***Western Conference 1st Round Discussion Thread***

Jazz are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite.
Jazz are 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
Jazz are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas.
Jazz are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.
Dallas +5
 
As an aside, my only WC Future is Phoenix. No adding here either...

First of all, lets talk Jazz and Mavs... this will be my shortest paragraph because there is so much unknown due to the Luka injury. This would have been a pretty big series bet on Dallas with Doncic healthy but now we have what could be a wild ass 14 day series. I have no idea what to expect overall here. We'll see when he is back playing if any value pops up.

Memphis and Minnesota is such a fun series. I am looking forward to each and every game here. The Wolves are a lot of fun but their defense will need to really step up here to have any chance. I don't think they do. This one ends in 5, maybe 6 as the young Grizz get a nice taste of winning and start to become the hunted...Price is a little high here, but if I could find -300 I would entertain a bet.

Another series we have to deal with an injury is the Warriors and Nuggets series. Now, The Dubs at full strength were on a collision course with the Suns and still may be. The good part here, is they get the Nuggets, a team that is not that great. Their coach leaves a lot to be desired and the mix of this team just isn't wholly consistent. I still expect the Warriors to win this series but things will be interesting along the way.

Twinkies Pels made it through the mini-tournament and their reward is a date with the best team in the league, Phoenix. I would be pretty surprised at this not being a sweep. The Suns are the team to beat and should get some good practice in vs a Pelicans squad that simply is pretty average. Phoenix will have plenty of rest as they watch Utah and Dallas battle it out for a few weeks.
 
As far as betting.... look for inflated unders on live betting. We saw already this week Unders go a very easy 6-0....

Not all series, but you should get a pretty good idea early on of which totals are priced way off.

Oddsmakers have adjusted Dallas and Utah nicely.
 
B.A.R. said:
As an aside, my only WC Future is Phoenix. No adding here either...

First of all, lets talk Jazz and Mavs... this will be my shortest paragraph because there is so much unknown due to the Luka injury. This would have been a pretty big series bet on Dallas with Doncic healthy but now we have what could be a wild ass 14 day series. I have no idea what to expect overall here. We'll see when he is back playing if any value pops up.

Memphis and Minnesota is such a fun series. I am looking forward to each and every game here. The Wolves are a lot of fun but their defense will need to really step up here to have any chance. I don't think they do. This one ends in 5, maybe 6 as the young Grizz get a nice taste of winning and start to become the hunted...Price is a little high here, but if I could find -300 I would entertain a bet.

Another series we have to deal with an injury is the Warriors and Nuggets series. Now, The Dubs at full strength were on a collision course with the Suns and still may be. The good part here, is they get the Nuggets, a team that is not that great. Their coach leaves a lot to be desired and the mix of this team just isn't wholly consistent. I still expect the Warriors to win this series but things will be interesting along the way.

Twinkies Pels made it through the mini-tournament and their reward is a date with the best team in the league, Phoenix. I would be pretty surprised at this not being a sweep. The Suns are the team to beat and should get some good practice in vs a Pelicans squad that simply is pretty average. Phoenix will have plenty of rest as they watch Utah and Dallas battle it out for a few weeks.
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I feel like the Pels can maybe grab one game…which is it? Obviously the Suns been resting and the Pels had to do it the rough way. Can they cover Sunday night off the energy of making it in do they get drilled with 1 seed rested?
 
I kinda been stinking it up so far with playoff props, like 2-7 so far, lol. Need to make a few adjustments off regular season I guess but still think i can get it going!

No luka again tonight I like Brunson over 27.5 points/assist and Dinwiddie ov 21.5 points, mavs can’t afford to go down 0-2 at home even if they get luka back at some point, I think they be game tonight and it gotta be on these 2 to make it happen! Dinwiddie has played 3 games since joining mavs where luka was out and he has cleared that number in all of them. Went with points/assist w Brunson just cause I could see him coming just short the point total (22.5) in which case I think it be cause he distributing more, if he more of a scorer he should clear by enough to get this even if he doesn’t get the 5 assist accounting for the 27.5. I lean mavs w the points but think if they do win or cover these 2 will have to hit these totals, even if they fall short on scoreboard (like they did game 1) these 2 still could very well go over. Lean over the game total as well which should help considering they both got theirs in a really low scoring game 1.

Hate the spread on the nugs/warriors game, i just don’t think nugs have enough missing 2 of their 3 best players, asking too much of Jokic while gs entire focus be slowing him down. He will have to be way better tonight to keep nugs in it, I dunno if he can do it or not? On other side I just can’t lay -7.5 when I suspect warriors gonna try to win these games playing klay and steff as little as possible. Assuming that is the case and I can’t imagine why that wouldn’t be the goal I think it leaves Poole playing the most minutes in what appears gonna be his coming out party in these playoffs.

Poole ov28.5 “par” for me.

That all I have in the west tonight. Gl everyone!!
 
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I was kinda just assuming Ja gonna go HAM tonight and he very well might, he actually posted really good numbers in gm1 but when you look at all the other meetings w wolves this year he stunk it up in several of them! They asking for 43.5 “par” which is several points above his season averages (right around 39.6) while facing a team he hasn’t been very good against. I fully expect grizz will even this series up tonight but I’m not ready to lay -6.5 for game as minny playing with a crazy amount of confidence and they certainly not lacking talent! Memphis been beast in the 1st half this year and gotta think they gonna come out the gates with a intensity level that be hard for wolves to match, I think it far more likely grizz jump out but as the game goes and their intensity level drops off ya never know with the way wolves Jack treys, they get hot for a stretch and we could end up with a tight game late. Imo best way to attack this thing is memphis-4 1st half, if wolves are up at half after taking memphis best shot early I’d be worried bout laying -6.5 for game anyways! Of course if griz do fail to cover the half then we can always get a better number playing them at halftime (hopefully won’t have to worry bout that! Lol).
 
Looking at this Pels/suns game and trying to figure out if Pels keep this competitive enough where we see booker logging his typical minutes again? If so I think there pretty good value on booker over 36.5 “par”, unlike many the others stars this not a crazy asking price at all, pretty much right in line with his season averages, a tick below what he was in the playoffs last year, and below the 38 he accumulated while clearing this number in 4 of the 5 meetings with Pels this far this season (only falling short with 29 way back in November, not real worried bout what happened 6th game the season, lol). I think it worth a shot as I think this really comes down to Pels not being totally run out the gym. Book gets his minutes I think he clears this far more often than not. Gotta take advantage of spots where we can get a star without the inflated price tag.

Booker over 36.5 “par” -115
Booker ov 2.5 treys -135
 
2daBank said:
Looking at this Pels/suns game and trying to figure out if Pels keep this competitive enough where we see booker logging his typical minutes again? If so I think there pretty good value on booker over 36.5 “par”, unlike many the others stars this not a crazy asking price at all, pretty much right in line with his season averages, a tick below what he was in the playoffs last year, and below the 38 he accumulated while clearing this number in 4 of the 5 meetings with Pels this far this season (only falling short with 29 way back in November, not real worried bout what happened 6th game the season, lol). I think it worth a shot as I think this really comes down to Pels not being totally run out the gym. Book gets his minutes I think he clears this far more often than not. Gotta take advantage of spots where we can get a star without the inflated price tag.

Booker over 36.5 “par” -115
Booker ov 2.5 treys -135
Click to expand...
If they are blowing the Pels out to the point he sits the 4th, it's likely he hits that PAR in 3 quarters
 
2daBank said:
Looking at this Pels/suns game and trying to figure out if Pels keep this competitive enough where we see booker logging his typical minutes again? If so I think there pretty good value on booker over 36.5 “par”, unlike many the others stars this not a crazy asking price at all, pretty much right in line with his season averages, a tick below what he was in the playoffs last year, and below the 38 he accumulated while clearing this number in 4 of the 5 meetings with Pels this far this season (only falling short with 29 way back in November, not real worried bout what happened 6th game the season, lol). I think it worth a shot as I think this really comes down to Pels not being totally run out the gym. Book gets his minutes I think he clears this far more often than not. Gotta take advantage of spots where we can get a star without the inflated price tag.

Booker over 36.5 “par” -115
Booker ov 2.5 treys -135
Click to expand...
Good call, booker pra just got hammered
 
MGM and DraftKings have settled at 37.5 -105 it looks like

Caesars at 37.5 -130

Crazy mid-day movement on props
 
I only played 1 prop in the wolves/griz game and really don’t expect to hit it, just thought was worth a shot at the price. Ant and Ja both to score 30 +425. Guess I shoulda played it game1! Lol. I think it will happen again this series tho, so mighgt just add a little every game till it hits!
 
2daBank said:
I dunno why ya would want that? As is even without booker suns taking this series, I doubt zion changes that but why add a element of who knows into the mix?
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Thing NO has is chemistry. I believe he would destroy that.
 
KJ said:
Thing NO has is chemistry. I believe he would destroy that.
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Certainly possible but are you in any way worried bout this series as is? Just seems to me he brings unpredictability into the mix, could be bad, could be lightening in a bottle. I wouldn’t think they put him into starting lineup and what Pels have coming off the bench suspect isn’t good, he no doubt changes that.
 
2daBank said:
Certainly possible but are you in any way worried bout this series as is? Just seems to me he brings unpredictability into the mix, could be bad, could be lightening in a bottle. I wouldn’t think they put him into starting lineup and what Pels have coming off the bench suspect isn’t good, he no doubt changes that.
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Not sure, just believe he wouldn't make them better than they are now.

Doubt he actually comes back for this series anyway and I do like the Suns chances regardless of Book, the disrespect at opening them at -1 should be enough to get them prepped. Of course they know it opened there, whatever works.
 
KJ said:
Not sure, just believe he wouldn't make them better than they are now.

Doubt he actually comes back for this series anyway and I do like the Suns chances regardless of Book, the disrespect at opening them at -1 should be enough to get them prepped. Of course they know it opened there, whatever works.
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I don’t think any chance he plays, just talking for hell of it. Lol. If I was them I would play him. Not only cause I do think it adds unpredictability to the series but I don’t think the Mfer gonna stay in NO for longer than a year after he signs the max deal, might as well get what ya can out of him. I dunno how it would look on court but i think it would ratchet up the crowd to a even bigger frenzy!

Hadn’t seen gm3 line. -1 huh? That feels crazy to me! Suns deep, complete, and incredibly well coached with great leadership to boot! Imo There no damn way they let book being out cost them this series and after losing game 2 I expect they looking at gm3 a whole lot different now. This feels like a pound it then be prepared to chase gm4 if necessary. This could just make up for all the money booker injury cost me! Lol. That line shocking to me.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think any chance he plays, just talking for hell of it. Lol. If I was them I would play him. Not only cause I do think it adds unpredictability to the series but I don’t think the Mfer gonna stay in NO for longer than a year after he signs the max deal, might as well get what ya can out of him. I dunno how it would look on court but i think it would ratchet up the crowd to a even bigger frenzy!

Hadn’t seen gm3 line. -1 huh? That feels crazy to me! Suns deep, complete, and incredibly well coached with great leadership to boot! Imo There no damn way they let book being out cost them this series and after losing game 2 I expect they looking at gm3 a whole lot different now. This feels like a pound it then be prepared to chase gm4 if necessary. This could just make up for all the money booker injury cost me! Lol. That line shocking to me.
Click to expand...
Heritage actually opened at pk this morning, -1 was BOL last night. Looks like it's going to settle around -2-2.5 range
 
KJ said:
Heritage actually opened at pk this morning, -1 was BOL last night. Looks like it's going to settle around -2-2.5 range
Click to expand...

You feel strongly bout that? So far it hasn’t got any movement back the other way, surely there more ppl thinking same thing as us here. Im fine with -140 but if it creeps up much higher it getting real pricey for a money line chase if they do drop gm3 as they will no doubt be even more expensive gm4 in that scenario! Don’t think I want to be involved with laying the points, if it happens to be a one possession game at the end I don’t think -140 accurately portrays how much more likely cp3 gets the W!! You got me so excited with the -1! Lol.
 
2daBank said:
You feel strongly bout that? So far it hasn’t got any movement back the other way, surely there more ppl thinking same thing as us here. Im fine with -140 but if it creeps up much higher it getting real pricey for a money line chase if they do drop gm3 as they will no doubt be even more expensive gm4 in that scenario! Don’t think I want to be involved with laying the points, if it happens to be a one possession game at the end I don’t think -140 accurately portrays how much more likely cp3 gets the W!! You got me so excited with the -1! Lol.
Click to expand...
DK showing -1 at -110 and ML at -125

BOL and Bovada among others are showing -2.5
 
KJ said:
DK showing -1 at -110 and ML at -125

BOL and Bovada among others are showing -2.5
Click to expand...

Im so damn sleepy I need to take a nap before I deal with all this shit! Lol. typical bull shit nba 1st round, freaking game not till Friday, it be early May before any series going past 5 gets decided! Nba has always annoyed me w this shit!!!
 
KJ said:
I normally play ML as opposed to laying one but it's usually only a nickel higher. 15 cents I'll lay the point.
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5 cents I wouldn’t care much. 3x that kinda redic. Im suffering from sleep deprivation. at the moment so I can’t think of any reason why laying -1 matters to me more than paying less? Surely there a obvious reason escaping me! Lol
 
2daBank said:
5 cents I wouldn’t care much. 3x that kinda redic. Im suffering from sleep deprivation. at the moment so I can’t think of any reason why laying -1 matters to me more than paying less? Surely there a obvious reason escaping me! Lol
Click to expand...
If they win by one lol, you'd like that ML if it's close with a couple minutes left
 
KJ said:
If they win by one lol, you'd like that ML if it's close with a couple minutes left
Click to expand...

I’d be shocked if math works out to justify paying the extra 15 cents to avoid possibility of a push. That said I have dropped my phone 3x while texting this so I might be off!!
 
CP3 is 0-14 with Foster in the playoffs, makes more sense but it isn't just coincidence I believe
 
i heard luka practiced yesterday, isn’t +7 crazy if he plays? Honestly feels high even if he doesn’t. Dallas defense keeping them in these games, without luka they might lack the finisher they need but still think they capable of keeping the game tight.
 
Imo there no chance memphis doesn’t win at least 1 in minny, if not both. I’ll take them -1.5 all day and if it loses I’ll be tripling up on griz in gm4. you could make a case to wait, rare time I don’t really like griz 1st half here as you gotta think wolves will have the early energy in their building, Thing is laying less than a bucket im not willing to risk not having some of griz. I do expect there be chances to get them at plus money during game tho.
 
Think I’ll be looking at that Edwards and Ja both to score 30+ prop again as well. Pretty confident we see those 2 both do that at least 1 more time this series! Wanna get the +425ish when it happens!
 
Booker going to be out 2-3 weeks is the latest talk. Hopefully he gets back sooner rather than later, he’s an important part on that squad, obviously.

Shouldn’t be too concerning for the rest of the 1st round, but NO isn’t going to roll over so things could get dicey.
 
jedi ninja said:
Booker going to be out 2-3 weeks is the latest talk. Hopefully he gets back sooner rather than later, he’s an important part on that squad, obviously.

Shouldn’t be too concerning for the rest of the 1st round, but NO isn’t going to roll over so things could get dicey.
Click to expand...
Think you could argue NO will have 2 best players on the court with Booker out (based on CP being 36) NO wins game 3 look out.
 
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