Week 9 ML Dogs

Not much time here this morning, starting to look towards Vandy too. I don't think their season is over. They are 3-4 with 5 winnable games left. The KSt/Bama/FL/UGA/Ole Miss was hard stretch for them. I think they are better than they showed in those games. SC is good, but not unbeatable.

Had hinted at Houston earlier. I think their D has a good chance to compete vs USF like few other teams have. USF schedule is definition of cupcake so far, Houston atleast been in some tough games vs some decent teams. Will come down to turnovers and hard to trust Houston in that regard, but I'm giving them a shot.

Duke I will be on as mentioned.

I've tried to find an angle for Hawaii tonight and can't. San Diego St has been a bad matchup for them last couple years. The UH D is bad and the O is off from last year. Everyone seemed to like Frost QBing UCF last week, Rolovich did the same in practice this week. SDSt is reeling. UH off bye. This would appear to be UH's best opportunity to give Aztecs a game in recent years. Probably not ML this and just take a shot with the pts.

Lost all the value for me to ML NMSt.

Still have to take something on FIU to satisfy my guilty pleasures with ugly dogs. Hopefully they don't lose by 30.

Not taking NCSt ML but will take a chance on the spread.

Might blindly take Tex St ML over CC.
 
Not sure what cold, rain helps either team in the OSU/WVU game though does it? Looks like the worst rain might be in the second half, may not be bad to start the game.
 
CHSGTMD said:
good luck s-k, how bout that line drop on SJSU from +14 to +9
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Yeah, my no like that. The lower it gets the less I like SJSt, I think they can hang, but they are bad, like the insurance. The total has really rocketed up as well. I really liked an over play that CrimsonK was on, but it is TD higher now.
 
southern guys don't like that first blast of cold air with wet and cold much worse ... anything under 50 is cold down this way lol
 
Crimson gets some great lines on those totals when released, even 30 minutes later lines are 5+ adjusted but he's really on fire with those picks
Couple weeks ago tailed him even with the adjusted lines and only lost one out of eight of his above one unit totals
 
CHSGTMD said:
Crimson gets some great lines on those totals when released, even 30 minutes later lines are 5+ adjusted but he's really on fire with those picks
Couple weeks ago tailed him even with the adjusted lines and only lost one out of eight of his above one unit totals
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Proper steam chasing has been a pretty decent practice over the years, and used to get players flagged too, when they were chasing slow moving line change books.

It is harder now because I think there are more setups than ever before.
 
vk said:
Proper steam chasing has been a pretty decent practice over the years, and used to get players flagged too, when they were chasing slow moving line change books.

It is harder now because I think there are more setups than ever before.
Click to expand...

I used to like reading that Rex thread, no idea who players were, Walters, etc, and no idea to play early lines, but liked to see what people were saying about the setups and buybacks and all that.
 
VK, who would your favorite ML dog be today if you had to take one? Nebraska?
 
Well, I tried looking into FCS but my book does not give 1st half lines for FCS. I still found some interesting plays down there and am going to pay $16 to see how I do. The following FCS dogs have at least 2 out of the 3 boxes checked. BOL fellas!!

3, 4, & 5-team RR:
  1. 10/28/2017 12:00 PM College Extra Football 310 Sacred Heart* +255 vs Duquesne
  2. 10/28/2017 12:30 PM College Extra Football 314 Brown* +600 vs Pennsylvania
  3. 10/28/2017 1:00 PM College Extra Football 326 Fordham* +230 vs Lehigh
  4. 10/28/2017 2:30 PM College Extra Football 354 Northern Colorado* +320 vs Southern Utah
  5. 10/28/2017 4:00 PM College Extra Football 391 Southeast Missouri State* +750 vs Jacksonville State
Risking $16.00 (16 parlays at $1.00) To Win $7,417.29

:haveaniceday:
 
s--k said:
Was looking into FIU a little tonight, like I said it isn't going to be for those risk adverse players. Me? I have a certain attraction to ugly dogs, can be bad for your health at times, my skin has just hardened to it.

So FIU beat Marshall 31-14 and that was a bad bad bad Marshall team, wheels just fell off an nobody cared to try and put them back on. Everyone kicked the Herd last year when they were down, now Herd enjoying kicking back (even Charlotte and ODU beat them last year, well ODU was good atleast).

FIU appears to be much improved this year, but there is a BIG difference...SOS. 2016 compared to 2017. Last year FIU faced 2 Big Ten teams and no IAA in their first 6, this year they have no Power 5 and 1 IAA team. So it sets up for the appearance of improvement on the surface, but it has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

MTSU had their 3rd best yardage output on FIU. Charlotte had by far their most yards on them (504! ran for 349!).

Their 4-2 record is tied for 6th best start through 6 games in program history, but man is it dicey! To get wins vs Charlotte they had to rally from down DD I think it was. Against Rice they had to hold a goal line stand.

I mean I like ugly dogs, but even I might have to lay off this one. I rarely say I'd be surprised if most any dog won just because in my mind I'm always trying to think of ways upsets happen. The numbers don't point to it here.

Only thing would be FIU does have alot of wind at their back from the Tulane game into the bye week. They were down a couple LBs there who will return here. And Marshall has had some WTF games.

Maybe I throw something small on the spread because I do bet bad teams alot..and sometimes they cover! But I won't be any ML on them, there is little to no case to be made here.
Click to expand...
Nice call!! Did you play them??

:shake:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Nice call!! Did you play them??

:shake:
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Just with the pts. I researched my way out of the ML. Should'a trusted the gut play. The Marshall team I thought could show up did. The FIU team I hoped would show up did. When I tried to justify it the call I couldn't. But I'll take the ats.
 
Houston D playing lights out. Both teams going for 4th down alot. Houston O not doing anything. Took out Postma and are playing King. Half the time he doesn't look like he knows what he is doing. I know the downside with Postma, he almost threw a pick-six today, but I'd feel better with him possibly generating some O.

Vandy just had their tying xpt blk'd.

Houston and Vandy both seems like it is so hard everything they are trying to do. But they a chance still.
 
s--k said:
Just with the pts. I researched my way out of the ML. Should'a trusted the gut play. The Marshall team I thought could show up did. The FIU team I hoped would show up did. When I tried to justify it the call I couldn't. But I'll take the ats.
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They have a senior QB but only checked off 1 out of 3 boxes and had a big disadvantage in turnover margin so I passed as well.....what can you do??
 
Putting money on a 3 score dog to win SU is tough, since I don't play a bunch of MLs I pick and choose the spots. I do play a ton of ats so I just about take the whole board there.
 
rough start here, Baylor giving UT 5+ short fields of 25 or less yards and W Va sloppy, not catching etc then Colorado decides to show up
So far only 2 ML dog winners outright but have 3 or 4 looking possible like FIU Iowa St Penn St USAF
Usually 10 to 12 ML dog winners per week so hope we have some more winners in late games
Still liking AZ and AZ St and will tail on Duke and adding Tx Tech who has small chance with OU defense vulnerable so 80% points, 20% on ML
 
Huge win for the Toppers they overcame a fumble on their own 15 and a pic six to comeback and cover for me. Hit 3 out of 4 so far with 3 to go!!

PS - my FCS pix sucked.

:fingerscrossed::fingerscrossed::fingerscrossed::fingerscrossed:
 
Houston came in, pretty exciting finish.

Any chance Duke may've had...even ats, just took a big hit here before HT. Duke could've punted from their own EZ with :06 left, but a Duke player reacted to VT player taunting, pushed his hand into VT's helmet, VT player flopped and ref threw a flag, stopping the clock. So instead Duke punted with :42 seconds left in the half. Hokies got a TD with :15 left. Time that never would've been left for them to do anything all because a player acted selfishly and was not disciplined. In a game where just about everything needs to go right to try and pull an upset like this, moments like that are just killers.
 
Good call with USAF... I wanted to hit that a lot and kept pulling off of it so I thought best to watch and see but they looked to be the right side the entire way through. Of the service teams I do like USAF. The coaching there is quality. They get less time on the field compared to the other service teams because of a few extra restrictions at school and they seem to be very efficient with the talent and time that they have year in and out.
 
s--k said:
WVU 50 to win 135
Houston 50 to win 156
Vandy 50 to win 105
Duke 20 to win 122
Click to expand...

This Duke game is miserable to watch, other than losing $$ that is my punishment for thinking they snap out of their O issues tonight. That TD that shouldn't have been is the difference in an ats loss. Vandy missed xpt results in push rather than win. +36 on ML :(

Arizona St 50 to win 94
 
vk said:
ML dogs feel appealing after seeing days like today where almost everything makes no sense.
Click to expand...

Expect the unexpected. That's why I like college football, you never can be sure what is going to happen. So many surprises, twists, turns and things nobody can see coming. Rarely a dull moment.
 
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