Week 9 ML Dogs

I was saying last week this was freakin flying by. Only bright side I guess is college hoops coming!

Just initial thoughts, after these I gotta go back them up w numbers, lol.

I’m really questioning if wrong team favored in Louisville? I have to look at this one little harder but I like what I watch from ville more than uva, although I (along w everyone) thought much higher of uva coming into the year. Can’t help but wonder if that why they favs?

Been on Pitt bandwagon quite a bit but this feels like a game I could see the mistakes they make rearing there ugly head. Hard to trust canes but off that loss you would think get a focused effort. I have to decide if mia offense can deal w Pitt front 7 who I really like??

Would anyone be shocked if NW beat Iowa 6-3? Lol

Wku been really impressive lately, I have to look closer at We are cause haven’t seen much of them.

Patting my back for Baylor last week in thinking that line was wrong. But if okie lite closes at -5 vs a Baylor team I really like should they really be getting double digits at isu? Note to self: Gotta look at isu run d

This sparty game feels all kind of a spot psu gets clipped/sparty rises up and actually plays a good game somehow. Prob staying away tho cause not sure I can trust them.

I get scary has looked good but Vols seem to be a improving team to me as well.

Doubt I’ll play Tulsa money line but they have been a tough out for all the good teams in this conf. Had smu dead to rights and they played very tough at cincy last week. This 1st of the good ones they catching at home isn’t it? Those 10.5 look very tempting.

If mizzou didn’t go and lose last week. I missed that potential upset while eying this one, lol.

That seems like about it until diving into numbers.
 
Not only do the teams I post here not win, they don't cover. SJSU last week.

FWIW New Mexico suspended QB Sherrion Jones indefinitely and won't play this week vs Hawaii. Actually don't think it hurts them much. Kid has been awful.
 
Several weeks ago I posted a trend in my Ky/Fl write up that Stoops was 7-0 ATS since 2016 against ranked opponents. Ky lost. Last week I posted an awesome looking 13-1 SU trend that backed South Carolina but they lost. I also posted an 7-0 SU trend that backed Cal. OSU winning was the bright spot of my weekend. This week we have Stoops and his 0-7 SU record in games after playing Georgia. Therefore, stands to anti-reason that since Ky has no shot going into this game vs. Missouri, Wildcats will win.

:tiphat:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Several weeks ago I posted a trend in my Ky/Fl write up that Stoops was 7-0 ATS since 2016 against ranked opponents. Ky lost. Last week I posted an awesome looking 13-1 SU trend that backed South Carolina but they lost. I also posted an 7-0 SU trend that backed Cal. OSU winning was the bright spot of my weekend. This week we have Stoops and his 0-7 SU record in games after playing Georgia. Therefore, stands to anti-reason that since Ky has no shot going into this game vs. Missouri, Wildcats will win.

:tiphat:
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Nah, that would only happen if I was on Missouri like I was last week when they lost SU to Vandy haha
 
Really looking forward to that game. Actually,,,, looking forward to a lot of games this week ... great week of football
 
Here are some potential ones to consider and as usual I am throwing out the games lined under 4 from my musings.

NW - iowa continues to underachieve offensively and NW pretty tough on defense. Game is totaled at 37 so points are at a premium which means one big play here or there and your ten point dog has a chance to win late. NW 1-5 though ... but conceivably could still win enough vs their schedule to go bowling. Certainly would need this to sniff it. I dunno .. maybe quit time for them too.

Miami - All Pitt has to do is play as bad as they did against Duke or Cuse and they would rate to lose this game. Again a low scoring game where the key turnover might come into play or a Coach Nar bad decision might.

MSU - Penn State overrated and a huge spot difference between the two teams. Very tough for PSU here and it would actually be impressive if they went in there and won this one.

Oklahoma State - I don't particularly like it but there is likely value in it. Played a close game last year and teams are similar in talent as last year. Gundy hasn't lost three in a row since 2015 and that was to the #10, #3 and #12 ranked teams in the nation at the time they played them. Problem here is that the conference would probably love ISU undefeated going into the OU game on the 9th of November. I don't like it but had to say.

Texas State - oh my. But there is a TON of evidence that the Arkansas State defense is terrible and Texas State off a bye. Ark State really needs the win though.
 
M.W. said:
And Utah State and Cal. Lines appear to be way off.
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Cal line huge but I don't think Modster is playing. Their 3rd string QB looked like a deer in headlights and you saw what Utah's defense just did to Daniels. I'm not sure Cal can score unless they have a short field or defensive TD.
 
RetroVK said:
Here are some potential ones to consider and as usual I am throwing out the games lined under 4 from my musings.

NW - iowa continues to underachieve offensively and NW pretty tough on defense. Game is totaled at 37 so points are at a premium which means one big play here or there and your ten point dog has a chance to win late. NW 1-5 though ... but conceivably could still win enough vs their schedule to go bowling. Certainly would need this to sniff it. I dunno .. maybe quit time for them too.

Miami - All Pitt has to do is play as bad as they did against Duke or Cuse and they would rate to lose this game. Again a low scoring game where the key turnover might come into play or a Coach Nar bad decision might.

MSU - Penn State overrated and a huge spot difference between the two teams. Very tough for PSU here and it would actually be impressive if they went in there and won this one.

Oklahoma State - I don't particularly like it but there is likely value in it. Played a close game last year and teams are similar in talent as last year. Gundy hasn't lost three in a row since 2015 and that was to the #10, #3 and #12 ranked teams in the nation at the time they played them. Problem here is that the conference would probably love ISU undefeated going into the OU game on the 9th of November. I don't like it but had to say.

Texas State - oh my. But there is a TON of evidence that the Arkansas State defense is terrible and Texas State off a bye. Ark State really needs the win though.
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Yes

Yes

Yes

No idea

There is something about this game I have to dig up but I believe it supports this play quite well.
 
I will throw in the Terps if I failed to mention them. There is a lot that lines up well there for them to pull off a shocker but the BIG probably wants an undefeated Minnesota facing an undefeated PSU in two weeks (GAMEDAY?!?!?!). So there is that.
 
One more from the weeds .. but it is unclear how good or bad the Nevada run D is but if they are half decent against the run, they have a shot against Wyoming.
 
The Georgia loss two Sats ago and the Wisky loss this past Sat really got me trying to think a bit outside the box these past few days. What about "The Law of Averages?" I honestly don't really know much about it but I think it goes basically like this...it's only a matter of time before an undefeated team loses and/or a winless team gets win.

SMU@Houston: First off, what undefeated team is most likely to go down this weekend? I think the most likely candidate is SMU. They had a losing record last season. Houston has won 7 out of the past 10 meetings albeit SMU won 2 of the past 3. But SMU has not won @Houston in the past 5 tries. Their 3 wins all came at home so there is definitely some psychological hump this team has to get over before a win will take place Thursday night. They were very impressive Saturday night so stock is high and the only way to go is down. I've got my trends below in pic 1 that list comparisons of previous team's season win/loss record, undefeated current record for away team, and previous week's results. It shows home teams in this situation have gone 7-1 SU in SDQL dbase history and is active on Houston.

smuhou.jpg

Southern Miss @ Rice: Secondly, what winless team is most likely to win a game this weekend? I think the most likely candidate may be Rice. In their home game vs. USM 2 years ago, they lost by 9 pts and that USM team won 8 games and was bowl-bound. This team may very well be bowl bound to as they have played a somewhat tough schedule. But this line seems to be a bit short seeing as USM was competitive at La Tech and they already have a win on the road at Troy. Why is this line not 2 TDs or better over a winless, seemingly hapless Rice squad? I've got my trends below in pic 2 that list comparisons of previous team's season win/loss record, winless current record for home team, and previous week's results. It shows home teams in this situation have gone 6-1 SU in SDQL dbase history and is active on Rice.

ricesmiss.jpg

:yesfistpump:
 
UCF @ Temple: I've got my trends below in pic 2 that list comparisons of previous team's season win/loss record, revenge factor, and previous week's results. It shows home teams in this situation have gone 2-7 SU in SDQL dbase history and is active on Temple. That's not really all that impressive though is it? Take a look at the two wins (highlighted in green below). UNLV and Tulsa were the 2 winners and they sandwich the 10.5pt line for Temple. The totals are very similar as well. Very interesting.....

temple-ucf.jpg
 
Two Utes said:
Cal line huge but I don't think Modster is playing. Their 3rd string QB looked like a deer in headlights and you saw what Utah's defense just did to Daniels. I'm not sure Cal can score unless they have a short field or defensive TD.
Click to expand...

Do they have to score to cover this? That what I kept thinking when I looked. What can’t happen is cal offense getting scored on by utes d, that would be way I see them not covering.
 
JROCK1966 said:
UCF @ Temple: I've got my trends below in pic 2 that list comparisons of previous team's season win/loss record, revenge factor, and previous week's results. It shows home teams in this situation have gone 2-7 SU in SDQL dbase history and is active on Temple. That's not really all that impressive though is it? Take a look at the two wins (highlighted in green below). UNLV and Tulsa were the 2 winners and they sandwich the 10.5pt line for Temple. The totals are very similar as well. Very interesting.....

View attachment 43771
Click to expand...

what are the trends in laymens terms for these games ? having trouble reading the database equations

I will say Houston , surprisingly , has actually performed well considering they are redshirting everyone. After Oklahoma I was convinced they suck but they stepped up in each of their big games since. wazzou , tulane, and cincy (close game). 3 teams that could compete with smu no ?

any ACC dog has ML value. I think this is the hardest conference to cap. Most volatile and the least separation between teams not named clemson.

real longshot but i watched unlv for first time last week and the new qb can throw the ball well. They played fresno nearly even outside of turnovers
 
EL CAPO said:
what are the trends in laymens terms for these games ? having trouble reading the database equations

I will say Houston , surprisingly , has actually performed well considering they are redshirting everyone. After Oklahoma I was convinced they suck but they stepped up in each of their big games since. wazzou , tulane, and cincy (close game). 3 teams that could compete with smu no ?

any ACC dog has ML value. I think this is the hardest conference to cap. Most volatile and the least separation between teams not named clemson.

real longshot but i watched unlv for first time last week and the new qb can throw the ball well. They played fresno nearly even outside of turnovers
Click to expand...
ive been comparing previous seasons of teams, revenge factor, and previous weeks results.
 
EL CAPO said:
what are the trends in laymens terms for these games ? having trouble reading the database equations

I will say Houston , surprisingly , has actually performed well considering they are redshirting everyone. After Oklahoma I was convinced they suck but they stepped up in each of their big games since. wazzou , tulane, and cincy (close game). 3 teams that could compete with smu no ?

any ACC dog has ML value. I think this is the hardest conference to cap. Most volatile and the least separation between teams not named clemson.

real longshot but i watched unlv for first time last week and the new qb can throw the ball well. They played fresno nearly even outside of turnovers
Click to expand...
Three good games in a row feom unlv. On the coaches show he said he liked how they played vs fresno
 
I'm talking a flier on Houston tonight.
Montez is playing for CU, right? May take CU in a cold, night home game vs USC.
 
2daBank said:
Doubt I’ll play Tulsa money line but they have been a tough out for all the good teams in this conf. Had smu dead to rights and they played very tough at cincy last week. This 1st of the good ones they catching at home isn’t it? Those 10.5 look very tempting.
Click to expand...

Kinda like Tulsa myself. I had nothing on last week's Tulsa-Cincy game (other than my RSW UT Ov), but it was a really important game I think for UT because I was afraid that they would be spiraling down the drain after the SMU game, with the Navy game kinda pointing things that direction.

Last week tells me that nightmares of SMU isn't still effecting their season. They are supposed to be able to play teams tough and be solid on D - that is who they should be, so seeing them play that way last week meant something to me.

They outgained Cincy 372-319 and held bearcats to their second lowest O yardage of the year....but 5 turnovers (-3 margin) ! UC only converted those TOs, 3 of which were in TU territory to 10 pts. Pretty good sudden change D.

Tulsa's D is pretty good....they are the same group that held SMU without an offensive TD for 3 quarters - so pretty good.

At 2-5 and only three home games left, have to think Tulsa really needs this one. We just need Betty White to show up instead of Brady White.
 
CPA-hole said:
Not only do the teams I post here not win, they don't cover. SJSU last week.
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That happens to me alot too and it kinda embarrasses me, but just keep getting out there and picking the upsets. Enjoy the process of finding the upsets, don't focus on the results. Wins and losses are in rearview mirror, this week's game are up ahead.
 
M.W. said:
Duke, obviously. Look how they tanked last week with UNC on deck.
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That is might be the only explainable reason for last week's results. What else could it be? Sometimes Team A just hits everything on the head of the nail and Team B is just out of sorts all game. Duke hasn't been a bad team this year. They've had some bad moments, but outside of the Alabama game, they haven't been noncompetitive like that.

Didn't see much of that game, but check UVA won 48-14 yet only outgained Duke 307-250! How? 5 Turnovers (-3 margin). UVA had 20pts, 2 TDs and 2 FGs come off a total of just 74 yards of O and also ran a KO ret back.

Maybe Duke had their eyes on this week's game. Might be hard for UNC to get their mind's off last week's game in Blacksburg.

Note in Phil Steele's book says Duke as won 9 of last 12 in second of B2B road games.
 
RetroVK said:
Oklahoma State - I don't particularly like it but there is likely value in it. Played a close game last year and teams are similar in talent as last year. Gundy hasn't lost three in a row since 2015 and that was to the #10, #3 and #12 ranked teams in the nation at the time they played them. Problem here is that the conference would probably love ISU undefeated going into the OU game on the 9th of November. I don't like it but had to say.
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I like it. Definitely value here. Ok St led 27-24 early 4th qrt last week. Lost 45-27 (legit BU drive, then 20y fum ret D TD and 78y TD run in final minutes to pad margin)(OSU INT from B07 and SOD at B27).

Iowa State lost to Baylor too, they just weren't in the game early and came back. So just an opposite kind of way to lose, but both lost.

This has been a historically close series, which maybe isn't good for Ok St since ISU hasn't been that good some of those years. Last 4 years games been decided by 6, 7, 7, 4 points. Only 1 upset (ISU '18), but dog is 3-1 ATS in those last 4 with the only non-dog-cover by 1/2 pt.
 
RetroVK said:
I will throw in the Terps if I failed to mention them. There is a lot that lines up well there for them to pull off a shocker but the BIG probably wants an undefeated Minnesota facing an undefeated PSU in two weeks (GAMEDAY?!?!?!). So there is that.
Click to expand...

I kinda like Maryland, just hate the Locksley vs Fleck mismatch.
 
Last edited:
RetroVK said:
One more from the weeds .. but it is unclear how good or bad the Nevada run D is but if they are half decent against the run, they have a shot against Wyoming.
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Unfortunately I watched all the UNR - USU game last week.

Nevada really didn't play bad and Utah State continued to not look good (especially first 1.5 quarters) and win ugly. USU won by 26 but outgained Pack by less than 100 yards (174 of USU's yards on final 3 possessions of game and 14 pts). Nevada was ineffective I should say, but they didn't appear to be substantially worse than Utah St. Neither team played well.

At this point, I am more concerned about Nevada's O vs WYO D than I am the Nevada D vs WYO O. I'm seeing 22 mph winds at noon Saturday in Laramie.
 
s--k said:
I like it. Definitely value here. Ok St led 27-24 early 4th qrt last week. Lost 45-27 (legit BU drive, then 20y fum ret D TD and 78y TD run in final minutes to pad margin)(OSU INT from B07 and SOD at B27).

Iowa State lost to Baylor too, they just weren't in the game early and came back. So just an opposite kind of way to lose, but both lost.

This has been a historically close series, which maybe isn't good for Ok St since ISU hasn't been that good some of those years. Last 4 years games been decided by 6, 7, 7, 4 points. Only 1 upset (ISU '18), but dog is 3-1 ATS in those last 4 with the only non-dog-cover by 1/2 pt.
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My initial reaction was def okie lite but more I looked less I liked. Isu can slow down the run then the same problem presents itself as against Baylor, that cowboys qb a freaking turnover machine it seems to me. You know isu gonna score and score some more, they slow down cowboys run game and I just worry a few turnovers and it snowballs. I’m not gonna lay it but I went from think there might be value in line for okie lite to thinking that 10.5 might be justified.
 
s--k said:
Unfortunately I watched all the UNR - USU game last week.

Nevada really didn't play bad and Utah State continued to not look good (especially first 1.5 quarters) and win ugly. USU won by 26 but outgained Pack by less than 100 yards (174 of USU's yards on final 3 possessions of game and 14 pts). Nevada was ineffective I should say, but they didn't appear to be substantially worse than Utah St. Neither team played well.

At this point, I am more concerned about Nevada's O vs WYO D than I am the Nevada D vs WYO O. I'm seeing 22 mph winds at noon Saturday in Laramie.
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Well, resident dumbass Malik Henry was kicked off the team. So, you don’t have to worry about his antics.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Well, resident dumbass Malik Henry was kicked off the team. So, you don’t have to worry about his antics.
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Thanks I've been out of the loop all week so that was news to me.

After having seen him last week I would feel better without him. So this is good for Nevada so long as the other QBs don't feel too slighted about how his insertion into the lineup went down.
 
Henry may've has the talent (at one time) but sometimes it's better to go with the guys who want to be there and are actively investing in the program. I think HEnry didn't have anywhere else that wanted him.
 
Houston did have a shot last night, but I can't remember the last time I saw a team that coulda and maybe shoulda won a game by 3 scores late 4th quarter be in position to lose it on a last play.
 
Something weird is gonna happen with this weather tomorrow.

Now, which one? Or one(s)?

Sparty with a mucked up field, yup. That is a Dantonio special. I already liked them but this feels even more right.

More later..
 
2daBank said:
Looks like it gonna be rainy in Pitt. Opinion on Who that hurt/help?
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With Whipple as OC Pitt has transitioned to more of an open O now with 20 more pass attempts per game so far than they averaged last year.
 
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