A couple things:
I'm still not sold on UCLA. the ASU game turned into a sick joke for ASU bettors. Hundley looked pretty good on offense for most of the game, but ASU handed them several scores which made it look worse than it was. 627 yards to a backup QB making his first start, prior to that almost 500 to a Memphis team that just mustered 120 yards vs Ole Miss. They are a decent squad but these people saying they are final 4 contenders are out of their minds. At some point, that horseshoe shoved up their collective rectums is going to fall out.
Bowling Green has played 3 road games. In those games, they've given up 2,102 yards. U Mass racked up 638 yards yesterday, and somebody named Blake Froenhepfel threw for 589 yards a week after Wisconsin broke a Big ten rushing record against them. They're at home this week, so it doesn't apply, but holy hell have they been bad on defense on the road.
In my opinion, you can't handicap for defensive/ST TDs, and you can't handicap for 75+ yard TD passes. For 90% of FBS, when those happen, it's more a random event than anything else. The ball got tipped, someone fell down, etc. FIU scored 4 TDs on Saturday(vs UAB) in what had to be the biggest surprise of the weekend. All 4 were 75+yard passes or defensive scores. If you take away the 2 long passes, FIU had 137 total yards. Their defense appears to be legit, but this is still a putrid offense.