Week 9...

horses

horses

Brady licks Marino's knob
Will do a recap of last week later, but went 5-1 on sides and 0-2 on totals for basically a 5-2 week (totals 1/2 unit).

Gotta go on a trip to SF this week for work, tue thru thurs, but will post as I can...probably from the hotel in a drunken stupor.

For now:

Florida -24 over Kentucky

I realize Cocktail Party is on deck, but this is a nice spot for the Gators to warm up against an injury depleted team coming off a fortunate win (down 20-7 with 5 minutes to go vs Arkansas, and Arkansas had the ball and fumbled...blah, blah, blah).

Quick word on tomorrow's game; can't tell if DiMichele is going to play but he still seems banged up; I'm thinking they hold him out another week and if that's the case, I would definitely lean Ohio + 4 or more.

Good luck to everyone this week.
 
have fun in SF. Tell all the ex-sportscappers ( the homeless guys you will see everywhere ) that i said hi,

gl with the gators.
 
GL this week Horses. Tend to think you're right that Temple will hold DiMichelle out another week. Line dropped down to 3 tonight across the board.
 
Love it and just hate I missed -24 probably going to have to pay nicely to get back there ...we think alot like so far in 2008 .
 
we think alot like so far in 2008 .

No wonder I'm having a good year so far. Good luck this week SN.

LOL, Thanks Kyle.

TimH, yeah, I see that; missed the boat today on 4 so I am almost for sure passing this game. Can't see laying points with Temple having Stewart under center. G/L.
 
I want to play this line. . but I don't think I have the balls to lay so many points against Kentucky. How strongly do you feel about his, bro?
 
Just locked in on the same side, but at -120 juice, love the gators in this spot as well horses.
A chance for a decisive win to carry some momentum into the cocktail party game, like you said

This is a kentucky team that has struggled to move the football all year and even greater on the road. Rushing for only 35 yards against bama and 63 against the ville.
If you take out the WKY, MTSU, and NORst numbers to pad their offensive stats, it really shows how anemic this offense has been all year long. That being said, I dont think they break 10 points here in the swamp, and UF gets the cover

Glad we agree again, nevada came through nicely wash week and cashed.... was getting worried in 4Q when they refused to kick FG's and turned it over on downs twice in a row. Then the goal-line fumble but we were lucky to get it back and punch it in for the cover. Although you had 19 so i dont even think you were really sweatin it. Anyways, GL bro lets cash em
 
Azzie, yeah, i know some folks don't like laying big points (more than 21) and that's cool; my horse racing buddies rationalize betting large favorites i give them to betting on closers at the track...you're probably going to be behind most of the time but should be gaining the whole way; both the south florida and nevada games were perfect examples of that last week. As far as how confident am I? I'm not very good at answering that esp since i flat bet and my lame answer would have to be i like it enough to bet my normal amount on it.

Captwo, great point on pinpointing their road struggles; really think their offense gets off the field quickly and an injury depleted defense just wears out and florida wins in a romp. bol this wknd.
 
Ok...back from the trip; only got online once and that was for about 15 minutes while I was up there. Gotta say...San Francisco is one fun city with tons to do but living there would be damn expensive. Think I went thru my per diem in the first three hours I was there.

Ok...recap of week 8, it'll be quick since we so far into the week. After a slow start to the year and losing in both weeks 1 and 2, I have now had 6 straight winning weekends in college football. Couple this with an increased unit size this year and I am one happy camper with the results thus far. Alas, a long way to go as there are actually 15 wknds of college ball this year, including championship weeks.

These will be quick:

Rice -3 over Southern Miss, WIN: Turned out more or less how I expected; lots of points, yards and FD's with Rice being +1 in TO's. Owls had a big lead and Southern Miss made the final respectable with a couple late scores.

Ohio St -3 over Michigan St, WIN: This was a perfect bet...probably my best bet of the year.

Pitt -3 over Navy, WIN: Pitt is an undervalued team; Navy is an overvalued team. Doen deal.

USF -24 over Syracuse, WIN: This bet wasn't going well most of the game, and then, as often happens in these mismatches, about 15 minutes, from the middle of the 3rd to the middle of the 4th, determined this outcome. Syracuse had something like 15 yards in the 2nd half.

Nevada -19 over Utah St, WIN: pretty routine

Cal -2 over Arizona, LOSS: This game cost me my 6 team parlay; up ten at the half, the Bears blew it in the 2nd half for the second time in a row in Tucson. Not one to complain to much, but some calls did go against Berkeley in this one...nevertheless, kudos to U of A for actually getting a meaningful win.

Totals: (1/2 units)

Miami (Fl)/Duke under 44', LOSS: This game went off at 41 so the house cleaned up here.

FIU/Troy under 45, LOSS: I knew this bet was done after 7 minutes, ugh!

You won't see many totals on my card this week, lol.

As mentioned above, only bet so far is Florida over Kentucky. Looks like UK is down five guys on defense, their best RB and WR...and this basically looks like a mail-in game for them as they can still get to a bowl by getting healthier and taking care of easier opponents ahead of them. One fear about betting the Gators is that Meyer is a horrible DD SEC favorite.

Back with the rest of the card tomorrow or Sat AM.
 
Troy, funny, that's the score I had in mind and why I wanted to get this at 24 (or less).

Thx DMOney, think it took a while for people to truly realize the extent of the UK injury situation. Just got my locals lines...he's got UF -27. Wow.
 
Thanks Pags...good luck to you this weekend.

Guess I'll post these as I add them:

South Florida -3 (-120) over Louisville

This is, BY FAR, the best team that Louisville has played this year; the Bulls defense is finally healthy and if they contain the 'Villes run game, their front 7 should harass the statue named Cantwell all day long. On the other side, I refuse to buy into the Louisville defense until they play an offense with a pulse. The best offense they played is Memphis if you can believe that and they gave up 481 yards and won because of Tiger TO's. I've been defending Groethe all year against a number of detractors on here and I personally think he's one of the best QB's in the country.

Bulls win by 2 TD's here.
 
horses said:
Thanks Pags...good luck to you this weekend.

Guess I'll post these as I add them:

South Florida -3 (-120) over Louisville

This is, BY FAR, the best team that Louisville has played this year; the Bulls defense is finally healthy and if they contain the 'Villes run game, their front 7 should harass the statue named Cantwell all day long. On the other side, I refuse to buy into the Louisville defense until they play an offense with a pulse. The best offense they played is Memphis if you can believe that and they gave up 481 yards and won because of Tiger TO's. I've been defending Groethe all year against a number of detractors on here and I personally think he's one of the best QB's in the country.

Bulls win by 2 TD's here.
Click to expand...

Wishing I was a little more patient on this line, as I've already grabbed USF -4. But, I think you're right...the Bulls should win by DD's.

GL buddy...lookin forward to the rest of your plays!

:cheers:
 
Wishing I was a little more patient on this line, as I've already grabbed USF -4. But, I think you're right...the Bulls should win by DD's.

GL buddy...lookin forward to the rest of your plays!

:cheers:


Hey Azzie; don't think it's a problem and I would play it at -4 as well. Very few games fall right on the number anyway...what, maybe 3 or 4 a week in college football? Last week for example, I was able to bet Pitt and Ohio St as road chalk both at -3. Navy got Dr. Bob'd and Pitt went off at -2; Ohio St went off at -4 as I recall. Worrying about getting a 1/2 point here or there is wasted energy IMO; energy should be spent getting on games where that 1/2 or 1 point don't matter...and in about 90 to 95 percent of the games, it doesn't.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
Kick some ass this weekend horses. What's the horses reference anyway? Shouldn't it be dolphins?
 
horses said:
Wishing I was a little more patient on this line, as I've already grabbed USF -4. But, I think you're right...the Bulls should win by DD's.

GL buddy...lookin forward to the rest of your plays!

:cheers:


Hey Azzie; don't think it's a problem and I would play it at -4 as well. Very few games fall right on the number anyway...what, maybe 3 or 4 a week in college football? Last week for example, I was able to bet Pitt and Ohio St as road chalk both at -3. Navy got Dr. Bob'd and Pitt went off at -2; Ohio St went off at -4 as I recall. Worrying about getting a 1/2 point here or there is wasted energy IMO; energy should be spent getting on games where that 1/2 or 1 point don't matter...and in about 90 to 95 percent of the games, it doesn't.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
Click to expand...

line is coming into play for me about once a week on average. sometimes for and sometimes against.

i might play a lot more games than you though. Basically though a 1/2 point should be viewed ( roughly ) as .05 units since they charge 0.10 units for them when you make your bet.


So for me this week , where i have virginia +11.5 and now after drbob it sits at +14.5 i have lost 3 points of value. I consider that a 0.30 unit error in line movement judgement that i made.

It is even easier to see the value of each half point when monitoring moneylines.

My two cents on that for what it's worth.
 
Thanks JPicks, hope you do well this wknd too, even though you're fading my Aztecs. :cool:

Knew Post 16 might draw a little fire from a savvy 'capper around here; reading it, I probably didn't explain myself too well. Naturally, getting the best line possible is always optimal, and in your case Kyle, 11' to 14 is rather dramatic.

I can only explain my mentality using a quick example, and that is the one game this year where better shopping or waiting may have got me the win or push: Georgia 26 Tennessee 14

I layed 12'; some people got 12 and others got 11'. I should pissed at myself right?! I am...but my mentality is such that I am much more upset about being on a game that ended so close to the line than I am about getting the worst of the line. Believe it or not, I feel much more in control about the piks i make than the lines i get; i mean, we have people in the dr bob forum every week trying to predict who he is going to be on...and to what end? Perfect example today...just look in this thread...couple folks jumped on usf early at -4 because they were sure dr bob would be on them...sure enough...dr bob puts up louisville and I, who was driving home from work when dr bob released his piks, came home to usf -3...without putting one iota of thought into possible line moves on that game. Kudos to the folks that can consistently predict AND take advantage of line moves; I think it's pretty random myself and my energy is best served trying to identify games where the outcome won't be near the number...and yes, I do only play 6 or 7 sides (or full amounts) a week.
 
Thread is good read, horses, and good luck this week-end.
And speaking of horses, I'll be betting a lot on them come friday and Saturday HE HE - Or maybe Haw Haw ?
 
Yeah, me too Bull; Breeder's Cup offers great value on some really good ponies.

JPicks, I never answered your question, but the fact is, horse racing is what got me into gambling initially. I migrated to sports betting because I liked it better, but at the time I was making my online monikers, I was into horse racing and used horses. Since that's how I was recognized in this subculture, I kept it at Blankies and when I moved over here. I rarely 'cap the horse racing form, as I rely on a couple buddies that are actually in the industry for plays, but I can still cap a horse racing form with a lot of thought...Breeder's Cup is one of the few times I get off the bench and make some bets.
 
Fuck you and your -3 (-120). Point taken.

Nice patience. Thank you.

We both cash anyway. Agree completely.
 
Cashed on Ventura and Together Forever today
Just a bit of a cushion for Saturday.
 
horses said:
Yeah, me too Bull; Breeder's Cup offers great value on some really good ponies.

JPicks, I never answered your question, but the fact is, horse racing is what got me into gambling initially. I migrated to sports betting because I liked it better, but at the time I was making my online monikers, I was into horse racing and used horses. Since that's how I was recognized in this subculture, I kept it at Blankies and when I moved over here. I rarely 'cap the horse racing form, as I rely on a couple buddies that are actually in the industry for plays, but I can still cap a horse racing form with a lot of thought...Breeder's Cup is one of the few times I get off the bench and make some bets.
Click to expand...

'an_horse'

Good stuff. I assumed as much, but figured it was worth asking. One of these days I'd like somebody in the industry to explain to me how to bet on the ponies. I'd don't have the first idea and it probably has to do with living in Utah since I was 19. Not alot of horse racing going on here. I have been to Del Mar though and the scenery is beautiful. :)
 
And where were you in SF? I spent my summers in San Mateo as a youth. Absolutely love that city in September/October.
 
JPicks, visiting a vendor for work up in the saucilito area just over the bridge north of the city; made excursions into the city in the evening which of course isn't far. Don't get up there a ton but you're right, it's great this time of year.

Bull, I made a medium sized wager on Ventura...it's my hometown for heaven's sake! My only hit of the day but I'm up...good luck on Saturday, I'm busy finishing by cfb card while watching boise roll over the spartans.
 
Azzie, no contract extension; AD Schemmel said he'll be here thru the '09 season though. He's signed thru the 2010 season. I don't know if Schemmel wants to get rid of him or not...the compelling issue here is it would cost 1.5M to buy him out right now and in case you didn't notice...this isn't Texas...we can't afford it.

Sammy, you are a riot!

Hunt, Fondy, BAR...thanks for the words and best of luck to the folks in B10 country. You guys have the game of the day, in spite of UGA and LSU. Really need Ohio St for my futures bet on them to win the B10.

Here's the rest of my card:

Oregon -3 over Arizona St
Mississippi St -10 over Middle Tennessee St
Notre Dame -10 over Washington
Purdue +2' over Minnesota

Good luck to everyone today.
 
horses said:
Azzie, no contract extension; AD Schemmel said he'll be here thru the '09 season though. He's signed thru the 2010 season. I don't know if Schemmel wants to get rid of him or not...the compelling issue here is it would cost 1.5M to buy him out right now and in case you didn't notice...this isn't Texas...we can't afford it.

Sammy, you are a riot!

Hunt, Fondy, BAR...thanks for the words and best of luck to the folks in B10 country. You guys have the game of the day, in spite of UGA and LSU. Really need Ohio St for my futures bet on them to win the B10.

Here's the rest of my card:

Oregon -3 over Arizona St
Mississippi St -10 over Middle Tennessee St
Notre Dame -10 over Washington
Purdue +2' over Minnesota

Good luck to everyone today.
Click to expand...

Phew...I was listening late, so, I think I just didn't process the info properly. Thanks for clearing that up for me...I nearly shit a brick.

Yeah, 1.5 MIL would definitely be an issue for SDSU.

GL today bro!

:cheers:
 
Phew...I was listening late, so, I think I just didn't process the info properly. Thanks for clearing that up for me...I nearly shit a brick.

Yeah, 1.5 MIL would definitely be an issue for SDSU.

GL today bro!

Thanks; gotta a feeling the Aztecs will play a decent game tonite; not sure what that means or if they even cover, but I think an inspired effort is forthcoming tonite.
 
horses said:
Phew...I was listening late, so, I think I just didn't process the info properly. Thanks for clearing that up for me...I nearly shit a brick.

Yeah, 1.5 MIL would definitely be an issue for SDSU.

GL today bro!

Thanks; gotta a feeling the Aztecs will play a decent game tonite; not sure what that means or if they even cover, but I think an inspired effort is forthcoming tonite.
Click to expand...

After a 70-7 loss, I sure hope so.

I still can't get over that score. It has to be the worst loss in school history.

:shake:
 
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