i think if it weren't for all of the injuries being a huge question mark for mtsu coming into the season, the troy line would have been closer to troy -4. also, that is what i put the fau/mtsu line at the beginning of the season...fau -3.5, and despite the loss, i think it was the more accurate line. that mtsu/maryland game along with home teams killing it during the week had a lot to do with the line adjustment imo. those two things being said, i think an accurate line for this game would have been a pk or fau -1 here. i agree with kyle, the wrong team is favored
AFter some further research I agree with you and VK. I couldnt recall much of the Troy and MTSU game to be honest so had to reference back. Also wasnt aware much of the injuries questions either . Regardless of anything troy didnt whip MTSU like I thought they did. They got 2 key turnovers and the game was a TD late and Troy closed it off unlike FAU did. So I go with -6 being fair but I am 100% confident the fair line bewteen FAU @ MTSU last week was a PK and huge reason why I played FAU.
Anyway that would mean in my world the line should be Troy -2.5 at the highest so anything above is inflated in my world .
I think FAU has done some good things and its really tough to figure out Troy to there credit they didnt play that badly @ Ohio State but the Buckeyes have much improved since that game IMO . FAU has just been killed by sloppiness and turnovers. Again another reason why I took FAU last week thinking a softier opponent might help erase those mistakes but not so really . So now I am thinking being HOME wil help erase alot of the sloppiness bewteen dropped passes and turnovers and everything else .
Also sort of a must win now for FAU who had high expectations coming in like the Vikings in the NFL yesterday .
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=5>
Record When Scoring... (Since 2001)</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
20 OR MORE</TD><TD>
30 OR MORE</TD><TD>
40 OR MORE</TD><TD>
50 OR MORE</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD align=left>
TROY</TD><TD>
40-14-0</TD><TD>
18-3-0</TD><TD>
13-0-0</TD><TD>
1-0-0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD align=left>
FAU</TD><TD>
38-7-0</TD><TD>
25-1-0</TD><TD>
7-0-0</TD><TD>
2-0-0</TD></TR><TR class=colhead align=middle><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
LESS THAN 20</TD><TD>
LESS THAN 30</TD><TD>
LESS THAN 40</TD><TD>
LESS THAN 50</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD align=left>
TROY</TD><TD>
6-27-0</TD><TD>
28-38-0</TD><TD>
33-41-0</TD><TD>
45-41-0</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD align=left>
FAU</TD><TD>
4-39-0</TD><TD>
17-45-0</TD><TD>
35-46-0</TD><TD>
40-46-0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Noticed this chart on ESPN . Pretty sick that when scoring 30++ pts in a game FAU is 25-1 since 2001 . Good chance they do that here IMO . If they score just 20+ still an impressive 38-7 . Also Troy when failing to crack 20pts is only 6-27 and 28-38 when failing to crack 30++ ...FAU scored 30++ in a wain @ Troy last year and has a large returning core .
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=gamehead><TD colSpan=3>Team Stat Comparison</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD align=left> </TD><TD>
</TD><TD>
</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>1st Downs</TD><TD>16</TD><TD>20</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Total Yards</TD><TD>300</TD><TD>284</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Passing</TD><TD>136</TD><TD>200</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Rushing</TD><TD>164</TD><TD>84</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Penalties</TD><TD>4-29</TD><TD>5-53</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>3rd Down Conversions</TD><TD>4-13</TD><TD>6-19</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>4th Down Conversions</TD><TD>0-1</TD><TD>0-4</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Turnovers</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>2</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow align=middle><TD class=bi align=left>Possession</TD><TD>24:06</TD><TD>35:54</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Pretty unimpressive when you look at the game @ MTSU with Troy IMO . So Troy capitialized on the TWO 1st MTSU turnovers to take a 17-3 lead but also remember that MTSU settled for a 22yd FG if they make that a TD it holds more weight in how they actually played . Not sure exactly where thses turnovers took place because INFO is limited on these games as I cant find teh DRIVE CHARTS on any major sports sites but it says clearly the turnovers helped them build a 17-3 lead so its safe to say they led to 10 pts maybe 14 pts . Factor in the failure to punch it by MTSU and you know see that 14 pt lead quickly erased from teh 10-14 that Troy was handed and MTSU left 4 off the board .
Looking at Troy there issue seems to be handling opponents teams passing attacks. Thats how MTSU rallied , Pryor had 4 TD 's in his 1st college start and some nice sized ones distance wise , Zac Robinson had 3 TDs in the 1st 25 minutes of the game to build a 28-7 then they basically just ran it the rest of the way .
1st drive 4/5 43yds TD
2nd drive 3/3 30yds (consecutive false starts killed the drive)
3rd drive 1/1 17yds
4th drive 2/2 42yds TD
5th drive 1/1 44 yds TD
So up to this point again the 1st 25 minutes of play :
11/12 186yds 3Tds
add the 1st drive of the 1st H 2/2 38yds so 1st H 12/14 230yds 3 TD passes
Now Troy to there credit was okay on offense @ Ohio State really think 10 is about what they should have scored somewhere in teh 10-14 pt range . Then at okie State solid work IMO--
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>
Troy Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
9:37 </TD><TD class=c>
1:42 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 27</TD><TD class=c>
6</TD><TD class=c>
47</TD><TD class=c>
Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
5:06 </TD><TD class=c>
2:25 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 23</TD><TD class=c>
5</TD><TD class=c>
29</TD><TD class=c>
Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
0:23 </TD><TD class=c>
3:06 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 20</TD><TD class=c>
8</TD><TD class=c>
55</TD><TD class=c>
Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>
2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>
Start
Time</TH><TH>
Time
Poss</TH><TH>
Drive
Began</TH><TH>
# of
Plays</TH><TH>
Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>
Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
7:22 </TD><TD class=c>
2:10 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 27</TD><TD class=c>
6</TD><TD class=c>
73</TD><TD class=c>
TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>
2:45 </TD><TD class=c>
1:54 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 20</TD><TD class=c>
12</TD><TD class=c>
50</TD><TD class=c>
FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>
0:16 </TD><TD class=c>
0:16 </TD><TD class=c>
Troy 40</TD><TD class=c>
2</TD><TD class=c>
7</TD><TD class=c>
End Half</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
1st touch they fumble on a play starting at the OKST 26
2nd touch they get INT on a play starting at OKST 48
3rd touch they fumble on a play starting at the OKST 25
TD
47yd FG
end of Half
So they probably left out at least 6 points and maybe as many as 14 but doubt they would have scored both times as the offense just isnt that crisp . However they also allowed TDs on 5 of 6 possessions.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Florida Atlantic Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>15:00 </TD><TD class=c>2:40 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 40</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>21</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:48 </TD><TD class=c>2:07 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 20</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>40</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>3:08 </TD><TD class=c>1:20 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 18</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>74</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>0:36 </TD><TD class=c>2:12 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 39</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>47</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>8:55 </TD><TD class=c>1:35 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 16</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-2</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>3:18 </TD><TD class=c>1:38 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 32</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>68</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:35 </TD><TD class=c>0:35 </TD><TD class=c>FAU 30</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>-3</TD><TD class=c>End Half</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Now FAU @ Texas in the season opener for the OWLS . I would say playing @ Texas is tougher then @ Okie State and texas IMO is a better team and defense . Maybe some disagree I dont know.
They were helped by good position ...
1st touch play starting at the Texas 39 fumble (texas TD follows)
2nd touch drive ends at the Texas 40 on punt (texas TD follows)
3rd touch drive ends on an INT on a play started at the Texas 8
4th touch settle for a FG on a drive that ends at the Texas 16 (now 14-3)(texas TD follows 21-3)
5th touch 3 and out (Texas TD follows (28-3)
6th touch FAU TD (28-10)
Cant say Okie State didnt enjot good field position last week vs Troy but FAU had allowed 2 TDs from basically what was midfield . Also allowing 1 TD less .
The offense on all 5 possessions played well into Texas territory . Cant say the opening drive would have led to points but looking at how they moved it the entire half hard to believe they could at least get a FG attempt . Some better execution by FAU and maybe we see a closer game then 28-10 maybe 21-17 or 21-13,16 or 17....Anyway we know FAU talked alot going into that game and looks like once Texas scored to open teh 2nd H they jsut were flat ....
So IMO FAU played better at Texas then Troy did @ Okie State and probably played better @ MTSU then Troy did despite what the final says . Also think FAU played alot better at both Mich State and Minny then the score read .....
Bottomline : Huge game for FAU here and they also travel the next 2 weeks so ONLY home game in a 6 game stretch !!!!!!! They must win here for many obvious reasons / Does that mean they win ?? Of course not but does look alot like the situation Minnesotafaced last night in the NFL . A falw in Troys defense is there pass defense well Rusty Smith is the key to the FAU offense and is off some bad games now gets a game at home . Last year @ Troy Rusty had 291 yds 2TDs and no INts also a FRESHMAN he had 312 yds passing 2TDs and 2 INTS which there was no garbage pts either as it was 17-17 until Troy hit a huge pass play for a TD mid 3rd q which ended up the last score of thegame . All of Troys TD were big pass plays 70,67 , 54yds =191 yds of the 325 Haugabook threw that day . Troy was not very good on 3rd down going 3/14 but 2/4 on 4th and last year Troy was 5/16 on 3rd down but again 2/3 om 4th .
FAU really didnt lose much of anything from last year and Troy lost some key WRs and there QB. So hard to believe that FAU hasnt improved some and we see a tad weaker version of Troy here . The lines were -3 @ FAU when Smith was a freshman and +15 last year @ Troy which proved to be to much probably should have been about +10 @ FAU.....
Anyway very strong play on FAU +4 and ML is worth a decent sized shot IMO( personally not a huge fan of MLs unless they are +180 or better). No opinion on the total yet some stuff points to an over but the ole Tuesday Under comes into play .....also road teams have not traveled well midweek (Tue-Thurs)
BOL all !!!!!!!:cheers: