O
ontime23
Guest
Lets dissect this game and get a winner.
O
ontime23
Guest
troy -3.5 51.5 is line looks at glance the play is troy as FAU was horrible last week.
PURPLE & GOLD
Sporting my Footie Pajamas
I believe he is saying the number begs us to take Troy.
I thought the same thing looking to see who is out that is important for Troy.
Something has to give.
I thought the same thing looking to see who is out that is important for Troy.
Something has to give.
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I know a guy, and he told me that Troy is a good football team.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
FAu dominated mtsu .. take out the bs up for grab passes and mtsu had about 210 yards of offense.
they played road games against good bcs offenses texas , mich st , minnesota .. of course they are going to be rated low defensively.... but it is hardly a bad defense.
What has troy done to warrant road chalk to a team that returns everyone from the team that beat a superior troy team last year ??
And lets be real as far as troy averaging over 400 yards per game ... that includes alcorn state stats ... against okie st , tosu and mtsu they average 343 yards per game ... when you rack up 736 yards against a bad fcs school it makes the offense look better than it is.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
You also have the situation of a team in FAU that has been bad in the redzone but where that should not be systemic but flukish .... unlike say a nmsu where that team is always going to be better between the twenties than in the redzone. So a lot of FAu scores are deceiving to the naked eye.
in 14 RZ appearances they have just 4 td .... if you think that is a trend then we just disagree .. i think it is an anomoly as FAU has an offense that should do quite well in the RZ. Whereas Troy never seems to blow a chance near the endzone ... i think that is no fluke but at some point that kind of luck evens out and more importantly it often makes for deceiving finals involving these two teams resulting in soft lines. Unless you think there is a systemic reason or personnel reason that a team fails in the RZ , it should be looked at much like turnovers.
in 14 RZ appearances they have just 4 td .... if you think that is a trend then we just disagree .. i think it is an anomoly as FAU has an offense that should do quite well in the RZ. Whereas Troy never seems to blow a chance near the endzone ... i think that is no fluke but at some point that kind of luck evens out and more importantly it often makes for deceiving finals involving these two teams resulting in soft lines. Unless you think there is a systemic reason or personnel reason that a team fails in the RZ , it should be looked at much like turnovers.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
Can you guys get me away from this game ??? you all seem to like troy ... talk me out of an fau play.
i get the revenge angle ... and it is major revenge as after troy lost the conference to FAU they somehow got snubbed from a bowl game which is sad considering the great year they had and some of the teams that made bowls that were clearly inferior to troy. So yes .... revenge is huge but how do they matchup to win convincingly on the road ??
i get the revenge angle ... and it is major revenge as after troy lost the conference to FAU they somehow got snubbed from a bowl game which is sad considering the great year they had and some of the teams that made bowls that were clearly inferior to troy. So yes .... revenge is huge but how do they matchup to win convincingly on the road ??
Well in fairness Troy was -6 @ MTSU and they played better then FAU did there last week. Who was +2.5 . So if the difference is 8.5 pts and the HFA goes to FAU then why didnt we see -5 here or there abouts . I do think from many reactions the feeling is Troy is to cheap . Well if the line should be about -5 and people are running to -3.5 then something here is off . Troy has regressed maybe and FAU off some tough losses and a crushing conference loss is in desperation mode facing a team it beat last year away and has confidence versus.
I agree very much with the FAU red zone comments as a main reason why I saw them as undervalued @ FAU. Still though no improvement shown .
Road teams have struggled midweek and Tuesday is under day .........
font know what to think yet
I agree very much with the FAU red zone comments as a main reason why I saw them as undervalued @ FAU. Still though no improvement shown .
Road teams have struggled midweek and Tuesday is under day .........
font know what to think yet
O
O-State
Guest
If this was a Saturday game would so many have action riding
Capt. Slap
1st year apprentice of Sammy
No, but a game like this is exactly why we DO gamble...
A.) We love being right
B.) We love having action on a game, especially a weeknight prime-time one
C.) We love winning money
D.) Combo of all 3
nawlins51
I bet Basketball
I took Troy.I might be wrong but every way I figure this out has Troy covering. I capped it Troy covering,I am confident in Troy covering and I am going with Troy. Piss on it if I lose but got to go with the way I do things. I would have elaborated more on the game but I see some did that for me..lol
madshooter
Nascar Connoisseur
lets not forget , its tuesday , which means UNDER
broadwayjoe
May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
i think if it weren't for all of the injuries being a huge question mark for mtsu coming into the season, the troy line would have been closer to troy -4. also, that is what i put the fau/mtsu line at the beginning of the season...fau -3.5, and despite the loss, i think it was the more accurate line. that mtsu/maryland game along with home teams killing it during the week had a lot to do with the line adjustment imo. those two things being said, i think an accurate line for this game would have been a pk or fau -1 here. i agree with kyle, the wrong team is favored
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Another factor to consider is TRUST--
can we trust TROY? We all learned last week that you could not trust FAU to win the game outright even though they basically shut the other team down--
Also we couldnt trust MTSU because their coach turned retarded during the game--
I find that this is the usual scenario in these games--
Troy or the team in the favorite role is either much better and has advantages on OFFENSE and can outscore the HOME DOG--
Otherwise i find that the team in TROYS spot is not worthy of the favorite role for a few reasons--
-Usually they are not a good team to begin with
-Betting on them as the favorite is hard because they stink
-Line is based on wins vs losses and public perception
-Coaching is suspect on these teams so laying is always tough
-Small schools dont win too many road games when favored
I saw that FAU basically dominated MTSU all game of D, you cannot compare the games they played vs BCS schools, compare how they played vs their own teams.
can we trust TROY? We all learned last week that you could not trust FAU to win the game outright even though they basically shut the other team down--
Also we couldnt trust MTSU because their coach turned retarded during the game--
I find that this is the usual scenario in these games--
Troy or the team in the favorite role is either much better and has advantages on OFFENSE and can outscore the HOME DOG--
Otherwise i find that the team in TROYS spot is not worthy of the favorite role for a few reasons--
-Usually they are not a good team to begin with
-Betting on them as the favorite is hard because they stink
-Line is based on wins vs losses and public perception
-Coaching is suspect on these teams so laying is always tough
-Small schools dont win too many road games when favored
I saw that FAU basically dominated MTSU all game of D, you cannot compare the games they played vs BCS schools, compare how they played vs their own teams.
3rd & Long
Tom Brady is a douchebag
Huge trend for under on the Tuesday night games. I think a lot of it has to do with the short week for preparation, but this has been really solid for several seasons.
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Both teams have had 10 days to get ready.
Not arguing with the trend, just with the short week theory.
PURPLE & GOLD
Sporting my Footie Pajamas
Fixed it!
Let's keep one thing in mind. The kids playing in this game tonight are playing at these two schools for one reason or another. The reasoning is not likely to be because they can be trusted.
hilldog11
Routinely spreads falsehoods via his avatar
I'm actually leaning on the over at this point. I thinks Troys Offense will have an easier time scoring than MTSU did. But I think the FAU will get some scores in as well. If I had to pick a side I'd go with the home dog. But The over seems safer to me. But I don't like going against the tues under deal but oh well.
TopDaddy
Pretty much a regular
And don't forget that it's "Interactive Tuesday" so we get to vote on who's gonna win 14 times throughout the course of the game, along with all these ass clowns who say stuff like "I like cheese, War Eagle" and get it scrolled across the top of the screen all game long. So taking that into account, I'm thinking Troy for this one...
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
This game comes down to Troy's weak rush defense vs. FAU's "ok" rushing game. FAU won't be able to throw it around the lot vs. Troy. I don't think this line begs anything... Troy -6 would be crazy on the road vs. a pretty much equal team that beat them last year as an underdog.
Troy, though has played superior competition and seen superior offenses. FAU held MState in check b/c MState played 1960's football against them.
If Troy spreads them out, and somehow figures out how to hold a below average rushing game in check... They should be able to win this one.
FAU should have won last week by 21... so that score is scewed...
Leaning under and Troy right now...
Troy, though has played superior competition and seen superior offenses. FAU held MState in check b/c MState played 1960's football against them.
If Troy spreads them out, and somehow figures out how to hold a below average rushing game in check... They should be able to win this one.
FAU should have won last week by 21... so that score is scewed...
Leaning under and Troy right now...
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
the fact that the FAU defense held MTSU to basically 7 pts (sans the hail mary) with the field position that MTSU had that entire game says alot about the group IMO...really a must win spot for FAU...but also revenge angle for Troy..
I too lean FAU here...
and OMG interactive Tuesday...it's freaking unbearable.....I wonder if Sarah Palin will give one of her patented shout outs on the top of the screen though.
I too lean FAU here...
and OMG interactive Tuesday...it's freaking unbearable.....I wonder if Sarah Palin will give one of her patented shout outs on the top of the screen though.
nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
if you give me this # at the beginning of the year on FAU i probably make it my largest play of the year
they have so under-performed it's ridiculous
but having watched smith a few times this year, he's turned a complete 360 from last year
about the defense - they've gotten a couple key components back in the starting lineup the last few weeks too.
they have so under-performed it's ridiculous
but having watched smith a few times this year, he's turned a complete 360 from last year
about the defense - they've gotten a couple key components back in the starting lineup the last few weeks too.
boredlife
Pretty much a regular
I'd be all over FAU if I had any faith in Rusty Smith. I'd never seen a QB throw leaning backwards off his back foot as much as he does. Last year his TD/INT ratio was 32/9. This year its 4/7.
"Smith's statistics reflect his struggles, as he is ranked 102nd in the Football Bowl Subdivision with a quarterback rating of 104.54 and his 48.1 percent completion rating has him 110th. "There are a lot of things you can try and put your finger on but you can't really say that. Things obviously going through your mind that you think are the reason," said Smith, who has thrown seven interceptions, six in the last two games".
"Smith's statistics reflect his struggles, as he is ranked 102nd in the Football Bowl Subdivision with a quarterback rating of 104.54 and his 48.1 percent completion rating has him 110th. "There are a lot of things you can try and put your finger on but you can't really say that. Things obviously going through your mind that you think are the reason," said Smith, who has thrown seven interceptions, six in the last two games".
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
Rusty definetely looks like a different QB...I was very impressed the FAU rb last week though...has good vision and good speed on the edge...
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
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</TD><TD id=score width=50>10/7
8:00P
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102 Florida Atlantic
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48.5 -105
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nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
both teams had 10 days last week too i believe.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
few quick hits......
Smith is completing < 50% of his passes, and that horrible Bernie Kosar-esqu delivery is not good. 4/7 ratio is not good.
Hampton is completing ~ 63% of his passes.
Troy has outgained every one of their opponents, except OK State (no surprise there)
FAU barely outgained MTSU last week, but if memory serves, MTSU spent the entire game in FAU's half of the field and couldn't muster crap on offense.
Troy was a 6 point favorite @ MTSU. FAU was + 2.5 @ MSTU, all things being equal, that would lend a thought to Troy being an 8.5 favorite on a neutral field.
The line at -3.5 seems to me to be asking the public to play Troy. Ordinarily, I would wait for 4 and take the home dog. But, I have not at all been enamored with Rusty Smith's performance this year and see no reason it changes in this game. Troy's defense is good and used to playing against superior opponents (Ohio State and Ok state). Troy has already played 3 out of 4 on the road, and have had an extra three days of rest, so I think that is in their favor being that they will not be intimidated and a few extras days off.
I'll take the more dynamic QB here (Hampton) and hope the Troy defense can get pressure on Smith. Laying 3.5 here with the road favorite.
Cheers.
Smith is completing < 50% of his passes, and that horrible Bernie Kosar-esqu delivery is not good. 4/7 ratio is not good.
Hampton is completing ~ 63% of his passes.
Troy has outgained every one of their opponents, except OK State (no surprise there)
FAU barely outgained MTSU last week, but if memory serves, MTSU spent the entire game in FAU's half of the field and couldn't muster crap on offense.
Troy was a 6 point favorite @ MTSU. FAU was + 2.5 @ MSTU, all things being equal, that would lend a thought to Troy being an 8.5 favorite on a neutral field.
The line at -3.5 seems to me to be asking the public to play Troy. Ordinarily, I would wait for 4 and take the home dog. But, I have not at all been enamored with Rusty Smith's performance this year and see no reason it changes in this game. Troy's defense is good and used to playing against superior opponents (Ohio State and Ok state). Troy has already played 3 out of 4 on the road, and have had an extra three days of rest, so I think that is in their favor being that they will not be intimidated and a few extras days off.
I'll take the more dynamic QB here (Hampton) and hope the Troy defense can get pressure on Smith. Laying 3.5 here with the road favorite.
Cheers.
nropp11
Vice-President of Fondy Fanclub
didnt fau beat troy last year for the conference?
Dmoney416
Ben Mauk's Counsel
FAU played last Tues, so they have had less that that.
dylanphan
Pretty much a regular
For the record, the revenge angle was also there in MTSU - Troy, as Troy spanked them 45-7 last year in Troy. Troy was a 6 point favorite against MTSU and beat them by 14. There is something to the revenge angle sometimes, but I don't put much into it most of the time.
hoopsstar22
Captain of Vanzack's yacht
I don't buy into revenge 95% of the time.
There are some instances where it does carry substance.
For instance, in the FCS, last season App State beat James Madison by 1 in the playoffs, because JMU fumbled the ball at the 2 yard line, with 40 seconds left, about to punch it in, after dominating them the entire game.
That is a game that garners the "revenge" aspect.
I don't buy into 2 bullshit schools, playing a game early in conference play, revenge.
There are some instances where it does carry substance.
For instance, in the FCS, last season App State beat James Madison by 1 in the playoffs, because JMU fumbled the ball at the 2 yard line, with 40 seconds left, about to punch it in, after dominating them the entire game.
That is a game that garners the "revenge" aspect.
I don't buy into 2 bullshit schools, playing a game early in conference play, revenge.
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Well I'll tell you this, them losing LY to FAU and end their season is a big deal. They won't take tonight off as a result. Expect as strong an effort as you can give out of Troy. They def. had this one circled. Not saying they are the right side, or are going to play with crazy "revenge". But losing LY matters. Just b/c this team "sucks" you think they don't have the same drive or personality traits as BCS schools? I don't know about that... perhaps maybe more so.
Troy won't overlook tonight, and you can credit that, to whatever you like. Some people will call it revenge.
