Week of 10/28 Plays


Pretty much a regular
I'm going to try to be a more dedicated poster on this site. It is by far the best site that I've run across and I'll try to make it better (with my uneducated insite) by getting more involved. I still post at hornfans (and will continue to post there), but maybe a change of scenery will get my units going as I've been hovering between 10 and 20 units all year. Here is what I got:

YTD: 49-44-4 (+10.6 units)

Gave a little back last week. The really big swing was when Stoops decided to run up the score against Colorado. Instead of a push, it was a 5.5 unit loss. That one hurt.

I know there has been a trend to take the home dog during the week. It has been very profitable. The problem with this trend is that it works great to fade average to above average teams. Clemson is not some average MAC, MWC or Conference USA team. I don't think that should be the sole reason to take Virginia Tech tonight as there are too many other factors that have to be looked at.

First of all, Virginia Tech has struggled against teams that have equal of better talent this year...that is Boston College, Georgia Tech and Cinci to some extent. This problem has been shown when they have tried to run the ball, which has always been a staple of the Hokies offense. So, they pass the ball and have been successful doing so against teams like Northeastern, Duke and even Georgia Tech. This is how they score points! However, Clemson has a good secondary that gives up around 150 yards per game. The highlight of the defense came last weekend when they shut out Georgia Tech WR Calvin Johnson for the first time in his career. That is no small feat. I really don't see Virginia Tech getting more than 14 points if Clemson doesn't give them a short field.

The Virginia Tech defense is still a good defense. They will stop Clemson at times tonight. But, Clemson has one of the best rushing offenses in the nation at over 250 yards per game. They also rush at over a 6 yards per carry. James Davis (who should play) and CJ Spiller will reach 200 yards combined. This should allow Will Proctor to do just enough to get a comfortable victory.

In conclusion...I think the 2 defenses are very similar. The big difference between these 2 teams are on offense where Clemson has the advantage. Is Lane Stadium that much of a home field advantage for the Hokies? In years past, I would be all over Virginia Tech. But, not this year as I'm taking the better team to win by almost 2 touchdowns. Clemson wins this one 27-14.

Clemson -4 - 4 units
Nice write-up! Although I rarely ever posted there, I always enjoyed your picks on Hornfans, Mule.
Grind and BAR...thanks for the kind words. Let's kick some bookie ass this weekend.

RaiderJM...You need to show your face around here and there more. The more input and analysis you get on games, the better you can cap them, IMO. Good luck this weekend!
GL Muletime - I think VT will need to have an incredible game on defense and probably need either a defensive or special teams score in this one to have a shot. I just don't see Glennon getting it done through the air and if I'm Clemson I make him beat me.
Muletime said:
RaiderJM...You need to show your face around here and there more. The more input and analysis you get on games, the better you can cap them, IMO. Good luck this weekend!

Thanks, Mule! I've started posting picks here and have had a good year, but last week was rough. Anyway I tend play based on numbers while using any info I can pick up to help. So, I tend to post picks late (fri night or sat morning) and rarely have write-ups - it's just the games I like based on the numbers and all the info from the local cappers.
I guess that will teach me to go against this board and against all those trends. I could not believe my eyes last night when I saw Virginia Tech dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage last night. They were playing light's out and get my props. I guess the whole ACC sucks this year and won't have a very good team that will go to the BCS bowls. I thought Clemson would be that team, but they have 2 loses now.

On to tonight...

UTEP/Tulsa under 54' - 4 units
UTEP/Tulsa 1H under 27 - 2 units (Wind early in game)

Tulsa is a team flying under the radar so far this season. After faltering to BYU in the season opener, they have won their last 5 games in a row and each of those games have gone under. This team can play defense as shown by them only giving up close to 270 yards per game. They are especially tough against the pass and haven't given up more than 200 yards in the air since the BYU game. UTEP only moves the ball through the air. Combine the fact that it will be windy early in the game (check out weather.com hourly forcast) with Tulsa's defensive numbers, I don't think UTEP will score more than 17 or so.

Tulsa is very consistant and balanced on offense. Since they are playing a very average defense, I think their offensive output would be very similar in the 30 range or so.

Given the fact that the wind will wreck havoc in both teams passing the ball, I see a running game that will favor the Hurricane. As long as their are not too many turnovers, this one should stay safely under the number...Tulsa wins 31-14
It didn't go exactly as planned, but a winner is a winner. I'll take them anyway they want to hand them out.

Here is the rest of the card. Sorry that I didn't write these up.

ND -13 - 1 unit
Maryland +4 - 2 units
BYU -9 - 4 units
Penn St/Purdue under 48' - 1 unit
S Carolina +3' - 2 units
Florida -13' - 1 unit
San Jose St -10 - 4 units
Missouri -1' - 3 units
TCU -6 - 3 units

A friend of ours is in a body building contest tomorrow, so I'll be out of pocket most of the day. Good luck everyone and let's kick the man's ass this weekend!!!!

6-3 and +8.4 units for the day.

I'll take it to the bank. Thanks to some on the board for that Maryland pick. I was not playing it until several on here pointed it out to me.

YTD: 57-48-4 (+20.8 units)

I've finally blasted out of the +20 barrier. If it stays here, it will be a very productive year. But, why be a little greedy!!!!