Week 9 ML Dogs

B.A.R. said:
Something weird is gonna happen with this weather tomorrow.

Now, which one? Or one(s)?

Sparty with a mucked up field, yup. That is a Dantonio special. I already liked them but this feels even more right.

More later..
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Should be right in their wheelhouse and fits the MO perfectly. Just wish they haven't looked like ass every game but one or two this year.
 
San Jose State @ Army: My comparison in the pic below uses previous season's win totals also the margin of the previous year's matchup between these same two teams. The SU record for the home team in this situation is a whopping 89.5% win percentage. But! When I sort the games by the lines with the lowest line up top, all lines of -13 or below provide a 1-8 SU record for the home team (highlighted in the big green square below). Army, of course, falls right smack in the middle. Interesting......

army-sjst.jpg
 
I think I've wrapped up my list of possible plays. Any thoughts on these??

Wisky 1st Qtr & 1st Half
Kentucky
Rice
Temple
San Jose State
Mississippi State
Illinois
UMass
 
JROCK1966 said:
I think I've wrapped up my list of possible plays. Any thoughts on these??

Wisky 1st Qtr & 1st Half
Kentucky
Rice
Temple
San Jose State
Mississippi State
Illinois
UMass
Click to expand...

I'm not going to discourage your choices. I could see myself on a few of those ATS.

Who is QB for UK?

I think Miss St kinda sucks, but wouldn't surprise if they won just because aTm is underachieving as bad.

I don't think you talked about Illinois, what you got on them?
 
s--k said:
I'm not going to discourage your choices. I could see myself on a few of those ATS.

Who is QB for UK?

I think Miss St kinda sucks, but wouldn't surprise if they won just because aTm is underachieving as bad.

I don't think you talked about Illinois, what you got on them?
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Illinois? All I remember last week were the announcers toward the end of the game saying how Lovie Smith had told them (the day before the game) they were healthy for the first time all year and don't be surprised if they shock the nation. If that's the case, and they are healthy, then they just might be getting started playing their best ball of the season. My first thought in backing them is the obvious possible letdown from such a huge win. But that's my bias and my bias makes this a tough play for me. That's a good thing though because easy plays for me never win (remember my 13-1 trend for the Gamecocks last week?) As far as my trends, the lone loss in the pic below was a -8.5 home fav. Purdue opened at -7.5 and moved to -9.5....all over the line of the one loss in the pic. I know this sounds most likely a stretch but I think I'm going to give Lovie Smith's team a shot and hope they are beginning to play their best ball of the season.

purdue-ill.jpg
 
@s--k Stoops & Eddie Gran do not make subs unless there is an injury. They'll stick with Bowden. All the publicity this week was how Bowden was a better matchup vs. Missouri D. Weather will suck there tomorrow night too so it might affect Bryant's passing perhaps?? I really liked how our defense was playing last week as well.
 
Seeing how Illinois handles success is an unknown, because the words success and Illinois are never uttered in the same sentence.

Yes, I heard how Lovie was saying "don't be surprised if we win" - but he's a coach, so of course he is going to be the eternal optimist.

Illinois with Peters is a pretty decent ILL team...in an average kind of way. They are 2-0 as a dog ATS with Peters, 1-1 SU as a dog with Peters and 3-2 SU & ATS overall with Peters. Purdue is likely to continue to be a roller coaster so ILL would have a shot so long as they want to back last week's results up and not let it go as a fluke.

I can see it.
 
s--k said:
With Whipple as OC Pitt has transitioned to more of an open O now with 20 more pass attempts per game so far than they averaged last year.
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I really don’t think either will have much if any success rushing the ball. This thing looks like a turnover fest in the making., think I’m staying far away.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I think I've wrapped up my list of possible plays. Any thoughts on these??

Wisky 1st Qtr & 1st Half
Kentucky
Rice
Temple
San Jose State
Mississippi State
Illinois
UMass
Click to expand...

Initially I thought I was gonna be all about the over in Purdue but weather doesn’t look to be cooperating. If that the case I think it def a advantage for Illini. So either I don’t think the weather a problem and I’ll be on over, if I think the conditions suck for over I think that will put me on Illini w the points and maybe small taste on ml. Purdue seems almost allergic to running the ball, that be interesting if it rainy with gusting winds!

If only tigers didn’t go and lose last week cause I was eyeing uk, completely missing the possibility vandy might upend them! Lol. That said they have played 2 road games vs 2 teams inferior to uk and lost them both!! It just hard to see a bad performance after last week, wanna say under this staff they been pretty strong off a loss., damn vandy.

I think value on wiscy after last week choke job but I don’t think I can or want to get in front of osu right now.

Haven’t did much looking into the others
 
For better or worse I’ve completely sold myself on sparty. Just feels like a great spot for them and psu feels ripe to fall.

Love wku. They sporting one of best 3rd down defenses in the county while on the other side despite limited offense they actually pretty strong converting 3rd downs while Marshall one of worst in country getting off the field on the money down! That good enough for me and I love road dogs who pack a strong defense!

Feel like I have to play northwestern. Surely they gonna win another game at some point. Iowa offense scares me none.

I still can’t figure out the ville line, that implies uva almost -10 at home? I don’t buy it. I’ve been really impressed w ville. Uva has a solid d but I think saterfield will figure out a way to have his boys move the ball and if they can score some points even tho their d not very good it forces uva offense to do something it not great at, score back! Lol.

Those seem like the 4 I like most, have already played ats earlier in week. Prob do a RR parlay w the mls and add a NHL game I really like! Lol
 
Two super hot teams right now...Georgia State has won 3 straight as dogs, short fav today home vs Troy. Ball State, 4 straight covers, 3 straight up wins, a small home fav today against Ohio.

Can those two keep it going or will the perceived "better" teams who find themselves dogged today in Troy and Ohio ruin the cinderella runs?
 
Akron @ N. Illinois: this might be a letdown spot for N. Illinois having played 2 previous away games. Their QB is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. We all know Akron is pitiful but I go back to my "Law of Averages" post earlier in the thread. This might be one of those plays. Does NILL have a capable backup QB? At +1450 Akron might be worth a little lunch money!
 
JROCK1966 said:
Does Kansas State have any shot at all today?
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Funny that you mentioned them because I came into this thread to say that I took them and put a little on the money line. Oklahoma has a tendency to no show a time or two each season against inferior opponents and I just have a feeling that today’s the day. Either that or Oklahoma wins by 50 but I just have a feeling that K State will keep it close.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Akron @ N. Illinois: this might be a letdown spot for N. Illinois having played 2 previous away games. Their QB is listed as doubtful due to a concussion. We all know Akron is pitiful but I go back to my "Law of Averages" post earlier in the thread. This might be one of those plays. Does NILL have a capable backup QB? At +1450 Akron might be worth a little lunch money!
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NIU's backup is Marcus Childers who is a multi-year starter for the prior coaching staff. So yes.

Speaking of backups, I saw that Akron started Tr Fr Gibson at QB. Nelson had been playing through injury (poorly).

So if anything that could maybe aid this very long shot upset, it could be that the kid makes the O work in his second start because his first start home vs UB yielded the same, or worse, offensive production Akron had been coming up with.

But I'm not NIU fan...
 
brewers888 said:
Funny that you mentioned them because I came into this thread to say that I took them and put a little on the money line. Oklahoma has a tendency to no show a time or two each season against inferior opponents and I just have a feeling that today’s the day. Either that or Oklahoma wins by 50 but I just have a feeling that K State will keep it close.
Click to expand...

I have a little bit of the same feeling actually.

We need Hurts to make some bonehead decisions, which is possible, see what he did vs Texas essentially keeping UT in that game instead of a blowout.

We need Kansas State to play great D in the red zone, which is possible, their RZ TD allowed % is 2nd in the league.

We need Kansas State to not turn it over, they've only thrown 1 INT all year.

We need Kansas State to excel on special teams (7 of 8 FGs, Big Xll leading KO ret avg, 3rd punt ret avg).

We need essentially need a perfect game out of Kansas St and a mistake filled game out of OU. Could happen.
 
Starting to run out of time to come up with good angles and reasons here, but I ask...

Is this Fresno State team that much better than Colorado State?
 
RetroVK said:
Three good games in a row feom unlv. On the coaches show he said he liked how they played vs fresno
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Maybe they did play better vs Boise and Fresno than the finals say and the win at Vandy obviously. But their run D has allowed over 7 ypc the last 3 weeks.

I'm a little burned by SJ's game vs SD's last week. SJ just couldn't get them off the field. This game figures to have SD's full attention as UNLV upset them last year.
 
Nobody likes Rutgers over Liberty?

I mean there is talk of backing UMass...I guess because UConn is pretty bad too.

Liberty wouldn't have covered this number in their wins vs the New Mexico schools, but they are 8 pt favs on the road here?
 
UConn@ UMass: I'll have UMass in my plays. Home teams in this situation where both teams have 1 or fewer wins, home team greater rest, both teams coming off losing seasons, and between weeks 6-12, are 7-2 SU. UMass already showed it can be the better of bad teams at home when they beat Akron.

umass-uconn.jpg
 
booksbestfriend said:
Col St will be without starting QB & 1st RB I believe.
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Kinsey being out is a big deal as he's one of their best. But if the QB who is out is Hill, he's been out for several games. O'Brien is pretty decent and the receivers are still good. Now, if O'Brien is out, that is a big deal.
 
JROCK1966 said:
My trends all say Fresno & Liberty are the ML plays so I can't help you out with those @s--k
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Yeah....the only way Rutgers can do it is 1) hope their D can keep the score down and 2) have to hope they can run on Liberty. Rutgers O has been so bad and Buckshot on Liberty's O atleast gives them the experience and compentency to read a D and make some plays. Agree that Liberty should be the favorite, definitely, but I also have a feeling that at the end of the game if Rutgers beat them I wouldn't be surprised.
 
One last option....does UTEP have a chance at home vs. La. Tech? I got some really strange trends from that game that indicate it may be a public bloodbath for La. Tech backers. UTEP did play them to within one score in last year's game.
 
My plays are bunched up in the early games. I'll see how these go. Might add another with Rice Ky & UMass if it looks like I'm striking out in Manhatten and Columbus.....two are 5, 6, & 7-teamer RRs and two are 3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs. BOLTA!!

parlay16.jpgparlay17.jpgparlay18.jpgparlay15.jpg
 
Kansas State 10 to win 118
Rutgers 10 to win 24
Oklahoma State 50 to win 156
Maryland 10 to win 53
Tulsa 50 to win 148
Colorado State 50 to win 231

I like some of the smaller dogs too like Mich St, Tulane, Duke, but instead of netting an extra $15-20 on a $50 ML play; unless I really want to invest alot on the game, I'd rather just put more on the ATS for those smaller dogs, buying insurance I guess you could say rather than going all or nothing.
 
s--k said:
Kansas State 10 to win 118
Rutgers 10 to win 24
Oklahoma State 50 to win 156
Maryland 10 to win 53
Tulsa 50 to win 148
Colorado State 50 to win 231

I like some of the smaller dogs too like Mich St, Tulane, Duke, but instead of netting an extra $15-20 on a $50 ML play; unless I really want to invest alot on the game, I'd rather just put more on the ATS for those smaller dogs, buying insurance I guess you could say rather than going all or nothing.
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LFG
 
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