dame a 16 pt fav here. the Domer's offense averages .9 yards per play more than Rutger's offense...while the Domer's defense allows .6 yards per play less than Rutgers defense...and that's against a much tougher schedule. ND had the #13 SOS, where Rutgers had the #87 SOS.
both teams have below average/poor rushing attacks, and both teams have average passing attacks...with ND being slightly better in both categories. the main differences, not factoring in the schedules, are on defense. Rutgers had the #4 rushing defense (to ND at #76), while ND had the #58 pass efficiency defense (to Rutgers at #103). and on paper, that's the biggest factor...as Rutgers can't defend the pass...and the Domer receivers should have a tremendous match-up advantage here.
all that said, there are reasons behind this teaser...despite Rutgers getting boat-raced by so many teams, including UConn lol, down the stretch. first, ND has only beaten two teams this year by more then 10 points...Air Force and Temple. second, even though NYC has a lot of Domer alumni, you gotta give some HFA to Rutgers in this spot. third, what's the motivation? sure, ND doesn't wanna get embarrassed...but the Pinstripe Bowl on 12/28 is sure a helluva step back from being in the National Championship game the year before, lol. yes, Rutgers inability to defend the pass has me concerned...thus the tease to a full 3 TDs...but Rees, after a good start early in the season, is just a 53.7% completion %...with 27 TDs & 13 INTs. in other words, it's not like Rutgers is facing Derek Carr again...so that's fourth. fifth is that Rutgers has actually been a solid bowl team, only losing LY's game in OT...where ND has crap #s as a double digit favorite. sixth, ND has lost both their O & D coordinators to other HC jobs. yes, Rutgers cleaned house too...but that was a firing. and finally, seventh, ND is missing 2 starters on their o-line (not to mention Nix on defense). combine that with the fact that Rutgers was the #25 defense in sacking the QB, and maybe Rees won't have time to take advantage of that POS secondary.
anyhow, that's the gist of it. but like i said, i needed a full 3 TDs to back Rutgers here...so i teased it with the over, which imo gets comfortably into the mid to high 50s.
 
thanks again for the work......like these write-ups. Grats on UW, I was with you.

i have been doing well this bowl season (so far) and playing SOS as a key component. I took Louisville -3 right at the open and may change for reasons u write above but my gut says Bridgewater wills himself to a good last performance. Like Cincy due to Tuberville but SOS of UNC is hard for me to ignore.

Thanks again
 
bones said:
thanks again for the work......like these write-ups. Grats on UW, I was with you.

i have been doing well this bowl season (so far) and playing SOS as a key component. I took Louisville -3 right at the open and may change for reasons u write above but my gut says Bridgewater wills himself to a good last performance. Like Cincy due to Tuberville but SOS of UNC is hard for me to ignore.

Thanks again
Click to expand...

glad you're doing well, bones...ad congrats on louisville! :shake:
 
well, that was not the day i had hoped for. 2-2 today, down a whole .01 of a unit. wasted effort, lol...but sitting at 11-6-1, +2.09 bowling to date.

day off tomorrow, so time to reflect and cap some more. but thru the first 15 bowl games, there are only 2 bets that i'd change looking back.
yes, i obviously have more losses bowling than those 2 games...but we're not gonna win them all, and most of those losses had a helluva shot...with 3 of them being the right play, imho.

in any case, not trying to start a debate on the past. just saying that the only two plays i regret making to date were Buffalo and Miami...as i couldn't have been more wrong in either case. those two teams never had a chance, so were capped poorly (in hindsight).

anyhow, 4 more on monday and another 4 on tuesday...then we're into the new year. :)
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
prolly shouldn't do this, as i'm copying/pasting from elsewhere...but in case anyone likes to read these things, Merry Christmas/Happy Bowling, here you go:

Power Sweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/p3ljx4cg0r43k4w/powersweepbowls.pdf
Power Plays
http://www.mediafire.com/view/vuasw1faa8g8f6m/powerplaysbowls.pdf
Winning Points
http://www.mediafire.com/view/ayoey0l75rdyr41/Winning Points.pdf
Pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/4vfrj5vxnr7crcx/Pointwise Wk#17.pdf
Playbook
http://www.playbook.com/pos86915/football/72413/newsletter.pdf
Gold Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/cp0v9gb0dphbhux/Gold+Sheet+Week+17.pdf
Sports Reporter
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/SPREPORTER17.pdf
Nelly's
http://www.nellysports.com/cart/download/10newsletter0.pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/view/25rlioyaq8auinb/CKO.pdf
Click to expand...

Wish I'd seen this. Is Dave Malinsky still involved Winning Points?
 
just about done with the next 8 bowls to finish off december. will be on late tonight to post them up, w/ whatever write-ups i can quickly toss together.

:shake:
 
Yanks27Sox8 said:
just about done with the next 8 bowls to finish off december. will be on late tonight to post them up, w/ whatever write-ups i can quickly toss together.

:shake:
Click to expand...


had to get these next 8 bowls done, as i'm not sure how much i'll be able to be around before the new year...besides a drunk/very late NYE, maybe. anyhow, that said, might actually have a prop or two (involving the Pac-12 games, of course)...so might pop in via my phone to add them.

in any case, i guess i'll post them one-by-one with short write-ups...at least until i run outta gas, as it's already midnight...then it'll just be throwing them up. but all 8 of these were played at various times throughout the day...and fwiw, none of them are a full play.

just nothing all that sexy...and tbh, for late december, i do not have enough dogs going the next two days.
 
first addition of the night...

Armed Forces Bowl, 12/30
MTST (+7) @ -110 for 1/2

this is one of those bowls that on paper, navy should cover. they have the #2 rushing offense, facing the #83 rushing defense...not to mention a #90 to #117 SOS advantage. and fwiw, my PR #s make navy a 5.5 fav here. so why the half play the other way?
many reasons. first is that mtst isn't a bad running team either at #24 in cfb. navy ranks just behind mtst in rushing defense, btw, at #84. mtst doesn't have a great passing offense or defense by any means, but they're sure better than navy in those categories. navy's pass offense comes in at #122 in cfb, and their pass efficiency defense at #98. navy also doesn't pressure the QB, only registering 10 sacks all season. anyhow, mtst's rush defense improved down the stretch...so hoping that the extra prep time, w/out the threat of a passing attack, will aid the cause here...balance things out a bit. both teams averaged 5.6 ypp on offense...but mtst allowed .5 ypp less defensively. so i'm backing the better defense, the better passing offense, but the inferior rushing offense here.
lastly, navy's been bowling just about every year of late...and it hasn't always been pretty under niumatalolo's watch (1-4 SU). and we all know navy's history as a fav. mtst is only 1-2 all time bowling...but that's where motivation comes into play, imo. mtst returned a lot of players/starters from 2012. that was a team that went 8-4, only to get hosed out of a bowl (toledo-style this year) by the selection committee. i may be wrong, but i believe that'll play a factor tomorrow...in that mtst will be a focused/highyl motivated team.
 
second addition of the night...

Music City Bowl, 12/30
Ole Miss (-3) @ -105 for .8

going against the one-dimensional, better rushing team, again. GT has the #4 rushing offense, but also only the #118 passing offense. GT has a solid rush defense at #10 in cfb, but their pass efficiency defense ranks only #80. and that's Ole Miss's strength offensively, having the #24 ranked passing offense in cfb. rushing offense, rushing defense, and pass efficiency defense are all just above average for Ole Miss as well. so all that said, they are definitely the more balanced team in this match-up.
anyhow, my PR #s only make Ole Miss a 1 pt favorite here. that said, they do have the SOS advantage (14 to 32) over GT...they gain .2 ypp more on offense, and they allow .3 ypp less on defense than GT. but full disclosure, this comes play also comes down to the recent bowl history of these two programs.
under Johnson, GT has pretty much sucked in the bowls. yes, they upset a USC team that didn't show up last year (21-7)...but prior to that, GT had lost 7 straight. if the Trojans had remotely cared last year under Lane, it would be 8 straight. anyhow, the flip side of that is the fact that Ole Miss is shooting for their 6th straight bowl victory tomorrow...which was something i couldn't ignore.
 
third addition of the night...

Alamo Bowl, 12/30
Oregon (-14) @ -110 for 1/2

believe me...i get why a lot of the pundits are backing texas here. the Ducks had higher aspirations, bottom line...so motivation is a concern. texas also has the SOS advantage, 45 to 81...and for those of us that use SOS as a tool, this match-up crosses that 60 threshold. furthermore, my personal PR #s only make the Ducks a 9.5 pt fav here...so there's a ton of line value backing texas as well. yet i made a half play on Oregon, despite all of that. why?
first, imo, this inflated line is flat out begging you to take texas tomorrow...especially considering the situation...a Ducks team with loftier goals, and a Longhorn team with their HC retiring. but tbh, i'm seeing all that as fool's gold. i've got questions about how focused Texas will be with all this drama...and on one level, i wonder how much dysfunction exists in Texas right now. but even if there is emotion for Mack, how long will it last? and is it any more significant than Oregon's emotion for Nick Aliotti's pending retirement? anyhow, i also disagree that Oregon will not be motivated. tbh, i believe that really changed the day Mariota said that he was staying for another season. as a result, i think the Ducks will be focused on erasing the down moments of this season from their mind...use this bowl to get things back on track...and move onto 2014 with great aspirations again.
in terms of the match-up...Oregon's got the much better rushing offense, the much better passing offense (as Texas doesn't have a good QB, to be nice), the better rushing defense, the better pass efficiency defense, and the better TO margin. on offense, Oregon gains 7.2 ypp compared to 5.3 ypp for Texas. and on defense, Oregon allows 4.7 ypp compared to 5.2 ypp for Texas. on paper, it's all Oregon. yes, Texas will try to dominate the trenches in an attempt to do what Stanford was able to do to Oregon. but bottom line, Texas isn't Stanford, and won't be able to pull that off is the Ducks show up as i expect. just look at how Okie Lite or Baylor (at less then 100%) did to Texas down the stretch. Oregon should be able to exploit their weaknesses in much the same fashion.
anyhow, that's my reasoning. and because there's a lot of conjecture on my part, on top of the inflated line, i only made this a half play. (that said, a team total &/or player prop could be added when available.)
 
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