Week 9 ML Dogs

wvuscott said:
As a WVU homer, I would have been much more worried about this if we didn't have a bye after that "shit the bed" game at Iowa State. If Grier limits turnovers, I don't think this one will be a problem though.
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History says the bye generally doesn't help.
 
M.W. said:
History says the bye generally doesn't help.
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I think it will in this instance because it follows that awful performance. Not necessarily on rest or preparation, but on the attitudes of the team. One concern I do have is that we lost another linebacker for the season during the bye and our depth there was already stretched from injuries. The defense has arguably been the reason we've won more than the offense but a unit can only sustain so many injuries.
 
wvuscott said:
I think it will in this instance because it follows that awful performance. Not necessarily on rest or preparation, but on the attitudes of the team. One concern I do have is that we lost another linebacker for the season during the bye and our depth there was already stretched from injuries. The defense has arguably been the reason we've won more than the offense but a unit can only sustain so many injuries.
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Everybody says that ("attitide of the team"), but 95% of the time the team in WVU's (or UGA's) position can't bounce back and get the money.
 
M.W. said:
Everybody says that ("attitide of the team"), but 95% of the time the team in WVU's (or UGA's) position can't bounce back and get the money.
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So you don't think attitude of the team matters? For example, you don't think last week Penn State (who probably should have lost that game) was somewhat demoralized after basically losing their chances at the main goals of the season last week? I'm thinking in a bunch of 18-22 year old's, it matter quite a bit. Who knows, I've been a fan of sports and betting on it long enough to know that anything can happen. Baylor may very well cover that 14 easily, I'm just giving my 2 cents on the one time I follow religiously that I don't think it's a great spot to take the ML against them. But again, I've been wrong before and will be wrong plenty more in the future.
 
wvuscott said:
So you don't think attitude of the team matters? For example, you don't think last week Penn State (who probably should have lost that game) was somewhat demoralized after basically losing their chances at the main goals of the season last week? I'm thinking in a bunch of 18-22 year old's, it matter quite a bit. Who knows, I've been a fan of sports and betting on it long enough to know that anything can happen. Baylor may very well cover that 14 easily, I'm just giving my 2 cents on the one time I follow religiously that I don't think it's a great spot to take the ML against them. But again, I've been wrong before and will be wrong plenty more in the future.
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The attitude of the team matters, but you're not qualified to judge it unless unless you've been around at least a half dozen other teams in the same situation. The numbers say that 75% of the time a team that loses like WVU doesn't cover next time out, and the numbers are worse after a bye.
 
Last week after a SU win by ODU, an ATS & SU loss by USC, and since the beginning of 2017, road dogs of lines less than 10pts, worse total defense, and both fav & dog have negative turnover margins are currently 20-14 SU and 27-7 ATS. This week we do have several hits coming up. It is active on Central Michigan, Wake Forest, Tennessee, UNLV, Lamar, and Mercer this Saturday. BOL in what you decide Gents!

trend4.jpgtrend3.jpg
 
I have 6 very small ML dog plays this week and when I say very small, I mean very small. Just doing these more for fun and analysis testing than anything, as I am curious to see if my reads are on point or not this week.

Southern Miss VS Charlotte
Charlotte+250

North Carolina VS Virginia
Carolina+290

Georgia VS Florida
Florida+225

Kentucky VS Missouri
Kentucky+235

Tennessee VS South Carolina
Tennessee+255

South Florida VS Houston
Florida+240
 
I don't know if it the limited time I have had to look at the games this week, but I just hate this week for trying to find upsets. Seems like half the games are about a FG line. If you know me, you know I like the bigger ones. The only one that gets me a little excited is UTEP +506.

You take a look at this UTEP team, they have played 4 straight competitive games and that isn't counting the game vs Tenn which was a 4 score game, but played alot closer than most would've guessed. Last week they held LaTech 86y below their average. They held North Texas 40y and 10pts below their avg. Miners outgained UTSA by a little and outgained NMexSt by a lot.

Last week they started 2nd string Metz (vet with starting exp) because #1 Locksley was out. Metz got concussed in the 2nd H (out this week) and with their 3rd string QB they had chances at the EZ at the end of the game and only lost by 7. Locksley was back taking 1st team reps Monday and is said to be 100%.

This team is improving a bunch, they just haven't broken through to get the outcomes on the scoreboard they deserve.

UTEP has already played 2 of the top teams in the league in LT and NT and only lost by combined 58-48 score. Now they play another top CUSA team in UAB.

UAB is tough, but they are lining this game like they lined Rice (16.5). And the Rice line was too low after seeing that outcome, but Rice is a bad team and have played like it for 5 weeks now. Rice has no O and at times is a comedy of errors. UTEP is not a bad team as evidenced the last 5 weeks and stands a much much better chance to compete vs the Blazers. It's alot of pts and in my opinion alot of value on UTEP.

Gauging the emotions of UAB is difficult. They do appear to be a team on a mission to play for a CUSA title and with wins vs LT and NT they are now in the driver's seat to do just that. I have to think there could be some let down here as they travel to play an 0-7 team after a really important game last week where they came from behind to win vs North Texas. UTEP may actually find a way to win a few games yet this season as the schedule lightens up in 3 out of 4 upcoming after this week. They may just surprise with a win this week. UAB does have a WTF loss at Coastal Carolina earlier this season and also were upset at Charlotte last year, so history shows they are not beyond being upset on the road.
 
I've been a big supporter on Ball St this year which has worked out to mostly disappointing results. Normally I would think they have a shot tonight, until last week the D hadn't shown to be bad while the O was not playing as well as they should. Last week's result was surprising. Not necessarily that they lost, EM is good, but it is how they lost. EM did whatever they wanted on O. Ball has started to play some new guys on D, notably Sr DBs Miller and Walton were benched (47 career starts) where benched in favor of a Soph and Frosh based on the CM game and practice. That is a bad sign. Ball didn't get any better results by doing this as Weigers carved them up (22-28-257). If Ball were playing better I could see them competing with Ohio tonight who had the kind of D to let good offenses stick around. But it is kind of like BG last week in playing Ohio...I don't know where this Ball team's head is at and if they aren't right, Ohio can be a difficult to stop and keep up with. Playing Ball St +pts is one thing, but even I would have to say I'd be surprised if they won straight up - they just aren't doing enough things on O well right now, they have the potential to do so but have rarely executed properly this season.

I do like Baylor's chances just a little bit. I will be at the game however and hate betting against the home team when I am there. I will probably have to hide my Baylor ATS bet from the people I will be with that are all huge WVU fans. Baylor's D is often troubling so that makes this matchup a tricky one. Hard to tell if Baylor's game with Texas was a result of Horn's hangover off the OU game or if Baylor is really turning a corner. I just like how Baylor has competed most of the games this year and I think they are a tough team, maybe tougher than WVU is expecting. This time of year in terms of guessing what teams care the most and will still be playing hard down the stretch, I think Baylor is one of those teams. WVU is up and down...jumping out on TT, then letting them comeback. They dominate a one-dimensional KSt them, then throw 3 or 4 INTs vs KU to just having their O completely shut down in Ames. I have generally liked this WVU team and their potential, they are just coming up against another team I like when an underdog in Baylor. I can see this one being closer than the home fans will like.

Georgia Southern? I don't know, seems App St D might be able to slow them down. App has had their number the last 3 years straight. App St QB Thomas the last 3 weeks is completing just 48%, 139ypg. If GaSouthern can limit the run their D can keep it close perhaps. I just have a hard time seeing GaSouthern O have a ton of success with their one-dimensional running on App. If GaSouthern was a little more competent through the air I'd be more willing to buy in.

Toledo? We were talking about it heading into the Bowling Green game, this Toledo team just isn't right and they haven't been right pretty much all year and now they are taking some lumps for it. Western Michigan on the other hand has really performed well winning close games and getting some nice O production. It is rare to see Toledo be dogged like this and they are in uncharted territory so I am unsure how they respond (haven't lost back-to-back MAC games since 2013). Pretty big gut check for Rockets. One thing with WM, until last week's big win vs a bad CM team, WM had only won their prior 3 MAC games by a combined 11 pts. So while WM is playing pretty well, there is opportunity to opponents to play well vs them also. Can Toledo play well?

I have no idea whatsoever will happen between GT-VT.

I won't be back around until Friday night to try and figure some more things out for Saturday. GL everyone! Maybe we get some unexpected upsets tonight and hopefully I won't have beers thrown at me in Morgantown if Baylor somehow wins.
 
M.W. said:
UF and TAMU right off the bat.

Also Baylor.
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Also UConn (!), BC, Syr, Cal, Harvard, and Pur.

Regarding Purdue and the letdown factor, my numbers show that conference road dogs are 3-2-1 ATS after winning at home against a team that beat them by 50+ in a shutout the previous meeting. (OSU beat Purdue 56-0 in 2013, the last time they played.) The most recent occurrence of this situation was last year, when Cuse lost but covered at Miami a week (actually 8 days) after avenging a 54-0 loss to Clem. The situation has occurred wice in the Big 10 with Illinois covering at Indiana in 1986 after avenging a 59-0 loss to Iowa and with Indiana covering at Michigan in 1998 after avenging a 62-0 loss to Iowa. The presumed "celebrating" away dog lost twice in this situation in PAC matchups and pushed two years ago in a CUSA game to round out the 3-2-1 record.

Perhaps Georgia Southern, La Tech, W Mich, even Kansas.
 
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I'm kinda the oppo homer, feel much better when I read my team to lose than win...that said, ISU get a great situation this week off the bye against Tech who just rolled up KU and play Oklahoma next week. Clones are one of my bigger play ons this week, can't see how TT get up for this one
 
M.W. said:
UF and TAMU right off the bat. Also Baylor.

And UConn (!), BC, Syr, Cal, Harvard, and Pur.

Regarding Purdue and the letdown factor, my numbers show that conference road dogs are 3-2-1 ATS after winning at home against a team that beat them by 50+ in a shutout the previous meeting. (OSU beat Purdue 56-0 in 2013, the last time they played.) The most recent occurrence of this situation was last year, when Cuse lost but covered at Miami a week (actually 8 days) after avenging a 54-0 loss to Clem. The situation has occurred in the Big 10 with Illinois covering at Indiana in 1986 after avenging a 59-0 loss to Iowa and with Indiana covering at Michigan in 1998 after avenging a 62-0 loss to Iowa. The presumed "celebrating" away dog lost twice in this situation in PAC matchups and pushed two years ago in a CUSA game to round out the 3-2-1 record.

Perhaps Georgia Southern, La Tech, W Mich, even Kansas.
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Thanks, KJ -- I forgot Minnesota! I love that play.
 
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my plays this week are Iowa and Florida, don't really like much so far.
Last week was fewest straight up ML dog wins since I started tracking this 3 years ago but had a lot of close calls and lots of dogs covering the spread

Great call VK and others on the Miners last week.
I am going to tail the UTEP train again, being from El Paso I really have to close my eyes and have a shot or two of Tequila to do this lol
When UTEP wins Chicos Tacos for everybody !
 
KJ said:
Georgia Tech tonight should be live

Tomorrow, Minnesota and UCLA will make the cut, and WYO me likey a lot
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I can see UCLA and the points possibly, tread lightly on the ML. Utah is getting better on offense every week and the defense has been good from the start.
 
Two Utes said:
I can see UCLA and the points possibly, tread lightly on the ML. Utah is getting better on offense every week and the defense has been good from the start.
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I'm not in love with it, Utes are by far the best in the South imo. It's situation off USC, plain and simple. USC will always be a huge game for Utah.
 
Agreed, possible letdown but Whittingham very good at keeping his team focused. A lot of southern Cali kids on Utah that would like to stick it to UCLA as well.
 
wvuscott said:
I think it will in this instance because it follows that awful performance. Not necessarily on rest or preparation, but on the attitudes of the team. One concern I do have is that we lost another linebacker for the season during the bye and our depth there was already stretched from injuries. The defense has arguably been the reason we've won more than the offense but a unit can only sustain so many injuries.
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Thanks for the input. Congrats on the winner.
 
Imo BC is quite overrated at this moment, their D sucks. They really havent beaten anybody. Only played one superior team, Purdue. Miami can pull from LSU experience. UVA is a very good team, with strong D. Miami was good for challenge. Im on the U.
 
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Not sure if chip is playing games but from what I'm hearing Speight took reps with the ones this week. I don't think DTR can throw. I'm sure Chip will try to keep it quiet until warm-ups
 
you get cold at night in the desert. just wont be debilitating is all

I tend to think a drier, lower humidity environment would be more detrimental to canes
 
RetroVK said:
Have fun watching the mountaineers go bear hunting
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Oh yeah, they did! Baylor looked as bad as any of their ugly 2016 or 2017 losses!

5 blowouts last night and 3 upsets!

Happy to be back home after hectic week, getting settled back in.
 
Shoulda seen when I went to Memphis for the Memphis Bowl. 19 degrees. 4 layers. I got picked on
 
M.W. said:
The attitude of the team matters, but you're not qualified to judge it unless unless you've been around at least a half dozen other teams in the same situation. The numbers say that 75% of the time a team that loses like WVU doesn't cover next time out, and the numbers are worse after a bye.
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M.W. said:
Thanks for the input. Congrats on the winner.
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I think you misunderstood my point. My point was that if we didn't have the bye we might have come out and got our ass kicked because that was a deflating effort against ISU. Extra time to lick the wounds may have given them enough time to move past that deflated feeling. I was all over Indiana after PSU's second loss (similar deflated situation but without the extra time between games to find perspective and new motivation for PSU) and I likely would have bet Baylor if it were a normal week between games. As it was, I didn't bet it. I've been wrong before and will many more times, but my only reason to reply in the first place was to give any helpful insight possible into a team I follow and know really well. Hopefully I can help someone make a decision with said input.
 
Strange week for me, being on the road a bunch and away from home, trying to pick games before the kickoff Thurs and Fri and scrambling for some last night and this morning. Here is what I have today:

UConn 50 to win 70
ILL 10 to win 64
USF 50 to win 133
Cal 10 to win 36
UTEP 50 to win 237
Hawaii 10 to win 122
 
Pitt looks like a live dog today. They have had Duke’s number last few years. Not great odds, but they may need this game for bowl eligibility.
 
C-MAN said:
Pitt looks like a live dog today. They have had Duke’s number last few years. Not great odds, but they may need this game for bowl eligibility.
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Need Pitt today myself. Coaches likely selling this as a must win for ACC coastal divisional race as well. Don't think Pitt is good enough to win the division, but coaches won't tell players that. VT 3-1, Vir 3-1, Pitt 2-1 and Pitt faces them both coming up. Narduzzi was preaching winning a championship preseason, has to get this one. Duke OL is bad. believe best LB and RB banged up as well. Like you say, Pitt has won 3 straight vs them. Pitt has to have it, would be shocked if they don't come out and play hard.
 
ML Dogs for me early:

Northwestern
Michigan St

Should take UCan't but I seriously can't get past how they seem to enjoy failing
 
Crazy-azz parlay #2.....4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RRs.

parlay2week9.jpg

May the gambling Gods shine brightly on us all this wonderful Fall Saturday.

And, if they don't, I have a butter-garlic basted pork roast in the crock pot so at least I will eat well.

BOLTA!

:bbq::beerdrink::tiphat::cheers3:
 
s--k said:
Strange week for me, being on the road a bunch and away from home, trying to pick games before the kickoff Thurs and Fri and scrambling for some last night and this morning. Here is what I have today:

UConn 50 to win 70
ILL 10 to win 64
USF 50 to win 133
Cal 10 to win 36
UTEP 50 to win 237
Hawaii 10 to win 122
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Good luck on all s-k

I am on all but UConn and Hawaii with you and liking Illinois more and USF second.
Have cut my Iowa and Florida plays in half after too much touting on those upsets.
Have some parleys on the points with Iowa, Florida, Illinois, USF, UTEP

Good luck to JRock too, hope this is the week for some big wins for your RR plays
 
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