Who will win the big 12 south?

G

Guy Vincent

Well-Known Member
If Oklahoma beats tech then there will more than likely be a three way tie between Texas, OU, & Tech. Then who ever has the highest ranking at the end of November will win the Big 12 south. Then if the big 12 south champ wins the big 12 championship they would play for the national title. And from what I am hearing, if OU beats tech and then OSU those two wins would probably put them infront of Texas. Is this correct? So, I guess the best thing for a texas fan is for OU to beat Tech and then lose to OSU?
 
They have to pass Texas in the BCS...just depends what the consensus thought would be after that happened..

I beleive when it came down to it that the head to head result on a neutral field would be enough to keep texas in front of OU.
 
I agree with your prediction and assessment above. I just think it would be a crime if OU jumps Texas by winning against TT and OSU.
 
From SI.com


If Oklahoma beats Texas Tech and there ends up being a three-way tie between UT, Tech and OU in the Big 12 South, the BCS rankings determine the division winner. How do you think the voters would sort that out?
-- Byron, Tulsa, Okla.


See -- that's a new one.


A formula that was purportedly designed to determine the participants in the national championship game may now be used to decide the winner of a conference's division.



The only comparable situation I can think of is the SEC in 2003, when Georgia, Florida and Tennessee all finished 6-2 in league play and 1-1 against each other. Georgia went to the SEC title game based on the BCS standings -- but those teams weren't in contention for the national title. At least two of these teams will be.


And here's the strangest part of all: Despite presently sitting at No. 3 in the standings, despite the fact it will in most likelihood finish 11-1, Texas probably has the least chance of the three of playing for its conference championship.


First of all, if Texas Tech beats Oklahoma, or if the Sooners beat the Red Raiders but then lose to Oklahoma State, Tech wins the South, either straight up or in a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Longhorns. And I believe Oklahoma would win the three-way tie.


For one thing, the Sooners, for no logical reason, are already a spot above Texas in the coaches poll, and they're only a spot behind the 'Horns in the Harris Poll. The discrepancy between them right now is in the computers, where Texas is third and OU is tied for fifth. Were the Sooners to beat 10-0 Texas Tech and (currently) 8-2 Oklahoma State, while Texas plays 6-4 Kansas and 4-6 Texas A&M, you have to think that gap would vanish. Basically, Oklahoma benefits from getting to make the last impression.


I'm fairly confident that's how said scenario would resolve itself. The better question is, should that be the case? That depends on your criteria.


Some people (I'm not one of them) like to compare two or more teams with the same record solely by the game they lost, in which case Texas (last-second touchdown on the road) has a better loss than Oklahoma (by 10 points at a neutral site). Obviously we don't know yet the nature of Tech's theoretical defeat.


Personally, I prefer to compare the 11 games the teams won rather than the one they lost. Texas will wind up being the only one of the three to beat the presumptive North Division champ, Missouri. But if we're talking BCS standings, that takes into account your nonconference schedule as well. Oklahoma beat two teams currently ranked in the Top 25, 9-2 TCU and 7-2 Cincinnati. By contrast, Texas' best win came against 7-3 Rice, Texas Tech's against 5-4 Nevada.


There is no right answer to this question, but there is good news: History tells us that whenever we spend this much time fretting over a possible BCS dilemma ... something completely different will supplant it.
 
I believe Oklahoma will beat Texas Tech and Oklahoma State rather handily and will overtake Texas in the BCS, thus giving them the tie-breaker and they will represent the Big-12 South in the Big-12 Title game.

The Sooner fan in me will be thrilled at this. The College Football fan in me will think it is a bit unjust because Texas beat OU, but then again, Oklahoma will have beaten A) Texas Tech and B) Oklahoma State handily to end the season, which are the teams that A) beat Texas, and B) nearly beat Texas in Austin.

In addition, OU lost to Texas in the state of Texas where they controlled the game for at least a half and had the lead for a significant portion of the game. They lost by 10. The total yds and first downs were about even. The difference was 2 Bradford int's and a Shipley kick-off return.

Texas lost to Texas Tech in the state of Texas where they were run off the field in the first half, and although they lost the game by just 6 pts, they were thoroughly outplayed for 57 mins and outgained by 200 yds.

Basically what I'm saying is that both OU and Texas lost to great teams, but OU looked a lot better in their loss than Texas did. I hate to split hairs but it's just the way I see it. Apparently, the ESPN/USA Today voters agree with me. If OU can dispose of Texas Tech and Okie State in the manner I believe they can, it will be very tough not to rank them higher than Texas in the polls that go into the BCS, and the BCS ratings will probably reflect that.
 
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I hate to split hairs but it's just the way I see it.

But that's just it Maj, under the current system, you have to split hairs. It's why we need a playoff. :p

PS: Two more weeks to make your move.
 
horses said:
I hate to split hairs but it's just the way I see it.

But that's just it Maj, under the current system, you have to split hairs. It's why we need a playoff. :p

PS: Two more weeks to make your move.
Click to expand...

We can't worry about a playoff until we have one. Right now we must split hairs and look at every single detail of a team's wins and losses. The teams have got to do the best with the system in place and adjust their goals and playing styles to fit what the BCS is looking for: Strength of Schedule and Style Points. Win big and lose close. I LOVE these 2 parts of the BCS.

Texas has a very weak non-conference schedule this season. I don't blame them for Arkansas being down, but Florida Atlantic, UTEP, and Rice?

Please.

We can't blame OU for Washington being bad but at least they played Cincinnati, who is a pretty decent team. Last yr OU hosted Miami and they will go to Miami in 2009. Last yr Texas played TCU and C. Florida so at least they played some solid teams, but the 2008 Texas non-conf sched is horrible. It's basically unacceptable.

Another thing Texas might be punished for is their close win over Oklahoma State. Texas Tech destroyed Ok St by 35, so it makes Texas's win over the Cowboys look less impressive. Meanwhile, Oklahoma is steam-rolling opponents, and while the opponents are nothing to write home about, they get 2 nationally televised shows on Nov 22 and Nov 29, respectively, and that might be enough to jump the Horns in all of the polls.
 
One thing I take great pleasure in is seeing when teams get punished for a weak SOS. SEC teams like to say that their conference is so great that play a difficult enough schedule as it is. My response is that conference strength goes in cycles. The SEC is obviously down this season so this is where a stronger non-conf sched would have come in handy.

At least Florida plays Florida State every season, and this yr they picked up Miami again after a 5 yr absence, but the LSU's of the world have no business playing the non-conf schedule they do. This season, LSU played App St, Troy, North Texas, and Tulane. No doubt that would have hurt them if they were in the BCS mix come early Dec and that's the way it should be.

Teams should be punished for playing weak non-conf schedules and when they do happen to lose a game, how much they lose by should be taken into consideration. This is what encourages teams to give everything they've got until the final whistle, regardless of the score. They keep busting their ass and this is what lends itself to college football having the best regular season in all of sports.
 
IMO tech runs the table and beats Florida in championship game... Just my opinion..
 
tech UF would be a fun game to watch. i think UF has the upper hand in that matchup though. gonna be a long layoff between 12/6 and 1/8 though so who knows how each team will be playing.

as for the big 12 south i'd have to say tech too
 
UF going for the gold this year and they've got the experience with the long lay off on top of having the fastest team for the country. but to stay on topic, I do think it is unfair if Oky beats Tech and there is a 3-way tie and Oky goes over Tex
 
E.T.G. said:
UF going for the gold this year and they've got the experience with the long lay off on top of having the fastest team for the country. but to stay on topic, I do think it is unfair if Oky beats Tech and there is a 3-way tie and Oky goes over Tex
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but then it would be unfair that tex goes over tex tech. but then that would be unfair because tech goes over ou.
 
pcb525 said:
I love how everyone is assuming TTU will lose in Norman in every thread...
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I am seeing a lot of love for Texas Tech. 2 posters in this thread alone are picking them to win straight up!

Texas Tech is a great team, but to ask them to go into Norman, OK against an offense that Kirk Herbstreit, Lee Corso, and Todd Blackledge, among others, have called the best offense in the country, and win that game, is too much to ask, IMO. 2 wks to prepare for Stoops/Venables to get the improving young defense ready, the game is at night. Bradford and his aweseome WR corps hearing all about Harrell and Crabtree for the next 10 days. This plays right into OU's hands.
 
Where was the so called "greatest offense" against Texas? Why didn't Bradford & company score enough to win that game? Surely it's not because the Texas secondary are legend killers. The "greatest offense" wins any game for your team, no matter the situation.
 
ynnhoj316 said:
Where was the so called "greatest offense" against Texas? Why didn't Bradford & company score enough to win that game? Surely it's not because the Texas secondary are legend killers. The "greatest offense" wins any game for your team, no matter the situation.
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Actually, you've got it wrong. Defense wins championships, haven't you heard that line before? OU lost the game because Texas made a few more plays, and OU made a few mistakes. OU put up 35 pts, had 20 first downs and 435 yds against a Will Muschamp coached defense. Not many teams can boast that over the yrs. Sam threw 2 int's, and the special teams gave up a kick-off return for a TD. Credit to Texas. A young Sooner defense got even younger when the spiritual leader, MLB Ryan Reynolds got hurt. It certainly did not help the cause. If you would have told me before the game that Texas would have 23 FD's, 438 yds, a kick-off return for a TD, be +2 in turnovers, and that OU MLB Reynolds would get ko-ed from the game, I would have guessed OU would have lost by 17+. It was the great offense that kept them OU the game.

OU has won 7 national championships. The coach has won 1. Played in 2 others. What exactly has Texas Tech done besides avg 8 wins a yr under Leach coming into this season?

Your team will get their chance to show the country what they're made of on Sat, Nov 22nd. They are a great team and have shown they can win big games at home, but can they handle the big stage outside of Lubbock?

I don't think so, but we'll see.

:shake:
 
majent said:
OU has won 7 national championships. The coach has won 1. Played in 2 others. What exactly has Texas Tech done besides avg 8 wins a yr under Leach coming into this season?
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What do those 7 national championships do to help OU win this game? I know for a fact that the one Texas won in 2005 didn't help much at all a couple of weeks ago.

Sure OU's defense has been getting better, but this is the team that gave up 28 points to A&M last week, 28 to Nebraska, 35 to Kansas State, and 31 to Kansas. Let's not say that this is a dominant defense by any means. I think it could be said that these teams are pretty even on both sides of the ball.
 
21-0 - Home record of the top four teams in the Big 12 South. For either Texas Tech or Oklahoma to advance to the Big 12 championship game, they will have to break this trend by beating a team previously undefeated at home (Tech at Oklahoma or Oklahoma at Oklahoma State).
 
Big stage for the Techsters...if they win in Norman they should be #1 in anybody and everybody's poll...

If the spread is really 3 or less like many project, I will definitely be on OU; I think this spread is OU -6.
 
ynnhoj316 said:
2007:
Oklahoma 27
Texas Tech 34

:36_11_6:
Click to expand...

It's amazing that Tech only won by 7 considering that Sam Bradford was ko'ed from the game after the first series due to a concussion.

Imagine if Graham Harrell only got to play one series and then sat out the rest of the game?

BLOWOUT for the Sooners in that event.
 
Hopefully it's not Texas Tech. I'll be rooting hard for Oklahoma, and that is a statement that is a difficult statement for me to say. NO TEAM who plays TWO (2) 1AA opponents should be permitted to play in the NC game. That would be a TRAVESTY. If Texas Tech make it, hopefully Florida is their opponent because they would get exposed as the FRAUD team that they are.
 
majent said:
Whoever is projecting OU -3 is off their rocker.

I believe it opens at least OU -7, maybe higher.
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No offense, but a line of OU -7 is idiotic and stupid. The higher ranked #2 team in the country CATCHING a touchdown? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. This game is a tossup. Despite OU's bad defense, the game is at home, so those negate each other. Opening line will be under 3 for the favorite, whoever that is. This game is going to be very heavily bet. I suggest looking at the opening line, and see what happens before making a move.
 
majent said:
It's amazing that Tech only won by 7 considering that Sam Bradford was ko'ed from the game after the first series due to a concussion.

Imagine if Graham Harrell only got to play one series and then sat out the rest of the game?

BLOWOUT for the Sooners in that event.
Click to expand...


The biggest word in the English language......IF.
 
tmlam said:
No offense, but a line of OU -7 is idiotic and stupid. The higher ranked #2 team in the country CATCHING a touchdown? Oddsmakers aren't stupid. This game is a tossup. Despite OU's bad defense, the game is at home, so those negate each other. Opening line will be under 3 for the favorite, whoever that is. This game is going to be very heavily bet. I suggest looking at the opening line, and see what happens before making a move.
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No offense taken. But what is actually "idiotic and stupid" is thinking that the oddsmakers even care about who the higher-ranked team is. They know that the rankings are based on human polls and computer polls, which can be very subjective. They open lines based on their own numbers, and then the sharps hammer that opener into place.

I will be shocked if OU opens only -3.

I will be surprised if OU opens up only -5.

I'm gonna stick with -7 as the opener.
 
Should be a fun game...

I'll stick to the opener of -6'.

Majentic is certainly right about one thing...oddsmakers could give two shits about who is the higher ranked team when setting this spread.
 
tmlam said:
Opening line will be under 3 for the favorite, whoever that is.
Click to expand...

Another thing that is "stupid and idiotic" is thinking that Texas Tech might even be the favorite in Norman!

All one needs to do is take a look at the games each team has played this season, then take into account there are 2 wks to prepare for the game which is an advantage to Stoops and Venables because they are superior defensive coaches than anyone Tech has, plus the game is nationally televised on ABC in Norman at night!

All of this warrants Oklahoma to clearly be the favorite, the question is just by how much.

P.S. To those who don't know, it's the strong-running games and big offensive lines that give OU's D problems this season. Tex Tech has a great offensive line but they are better pass blockers than run blockers. This plays right into OU's hands.
 
Touche. Lines are sometimes shaded toward one team or the other, with the bookmaker taking a position on a certain side. This happens very often. And more often than not, the book makes a larger profit when the game is over.

I can and do see a scenario where OU opens at 4-5, and is quickly bet up to 7.

Conversely, Texas Tech could open as a very small favorite and the line adjusts from there. The book takes a position, with the belief that they will receive more action from the perceived better team laying a very small number on the road, when in reality, OU has a larger chance of winning the game. (Examples of such a scenario: BYU @ TCU, Kansas @ Nebraska, etc etc).

And I agree, bookmakers don't care where a team is ranked when determining power rankings. However, a consensus of computer rankings and human polls are often reflected in power rankings. For reference, review the Sagarin ratings. Texas Tech has the edge in Elo-Chess (where margin of victory does not matter), but in Predictor, OU has a slight edge. With that said, the difference in Predictor and home field advantage could equate to a line of 4-6, but IN MY OPINION, OU opening at -7 is too high.
 
Please explain how you know/where you get your information from regarding TTU's pass blocking vs. run blocking skills.


Lots of resident experts on here thanks to ESPN's sudden coverage of Texas Tech.
 
Also, please explain your claim of Venables being the second coming of Jesus. Both on the field and statistically, his defense hasn't been impressive.

Maybe I'm watching a different OU team?
 
ynnhoj316 said:
Lots of resident experts on here thanks to ESPN's sudden coverage of Texas Tech.
Click to expand...

I've been following Texas Tech since Spike Dykes was roaming the sideline in Lubbock, thank you. Before Billy Joe Tolliver became the starting QB at Tech, I was following the program. CFB has been my life since 1986. So let's talk some Texas Tech.

Neither Batch nor Woods is a power-running back, they are shifty, nimble runners. The Tech offensive line is much better at pass-blocking because they pass 66% of the time (499 pass attempts out of 756 plays). While they are good run blockers, they are not dominant, physical run blockers. They don't pull a lot and road-grade. Most of their running plays are draw plays. This plays right into OU's hands.
 
vegaskyle said:
texas is getting hosed.
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If Texas Tech loses a close game to Oklahoma, and they all end up in a 3-way tie, then Tech can say that they deserve to go over Texas because they beat the Horns.

The more I think about this, unless Tech beats OU or unless OU beats Tech convincingly, we're gonna have a major controversy on our hands about who gets to go to the BIG-12 title game.

If it's a close game but Tech loses, Tech folks will say they should go because they had the highest BCS ranking going into the game.

Texas folks will say they beat OU who beat Tech, so they should go.

We OU fans will say we beat Tech who beat Texas so we should go.

Of course, this could all be moot if one of the 3 teams loses a second BIG-12 game and then it's just 2 teams standing and we look at h2h.

My gut feeling is that Oklahoma will beat Tech handily and then beat Okie St in a barn-burner, giving the Sooners the highest BCS ranking between the 3 schools and sending them as the rep of the BIG-12 south. I'm trying to be objective and not be a homer. This is truly the scenario I see unfolding.

We'll find out in due time.
 
majent said:
My gut feeling is that Oklahoma will beat Tech handily and then beat Okie St in a barn-burner, giving the Sooners the highest BCS ranking between the 3 schools and sending them as the rep of the BIG-12 south. I'm trying to be objective and not be a homer. This is truly the scenario I see unfolding.
Click to expand...

I think you are right too. If this is does happen would Tech then get the second BCS bid for the Big 12 because they beat Texas h2h or would it go to the bcs rankings?
 
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