Who will win the big 12 south?

Guy Vincent said:
I think you are right too. If this is does happen would Tech then get the second BCS bid for the Big 12 because they beat Texas h2h or would it go to the bcs rankings?
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Good question. I don't know the definitive answer but my best guess is that the only team with any BCS right, as it were, is the BIG-12 champion.

For instance, last season Oklahoma, as BIG-12 champion, went to the Fiesta Bowl and played a game I'd rather forget. The Orange Bowl chose Kansas over Missouri, even though Missouri beat Kansas heads up. At that point, it was obviously up to the BCS bowls as to which BIG-12 team(s) they wanted to choose.

With regard to who the BCS would choose between Texas and Texas Tech if OU were to with the BIG-12 South berth, it would largely depend on which team would bring the most fans to the host city, and which team would generate the largest TV viewing audience.

I hope this helps.
 
Texas beat OU on a neutral field by double digit points.

Texas loses its only game in Lubbock on a last second play without their top WR (Fred Biletnikoff finalist), their top corner, and their top defensive player and lineman (name the defensive award and he's a finalist) for the entire second half.

If TT loses by more then 7 in Norman I don't see how you can not say Texas isn't the deserving team by looking at the entire schedule and body of work of all three teams.
Texas is also the only team that had Mizzu on its schedule out of the three teams.

The three best teams in the Big 12 are obviously TT, Texas, and OU. They all played each other and Texas was the only one who didn't get to host either team at home. All three teams are lights out at home FYI...

I honestly don't see OU beating Okie St. in Stillwater so if TT loses they still could win the Big 12 South with an OU loss.
 
I'm also very nervous about this game in Kansas. Lots of Texas players seem to be complaining about the weather. It was reportedly sleeting last night in Kansas.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Texas beat OU on a neutral field by double digit points.

Texas loses its only game in Lubbock on a last second play without their top WR (Fred Biletnikoff finalist), their top corner, and their top defensive player and lineman (name the defensive award and he's a finalist) for the entire second half.

If TT loses by more then 7 in Norman I don't see how you can not say Texas isn't the deserving team by looking at the entire schedule and body of work of all three teams.
Texas is also the only team that had Mizzu on its schedule out of the three teams.

The three best teams in the Big 12 are obviously TT, Texas, and OU. They all played each other and Texas was the only one who didn't get to host either team at home. All three teams are lights out at home FYI...

I honestly don't see OU beating Okie St. in Stillwater so if TT loses they still could win the Big 12 South with an OU loss.
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Good pts as usual, Horn, but you are a Texas fan so we have to take that into consideration :-)

Re: Okie St, let's see how they respond these next few games after the thrashing they took in Lubbock. That was a major beatdown.

As an OU fan I do try to be as objective as possible. I still believe they will beat Tex Tech by DD in Norman, and handle Okie St in Stoolwater. Texas and Tex Tech both hosted Okie St while OU must go to Stoolwater, so that's another checkmark in OU's favor if they win that game. We can spin this many ways in with give the nod to our own favorite team. The voters will decide on what they see, and the ESPN/USA Today voters already have OU ranked ahead of the Longhorns. This could be a problem for them going forward.

Bottom-line: Let's see where everything stands after Nov 29th. I'm confident OU will have impressive victories over Tex Tech and OSU to add to its resume' and the Sooners will be headed to KC to represent the Big-12 South. Let's see what happens.
 
OU to the B12C is pure douchebaggery. Voters have tired head when it comes to blowu shitting the bed in BCS games or bowl games in general. Think Ohio State without any national championship relevance.

Bottom line is Texas was one play a way from running a 4 game gauntlet vs. top 10 competition that no one has accomplished since 1945.

Texas' ace in the hole is two fold. First, they have the best non-shared win in Missouri. Secondly, a Tech loss will drop the Raiders significantly enough to make the Banditos de Rojo a non-factor in the minds of Big 12 voters when it comes to the tie breaker in the South. With Tech out of the picture, BCS voters will cast ballots based on the Texas vs. ou H2H matchup. Texas won by double digits on a neutral field. Plus, we're Texas, and we haven't had to forfeit every game in a given season for paying our players. That's not how we roll unlike outlaw programs, such as the 2005 Sooners.

Hook Them.
 
If OU makes minced meat out of TTU next Sat by say, 14 pts or so, then TTU will liklely drop below Texas in the BCS. Hence, OU's loss to Texas will look better than Texas's loss to TTU, because after all is said and done, OU will have lost to conceivably a better team than Texas did.

Remember, this is a beauty contest. It's about how many wins do you have, and who did you lose to and by how much? A 10 pt loss on a neutral to a top 5 BCS team (like OU's loss to Texas) looks better than a 6 pt loss at TTU (who will be the lowest ranked BCS team of the 3 if OU beats them good). It's not where you are ranked to start the season, or where you are ranked when you win or lose against another team, but rather where you are ranked when it's all said and done that matters, and TTU's anticipated drop in the BCS makes Texas's 6 pt loss to them on the road look less acceptable when compared to OU's loss to Texas, at that point.

Then, if OU beats Okie St by more than 4 in Stoolwater (4 was obviously Texas's MOV v. Okie St in Austin), then I believe it'll be a done deal -- OU will have a higher BCS ranking and will get the BIG-12 South nod.

Note: Currently, the ESPN/USA Today Coaches Poll, which is 1/3 of the BCS equation, has OU ranked higher than Texas. The Harris Poll and even the computers are sure to follow if OU beats TTU handily and wins at OSU by more than 4. MOV may not matter in the computers any more, but it does factor into voters minds.

and FYI "Texasfight", it was just two players, Rhett Bomars and a back-up O-Lineman who were paid in 2006 and kicked off the team, and they were paid by an auto-dealership, not OU. These things happen everywhere, just about, including at Texas. It's just not known by many of the coaches, including Stoops and Brown. If you think Texas hasn't had their share of misfits on the team the last several yrs, just do google search on the subject and you'll find quite a few Longhorns who were not so savory.
 
We lost at night to Tech on the last play of the game without our best receiver, corner back and defensive player. Texas bludgeoned you by double digits on a neutral field when both teams were full strength. Your defensive line was smashed to a point of giving up on the last TD drive. If Oklahoma gets anywhere at the expense of Texas, then college football is a joke.



By the way, your take on ou's pay for play is hilarious. JD Quinn, Rhett Bomar, and a walk on get pay for play, and super stars like Adrian Peterson, Malcom Kelley, and Rufus Alexander have to scrub cars to get their money. Right!!!

Here's an article I wrote for my blog based on SI's interview with Bomar.

And how Rhett was “Bomared” by the culture of cheating that embodies OU. Pretty interesting article here from SI.


Despite the harshness of the penalty, “I didn’t go out and rat anybody out or talk or anything like that, I just kind of moved on with my life.” --said Bomar.
​
That statement — “I didn’t go out and rat anybody out” — strongly implies that one or more of his teammates went unpunished. Asked to elaborate, he responded with a polite no-comment. “I’m not gonna get into that one. I’m happy now, and it’s going good.”
​
oklahoma1989.jpg

Winning isn’t everything it’s the only thing.

I’ll say it again. So we are to believe that a backup Olineman, a walk-on, and Rhett Bomar received what amounts to pay for play (no work), and super stars like Adrian Peterson, Rufus Alexander, and others got nada? Right. I think I’ll slit my wrists with Occam’s Razor.
 
Voters woke up last week after they realized they dropped Texas behind OU after the TT game. Texas gained a ton of ground last week even though they only beat Baylor.

Once these votes mean something voters will realize Texas beat OU by 10 on a neutral field and had a tougher schedule.

Do you remember Texas passing Cal on the final week a couple of years ago despite both teams winning every single week?

If Texas handles Kansas on the road I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas jump OU in the polls. Most of the talking heads want to see a "sexy" Florida vs Texas MNC game. Two teams that have won two of the last three titles and don't seem to piss themselves in BCS bowl games.
 
By majent's logic, Texas should jump ou this week after a 35-7 shellacking in bad weather on the road in Lawrence. A team ou barely handled 43-31 in perfect weather at home. Oh, and in case anyone forgot Texas beat ou by 10 on a neutral field. Scoreboard.
 
texasfight said:
By majent's logic, Texas should jump ou this week after a 35-7 shellacking in bad weather on the road in Lawrence. A team ou barely handled 43-31 in perfect weather at home. Oh, and in case anyone forgot Texas beat ou by 10 on a neutral field. Scoreboard.
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The score was OU 45, KU 31, actually. But I digress..

Texas Tech beat KU by 42 in Lawrence, you guys only won by 28. Therefore, if OU beats Texas Tech and there is a 3-way tie, OU should above Texas Tech because of h2h, and Texas Tech should be above Texas because A) they beat you, and B) they beat KU by 14 more pts than you did.

Sound logical?

:36_11_6:
 
Did someone say something about Texas's "tough" schedule?

Texas's Nonconf: Florida Atlantic, UTEP, Rice, Arkansas

In legal circles they use a phrase: "That doesn't pass the laugh test"

And Texas's win over Missouri is cheapened by the fact that Missouri lost at home to Okie State who got shelled by TTU last week

All OU has to do is beat Okie State by 5 in Stillwater, and it's 1 pt better on the road for OU over Okie State than it was for Texas at home. BAM, more impressive

OU, TTU, and Texas fans can split hairs all day long. We'll see where each team stands when it's all said and done on the evening of sat, Nov 29th, and the BCS rankings on Sun, Nov 30th will determine it.

If I'm TTU or Texas, I'm worried right now.....
 
SHSUHorn said:
Voters woke up last week after they realized they dropped Texas behind OU after the TT game. Texas gained a ton of ground last week even though they only beat Baylor.

Once these votes mean something voters will realize Texas beat OU by 10 on a neutral field and had a tougher schedule.

Do you remember Texas passing Cal on the final week a couple of years ago despite both teams winning every single week?

If Texas handles Kansas on the road I wouldn't be surprised to see Texas jump OU in the polls. Most of the talking heads want to see a "sexy" Florida vs Texas MNC game. Two teams that have won two of the last three titles and don't seem to piss themselves in BCS bowl games.
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Texas passes OU in the coaches poll. You can refer to me as Nostradamus from here on out...
 
SHSUHorn said:
Texas passes OU in the coaches poll. You can refer to me as Nostradamus from here on out...
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You are definitely good, Nostradamus, but that had more to do with Texas playing yesterday and Oklahoma not playing. We have seen many, many times throughout history that teams who are idle have dropped or been passed by other teams who played when the higher ranked team was idle.

2 games that will really count are TexTech @ OU and OU and OSU. Watch what happens if OU wins those 2, especially if they win going away.

Getting TexTech in Norman at night on nat'l TV is huge, as is the fact that OSU struggled with Colorado last week and will be limping into the game vs. OU in 13 days.

This story is far from over, bro.
 
Texas has a huge lead in the BCS. OU will need to blow out TT and Okie St. to even have a chance...that won't happen with their defense.

No coach or writer is going to vote a one loss OU over a one loss Texas when they played each other on a neutral field. Plus Texas will have played the overall tougher schedule.
 
HUNTDOG said:
I dunno bro..we live in a what have you done for me lately world.
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Not when Texas has beaten the team straight up. Can you imagine what the media and talking heads would say if the Big 12 title game featured OU vs Mizzu? Two teams that Texas beat by double digits.
 
SHSUHorn said:
Texas has a huge lead in the BCS. OU will need to blow out TT and Okie St. to even have a chance...that won't happen with their defense.

No coach or writer is going to vote a one loss OU over a one loss Texas when they played each other on a neutral field. Plus Texas will have played the overall tougher schedule.
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How about a one-loss Tech team over Texas? Right now we're all assuming that Tech will fall behind Texas in the BCS if they lose. But that is not a given. They could lose to OU and still remain ahead of Texas.
 
RJ Esq said:
How about a one-loss Tech team over Texas? Right now we're all assuming that Tech will fall behind Texas in the BCS if they lose. But that is not a given. They could lose to OU and still remain ahead of Texas.
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Texas Tech has a horrible schedule including two D1AA schools. That is killing their computer rankings.

This is the teams on their schedule that wasn't a common opponent of Texas.

Nebraska (6-4)
Massachusetts (6-4)
Nevada (5-4)
Eastern Washington (4-5)
Kansas State (4-6)
SMU (1-9)
 
I think we've discussed this before, but Eastern Washington was not originally on our schedule. Tulsa backed out and was bought off our schedule by Arkansas. The BCS and difficulty of the Big 12 has shown there's no need to play real teams in the OOC games. Win the games on your schedule, and you're set.
 
If I'm a Big 12 team i would schedule teams that will end up having a good record at the end of the year but aren't a real threat to beat you. I would schedule a TCU, Utah, ect...
 
tee*dub said:
IMO tech runs the table and beats Florida in championship game... Just my opinion..
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I totally agree w/ teedub on this statement......Tech will beat OU Saturday, and IMO I believe they win by two touches or more.....:shake:
 
rush said:
I totally agree w/ teedub on this statement......Tech will beat OU Saturday, and IMO I believe they win by two touches or more.....:shake:
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The Texas Tech ML is calling out your name! Get on it ASAP before it drops!

:36_11_6:
 
rush said:
If I were to play the game that is certainly what I would be playing.
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You just said that you believe TexTech will win by 2 TD's or more. They are 6 pt underdogs. That means you believe the line is off by 20 pts, at the very least. I mean, you absolutely have to unload on that, right? None of this "if I were to play the game". You MUST play this game.

I mean, how can the #2 ranked BCS team, a team that is 10-0, a team that has beaten juggernaut Texas (who beat Oklahoma by 10!), how can this team be a 6 pt underdog to OU who is only ranked #5 in the BCS!

Pinch me please, this is too good to be true!
 
majent said:
You just said that you believe TexTech will win by 2 TD's or more. They are 6 pt underdogs. That means you believe the line is off by 20 pts, at the very least. I mean, you absolutely have to unload on that, right? None of this "if I were to play the game". You MUST play this game.

I mean, how can the #2 ranked BCS team, a team that is 10-0, a team that has beaten juggernaut Texas (who beat Oklahoma by 10!), how can this team be a 6 pt underdog to OU who is only ranked #5 in the BCS!

Pinch me please, this is too good to be true!
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OK I guess I will. These kind of situations don't come around very often.
 
Majent,

You are doing a lot of talking. I assume you will be back to the forum Sunday morning regardless of the performance by the Sooners?
 
Unless I'm banned by the moderators, I am not going anywhere.

If Texas Tech goes into Norman and wins, there will be no excuses from me.

However, if Oklahoma wins handily, as I expect, I am sure there will be plenty of excuses coming from Red Raider nation.

Generally speaking, fans seem to have a tough time admitting that maybe the other team was just better.

I am not one of those myopic people.
 
just a forewarning for the whole thread in general...

I can see it spiral out of control at about oh...12 am saturday night.
 
Interestingly enough, collegefootballnews.com, who has several writers who follow CFB year-round, projected 2 days ago that Oklahoma will play Florida in the BCS title game.

They are obviously in agreement with me that Oklahoma will likely beat TexTech, OSU, putting them in the BIG-12 title game, and then will beat Missouri in the BIG-12 title game, which will give them the nod for the BCS title game:

http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=2&c=557866
 
majent said:
Interestingly enough, collegefootballnews.com, who has several writers who follow CFB year-round, projected 2 days ago that Oklahoma will play Florida in the BCS title game.

They are obviously in agreement with me that Oklahoma will likely beat TexTech, OSU, putting them in the BIG-12 title game, and then will beat Missouri in the BIG-12 title game, which will give them the nod for the BCS title game:

http://cfn.scout.com/a.z?s=451&p=2&c=557866
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Anybody can make projections...I personally feel they are overrated even though I hope these two guys w/ ESPN are correct.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/bowlprojection?season=2008&week=12
 
majent said:
I read them all, believe me. Give me the guys at collegefootballnews.com over Schlabach and Feldman ANY DAY OF THE WEEK.
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Look at Schlabach and Feldman's prediction, even right now, of Oregon State to the Rose. OSU would need to beat Arizona on the road this Sat (they are 3 pt dogs) and also beat Oregon at home next week which will likely be a pick 'em. Let's call them 2 coinflip games (even though they are 3 pt doggies at AZ) which means a 50% chance to win multiplied by 50% chance to win which equals a theoretical 25% chance that Oregon State wins both games and wins the PAC-10.

In other words: PICKING OREGON STATE RIGHT NOW TO MAKE THE ROSE BOWL IS A FOOLISH PICK THAT CLEARLY IGNORES SIMPLE MATH

:36_11_6:

P.S. USC is going to the Rose Bowl.
 
Let's talk about the Math of the matter, which precludes all of the sooners from reading this post. Translation. It's bad. From a poster on one of the private Longhorn boards.

Here are the numbers. While the BCS expresses them as decimal points, I find it easier to think of them in terms of whole numbers. The math is the same, just without a lot of zeros on the left.

BCS Gap: 523
Computers: 367
Coaches: 37
Harris: 117


Each coach vote is worth 2.11 points. Each Harris vote is worth 1.16 point. Each computer poll is worth 33 points. Yes, I'm dead serious. Every slot in each computer that counts is worth 15x more than a coaches vote and 33x more than a Harris vote.

I agree with some of you here who think that the voters will shift if OU wins out. They may even shift dramatically, but it is a really wide gap at this point. I'm equally, if not more, interested in how the computers that count will shift in that scenario. We'll have a better idea next Sunday.

Let's say all 63 coaches decide to flip OU and Texas, such that Texas loses the points and OU gains them. That is a 135 point gain for OU and a 135 point loss for Texas, or a shift of 270 overall. Let's say all 114 Harris voters do the same. That is another 132 point gain for OU and loss for Texas for a total shift of 264. That is a total shift of 534, which does get OU what it needs without any computer help. But just barely. And it required a unanimous shift of every single voter to both move Texas down and OU up. These are muddy waters in the 1-loss team pool. The voters are dealing with Florida, USC, Penn State, and you'll have thrown in Texas Tech. Not to mention Utah and Boise State have to slide in there somewhere. I don't think that you'll see anywhere near a unanimous shift even if OU wins out.

I'll be generous (and obviously these are always wild-ass guesses) and say we see a 50% shift, so somewhere in the neighborhood of a 270 point gain for OU in the human polls. That leaves, let's call it 250 points, to be made up by computer shifts. That is roughly 7.5 computers. 4 of 6 computers count (highest and lowest dropped). So again, it requires a nearly "unanimous" shift of BOTH Texas going down and OU gaining in order for OU to bridge the gap. I'm not saying that it can't happen. I'm not even saying that it won't happen.

It just doesn't look good for the sooners.
 
My math with Oregon State was being generous to them winning as underdogs on the road this Sat and in a virtual pick 'em in the "Civil War" next week in Corvallis. I was talking about the chance of them winning 2 theoretical toss-ups in successive weeks.

Your math with the BCS goes out the window if OU beats TexTech handily (which I expect), and beats OSU by say a TD+ the following Sat.

Just watch what the "what have you done for me lately" voters do when that happens.

It does not look good for Texas.
 
texasfight said:
You're betting on a near unanimous voting flip flop by the Coaches and the Harris voters? Wow.
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It does not have to be a uninanimous flip-flop because the disparity is so little right now.

2 words to look for in Norman on the 22nd and in stoolwater on the 29th:

STYLE POINTS

OU's (hopeful) victories over TexTech and OSU, respectively, will be much more impressive to the voters than Texas's loss @ TexTech and 4 pt MOV over OSU in Austin. Yes, I know OU has the benefit of getting TexTech in Norman, but Texas had the benefit of getting OSU in Austin.

We can argue about it all day long. But on Sun, Nov 30th when the BCS rankings are released, I will be pretty surprised if OU is not ranked higher than both Texas and Texas Tech in the BCS standings, and they are not headed to KC to represent the BIG-12 South...........
 
style points is not something OU is worried about at this point... they are gonna have a hard enough time stopping the gun's up offense. I consider TT's O to be much better than UTs
 
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