'13/'14 Bowl Season

[Yanks27Sox9]

It's bowl season again! One of the best times of the year, mixed around the holidays. Finished the '13 college football season at 93-76-3, 10.895 units to the good. Started the season on fire, had one terrible week (Wk 13), and too many .500 Saturdays in between...so it should've been much better. That said, no complaints. I really enjoyed the football season, honing my power ranking skills/#s throughout, and am now looking forward to another solid run thru the bowls. Should be involved again in just about every bowl game. Anyhow, as always, I will update this 1st post as I make plays during the bowl season...copying them below, of course, with write-ups whenever possible.


New Mexico Bowl, 12/21
Washington St (-3.5) @ -110 for 1 L
Wash St TT over 34.5 @ -110 for 1/2 W

Las Vegas Bowl, 12/21
USC (-6) @ -110 for 1/2 W
Agholor rec. yds over 78.5 @ +115 for 1/2 W

Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/21
Buffalo ML (-105) for 1/2 L

New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
Tulane ML (-110) for 1/2 L

St Petersburg Bowl, 12/23
ECU(-7) to Ohio/ECU ov55 for .77 to win .70 W

Hawaii Bowl, 12/24
Oregon St/Boise St over 65 @ -110 for 1 L

Little Caesar's Bowl, 12/26
Pittsburgh (+5) @ -105 for 1/2 W
Bowling Green 2H (-4) @ -120 for 1/2 T

Poinsettia Bowl, 12/26
Utah St (+2.5) @ -110 for .7 W

Military Bowl, 12/27
Marshall (-2.5) @ -105 for 1/2 W

Texas Bowl, 12/27
Syracuse (+4.5) @ -110 for .7 W

Fight Hunger Bowl, 12/27
Washington (-3) @ -110 for .7 W

Pinstripe Bowl, 12/28
Rutgers(+21) to Rutgers/ND ov46.5 for .77 to win .70 L

Belk Bowl, 12/28
UNC (-2.5) @ -110 for 1/2 W

Russell Athletic Bowl, 12/28
Miami (+4.5) @ -105 for 1/2 L

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, 12/28
Kansas St (-5.5) @ -110 for .7 W

Armed Forces Bowl, 12/30
MTST (+7) @ -110 for 1/2 L

Music City Bowl, 12/30
Ole Miss (-3) @ -105 for .8 W

Alamo Bowl, 12/30
Oregon (-14) @ -110 for 1/2 W

Holiday Bowl, 12/30
Arizona St (-14) @ -105 for .8 L

AdvoCare V100 Bowl, 12/31
Arizona (-7) @ -120 for 1/2 W

Sun Bowl, 12/31
UCLA (-7) @ -110 for .7 W

Liberty Bowl, 12/31
Mississippi St (-7) @ +100 for 1/2 W

Chick-fil-A Bowl, 12/31
Duke(+18.5) to Duke/A&M ov68.5 for .77 to win .70 W

Gator Bowl, 1/1
Nebraska (+9) @ -105 for .6 W

Heart of Dallas Bowl, 1/1
N Texas (-6.5) @ -105 for .6 W

Outback Bowl, 1/1
Iowa (+8) @ -105 for .6 W

Capital One Bowl, 1/1
Wisconsin (-2) @ -105 for .6 L

Rose Bowl, 1/1
Stanford (-6) @ -120 for 3/4 L

Fiesta Bowl, 1/1
Baylor(-9.5) to UCF/Baylor ov63 for .90 to win 3/4 L

Sugar Bowl, 1/2
Bama(-9.5) to Oklahoma/Bama ov44.5 for .90 to win 3/4 L

Cotton Bowl, 1/3
Oklahoma St (-2.5) @ -105 for .8 L

Orange Bowl, 1/3
B. Miller rushing yards over 105.5 @ +100 for 1/2 L
T. Boyd TD passes + INT's over 3.5 @ +115 for 1/2 W

Compass Bowl, 1/4
Houston (+2) @ -105 for 1/2 L

GoDaddy Bowl, 1/5
Ball St (-7) @ -105 for 1/2 L

BCS Champ Game, 1/6
FSU(-1.5) to Auburn/FSU ov60.5 for .90 to win 3/4
Winston TD passes over 3 @ -105 for .8


Good luck this season, good bowling, and Happy Holidays!!! :cheers:

 

[B.A.R.]

Don't disagree with any so far

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

my first play of the bowl season, and it just happens to be on the first day of the bowls...

New Mexico Bowl, 12/21
Washington St (-3.5) for 1

looks like the LV opener was 4 pts, but it came down to 3.5 pts today. and if it drops to a flat 3, i'll probably be adding to the wager.

The Pac-12 only got one team in the BCS bowls...should've been two...but the conference got a record 9 teams into the bowls this year, so happy about that.

Where to begin with this match-up?
Both teams will be highly motivated, as neither has been bowling for years...although it's been an extra 5 years for Wazzou, since they last bowled 10 years ago in 2003. Both teams have solid head coaches in the 2nd years at their respective programs. But that said, this is Mike Leach...a football genius to be doing this at Wazzou...so edge Cougars...as it is at the QB position too.

Anyhow, two good coaches...both teams very motivated. Think it was Joe Public or VK back in the day that posted the main factors to weight (pay attention to) when it comes to bowls. But for the sake of being short...this play comes down to 2 main factors, other than what i've just said about coaching and motivation.

Reason one for Wash St...there's a glaring match-up problem between these teams. Wazzou is the 3rd or 4th best passing offense in college football, depending on the source. Conversely, Colly St is 105th or 106th in pass efficiency defense...again, depending on the source you prefer to use. In any case, it's pretty clear that Wazzou's strength, led by Halliday, matches up perfectly with Colorado State's weakness.

Reason two for Wash St...there's a glaring disparity in strength of schedules between these teams. Colly St (#4 in the MWC) went 7-6, but only played one ranked team this year in Alabama. Furthermore, they had 6 wins against FBS opponents...and those 6 FBS teams they beat went a combined 17-55 this year. Pretty bad, huh? Washington St (#7 in the Pac-12) went 6-6, playing a much tougher schedule...and that close loss at Auburn to start the year sure looks a whole lot more meaningful here at the end of the season.
Ok, back to the important strength of schedule. Pre-season, Steele has Wazzou with the 26th hardest schedule...and Colly St with the 72nd hardest schedule. Obviously that was pre-season, and things have changed. There are a few SOS rankings we can use to demonstrate the large disparity between Wazzou and Colly St, but I'm gonna use the most glaring example. Sagarin's updated (post-regular season) numbers have Washington St ranked #1 in strength of schedule. And where, you ask, are the Rams? Well, Sagarin has Colorado St ranked all the way down at #105 in strength of schedule.
Yes, this is just one example...and I picked the most glaring, admittedly. But all that said, this is one of the most lopsided match-ups in the bowl season when it comes to SOS.

Gotta run. Didn't proofread, so will fix any typos later. The gist of the play on Wash St should be clear though. No, they don't have the best defense either...but what team in these early bowls isn't flawed?

Washington St, in their 1st bowl game in 10 years...thx to Leach...starts things off with a nice win!

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Don't disagree with any so far

hehe...i'd hope not.

but since you're the master at this...do you know where Joe Public's old bowl thread went? the one we had stickied for years? did it get lost forever with the server mess?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

i'm sure you all check these things out, but here are some links to various capping tools...


http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

http://www.philsteele.com/fbsinfo/2013/13powerratings.html

http://www.gberatings.com/sos/

http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/current_congrove_rankings.html

http://home.comcast.net/~keepersfootball/site/

http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/strength-of-schedule-by-team


they're not updated yet...but hoping to have my personal PR rankings/#s up soon. :shake:

 

[tru]

GL this bowl season yanks.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL this bowl season yanks.

thanks, tru...you too, buddy. :shake:

 

[HammersSpreads]

Go get 'em Yanks.
When 5dimes had the wazzou line at -10 I was bummed bc I thought it was pretty spot on and shocked they had them favored so high, then when Vegas came out with -3.5 I was much happier

 

[KowboyKarl]

Solid write-up. Really like Wazzu as well. May be driving up to Albuquerque for this one.

GL in the bowls, Yanks. :shake:

 

[RetroVK]

good luck yanks

 

[Judge Smails]

hehe...i'd hope not.

but since you're the master at this...do you know where Joe Public's old bowl thread went? the one we had stickied for years? did it get lost forever with the server mess?

Did it have something to do with this ...

Fade teams ATS whose Strength of Schedule is less than 60 unless that team is playing a team who has a lower Strength of Schedule - assuming at least one of the two teams are in the top 60 ... Basically take every team who has a Strength of Schedule better than 60 and who is playing against a team who has a Strength of Schedule less than 60


​Just guessing really, can't remember that far back.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Go get 'em Yanks.
When 5dimes had the wazzou line at -10 I was bummed bc I thought it was pretty spot on and shocked they had them favored so high, then when Vegas came out with -3.5 I was much happier

thanks, hammer. :cheers:
i was late, so i'm using the las vegas openers for reference. seems like dimes had some 'off' early lines out there for a bit though.

Solid write-up. Really like Wazzu as well. May be driving up to Albuquerque for this one.

GL in the bowls, Yanks. :shake:

cool. thanks, KK. if you go, have a good trip... :cheers:

good luck yanks

thank you, VK. :cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Did it have something to do with this ...

Fade teams ATS whose Strength of Schedule is less than 60 unless that team is playing a team who has a lower Strength of Schedule - assuming at least one of the two teams are in the top 60 ... Basically take every team who has a Strength of Schedule better than 60 and who is playing against a team who has a Strength of Schedule less than 60


​Just guessing really, can't remember that far back.

i kinda remember that, Judge. but i'm pretty sure JP had a thread stickied for years in the forum. the #1 thing on the list was motivation, then it went on from there....things like coaching, suspensions, etc that gyno listed in his thread this year. SOS was somewhere on the list though, that's for sure.

that's an interesting angle above. i tend to use SOS only where it's significant, at least in my mind...and where the other factors line up.
for example, the other big SOS discrepancy this bowl season is Messy St vs Rice. i'm not ready to jump on that game based on SOS alone, and w/out capping it in greater detail. but at first glance, it jumps out at me as something to look deeper at in the near future.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

my final PR rankings/#s for the year...


[TABLE="width: 192"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]118.40[/TD]
[TD]Florida State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]114.46[/TD]
[TD]Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]112.23[/TD]
[TD]Stanford
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]110.28[/TD]
[TD]Oregon
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]109.99[/TD]
[TD]Baylor
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]107.49[/TD]
[TD]Ohio State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.79[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.23[/TD]
[TD]Auburn
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.12[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]106.05[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.97[/TD]
[TD]Arizona State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.65[/TD]
[TD]Michigan State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.64[/TD]
[TD]Clemson
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]105.11[/TD]
[TD]LSU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.33[/TD]
[TD]Washington
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]104.20[/TD]
[TD]UCLA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.68[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.36[/TD]
[TD]Georgia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]103.26[/TD]
[TD]Missouri
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]102.46[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]101.59[/TD]
[TD]USC
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100.34[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.88[/TD]
[TD]Louisville
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]99.12[/TD]
[TD]BYU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.76[/TD]
[TD]Texas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]98.21[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.62[/TD]
[TD]Arizona
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.43[/TD]
[TD]Georgia Tech
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.19[/TD]
[TD]Kansas State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.07[/TD]
[TD]Oregon State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.62[/TD]
[TD]Bowling Green
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.27[/TD]
[TD]Michigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.18[/TD]
[TD]Virginia Tech
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.13[/TD]
[TD]Fresno State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.04[/TD]
[TD]Iowa
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]95.07[/TD]
[TD]Miami-FL
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]94.83[/TD]
[TD]Boise State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]94.62[/TD]
[TD]UCF
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]94.44[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]94.18[/TD]
[TD]Utah State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.72[/TD]
[TD]North Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.59[/TD]
[TD]Nebraska
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.45[/TD]
[TD]Vanderbilt
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.40[/TD]
[TD]Northern Illinois
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.15[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.92[/TD]
[TD]TCU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.84[/TD]
[TD]WashingtonState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.79[/TD]
[TD]Duke
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.59[/TD]
[TD]Penn State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.43[/TD]
[TD]Utah
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.02[/TD]
[TD]Texas Tech
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]91.93[/TD]
[TD]Houston
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]91.35[/TD]
[TD]Florida
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]91.22[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]90.96[/TD]
[TD]East Carolina
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]90.13[/TD]
[TD]Northwestern
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.97[/TD]
[TD]Marshall
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.26[/TD]
[TD]Rice
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.68[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.44[/TD]
[TD]Boston College
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.42[/TD]
[TD]Ball State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.16[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.07[/TD]
[TD]Syracuse
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]87.35[/TD]
[TD]Maryland
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]87.21[/TD]
[TD]Navy
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]87.10[/TD]
[TD]North Texas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]86.82[/TD]
[TD]Indiana
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]86.60[/TD]
[TD]Colorado State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]86.10[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]85.63[/TD]
[TD]Toledo
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.67[/TD]
[TD]San Jose State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.28[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.15[/TD]
[TD]San Diego State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]83.33[/TD]
[TD]West Virginia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.41[/TD]
[TD]UTSA
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.16[/TD]
[TD]Iowa State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.15[/TD]
[TD]Wake Forest
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.89[/TD]
[TD]UNLV
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.73[/TD]
[TD]SMU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.65[/TD]
[TD]FAU
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.62[/TD]
[TD]MiddleTennessee
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.37[/TD]
[TD]Rutgers
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.92[/TD]
[TD]Illinois
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.86[/TD]
[TD]WesternKentucky
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.62[/TD]
[TD]Tulane
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.36[/TD]
[TD]Nevada
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.18[/TD]
[TD]ULL
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]80.12[/TD]
[TD]North Carolina St
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.78[/TD]
[TD]Colorado
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.73[/TD]
[TD]Virginia
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.23[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.73[/TD]
[TD]Kent State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.93[/TD]
[TD]South Alabama
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.85[/TD]
[TD]Connecticut
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.65[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.96[/TD]
[TD]Temple
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.69[/TD]
[TD]California
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.38[/TD]
[TD]Ohio
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.10[/TD]
[TD]Memphis
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.45[/TD]
[TD]Tulsa
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.11[/TD]
[TD]Troy
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.75[/TD]
[TD]Central Michigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.72[/TD]
[TD]ULM
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.51[/TD]
[TD]Kansas
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.11[/TD]
[TD]Wyoming
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.89[/TD]
[TD]Hawaii
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.64[/TD]
[TD]Akron
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.57[/TD]
[TD]USF
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]71.61[/TD]
[TD]Purdue
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]71.58[/TD]
[TD]Army
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.70[/TD]
[TD]New Mexico
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]68.83[/TD]
[TD]Texas State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.79[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Tech
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.27[/TD]
[TD]Air Force
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.34[/TD]
[TD]UAB
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]65.56[/TD]
[TD]WesternMichigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.72[/TD]
[TD]UTEP
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.39[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.22[/TD]
[TD]So Mississippi
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.42[/TD]
[TD]New MexicoState
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]59.07[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.79[/TD]
[TD]Idaho
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.03[/TD]
[TD]Miami-OH
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.02[/TD]
[TD]Georgia State
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.38[/TD]
[TD]FIU
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


:cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

since i brought it up, and because there are a few good sources out there, i'm gonna use GBE's SOS #s from this point forward (vs sagarin or anyone else) when posting write-ups. i linked some capping tools above, but will paste the GBE SOS #s below as well.


[TABLE="class: ratingsBlock"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Purdue[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.09799
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.12938
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Virginia[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.13039
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Mississippi St.[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.17808
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Utah[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.19958
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Arizona State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.20988
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]7[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Georgia[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.21858
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]California[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.22066
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Indiana[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.22096
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Florida[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.24842
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.29933
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Stanford[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.32872
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]13[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.33004
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]14[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Mississippi[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.33748
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]15[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Arkansas[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.35610
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Auburn[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.37483
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]17[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.37676
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]18[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Texas A&M[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.38453
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Washington State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.44782
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Virginia Tech[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.46826
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.49305
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Missouri[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.51151
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]23[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Wake Forest[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.51551
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]24[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]North Carolina[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.54087
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]25[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]South Florida[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.56505
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]26[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]UCLA[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.58429
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]27[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]N.C. State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.58835
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]28[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]TCU[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.62994
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]29[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Arizona[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.63605
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]30[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Penn State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.64010
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]31[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Washington[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.64153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]32[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Georgia Tech[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.64521
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]33[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Iowa[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.64757
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]34[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Iowa State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.65943
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]35[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Kansas[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.66058
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]36[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]USC[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.66098
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]37[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]South Carolina[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.66178
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]38[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Northwestern[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.66654
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]39[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Minnesota[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.66929
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]40[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Syracuse[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.67516
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]41[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]BYU[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.69933
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Tulsa[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.70558
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]43[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Nevada[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.71435
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]44[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Illinois[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.71809
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]45[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Texas[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.71879
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]46[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Idaho[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.74299
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]47[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Hawaii[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.78562
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]48[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Oklahoma[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.79567
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]49[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Colorado[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.79832
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]50[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Oregon State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.84022
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]51[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]San Jose State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.84516
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]52[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Akron[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.85164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]53[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Memphis[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.87966
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]54[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Toledo[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.88586
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]55[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]LSU[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.89620
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]56[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Western Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.90284
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]57[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Eastern Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.91252
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]58[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Oklahoma State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.92832
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]59[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Boston College[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.94421
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]60[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Houston[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.95170
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]61[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Texas Tech[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.95575
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]62[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Wisconsin[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.95819
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]63[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Kent State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.96627
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
[TABLE="class: ratingsBlock"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]64
[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]La Monroe[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.97883
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]65[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]West Virginia[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.98363
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]66[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Baylor[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.99034
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]67[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Clemson[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]5.99618
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]68[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Duke[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.00115
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]69[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Miami (FL)[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.02102
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]70[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]UAB[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.02432
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]71[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Kansas State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.04032
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]72[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.04049
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]73[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.06721
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]74[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Connecticut[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.07977
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]75[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Miami (OH)[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.08900
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]76[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Alabama[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.09085
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]77[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]UT-San Antonio[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.09389
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]78[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Nebraska[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.11273
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]79[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]New Mexico State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.12482
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]80[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Florida Atlantic[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.18247
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]81[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Oregon[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.19769
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]82[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Temple[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.19883
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]83[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Florida State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.22889
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]84[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]New Mexico[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.23612
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]85[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Southern Miss[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.24041
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]86[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Michigan State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.26340
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]87[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Rutgers[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.28272
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]88[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Arkansas State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.30588
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]89[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Florida International[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.30600
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]90[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Navy[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.30863
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]91[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Air Force[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.32237
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]92[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Tulane[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.32487
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]93[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Vanderbilt[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.33010
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]94[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Troy[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.33698
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]95[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Utah State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.34481
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]96[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]North Texas[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.39110
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]97[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Georgia State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.39759
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]98[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]UTEP[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.41703
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]99[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]SMU[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.43658
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]100[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]South Alabama[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.44485
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]101[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Maryland[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.50825
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]102[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]UNLV[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.51572
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]103[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Boise State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.55359
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]104[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Central Florida[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.57021
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]105[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Ohio[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.58449
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]106[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]San Diego State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.58956
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]107[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Rice[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.59315
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]108[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Wyoming[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.76738
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]109[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Buffalo[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.89669
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]110[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Central Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.96159
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]111[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Marshall[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]6.97777
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]112[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Western Kentucky[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.00616
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]113[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Bowling Green[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.03134
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]114[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]La Lafayette[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.06303
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]115[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Fresno State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.06606
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]116[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Army[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.09216
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]117[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Middle Tenn. St.[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.16539
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]118[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Texas State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.18451
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]119[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]East Carolina[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.18545
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]120[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Louisville[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.20806
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]121[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Colorado State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.34701
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]122[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Northern Illinois[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.42142
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]123[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Ball State[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.58540
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]124[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Louisiana Tech[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]7.79859
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: rank"]125[/TD]
[TD="class: team"]Cincinnati[/TD]
[TD="class: rating"]8.11449
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


there are quite a few bowl teams that enjoyed POS schedules.

 

[M.W.]

Go get 'em Yanks.
When 5dimes had the wazzou line at -10 I was bummed bc I thought it was pretty spot on and shocked they had them favored so high, then when Vegas came out with -3.5 I was much happier

I saw it at 5Dimes at -12, and that seemed reasonable. Can anyone explain what the books are thinking with 3.5?

 

[captbunch18]

Yanks...can you explain the SOS for me. Does the number to the right of the team matter, other than to rank the teams SOS?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I saw it at 5Dimes at -12, and that seemed reasonable. Can anyone explain what the books are thinking with 3.5?

one factor is that colly st will (or should) be much more at home (or comfortable) in new mexico. they just played down there a few weeks back...where i doubt wazzou players have ever been to the state.

personally, my #s make the line 6 points...even if i think wash st will win by double digits. but take collegefootballpoll, as one example, where their computers make colly st almost a 3 pt fav in the game.

anyways, obviously that early line at dimes was corrected asap. maybe the pendulum swung back to a bit of an over-correction to get down to 3.5?

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Yanks...can you explain the SOS for me. Does the number to the right of the team matter, other than to rank the teams SOS?

No, Capt, those #s to the right don't matter. (I couldn't keep them from copy/pasting over though.) It's just the end result of the formula they use (came up with) for SOS. You can read what constitutes their formula here...
http://www.gberatings.com/about/

I like what they've done though. It's as good a strength as schedule ranking as any that are out there. (Though I'd like to see Steele update his SOS #s for the post-season too.)

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

btw, as i'm sure everyone saw today, the totals came out. it's square, but i'm leaning pretty hard to the beaver/bronco over in hawaii on xmas eve.

also not looking for many points to be scored between my bruins and the hokies on new year's eve. speaking of that, considering that the dogs historically have all the success when it comes to the sun bowl, i'm disappointed in the placement.

 

[tru]

John quick glance at ur numbers, when u make a play based on ur numbers what size variance do u need to have from ur line to vegas line to make a play? Cause jus a quick look would have u on fsu, okie light an a few others wit me. GL again this bowl season

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

John quick glance at ur numbers, when u make a play based on ur numbers what size variance do u need to have from ur line to vegas line to make a play? Cause jus a quick look would have u on fsu, okie light an a few others wit me. GL again this bowl season

I look for anything with a variance of 3 pts or more, at least when I make a play based solely (or for the most part) on my numbers.

But tbh, my #s are just a starting point (capping-wise) the large majority of the time. And that works both ways. Plenty of examples where I've gone against my #s this year, including a few times with UCLA. Just like I can remember posting leans off my #s, but laying off the plays...like the week where Texas upset Oklahoma, and Baylor didn't cover on the road vs Kansas St. Should've listened harder to my numbers that week, lol.

But you know me...I like situations, various match-up issues, etc...so like I said, most of the time, these #s are just a foundation for me to cap a game.


As for the bowls...
So far, there are only 4 games with a variance of 3 points or more between my #s and the lines.

Michigan = 3
(i made it KSt -1, but the line is -4 pts)
Oklahoma = 3.5
(i made it Bama -11, but the line is -14.5 pts)
Oklahoma St = 4.5
(i made it Okie Lite -3.5, but the line is Mizzou -1 pt)
FSU = 3
(i made it FSU -12, but the line is -9 pts)

fwiw, there are a couple bowl games where i gave the team playing in-state some credit (not full HFA) for home field as well.

anyhow, i can see myself possibly on michigan. i won't go against Bama though. need to look much deeper at okie lite/mizzou, as well as fsu/aubbie. but right now, i lean slightly to okie lite and fsu, tbh...as well as the over in the NC game.

totally get why auburn's a sexy ass dog. they've definitely got luck on their side, having deserved losses to both bama and jorga down the stretch. but on the flip side, there's nothing like a month of time off to kill momentum.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

jumping ahead a few games for my 2nd play of the bowl season...

Hawaii Bowl, 12/24
Oregon St/Boise St over 65 for 1

with the game being in Hawaii, and with Peterson already gone, don't think i've got much more to worry about in terms of changing variables for this match-up. sure, a suspension or two could end up biting me in the ass...but i'll take that chance.
anyhow, the hawaii bowl used to be a very nice bowl for overs back in the day (thru most of the 2000s)...and see no reason why this one won't do some of those shootouts of year's past justice, considering these two squads.

no big write-up for this one...just some pertinent numbers, imo:
the oregon st offense...34.5 ppg, #3 passing offense, #25 total offense.
the boise st defense...#112 in pass efficiency defense, #91 pass defense, #73 total defense.
the boise st offense...38.8 ppg, #32 rush offense, #31 pass offense, #24 total offense.
the oregon st defense...32.1 ppg, 5.2 yards per rush allowed, #91 rush defense, #74 pass defense, #94 total defense.

in other words, considering the defenses, it looks like a shootout. Mannion to Cooks all day long...plus his other options are getting healthier...not to mention quite a few touches by Woods outta the backfield. Boise can't stop the pass, despite being 103rd in SOS...so the Beavs should have a field day thru the air. conversely, damn near everyone puts up a 100+ yd rusher against the Beavs. and with the Broncos getting healthier at key positions on offense, and considering the balance to their attack, they should have their fair share of success moving the ball as well.
even with the coaching change in Boise, just see this game getting into the 70s rather comfortably...as both defenses have been porous. might add a small play on the Beavs as well, if it stays at a FG or less. anyhow, the total opened at 65.5 pts, dipped a tad...but i'd expect it only to rise the closer we get. like i suggested when mentioning the lean the other day, it's a square play...but that said, it is what it is...so lets hope for some xmas eve excitement outta the rainbow state.

 

[tru]

I look for anything with a variance of 3 pts or more, at least when I make a play based solely (or for the most part) on my numbers.

But tbh, my #s are just a starting point (capping-wise) the large majority of the time. And that works both ways. Plenty of examples where I've gone against my #s this year, including a few times with UCLA. Just like I can remember posting leans off my #s, but laying off the plays...like the week where Texas upset Oklahoma, and Baylor didn't cover on the road vs Kansas St. Should've listened harder to my numbers that week, lol.

But you know me...I like situations, various match-up issues, etc...so like I said, most of the time, these #s are just a foundation for me to cap a game.


As for the bowls...
So far, there are only 4 games with a variance of 3 points or more between my #s and the lines.

Michigan = 3
(i made it KSt -1, but the line is -4 pts)
Oklahoma = 3.5
(i made it Bama -11, but the line is -14.5 pts)
Oklahoma St = 4.5
(i made it Okie Lite -3.5, but the line is Mizzou -1 pt)
FSU = 3
(i made it FSU -12, but the line is -9 pts)

fwiw, there are a couple bowl games where i gave the team playing in-state some credit (not full HFA) for home field as well.

anyhow, i can see myself possibly on michigan. i won't go against Bama though. need to look much deeper at okie lite/mizzou, as well as fsu/aubbie. but right now, i lean slightly to okie lite and fsu, tbh...as well as the over in the NC game.

totally get why auburn's a sexy ass dog. they've definitely got luck on their side, having deserved losses to both bama and jorga down the stretch. but on the flip side, there's nothing like a month of time off to kill momentum.

:shake:

My my numbers also agree wit ur leans on okie, okie light, fsu. I hit fsu at 8. Haven't hit okie light yet, waitin on that, and I don't know if I wanna be against bama they have made some cash for me all season.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

forgot to mention...
both Boise (under Petersen) and Oregon St (under Riley) are 5-2 in bowls. in terms of the side in this game, it's hard to figure out exactly how the coaching change will effect the Broncos as a whole. and from the Beavers side, other than the rivalry game against the Ducks, they really limped down the stretch...even appearing to 'roll over' at times, which was a surprise.
Boise's won their L4 bowl games, the last two against Arizona St and Washington in Las Vegas...where Oregon St has lost their L2 bowl games, in '09 to BYU in Las Vegas and in '12 to Texas at the Alamo.
So that's kinda why I haven't decided on a side in this game yet, if at all. The over was/is simply much more appealing.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

:shake:

My my numbers also agree wit ur leans on okie, okie light, fsu. I hit fsu at 8. Haven't hit okie light yet, waitin on that, and I don't know if I wanna be against bama they have made some cash for me all season.

we're seeing things similarly then. :cheers:

yeah, I think Bama is very capable of making a statement with this bowl game...and wouldn't wanna be on the other side of that.
as for okie lite and fsu...might as well see where the lines go. if mizzou keeps falling, we could see even less value there. (this was one i wish i would've looked more at earlier.)

 

[tru]

I made fsu by my numbers -15. Our numbers look pretty close. I go wit 4 points variance, seems to work for god and work for Kyle for many years so I jus copy that. Yeah looks like mizzou opened at pick an saw it went to -1.5 an now is -1, jus gonna wait it out. Some money to be made in fcs playoffs, if u have time look those over also

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

I made fsu by my numbers -15. Our numbers look pretty close. I go wit 4 points variance, seems to work for god and work for Kyle for many years so I jus copy that. Yeah looks like mizzou opened at pick an saw it went to -1.5 an now is -1, jus gonna wait it out. Some money to be made in fcs playoffs, if u have time look those over also

don't have time, or experience, for/with fcs. but i'm sure you guys will clean up there.

i had the LV opener as Mizzou -3, but might've written it down wrong. not sure about the offshores, as i missed the openers there. hopefully it rises though...as a +3 for okie lite would be sweet.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

some news outta fresno. looks like they'll be focused.

- Carr is 134 yards and 2 TDs from being the fifth player in bowl subdivision history to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns in a year.
- Fresno St is 176 yards away from the school season record of 7,022 set in 2001.

and (copy/paste)...

Retro look for bowl
Fresno State will wear white jerseys and pants and -- in honor of the 1992 team that beat USC in the Freedom Bowl -- throwback red helmets with "Bulldogs" in script across the side for the bowl game.
"I actually had a suggestion off of Twitter, where someone suggested wearing all white and the throwback helmets and I thought, hey, that's a great idea going back to '92," coach Tim DeRuyter said.
"I asked (team captains) Derek and Derron and they thought it was a great suggestion as well and that's what we're going with. It's a tip of the cap to the guys that played in '92 that were able to beat USC and maybe that combination gave them luck. We'll see if it gives us luck."

-------------------------------------------


but...

Trends

• Fresno State 1-5 ATS in its past six bowl games.
• USC is 7-2 ATS in its past nine bowl games.
• The Bulldogs were 11-1 straight up this season but just 5-7 ATS.

"Teams are forced to throw on you when behind, so big passing numbers are to be anticipated. Yet the Bulldogs' defense surrendered an average of 147.7 rushing yards per game in 2013, suggesting it is susceptible to another breakout running back performance a la Reggie Bush.

Fresno's sole BCS-busting loss this year was in fact a shootout, coming at the hands of 6-6 San Jose State. The Spartans commitment to handing the ball off (45 rushes for 159 yards) caused Fresno State to divide its attention, resulting in a brilliant stat line for San Jose State quarterback David Fales: 37-of-45, 547 YDS, 6 TDs, 0 INTs.
USC doesn't boast that same top-tier passing offense, so its ground attack will have to suffice and open up opportunities to push the ball downfield off play-action.
What running the ball will do for the Trojans first and foremost is secure the time-of-possession battle. It keeps Derek Carr off the field, rests Clancy Pendergast's relentless but thin front seven enough for them to continue to rack up big sack and turnover numbers and allows interim head coach Clay Helton to regulate tempo and impose his game plan. San Jose State controlled 39:23 of the clock in their upset win, which is nearly identical to how long USC kept the pigskin away from quarterback Sean Mannion in its 31-14 win over Oregon State."

​

^^ if USC wants to be there/play, Fresno will not be able to stop the Trojan's running game. but that's the question. it sure seems like Fresno St will show up. will USC do the same? especially if "auditioning" for jobs next year?

Allen, Madden, Redd, etc...some stud RBs, one always fresh, for Fresno to attempt to contain.

and considering the Trojan's sometimes shaky pass defense, the over seems to be in play here as well.

anyhow, USC resumes practice this Saturday...so hoping to get a better feel for their motivation this coming week. in Nelson Agholor, they've got by far the best raw athlete on the field.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

^^ still haven't played anything in the Las Vegas Bowl. still trying to get a feel on possible motivation. so here's some more on the Fresno St/USC match-up...

Both teams were embarrassed in their bowl games last year. Fresno is 0-4 ATS in their L4 bowls, where USC is 4-1 ATS in their L5 bowls.

USC has a large advantage in SOS (#36 to #115), and a large advantage in the trenches...not to mention in overall talent/athleticism. But what do you make of having 3 "head coaches" in one (down & up & down) season? Will they show up in an audition for Sark? Will they how some Trojan pride after the 2012 bowl loss to GT?

Fresno has a large advantage at QB...and I guess coaching, by default...yet that's the extent of it. But will they be completely invested? Typically, the BCS buster that falls flat...missing out on the buster's goal late in the season...is fade material come bowl game. And what about Carr? As a senior, coming off a great year, will he simply look to "survive" the bowl game and make it to the draft in one piece?

Lots of questions on both sides, imho. No, this isn't the bowl game USC dreamed of before the season. But considering their start, and Kiffin getting the axe, maybe the goals/aspirations changed along the way. Conversely, Fresno's gotta be just as disappointed...if not more so...by being in this LV Bowl. They were one game away (vs SJST) from playing in a BCS bowl in all likelihood...and it slipped thru their fingers thx to poor defense.

In any case, with so many questions, i think all that stuff is a wash...which is why I'm still leaning towards USC. Just would like to hear/read some more on their mindset, if possible.

As for the match-up...
Fresno's not a good running team at #70. USC's a great run defense team at #19. Fresno's the #1 passing offense in the country though. Where USC is either #13 or #21 in pass efficiency defense, depending on the source (steele or ncaa).
USC's #58 in rushing offense, and #77 is passing offense. Fresno is #40 in rush defense, despite getting gashed by SJST, and # 84 or #86 in pass efficiency defense.
USC is +6 in TO margin (34th), and Fresno is +1 in TO margin (tied for 54th).

But like I said in the other post...if USC truly comes to play, and exerts themselves in the trenches...despite the big disparity at the QB position...they will cover this game easily. Just trying to figure out if that'll be the case, or not.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

making sure everything is ready for Christmas with my family/kids is quickly becoming the #1 priority...so i'm trying to get all my plays in asap, up to the 12/26 bowls.
as a result, a few small additions...

Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/21
Buffalo ML (-105) for 1/2

New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
Tulane ML (-110) for 1/2

St Petersburg Bowl, 12/23
ECU(-7) to Ohio/ECU ov55 for .77 to win .70

small, action plays...but will come back in a bit (later tonight) with my write-ups.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/21
Buffalo ML (-105) for 1/2

New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
Tulane ML (-110) for 1/2

St Petersburg Bowl, 12/23
ECU(-7) to Ohio/ECU ov55 for .77 to win .70

small, action plays...but will come back in a bit (later tonight) with my write-ups.

My PR #s made Buffalo a 2 pt favorite here. SOS is basically a wash, as both teams had weak ass schedules. So why the small play on Buffalo?
First, even though SDST is familiar playing in Boise, SDST comes from one of the most fair-weathered cities in the country...and I don't believe they're ready for the cold, with possible snow showers on game day. They have the better QB. But any weather/cold will obviously be in Buffalo's favor, and help negate that QB advantage.
Second, Rocky Long is 1-6 bowling in his career, and 0-2 the L2 years with the Aztecs. Conversely, this is Buffalo's 2nd bowl game ever...having last gone bowling in 2008. In other words, I'm guessing they'll be motivated here.
Buffalo's got the better running game, where SDST has the better passing game. However, Buffalo's ok in pass defense...just like SDST is ok in run defense. The most glaring statistical difference between the teams though is turnover margin. Buffalo creates them, and sits at +15 (tied for 4th in cfb) for the season. Conversely, SDST gives them up...sitting at -12 on the season (tied for 118th in cfb).
So considering the weather, the TO margins, and so forth...not to mention that the weakest unit on the field at any given time in this match-up would be the Aztec pass defense...I had to give the slight edge (in motivation too) to the cold-weather (MAC) team playing in it's 2nd bowl game ever...on the blue turf of Boise. So a 1/2 unit play here.



My PR #s made Tulane a 1/2 pt favorite here. SOS is basically a wash here too, as both teams had weak ass schedules...just a bit more so in ULL's case. So why the small play on Tulane?
It's not like ULL has far to travel, but this is in Tulane's back yard. ULL's been in the L2 New Orleans Bowls, and won them both...so imo it's kinda been there, done that. Tulane though hasn't gone bowling since 2002...11 years ago...so I gotta believe, with somewhat of a HFA in play, they'll be the more motivated team in this one. Also, tbh, I'm hoping that Broadway's injury limits him in this game. Without him, the ULL offense is extremely limited. So hopefully if he plays, it won't be at 100%.
The ULL rush offense is good at #26 overall, but the Tulane rush defense is very good too at #16 overall. The ULL pass offense with Broadway is #78 overall...without him, it'll be much worse...and the Tulane pass efficiency defense is either #43 or #23 depending on the source (between steele and ncaa). The problem is that Tulane's offense is pretty brutal. ULL's rush defense is average, but their pass defense is fairly poor...so hopefully Montana will bowl like he finished the season, which was halfway decent the L4 games.
Lastly, turnover margin is a significant stat/discrepancy in this game as well. Tulane is tied for 9th in cfb at +12 for the year...where ULL has a balanced ledger, sitting even, which is tied for 60th in cfb for the year.
Anyhow, all that added up to another 1/2 unit play...backing the Conference USA team over the Sun Belt in New Orleans.


Lastly, the St Petersburg Bowl teaser. My PR #s made ECU a 14.5 pt favorite here, but I just felt that was too much to lay...considering the 13.5 pt spread. (And that probably has something to do with the way Marshall carved them up the other week.) Before that Marshall game though, ECU was on a roll. Just like before the season finale against UMass, Ohio was in a complete tailspin. How they got to go bowling over Toledo is a shame, but that's another story.
Ohio is 2-5 bowling, having won their L2...and Solich is 2-3 bowling at Ohio. Flip side...ECU hasn't won a bowl since 2007, losing their L4 times. To be short, just more reasons why i wanted to tease this spread down to one score.
Anyhow, both teams have crap SOS's...and there's not a big difference in TO margins here, even though it is +4 in ECU's favor. Neither team is good at running the ball. Both teams have solid QBs though. ECU is #10 is passing offense, where Ohio is #58. Ohio's rush defense is #78, and their pass efficiency defense is either #88 or #82 depending on the source. ECU's rush defense is #15, and their pass efficiency defense is either #46 or #43 depending on the same two sources. Bottom line though, ECU's got the better all around defense in this match-up.
Long story, short...wasn't comfortable laying basically 2 TDs here...and had no interest in backing Ohio...so teased ECU to 1 TD with the over. ECU should get theirs, and reach the low 40s...so just need Tettleton/Ohio to contribute enough on their side, moving past that horrific 3 game stretch in November where they couldn't do shit offensively.

(btw, Marshall's a common opponent. but talk about 2 misleading scores...)

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

from the Fresno Bee

http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/12/15/3669688/bulldogs-will-face-a-stout-d-in.html

For Hawaii, it was a lot of disguise in the secondary. USC flustered an inexperienced quarterback in Taylor Graham, who was in his first start after sitting out a year as a transfer. "They were fooling him with the coverage a little bit," coach Norm Chow said afterward.

For Oregon State, it was pressure up front. The Trojans got a few hits on Sean Mannion, which forced some uncharacteristic mistakes by the junior quarterback, who was intercepted three times, twice in USC territory. "Obviously," he said afterward, "I made a few mistakes."
For Cal and Washington State, it was a lot of the same.
Fresno State and quarterback Derek Carr hope to have different things to talk about after the Dec. 21 Las Vegas Bowl, but the Bulldogs' prolific passing offense and the Trojans' pass defense makes for an intriguing matchup.
The Bulldogs will be the fifth team that USC has played this season that is ranked in the top eight in the bowl subdivision in passing attempts, and the first four did not fare well.

Washington State, which led the nation with 698 passing attempts and was fourth in passing offense with 364.5 yards per game, had only 215 passing yards against USC. The Cougars' Connor Halliday completed 26 of 38 passes and was picked off twice while taking four sacks.
Cal, which is tied for third in passing attempts with Fresno State and is 11th in passing with 329.8 yards per game, had some success but much of it came in the second half with USC well ahead. It led 41-14.
Oregon State, sixth in the nation with 591 passing attempts and third with 382.1 passing yards per game, had 277 passing yards against the Trojans. Mannion hit only 26 of 45 throws (57.8%).
And Hawaii, tied for seventh with 519 passing attempts and 19th in passing offense with 301.4 passing yards per game, saw Graham throw four interceptions and take seven sacks.
Only the Cougars were able to come away with a victory, winning 10-7.
The four teams combined to complete 59.3% of their passes (105 of 177) for an average of 248.3 yards with five touchdowns and nine interceptions while taking 15 sacks.

A limited number of Trojans will suit up
Due to NCAA scholarship restrictions and injuries, USC will have fewer than 50 recruited scholarship players available for the Las Vegas Bowl.
In the second year of a three-year NCAA sanction, the Trojans are limited to 75 scholarship players per year and no more than 15 incoming recruits per year, both 10 fewer than the NCAA maximum of 85 and 25.
USC started the year with 74 players on scholarship, including four walk-ons who were awarded scholarships at the end of fall camp.
The Trojans also are without 15 players due to injuries, are redshirting five true freshmen and have one player sitting out under NCAA transfer rules.
In their last game, the Trojans played only two substitutes on defense and one of them was on the field for only the final two plays of a 35-14 loss to UCLA.
Also …
The Bulldogs' top three receivers — Davante Adams, Josh Harper and Isaiah Burse — all have had a game this season with 15 or more receptions. No teams going back to 2000 can match that.
Burse had 17 receptions for 132 yards and one touchdown against Utah State when Fresno State won the Mountain West title. Harper had 17 receptions for 253 yards and two touchdowns in a victory over Nevada. Adams had 16 catches for 185 yards and three touchdowns in a victory at Idaho.
Only one team has had as many as two receivers with 15 or more receptions in a game — Eastern Michigan in 2008.
The Trojans are 27-1-1 against teams that are now in the Mountain West, not including two wins that were vacated due to NCAA penalties. Their last loss came against Fresno State in 1992.

With Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor, USC has two outside receivers who can make plays down the field. But the Trojans have only 37 explosive pass plays of 20 yards or more, tied for 64th in the nation.
Fresno State leads the nation with 73 and has eight players with a reception of at least 20 yards — Adams, Harper, Burse, tight end Marcel Jensen, slot receiver Greg Watson, receiver Aaron Peck and running backs Josh Quezada and Marteze Waller.
Las Vegas Bowl

No. 21 FRESNO STATE vs. USC
Vitals: 12:30 p.m. Saturday at Sam Boyd Stadium
Records: Bulldogs 11-1, Trojans 9-4
TV: KFSN (Ch. 30.1)
Radio: KFIG (AM 940); KALZ (FM 96.7); KRZR (AM 1400); KGST (AM 1600)
Line: USC -6
History: Series tied 1-1

Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2013/12/15/3669688/bulldogs-will-face-a-stout-d-in.html#storylink=cpy
​

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

from the Daily News

http://www.dailynews.com/sports/201...r-mood-heading-to-las-vegas-bowl-than-el-paso

USC tried to put a positive spin on last year’s trip to the Sun Bowl, but the Trojans admitted Sunday the team’s morale is much higher entering this week’s Las Vegas Bowl.

“Last year, not everyone was pleased with the Sun Bowl after thinking they were going to win the national championship,” wide receiver Marqise Lee said.
That was echoed by quarterback Cody Kessler, who was the backup quarterback entering the Sun Bowl.
“Guys weren’t really into it, you could tell,” he said.

Kessler said the Trojans are invigorated for the trip to Las Vegas, even though the conventional wisdom is Fresno State will be more motivated.

“It means a lot more to this team the way we’ve come together,” Kessler said. “We have an opportunity to do something great. These guys have put so much into this team. It’s a big deal. Like Coach O (Ed Orgeron) said, there’s only 22 teams or something that already have 10 wins.
“We’re not going there to party or do other things. It’s a business trip for us.”

and...

USC has sold approximately 5,000 tickets and Fresno State 7,000, according to Las Vegas associate executive director John Saccenti. Each school must sell 11,000 tickets. The capacity of Sam Boyd Stadium is 40,000.


^^ the crowd will be damn near equal, but that's sad.

still not ready to commit, but leaning a bit more to USC.
interesting that they're still showing love for Coach O though, based upon that comment.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

i've posted enough about the Las Vegas Bowl, but still no play there. wasn't happy seeing the line creep up today either.

anyhow, moving forward, 2 more (smallish) additions to get my thru the 26th...

Little Caesar's Bowl, 12/26
Pittsburgh (+5) @ -105 for 1/2

Poinsettia Bowl, 12/26
Utah St (+2.5) @ -110 for .7

what can i say...other than it's rarely a bad idea to fade the MAC after xmas, lol.

anyhow, once i make up my mind and add the LV Bowl, the first 8 bowl games will be good to go. in other news...the wazzou line crept up as well today. so did tulane on the rumor that broadway was downgraded to doubtful, i'm assuming.



besides fading the MAC post-Christmas though, lemme throw together a couple (more serious) quickie write-ups for these two additions:

my PR #s made BG an 8 pt favorite over Pitt. BG is a basically better than Pitt across the board, at least numbers-wise, tbh. better rush offense, better pass offense, better rush defense, better pass efficiency defense, better turnover margin, and so forth. yet i made a small play on the dog here. why?
tbh, it comes down to two reasons. one is that BG obviously lost their head coach, as well as some of their other coaches. gotta believe that'll hurt, and have an effect on their motivation. and two, there's a big disparity in the strength of schedules (Pitt = 21 & BG = 113)...which had an effect on some of those numbers/stats in BG's favor.
also, as a side note, i never did trust the 5 or 5.5 pt spreads...if trust is the right word. for whatever reason, when i see those lines, a red flag raises in my mind.
anyhow, that's the gist of it though...a small play on the dog...courtesy of the variance in SOS, as well as the coaching losses BG just went thru. think pitt will be motivated, and BG won't be. in terms of history...BG's lost their L3 bowls...and Clawson was 0-2 bowling before he bailed. Pitt has lost their L2 bowls as well, and Chryst is 0-1 bowling at Pitt...but the cherry was popped last year, and they're attempting to build a program. this would be a good feather in the cap, if they can pull it off.

my PR #s made USU a 1 pt favorite over NIU. a fair variance, but just mentioning it. NIU is 4-4 bowling all time, having lost LY to FSU...so Carey is 0-1 bowling. USU is a measly 2-5 bowling, but still off a win in their bowl LY...and this is Wells 1st time/virgin bowl.
the SOS isn't all that different...95 for USU to 122 for NIU...fwiw. but this play also comes down to two main factors in my mind. first, which is the same thing i mentioned when talking about fresno st vs usc earlier...the "BCS buster" that failed late in the season, and ends up in a much lessor bowl than hoped for, typically fails in that bowl. they had their hearts set on something much bigger, only to have it slip away...so it's obviously a disappointment to some extent. second, speaking of NIU's loss, this game (at least defensively for USU) isn't all that different than the BG game. BG has a bit better pass efficiency defense than USU, but USU has the better rushing defense...which is really NIU's strength offensively.
the #4 rushing offense vs the #10 rushing defense...a defense that is better than BG's defense, yet was given a decent blueprint on how to contain and beat NIU & Lynch. and that's what it's all about. NIU/Lynch isn't a big threat throwing the ball, as the #72 pass offense...but even so, USU can handle when the play action comes up with the #19 pass efficiency defense. (and fwiw, the TO margins are close enough to not be a factor either...like the SOS's.)
anyhow, without keeton, USU doesn't have the QB to exploit and embarrass NIU's defense the same way that BG did...so it will be a much closer game, as the Aggie offense is definitely nothing to write home about. that said, i think they can do enough to win SU...since i see their defense limiting Lynch/NIU like BG did...possibly even a bit better than BG did.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

7 plays to date...and 8 write-ups. I better get some good karma for that...you know, to paraphrase BM, a little something for the effort.

 

[Play2win]

BOL on the Bowls

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

BOL on the Bowls

thank you, play. same to you, bud. :shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

ok...after looking at the fresno/usc match-up for too many parts of too many days, i'm still not totally sold. about all i'm sure of is that the bulldogs are enjoying themselves at the Hard Rock, while the Trojans are really enjoying themselves at Mandalay Bay. other than that, i'm getting some conflicting signals...and not totally able to buy into the stronger team showing up, &/or being in peak form. so on the chance that indeed they are prepared/ready, just a small addition for now...

Las Vegas Bowl, 12/21
USC (-6) @ -110 for 1/2

may add to this later...or if still a bit conflicted, will just let it be. anyways, i've already written a few posts on the game...so no need to regurgitate my take w/ another write-up. but added the small play now in case there's the typical late-USC money tonight/tomorrow that'll drive this up to 7 pts again.


good luck. and if i'm not around, Merry Christmas. :cheers:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

prolly shouldn't do this, as i'm copying/pasting from elsewhere...but in case anyone likes to read these things, Merry Christmas/Happy Bowling, here you go:

Power Sweep
http://www.mediafire.com/view/p3ljx4cg0r43k4w/powersweepbowls.pdf
Power Plays
http://www.mediafire.com/view/vuasw1faa8g8f6m/powerplaysbowls.pdf
Winning Points
http://www.mediafire.com/view/ayoey0l75rdyr41/Winning Points.pdf
Pointwise
http://www.mediafire.com/view/4vfrj5vxnr7crcx/Pointwise Wk#17.pdf
Playbook
http://www.playbook.com/pos86915/football/72413/newsletter.pdf
Gold Sheet
http://www.mediafire.com/view/cp0v9gb0dphbhux/Gold+Sheet+Week+17.pdf
Sports Reporter
http://www.thegoldphone.com/NEWSLETTERS/SPREPORTER17.pdf
Nelly's
http://www.nellysports.com/cart/download/10newsletter0.pdf
CKO
http://www.mediafire.com/view/25rlioyaq8auinb/CKO.pdf

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

^^ gotta luv the interwebs...

 

[dilaudid8]

It's bowl season again! One of the best times of the year, mixed around the holidays. Finished the '13 college football season at 93-76-3, 10.895 units to the good. Started the season on fire, had one terrible week (Wk 13), and too many .500 Saturdays in between...so it should've been much better. That said, no complaints. I really enjoyed the football season, honing my power ranking skills/#s throughout, and am now looking forward to another solid run thru the bowls. Should be involved again in just about every bowl game. Anyhow, as always, I will update this 1st post as I make plays during the bowl season...copying them below, of course, with write-ups whenever possible.


New Mexico Bowl, 12/21
Washington St (-3.5) @ -110 for 1

Las Vegas Bowl, 12/21
USC (-6) @ -110 for 1/2

Idaho Potato Bowl, 12/21
Buffalo ML (-105) for 1/2

New Orleans Bowl, 12/21
Tulane ML (-110) for 1/2

St Petersburg Bowl, 12/23
ECU(-7) to Ohio/ECU ov55 for .77 to win .70

Hawaii Bowl, 12/24
Oregon St/Boise St over 65 @ -110 for 1

Little Caesar's Bowl, 12/26
Pittsburgh (+5) @ -105 for 1/2

Poinsettia Bowl, 12/26
Utah St (+2.5) @ -110 for .7




Good luck this season, good bowling, and Happy Holidays!!! :cheers:

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR my brother bol

 

[Coverdatspred]

GL in the bowls my friend. Looks like we share the same plays for the most part on the first Saturday. Happy holidays.

 

[HUNT]

Gl yanks. Great info on usc.

 

[DaRaiders]

Yanks, thanks for all your info and insight all year.
BOL.

 

[bones]

thanks for all the effort and taking the time...its appreciated
best of luck:cheers:

 

[GoIrish!]

looks like we have the same card today....lets hold our breath and get lucky!

 

[bloodhound]

good thread, good thoughts

BOL this Bowl season my friend

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

added a bit more to the two Pac-12 bowls today...

Wash St TT over 34.5 @ -110 for 1/2

Agholor rec. yds over 78.5 @ +115 for 1/2

couldn't resist either add, tbh.


i thought that the steam that took Wazzou up to -6 would ruin a team total here...but since it came back to 4.5 this morning, combined with the total dropping a point, things just worked out. wrote a ton on the game...but bottom line for this addition, i obviously can't see Leach/Halliday & Co not getting 35+ here. tbh, got them much higher.

thought about adding a 1/2 unit to my USC play...but at 4.5 or 5, there wasn't the incentive. so checked out the props, and jumped this right away. i wrote &/or copied a few posts about this USC game...and mentioned that Agholor would be by far the most talented raw athlete on the field in this game. with Lee's issues, Agholor (w/out a decent QB, btw) has quickly established himself as a primary target at various points in the game. he's amazing on special teams...but he's so fuckin fast, with decent hands, that he's become a helluva receiver too.
he didn't do much vs UCLA, thankfully...but had 104 receiving yds vs Stanford...97 vs Utah on 6 passes...and even 73 vs the Beavs on 2 passes. that's all it takes with this kid though...a handful of catches, and let him run. and i've already documented Fresno St's pass defense. saying SJST/Fales exploited it is an understatement. bottom line though, there's no one on that defense who can keep up with Nelson. so if Kessler can simply get him the ball 5 or more times, this will be a piece of cake to reach.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

MERRY CHRISTMAS and HAPPY NEW YEAR my brother bol

Merry Christmas, my friend. :cheers:

GL in the bowls my friend. Looks like we share the same plays for the most part on the first Saturday. Happy holidays.

Hope we both start extremely well. Happy Holidays, brotha. :cheers:

Gl yanks. Great info on usc.

Thx, Hunt. Have a great Christmas w/ the family. :cheers:

Yanks, thanks for all your info and insight all year.
BOL.

Thank you, buddy. Hope it's a kick ass bowl season for you. :cheers:

thanks for all the effort and taking the time...its appreciated
best of luck:cheers:

Thx, Bones. GL today, bud. :cheers:

looks like we have the same card today....lets hold our breath and get lucky!

ha...you know it. Happy Holidays, Irish. :cheers:

good thread, good thoughts

BOL this Bowl season my friend

thanks...same to you, my friend...and Merry Christmas. :cheers: