Here are the ones that I seem to like most right now, just the higher odds ones:
Eastern Michigan +258
Just brutal losses they have been suffering, losers of 5 straight essentially all on the final play of the game. Off missed FG OT loss now. But they are a quality team. NIU looked like former self vs BG, thought they might even though I took BG. But EM is significantly better than BG. If EM has any gas left in the tank they can definitely win this. Last year they led 21-0 HT, but lost in OT. This EM team is every bit as good as last year, every bit. The only difference is last year they won 5 out of 6 regular season one-score games. This year they are losing them all.
Florida International +549
This won't be for everyone, LOL it might not end up even being for me. FIU sits 4-2 off a bye. They are an experienced team, although not really a good team in year 1 for Butch Davis. If I get the right FIU team to show up, I think they can do it. If the wrong FIU team shows up Marshall rolls. I really do not feel this Marshall team is that overwhelming. I need the Marshall team that doesn't seem to care much, like when they only beat Kent 21-0, or Charlotte 14-3, or in the first half only led ODU 7-3. See what I mean, I don't know why Marshall has games like that. If they do it here, FIU can beat them. Potential flat spot for them off MTSU with surging FAU on deck, although FIU beating them last year will probably keep their attention.
San Jose St +447
Another ugly dog. Also off bye and didn't look that bad against Hawaii. Run D is going to be biggest concern which makes me pretty nervous. SJSt O did put up 462 three weeks ago and 504 last game vs Hawaii. They are using Fr QB Montel Aaron who missed some of their winnable games (Ut St, UNLV, Fresno), but returned vs Hawaii. BYU is a mess obviously. They are still better and probably win this game, but can't say I'd be surprised if SJ won. Maybe BYU takes out frustration? Or maybe they are worn out from back-to-back trips east of the Mississippi?
North Carolina St +250
NCSt should provide more of a test for ND than SC did. Better QB, better D for Pack. Think SC has better RB and WR weapsons, but if the O can't get them the ball then what are they worth? Seems NCSt will be a tough out here. Off a bye. ND lost to them in that hurricane game where Kelly insisted to keep throwing the ball out of the shotgun. He will let Chip Long keep on the ground more here. Which is ok because that should play into the NCSt D strength. This will be a good battle in the trenches to watch when ND has the ball. NCSt D allowing 84y per game rushing. Irish will get alot more than that, but should make them atleast earn it. Finley is one of, if not the best ACC QB, most efficient atleast...69% 11-0 ratio and doesn't get sacked much, like 1 a game.
Houston +???
If Houston can stop killing themselves with turnovers they very well could've won the last two games and come in here 6-1, instead they are 4-3. Postma has been the right QB for them after Allen struggled, although his turnovers can be the difference. They aren't as good as last year, we all know that, but could be good enough to give USF a run for their money. USF has not been challenged much...at all? this year yet. And Houston looks like their toughest game to date.
Duke +505
This has been a very close series the last several years...2016 24-21 VT, 2015 45-43 Duke OT, 2014 17-16 VT, 2013 13-10 Duke. Now the 2013 and 2014 Duke teams were really good, this team isn't at that level and VT was worse off then. But still even last year when Duke was 4-8 and Hokies were riding high VT only outgained them by 24 yards. VT off a bye and off UNC in a game that they had to do little to nothing to get pts and blow Heels out. Something gives me the feeling these teams are closer than it would appear. VT avg just 126 rushing ypg vs ACC (Clem, BC, NC). Just not sure this Hokie O strikes fear in me. Need Duke to resemble their former self on O, the pieces are there, but they haven't put it together in a while. VT does have Miami on deck, a game that will decide the conference championship aspirations of both. Maybe they look past Duke a little and maybe Duke can pull it together.
Nebraska +194
Off bye...and off back-to-back ass kickings so not sure where Neb's heads are at right now. Purdue may care more about this game then them. Home night game, I think the staff can play up a SuperBowl angle to really get their kids fired up for this one. Going to have to weather the early surge. Purdue has looked very vulnerable on O the last several weeks. Playing Wisconsin will do that to you, but even vs Min and Rut this O they were -2 turnovers in both. Couldn't pass vs Rutgers, couldn't do much of anything til the second half vs Min. There are some things they can do well at times, but this doesn't appear to be a matchup that their O can dictate to a D what they want. On the other hand, this would seem to be a much better matchup for Neb O compared to facing OSU and Wisconsin last 2 games. I do fear turnovers because Neb is consistent at doing it at the worst possible times, like at the end of really nice drives or setting the opposing team up for pts. It feels sketchy, but also feels like a game Nebraska should win.
New Mexico St +189
Been a really good team to me this year. Even in the ats loses they were right there. Ark St won 41-22 last year, but what we have seen is that this NMSt team is playing everyone tougher than last year. I do think Ark St is the better team, for them though things have come pretty easy the last 3 games...GaSouthern, CoCarolina and ULL are just not going to challenge them much on O or D. NMSt has that ability. Also off a bye which they really needed having played 3 straight road games with alot of travel. So I think we see a better team than we saw from them last time out. I'd be shocked if their O doesn't keep this game competitive througout. The D is better and it is a tall order to contain this Ark St O, but I think they might be able to hang. I'd probably feel just a tad better with some more insurance on the spread and some better risk return on the ML. Maybe it gets bet up.
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