Week 9....


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6-2 posted sides
2-1 posted totals

Saturday Plays...

Buffalo +36 -105
There's been good discussion on this one already in other threads... I don't see BC getting to 40 and Buffalo is very capable of putting up a touchdown against BC's pass defense. With Buffalo being susceptible to the run, that clock should dwindle away at a pretty nice rate if BC looks to expose their weakness out the gate. Look for BC to move the chains all day on a Buffalo team allowing 227 p/g on the ground. Buffalo is airing it out more this year, and BC gives up 251 passing yards p/g, so a shutout would be unlikey imo. Also, when BC gets ahead three or four touches, it wouldn't make much sense not to pull the banged up Matt Ryan at some point during the second half... 35-9

Northern Illinois +17 -102
Tate may be declared out for this one (possible thumb surgery), so I hope it's not another Matt Ryan episode. If that's the case, there's quite a bit of value in NIU given that this Iowa team has taken a beating in the injury department this year. WR Dominique Douglas (sprained knee) came off injury and got quite a few touches @ Michigan. Tailback Albert Young received around 9 carries last week, so i highly doubt he's anywhere near 100 percent back from his injury. The Iowa coaching staff has taken a wait-and-see approach to these injuries in the past, so it's tough to get a good measure on where everyone stands. Other injuries for Iowa include DL Mitch King (hammy) and OL D. Richardson (ankle). Going against a strong trend as Iowa has covered their last 7 or 8 against MAC opponents.

Wake Forest -10 +103 (BEST BET).... now 8 @ Pinny
I know it's DD road chalk, but I don't see much respect for Wake here with this line. I figured it would be somewhere around two touches. Hell, Wake would be in the BCS hunt if it weren't for that collosal meltdown they suffered versus Clemson. They're a blocked fg away from being one helluva story, even more so than now. What would that line be if Clemson rolled in there? Wake should literally run away with this one...

New Mexico St./Nevada OVER 64 -105
NMSU has given up 49, 40, 28, and 44 in their last 4 games... There's really not much doubt in my mind Nevada will hang a 40 spot at home against a hapless defense. Envisioning a 44-28 type score. Still debating a play on NMSU, as the backdoor should be ripe for the taking.

Northwestern +35 -110
Line's obviously inflated, so just gotta cross the fingers and let it ride.... Quite a few guys I respect backing this play as well..

Maryland +4 -102
Missed out on 5, but oh well. FG either way hopefully... 20-17 looks about right to me, Terps prevailing. That was the outcome in '04 when FSU last traveled to MD as 13.5 point favs. FSU has no business being favored on the road in this spot. MD giving up 5 y/r scares me a bit. FSU stout rush D versus MD's potent ground attack makes for an intriguing matchup..
Timh, although admittingly biased, has some good thoughts down below on this game.

Kansas -2 -101
KU hasn't beat Colorado since 2000. And coincidentally, they were 1.5 point home favs in that game in 2000. I think history repeats itself here. KU & CU have endured some disappointing losses this year. I lean KU because of their offense and CU's lack thereof. How the fuck is Colorado gonna win on the road when they can't pass to open up the run. It will be up to CU's defense to keep 'em in this one.

Wyoming +6 -109
Haven't been too impressed with TCU this year. Wyoming brings to the table a successful running attack, which gets countered by a TCU rush D allowing 66.7 ypg. These two match up really well with one another which should make for close game, thus giving the dog value.

Notre Dame -13 -104
Navy backup QB will have a tough task ahead in running that offense without much game experience and the secondary for Navy should get exposed. I expect ND to break out offensively, and those rush numbers can't go anywhere but up. Weis chirping about rankings, so I expect him to to make a statement and not let down on the gas.

Missouri -1.5 -107
It's about time these two square-off. I believe Mizzou sneaks by at home with that balanced attack, in a series that has been OU dominated, of course. Mizzou likes to spread the ball to several of their tight ends. OU's defense may very well put their stamp on this one, but I think the Tigers should be able to capitalize on the opportunity of not having to slow down down AP all game long. Should be a ruckus crowd at noon est.

Virginia -1 -109
The Pack-Terp score last Saturday doesn't really convey how the game went.. The pack got a couple late ones in to make the score look closer than it really was. I like the guts the freshmen QB plays with for NC State, but I'm rolling with the young, hungry home team who seem to have built some momentum coming into this one.

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3 I like the most are Northwestern +35, Wyoming +6, and Missouri -2.5 looks pretty solid
I'd like to get Timh's take on this Maryland game before pulling the trigger... tim, if you ever come across this, i'd apppreciate your thoughts here
Excellent looking card Grind.

I played NIU as well at same number..posted it in Hunts thread. I also think I may get swayed the Deamon Deacons way.
Grind I posted this over in another thread about FSU/MD

Well I am admittedly a little bit biased here, but I agree that MD has a good chance to win this game. They played a solid game against NCST last week though very conservative at times. Ralph seems to play it really tight to the vest in the red zone and you can count on MD going run, run, and maybe pass on 3rd down. I think he has a little distrust of his WR's in general this year due to lack of experience. MD has settled for way too many FG's after being in the red zone and will need to open up the passing game some this week against an FSU team that despite all their injuries is still doing a good job stopping the run. I think MD has a good enough OL to hold their own against a good FSU DL in this one. MD improved a little bit this past weekend defensively and were finally able to get some pressure on the qb (4 sacks of Evans). They still worry me against the run but FSU doesn't have a particularly strong ground game. MD should get a boost from the home crowd this weekend with a night game and plenty of time to get oiled up. I think this one will be very close and if MD can avoid TO's and Ralph will go play action once in a while, they could pull off the SU win.
Grind - Solid looking card this week buddy. With you on NW, and I am leaning to NM State, Buffalo, and N. Illinois. GL bro! :cheers:
Grind looks like you got a great number on that Nev/NMSU over. I watched that Hawaii game on Sat. night and I would imagine this one should be similar with lots of throwing all night long. Curious where you picked up that number of 60?
Tim, that's a bad line... I got 64 @ Pinny. That was a wsex line I had written down as a lean and mistakenly looked over it when editing my card on here...I believe a few places had it at 59 for about a half hour early Sunday. Thanks for sharing your thoughts on the MD game.
Grind...Great looking card. I really like Missouri to beat the Sooners. I need to look at your best bet, Wake, a liitle more. GL this weeken!
Grind...How did you do in baseball this year. I use to track you over at the other site in college basketball, under always chasing, and didn't know where everyone went. Then I saw a thread with this place and what a great site, much more civilized. Hope all is well and good luck to you this year. Like both of your big dogs, Michigan usually has tight games with NW and Mr. Carr doesn't really seem to try and run it up on anyone. I echo your thoughts on BC, figure they will come out and spank them in the beginning, and then call the dogs off. Still think it's hard to cover these huge spreads with the fast clock. Once again good luck.
Chasing, good to see you over here brotha.. Baseball was a roller coaster for me in april and may. I lost about 4 grand over a week in July and decided it was about time to reflect and get my mind right. I had been goin at it strong for about 8 months up to that point.. sometimes you wear down mentally over the long haul, and I feel rejuvenated after a much needed break. See you around..
7-5 sides, 1-0 totals, 1-1 ML dogs this week.... losing on WF proved to be a huge swing for me.

Midnight degenerate action:

VANDALS +25.5 -104