Week of October 18th-20th Plays and Analysis Thread

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Lets look back at last week. I did lose some units on a winning record but that happens at times with my style of betting. Was quite dissapointed last night but am in a better frame of mind tonight after going through the books and seeing the damage. I guess I can take heart in the fact that I capped some games well. Quite proud of my Iowa, Minnesota, UAB, Air Force and Missouri wins. I had the right side in BC-ND as ND had just 18-49 passing and no rushing yards but games like that happen. Also my fault for not getting the best of the number. As far as LSU goes, they ran like I thought they would. The difference is Flynn has regressed in every game this year regardless of the injury. Something to keep in mind. The UL-Cincy over looked great for a quarter. Almost 900 yards of offense but only 52 points. Hmmm.

Looking around the country at other games. Michigan State and Michigan were both extremely dominate. Take away the last 4 minutes of UM-Purdue and Indiana-Purdue didn't combine for 400 yards. I was leaning MSU all week after line shift but couldn't do it. A busy week prevented me from being able to read my MSU sources and I could have picked up on the fact that they had a great week of practice and were rededicating themselves. Down in Ace-Duece, Michigan too advantage of turnovers and capaitalized. Once again, as Hunt said, its spread offenses with mobile QB's that hurt Michigan. Slowly but surely the UM secondary is becoming respectable. Calofornia losing is no big shock. I really liked Oregon St early in week. It was my first lean but I ended up never playing it. California isn't a top team and I am glad they lost so I can stop seeing them getting ranked 2 and 3. Unreal. Is Sam Kellar shaving points again? Seriously. I could have better QB stats against Okie Lite than that. Sanchez started nice for USC but looked brutal after.

Heres my advice for the week. I think just keeping this in mind each week for "this" season and even in NFL will help in anyones capping.

"Do not take total stock into the week before"

What I mean by that is we are seeing some crazy stuff. One week, a team looks incredible and then comes a dud the next week and vice-versa. Some weeks teams look like they are tanking the season then the next week they cannot be stopped. Lot of parity and up and down action this year. Been a kooky year to say the least.

Line Movement:

South Florida PK to 3
Louisville PK to 3.5
Miami-o 7.5 to 6
Wisky 21.5 to 23.5
Ball St +1.5 to -1.5
Kansas 2.5 to 4.5
Missouri 6 to 3.5
Arizona 13-10
Fresno 10 to 12.5
Florida 4.5-7
LSU 14 to 10.5
Troy 21.5 to 17.5



Local Articles


ANN ARBOR -- Maybe a hobbled Mike Hart is the one Michigan nightmare that won't happen this season. After he went down with an ankle injury Saturday, Illinois lost, leaving only two undefeated teams in Big Ten play. And Hart ultimately returned to the sideline in street clothes, with more bounce in his step than when he departed.

"He's walking," quarterback Chad Henne said, with palpable relief. "He looked fine. He was down on the sideline, smiling, so hopefully, he'll be back next week."
The synopsis of Hart's selflessness without the football, his brilliance with it, and Michigan's fates if he can't carry it, all came into clear focus in the course of three plays.
On the first play, Hart filled a gap on third-and-6, flipped a safety onto his head and shoulders with a textbook blitz pick-up, and enabled Henne to complete a first-down pass cleanly.
On the second play, he cut a nifty 8-yard gain. The classic Hart.
On the third play, he crashed into the line, got rolled up from behind, tried to limp off the field, but stopped short of the sideline and collapsed onto hands and knees, flipping his helmet in the direction of the bench, surrounded by stunned teammates and coaches.
And with that, everything except a 48-21 rout of Purdue, which was too far gone to reverse, got put on hold.
The Big Ten pursuit.
The Heisman Trophy.
The season.
Hart ultimately left the field under his own power at halftime, the last player up the tunnel, aggravatedly describing the play on which he was injured to head coach Lloyd Carr, not to return to the game. The Michigan publicity machine never officially discloses injuries, but Hart clearly suffered a right ankle injury of dubious severity, after 102 rushing yards in less than a half.
Illinois is next, at night, on the road, in a game that doesn't loom over Michigan nearly as much as Hart's availability.
Injuries generally are a loser's lament. But this is the one injury, the one lost player, Michigan may not be able to overcome if Hart misses any extended time.
Hart's Heisman candidacy is just coming into bloom. His early touchdown run, when he rolled over a lineman and deftly propped himself with his right hand to remain afoot, was created for Heisman oohs and aahs. Missing even one game could cost him any chance at the award.
The voters see only his runs, and the extent to which Michigan's skilled offensive players rely on his yardage. Those who watch regularly are better attuned to his extraordinary leadership skills, including the pass-protection acumen which makes him an invaluable every-down back.
The play on which Hart was injured seemed innocuous enough. He charged into a jammed line and was dropped for no gain by one defender in front of him, and another behind. But the defensive tackle on the back side, Alex Magee, rolled over Hart's right leg.
Hart immediately got up gimpy.
His second-half absence was rendered academic by the Henne-to-Mario Manningham passing combination, a defense that finally is making plays, and a 24-7 lead before the injury. And the Wolverines are accustomed to overcoming offensive losses, most notably Henne for two games, but also the career-threatening injury which did not allow wide receiver Antonio Bass to play at all this year, and the loss of tight end Mike Massey.
"Mike's a warrior," said safety Jamar Adams. "He'll be in the training room every day, sun-up to sundown. Knowing Mike, he's going to find a way to be out there, dotting the 'I.' "
Hart's availability became a even bigger issue, if possible, when second-team running back Brandon Minor was carted to the locker room with his own unspecified injury late in the third quarter.
"The problem with him going out of the game," said Purdue coach Joe Tiller, "is that they might find another one waiting to get a chance."
Enter Carlos Brown. The sophomore from Franklin, Ga., used the moment as a personal audition, rushing for two fourth-quarter touchdowns, including a nice 29-yard run that he bounced outside.
"It was a big plus for us," Henne said, "because if Mike does go down, somebody has to step up."
That is, if somebody can.

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They're not a finished product yet.
Ron English wanted to make that clear, even after the University of Michigan defense shut down just about everything Purdue tried Saturday in a 48-21 victory that wasn't even that close, since the Boilermakers scored two touchdowns against third stringers.
"We're starting to understand," English said. "When you get smacked around and embarrassed, you start to listen to your coaches a little differently. You figure they might know what they're talking about. Some of the guys did not listen with the kind of intent they needed to.
"We've got guys really listening and buying in right now, and I think we're going to continue to improve."
Saturday, buying in meant holding Purdue's spread offense to one touchdown and 145 total yards and an average gain of 2.6 yards per play through the first three quarters. The only score came when Purdue took over on the Michigan 5-yard line after quarterback Chad Henne was stripped of the ball.
Buying in meant a third straight game of multiple turnovers, this time interceptions by defensive backs Jamar Adams and Brandon Harrison and a fumble forced by Tim Jamison and recovered by cornerback Donovan Warren.
And two more sacks, one apiece for lineman Terrance Taylor and linebacker Shawn Crable, seven more tackles behind the line of scrimmage, and multiple quarterback hurries for defensive end Brandon Graham.
The secondary, expected to face a tough test against quarterback Curtis Painter, combined with the steady pass rush to hold the Big Ten's top passer to 17 completions in 28 attempts for a season-low 113 yards.
"When you get the pressure that we got, and force someone to throw the ball quickly, that helps you a lot back there," senior cornerback Morgan Trent said. "You've got to love that in the secondary."
What has changed between the 0-2 start, during which Michigan allowed 73 points, and now?
Confidence is obviously part of it.
"We've got that little dog in us," Warren said. "We've got a little bit of confidence."
And a lot of little things to get better at, according to English.
The defensive coordinator used Purdue's first touchdown as an example. The Boilermakers called a design quarterback run and Crable got burned.
"That's what I'm talking about," English said. "He should have had that quarterback. He didn't take him. Next week, we'll see a bunch of that. Illinois will jump in and out of plays, and that's when our discipline will have to show up.
"You know, we've been embarrassed, and when you get embarrassed, I don't think you want to be embarrassed again. So I don't think it will be hard to motivate these guys, plus when they watch tape of Illinois, they're going to see a really good football team."

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EAST LANSING -- Michigan State's offensive line has become a living monument to interchangeable parts.

Mike Gyetvai, who played left tackle during his first three seasons, started against Notre Dame and Wisconsin at right guard in place of the injured Roland Martin, and at left guard against Northwestern in place of the injured Kenny Shane.
An injury kept projected starting center John Masters out of the lineup early in the season, was not able to unseat redshirt freshman Joel Nitchman in the first six games.
Masters has filled in at both guard and center, however, and started in place of the ailing Nitchman (knee), who was not in uniform, in Saturday night's game against Indiana.
Former walk-on Mike Bacon started one game at left guard and backed up Masters against the Hoosiers.
Right tackle Jesse Miller and left tackle Pete Clifford are the only two linemen who haven't played musical chairs so far this season.
"We just have the mind-set that no matter who comes in, we're going to continue to play like we play," Clifford said.
"We're going to play yard, be physical and just grind it out. It doesn't matter who's in there because knows their role."
Clifford said each lineman has to pass a test, administered by line coach Dan Roushar, on the assignments of all five positions.
"The O-line is the O-line, so regardless of what position you're playing it's the same mentality and same techniques," he said. "When everyone knows what each other is doing and we're all coached like that -- even the tight ends are in with us -- anyone can play any position.
"It doesn't matter who comes in as long as they step up to the plate, and I think a lot of guys have done that this year."

*&#@!
There have been complaints about some of the off-color verbiage spouted by the MSU student cheering section, which has grown to record numbers.
Clifford, who isn't majoring in political science -- he's got one degree in law and society and going for a second in criminal justice -- was nevertheless diplomatic in his assessment of his classmates' salty language.
"I haven't really thought about it that much but have a read about it a little bit in the State News," he said of an article in the MSU student newspaper. "They're college students and that's what happens.
"It's not a big deal. You go anywhere in the country and it's like that.
"I think they're just being college kids. They should probably clean it up, but as long as they're loud and they're cheering, we don't have a big problem with it."

Ringers goes long
Javon Ringer's first carry against the Hoosiers went for 28 yards.
It was only the fifth run of 20 or more yards given up by Indiana this season.

Odds & ends
Freshman punter Aaron Bates set up MSU's first touchdown with his first career carry. He lined up as a the holder on an apparent 35-yard field-goal attempt, but ran 14 yards for a first down at the Hoosier 4-yard line.
******
Running back Jehuu Caulcrick gave MSU a 7-0 lead on his 29th career touchdown, which tied him with T.J. Duckett and Lynn Chandnois in fourth place on the MSU's all-time rushing touchdown list.
******
What was believed to be a six-point buck jumped a short fence outside of Spartan Stadium, went down the tunnel and ran for daylight on the playing field at around 3 p.m. The deer eventually left the stadium.

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EAST LANSING -- The critics of Spartan Nation were quick to complain about the lack of a consistent Michigan State running game during last week's 48-41 overtime loss to underdog Northwestern at Spartan Stadium.

They were vocal in their displeasure over running back Javon Ringer carrying the football just a dozen times despite the fact that he had 185 yards and three touchdowns on those 12 touches. And there were plenty of complaints about about coach Mark Dantonio deciding to rely on four pass attempts in overtime for four harmless incompletions, with Ringer used as simply a blocking decoy.
Dantonio apparently heard the disapproval.
So, Saturday night, Dantonio came with with a game plan that completely stalled the speed and spread offense deployed by upstart Indiana. The result was a 52-27 Michigan State win.
First, Dantonio and his staff became gamblin' men in the opening quarter, opting for a fake field goal on a fourth-and-3 call at the Indiana 18-yard line, and going for it on a fourth-and-2 situation at the Hoosiers 27.
Both risks paid, leading to touchdowns by Jehuu Caulcrick and Ringer.
Dantonio continued to feed Ringer the football -- and Caulcrick had plenty of touches as well.
All told, Michigan State had 368 rushing yards on 67 attempts. Ringer carried 29 times for 203 yards and two scores.
Caulcrick chipped in 94 yards and three touchdowns on his 23 carries.
It was vintage Big Ten football, the kind of game Spartans fans howled for a week ago. Except, instead of 3 yards and a cloud of dust, for MSU, it was 5.5. yards a carry.
"I can't control what's said," Dantonio said. "I can tell you these are initial stages in our program, and I like the way we came back from the Northwestern loss and played hard.
"When the chips are down, that's when your coaches and your leaders better be at their best."
What did Dantonio accomplish Saturday? One, he kept elusive Indiana quarterback Kellen Lewis and his quick offensive teammates off the field as the Spartans dominated the game's time of possession by a mind-boggling 41:05-18:55 margin.
Two, it got the majority of State's detractors off the first-year coach's back for a week -- and until his forces head to Columbus, Ohio, for Saturday's engagement with Ohio State.
Dantonio knew that living dangerously in the first quarter and riding the running attack would wear down the Hoosiers defense while Lewis and company could only watch from the sidelines.
After the first quarter, Michigan State held a 12:30-2:30 advantage in time of possession and led 17-10. At halftime, the margin grew to 21:38-8:22 while the lead ballooned to 24-13.
Some pinpoint passing that included Brian Hoyer's 20-for-23 effort for 190 yards and a 34-yard scoring toss to Devin Thomas, Caulcrick's 2-yard touchdown run and defensive end Ervin Baldwin's 12-yard fumble return to the end zone made it a 45-13 score with 4:59 remaining in the third quarter.
Hoyer and Thomas proved to be an impressive passing combination Saturday night. The defense stepped up to prove it can contain a spread offense a week after being dissected by Northwestern's spread.
But it was Dantonio taking chances early and relying on his ground game from start to finish that got Michigan State this much-needed first win in the Big Ten.
A victory at Ohio State appears out of the question, no matter what happened Saturday night. But with the MSU victory, wins at Iowa and Purdue and home to Penn State are possible -- if the running game and the defense stay status quo, and the coaches continue to roll the dice every now and then.
As for that Nov. 3 showdown with Michigan, it, too, will come down to which MSU running game and defense appears, and what kind of emotional state the Spartans are in.
 
Just to make a few quick notes from those articles....

Michigan State stuck to the ground game and proved once again they can be a top rushing team in this country. Against bad defenses such as Wisky and Indiana they have been incredible. That allows Hoyer to manage a game, as his 20-23 performance woudl attest.

Michigan needs a 100 percent healthy Mike Hart to win at Illinois. I will have many more thoughts on that game in a bit but he must be in. This is a game I have had my eye on for many months. The situation is right and its going to be a battle in Champagne.
 
Colorado State at UNLV

I won't lie to you. This Ram team is shady. I think there is some funky stuff going on with them and will capitalize again this week. The good part is, even if my hunch is wrong they are just in a bad position right now. I think Sonny has lost the team and I would doubt if the kids have much motivation right now. The game at Houston I think was the back-breaker. I will be suprised if they win a game at this point. I could be wrong. UNLV should win this by 7-10 at least

UNLV -3 -110 3 units
 
what u like between usf and rutgers?

how can the #2 team in the land keep having such short lines?
 
GL this week BAR...hope you can bounce back.

I think you are on the right side on this UNLV game...but UNLV only has a couple wins and lost the last 3. But Colorado St is playing with no emotion and seem like they don't care.
 
what u like between usf and rutgers?

how can the #2 team in the land keep having such short lines?


I started watching this USF team a lot last year about the time people began to discover Matt Grothe. He grew on me quick. One of the weeknight games he gave us a great backdoor cover and slowly but surely USF started building as a team. They got a lot of pub all off-season and it was deserved. Then, all the talk was maybe we were over-hyphing them a bit. That was the trend as the season approached. They have won big road games in tough places(WVU-Auburn) and taken care of business against the average teams. Well-coached, as there was no look ahead last week in their thrashing of UCF. Rutgers is no slouch either though. This is still a very good team. The way Cincy is/was playing this year that loss is forgivable on the road. Raymell Rice is still one of the greats and Tell has improved a lot this year. I think this may be one of the better games of the season as far as a spotlight game goes. Line went from PK to -3. No suprise there as the #2 team in nation generally would be favored in any contest. I think this game could go either way IMHO.
 
GL this week BAR...hope you can bounce back.

I think you are on the right side on this UNLV game...but UNLV only has a couple wins and lost the last 3. But Colorado St is playing with no emotion and seem like they don't care.

That is exactly it too Gems. Colly really doesn't care right now and with such a short line at home I think its a great spot.
 
I have been saying "now's the time" for this Ram team for three weeks. I'm done with that. Rebels to the bank.

GL this week BAR - looking forward to the rest of the plays. Great info thus far.
 
Great stuff my man. No doubt Keller is shaving.

The defensive coordinator used Purdue's first touchdown as an example. The Boilermakers called a design quarterback run and Crable got burned.
"That's what I'm talking about," English said. "He should have had that quarterback. He didn't take him.


no shit? what a shock Ron!
 
I have been saying "now's the time" for this Ram team for three weeks. I'm done with that. Rebels to the bank.

GL this week BAR - looking forward to the rest of the plays. Great info thus far.

Thank you sir. Diving into the rest of this card right now. Almost caught up on other stuff.
 
Great stuff my man. No doubt Keller is shaving.

The defensive coordinator used Purdue's first touchdown as an example. The Boilermakers called a design quarterback run and Crable got burned.
"That's what I'm talking about," English said. "He should have had that quarterback. He didn't take him.

no shit? what a shock Ron!

LOL-Funny stuff
 
I started watching this USF team a lot last year about the time people began to discover Matt Grothe. He grew on me quick. One of the weeknight games he gave us a great backdoor cover and slowly but surely USF started building as a team. They got a lot of pub all off-season and it was deserved. Then, all the talk was maybe we were over-hyphing them a bit. That was the trend as the season approached. They have won big road games in tough places(WVU-Auburn) and taken care of business against the average teams. Well-coached, as there was no look ahead last week in their thrashing of UCF. Rutgers is no slouch either though. This is still a very good team. The way Cincy is/was playing this year that loss is forgivable on the road. Raymell Rice is still one of the greats and Tell has improved a lot this year. I think this may be one of the better games of the season as far as a spotlight game goes. Line went from PK to -3. No suprise there as the #2 team in nation generally would be favored in any contest. I think this game could go either way IMHO.
This was the game against RU last year when they were down 8 and he drove them down and they got a TD with like 30 seconds left but missed the 2Pt conversion so it didnt go to OT and they covered...Thats when I became a Matt Grothe Fan:smiley_acbe:
 
This was the game against RU last year when they were down 8 and he drove them down and they got a TD with like 30 seconds left but missed the 2Pt conversion so it didnt go to OT and they covered...Thats when I became a Matt Grothe Fan:smiley_acbe:
LOL-I thought it was that game. Tha drive was great. He showed hsi potential there and that drive kind of got his career in motion. Huge confidence builder.
 
BAR I think you have a good feel for the RUT game, but our loss to Cincy this year was at home, and Teel threw 3 picks I believe in that one.


Here's my feeling on RUT-SOFLO. Schiano wasn't the coach of the year last year for no reason. Rutgers generally is good at protecting the ball, and Teel got off to a torrid start before throwing 6 INT's vs. Cincy and MD, the games they lost. I truly feel that whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game in this one. Now the question that begs to be asked is did Teel have a relapse in those two games and has he put them behind him, or does he struggle mentally in come-from-behind situations or in big games? We are going to find out Thurs. night. I think the line is right.
 
BAR I think you have a good feel for the RUT game, but our loss to Cincy this year was at home, and Teel threw 3 picks I believe in that one.


Here's my feeling on RUT-SOFLO. Schiano wasn't the coach of the year last year for no reason. Rutgers generally is good at protecting the ball, and Teel got off to a torrid start before throwing 6 INT's vs. Cincy and MD, the games they lost. I truly feel that whoever wins the turnover battle wins the game in this one. Now the question that begs to be asked is did Teel have a relapse in those two games and has he put them behind him, or does he struggle mentally in come-from-behind situations or in big games? We are going to find out Thurs. night. I think the line is right.
Good stuff man. I still played RU but understand what you are saying.
 
Rutgers +3 -110
Northwestern -8.5 -110 2 units
Uconn +3.5 -115 2 units
Illinois +3 -110 2 units
 
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Bah hate to be against ya on 2 plays BAR as I'm on South Florida at +1 and Louisville -2.5. But I guess we both could win with a South Florida 2 point win.. and a Louisville 3 point win. Let's hope for that then...
 
I'm leaning Illinois, as well. It's simple. Appy St. & Oregon. UM had a lot of trouble with that type of spread offense featuring a very good run game with an athletic QB (which is much different than Purdue's pass-style offense). Three elements that concern me. (1) Those two losses were early, and UM has played well since. (2) Appy St. and Oregon had a good passing attack, but I don't trust Juice throwing the ball, yet. (3) I also think Michigan can move the ball through the air on the Illini. Tough call, but I can see it...GLTY
 
Good points counselor, from what I have read this week, Illinois might go with 2 qb's off and on throughout the game. Mcgee on passing downs and Juice for the run. I hate two qb systems but I think this would be effective and throw Um off a little bit.
 
"Do not take total stock into the week before"

This is so true. I am not sure about others on this board, but before Kentucky lost to South Carolina, I was ready to bet them against LSU. After watching them lose, I jumped off. Doh!
 
Good points counselor, from what I have read this week, Illinois might go with 2 qb's off and on throughout the game. Mcgee on passing downs and Juice for the run. I hate two qb systems but I think this would be effective and throw Um off a little bit.

If you confirm that, let me know, please. Thanks...
 
What I mean by that is we are seeing some crazy stuff. One week, a team looks incredible and then comes a dud the next week and vice-versa. Some weeks teams look like they are tanking the season then the next week they cannot be stopped. Lot of parity and up and down action this year. Been a kooky year to say the least.

Isn't that the truth bruthah...GL this week man


 
always remember where ya came from and where you strive to be.

Whats that meean?

Got it I think

Bulls target always been Detroit..this time is almost 2 decades later...

Love the rivalry being back...the two working class cities fighting it out..eventually...not this year ;) you guys will get us:tiphat:
 
As a Michigan fan I've been dreading this game, but I can't help but to feel that Henne and Hart won't allow Michigan to lose this one.

What is the latest on Hart?
 
All common sense says S. Fla in that game. However, there has always been something about the home dogs on Thursday nights. Rutgers has slipped and the Bulls have played out of their minds, but with so many crazy games this year, you can't ignore the easy possibility of RU winning. Line looks to be at 2.5 now. If it goes back to 3 I'll go RU or RU moneyline. GL with your week BAR.
 
not going to lie bar, but i am not really a fan of your card. maybe thats a good thing though. haha
 
Whats that meean?

Got it I think

Bulls target always been Detroit..this time is almost 2 decades later...

Love the rivalry being back...the two working class cities fighting it out..eventually...not this year ;) you guys will get us:tiphat:

God I hate that fucking saying...They say that about any Cleveland team and whoever they play. When Detroit plays New York, you can say "the two crime infested, homeless cities fighting it out"....sarcasm....:36_11_6:


And oh yeah, Good luck this week:cheers:
 
hey SEMCUM DON....

007AX1-16273884.jpg
 
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