Week 9 Discussion Thread

[s--k]

rebs key to success lies with the running game anyways.. nevada has gotten gashed the last few weeks, they allowed Hawaii to rush for 225 on a clip better than 9yoc, wasnt much better against Fresno allowing another 220 on a better than 7 per carry clip!!

we need williams to go for 200 and wont matter who handing it off!!

Yes on Fresno and I don't remember when, but Rivers left the game so it was Fresno's #2 RB doing damage, who is sitll good. Mims I think.

The Hawaii runs were two 75 yarders I think.

Chuck Wagon going to unload in Reno! He just had a really big game a few weeks back.

 

[Tan1010]

I've got 10 I like

1) Flrorida State +9 - Clemson with all nailbiters this year. Back to back road games and now at home. Numerous injuries. Florida State 2 weeks ago a bye then a scrimmage vs UMass winning 59-3. Florida State should be in prime position to win this one outright. Getting 9 has to be the bet here.

2) Purdue vs Nebraska under 52 1/2 - Teams combine for 44 point games. Purdue in lots of defensive battles. All 7 of Purdues games under 52 this year. With Nebraska coming off bye I think Purdue tries to shorten game. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

3) Charlotte +17 1/2 - I don't think there's much difference between these 2 teams. Charlotte gets extra couple days to prepare. I like my chances with all them points and W. Kentucky questionable defense.

4) Ohio State vs Penn State under 60 1/2 - Penn State O struggled at home vs Illiinois. Penn State must shorten game and Defense shows up to have a chance. I think 1st half will be "low scoring" enough to keep this under. Or Penn State offense no shows and it gets under that way.

5) Texas State +20 1/2 - Scrappy team. Expect them to scratch and claw and keep within number.

6) Oklahoma vs Tex Tech over 67 - Tex Tech coaching change I think will have em slinging it a bit more. Oklahoma at home might get 50

7) Appy State vs ULM over 58 - ULM Defense is nonexistent. Appy at home should put up lots of points. ULM will keep fighting til end.

8) Florida +14 - At swamp. I think this is Florida's A game.

9) Iowa +3 1/2 - Off bye. Defense game. I'll take the FG

10) Louisville +6 1/2 - I think these teams are even. So I'll grab 6 points.

 

[KJ]

I've got 10 I like

1) Flrorida State +9 - Clemson with all nailbiters this year. Back to back road games and now at home. Numerous injuries. Florida State 2 weeks ago a bye then a scrimmage vs UMass winning 59-3. Florida State should be in prime position to win this one outright. Getting 9 has to be the bet here.

2) Purdue vs Nebraska under 52 1/2 - Teams combine for 44 point games. Purdue in lots of defensive battles. All 7 of Purdues games under 52 this year. With Nebraska coming off bye I think Purdue tries to shorten game. That's my story and I'm sticking with it.

3) Charlotte +17 1/2 - I don't think there's much difference between these 2 teams. Charlotte gets extra couple days to prepare. I like my chances with all them points and W. Kentucky questionable defense.

4) Ohio State vs Penn State under 60 1/2 - Penn State O struggled at home vs Illiinois. Penn State must shorten game and Defense shows up to have a chance. I think 1st half will be "low scoring" enough to keep this under. Or Penn State offense no shows and it gets under that way.

5) Texas State +20 1/2 - Scrappy team. Expect them to scratch and claw and keep within number.

6) Oklahoma vs Tex Tech over 67 - Tex Tech coaching change I think will have em slinging it a bit more. Oklahoma at home might get 50

7) Appy State vs ULM over 58 - ULM Defense is nonexistent. Appy at home should put up lots of points. ULM will keep fighting til end.

8) Florida +14 - At swamp. I think this is Florida's A game.

9) Iowa +3 1/2 - Off bye. Defense game. I'll take the FG

10) Louisville +6 1/2 - I think these teams are even. So I'll grab 6 points.

They don't play at the swamp, they always play in Jacksonville, 50/50 ticket split

 

[booksbestfriend]

You guys ever seen a favorite, who's TT is less than the dog?

 

[s--k]

I just noticed, the UCLA - Utah total. 60.5? That is normally the neighborhood where UCLA totals are set, but high for a Utah total even though two of their last three would've gone over this number.

Is this high, or about right?

 

[s--k]

Some speculation that BC could make a QB switch

 

[s--k]

Talk about a tough loss to rebound from, how about Colorado State losing in the fashion they did at Utah State. Thought players might brawl coaches in the locker room after that one. I don't know about that game.

 

[KJ]

Talk about a tough loss to rebound from, how about Colorado State losing in the fashion they did at Utah State. Thought players might brawl coaches in the locker room after that one. I don't know about that game.

What a clusterfuck, had CSU ML. Made my eyes bleed.

 

[CPA-hole]

What a clusterfuck, had CSU ML. Made my eyes bleed.

Same. We got Adazio'd

 

[Tanko]

I've got 10 I like

1) Flrorida State +9 - Clemson with all nailbiters this year. Back to back road games and now at home. Numerous injuries. Florida State 2 weeks ago a bye then a scrimmage vs UMass winning 59-3. Florida State should be in prime position to win this one outright. Getting 9 has to be the bet here.

I'm liking Fla St +9 as well. Clemson is still way overrated in a few power ratings and they haven't won a game by more than 6 this year. I put Fla St on par with Clemson's prior opponents (BC & NC) and Clemson lost one and won one (by 6 @ home). Meanwhile Fla St. has picked it up a little more lately. The Syr and NC wins seem to have been a turning point for them this season.

YPP stats for the season indicate Fla St should keep it close. YPP for the last 3 games indicate Fla St should win outright. Indicates improved performance of late.

The scariest stat though is Clemson is 0-7 ATS. I hate betting against a team that may be "due" to win a game. In spite of this, I'm on Fla St. +9.

 

[Tanko]

Virg/BYU tonight... I'm on the Cavaliers +2.5 tonight. They are on a roll the last 4 weeks against teams mostly better or on par with BYU. Meanwhile BYU had struggled barely beating a bad Wash St. team last week and losing to Baylor and Boise.

Virg 4-0 ATS last 4 weeks. BYU 1-3 ATS covering only against Utah St.. Utah St. is a bad team and it was a 1 possession game into the mid-4th quarter. Virg passing game is stout. 2nd in country on yds/game. BYU pass D is just average.

YPP over last 3 weeks, during which each team played opponents similar in overall strength as today, shows Virg should win outright easily. I'm leaning towards Virg ML bet instead of taking the points. It'll depend on the price I see.

 

[booksbestfriend]

FSU will not win, nor come close. The O is elementary. Venables will make them his bitch

 

[Tanko]

FSU will not win, nor come close. The O is elementary. Venables will make them his bitch

No doubt, that could happen. Clem has held teams to 10, 8, & 13 points at home this season. The problem is the Offense has only scored 3, 14, & 19 pts in the same games. Again, there hasn't been a game in which Clemson has won by more than 6 home or on the road.

If Clemson doesn't score more than 21 points (their high this season), they likely will not cover the +9 FSU is getting.

Do you think FSU will score < 12 pts in the game??? If so, you should go with your bet and take Clemson to cover.
Good luck.

 

[booksbestfriend]

No doubt, that could happen. Clem has held teams to 10, 8, & 13 points at home this season. The problem is the Offense has only scored 3, 14, & 19 pts in the same games. Again, there hasn't been a game in which Clemson has won by more than 6 home or on the road.

If Clemson doesn't score more than 21 points (their high this season), they likely will not cover the +9 FSU is getting.

Do you think FSU will score < 12 pts in the game??? If so, you should go with your bet and take Clemson to cover.
Good luck.

No

 

[Tanko]

FSU will not win, nor come close. The O is elementary. Venables will make them his bitch

Wow. Clemson covers on a stupid play by FSU to end the game. Sometimes people can still be correct just by being lucky and let me tell you that was lucky.

 

[booksbestfriend]

Wow. Clemson covers on a stupid play by FSU to end the game. Sometimes people can still be correct just by being lucky and let me tell you that was lucky.

Hopefully, you weren't on the receiving end of that lucky Clemson play. And I don't say this to be an ass. Just hope you didn't lose on that BS.

 

[Tanko]

Hopefully, you weren't on the receiving end of that lucky Clemson play. And I don't say this to be an ass. Just hope you didn't lose on that BS.

I was on FSU.

 

[booksbestfriend]

I was on FSU.

Sorry dude.