Who are your ATS sleeper teams this year?

[TahoeLegend]

By sleeper teams I mean teams the public and the books may underrate so you can make some money on them early in the year. Even late in the year for that matter because sometimes--as they did with Oklahoma last year--they never adjust to what the line should be all year when they start them out too low.

I has three--Texas, Syracuse, Texas A&M. I removed Texas when it became clear that everyone else on the planet had them also. If anything, they are now overrated. I added Michigan when I saw they were getting points against N Dame. Looks like the pubic and the books have soured on Harbaugh so they may be underrated all year.

I'm looking at a couple of others I may add later. Looking for information from all of you on what you see this year.

 

[ProV1Colt]

Arky St not really a sleeper but you will make $ on them ATS this year
Purdue
Tulane (paging Twink)
MTSU. I love Stockstill. C-USA should be a very entertaining conference this year.
Austin Peay whenever you can get a # on them

 

[KJ]

Have a gut feeling UCF will be undervalued this year
Agree Michigan
Florida, going to keep both eyes on as well
Baylor one eye

 

[B.A.R.]

From the home perspective, I expect Michigan to do solid ats... but they are still overvalued in GOY lines a bit.

With that being said, they are very underrated going in...which is fresh and nice in year four...lets keep it that way.

I have a few teams I like...I'll try and get a better post up on Thursday.

 

[Inspekdah]

How is WKU going to compete this year? Fade has to be profitable?

Like Syracuse. But we’ll know if an auto bet is in store if they can win on the road big at WMU. I expect them to considering their coach has more talent than he ever had in the MAC facing an old rival.

 

[raems]

Michigan with Harbaugh objectively can't be consistently undervalued ATS. You might be able to pick your spots with them here and there, but it doesn't feel likely that they'll be very profitable in the aggregate. TT Unders for their opponents might be the better angle with their defense this season.

4 teams in the entire country right now are ahead of Michigan for championship odds --- that's not a team that is undervalued.

 

[raems]

I expect Rutgers to have some value, that fits the profile of an "undervalued" team to me.

Bad team in a good conference that nobody ever wants to back - if they take a mini-jump to "half decent," that translates to ATS success. Connelly has them at a Top 30 defense this year, they have a bunch of dudes in the back 7 that can limit explosive plays. Could translate to the type of squad that good teams overlook and wind up happy beating 31-14, 27-17, etc as 20+ point favorites.

 

[RetroVK]

Oregon State, UTEP

 

[B.A.R.]

I expect Rutgers to have some value, that fits the profile of an "undervalued" team to me.

Bad team in a good conference that nobody ever wants to back - if they take a mini-jump to "half decent," that translates to ATS success. Connelly has them at a Top 30 defense this year, they have a bunch of dudes in the back 7 that can limit explosive plays. Could translate to the type of squad that good teams overlook and wind up happy beating 31-14, 27-17, etc as 20+ point favorites.

Good stuff.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Agree with you about Rutgers, BAR. When a team that has been down goes 8-4 ATS I always like them the following year.

My two surprise teams this year are BC and Cal.

BC has had a bullet proof D and couldn't sccore at all for the last several years, so was a steady money winner if you took the unders week after week, but last year they unveiled the first good QB under this HC, a freshman, and a great RB, another freshman, and once I got a look at them and saw how good they were I bet them almost every week. They finished 9-4 ATS and yet the public never paid them any mind and still seems to be unaware of how good those two players are and what a difference it makes to BC to have an offense.

Cal had a new coach no one had ever heard of and a bunch of players no one knew and yet they were one of the most reliable teams in the country ATS. I started betting them after I saw the play USC. They were overmatched against everyone and yet Wilcox--excellent resume as DC at Wisconsin and other schools--had them fighting and scrapping every down of every game. They have a good junior QB and the OC was formerly HC at E Washington (also add a good redshirt RB from Vegas who is grandson of Muhammad Ali). Their defense plays as hard and as tough as anyone and never quits hitting. They finished 8-3 ATS and their only losses ATS were on the road to Washington, Colorado, and Oregon.

I expect both schools to be better this year, both to have tough, hard nosed defenses, and, best of all, the general public will likely ignore both like they always do.

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Syracuse is a tempting one because its qb is so likable, a real dual threat gamer, upset Clemson. But the fact that he‘s such a huge part of the team and that he‘s so injury prone and crucial receivers have moved on is enough to scare me away. Not to mention that defense has some worlds to improve

 

[TahoeLegend]

Adding Oklahoma State as a possible underrated team. I get the impression they are from early lines and pre-season mags. Gundy is one of the best coaches around and somehow does it year after year with mainly recruits none of the elites schools wanted.

The one problem is the oddsmakers know how good he is and most of the time they are not a bargain. There were one of the few teams in the country--and probably the only non-elite team--to be favored in every game last year, including against Oklahoma.

SOME ATS NOTES--things to keep in mind this year
The two best teams ATS the last three years are Wisconsin (26 wins) and Oklahoma (25 wins). With Oklahoma it was clearly because of Baker Mayfield, but Wisconsin just continues to be underrated year after year even though they are one of the best--maybe the best--ATS teams in college football. They have been above .500 or better ATS for five straight years, one of the few teams to do so, and were 19 games over .500 during that span. I can't think of any winning team that is more overlooked,

Stanford and Washington are the most consistent ATS teams on the planet it appears. Shaw has one of the most amazing streaks in the history of football gambling--he has never been under .500 ATS in his entire career and is 19 games >.500 in his career. Washington has been .500 or better seven straight years, and Petersen has been .550 or better ATS every year he has been there. That doesn't mean you can win a lot of money on either because they are both so respected you have a lot of 7-7, 7-6 years, but avoiding a losing a bet is better than winning one (you don't have to pay the juice) so I don't bet against either. Avoiding a loss is even more important in contests than in betting with a book and I started spending more time on contests a few years back, so I avoid going against teams I know are going to beat you over the course of a season.

I've got some revealing ATS stats on other teams, but I'm heading to the beach volleyball courts and will post later.

 

[Googs]

Nevada may be over valued based on decent play last year, at least offensively. They only return like 5-6 starters and there defense is a mess. Probably high totals, but my guess is there will be plenty overs in Wolfpack games and they will have a hard time keeping up

 

[TahoeLegend]

I espected N Texas to be a surprise team this year, but now I'm not sure. They were only 6-6 ATS so I thought that was enough for people to ignore them. Most forecasters are picking them only third or fouth in their division, but I see several touts are picking them as a team to watch ATS.

Excellent young coach from the Stoops/Leach coaching tree and a very good QB. They have had a hard time building a defense and it's hard to put money no a team with a weak D,, but this should be their best D under Littrell.

I also like fact the players don't get sacrificed by having to play a road money game against a meat grinder elite team.

They have the team, but if enough touts start talking about them the value may vanish.