Week 9 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
t was a 5-10-1 week last week, and there's no doubt that I'm struggling with feel. Every time I think a team is going to have an inspired effort, the opposite happens, and teams that seemed to be due for a mad performance, due to spot or something else, all seem to just rise up and deliver perfection. Hopefully it's a phase, but the end result is another climb to coin flip status is needed now that I've fallen back 5 games under .500. It was a negative trends week too, which I mentioned at the end of last week's thread. Thanks to everyone's kind participation in these threads. Season total is 57-62-2

Boston College +7.5 WIN
Georgia Tech +10.5 LOSS
Indiana -6 WIN
Bowling Green +3 WIN
Akron +2.5 WIN
BYU +3 WIN
Texas Tech +6.5 WIN
UTSA -8 LOSS
Vanderbilt +18 WIN
UL-Monroe +7.5 LOSS
LSU +1 LOSS
Duke +11.5 WIN
Kansas +10 WIN

9-4






Friday:

1. @Boston College +7.5 v Louisville (BOL) : Back on the train with the Eagles here after they did very little right last week at Virginia Tech. I anticipate a bounce-back for BC here for a couple reasons. First, their defensive performance last week, especially against the run, seemed like a bit of an outlier. They gave up 532 yards and 9.2(!!) yards per carry last week in Blacksburg. Prior to that, BC was 38th in yards per play and 26th in yards per rush over a much bigger sample size. They are also now returning home, where they haven't lost yet this year, and Thomas Castellanos is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt in Bill O'Brien's system. That should work well against the 106th ranked pass defense that Louisville's sporting. Louiville's offense has been good, but they have found ways to be inefficient(4th down SODs). The Cards are coming off a very tough loss, and this game with Miami last week was a very rough game to bounce back from. Louisville has given up 400+ to every offense with a pulse on the schedule. If Castellanos has his average game, I think he's going to run roughshod on this Louisville defense. The Cards are also in the midst of a 1-5 run as a road favorite, a role Brohm has never been comfortable in. Also, Louisville is one of the worst placekicking teams in the country while BC hasn't missed a kick. I think this stacks up for BC, so I'll take the TD+ here.


BC was up big but lost it late. I was surprised that Louisville toughed it out to get the win. Brohm remains an awful road favorite at Louisville.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
1. @Boston College v Louisville (BOL) : Back on the train with the Eagles here after they did very little right last week at Virginia Tech. I anticipate a bounce-back for BC here for a couple reasons. First, their defensive performance last week, especially against the run, seemed like a bit of an outlier. They gave up 532 yards and 9.2(!!) yards per carry last week in Blacksburg. Prior to that, BC was 38th in yards per play and 26th in yards per rush over a much bigger sample size. They are also now returning home, where they haven't lost yet this year, and Thomas Castellanos is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt in Bill O'Brien's system. That should work well against the 106th ranked pass defense that Louisville's sporting. Louiville's offense has been good, but they have found ways to be inefficient(4th down SODs). The Cards are coming off a very tough loss, and this game with Miami last week was a very rough game to bounce back from. Louisville has given up 400+ to every offense with a pulse on the schedule. If Castellanos has his average game, I think he's going to run roughshod on this Louisville defense. The Cards are also in the midst of a 1-5 run as a road favorite, a role Brohm has never been comfortable in. Also, Louisville is one of the worst placekicking teams in the country while BC hasn't missed a kick. I think this stacks up for BC, so I'll take the TD+ here.
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Good thinking here imo.
 
Not gonna play either of the other Friday games but a couple thoughts on both.

It's hard to erase the memory of the last time Boise and UNLV hooked up, but Boise has consistently given up big points to everyone other than Portland State and Hawaii, so I'll be surprised if they flip the switch on defense against in this one as the Rebels certainly can score. Boise is going to score too, obviously with Jeanty, but don't forget about Cam Camper. Also, one piece of advice for Boise: Don't forget to block Ricky White on the punt block(if they punt).

I would usually be interested in Rutgers at this number, and even though they've been terrible I might still be, but the 11Pm EST start after the travel keeps me far away from considering that. There has to be some bounce back from these horrific performances by Schiano at some point though, right?
 
2. Georgia Tech +10.5 @Virginia Tech: VT burned me last week when they caught BC on wat appears to be an outlier horrific run defensive performance in which things looked weird for BC right from the outset. GTech QB Haynes King was out last week against Notre Dame, but this line indicates that he'll probably be back for this game. Keep an eye on that though. This is a role that GT thrives in. As a conference road dog they are 8-3 ATS since '21 and they're 6-2 as in that role since Key has gotten there in late '22. When you line these two teams up, they are pretty evenly matched. GT will have to step up in their run defense, but I think they'll be able to move the ball on this VT defense. VT's MO on defense is pressuring the QB and getting negative plays with sacks, but GT is among the best offenses in the country in protecting the QB. The run game is solid for the Yellowjackets, and a noon start for the Hokies lessens the sting of the home field advantage. Even in a terrible performance, BC came almost all the way back after being down 28-0 by moving the ball at will for big parts of that game as well as waiting for VT's offense to give the ball away. I think GT has the edge offensively over the VT defense, and if they can get Drones to turn it over, I think they'll be right in this one.

EDIT: This was obviously a bad call by me to assume the line meant King was playing. He was ruled out this morning and the line has not moved. It will be backup Zach Pryon who did not play badly against a much tougher defense last week in ND. I have enough faith in GT's running game and OC Buster Faulkner to keep this one out there. Pryon has some running skills himself, and this is the role to back GT.

RECAP: There was no way on God's green earth that GT shouldn't have covered this. They had a 356-223 yard edge and lost by 15, scoring 6 points. If ever VT was vulnerable to to an outright loss as a double digit favorite, it was today. They stunk, there was no energy in the stadium and they sleepwalked through the entire game. The backup Pyron was horrendous. He missed a ton of throws and had running lanes all day that he was either too slow or too mentally feeble to take advantage of. The 3rd stringer was only slightly better. GT legit had 4 or 5 chances at the backdoor and came up laughably short each time. I dare say if GT had King they win this game easily.
 
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3. @ Indiana -6 v Washington: (BR) I've lost on Washington 3 different times this year, and and in all 3, it was the same story. Coming into the game, you could anticipate Washington winning and borderline dominating the box score at least from a total yards/20 to the 20 standpoint, only to severely underperform on the scoreboard due to inefficient play and failures on 4th down and on Special Teams. Basically, Washington appears to be one of the worst "intangibles" teams we've seen in a long time. They outgained Washington State and lost. They outplayed Rutgers to a ridiculous level and somehow lost that game. They outgained Iowa, but were never in the game and lost 40-16. There's definitely a trend. I was very disgusted with myself after the Iowa game because anyone should have see that coming. They outgained Iowa in the game, but in order to win the game, they would have had to outgain Iowa by probably 300 yards to overcome their weakness in the kicking game and other special teams and "hidden yards" areas. They're going to be behind the 8 ball in that area this week as well, as the Hoosiers are very good on special teams and the Huskies are as bad as 133rd on the country per some metrics(Sp+). The additional problem. however, is that I don't think you can predict the edge in actual scrimmaging in this game like you could in previous weeks. On the contrary, I don't see any weaknesses that Washington can exploit on this IU squad. QB Kurtis Rourke, who has been great this year, is out, but I think Tayven Jackson will be ok this week. Indiana's ability to blow people out has given him a chance to play, and he has experience from having played quite a bit last year as well. He struggled in whatever that offense was for IU last year, but under Cignietti's offense and with receivers like Surratt and Cooper, he's averaged 12.5 yards per attempt on 18 attempts this year, and as good as Rourke has been, Indiana's offense didn't seem to miss a beat with him Jackson in there. Ultimately, I do not trust Washington to be resourceful enough to hang in this one. Based on their previous experience this year, they'd probably have to outgain the Hoosiers by 200 yards, and I do not see that having a chance at happening.

^^^^^^Basically this. Washington once again played well, only to get stopped on downs, throw a pick 6...etc. I again have to ask: How many yards would they have to outgain their opponents by to win a game like this? At least 250, I think, because they'll do whatever boneheaded things are necessary to ensure the score in no way resembles the edge in scrimmaging.
 
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4. Bowling Green +3(-115) @ Toledo (BOL) : I've been right on Toledo 2 weeks in a row, so we'll keep going. Ultimately, I think BG is probably the best team in the MAC considering everything, and they've proved it when they've stepped up in class. They hung very well with both Penn State and Texas A&M on the road, and the biggest reason for that might be their secondary. They are 9th in the country in yards per pass attempt against and they rank favorably in the EPA passing stats as well. Toledo absolutely cannot run the ball, so they rely primarily on inconsistent QB Tucker Gleason and their passing game to move the ball. That's going to be tough to do against BG. Toledo's defense is good, but BG has played a much better schedule as previously mentioned, and as long as Harold Fannin(NFL level tight end) and QB Bazelak stay healthy, they are one of the better offenses in the MAC in Scot Loeffler's scheme. Toledo has been on a win one lose one run and there really isn't any home field advantage in the MAC, so I lean to BG outright in this one. It's likely to be a close game, so being able to buy this to 3 for reasonable juice makes it attractive. Going with the short dog here.

Better team won here. Toledo had some excess boxscore yards, but BG was ahead comfortably all day.
 
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I just cannot believe this line UW/Indiana keeps moving down (now at 5 at multiple places) --- you are right about the intangibles, as the UW has been undisciplined and stupid all year, and that includes the coaching staff at times.

GL this weekend KNUX
 
5. @Akron +2.5 v Eastern Michigan: (BR) I've seen a lot of people on this side, and the line has come down pretty significantly, but I agree with everyone else on this one. Akron has played a schedule that isn't even in the same stratosphere with EMU. The Hurons have played Washington and Miami(OH), perhaps the only two non-hapless
teams on their schedule and they were non-competitive with both, getting outgained by 300 yards by Washington and by 100 by Miami. Miami's passing offense also managed 17 yards per attempt through the air on only 13 attempts. They rank 133rd in yards per pass attempt against, having given up gobs of yards to noted passing juggernauts Jacksonville State and Kent State. Akron is coming off back to back close efforts against Western Michigan and BG, two of the better teams in the MAC, and rattled off 500+ yards against WMU in a game they easily could have won. Joe Moorehead had an extra week to prepare for this, and the Zips don't get a ton of shots at an outright win. EMU is much better as a dog, and I'm not sure if they should be favored here, despite the fact that they're playing the most notorious patsy of the past decade in college football. That fact probably is the main reason the spread started where it did, but Akron is making some inroads on both sides of the ball having held both WMU and BG under 400 yards. Both are significantly better offenses than EMU, so this might seem like a drop in class for the Zip defense. With all due respect to Chris Creighton, I'm fading him this week.

EMU made a comeback and piled up some late yards as a result, but Akron was ahead in this one all day.
 
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jimmymo said:
I just cannot believe this line UW/Indiana keeps moving down (now at 5 at multiple places) --- you are right about the intangibles, as the UW has been undisciplined and stupid all year, and that includes the coaching staff at times.

GL this weekend KNUX
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Thanks Jimmy. I kind of hope Washington wins because I'm in Hoosier country and they're getting frisky(understandably so), but people betting UW now seem to be doing it just because they think IU is due to have the wheels fall off. Maybe it's also Rourke being out, but there's a lot of guys on that football field.
 
Brass wish you the BOL on the weekend, and always appreciate your take on the games. I want to play Indiana but hesitant because of QB and poor schedule they have played.
 
6. BYU +3 (-114)@UCF (BOL) : You might actually be able to get more than this at some point tonight or tomorrow because every talking head I've heard come up with an opinion on this game is all over UCF like a cheap suit, and people are betting this game like they have tomorrow's paper, it appears. I get it. BYU has been fortunate, they are undefeated, they certainly won't stay that way, and UCF seems like the perfect team to dump them. They looked much better last week in a tough game in Ames against Iowa State, but still managed to do what they've been doing most of the season: lose. They moved off KJ Jefferson at QB and moved to Jacurri Brown, and Brown and RJ Harvey ran for 358 yards between them. Malzahn clearly caught Iowa State's staff with their pants down because they couldn't stop the Knights all game long. Brown was 8-20 for 62 yards and 2 picks though, so they'll have to run at will to have a chance to actually win a game, something they haven't done in 5 weeks. This is still the defense that gave up 530 yards to the Cyclones on the way to being outgained by 120 yards, and it's the same team that was a complete no show 3 weeks in a row in non-competitive losses to Colorado, Florida and Cincinnati. Now we are to assume they are going to handle undefeated BYU because they ran the ball well unexpectedly last week and because BYU is due to lose? BYU, despite having forced a ton of turnovers and special teams and defensive scores, also has some pretty good numbers on the year. They're ranked 31st in yards per play on offense and 13th in the same metric on defense. UCF is 123rd in 3rd down defense, so one of BYU's offensive weaknesses(bad on 3rd down) will be mitigated by UCF's incompetence in that area. UCF also cannot rush the passer to save their lives, so Jake Retzlaf should have time to find Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts, both of whom are averaging better than 15 yards per reception. In a similar scenario, UCF absolutely pummeled Oklahoma State in a bad spot in the bounce house last year, but BYU is a bunch of grown men who fight their asses off and have a ton to play for. Perhaps the spot will get the Cougars here, and I agree that BYU is probably due to lose, but why should we assume UCF, with what they've looked like, is the team to take care of it. They've stunk all year, and even in this new metamorphosis, they're still a bad defensive team complemented by an offense that traded some additional running prowess for a complete inability to throw a forward pass.

It's almost like a team who can't play defense will give up points to good offensive teams even though people think those good offensive teams are lucky. I thought Retzlaff was good all day long, and those 2 receivers are very reliable for the Cougs. This was a satisfying one, because among talking heads I pay attention to, 100% were on UCF. It was wishcasting in my opinion.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. BYU +3 (-114)@UCF (BOL) : You might actually be able to get more than this at some point tonight or tomorrow because every talking head I've heard come up with an opinion on this game is all over UCF like a cheap suit, and people are betting this game like they have tomorrow's paper, it appears. I get it. BYU has been fortunate, they are undefeated, they certainly won't stay that way, and UCF seems like the perfect team to dump them. They looked much better last week in a tough game in Ames against Iowa State, but still managed to do what they've been doing most of the season: lose. They moved off KJ Jefferson at QB and moved to Jacurri Brown, and Brown and RJ Harvey ran for 358 yards between them. Malzahn clearly caught Iowa State's staff with their pants down because they couldn't stop the Knights all game long. Brown was 8-20 for 62 yards and 2 picks though, so they'll have to run at will to have a chance to actually win a game, something they haven't done in 5 weeks. This is still the defense that gave up 530 yards to the Cyclones on the way to being outgained by 120 yards, and it's the same team that was a complete no show 3 weeks in a row in non-competitive losses to Colorado, Florida and Cincinnati. Now we are to assume they are going to handle undefeated BYU because they ran the ball well unexpectedly last week and because BYU is due to lose? BYU, despite having forced a ton of turnovers and special teams and defensive scores, also has some pretty good numbers on the year. They're ranked 31st in yards per play on offense and 13th in the same metric on defense. UCF is 123rd in 3rd down defense, so one of BYU's offensive weaknesses(bad on 3rd down) will be mitigated by UCF's incompetence in that area. UCF also cannot rush the passer to save their lives, so Jake Retzlaf should have time to find Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts, both of whom are averaging better than 15 yards per reception. In a similar scenario, UCF absolutely pummeled Oklahoma State in a bad spot in the bounce house last year, but BYU is a bunch of grown men who fight their asses off and have a ton to play for. Perhaps the spot will get the Cougars here, and I agree that BYU is probably due to lose, but why should we assume UCF, with what they've looked like, is the team to take care of it. They've stunk all year, and even in this new metamorphosis, they're still a bad defensive team complemented by an offense that traded some additional running prowess for a complete inability to throw a forward pass.
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Ugh, the bookies coulda made BYU 7 pt favs and woulda got more money on them but everyone and their tinfoil hats have UCF circled based on the line alone. I’m not touching this one but my numbers heavily favor BYU lol good luck. Staying away from this smelly line and maybe that’s what the bookies want
 
7. Texas Tech +6.5 @TCU (BOL): I think we are getting value here in a game with two pretty evenly matched teams based on recency bias from what happened last week. Texas Tech gave up an avalanche of points to Baylor, a team that's getting better offensively but still hasn't garnered the respect of the public, and at the same time, TCU was winning t a Utah team that the public does have a high regard for. Tech's best player on offense is RB Tahj Brooks, who is approaching 1,000 yards on the season and already has 8 TDs. TCU has already given up 200+ yards on the f=ground to Houston, SMU and UCF, so Brooks should have plenty of room to run. TCU's Josh Hoover is having a good year and Tech is 82nd against the pass, so we should see some scoring. However, TCU has had some bad karma at home, having lost their first and only 2 conference games already, first to UCF and then 3 weeks later in an abysmal effort against Houston. I think 6 is a little too much here, and if a couple things snowball for TCU, they could see themselves in danger of losing this one outright as Tech is surely looking to bounce back from the embarrassing effort against Baylor.

Tech should have won this game. They lost Morton, but the backup came in and did well until he fumbled when Tech was maneuvering for the game winning field goal. Tough luck for the Red Raiders fans.
 
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8. UTSA -8 @Tulsa (BR) : UTSA came into the season as one of the favorites in the American, believe it or not. The had to rebuild as a result of losing longtime QB Frank Harris, but enough returned for people to assume they would be competitive in conference again. Then in back to back weeks, the Roadrunners got shellacked by Texas State and Texas, and all of their metrics suffered as a result. Since then they've been good in the boxscores, having outgained their last 3 conference opponents by more than 100 yards per game, but they dropped a couple of them. They handled FAU last week and now they get Tulsa at Tulsa, which has been a great proposition for Tulsa opponents. The Golden Hurricane is 0 for it's last 6 as a home underdog, and now QB Owen Mc Cown gets a crack at Tulsa's 130th ranked pass defense. The Roadrunner pass offense is rounding into shape now so the timing is good. Tulsa ranks poorly in virtually every metric, so Mc Cown and company should be comfortable.

I dismissed this game as a winner when they were up 35-7 at half. Bad karma there. UTSA collapsed.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
7. Texas Tech +6.5 @TCU (BOL): I think we are getting value here in a game with two pretty evenly matched teams based on recency bias from what happened last week. Texas Tech gave up an avalanche of points to Baylor, a team that's getting better offensively but still hasn't garnered the respect of the public, and at the same time, TCU was winning t a Utah team that the public does have a high regard for. Tech's best player on offense is RB Tahj Brooks, who is approaching 1,000 yards on the season and already has 8 TDs. TCU has already given up 200+ yards on the f=ground to Houston, SMU and UCF, so Brooks should have plenty of room to run. TCU's Josh Hoover is having a good year and Tech is 82nd against the pass, so we should see some scoring. However, TCU has had some bad karma at home, having lost their first and only 2 conference games already, first to UCF and then 3 weeks later in an abysmal effort against Houston. I think 6 is a little too much here, and if a couple things snowball for TCU, they could see themselves in danger of losing this one outright as Tech is surely looking to bounce back from the embarrassing effort against Baylor.
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We have very similar thoughts here.

I think I might be on side and ML.
 
Br@ssknux said:
2. Georgia Tech +10.5 @Virginia Tech: VT burned me last week when they caught BC on wat appears to be an outlier horrific run defensive performance in which things looked weird for BC right from the outset. GTech QB Haynes King was out last week against Notre Dame, but this line indicates that he'll probably be back for this game. Keep an eye on that though. This is a role that GT thrives in. As a conference road dog they are 8-3 ATS since '21 and they're 6-2 as in that role since Key has gotten there in late '22. When you line these two teams up, they are pretty evenly matched. GT will have to step up in their run defense, but I think they'll be able to move the ball on this VT defense. VT's MO on defense is pressuring the QB and getting negative plays with sacks, but GT is among the best offenses in the country in protecting the QB. The run game is solid for the Yellowjackets, and a noon start for the Hokies lessens the sting of the home field advantage. Even in a terrible performance, BC came almost all the way back after being down 28-0 by moving the ball at will for big parts of that game as well as waiting for VT's offense to give the ball away. I think GT has the edge offensively over the VT defense, and if they can get Drones to turn it over, I think they'll be right in this one.
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You really think king be back? I thought 10.5 was an absolute tell he be out, if he plays this line is stupid, no way vatech covers imo, I don’t think he playing tho. If anyone hears otherwise please speak up cause I’ll hammer Gtech with king getting anything more than a td!
 
DapperDan said:
Ugh, the bookies coulda made BYU 7 pt favs and woulda got more money on them but everyone and their tinfoil hats have UCF circled based on the line alone. I’m not touching this one but my numbers heavily favor BYU lol good luck. Staying away from this smelly line and maybe that’s what the bookies want
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The way I looked at it was I rather play byu and lose than pass and watch them win again and not make any money cause I was scared of the same asshole oddsmakers that made ucf -10 vs Colorado!
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. BYU +3 (-114)@UCF (BOL) : You might actually be able to get more than this at some point tonight or tomorrow because every talking head I've heard come up with an opinion on this game is all over UCF like a cheap suit, and people are betting this game like they have tomorrow's paper, it appears. I get it. BYU has been fortunate, they are undefeated, they certainly won't stay that way, and UCF seems like the perfect team to dump them. They looked much better last week in a tough game in Ames against Iowa State, but still managed to do what they've been doing most of the season: lose. They moved off KJ Jefferson at QB and moved to Jacurri Brown, and Brown and RJ Harvey ran for 358 yards between them. Malzahn clearly caught Iowa State's staff with their pants down because they couldn't stop the Knights all game long. Brown was 8-20 for 62 yards and 2 picks though, so they'll have to run at will to have a chance to actually win a game, something they haven't done in 5 weeks. This is still the defense that gave up 530 yards to the Cyclones on the way to being outgained by 120 yards, and it's the same team that was a complete no show 3 weeks in a row in non-competitive losses to Colorado, Florida and Cincinnati. Now we are to assume they are going to handle undefeated BYU because they ran the ball well unexpectedly last week and because BYU is due to lose? BYU, despite having forced a ton of turnovers and special teams and defensive scores, also has some pretty good numbers on the year. They're ranked 31st in yards per play on offense and 13th in the same metric on defense. UCF is 123rd in 3rd down defense, so one of BYU's offensive weaknesses(bad on 3rd down) will be mitigated by UCF's incompetence in that area. UCF also cannot rush the passer to save their lives, so Jake Retzlaf should have time to find Darius Lassiter and Chase Roberts, both of whom are averaging better than 15 yards per reception. In a similar scenario, UCF absolutely pummeled Oklahoma State in a bad spot in the bounce house last year, but BYU is a bunch of grown men who fight their asses off and have a ton to play for. Perhaps the spot will get the Cougars here, and I agree that BYU is probably due to lose, but why should we assume UCF, with what they've looked like, is the team to take care of it. They've stunk all year, and even in this new metamorphosis, they're still a bad defensive team complemented by an offense that traded some additional running prowess for a complete inability to throw a forward pass.
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Totally agree, I’ll be damned im letting the line scare me off. There no damn way byu should be dogs! I don’t even think ucf does the things that will stress the Mormons.
 
2daBank said:
You really think king be back? I thought 10.5 was an absolute tell he be out, if he plays this line is stupid, no way vatech covers imo, I don’t think he playing tho. If anyone hears otherwise please speak up cause I’ll hammer Gtech with king getting anything more than a td!
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Yeah, I thought the same with this line.


Early in the week he was ruled out.

Thursday, coach said he was holding out hope.
 
OK guys, you are correct, King has been officially ruled out. I thought with ND being more than 14 on a quasi neutral without King, VT would be 12 or 13 at home without him. Line is still 10 so I was obviously way off on that. Yikes, pretty embarrassing. I'm going to go ahead and make an edit to the original post, but I agree with you CPA and I'm not gonna buy out of the play. We'll let it ride.
 
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Oh and by the way CPA, don't apologize for contributing. You guys gave me a great chance to recover and gain back some credibility by commenting rather than just reading it, concluding "this guy's off his rocker" and moving on. Thanks as always and that's why I appreciate the feedback so much.
 
9. @Vanderbilt +18 v Texas (BR) : I'm not telling anyone anything they don't already know, but in games in which Vandy has been a dog this year, they've covered all 4. They've won three of them, lost one in overtime and covered the spread in all 4 by 20, 19, 14 and 28 points. Compared to what they were getting against Alabama, this is a discount for the favorite, but you would think so after what they've done. Obviously, Texas has much much much more talent than Vandy, as did Missouri, Virginia Tech, Kentucky and of course Alabama. But Vandy s a different animal from what they've been in the past. The 2 biggest reasons for this are QB Diego Pavia and his former coach Jerry Kill who came with from New Mexico State(an even bigger wasteland for college football than Vandy) to help out. When you look at the straight numbers, you see edges for Texas all over the place, but as they proved last week, the schedule that those numbers were built on is a bit suspect. Vandy is doing a couple things very well. First Pavia is very efficient in the passing game. He's averaging 9 yards per attempt with an 11/1 ratio. The YPA number is good for 10th in the country. Vandy is also 5th in the country on 3rd down, mostly because of Pavia's feel and some well designed plays by former NMSU OC Tim Beck. Defensively they've been "clutch and opportunistic", which are words that don't sound sustainable, but I think they might be against this Texas offense. Quinn Ewers just has not been very good. He's averaging only 7.1 yards per attempt. He can't run at all and seems to get himself going the wrong way whenever he leaves the pocket. Per PFF he grades out 124th among qualifying QBs, right behind USF's Byrum Brown and just ahead of Akron's Ben Finley. He's got 4 big time throws compared to 10 turnover worthy plays. There's plenty of talent on Texas, but this is the kind of QB that Vandy can continue to be "opportunistic" against. At this point, the way things have been going for Vandy, you have to ride them as a dog, so I'm certainly not going to suggest anything different.

Vandy is solid. Texas wasn't great due to the spot but Vandy had a lot to do with that too. They've mastered the rope a dope, and Pavis comes up with big plays when he needs them...if not to win the game but at least to cement the cover.
 
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CPA-hole said:
I bet GA Tech last week when it got to 14. Pyron wasn't the reason they lost. Special teams killed them. I still think Pyron is a capable backup and G Tech is the play here despite King probably not playing.
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I didn’t get a chance to catch any of it but I saw early on his stat line was pretty impressive, then all a sudden game was out of reach which prop the special teams you referring to, I certainly don’t blame ya to take 10.5 even without king, I don’t think vtech is 10 points better than then long as the qb deniable. I don’t particularly like vtech qb! Lol. I just feel like king really makes that team go the way he runs and gets crucial 1st downs when they need them. I’m a huge fan that team when king plays, I just dunno the other guy but I sure wouldn’t lay 10 w Hokies. Hope it cashes bro!!
 
10. @La Monroe +7.5(-115) @South Alabama: (BR) : I happen to have a 250/1 ticket on La Mo to win th Sun Belt, so I need no additional rooting interest in the WarHawks this week, but that's to win. I also think they are a good bet to cover this number. They're 5-1 despite being dogged in every game after their FCS opener save last week at home against the cadaver of Southern Miss. Like Vandy, they've been great ATS. They got front doored by Texas when they were completely overmatched by the Longhorns, but in their other games, they've covered by 37, 10, 18 and 12. They've done it mostly due to a surprisingly solid defense and good running game and clearly competent coaching under Bill Clark protege Bryan Vincent. This week, they play an above average in South Alabama, but i think their defense matches up well. Gio Lopez can throw the ball, but the WarHawks are ranked 28th in the country in overall yards per play and 23rd in yards per pass attempt. They've also been able to get pressure on the QB consistently, ranking 32nd in sacks per game. Offensively, they've moved on at QB from General Booty to Aiden Armienta, and he's looked good. In limited action he's at 8 yards per attempt and he can run it, but their bread and butter is RB Ahmad Hardy. They aren't setting the world on fire on offense, but they're playing a subpar squad this week in the Jags, who struggle covering people, getting pressure on the QB and getting off the field on 3rd down. I think this Monroe squad has established confidence, and their win against JMU shows that they won't be intimidated by anyone. Vincent has established a winning culture there so I don't see an also ran like USA running them out. They should be in this one to the end and I'll be hoping that they can pull off the outright for obvious reasons.

Warhawks were doing great in the first half, but then, but the effort changed drastically in the second half. As the great Jeff Spicoli once said "Haha...Somethin happened to 'em man." 41 straight points for the Jags, and that was it.
 
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11. LSU +1 @Texas A&M: This one is too much fun to sit out in my opinion, so I'm going to hitch my wagon to the Tigers here, even though it looks like a toss up for the most part. I've mentioned many times how much I like Mike Elko, but the A&M history in big home games is still too much for me to ignore(something like 3-15 straight up against ranked opponents) Maybe Elko will eventually turn that around, but it's kind of like turning around a battleship, and by the way, Missouri doesn't count. I'm also not a believer in Connor Weigman. He's got a 3/4 ratio and is totally inconsistent. The LSU defense has also looked a ton better now that they have taken leadership from the maniacal Whit Weeks, and Nussmeier has been good all year on the offensive end thanks to an offensive line that can keep him clean against good pass rushing teams like A&M. This is more of a feel play, but I just think LSU is more likely to make the plays necessary to pull this one out.

Another one that turned on a dime. LSU was in total control of this game until Nussmeier lost his marbles. The kid has been solid as a rock all year but just turned into rattled mess. If Jim Harbaugh was his coach, he'd forbid him to eat chicken going forward. I'd love to know what the Aggies produced in yards per play after Reed came in and momentum changed. LSU looked like the right side for a huge part of this game, but certainly not when it counted.
 
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12. @Duke +11.5 v SMU(BR) : Although I think we all know Duke isn't as good as it's record, this seems like too many points in my opinion. Defensively, I think Duke matches up well with this SMU offense. Since SMU went to Kevin Jennings, they've been more efficient throwing the ball, and that's Manny Diaz's specialty. Duke is 9th in the country in yards per attempt against, and they've been able to get pressure on the QB as well. SMU also lost their best offensive player, TE RJ Maryland for the year, and he's been a huge part of their pass game. This is also their third straight road game, and they are coming off a trip to Stanford last week and now have to go all the way to the east coast in this one. They have a huge game with Pitt looming next week, so this is a very tough sandwich spot for them. Duke's good fortune may end in a hurry, but if it lasts one more week, this is going to be a hard spread for the Ponies to cover.

Murphy is frustrating to watch, but he made some great throws when he needed to to Pancol, who looks great in the passing game. If he would have made a bee line for the pylon on that 2 point conversion, I think he makes it and Duke wins. Cover was hardly in doubt though. Good effort by Duke.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
11. LSU +1 @Texas A&M: This one is too much fun to sit out in my opinion, so I'm going to hitch my wagon to the Tigers here, even though it looks like a toss up for the most part. I've mentioned many times how much I like Mike Elko, but the A&M history in big home games is still too much for me to ignore(something like 3-15 straight up against ranked opponents) Maybe Elko will eventually turn that around, but it's kind of like turning around a battleship, and by the way, Missouri doesn't count. I'm also not a believer in Connor Weigman. He's got a 3/4 ratio and is totally inconsistent. The LSU defense has also looked a ton better now that they have taken leadership from the maniacal Whit Weeks, and Nussmeier has been good all year on the offensive end thanks to an offensive line that can keep him clean against good pass rushing teams like A&M. This is more of a feel play, but I just think LSU is more likely to make the plays necessary to pull this one out.
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100% agree, love lsu this week. Best oline Aggies have faced, think they can give Nussmeyer time and I’ll take him over weigman all day every day, especially when I think an improving lsu d will be able to get to him.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. @Duke +11.5 v SMU(BR) : Although I think we all know Duke isn't as good as it's record, this seems like too many points in my opinion. Defensively, I think Duke matches up well with this SMU offense. Since SMU went to Kevin Jennings, they've been more efficient throwing the ball, and that's Manny Diaz's specialty. Duke is 9th in the country in yards per attempt against, and they've been able to get pressure on the QB as well. SMU also lost their best offensive player, TE RJ Maryland for the year, and he's been a huge part of their pass game. This is also their third straight road game, and they are coming off a trip to Stanford last week and now have to go all the way to the east coast in this one. They have a huge game with Pitt looming next week, so this is a very tough sandwich spot for them. Duke's good fortune may end in a hurry, but if it lasts one more week, this is going to be a hard spread for the Ponies to cover.
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Who’d have thought Manny Diaz would turn into a good coach in Durham?
 
M.W. said:
Thoughts on Wisc or Neb?
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I thought about taking with Wisconsin but I didn’t want to run into Franklin as a road favorite and he is overdue to cover one. Wisconsin is much better with Walker running the ball and they’ve found a downfield passing game, but that is likely to dry up against that Penn State D.

As for OSU/Neb, lines that big have so much variance I typically avoid them. Didn’t have much interest there although OSU can probably name the score.
 
13. Kansas +10 @Kansas State: K State has dominated this series lately, but i like the timing for the Jayhawks in this one. The season has been a disaster, but there's still time to salvage things, and their first game out of the bye last week against Houston looked promising. They put up 467 yards on a solid Houston defense and Jalon Daniels has started to look like himself. K State has been bad all year defending the pass(88th), and despite their struggles, KU has been very good on 3rd down all year. On the other side of the ball, if KU can just hold up against the run(and they've had some fleeting success in doing that), I don't think Avery Johnson can just stand back there and throw it on them. I don't think many give KU a chance in this one based on how their season has gone, but I think they have a good effort in them, and I trust Leipold to keep the momentum going after the off week.

Holy shit the curse continues for Kansas. A Trubisky to Javon Wims level drop in the endzone that would have made it 14-0, a return guy catches a kickoff and steps OOB at the 1, which leads to a safety and a shanked extra point and they lose by 2. Daniels and the Kansas offense continue to look much better. As long as they don't have to win, I think KU is a viable play as a dog. KSU, I wouldn't lay points with at this point.
 
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That's gonna be it for the week.

Some that I considered but passed on:

Really liked the idea of taking Jonathan Smith on a roll against this Michigan coaching staff, but I still see issues for MSU's offense against the Michigan defense and I think Warren is the most competent of the Michigan QBs. I should probably just blindly fade Mihcigan at this point, but they are at home and Chiles can be a turnover machine.

Iowa should hammer Northwestern, but they still have no passing game. If Northwestern is at all competent against the run in this game I'd hate to be on the wrong side of a 19-6 type game.

I feel stupid for not going against Auburn when all I need is for them to lose outright in a road game against a decent team, but my numbers give the edge to them and I'm still shellshocked by that hideous performance by Kentucky last week.

Cal as a double digit favorite should be faded, but have you seen Oregon State's defense lately? Specifically their run defense? No thanks.

I like Rice getting a TD against UCONN now that they've got their footing a bit, but that seemed like too much of a reactionary play based on some bad bets on UConn in previous weeks.

Washington State is a solid road favorite and John Mateer will run wild on SDSU, but laying more than 2 TDs with a shit defense is not a good idea.

I hope everyone has cashes a bunch of tickets! Take care.
 
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