Western Conference Finals discussion thread

went with san antonio +2.5

the much better all around team... must win imo because if this is turned into a 6 or 7 game series, they'll be in a major disadvantage vs miami

okc was in a great spot with their sunday home game... not so tonight... TP will be better... hopefully
 
As it looks right now, Thunder in 6 looks like the best bet at the moment.
Actually took it before the series started for small units (on top of Thunder winning the series) - so really hoping for 2012 type of comeback to be competeled.
 
One point that I just don't get. Thunder lead 10+ points the whole fourth quarter, but still, Westbrook logged in 45 minutes and Durant 41 minutes.
On the other side, Parker was the starter that played the most minutes, with 26 minutes only.

The series are played with one day's rest till the end and Thunder, despite their amazing two games, still tied 2 - 2 and still need a win in SA, in order to get to the NBA Finals.
I don't get why they played at all in the fourth quarter or at least, why weren't they kept under 40 minutes.

Westbrook played 11 minutes in the fourth quarter (pure garbage time - was replaced with a minute to go), Durant played 9 minutes in the fourth quarter (entered 2 minutes in to the fourth quarter and left with 1 minute left as well).
I realize that they are young and were really on fire, but still... Never understand such moves by the coaches. Fatigue, some garbage time injury... Why risk it?

I also don't get NBA refs. They call so many fouls as flagrant fouls or clear path fouls, but Belinelli's foul in the second quarter, when he pushed RW, when he was in the air, on the way to the basket, as regular foul. I realize that he was shooting, so they can't call it clear path (he stole the ball and was on the way for easy lay up), but to push a player in the air... It should have been a flagrant imho...
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
The Thunder swept the Spurs 4-0 in the regular season. From Elias: There have been only 3 instances in NBA history where one team was 4-0 or better vs. another team in the regular season and they met in the Conference Finals. In all 3 cases, the team that swept the regular season won the playoff series as well.
Click to expand...

:thinking:
 
Coming home off a road playoff loss the Spurs are 4-0 SU and ATS L4. That goes back to last year's playoffs. They won those games by 18,36,23,22 against the Warriors, Heat, Mavs, and Blazers. The last time they lost B2B road/home in the playoffs was when the Thunder came back from 0-2 against them in 2012.
 
If the Thunder lose tonight I don't think they can win game 7. The home team wins game 7 like 75% of the time.
 
Have you guys seen Serge's chick.

serge-ibaka-keri-hilson-1_original.jpg
 
austinhous said:
What has changed since the Dec 21, 2013 game and the Jan 22, 2014 game? And for those worried about rest, the game in January was the second game of a B2B for the Thunder.
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Quite a lot. Kawhi Leonard missed the first game and only played a quarter in the 2nd one as that was the game he broke his finger. Splitter was also out during that 2nd game and Jeff Ayres started.

In both those games Reggie Jackson went off, and if he is out tonight I think it's a big loss. At home I expect the Spurs to shoot much better from 3 though I sure as hell ain't confident enough to lay the 4.
 
I honestly don't get this discussion. Can Spurs win? Yes. Will they? The odds are against them.

When was the last time that Spurs won against the Thunder, with Ibaka on the floor? It's been a while...

How this series is different from 2012? I'm sure we can find many things that are different, but the main things are there. 2 - 0 in Spurs favor in the first two games. Brooks reacting and Pop failed to react for 4 games straight.

I don't get all the talk about Pop being so much better and all that and that he will react. Yes, Pop is the better coach. I'm sure that even Brooks will admit it.
But, Brooks and Thunder do really well against the Spurs and at least in this H2H battle, Pop can't get the upper hand for some reason.

I don't believe that Pop failed to find the winning formula against the Thunder for three straight seasons, including playoff series and suddenly, within one day, found the winning formula.

Spurs can win against any rival, especially at home.

Thunder can get in to a bad day, Spurs at home can catch fire, but right now, Spurs are in trouble and I would give the Thunder 60% to win the series...
 
I think this is gonna be a white knuckle game, a one possession margin of victory at the end of the night therefore I put a little on Thunder +540 margin of victory between 1-5 and Spurs +450 margin of victory between 1-5.
 
I think he in the starting lineup playing with kd and Westbrook is just as valuable as Ibaka.
Without him it is sebolashu or butler ... Spurs won't cover seb.. And butler is hit or miss and slow..
 
Gregg Popovich said he will make a change to his starting lineup on Thursday night.

In traditional Pop fashion, he did not say what the change is going to be. He's obviously not going to move Tim Duncan, Tony Parker or Kawhi Leonard, so that leaves Danny Green or Tiago Splitter. Considering how Serge Ibaka has been a superstar on defense, adding a stretch four makes sense in place of Splitter. That said, Pop could really do anything.



 
24/17/18/17/35/28

The Spurs have won 9/10 @ home in the playoffs...every game in the last two series's...

the margins of victory have been: 24 points, 17 points, 18 points, 35 points, and 28 points...

Spurs have won every single game they have had to all season long (including b2b's in the reg. season when their number 1 was in jeopardy)

Pop has orchestrated one of the finest trails through an 82 game season and a grueling western conference playoffs in NBA history considering the age of his stars and the talent in the West. Saving his players legs for this contest cost them a 1/10 chance to pull out game 4 and guaranteed them victory in game 5. Westbrook and durant had 31 points in the 1H and were down 10. That's only because Jackson had an insanel 1Q. They probably would've won every Q by 10 had he not. Spurs now get a free shot at a demoralized Thunder who do NOT have the experience know how to just come back and play like SAS played tonight. And if they fail? They get to come back to the arena where they have won their last 6 contests by 139 points.

What am I saying? The San Antonio Spurs are a better team then the OKC Thunder. Plain and simple. Everything matters. And their coach factors in EVERYTHING. Brooks does not.

I invite any and all to argue this point.
 
I think that Thunder still have a shot at the series. This is home dominated series, but still, Game 7 is very unpredictable and Thunder are young and in my opinion just have better match ups.
 
divol said:
I think that Thunder still have a shot at the series. This is home dominated series, but still, Game 7 is very unpredictable and Thunder are young and in my opinion just have better match ups.
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thunder are young but they have no bench to speak of - their best bench player is in the starting 5 now with reggie. Game 7 at home, better coach and huge advantage with bench players is not what OKC wants.
 
I want to play OKC in game 6, but need to see Jackson's status. Announcers kept indicating that his ankle may have gotten worse as the game went on. My guess is Jackson plays for sure, but Brooks doesn't start him. OKC needs Jackson to give them a spark off the bench. The rest of the OKC starters should have no problem coming out of the gate strong at home, in a do or die situation.

Spurs performance in game 5 does not affect my opinion of the series at all. Spurs simply hit every shot they took. OKC home court should be electric on a weekend night with drunken fans. Think they take this back to SAS for an epic game 7.
 
Will be interesting to see if Brooks maybe inserts Adams into the starting lineup. That would really make his bench terrible with the addition of Perkins, but we'll see.

(And as side, unrelated note saw that Adams was the youngest of 18 children. Wow.)
 
i cant stand perkins. why can't he jump? he can't even clear a jump rope. everytime i watch him play i laugh my ass off. he was much better as a fatass on boston
 
raiderman said:
Not going to argue but hope they close it out in OKC. Game sevens are way to unpredictable.
Click to expand...

Since 1995 the home team in game seven is 28-9 SU (.757) and 24-13-0 ATS (.649). In round two or above: 15-4 SU (.789) and 12-7-0 ATS (.632). In round three or above: 6-1 SU (.857) and 5-2-0 ATS (.741). In round four: 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.
 
Pop made the change going to a "stretch 4" to take Ibaka out of the paint and on the perimeter. Brooks should say fuck it, go small and take Perkins out of the starting 5 and put Ibaka at the 5. Perkins is worthless anyways. But I doubt Brooks is capable of making an adjustment.
 
Spurs should just rest the starters for the 2h and go home and finish it off. Don't want too much rest anyway for the finals lol
 
okc 1st half over 52 - very large
2nd qtr over 51 - very large

if anyone should hear about lineup changes, injuries or similar please post.
both of these have potential for even bigger..
 
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