Wildcard Weekend NFL

[ScopeY]

Finished last 2 weeks 9-11 on props, 5-2 on sides.

Hines had 7 targets last week in a gamescript that suited him negatively. Another shocking twist... he was out there on just 18% of snaps. That isn't something that should be replicated again... the good thing is they're 6.5 dogs in this matchup, with the highest total of the weekend... he will be on the field more, and the colts should be in more passing situations than not. Helps that buffalo has a shutdown corner too.

N. Hines Total Receptions O3.5 -134 (2 Units)

- I don't hate knox receiving yards over.

Will try to update as I go

 

[ScopeY]

I was looking to find cam akers rush attempt props but they are not listed yet on DK/FD. Rams played him on 66% last week where he had an ankle injury and they weren't sure he was even going to play until warmups. He turned that snap count into 21 rush attempts and 4 targets. Still no henderson, and they obviously don't have faith in brown. I'll say he averages more than 3 yards per carry, so going to go this route for now.

C. Akers Rushing Yards O64.5 -112 (2 Units)

- I don't hate lockett receptions over.

 

[ScopeY]

I actually think this will be a faster paced game than most expect. TBB defense is a pass funnel to me, add in the fact that washington should be playing from behind, and the clock will slow down. In his last 7 games with TBB, brady has had over 40 pass attempts in all but one (counting the halftime sit by adding gabbert). Those 7 games had a mix of playing from ahead, and behind. This is actually the game I am targeting most in the DFS 3 game tourneys too.

TBB/WAS O44.5 -110 (2 Units)

I hope evans is out there as more of a decoy, but I can't trust backing him in props, or dfs, with the idea of being underutilized, reinjury (if he in fact plays), or just forcing him to sit on the bench if they're playing with a lead. They're projecting Darby to lineup vs brown mostly. This all sets up well for godwin. He has the softer matchup, and had as many air yards as brown on half as many targets. Sign me up.

C. Godwin Receiving Yards O61.5 -124 (2 Units)

You can make a case for mclaurin, but I'm going to avoid it, and only have a small amount of shares in DFS... who I think you can target is mckissic (definitely over gibson), and these 2.... Cam Sims, and Logan Thomas. Both have been out there on 100% of washingtons snaps multiple times over the last weeks, I just mentioned how they're a pass funnel team, and they should be playing from behind. Going to take receptions on thomas, as he is a safety valve, and yardages on sims, as its half of mclaurins yardage prop.

C. Sims Receiving Yards O35.5 -112
L. Thomas Receptions O4.5 -112

 

[HUNT]

I love a good prop bet. Good luck scopey.

 

[ScopeY]

Cashed in 19 of 20 lineups on DKs.

4-1 on props, 1-0 on sides.

My plan is to get as much exposure to this first game as possible...a one off from the chi/nos, and still debating on clv/pit. Lamar jackson may be 80%+ locked in. (big ben then tannehill maybe are my other choices)

Quickest paced game of the day, while I think lamar can hit his rushing prop, they have the best oline protection/sack rate of the weekend, maybe he will scramble run a little less, Going against one of the weaker defenses in the playoffs. I will be on hollywood brown, and may take a shot with the WR2 as well. Need more info if snead is confirmed out.

Idk how we can bet against henry, he can smash at any moment, and is in a good spot. Only concern really is an early lopsided game. May minimally bet against it with a lineup or two to give myself possible leverage, need to see how roster construction lays out. Think I'd rather attack corey davis props. Will be lower than browns, and he is capable. He's metrics have been yoyo like over the last 7 weeks (double digit targets, 2/3 targets, 100+ air yards, 20 air yards). This isn't a game he will be phased out in.

M. Brown Receiving Yds O51.5 -115 (FD - its 53.5 on DK) (3 Units)
C. Davis Receptions O4.5 -108 (FD) (2 Units)

Stalking Snead/Boykin/Duvernay/Bryant/Etc.

- Coming around on dobbins over as well but he still isn't playing as much as you think, and his attempts are not high enough to consider it imo. - Personally hoping Mark andrews is NOT the best TE of the day.

 

[ScopeY]

Slowest paced game of the day. I know both these teams averaged over 4YPC in the last matchup, but I see this being lower scoring than most. I will be underweight on kamara, and have a few shares of latavius murray... especially if the spread plays out, its a make or break type of exposure. With no darnell mooney, does it mean more concentration on Arob (By trubisky and the saints), or dump offs to montgomery (his reception prop worth a look). I've been burned by this guy, but I'm hoping no mooney leads to more looks to Kmet as well. 4 of his last 5 games he has had 6+ targets, and an average snap count of 88% over that span. (double that of the original jimmy G.)

Chicago is in the bottom 4th of the league at fantasy points given to TE's.... Taking Cook small to get a td in first half. Ge has one in 3 of last 5 games, his field time goes down in the second half when games aren't close, as they plug in better blockers, better odds than full game td, and has much better chance of getting it early than late.

C. Kmet Receptions O2.5 -126 (FD) (2 Units)
C. Kmet Receiving Yards O24.5 -124 (DK) (2 Units)
L. Murray Rushing Yds O30.5 -110

J. Cook 1st half td scorer +480 (tiny)

- won't fault anyone for liking the WR2 on chicago (miller/wims), or going for the target centric guys like kamara/thomas/arob.

 

[UTSUX]

Very Nice. Cashed in all 5 of my Lineups.

 

[ScopeY]

Adding this to the above

CHI/NOS U48 -110


I think conner is a viable low owned pivot from the higher owned Kamara/Montgomery/Henry (maybe even dobbins/chubb). I don't trust him to run the ball well, but if he can sneak a td, and they build a big lead, there is a path to success. I won't be over exposing myself though. It's about figuring out which/how many of the 3 wrs/1te will succeed. Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong, I believe Ward has been primarily covering the slot, and that is typically juju's area. I'd rather pivot to Diontae and a bit of claypool... if you want to take a hail mary on james washington, be my guest. I don't hate people wanting ebron but I'm off it as I want to concentrate on that position and have to cut some people off.

I'm taking a stand away from chubb... the gamescript shows them playing from behind and his snap share moves closer to 5050 as opposed to 66/33 in those situations. Lower priced, lower owned play, lower prop numbers with just as much upside. Sign me up. He has hit his receving prop easily in the last two cleveland brown loses.

K. Hunt Receiving Yards O17.5 -108 (FD - 18.5 on DK) (2 Units)

-still debating my PITT WR plays.

 

[ScopeY]

Very Nice. Cashed in all 5 of my Lineups.

Love to see it!

 

[UTSUX]

I got Kmet and Hunt today. Tell me some more

 

[ScopeY]

I got Kmet and Hunt today. Tell me some more

I think the winning lineup will have a home run hitting baltimore WR... personally.

I find it very hard for the path to victory not containing Lamar Jackson, I said it above, but the only other pivot id debate is big ben, but he can easily be phased out late, or tannehill.

These 3 game setups typically see game stacks that feature 3 to 4 players from the same team, with 1 to 2 players on the opposing team. (the top .1% that is)

So Lamar + Brown/Andrews, Lamar + Brown/(WR2/3/4/5), Lamar + Dobbins/Brown and/or andrew/WR2/3/4/5), if that makes sense, with a 1/2 combo of Henry, Davis, Brown. Brown my least likely, as I need salary relief too.

That's how I am starting 15~ of my 20 lineups

 

[ScopeY]

Nobody has the ceiling OR floor of lamar today, and the more I look into, I may just lock him in... differentiate other plays (like the hunt/kmets/etc.)

 

[gsro]

GL Scopey! Any thoughts on Tanny and his yardage under today?

 

[ScopeY]

GL Scopey! Any thoughts on Tanny and his yardage under today?

I'd only have the under... aside from the game against the browns, ya know, where they were down 3+ scores early. He has hit this yardage once in the last 6 weeks, and it was against the lions. If they are getting womped, you're in danger of backdoor garbage yards, but if its close, is there more value in just backing the + points in the moneyline?

 

[gsro]

I'd only have the under... aside from the game against the browns, ya know, where they were down 3+ scores early. He has hit this yardage once in the last 6 weeks, and it was against the lions. If they are getting womped, you're in danger of backdoor garbage yards, but if its close, is there more value in just backing the + points in the moneyline?

Thanks Scope lean that way with Tanny and had an initial lean to the Titans. Will give it some tiem or hope for an early Balt score and go live with the game.

 

[ScopeY]

Kmet props have bumped up which is nice to see..

So mad about corey davis, and his 2 targets.... what. the. heck.

Need to root for low QB performances, don't know if i have a winning lineup left with that 0 popping up across most lineups but i still have some leverage

 

[ScopeY]

2-4 props 1-0 sides

Big ben was the choice there.... 4/5 pit + 2/3 clv stacks was the winner. Pitt wr plays all cash. I'm shocked at the target disparity between hunt/chubb.... thankfully hunt cashes 2 tds though and murray even getting in there too, if murray doesn't limp off, Kamara has a MUCH worse game, murray maybe even gets a second td. Could have been a bigger swing for me

6-5 props, 2-0 on sides for the weekend (did lose the tiny play on Cook too)

15-16 props, 7-2 sides since week 16

To next week!

 

[Timh]

Scope I missed your thread this week, great play on Akers. GL.

 

[UTSUX]

Who you Liking this Weekend?