WK 10 Thoughts

[E.T.G.]

Gimme a day or two to get this up to date. It wasn't a good week at all, lost both of my 3 unit plays, hit my only 1 unit play. Back to 2unit plays only, this time I mean it.



I was going to take another day off from looking at CFB but I have class 2morrow night so that would push me back to Wednesday.


Buffalo ML:

Lean to Buffalo right now, will see where this line goes and hit the ML if I decide to play it. Buffalo is 0-3 on the road (Mizz, CMU, Pitt) and they have to go on the road in the middle of the week which has been a disaster for road teams so right there I have 2 things working against me. However, I like this Buffalo team and think the comeback win against Army heading into the bye was a good thing for them because the WMU game previously was also an OT game and they lost . We all saw Ohio last week lead for 57 minutes of that game only to lose in the end to Temple in the final minutes. They have some speed on offense with the QB-RB, the passing is nothing to get excited about and the defense is decent although Temple is pretty sorry on offense right now..Temple did hang strong on defense for the most part all night though.. Buffalo has been in it until the end in just about every game they've played this year, whether win or lose. QB Drew Willy is really having a great year and he is a reliable QB to have going on the road..Starting RB James Starks missed the Army game with turf toe but should be back for the game this week. Starks has been averaging 104ypg so he is certainly an asset to the offense. With a win, Buffalo is still in position to take the MAC East and they still have a chance at a bowl compared to Ohio who is out of the MAC-East race and basically out of a bowl opportunity. The line opened at Ohio -2.5 and is down to Ohio -1.5 at a few different books. One team still has something to play for and is off a bye, the other had its season ruined in a heart breaking loss last week.

 

[E.T.G.]

Marshall Under :

Another lean here, number isn't out on TheGreek yet but see 62-63 sitting around... Long trip for Houston during the school week and Marshall has a pass defense that aint that bad. Marshall is offensively challenged for the most part, obviously the goal for them would be to keep this game as low scoring as possible. Not much else to say on this game except that if Houston is in the least bit sloppy and off target with their offense, good chance this game is going UNDER in my mind.

 

[E.T.G.]

Minny -6:

Lean here...BJorks, Marlo, Counselor, they can all tell you bout this team much more than I can. To me, I see an overrated NW team who has dropped 2 of their last 3 games and is going on the road to likely make it 3 of their last 4. NW will be without its best playmaker (Sutton), their QB in questionable with a hamstring (Bacher) and if he does play, me thinks his mobility will be very limited. But, from what I've read, there is a good chance Bacher is actually out. Backups Kafkas and Persa have been taking snaps at QB this week in practice. RB Conteh will be expected to take over the slack for Sutton and he is averaging just 3.7ypc compared to the 5ypc from Sutton.. I think their performance on the road is shaky as well while Minny is 4-0 at home.

Arkansas +6.5:

Will wait on this game until probably Thursday in fear of Bob being on the home doggie...I lucked out cashing that Tulsa ticket Sunday but observing that game, I see a defense that is going to get physically dominated at the LOS by Arkansas and I see RB Michael Smith having a monster day against Tulsa. Tulsa can score quick but the key to beating them is keeping their offense off the field and I think Arkansas can do that with Smith. Arkansas has been showing improvement every week and I know this is the first game for Gus Mazhlan (sp?) going back to Arkansas and he might still have a bone to pick with them and try to light up the scoreboard, plus the opportunity for Tulsa to show up a BCS school is huge, I just think this team has been playing Pop Warner football with a JV squad beating up the competition and now they face a fellow JV squad.

 

[Mags]

ETG - like your thoughts on TN/USC when you have a couple of minutes.

 

[E.T.G.]

Mags, made a thread for it, will update it as the week goes on.



Stanford -30 (2.2 to win 2)

I hate that I got a bad number here but this line got hammered quick for a reason. Wazzu is the worst team in D1 football and its not even close. They give up an avg of 266yds on the ground a game while Stanford rushes for nearly 200 on the year per game. WSU hasn't covered a spread all yr. Harbough not afraid of running the score up or covering late spreads (cough sjst). I mean, things are awful when Stanford is favored by 30 fuken points over you.

 

[E.T.G.]

UK ML:

When I get a line I will bet it. I don't care about what happened in the UF game, it was widely noted they were not trying to win that game. They currently have 5 wins and they were injured so they decided to rest the injured players for a game they had no chance in and get healthy for MSU. UK should not be +3 in this game imo. I will give it a PK at most. Randall Cobb is going to be the QB, he is very athletic gives them a chance to make a play out of nothing and gives them more explosiveness on offense. This game is going to be a battle but I believe UK wins it and becomes Bowl Eligible.

 

[Mags]

Mags, made a thread for it, will update it as the week goes on.



Stanford -30 (2.2 to win 2)

I hate that I got a bad number here but this line got hammered quick for a reason. Wazzu is the worst team in D1 football and its not even close. They give up an avg of 266yds on the ground a game while Stanford rushes for nearly 200 on the year per game. WSU hasn't covered a spread all yr. Harbough not afraid of running the score up or covering late spreads (cough sjst). I mean, things are awful when Stanford is favored by 30 fuken points over you.

Sorry bro, didn't see it. illow:

 

[TheGarfather]

I'm taking the Gamecocks this week bro. GL

 

[RetroVK]

Can i get your SEC perspective on the cocktail party ?

great thread going here... lots of good thoughts.

i would be careful of the under in the houston game unless you think Marshall will be shut down completely at home. Houston coming off a bye makes this midweek game actually one of their better spots of the entire season and you ahve one of nations best pass offenses matched up with one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the nation.

no real opinion on buffalo-ohio ... i still hate buffalo from when they made me lose an avatar bet.

 

[pags11]

GL etg...

 

[E.T.G.]

Sorry bro, didn't see it. illow:

haha, I actually made it after I saw your post, at first I thought the pillow fight was cause you were backing Wazzu

 

[E.T.G.]

I'm taking the Gamecocks this week bro. GL

GarFather, good luck with that. I think they cover but I also think its going to be a low scoring game and that could be some problems. I want to see whats the deal with the 2 injuries on SC side are, think both of them play (Cook, Meredith). I could see Tennessee leaving Columbia with 13 or less points.

 

[E.T.G.]

Can i get your SEC perspective on the cocktail party ?

great thread going here... lots of good thoughts.

i would be careful of the under in the houston game unless you think Marshall will be shut down completely at home. Houston coming off a bye makes this midweek game actually one of their better spots of the entire season and you ahve one of nations best pass offenses matched up with one of the absolute worst pass defenses in the nation.

no real opinion on buffalo-ohio ... i still hate buffalo from when they made me lose an avatar bet.

Kyle,

I will talk about the Cocktail party when I get home from class or if I have time at work to make a post. There is a chance I am going to be on that game backing Urban Cryer.


About the Houston Under, I probably will just roll with Buffalo ML tonight because that is the game I am more confident about.


Pags - Thank You and GL to you

 

[E.T.G.]

I don't have time to see around and wait for the ML all day at work so betting it now


Buffalo +105 (2 to win 2.1)

 

[E.T.G.]

Class was postponed 2day due to weather, got to love that


I am very tempted to get involved with Houston 2night now that the spread is an even TD.


I hate that I will have 2 road teams 2night if I do decide to play Houston but both teams are coming off a BYE.



Some numbers about the Houston game taken directly from a hometown Marshall newspaper

• • Houston is averaging a whopping 39.3 points, while Marshall manages an anemic 19.1 points per game.
  • Houston's explosive offensive ranks No. 3 in Conference USA. Marshall's implosive offense? Next to last
  • Houston has won three straight games. Marshall? Yep, you guessed it. Three consecutive losses.
  • Houston has hung consecutive point totals of 41, 45 and 44 on the scoreboard during its winning streak. Meanwhile, Marshall has produced meager scoring of 3, 10 and 21 points during its losing streak.
  • Marshall hasn't tallied as many total points (34) in its last three games as Houston has scored in each of its last three games.
  • Houston's lowest scoring performance of the season occurred during a 28-25 loss at Colorado State. Marshall, on the other hand, has eclipsed 25 points only twice. There was the season-opening 35-10 win over I-AA opponent Illinois State and a 34-27 win over stumbling, bubbling Southern Miss.
  • The simple fact of the matter is Houston has scored twice as many points as Marshall this season -- 275 to 134

 

[Marlo]

you hit Minny spot on I'm on them as well.

We also have revenge, we were leading NW by 17 pts I believe in quarter 3 last year, and they came back and beat us in OT.

Minny has gotten revenge from every loss last year, with all the players being out for Northwestern I expect the same.

Minny also is on of the top teams in the country in creating turnovers. I think that bodes well for a defensive going against a terrible 2nd string quarterback.

Ride or die pussy

 

[E.T.G.]

you hit Minny spot on I'm on them as well.

We also have revenge, we were leading NW by 17 pts I believe in quarter 3 last year, and they came back and beat us in OT.

Minny has gotten revenge from every loss last year, with all the players being out for Northwestern I expect the same.

Minny also is on of the top teams in the country in creating turnovers. I think that bodes well for a defensive going against a terrible 2nd string quarterback.

Ride or die pussy

Thanks Gaylo, its a strong lean for me as long as it is under a TD.


I am probably going to hate myself later for this but its whatever, the numbers are too strong for me to neglect.


Houston -7 (2.2 to Win 2)

I still think this game goes under but also see Houston winning by more than a TD here. Weather looks like it won't hinder the offense.

 

[E.T.G.]

Marshall Under :

Another lean here, number isn't out on TheGreek yet but see 62-63 sitting around... Long trip for Houston during the school week and Marshall has a pass defense that aint that bad. Marshall is offensively challenged for the most part, obviously the goal for them would be to keep this game as low scoring as possible. Not much else to say on this game except that if Houston is in the least bit sloppy and off target with their offense, good chance this game is going UNDER in my mind.

I want to punch myself in the face for laying off this and betting Houston-7, ahhhh decision making is horrible.


Will update this shit 2night, Kyle - I'm going to get to the UF/UGA game 2night as well.


Updated Card

Buffalo +105 (2 to win 2.1)
Houston -7 (2.2 to Win 2)
Stanford -30 (2.2 to win 2)
Minny -6.5 (2.2 to win 2)
South Carolina -6 (2.2 to win 2)
Kentucky ML (2 to win 2.6)
Oregon ML (2 to win 2.6)
Arkansas +7 (2.2 to win 2)
UF to win NC +800 (2 to win 16)

Still waiting on lines for a few games

 

[E.T.G.]

Can i get your SEC perspective on the cocktail party ?

.

Finally getting around this this game. When I bet UF+800 to win the NC, I made that bet with the thought that they'd win this game and beat Bama in the SEC-CG so its obvious which side I like in this game.

I will state a fact here, Florida is the fastest offense in the country. When Percy Harvin is the 3rd or 4th fastest player on the field at a given time, the speed is real. Those 2 little mini-charged race cars (Demps/Rainey) are at a point in the season now where they are heavily involved in the UF offense giving Urban Cryer more weapons at his disposal. Going back to Urban Meyer and his bag of tricks, I'm pretty sure the whole UF offense is shown this week, the LSU game was just a preview but there are likely so many new formations and plays that they've just been hiding just for Richt. While UGA does have the #6 run defense in the country, the way UF attacks them this week spreading the field, I think they'll be able to move the ball on the ground.

Everyone knows how upset UF and Meyer got about the celebration last yr, Meyer went as far as to write about it in the 3rd person in his book:

That wasn't right," Urban Meyer told Buddy Martin, the co-author of the coach's new book Urban's Way. "It was a bad deal. And it will forever be in the mind of Urban Meyer and in the mind of our football team. ...
"So we'll handle it. And it's going to be a big deal."

Now UGA should be just as motivated to try and 1) take the East, and 2) Beat a team who they've lost to in 8 of the last 10 and maybe 15 of the last 18? So to be fair for capping purposes, we can call motivation in this game even however I have to think UF has been thinking about this game every second since it ended. That game burns UF deeply.

I must tip my hat to UGA OL though, I did not think they would handle LSU DL and they've made me eat my words. That OL coach needs a salary boost the way he has worked his magic this year. Stafford looks very good at QB and can do the things that good QB's do like getting rid of the ball fast and attacking the open area left by the blitz. UF secondary hasn't really faced a good passing attack this year except for the Ole Miss game and that is a little bit of a worry for me because the problem with UF on defense last yr was defending the pass, not the run. AJ "Moss" Green is an unreal talent and catches everything slung his way.

If you ask a UF fan, Tebow was hurt last yr, if you ask a UGA fan, its just an excuse for UF fans. What we do know this year is that Tebow has run the ball a lot less this year, they have saved his body and if needed, he will be able to pound the rock with no excuses. Its hard to not like this kid because he is just a great person outside of football.

I think UF has a pretty big advantage on special teams, you can't really kickoff or punt to them without giving up the big play to James and they always seem to come up with a big block punt or fg.

In the end, in one of the best games of the weekend, I see UF winning by DD, yes DD, and Urban Cryer gets sweet revenge for last season.

This bet isn't placed yet cause I am looking to see if it drops anymore but will lock in 6 and under if it never moves

 

[E.T.G.]

no play on the game 2night, i couldn't pick the winner of this game if you told me the outcome before hand...................Florida -6 (2.2 to win 2) - see writeup above, UF by double digits, i'm sticking to that.

 

[RetroVK]

no play on the game 2night, i couldn't pick the winner of this game if you told me the outcome before hand...................Florida -6 (2.2 to win 2) - see writeup above, UF by double digits, i'm sticking to that.

Great writeup on the georgia-florida game.

thanks for responding to my question, bud.

best of luck this week.

 

[broadwayjoe]

gl this week etg...think you're right on the money with minny, and i am on your boys this week too. i hope you're wrong about florida, but i'm glad to see that it seems you don't hold too much weight to the revenge angle. i am beginning to grow sick of everyone talking this angle up so much...i don't think it's as relevant and don't think it gives an edge like people seem to give it. good thoughts on the game as usual, i just don't see florida being able to stop georgia.

 

[Troutman]

Finally getting around this this game. When I bet UF+800 to win the NC, I made that bet with the thought that they'd win this game and beat Bama in the SEC-CG so its obvious which side I like in this game.

I will state a fact here, Florida is the fastest offense in the country. When Percy Harvin is the 3rd or 4th fastest player on the field at a given time, the speed is real. Those 2 little mini-charged race cars (Demps/Rainey) are at a point in the season now where they are heavily involved in the UF offense giving Urban Cryer more weapons at his disposal. Going back to Urban Meyer and his bag of tricks, I'm pretty sure the whole UF offense is shown this week, the LSU game was just a preview but there are likely so many new formations and plays that they've just been hiding just for Richt. While UGA does have the #6 run defense in the country, the way UF attacks them this week spreading the field, I think they'll be able to move the ball on the ground.

Everyone knows how upset UF and Meyer got about the celebration last yr, Meyer went as far as to write about it in the 3rd person in his book:



Now UGA should be just as motivated to try and 1) take the East, and 2) Beat a team who they've lost to in 8 of the last 10 and maybe 15 of the last 18? So to be fair for capping purposes, we can call motivation in this game even however I have to think UF has been thinking about this game every second since it ended. That game burns UF deeply.

I must tip my hat to UGA OL though, I did not think they would handle LSU DL and they've made me eat my words. That OL coach needs a salary boost the way he has worked his magic this year. Stafford looks very good at QB and can do the things that good QB's do like getting rid of the ball fast and attacking the open area left by the blitz. UF secondary hasn't really faced a good passing attack this year except for the Ole Miss game and that is a little bit of a worry for me because the problem with UF on defense last yr was defending the pass, not the run. AJ "Moss" Green is an unreal talent and catches everything slung his way.

If you ask a UF fan, Tebow was hurt last yr, if you ask a UGA fan, its just an excuse for UF fans. What we do know this year is that Tebow has run the ball a lot less this year, they have saved his body and if needed, he will be able to pound the rock with no excuses. Its hard to not like this kid because he is just a great person outside of football.

I think UF has a pretty big advantage on special teams, you can't really kickoff or punt to them without giving up the big play to James and they always seem to come up with a big block punt or fg.

In the end, in one of the best games of the weekend, I see UF winning by DD, yes DD, and Urban Cryer gets sweet revenge for last season.

This bet isn't placed yet cause I am looking to see if it drops anymore but will lock in 6 and under if it never moves

:cheers:

I concur with most of these statements. It is crucial that Florida gets a pass rush with the front four so they can drop back in coverage, and you have to trust that Charlie Strong has some special defenses drawn up. I am sure they can immulate the ga passing game seeing that they have one of the best recievers in all of college football. Remeber the defense last year was very very young and they have had a year to mature.

Moreno will be limited this week, trust me, the defensive line had to do 188 push ups a day during camp, 1 for every yard Moreno gained on them. IMO Staffford will be throwing from behind and the running game will be nonexistent. Stafford is a major talent and is a NFL prototype, however he has little mobility and relies on his arm to bail him out, sometimes leading to costly interceptions. However the boys in blue have waited for this game for a year and So have I.

I hope for a DD victory but will settle for 27-24.
The road to the Championship ends for one team tomorrow and thats the sad thing about the SEC. I plan on watching this game with my best friend, who is a huge Bulldog fan, so to the VICTORS GO THE SPOILS...We have a bet in place that the loser of the game has to wear the opposite teams TSHIRT in public every Saturday for a month.....Thats gonna hurt for someone.


GO GATORS!

 

[Fondybadger]

someone have a late Friday night? Best of luck ETG