Week 9 Discussion Thread

2daBank said:
My thing is if I like them to get over their tt I like the +17 just as much. I feel reasonably confident their d can show up, especially with the weather forecast. As I mentioned my 1st thought before capping it was coastal tt over but once I did some work on it wasn’t a fan of that anymore. Troy been especially strong with the run d, cc like to run a lot, throw in if the weather makes passing tough they might only need 14 to cover the spread!!
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I went ahead and took Troy. Wish I’d gotten 17+ earlier in the week, but I think this is gonna close below 17
 
Ryno14 said:
Just not sure I can take that
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Yeah not sure how it translates. CCU should be ground and pound anyway but after the physical game last week it really comes down to whether they can create chunk plays on the ground to me. Clock should be running often and limit possessions.
 
Mich/Mich St U24.5 1st half. I expect both teams to be run heavy early and try to not make a mistake. Harbaugh and Tucker have zero balls and will play ultra vanilla. Walker and Corum should be busy. Both teams with decent special teams. I like MSUs WRs, but the Wolverine D/secondary is the best the Spartans have seen. I dont look for explosive plays and I think drives bog down nearing the redzone. A couple stalled drives and FGs will make this a 10-3 halftime score....
 
KJ said:
Yeah not sure how it translates. CCU should be ground and pound anyway but after the physical game last week it really comes down to whether they can create chunk plays on the ground to me. Clock should be running often and limit possessions.
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I don’t think we will see lot of chunk plays on the ground vs Troy who sporting a ypc average against that one of best in country!
 
i ended up playing usf+10 and 1st half under 28.5. dunno what got into me with the total? wasnt even on my list then i saw that hook and thought bout how ive seen both these teams offenses be kinda sluggish in the 1st qrtrs, chilly rain with a little wind, i would expect a lot of rushing attempts and the clock moving.. that hook just screamed at me, hopefully it wasnt put there to set me up!! lol...

held my nose and played troy +17 smaller.. with those weather conditions gotta like troy run defense which ranks 5th in the country in ypc, going up against a CC team who has a lot of rushing attempts in nice weather.. im far more concerned with troy offense but didnt have the guts to play a coastal team total under.
 
2daBank said:
i ended up playing usf+10 and 1st half under 28.5. dunno what got into me with the total? wasnt even on my list then i saw that hook and thought bout how ive seen both these teams offenses be kinda sluggish in the 1st qrtrs, chilly rain with a little wind, i would expect a lot of rushing attempts and the clock moving.. that hook just screamed at me, hopefully it wasnt put there to set me up!! lol...

held my nose and played troy +17 smaller.. with those weather conditions gotta like troy run defense which ranks 5th in the country in ypc, going up against a CC team who has a lot of rushing attempts in nice weather.. im far more concerned with troy offense but didnt have the guts to play a coastal team total under.
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There you go moving lines again! I see 8.5 on USF now
 
Ryno14 said:
Oh for sure. 10 is the grab was the point.
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If it would have moved on me I'd have paid the extra 10 cents to get 10, was waiting to see if it would go to 10.5 since it had been moving up but 10 was obviously the resistance
 
KJ said:
If it would have moved on me I'd have paid the extra 10 cents to get 10, was waiting to see if it would go to 10.5 since it had been moving up but 10 was obviously the resistance
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seems pretty crazy to me there ppl out there laying that! You could tell me ya passing and i would totally understand, but actually making a bet on ecu laying this seems nuts to me. i been wrong before tho.
 
so far iowa is the 2nd most popular play in the sbr pick 6 contest well they actually most popular far as number of plays but wiscy has 4 ppl on them while only 2 ppl on mississippi st with only 2 less ppl on uk than iowa.. either way it still early, can usually tell how it gonna go by now and it appears iowa gonna be hugely popular!! damn, lol.. that ok tho, i have heard that wiscy is the sharp side and way line moving appears that is true,, im ok with being a square, long as there sharps on the opposite!! it those games where everyone sharp and square alike are on the same side and we all against the books that scare the living hell out of me!!
 
Troy/Coastal -17.

I was leaning Troy due to the weather and thinking it may slow Coastal down a little. The line dropped from 18.5 to 17. Coastal is the #1 CFB in yds/pass play and its not even close. Although CCU runs a little over 55% of the time, the big passing plays (avg yds per pass attempt ~13 yds) seem to be their way to win/cover. Rain should hamper that a little.

But, IMO for Troy to cover, you'd be betting on 3 things:
1) Troy's stout rushing D stopping CCU's run game. (possible)
2) The weather slowing CCU down in the air. (possible)
3) Troy's anemic rush offense somehow is able to get some scores. (not sure about this)

I hate betting on "weather" games so I'm going to pass on this one.
Good Luck.
 
So the rain will be there for the Coastal game, pretty much guaranteed. Possible thunderstorms which means possible lightning delays, ugh.

Wind hovering around 10 mph isn't all that bad but ball will likely be pretty slippery
 
Nice time to remember that TAMPA gets more rain than any city in the country...leggo Bulls!
 
Just locked in 1H U28.5 -120 and U56.5 -110 on USF/ECU. Hope guys can hang on to the ball and not give short fields tonight
 
Tanko said:
Troy/Coastal -17.

I was leaning Troy due to the weather and thinking it may slow Coastal down a little. The line dropped from 18.5 to 17. Coastal is the #1 CFB in yds/pass play and its not even close. Although CCU runs a little over 55% of the time, the big passing plays (avg yds per pass attempt ~13 yds) seem to be their way to win/cover. Rain should hamper that a little.

But, IMO for Troy to cover, you'd be betting on 3 things:
1) Troy's stout rushing D stopping CCU's run game. (possible)
2) The weather slowing CCU down in the air. (possible)
3) Troy's anemic rush offense somehow is able to get some scores. (not sure about this)

I hate betting on "weather" games so I'm going to pass on this one.
Good Luck.
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My biggest concern is def Troy offense. I dunno if they can score or not? Or even just get some 1st downs to keep the defense rested? I do like their run d as even most CC passing attack comes off the run game. I dunno, we see. Originally I was looking to do what I often do when CC plays a relatively bad team and play the tt over (sometimes it fun being square!), but then the closer I looked the less I liked it. Just small play on Troy for me. Nothing serious, one these games I know I would have passed if it was Saturday! Usually best to leave those alone.
 
KJ said:
So the rain will be there for the Coastal game, pretty much guaranteed. Possible thunderstorms which means possible lightning delays, ugh.

Wind hovering around 10 mph isn't all that bad but ball will likely be pretty slippery
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Sometimes that not great for unders. Man I hope it not thundershowers, all I saw was “showers” so was hoping no delays.
 
2daBank said:
Sometimes that not great for unders. Man I hope it not thundershowers, all I saw was “showers” so was hoping no delays.
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Yeah hard for me to do square weather unders in weather, usually they get smoked for me

Same with the thunder boomers rolling in around now in both games, gotta keep the lightning at a distance
 
KJ said:
Yeah hard for me to do square weather unders in weather, usually they get smoked for me

Same with the thunder boomers rolling in around now in both games, gotta keep the lightning at a distance
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Only under I have tonight is 1st half u28.5 in the ecu game, don’t even know what the weather like there? I did see chance of rain earlier in the week. More about how sluggish both teams tend to start games offensively.
 
2daBank said:
Only under I have tonight is 1st half u28.5 in the ecu game, don’t even know what the weather like there? I did see chance of rain earlier in the week. More about how sluggish both teams tend to start games offensively.
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Identical weather timelines for both games other than slightly less rain chance in ECU game but still likely

It's 100% in Coastal game
 
Arizona State still having penalty problems. After 13-135 week 1 and 16-121 game 3, might've thought they fixed it averaging just 6 over three PAC12 games until they were hit with 13-115 last game vs Utah. Looks like it is still going to be something possible of holding them back any given week. They are second most penalized team in the nation on a per game basis (OMiss) and third most on a yards basis (OMiss and UAB)
 
i dont love Nevada anymore!l lol.. they covered at least last week but i dont get why they play such sloppy, lethargic ball at beginning of damn near all their games? certainly the games against better teams. got down a few scores to Cal, got down to k-st and while they came back didnt have enough to overcome spotting them a few score lead, last week they played like ass until they were damn near out of time, not to mention had they not started doing the dumb shit analytic math in the 3rd which cause them to go for 2 to try and make it a fg game then they wouldnt have needed a 2 to tie at the end. Chalk another one up to the analytic crowd that doesnt understand the math is not absolute in real world conditions! i like the advanced numbers a great deal but i understand they a tool not the be all end all!! the world is grey not black and white as the numbers geeks would like us to believe!

So yea, i like the roster and think the passing game can be down right scary but they have more problems than i recognized. I have no problem with a bet on unlv for real, they been a covering machine. they seem to play over their talent level while nevada underachieves imo..seems just like the kind of team you would want to take 20 points and they playing the kind of team i certainly wouldnt want to lay it with.. Only MW game i recall where nev laid a lot of points vs a bottom feeder was NMst and they did what they do and played a lethargic 1st qrtr that had them trailing 7-3 before they woke up in 2nd qrtr. trounced them in 2nd and 3rd but then got lazy in the 4th and let nmst cover i believe.. another thing bout nevada they dont have a very good run game so they cant keep teams off the field to finish the game. so they typically start slow and cant salt clock away with a big lead late, that gives ya several avenues to cover with rebs!! i bet nevada vs hawaii basically tailing Tahoe, i didnt watch but he said we were really fortunate to cover that as well! almost the exact same Mo, hawaii gets a 7-3 1st qrtr lead, nevada wakes up and lights them up in 2nd and 3rd (hawaii did score with them during initial onslaught), only difference here and prob why Hawaii didnt come back was their qb got hurt i believe so the 4th qrtr was scoreless!! i have no doubt hawaii covers and prob makes it very close if qb doesnt go down!!

So yea i did like Nevada but i like money way more and this seems like a good time to bet Rebs. my only concern would be are rebs deflated? they have had a chance to finally get a W the last few weeks and came up just short. maybe they will be inspired to keep chopping away knowing they close, or maybe the get demoralized.. i would worry more bout that if Nevada came out and took it to them but we know that not their mo and they coming off losing a game that prob cost them a chance to win mw! hell, i could see unlv winning for real. maybe a good idea to play them 1st qrtr and/or half as well?
 
s--k said:
Arizona State still having penalty problems. After 13-135 week 1 and 16-121 game 3, might've thought they fixed it averaging just 6 over three PAC12 games until they were hit with 13-115 last game vs Utah. Looks like it is still going to be something possible of holding them back any given week. They are second most penalized team in the nation on a per game basis (OMiss) and third most on a yards basis (OMiss and UAB)
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So found out washington state lost not only their head coach but the oc, dline coach, oline coach, all resigned too. Didn't know that - surprised the assistants didn't get any media pub who knew they lost that much it was hard to find.

Somehow managed last week but now that they lost for first time under the new coach maybe the wheels fall off. Arizona State back in the hunt for pac 12 title with utah loss.

pentalties another reason to like wazzou fundamentally - but now a game I'd rather be off of
 
EL CAPO said:
So found out washington state lost not only their head coach but the oc, dline coach, oline coach, all resigned too. Didn't know that - surprised the assistants didn't get any media pub who knew they lost that much it was hard to find.

Somehow managed last week but now that they lost for first time under the new coach maybe the wheels fall off. Arizona State back in the hunt for pac 12 title with utah loss.
will
pentalties another reason to like wazzou fundamentally - but now a game I'd rather be off of
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yea i have no desire to try and figure this out., hate laying big numbers with Herm's squad, dunno what wazzu will be mentally. maybe wazzu team total under?
 
2daBank said:
yea i have no desire to try and figure this out., hate laying big numbers with Herm's squad, dunno what wazzu will be mentally. maybe wazzu team total under?
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maybe full game under but not a strong feel. thought this line was 56 early in week, looks like 54. Washington State unders been cashing lately
 
So yea i did like Nevada but i like money way more and this seems like a good time to bet Rebs. my only concern would be are rebs deflated? they have had a chance to finally get a W the last few weeks and came up just short. maybe they will be inspired to keep chopping away knowing they close, or maybe the get demoralized.. i would worry more bout that if Nevada came out and took it to them but we know that not their mo and they coming off losing a game that prob cost them a chance to win mw! hell, i could see unlv winning for real. maybe a good idea to play them 1st qrtr and/or half as well?
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Rivalry trophy game with bad blood history. Case to be made neither team would be deflated or demoralized. On the flip side, Nevada playing with bigger goals in mind, like winning MWC title and their chance for that took a hit with that loss. And UNLV took a literal hit, which I still think was targeting, on the final play last game vs San Jose. Both teams got gut punched.

Friel has improved after a really shaky first 2 games.

UNLV has played a pretty decent schedule to date. Being in position to win games vs Utah State and San Jose and only losing at UTSA by 7 and leading vs Fresno shows something about them. No shame for them to lose to Eastern Washington in the opener either, that team is 6-1 and ranked 7th FCS and that game went to OT. I will be on Rebs tonight.
 
s--k said:
Rivalry trophy game with bad blood history. Case to be made neither team would be deflated or demoralized. On the flip side, Nevada playing with bigger goals in mind, like winning MWC title and their chance for that took a hit with that loss. And UNLV took a literal hit, which I still think was targeting, on the final play last game vs San Jose. Both teams got gut punched.

Friel has improved after a really shaky first 2 games.

UNLV has played a pretty decent schedule to date. Being in position to win games vs Utah State and San Jose and only losing at UTSA by 7 and leading vs Fresno shows something about them. No shame for them to lose to Eastern Washington in the opener either, that team is 6-1 and ranked 7th FCS and that game went to OT. I will be on Rebs tonight.
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seems like the right side to me. Nevada has made a habit of sluggish starts and they not very good at closing out games either since their run game is awful!! they rank 125-126-127 in every rushing category!! so even if they get a lead good luch salting the game away.. they pretty much been a 2nd/3rd qrtr team all year with exception of the games they were still digging themselves out another hole they created for themselves.. their MW hopes are all but gone correct? that not gonna inspire them to come out with their hair on fire. that would be my only worry would be if rebs get punched in the mouth would all the close losses then that just be too much? i dont think it matters tho cause nevada doesnt come out strong on anyone,, they have trailed 7-3 after 1st in recent weeks to NMst, Hawaii, and Freson last week! they got down 14 right out the gates to cal.. they just dont come out firing on all cylinders very often. the longer you let rebs hang around or even take a lead the more belief you give them., last thing ya want is for a team like them to start tasting that 1st W!!!
 
2daBank said:
their MW hopes are all but gone correct?
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No. If San Diego State beats Fresno then Fresno would have 2 MWC losses. If that happens and they both keep winning then San Diego State and Nevada would play for first place in division 11/13
 
I’m trying to juggle being in a wedding, capping, and doing work. Boss hasn’t said a word in 2 weeks and all of a sudden needs everything today.
 
s--k said:
No. If San Diego State beats Fresno then Fresno would have 2 MWC losses. If that happens and they both keep winning then San Diego State and Nevada would play for first place in division 11/13
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ah,, cool.. thought my nevada to win MW was toast, lol. of course i think it toast anyways cause Fresno gonna beat sdst. not to mention i dont expect nevada to beat sdst cause they not playing nearly as well i thought they were capable of..
 
rebs key to success lies with the running game anyways.. nevada has gotten gashed the last few weeks, they allowed Hawaii to rush for 225 on a clip better than 9yoc, wasnt much better against Fresno allowing another 220 on a better than 7 per carry clip!!
 
s--k said:
I had actually viewed them as equals, as in it doesn't matter due to the way Friel has improved. After reading the story linked, it sounds like Friel is going to continue to be the guy and everyone seems pleased with him.
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we need williams to go for 200 and wont matter who handing it off!!
 
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