Week 9 ML Dogs

booksbestfriend said:
May want to check SOS for KY vs TN. I would imagine TN has played the tougher schedule to this point.
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I actually will be playing Da Vols and the Over.
Butch actually has a chance to save his job believe it or not. Been hearing from the inside that if he rolls off 6 in a row he stays. Its also been said that if he loses this week hes done.
 
Been out for past week so not much time to post.
Had losing week 8 for second losing week of the year.
Was way off on some reads and picks last week, hopefully better this week.

I have the following plays
Arizona St +3 and ML
Arizona +3 and ML
Cal +3 and ML
UNM +1 but now UNM favored

Looking at the following -

Baylor +9 and ML
The QB that came in against WVa was impressive in the 2nd half
Baylor has had some close games and covering spread last few weeks and looking for line to hopefully rise
Rivalry game, record and results should be more like 14 point spread so think under 10 is talking to me.

Leaning SJSU and NMSU like others have posted

UCLA + 17 and ML more based on UCLA having potential to play to either extreme but if hot could win.
Think Wash has dropped off from where I and others expected them to be and Ariz St exposed areas UCLA could attack well.

Rutgers +24 and ML more a play on the Michigan letdown after last week like Louisville and others have struggled with.
Think talent matchup concerns offset some by momentum and also Harbaugh coaching fade

Leaning USAF +12 and ML
Was really big on Colo St 1st half of season but each week they seem to be playing down a level and squeaking by especially 2nd half weakness
Don't know enough about USAF and matchups but welcome others ideas, input

Leaning UAB even though I have done well with So Miss this year and USM is my wife's alma mater too
So Miss crazy ending for a win last week vs UAB losing game in OT as favorite by 9 so not sure how to measure all but think UAB stays within 14 not sure they can win.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I actually will be playing Da Vols and the Over.
Butch actually has a chance to save his job believe it or not. Been hearing from the inside that if he rolls off 6 in a row he stays. Its also been said that if he loses this week hes done.
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Hard to see how Butch stays even if he wins out but think Tenn has good shot at ML win this week
 
CHSGTMD said:
Been out for past week so not much time to post.
Had losing week 8 for second losing week of the year.
Was way off on some reads and picks last week, hopefully better this week.

I have the following plays
Arizona St +3 and ML
Arizona +3 and ML
Cal +3 and ML
UNM +1 but now UNM favored

Looking at the following -

Baylor +9 and ML
The QB that came in against WVa was impressive in the 2nd half
Baylor has had some close games and covering spread last few weeks and looking for line to hopefully rise
Rivalry game, record and results should be more like 14 point spread so think under 10 is talking to me.

Leaning SJSU and NMSU like others have posted

UCLA + 17 and ML more based on UCLA having potential to play to either extreme but if hot could win.
Think Wash has dropped off from where I and others expected them to be and Ariz St exposed areas UCLA could attack well.

Rutgers +24 and ML more a play on the Michigan letdown after last week like Louisville and others have struggled with.
Think talent matchup concerns offset some by momentum and also Harbaugh coaching fade

Leaning USAF +12 and ML
Was really big on Colo St 1st half of season but each week they seem to be playing down a level and squeaking by especially 2nd half weakness
Don't know enough about USAF and matchups but welcome others ideas, input

Leaning UAB even though I have done well with So Miss this year and USM is my wife's alma mater too
So Miss crazy ending for a win last week vs UAB losing game in OT as favorite by 9 so not sure how to measure all but think UAB stays within 14 not sure they can win.
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Love your PAC MLs, aside UCLA. However, I can’t figure them out.

Don’t pay enough attention to the MWC to comment.

Wouldn’t ML Rutgers with my worst enemies money. I get it, it’s going out on a limb. But, you find the smallest twig to hang by. Games like Syracuse turned it to be the strongest part of the whole damn tree.

AF always has a punchers chance, as they don’t give up.

UAB, I mentioned as being a little league rivalry and So Miss has shown some signs of fading.

Baylor - I mentioned it two weeks ago somewhere on site, they are going to get someone. Hopefully sooner than later for value, as their lines will shrink barring major injury.
 
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Something to watch. USA feels like it is getting dumbed down. Dropped to pick. If it sinks, that can be a small ML (+115-120) worth stabbing in some sort of parlay with another dog ML.
 
CHSGTMD said:
Leaning USAF +12 and ML
Was really big on Colo St 1st half of season but each week they seem to be playing down a level and squeaking by especially 2nd half weakness
Don't know enough about USAF and matchups but welcome others ideas, input
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I tend to agree on AF ats. Upset wouldn't surprise.

Colorado St seems to be losing some momentum. The Utah St game should've been a bigger win, they didn't seem real interested in the second half there. And it does seem like since then they have been involved in games that shouldn't be as competitive as they were given who we think CSU is. Nevada figuring some things out and they did what they wanted on O. New Mexico is struggling, up down and inconsistent, but found a way to stay in that game, probably shouldn't have been as close as it was actually, but it was.

Read that Stephens admitted he was out of sync with receivers last week at NMex and it led to a really inefficient O in the 2nd half there.

Air Force option doesn't run fullback much, as opposed to Army who uses FB as a ton. Navy uses it less than Army, but still a good bit. AF uses it least. AF gets the ball off tackle and outside more with their faster guys. And Worthman keeps it a bunch inside and out. AF also passes it the most out of all the academies and are pretty good at it when they do it when they want rather than when the D is ready for it.

AF D is pretty bad. They will yield yards rushing or passing and are difficult to rely on. Not much reason to think CSU D will shut down AF either. Gave up 318 to NM last week just one game removed from when Lobos were held to 109.

It is a nice rivalry. Last 4 years either AF wins close, twice. Or CSU wins big, twice. Last year was an absolutely crazy game.

I could see it going that way again, back-and-forth.
 
CHSGTMD said:
Baylor +9 and ML
The QB that came in against WVa was impressive in the 2nd half
Baylor has had some close games and covering spread last few weeks and looking for line to hopefully rise
Rivalry game, record and results should be more like 14 point spread so think under 10 is talking to me.
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Baylor - I mentioned it two weeks ago somewhere on site, they are going to get someone. Hopefully sooner than later for value, as their lines will shrink barring major injury.
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I've noticed that improvement as well. Really vs KSt and Oklahoma they played pretty decent. OSU not so much. I had them last week vs WVU and was pretty fortunate to get that cover.

My concern for them this week would be, that QB is a tr Fr right? They going to start him over Smith? Not sure how I feel about him vs Texas D. It's one thing to come in off the bench in the 4th down big with nothing expected of you and the opposing D ready to go home. It's another thing to be named the starter and have to execute a gameplan against a D that is ready to go.

Now, can Texas bring A game? They are off 3 straight pretty emotional tough games. If Texas is up I think Baylor might have trouble.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Something to watch. USA feels like it is getting dumbed down. Dropped to pick. If it sinks, that can be a small ML (+115-120) worth stabbing in some sort of parlay with another dog ML.
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Have anything to offer?

I was actually think of going with Georgia St. They had won 3 straight, had their first home game in 51 days and faced a better team off a bad upset. That was a bad matchup for them. But thought here they could fare better. After this they go back-to-back road games again so figured they would really be up to try and win at home here.

Teams are probably pretty even and doesn't feel like there is an edge to be had on either team...is there?

I know SBama beat Troy, but in watching that game didn't think they looked especially competent on O or anything. Just one of those games. I didn't think much higher of SB before that game than I did after. Guess I just wasn't surprised Troy would lay an egg because they've done it before.

Open to hear any thoughts you have?
 
s--k said:
Have anything to offer?

I was actually think of going with Georgia St. They had won 3 straight, had their first home game in 51 days and faced a better team off a bad upset. That was a bad matchup for them. But thought here they could fare better. After this they go back-to-back road games again so figured they would really be up to try and win at home here.

Teams are probably pretty even and doesn't feel like there is an edge to be had on either team...is there?

I know SBama beat Troy, but in watching that game didn't think they looked especially competent on O or anything. Just one of those games. I didn't think much higher of SB before that game than I did after. Guess I just wasn't surprised Troy would lay an egg because they've done it before.

Open to hear any thoughts you have?
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I had to look back at the schedule to see what I was missing. Looked obvious upon 1st glance. I ran the wrong team. I had GA Southern vs USA, which is why I was getting USA favored. Sorry for this misfire.

Upon switching, the wrong team team was favored on release. That line should have been flipped and looks like it could get there.
 
Ok, yeah I would like SBama vs GaSouthern too. Not sure I have much conviction about it, but will probably play on Ga State small and see what happens.
 
I was thinking that Shawn Elliot at GaSt would not have a lot of success but he has done rather well with them so far.
 
Just wanted to share in case anyone was interested. This play comes from "The Parlay Picker." I started following him last year and learned about ML parlays from him. Anyway, he is at it again and tweeted this parlay. Good Luck in what you decide!!

2, 3, & 4 Team Parlays
Pending 10/28/17 8:00pm College Football 139 Georgia Tech +438* vs Clemson
Pending 10/28/17 3:30pm College Football 181 UCLA +575* vs Washington U
Pending 10/25/17 8:05pm NBA Basketball 511 Indiana Pacers +600* vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Pending 10/25/17 10:35pm NBA Basketball 519 Toronto Raptors +625* vs Golden State Warriors
 
Line at 5Dimes still holding steady at Ky -5....I figured Kelly would run for 200+ if Tenn was to beat us. Line not moving is telling me I'm wrong.

:mad:
 
It's a tough match up offensively but should be a low possession game. I don't see why Clemson does much to the GT defense either.

I also think Marshall is a difference maker that wasn't there last year at QB. They got 4 net yards from the QB position passing/rushing. That ain't happening with Marshall. And I trust Johnson to have some tricks up his sleeve for this game as far as scheming and attacking differently and this isn't exactly the same personnel that stopped the option up front either. Sure super talented but that doesn't always translate so while I would expect them to do well against the option compared to most teams, I highly doubt we see anything close to the offensive debacle of last year.

I can see this being a very short game.
 
Curious of the thoughts as I'm not remotely an AZ guy but both ASU and UA as 3 point dogs are fascinating to say the least..I'm in on UA as Falk is just a QB waiting for a sackin, ASU on the other hand at home is not ideal from a situational standpoint of course and ASU v USC are treacherous to say the least. Guess I lean under but curious as to the thoughts round here
 
Was looking into FIU a little tonight, like I said it isn't going to be for those risk adverse players. Me? I have a certain attraction to ugly dogs, can be bad for your health at times, my skin has just hardened to it.

So FIU beat Marshall 31-14 and that was a bad bad bad Marshall team, wheels just fell off an nobody cared to try and put them back on. Everyone kicked the Herd last year when they were down, now Herd enjoying kicking back (even Charlotte and ODU beat them last year, well ODU was good atleast).

FIU appears to be much improved this year, but there is a BIG difference...SOS. 2016 compared to 2017. Last year FIU faced 2 Big Ten teams and no IAA in their first 6, this year they have no Power 5 and 1 IAA team. So it sets up for the appearance of improvement on the surface, but it has to be taken with a huge grain of salt.

MTSU had their 3rd best yardage output on FIU. Charlotte had by far their most yards on them (504! ran for 349!).

Their 4-2 record is tied for 6th best start through 6 games in program history, but man is it dicey! To get wins vs Charlotte they had to rally from down DD I think it was. Against Rice they had to hold a goal line stand.

I mean I like ugly dogs, but even I might have to lay off this one. I rarely say I'd be surprised if most any dog won just because in my mind I'm always trying to think of ways upsets happen. The numbers don't point to it here.

Only thing would be FIU does have alot of wind at their back from the Tulane game into the bye week. They were down a couple LBs there who will return here. And Marshall has had some WTF games.

Maybe I throw something small on the spread because I do bet bad teams alot..and sometimes they cover! But I won't be any ML on them, there is little to no case to be made here.
 
Curious of the thoughts as I'm not remotely an AZ guy but both ASU and UA as 3 point dogs are fascinating to say the least..I'm in on UA as Falk is just a QB waiting for a sackin, ASU on the other hand at home is not ideal from a situational standpoint of course and ASU v USC are treacherous to say the least. Guess I lean under but curious as to the thoughts round here
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Think I like AzSt. Could see the under. Devil D playing well and they have really committed to the running game. Already have 5 games this year with 40+ att, last year they had 5 all year.

I don't know why, but they are using WR Harry at Sparky now. Last year they used Balage, he could still do it. Harry is a great athlete too, maybe they think he is quicker or something? I kind of liked Balage doing it.

LB/DE Alani Latu is supposed to be back this week. He missed the Utah, but had a good game vs Washington.

They have held their last 3 opponents under 200y passing, 3 in a row. They only did that 3 times in 2015 and 2016 combined!

The D is 2nd nationally in sacks per game and TFL per game even though they are less blitz happy this year.

Sun Devil O has only turned it over 6x (two tipped ball INTs), that ranks 9th nationally. Last year they ranked 82nd and had 21 TOs!

They are taking longer to score and have better TOP this year. Not sure if it is a bad thing or not, how they used to operate was big plays, score quick, go fast. At times I wonder if they aren't as good on O, might just be them running it more. They still allow alot of pressure on Manny, but he's been good under pressure for the most part.

There is really alot to like about how AzSt is playing right now, they've rounded into a pretty decent team here.

I am watching a replay of the AzSt-Utah game now. Huntley coming back for Utah was the best thing that happened to AzSt. There was rust, there was lack of chemistry with receivers. Utah D did what they are supposed to. Held AzSt to a 51y FG into the wind on Devil's first series. After a pass bounced off RB and Devil got INT and short field. Utah O, just couldn't do much or keep anything going. Huntley just running around looking without purpose. Utah just has no identity at the moment, don't know who they are, what they are good at how they want to do things. AzSt benefited from that.

Really, Washington had been struggling coming into the AzSt game. It was part of our analysis for taking AzSt against UW. Their road struggles, some passing game struggles, VC mentioned he saw some run blocking struggles. Then Utah goes back to Huntley for the first time in a month and that didn't help Utes at all, atleast not in that game. Now here comes USC, limping along, not playing at a very high level. Could play right into AzSt again. Not their fault they are facing some flawed opponents, I'm sure they don't mind.
 
Appreciate it...got a few on the brain and a couple I'm on, numbers have moved so posting current

Eastern Michigan +230
WVU +240
Maryland +160 (on it)
NC State +225 (on it)
ISU +200 (deflecting this as I'm a fan but figure they could win this, will not bet it)
Oregon +150 (reasons s--k listed on Utes identity above, just not sure UO has one really, but at Autzen it must be considered, more a bet against Utah)
UAB +410 (small on it)
New Mexico won't qualify as they're -2 now but opened +3.5, that swing is worth noting
Don't have ML lines on Arizona and ASU but will likely be on both there, neither should be dogs imo and Arizona should tee off on Falk
 
I stab on Eastern Mich +230 tonight
I'll look at Jorga St after I get settled in. I like being on the LEFT coast. All these games are on early love it.
Wrong thread but I'm playing the Fins ML tonight.
May do a round robin with Dolphins, East Mich & Georgia St tonight.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I stab on Eastern Mich +230 tonight
I'll look at Jorga St after I get settled in. I like being on the LEFT coast. All these games are on early love it.
Wrong thread but I'm playing the Fins ML tonight.
May do a round robin with Dolphins, East Mich & Georgia St tonight.
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Sounds good. I like all 3!

You're out west? I visit the mountain time zone frequently. I like it on weekends and for later games, but a weeknight 7 eastern kick going at 5 mountain kind of throws things off.
 
ProV1Colt said:
In Matt Moore I trust. ..... Tonight
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I think the distribution will be far greater than what we have seen. Landry shouldn’t get every look. I propped him just in case, but was coming in thinking of an under on him. Value was too great to ignore. Got a lot of pos vig on him.
 
Eastern Michigan 50 to win 115
Oregon State 10 to win 98

channeling upsets of Corvallis past...2014 4-5 Beavers beat #7 Arizona St, 2012 eventual 3-9 Beavers beats #8 Wisconsin, on a Thursday night 2008 1-2 Beavs beat #1 USC as 26 pt underdogs, 2006 4-3 Beavs beat #3 USC!
 
Wow. Eastern Michigan wow. I mean I feel bad for myself losing their ML, but I can't possibly imagine the pain in that locker room right now. To be up by 14 halfway through the 4th, having lost 5 straight games on the final play, 5 games by combined 20 pts. Then tonight to have that lead, to miss 3 FGs including the would-be game winner with no time left and lose in OT. Those kids, that team, man...I don't think I've seen anything like it. Feel horrible for them.
 
Houston - USF Stat AAC ranking comparison

Total D: USF 1st – 308.1 / Houston 5th – 417

Total O: USF 3rd – 494 / Houston 7th – 443

Scoring D: USF 2nd – 18.7 / Houston 3rd – 24

Scoring O: USF 3rd – 41.6 / Houston 8th – 27.3

Rushing D: USF 1st – 94.4 / Houston 4th – 155.4

Rushing O: USF 2nd – 305 / Houston 7th - 173

Passing O yards: Houston 6th – 270.4 / USF 9th – 188.7

Passing D yards: USF 3rd – 213.7 / Houston 8th – 261.6

Pass YPCompletion O: USF 6th – 13.62 / Houston 12th – 9.96

Pass Eff O: Houston 6th – 135.08 /USF 7th – 130.58

Pass Eff D: USF 1st – 95.64 / Houston 3rd – 114.19

Completion % O: Houston 2nd 71% / USF 10th 52%

3rd down O: Houston 3rd 48% / USF 6th 43%

3rd down D: USF 1st 33% / Houston 2nd 36%

RZ D: Houston 1st – 77% / USF 9th – 85%

RZ O: Houston 4th – 87% / USF 6th – 83%

First Downs All'd: USF 2nd – 118 / Houston – 5th 152

First Downs Gained: USF 1st – 185 / Houston 6th – 165

D TDs: USF 2nd 2 / Houston NA

D Sacks per game: USF 3rd – 2.71 / Houston 5th – 1.71

Fewest Sacks All’d per game: Houston 3rd – 1.14 / USF 5th – 1.43

D TFL per game: USF 1st – 8.3 / Houston 7th – 5.4

Fewest TFL All’d per game: Houston 8th – 5.57 / USF 10th – 6.57

Fewest Penalties: Houston 4th – 48 / USF 12th – 68

Fewest Penalties per game: Houston 5th – 6.86 / USF 12th – 9.71

Fewest Penalty Yards: Houston 4th – 434 / USF 12th – 635

Fewest Penalty Yards per game: Houston 5th – 62 / USF – 91

Fewest Fumbles Lost: USF 4th – 3 / Houston 10th – 6

Fumbles Recovered: Houston 8th – 4 / USF 11th – 3

Fewest INTs Thrown: USF 1st – 3 / Houston 12th – 10

Most D INTs: USF 1st – 16 / Houston 3rd – 10

Turnovers Gained: USF 2nd – 19 / Houston 5th – 14

Fewest Turnovers Lost: USF 3rd – 6 / Houston 12th - 16

Turnover Margin: USF 1st - +1.86 / Houston 7th – (-.29)

KO Ret D: USF 7th – 19.93 / Houston 9th – 22.04

KO Ret O: Houston 2nd – 24.4 / USF 12th – 14.73

Net Punting: Houston 5th – 37.83 / USF 8th – 37

Punt Ret D: Houston 4th – 5.75 / USF 10th – 8.5

Punt Ret O: USF 2nd – 10.20 / Houston 9th – 3.13

Blk’d Kicks: USF 1st 3 / Houston t-4th 1

Blk’d Kicks Alld’: Houston t-1st 0 / USF 12th 6

Blk’d Punts All’d: Houston 1st 0 / USF 11th 2

TOP: USF 3rd – 31:23 / Houston 4th – 30:56
 
Wonder what can be taken away from Houston's game vs Louisville and Lamar Jackson last year?

From pro football focus

Houston front-seven dominates Louisville offense

The Cougars defensive line, led by true freshman Ed Oliver, came to play on Thursday night. The defense sacked Heisman hopeful Lamar Jackson 10 times and also forced an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone that resulted in a safety. Despite exiting the game late in the third quarter with an injury, Oliver had the best game of his young collegiate career, as he batted down three passes, recorded two sacks and a quarterback hurry, and also forced a fumble. In addition, linebacker Steven Taylor made a team-high 10 defensive stops and also recorded seven total pressures, including three sacks.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/ne...ouston-grades-cougars-shut-down-lamar-jackson
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Taylor is gone, but 3 of the 5 highest graded D players from the game are still here (Oliver, Thurman and Davis).

I'm thinking about that Houston - Louisville 2016 game because of Quinton Flowers and how hard he can be to contain.

Houston's O struggled most of the game, but the D dominated!

New D coaching staff, but surely they could apply some things that worked in that game last year to this one? Any thoughts?
 
tough losses last night on the ML for sure s-k
Here are my final plays for Saturday, crossing off a few like UCLA and Rutgers but still playing points
As usual 80% on points and 20% on ML

Arizona / Arizona St / Cal / West Va / Penn St / Baylor / SJSU / USAF
Parlay on 1st three and small parlay on all 8
 
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Sounds good CHSGTMD. I will be on some of those as well, either ats or ml. I'm still mulling things over. Hope you have a great day!
 
Duke...

They started 4-0, the NW win was a beauty, but the wins vs Baylor and UNC were much less pretty, sloppy at worst. Since they are on a 4 games slide with this trip to VT and bye on deck.

The O has been inconsistent, but the D has been pretty solid, until Pitt. While Pitt only scored 24pts, it is how they got those pts...336 rushing yards allowed and Pitt busted some big runs through some huge holes. Pitt had 79 and 92y TD runs leading to a 5.9 ypc avg. Take those two runs away and Pitt ran for 165 on 55 carries = 3.0ypc. Much better. But the big runs did happen and Duke defenders didn't fit well and were exposed. Historically Duke has been respectable vs the run. The last two years for example, VT has avg under 4 ypc rush on them. And Hokies are avg under 4 ypc in their 3 ACC games so far this year, so they wouldn't look the part to do alot of damage there. Duke held Miami to 3.97 ypc, the Canes second worst of the year and vs Virginia all'd 3.37 - Cavs came in avg 4.85 their prior 2 games. So while Duke has things to fix, I'm going to say the run D from last week is the outlier and VT is not a great running team anyhow.

Facing VT, I'm less concerned about the Duke D. Here are the ACC D Stat rankings for the two, they are pretty similar and Duke is solid in most areas:

Total D - VT 2nd, Duke 4th
Scoring D - VT 1st, Duke 5th
3rd down conversion D - VT 1st, Duke 4th
4th down conversion D - VT 9th, Duke 1st
D TDs - VT 4th, Duke 1st
D INTs - VT 7th, Duke 1st
Turnovers Gained - VT 8th, Duke 1st
Turnover Margin - VT 5th, Duke 7th
Run D - VT 3rd, Duke 6th
Pass Eff D - VT 4th, Duke 7th
RZ D - VT 2nd, Duke 8th
D Sacks - VT 5th, Duke 3rd
D TFL VT 5th, Duke 3rd

Looking at the O, what does need fixed?

RZ O. Vs Pitt two trips to RZ 3 pts off a 1st-and-goal at the 6 and later missed a 36y FG. (and another fringe RZ trip at the P22 ended in INT, Pitt got away with D holding/PI). Duke ranks 14th ACC in TD RZ with 41% (VT is 8th 55%). At one pt vs Miami, Duke was in the RZ 3x, but came away with just 3 pts. Last year they were 73% RZ TD conversions with basically the same personnel.

Rush O. At this pace the Duke run game is an endangered species. Since peaking vs Baylor with 246 (4.8) they've dropped each week - bottoming out vs Pitt with just 76y (2.92). Last year Duke ran 45-277 on VT, the 2nd best nonoption yardage gained on the Hokies. This year since allowing 231 (6.31) to WVU in the opener Hokies have clamped down allowing under 100 ypg. Duke needs to run the ball and they need to get more out of QB Jones in the running game. The last two games he's only run 5x per game for 9 total yards. The prior 3 games he avg 32y on 13 att, it doesn't need to be alot, it just needs to be timely and effective. Last year he ran for a season high 99y on VT. He ran for 108 on NW this year. So it can happen, it needs to happen.

Passing consistency. Daniel Jones was pretty good last year, this year has been a different story. In 5 of the last 6 games he's been under 55% completions, including 33% at Virginia. Why? OL has allowed some pressure (most glaring vs Miami). The receivers have dropped alot of balls. And Jones hasn't always delivered a good ball. A few games ago I read the Duke receivers only had a 50-60% catch rate based on targets, you'd like to see something in the 70%- 80% target/catch rate. There are some good piece around Jones, but the production isn't coming through.

So VT is not an ideal D to be trying to right those issues against. As little as I fear VT's O, their D against this struggling Duke O is of concern. I do have some past history to fall on.

The series has been close as I have said earlier. While Duke doesn't come in here with alot of confidence based on the last 4 weeks, they know they can compete with VT because everyone on this roster has before. 2016 3 pt VT win, 399-375 VT yard edge. 2015 2 pt Duke win, 452-449 VT yard edge. 2014 1 pt VT win with Duke having 326-293 yard edge.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say 1) the Duke D can hang in this game 2)Duke's O will perform better, not because they are right now, but because they have done it before, even earlier this year and the same players are there to do it 3) things have come easy for VT and they haven't been in a challenging game for several weeks (BC was in their rut 3 weeks ago unlike now) 4) VT does have the huge game vs Miami on deck, it may've crept into some of the psyche of the players 5) Cutcliffe is a great coach, he isn't getting the most out of his team right now, I'm going with him to fix it 6) Duke has a bye on deck, I really look for supreme effort here, they need a win badly - a 4-5 record after VT means they are on thin ice heading towards back-to-back losing seasons. Duke is going to come out fighting this game. I'm on the ML.
 
I agree with Baylor. I feel like Texas will come out flat after all the tough competition it's had. Ehlinger has been getting hit so hard, that has to wear on him, like Frank said a couple weeks ago. I feel like he sees a winless team and things "phew, can finally take a breather." Baylor growing desperate and have been competitive, as others have alluded. Also with Duke as a long shot. I think it's a low-scoring game where Duke has a shot to pull it out. VT overrated due to strength of schedule. I was thinking UT but I could never bet on them without Kelly. He's literally all they have on offense. Their QB can't throw it down the field
 
Ehlinger out today so liking Baylor more especially if Brewer gets in the game early.
Going to tail on Duke and adding some on Penn St ML and West Va ML and small parlay of those four
 
WV getting 7.5 at home seems large to me. Public all over WV. Shit weather, cold, early start for the battered OSU bunch. Lots of OL out. What am I missing here?
 
BOL to everyone today!! Here is my card:

3, 4, 5, 6, & 7 teamer RR:


  1. 10/28/2017 12:20 PM College Football 128 Wake Forest* +105 vs Louisville for 1st Half
  2. 10/28/2017 12:30 PM College Football 137 Virginia* +105 vs Pittsburgh U for 1st Half
  3. 10/28/2017 6:30 PM College Football 155 Minnesota U* +190 vs Iowa for 1st Half
  4. 10/28/2017 8:00 PM College Football 160 New Mexico State* +110 vs Arkansas State for 1st Half
  5. 10/28/2017 3:30 PM College Football 194 Iowa State* +190 vs TCU for 1st Half
  6. 10/28/2017 4:30 PM College Football 198 Western Kentucky* +170 vs Florida Atlantic for 1st Half
  7. 10/28/2017 8:00 PM College Football 201 Texas Tech* +575 vs Oklahoma for 1st Half

Risking $99.00 (99 parlays at $1.00) To Win $12,267.22

:beerchugger::drinkingcouch::eatingburger::eatingchinese::embarassed::fingerscrossed:
 
I'm starting to warm up to WVU ML, will be on them with the pts.

What are you missing? I don't know. OKSt has played better than score indicated in a couple games. WVU came back from 18 vs TT, nearly let Baylor come from 25 down last week. Played great vs TCU. Not sure either D is equipped to slow or stop the other team. Texas had a nice blueprint last week against OSU, but WVU may not have the players to do the same. Grier vs Rudolph, Crawford/Kennedy vs Hill/King, Sills/White/Jennings vs Washington/Ateman/McClesky, Holgerson vs Gundy...seems like a back-and-forth game. I'd be surprised if it wasn't a one score game and wouldn't be surprised if WVU won.
 
I believe weather conditions are a question mark for WVU-OSU...I'm not 100% certain but recall reading something.
 
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