Week 9 ML Dogs

[s--k]

As such huge favorites vs Nevada, you think they were possibly looking ahead, could've been preparing for W9 these last three weeks..?

Perhaps there is some of that. They just look pretty sloppy on offense at times this year. I'll give them a pass for a sloppy game vs SDSt D. They had the 4 turnovers vs CSU. Last week, paying closer attention, I saw their OL couldn't pass block and the receivers continue to drop balls for Love. Their D has been pretty good...front 7 is probably a strength there which is good facing AF.

 

[s--k]

5 of the 10 noon starts were upsets! Good way to start off a day for dog lovers that is fo sho.

I actually stopped paying attention to the K St game for a while because I tried to win both sides of the San Jose - Army game...having SJ for the game, I took Army 2nd H. Anyone who watched that knows what happened. That win meant as much to me as KSt winning SU actually. Been a fun day, but there is still work to do. Tulsa not looking likely, CSU playing well.

 

[JROCK1966]

5 of the 10 noon starts were upsets! Good way to start off a day for dog lovers that is fo sho.

I actually stopped paying attention to the K St game for a while because I tried to win both sides of the San Jose - Army game...having SJ for the game, I took Army 2nd H. Anyone who watched that knows what happened. That win meant as much to me as KSt winning SU actually. Been a fun day, but there is still work to do. Tulsa not looking likely, CSU playing well.

Did you have SJSt ATS? ML?

 

[s--k]

I just took San Jose with the pts. Army was -7 2nd H. The stats were pretty even, there was a key fumble that set up SJ. Figured Army's ssn was on the line in that locker room. Started well, Army scored to open 3rd. Then SJ got that highlight catch everyone is playing on TV, and they went for 2 and got it which totally fucked up the math for Army to cover or push 7 in the 2nd H. There was a key stand that held SJ to a FG and then Army was shitting the bed totally, just couldn't do anything right. Except they got a key D stand to get the ball back with like 1-1/2min left. They went maybe 65 yards and scored on a QB scramble with like :13 left to win the 2nd H 19-11. Very very improbable win that was. I am very grateful it hit.

 

[s--k]

I put a little on Fresno 2nd H -5.5 to hedge

 

[pressitup]

I'm trying to watch too many games, with a buzz, is Kansas on anyone's radar here?

Rock, chalk

 

[s--k]

Rock, chalk

How 'bout that ending!?!

 

[s--k]

Kansas State 10 to win 118
Rutgers 10 to win 24
Oklahoma State 50 to win 156
Maryland 10 to win 53
Tulsa 50 to win 148
Colorado State 50 to win 231

I like some of the smaller dogs too like Mich St, Tulane, Duke, but instead of netting an extra $15-20 on a $50 ML play; unless I really want to invest alot on the game, I'd rather just put more on the ATS for those smaller dogs, buying insurance I guess you could say rather than going all or nothing.

That makes me happy, I needed a day like that. Alas, Tulsa breaks my heart again...missed short FG as time expired, lost by 1...ugh...it's always the ones that got away.

Lots of good dogs won today. Hope everyone did well.

Something I've been thinking about today. I was on a trip with my wife this week, we were in Maine - that is why I wasn't around at all until Thursday night, didn't look at any games until Thursday. Anyway, we are in Maine in Fort Williams Park near Portland and I see this guy with this bleach white hat and a huge K STATE logo on the front. So I say, "hey, how do you like your chances this week?" His reply, "not very good". I said "well, you got a nice win last week, you never know, good luck". Dude was probably thinking today 'who the hell was that in the park?'

 

[B.A.R.]

That makes me happy, I needed a day like that. Alas, Tulsa breaks my heart again...missed short FG as time expired, lost by 1...ugh...it's always the ones that got away.

Lots of good dogs won today. Hope everyone did well.

Something I've been thinking about today. I was on a trip with my wife this week, we were in Maine - that is why I wasn't around at all until Thursday night, didn't look at any games until Thursday. Anyway, we are in Maine in Fort Williams Park near Portland and I see this guy with this bleach white hat and a huge K STATE logo on the front. So I say, "hey, how do you like your chances this week?" His reply, "not very good". I said "well, you got a nice win last week, you never know, good luck". Dude was probably thinking today 'who the hell was that in the park?'

Awesome day man.

Very happy for ya and everyone

Very neat story too.

 

[twinkie13]

What a great thread

Nice work here.

 

[booksbestfriend]

That makes me happy, I needed a day like that. Alas, Tulsa breaks my heart again...missed short FG as time expired, lost by 1...ugh...it's always the ones that got away.

Lots of good dogs won today. Hope everyone did well.

Something I've been thinking about today. I was on a trip with my wife this week, we were in Maine - that is why I wasn't around at all until Thursday night, didn't look at any games until Thursday. Anyway, we are in Maine in Fort Williams Park near Portland and I see this guy with this bleach white hat and a huge K STATE logo on the front. So I say, "hey, how do you like your chances this week?" His reply, "not very good". I said "well, you got a nice win last week, you never know, good luck". Dude was probably thinking today 'who the hell was that in the park?'

Hate to get spiritual on you, but maybe he was on hard times and your words of encouragement sparked something. As he looks back in retrospect, he can take the kind words of a stranger to lift him in his time of need. The fact that you were right only magnifies the situation. Or, he could have just thought, “who’s this f-ing guy”. Ima go with the first.

Congrats on the breakout ML weekend.

 

[s--k]

What a great thread

Nice work here.

I thought about throwing $10 on Auburn, but didn't want to have to explain it to twinkie, so that saved me a little there.

Really tough loss for Tulane huh? To be down...was it 24-0? To come back and tie twice and lose at the buzzer, tough one. But very happy they came back for the cover, wish they would've won though.

 

[s--k]

This can get copied into the week 10 thread when it gets started. Last two weeks have been pretty good. The % of upsets has gone up nearly 2% since week 7.

Week 8 – 14 upsets

Week 9 - 17 upsets

556 games played, 110 upsets – 19.78% have been upsets*
*lines right around zero can lead to different results, for instance, the season log I am using shows Arizona St as a favorite vs Washington St and Wake Forest as a favorite vs FSU - but my line source show both as dogs. So there could be some variation in the actual number. For consistency in the count I’m going off of the Northcoast Sports log.

Biggest upsets (odds from scoresandodds.com):

10/19 – Illinois +2222 (Wisconsin)
9/14 - Citadel +1500 VegasInsider (Georgia Tech)
10/12 - Bowling Green +1358 (Toledo)
10/26 – Kansas State +1150 (Oklahoma)
8/31 - Georgia State +1150 (Tennessee)
10/19 – Vanderbilt +1011 (Mizzou)
10/12 - South Carolina +837 (Georgia)
9/13 - Kansas +711 (Boston College)
9/21 - UCLA +679 (Washington State)
9/21 - San Jose +664 (Arkansas)
10/12 - UNLV +534 (Vanderbilt)
8/31 - Wyoming +533 (Mizzou)

Best Teams:
Georgia State +1150, +199, +145, +150

BYU +144, +188,+215
Kansas State +226,+164, +1150
Western Kentucky +278, +148, +184
Baylor and Miami, Oh would have 3, but the log source shows them as 3 upset wins, the spread source shows them as just 2.

 

[2daBank]

That makes me happy, I needed a day like that. Alas, Tulsa breaks my heart again...missed short FG as time expired, lost by 1...ugh...it's always the ones that got away.

Lots of good dogs won today. Hope everyone did well.

Something I've been thinking about today. I was on a trip with my wife this week, we were in Maine - that is why I wasn't around at all until Thursday night, didn't look at any games until Thursday. Anyway, we are in Maine in Fort Williams Park near Portland and I see this guy with this bleach white hat and a huge K STATE logo on the front. So I say, "hey, how do you like your chances this week?" His reply, "not very good". I said "well, you got a nice win last week, you never know, good luck". Dude was probably thinking today 'who the hell was that in the park?'

I feel so bad for those Tulsa kids, you could argue they coulda won all 3 the smu, cincy, aND Memphis games. Real shame they lost all 3. Cincy didn’t look as close on the scoreboard but they really controlled that game imo, just made tons of mistakes in scoring range.

During the Memphis game I was really thinking I might be riding them going forward had they won that game, already been on them a lot and was thinking their schedule had to get easier but now another heartbreaker and I’m afraid they might be demoralized like after the smu game when they proceeded to get destroyed by navy. 10 point dogs again at Tulane. That woulda been really juicy had they won this Memphis game, now not so sure.

 

[twinkie13]

I thought about throwing $10 on Auburn, but didn't want to have to explain it to twinkie, so that saved me a little there.

Really tough loss for Tulane huh? To be down...was it 24-0? To come back and tie twice and lose at the buzzer, tough one. But very happy they came back for the cover, wish they would've won though.

Bro......my Dad was bummmmmmmed.