Week One (Regular Season) Discussion

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Staff member
With the schedule released, we can get an idea what the linesmakers are thinking this far out. The fun part with the NFL, we can see totals as well...

This should be fun to look back at come late August and see how much these have changed...


Kansas City -7 and 54.5 vs Detroit

Atlanta -3 and 43.5 vs Carolina

Baltimore -10 and 44.5 vs Houston

Cincinnati -2.5 and 48 @ Cleveland

Jacksonville -3.5 and 44 @ Indianapolis

Minnesota -7 and 46 vs Tampa Bay

New Orleans -3.5 and 41.5 vs Tennessee

San Francisco -3.5 and 41 @ Pittsburgh

Washington -6.5 and 40 vs Arizona

Chicago -3 and 45 vs Green Bay

Denver -3.5 and 45 vs Las Vegas

LA Chargers -2.5 and 50.5 vs Miami

Philadelphia -4.5 and 46 @ New England

Seattle -6 and 46 vs LA Rams

Dallas -3 and 47 @ NY Giants

Buffalo -1.5 and 46 @ NY Jets
 
Few quick reactions...


Jets are already gathering a lot of respect...

Carolina may be the best team in that division but the QB question is there... Otherwise that would be value...

Aggressive total at Arrowhead...

Minnesota and Baltimore are the week one teaser special...

The Chicago and Green Bay line means the books see those teams very similar... I agree...

Jacksonville a road favorite, and a deserving one. That's a 4/4.5 by end of camp...

Washington and Zona is the type of game you watch only as a true diehard... That total may be 3-4 points too high...
 
Saints are the best team in that division imo and would like them at that number week 1
Bears also a decent price, better team at home laying just 3
Jets getting too much respect for that part of the season. They might be up there with Buffalo later but hard to think that they deserve that week 1 though jets might be hard to prepare for too. Still.
Houston getting 10 is probably the easiest bet to make (I know how that usually goes)


Good luck beating that league. Anything can happen.


P.S. zero handicapping or knowledge went into the above opinions.
 
RetroVK said:
Saints are the best team in that division imo and would like them at that number week 1
Bears also a decent price, better team at home laying just 3
Jets getting too much respect for that part of the season. They might be up there with Buffalo later but hard to think that they deserve that week 1 though jets might be hard to prepare for too. Still.
Houston getting 10 is probably the easiest bet to make (I know how that usually goes)


Good luck beating that league. Anything can happen.


P.S. zero handicapping or knowledge went into the above opinions.
Click to expand...

Yeah Saints are by far the best in that division by a wide margin.

Panthers likely see a coaching downgrade. Wilkes is a stud.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah Saints are by far the best in that division by a wide margin.

Panthers likely see a coaching downgrade. Wilkes is a stud.
Click to expand...
Now that we have a week 1 of preseason in the books....does that influence anyone's week 1 thoughts ? ....never followed preseason much before myself..but hard to think first stringers performance in preseason doesn't show some correlation to week 1 ?

Example wilkes.....49ers defense has not played well in camp. Vs own offense and vs raiders in practice.

Now look at steelers....first string offense went right down the field vs tampa for a td.

Love the job Wilkes did in carolina last year....but I think its noteworthy he might of been the worst defensive coordinator in entire d1 football at Missouri too.
 
EL CAPO said:
Now that we have a week 1 of preseason in the books....does that influence anyone's week 1 thoughts ? ....never followed preseason much before myself..but hard to think first stringers performance in preseason doesn't show some correlation to week 1 ?

Example wilkes.....49ers defense has not played well in camp. Vs own offense and vs raiders in practice.

Now look at steelers....first string offense went right down the field vs tampa for a td.

Love the job Wilkes did in carolina last year....but I think its noteworthy he might of been the worst defensive coordinator in entire d1 football at Missouri too.
Click to expand...
His one year here as HC was one for the ages with Rosen starting
 
Yeah I’m worried about the 9ers defense. Fortunately it’s all been without the best defensive player in football.
 
How can ya lay -6.5 w kc? They go out of their way to not cover and lions will continue biting kneecaps no matter the score till they back inside number.

Few super square friends of mine have already text me saying how great the jets are and they gonna bet them every game. Naturally I’m super tempted to play bills!! I assume Von Miller won’t be playing week 1? do bills have other guys who can take advantage of jets line? Rodgers had a above average to very good line basically the entire time in gb, he might seem all happy now but how long will that last if he facing instant pressure? This ain’t a dude who been known for overcoming adversity!! He the same front running, blame everyone else and pout when things not perfect little bitch he always been, don’t let this happy face he putting on fool ya, the 1st joint practice and we’re already reports bout his “frustration”, that will only get worse! End of day I do think jets be competing for a playoff birth but the early schedule is pretty tough and you gotta be crazy to think it just all gonna be perfect right out the gates, the question will be how much imperfect can double bitch take before he turns back into the perennial whiner we know he is.
 
Inspekdah said:
Steelers offer nothing offensively to challenge the 9ers defense. This will be the first of 100 wins for Sam Darnold in red and gold.
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You don’t like Pickett? I’d take him over Darnold all day every day. They been doing all this drooling over Darnold this camp then he puts up how many points on raiders 3rd stringers? I’m sure shanny showing next to nothing but this guy doesn’t complete 60% his passes in the nfl, that the same issue they already have with Lance, the reason purdy works for Shanny cause he does complete at a high clip.
 
This Saints offense can be pretty damn good I think. If they had a say, Trevor Lawrence level QB I think they would be a real threat to make a good run. If Carr plays slightly above his ability Saints can be pretty good.
 
twinkie13 said:
This Saints offense can be pretty damn good I think. If they had a say, Trevor Lawrence level QB I think they would be a real threat to make a good run. If Carr plays slightly above his ability Saints can be pretty good.
Click to expand...
I think Carr is in that class ....I'd put him in the matthew Stafford tier. That team severely underperformed last season defensively too. Liked titans myself but tossupy game the 3 good chance of being in play.

Preseason takeaways for week one

Stroud looks like he will be in over his head vs the ravens defense. Remember the Harbaugh braintrust did the same at michigan.

Panthers offense looks less creative and worse then last year tho no fault of Bryce Young. Russ still looks cooked. Bears defense looks like trash still. Commanders offense looks alot better then I thought. Sam howell on the move is special.

I think there's a few inflated lines for week 1
Tampa 6.5.....this line only is where it is due to brady departure. I think value on bucs. Their ol did look bad in preseason tho.

Packers ....same reason above. I think losing rodgers is being overvalued.

Raiders 4....Sean payton has inflated the heck out of this line of where it should be imo. And I'm not so sure brees isnt the one who helped make payton.

coule make an argument bill obrien is suppressing a line that should be closer to 7. There is no talent to work with on that offense except the rookie demario douglass.
 
twinkie13 said:
This Saints offense can be pretty damn good I think. If they had a say, Trevor Lawrence level QB I think they would be a real threat to make a good run. If Carr plays slightly above his ability Saints can be pretty good.
Click to expand...
Agree
 
EL CAPO said:
I think Carr is in that class ....I'd put him in the matthew Stafford tier. That team severely underperformed last season defensively too. Liked titans myself but tossupy game the 3 good chance of being in play.

Preseason takeaways for week one

Stroud looks like he will be in over his head vs the ravens defense. Remember the Harbaugh braintrust did the same at michigan.

Panthers offense looks less creative and worse then last year tho no fault of Bryce Young. Russ still looks cooked. Bears defense looks like trash still. Commanders offense looks alot better then I thought. Sam howell on the move is special.

I think there's a few inflated lines for week 1
Tampa 6.5.....this line only is where it is due to brady departure. I think value on bucs. Their ol did look bad in preseason tho.

Packers ....same reason above. I think losing rodgers is being overvalued.

Raiders 4....Sean payton has inflated the heck out of this line of where it should be imo. And I'm not so sure brees isnt the one who helped make payton.

coule make an argument bill obrien is suppressing a line that should be closer to 7. There is no talent to work with on that offense except the rookie demario douglass.
Click to expand...

Great thoughts here
 
twinkie13 said:
This Saints offense can be pretty damn good I think. If they had a say, Trevor Lawrence level QB I think they would be a real threat to make a good run. If Carr plays slightly above his ability Saints can be pretty good.
Click to expand...

They really should win that division. I like Carr, in the NFC he looks even better seeing how there very few elite qbs. Havnt put much thought into it but there can’t be more than 2-3 nfc qb’s much better than him. If the d plays anything like it used to they be contenders in nfc, Thomas actually back healthy and giving a shit should be a big season, him along with the last 2 wrs they drafted should be a very tough cover! Perry looked good and I thought he def could be, along with olave quite a trio.
 
2daBank said:
You don’t like Pickett? I’d take him over Darnold all day every day. They been doing all this drooling over Darnold this camp then he puts up how many points on raiders 3rd stringers? I’m sure shanny showing next to nothing but this guy doesn’t complete 60% his passes in the nfl, that the same issue they already have with Lance, the reason purdy works for Shanny cause he does complete at a high clip.
Click to expand...

I like Pickett. Comparing him to Darnold is pathetic for Pickett lol.

But Pickett's not the guy that the 9ers typically struggle with and their power run game is easier to defend than a speed attack. That's all. But right now 9ers defense is sort of lost transitioning from Ryans to whatever Wilkes is doing.
 
2daBank said:
They really should win that division. I like Carr, in the NFC he looks even better seeing how there very few elite qbs. Havnt put much thought into it but there can’t be more than 2-3 nfc qb’s much better than him. If the d plays anything like it used to they be contenders in nfc, Thomas actually back healthy and giving a shit should be a big season, him along with the last 2 wrs they drafted should be a very tough cover! Perry looked good and I thought he def could be, along with olave quite a trio.
Click to expand...

Yeah there's no way they don't win that division. Young will take time in Carolina and I think motivation wise they have a coaching downgrade. Bucs tanking for Caleb and Falcons are going to be hard to predict but I can't see Ridder winning 10 games.
 
EL CAPO said:
I think Carr is in that class ....I'd put him in the matthew Stafford tier. That team severely underperformed last season defensively too. Liked titans myself but tossupy game the 3 good chance of being in play.

Preseason takeaways for week one

Stroud looks like he will be in over his head vs the ravens defense. Remember the Harbaugh braintrust did the same at michigan.

Panthers offense looks less creative and worse then last year tho no fault of Bryce Young. Russ still looks cooked. Bears defense looks like trash still. Commanders offense looks alot better then I thought. Sam howell on the move is special.

I think there's a few inflated lines for week 1
Tampa 6.5.....this line only is where it is due to brady departure. I think value on bucs. Their ol did look bad in preseason tho.

Packers ....same reason above. I think losing rodgers is being overvalued.

Raiders 4....Sean payton has inflated the heck out of this line of where it should be imo. And I'm not so sure brees isnt the one who helped make payton.

coule make an argument bill obrien is suppressing a line that should be closer to 7. There is no talent to work with on that offense except the rookie demario douglass.
Click to expand...

Raiders looked engaged top to bottom yesterday. Jimmy didn't play well @ Denver last year but it was his first full start.
 
Have following, all few months ago. Try to go very light 1st week.

Denver -3 -130
TB +7.5 -120
3u on Jacksonville to win division at -160

Not horrible numbers though saw Jacksonville down to -135 recently. Thought that should be -200 minimum but guess not. Denver is pure raider fade and have seen at 5 recently.

Probably play some teasers close to game time.
 
lvmike32 said:
Have following, all few months ago. Try to go very light 1st week.

Denver -3 -130
TB +7.5 -120
3u on Jacksonville to win division at -160

Not horrible numbers though saw Jacksonville down to -135 recently. Thought that should be -200 minimum but guess not. Denver is pure raider fade and have seen at 5 recently.

Probably play some teasers close to game time.
Click to expand...
With ya on Jacksonville (you got me to really dig in to be honest).
 
B.A.R. said:
With ya on Jacksonville (you got me to really dig in to be honest).
Click to expand...
Just think its a great bet. Lawrence 3rd year, Pedersen 2nd year, Ridley there, 2 rookie qb in division, etc. Hopkins signing with titans sucked. Still cant see them not winning it though barring serious injury. Glad you joined me. Makes me feel better about it. Hopefully u got closer to the -135 i saw.
 
Inspekdah said:
I like Pickett. Comparing him to Darnold is pathetic for Pickett lol.

But Pickett's not the guy that the 9ers typically struggle with and their power run game is easier to defend than a speed attack. That's all. But right now 9ers defense is sort of lost transitioning from Ryans to whatever Wilkes is doing.
Click to expand...

I still think niners one of only 2-3 nfc teams good enough to go to the SB but i just can’t see playing against Steelers as home dogs with a team I assume won’t have their starting qb at that point? Or If they do he won’t have had much time to get any rust off. I see Steelers +3 atm, that seems crazy to me, so they would be getting well over a td at SF? I can’t see myself betting against pitt against anyone w that kinda line.
 
Inspekdah said:
I like Pickett. Comparing him to Darnold is pathetic for Pickett lol.

But Pickett's not the guy that the 9ers typically struggle with and their power run game is easier to defend than a speed attack. That's all. But right now 9ers defense is sort of lost transitioning from Ryans to whatever Wilkes is doing.
Click to expand...

I still think niners one of only 2-3 nfc teams good enough to go to the SB but i just can’t see playing against Steelers as home dogs with a team I assume won’t have their starting qb at that point? Or If they do he won’t have had much time to get any rust off. I see Steelers +3 atm, that seems crazy to me, so they would be getting well over a td at SF? I can’t see myself betting against pitt vs anyone w that kinda line. Was it last year they were getting around a td week 1 at bills and won outright?
 
2daBank said:
I still think niners one of only 2-3 nfc teams good enough to go to the SB but i just can’t see playing against Steelers as home dogs with a team I assume won’t have their starting qb at that point? Or If they do he won’t have had much time to get any rust off. I see Steelers +3 atm, that seems crazy to me, so they would be getting well over a td at SF? I can’t see myself betting against pitt against anyone w that kinda line.
Click to expand...

Purdy is practicing this week without any restrictions. He was taking every other day off last week. He could be rusty from no pre season action as I don’t expect him to play. But he will be starting as long as he doesn’t literally “melt” as Kyle jokingly said.

The Purdy injury angle doesn’t concern me as much as the Raiders apparently threw around the 9ers in the joint practices and some involved starters.

I’ve said it before Jimmy G is a glowing power source of optimism for any team he plays for and the teams just play better. Raiders will be better on defense because GQ is their QB!
 
Inspekdah said:
Purdy is practicing this week without any restrictions. He was taking every other day off last week. He could be rusty from no pre season action as I don’t expect him to play. But he will be starting as long as he doesn’t literally “melt” as Kyle jokingly said.

The Purdy injury angle doesn’t concern me as much as the Raiders apparently threw around the 9ers in the joint practices and some involved starters.

I’ve said it before Jimmy G is a glowing power source of optimism for any team he plays for and the teams just play better. Raiders will be better on defense because GQ is their QB!
Click to expand...


Jimmy G def has a leadership quality about him that gets overlooked by most, that seems indisputable to me.

I didn’t realize Purdy was practicing that much now, yea I don’t think the fact he not playing preseason is a huge deal, especially if he taking snaps in the joint practices? Still wouldn’t expect niners offense or d to be clicking on all cylinders out the gates but still have a few weeks to work things out. End of the day it more bout Steelers for me, as I said I can’t imagine being against them getting a fg at home against anyone. They always competitive under Tomlin and I think there a decent chance they a playoff team this year, only real obstacle i see is the afc is brutally deep! Far as Steelers themselves they appear on a upward trajectory to me.
 
2daBank said:
Jimmy G def has a leadership quality about him that gets overlooked by most, that seems indisputable to me.

I didn’t realize Purdy was practicing that much now, yea I don’t think the fact he not playing preseason is a huge deal, especially if he taking snaps in the joint practices? Still wouldn’t expect niners offense or d to be clicking on all cylinders out the gates but still have a few weeks to work things out. End of the day it more bout Steelers for me, as I said I can’t imagine being against them getting a fg at home against anyone. They always competitive under Tomlin and I think there a decent chance they a playoff team this year, only real obstacle i see is the afc is brutally deep! Far as Steelers themselves they appear on a upward trajectory to me.
Click to expand...
He threw 3 picks in his first joint practice last week, something worth monitoring. Elbow is going to take time to get to full strength, it's kind of a fluke injury.
 
KJ said:
He threw 3 picks in his first joint practice last week, something worth monitoring. Elbow is going to take time to get to full strength, it's kind of a fluke injury.
Click to expand...

Very flukey, I can only recall a couple qbs the last 20 years that had it. he had Tommy John didn’t he? That was what happened right, he blew his elbow out getting hit while he was throwing?
 
2daBank said:
Very flukey, I can only recall a couple qbs the last 20 years that had it. he had Tommy John didn’t he? That was what happened right, he blew his elbow out getting hit while he was throwing?
Click to expand...
Yeah I think that's right. Not sure about TJ but if that's the case he might be better off down the road. Gotta tread lightly for now so I expect teams will be playing press defense early on in the season trying to cut down on the short passes.
 
KJ said:
Yeah I think that's right. Not sure about TJ but if that's the case he might be better off down the road. Gotta tread lightly for now so I expect teams will be playing press defense early on in the season trying to cut down on the short passes.
Click to expand...

That why I assumed he wouldn’t be playing week 1. I know the throwing motion a lot different for qb and pitcher but this a really fast turn around if he did have TJ. Pitchers usually take a year and half before they right. Maybe he didn’t have TJ? @Inspekdah ?
 
Heard multiple radio shows talk about the Jets Oline looking atrocious today vs joint practice Vs Tampa today. On the heals of Saleh blasting the Oline like a day ago
 
twinkie13 said:
Heard multiple radio shows talk about the Jets Oline looking atrocious today vs joint practice Vs Tampa today. On the heals of Saleh blasting the Oline like a day ago
Click to expand...

I mean he can yell and call them all the names he wants, it isn’t gonna make them more talented! The big big problem other than the fact he just tore them down in front of everyone w no effect is the fact tampa dLine isn’t exactly full of all pro’s! At least getting whipped by panthers they have some pretty talented dudes.
 
2daBank said:
I mean he can yell and call them all the names he wants, it isn’t gonna make them more talented! The big big problem other than the fact he just tore them down in front of everyone w no effect is the fact tampa dLine isn’t exactly full of all pro’s! At least getting whipped by panthers they have some pretty talented dudes.
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I kind of don’t remember last year how they played…sounds like a big problem if true.
They made it sound like every completion was a dump off
 
Purdy since being shaky has looked great in camp last week. I expect 9ers offense to score easily, even @ Pitt. If Bosa is back, they should simply sit Kenny till Week 2.

Also, there's no value with the Colts vs. Jags. They're a mess of an organization with a bad owner and a QB who cannot pass - 6/17 1h vs. Eagles backups.
 
Inspekdah said:
Purdy since being shaky has looked great in camp last week. I expect 9ers offense to score easily, even @ Pitt. If Bosa is back, they should simply sit Kenny till Week 2.

Also, there's no value with the Colts vs. Jags. They're a mess of an organization with a bad owner and a QB who cannot pass - 6/17 1h vs. Eagles backups.
Click to expand...

I really dunno why you keep being so willing to dismiss Steelers. Them gettin points at home is a solid bet. I sure couldn’t see laying it and I like niners too, just think Steelers gonna be better than you think. You keep talking like niners are just gonna work them, I don’t see it.

I liked the idea of colts week 1 but not so much w the stuff going on with Taylor. I wouidnt be to tough on Richardson tonight, I didn’t watch but I thought it prob be tough for him even against backups cause Philly knows the system colts running very well.
 
2daBank said:
I really dunno why you keep being so willing to dismiss Steelers. Them gettin points at home is a solid bet. I sure couldn’t see laying it and I like niners too, just think Steelers gonna be better than you think. You keep talking like niners are just gonna work them, I don’t see it.

I liked the idea of colts week 1 but not so much w the stuff going on with Taylor. I wouidnt be to tough on Richardson tonight, I didn’t watch but I thought it prob be tough for him even against backups cause Philly knows the system colts running very well.
Click to expand...

I’m just a 9er homer who trusts their week 1 prep. Steelers def have value.
 
Inspekdah said:
I’m just a 9er homer who trusts their week 1 prep. Steelers def have value.
Click to expand...
ive looked into this and 49ers kinda have sucked to start seasons........1 cover in 6 years in 2019 for game 1......feel like midseason they start picking up their form

really hard not to like the steelers game 1 maybe even at 2.5
 
EL CAPO said:
ive looked into this and 49ers kinda have sucked to start seasons........1 cover in 6 years in 2019 for game 1......feel like midseason they start picking up their form

really hard not to like the steelers game 1 maybe even at 2.5
Click to expand...

The ATS L6 don't look good - but they were controlling @ Chicago before the monsoon. They were up 20+ against Detroit before a backdoor cover prayer by the Lions and the year before that they beat the Bucs pretty good.

Agree they hit their stride mid season and go on huge runs.
 
Last edited:
EL CAPO said:
ive looked into this and 49ers kinda have sucked to start seasons........1 cover in 6 years in 2019 for game 1......feel like midseason they start picking up their form

really hard not to like the steelers game 1 maybe even at 2.5
Click to expand...

I know it dangerous to take much away from preseason but Steelers look good. Seems like Pickett comes out and goes 4-4 and drives them right down the field every week. Pickens looks like a absolute freak and it clear he must do that shit in practice cause pickett doesn’t hesitate to throw it up to him in 1 on 1 coverage, his catch radius is off the chain!! Man the afc is so loaded!! The afc south the only garbage division, the other 3 divisions all have at least 3 teams who could make playoffs!! Don’t think I ever recall a time there were so many good teams in one conference?

I love Steelers as home dogs week 1. Nothing against niners, I think they prob the best team in nfc, I just don’t think I’d lay points against Steelers at home with anyone week 1 as they look ready to rock and roll.
 
Coming from a Raiders fan.....I think Carr is in line for a huge season. He will be engaged and looking to prove himself after the debacle last year. He is a fantastic locker room guy and I think the Saints players will eat it up. They win that division for sure in my opinion.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Coming from a Raiders fan.....I think Carr is in line for a huge season. He will be engaged and looking to prove himself after the debacle last year. He is a fantastic locker room guy and I think the Saints players will eat it up. They win that division for sure in my opinion.
Click to expand...

There's a good amount of Carr non believers and I don't get it he willed a Mediocre roster to 5 yards from beating the bengals in the playoffs.....qbs I'd take over Carr? Burrow mahomes Allen herbert.....and that's it. Rodgers when healthy too
 
twinkie13 said:
I can tell y’all Carr is fitting in really nicely here. All the way around. Very Brees feel super early on.
Click to expand...

I think he was a great pickup for them. In the NFC he looks like one the better qbs, easy to get lost in the shuffle in the loaded AFC. Plus ya’ll got some great weapons! I put saints right behind niners and eagles as one the best teams in the nfc!
 
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