Please share mistakes I made/injury concerns that can shade ownership on said player, or give value on the next man up.
Just going to ramble thoughts down, so please ignore formatting and run ons.. lol
NEP/CAR
NEP DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
CAR DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is T7 for the week. O/U is last of the main slate (the bottom 3 of the week are much lower than the rest) 30/41/41.5 then it goes 45.5+.
Mac has the 5th worst ASR matchup, 3rd of the main slate. Darnold has the 7th worst ASR matchup, 5th of the main slate.
Da. Harris has the 8th worst ALY push, 6th worst of the main slate.
With the low spread, the middling pace, the pressure matchups of both QBs, this is a stay away spot for dfs. I'd at maximum consider one offs and/or defenses w/ or w/o a hopefully low owned RB (CMC/Da.Harris).
Just saw the concerns with darnold. I don't hate the idea of PJ walker as a cheap punt option.... just wish he had a better matchup, don't go crazy there if you do go that direction.
BUF/JAC
BUF DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
JAC DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 2nd fastest of the week. O/U is 4th highest of main slate.
Allen has the best ASR matchup. Lawrence is T8 best ASR matchup T7 for the main slate.
Moss? has the 8th best ALY matchup, 7th for main slate.
While its only the 4th highest O/U of the mainslate, buffalo is a big fave, vaulting them to the highest TT of the week, and need to be considered. With the expected pass, the fantastic DVOA matchup, the best ASR matchup... how do you not try to fit Allen in!??! I will be game and team stacking this one from both ends - (so lawrence a smidge too).
Since beasley's resurgence (yay!), sanders has seen the least targets of the trio (diggs/sanders/beasley). But even with the lowest target total, he consistently racks up air yards.
The last 2 week stats for these guys
Diggs - 18 targets - 126 air yards - 7 aDOT
Beasley - 22 - 135 - 6.16 aDOT
Sanders 12 - 285 - 23.75 aDOT.
I don't want to give up on diggs (and neither do a couple of my year long leagues) but price wise, we have to consider sanders potential and deep ball involvement. Same goes for beasley in regards to PPR format. Both are viable options. I think diggs is too.
Now I'd say completely away from G.davis as he's seen about half the snap share of the worst of the big 3 for the season.
Sweeney saw 4 targets, which is essentially knox outside of 1 big game. Take the dart if you want, but I'm not chasing it.
Moss is still my favorite option of the 2... although I hate theur td equity is always hit by allen. but Moss had 2/3's of the snaps iun the backfield last week. and had 15 possible touches (8 carries, 7 targets). He's a fine option, but not sure if there are better alternatives in other games.
Note: Beasley is questionable
The jags side of things gets dicey.
Marvin Jones is the 1 constant I think you can kind of depend on in terms of usage, but he may have the hardest matchup and is the only A guy they need to look out for really. So do we trust it? He does see 90%+ snaps, 7+ targets 90+ air yards.
I thought shenault would be a beast when chark went down. In 3 prepared games without chark, he had 3/10/4 targets... so kind of boomy or busty. I'm leaning towards boomy tomorrow but won't over expose myself becauseeeee dan arnold is essentially shenault and he comes at a cheaper discount, and allows you to take a bigger/better upside WR.
Its worth noting that the Jags may have to abandon the run, we are uncertain of JRob, and if he plays I'd be nervous of reinjury, and that Agnew in a similar script to how this game could play out, saw 12 targets last week. Hyde can of course be considers with no JRob.
Also note --- only game where weather is noticeable (just some stronger wind gusts than anywhere else)
ATL/NOS
ATL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 6th for the week (5th for main slate). O/U is 2nd lowest of main slate, paired with NEP/CAR.
Ryan is T4th for best ASR matchup, T3rd for main slate. Siemian? is T6th best, T5th for main slate.
Kamara has the 9th best ALY matchup, 8th of main slate. M. Davis? has 2nd worst ALY matchup.
I actually think I may make a play on the over in this game. I think people see the injuries, the low total, division game, and it will draw down ownership. I don't want to go crazy, but I'll probably be higher than the field, which is what you want. Both QBs look to be able to have some time in the pocket, and its a decent paced game.
I don't like that Kamara had his lowest snaps of the year, with the acquisition of ingram..... and that was in a competitive game script. But he still managed 19 carries, 4 targets. (ingram had 6 and 2). From above, I think he will still go underowned, and has an easy path to a multi td game with 100+ yards and catches. Keep him on your radar.
Siemien did target D. Harris the most, but they were short passes underneath for the most part. Trequan was targeted in the redzone (and was the recipient of winstons TD pass) --- so the coaches seem to trust him/look his way there. Callaway would be the other Wr to take (advocating not to consider harris). As a whole, I don't want these receivers really.
On atlantas side of things, not sure if it was a blip or not, but mike davis was equally involved as patterson, and comes at a steep discount. Davis carries/targets were 9/6, patterson was 9/5. They ended up with 66/72 yards. I wouldn't take patterson while davis is just a smarter pivot... could pass all together and make sure its just an anomaly first.
Idk what to do with these receivers... gage looked ok 2 weeks ago, then he did nothing on 60% of snaps (prior to injury)... not even a target. Kind of circles me back to davis, and maybe the reason why he was more involved (as ryan doesn't trust the WRs? with no ridley). Looks like sharpe is passing zaccheau.... I guess I'd only consider pitts, as his snaps went up, and he does see 7 targets a game.. I just hate his price for that position, in a not so great matchup... but you're getting a WR in the TE slot. Again, I don't want these receivers really.
TL
R Go go Kamara. Davis Over Patterson, Just Pitts.
LVR/NYG
LVR DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd for the week. O/U is middle of the pack.
Carr has the 6th worst ASR matchup, 4th of the main slate.
Booker has the 6th worst ALY matchup, 4th of the main slate.
I think this game is a fine candidate for a small game/team stack. We have injuries/unfortunate news on both sides that open up cheap value/opportunities for players in a matchup with a middling O/U, but a quick pace, and decent DVOA matchup.
No barkley/shep/pettis. Waiting on golladay/ross. We know Toney is a lock to go! Somehow, despite those injuries, and the constant injuries, the giants have started two games this year, where the 3 WRs were golladay/toney/ross. (week 4/5). Toney had 9/13 targets for 72/124 air yards. I believe in that 2nd game he didn't play in its entirety either and this will be the first time he's not on the injury report since. Sign me up. I will say golladay and ross had the bigger aDOTs, and may be considered the deep threats, don't hate the idea of taking a stab, but toney is what I would want. Another week, another day to point out the bad Oline push matchup of the giants. Booker finished with 4 ypcarry so not terrible... but steps into a harder matchup now. He did see 6 targets, and was out there 93% of the time last week.... that should not go unnoticed. He's a fine option to consider, he's cheap too.
D. Jones is always an interesting DFS option. He's usually cheap, and is a dual threat. Don't hate the idea of playing him.
Sidenote - I kind of forget about slayton..... probably because he had 2 targets in a game where he led the WRs in snap by atleast 30% (he had 87%, next was 57%). His only big game of the season game when shep/toney/golladay were all out.. and he finished with 9 targets, 63 yards. Pass, but i'd also knock ross down the tube too.
LVR backfield is kind of messy. Jacobs/Drake/Ingold/Richard had 36/39/26/24% snap shares. Ew. The good news? Drake did a lot with less. 14 carries/3 targets. Not terrible, This was in a game they at right before halftime and never looked back. I'd assume they just let jacobs rest at that point, and if you're considering playing one of these backs, you need to be mindful of how YOU think the game will play out. Close game, Small lead - Jacobs, Small deficit, Big deficit/lead - Drake. Probably.
Who benefits the most with no Ruggs and his 70% snap share, 15% target share, 27% air yards share? On a lower level, zay jones gets a boost, but I don't think I can use him for a DFS lineup, but I guess he can be a hail mary punt play at the minimum price. Edwards is 1100 more and has a comparable aDOT, and is/has been the starter from the get go. A note I read is that the giants used there best corner on kelce last week... if they do the same to waller. Hello Edwards! He's had 7 20+ yard catches this year and has the biggest upside to him (and probably lowest floor as waller/renfrow are the ppr guys)
MIN/BAL
MIN DVOA Matchup good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
BAL DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is T7th for the week. O/U is highest of the main slate.
Lamar has the worst ASR matchup of the week. Cousins has the 2nd best.
Cook as the worst ALY matchup of the week.
first things first, I'm playing minny at +6.
What the heck do we do here. I think I'd rather fade lamar at that range, as I'd rather try to pay up for allen or pay down when it comes to DFS. Now lamar has the ability to break slates, but this has the chargers matchup vibe to me, where everyone attacked this game and got screwed. That's not to say one offs can't work, and that's what I'll be doing. Dalvin cook is to expensive, and has the hardest matchup in that area.as i'd rather have jones/ekeler/jamara/etc, so pass. The best part of this passing offense is that it is concentrated. Even with conklin eating into it... its him, jefferson, and thielen. Thielen just doesn't leave the field, almost ever. He's averaging 97% of snaps per game. Jefferson was trending up every game, reaching 94% until last week he was forced off the field (before returning) due to an injury. Prior to that he averaged 10+ targets a game, and 107+airyards, only 1 less TD than thielen (this year).... I think he can kaboom, especially with balty's blitz heavy scheme. Opportunities will be there. Conklin is dirt cheap on DFS, I'm concerned his opportunities increased last week because of jefferson missing the field, but it won't take much to pay off his salary and can be considered (think I prefer arnold).
On the balty side, we aren't targetting the RBs, ever. I mentioned how I want to avoid lamar at that price range. I'm not worried about bateman just yet, although 6 targets in both of his games isn't bad. Andrews aDOT for a TE is only bested by Pitts, and gronk (albeit smaller sample size in games and targets). he can always be considered as a high ceiling option in a position where it's hard to find. Having said all that, holllllyyywood brown may be back! The guy had 321!!!!! air yards last week. an aDOT of 22.93, his season average is 16.04 (on 8.7 targets), so it's not a one shot anomaly, its deep throws on a consistent basis. Mike evans and Sanders are the 2 semi good sample candidates that have a higher aDOT this guy (and thats on less targets... ----- devonta smith/courtland sutton are close). He would be my bring back with jefferson/conklin (not talking off theilen, but just taking a stand against it).
CLV/CIN
CLV DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 14th out of 14. O/U is in the middle.
Burrow has the 2nd worst ASR matchup. Baker has the 8th worst, 6th of the main slate.
Mixon has the 10th worst ALY push, 7th of the main slate.
I hate the pace, I don't trust the RBs in this matchup, and the QB's will be pressured more often then other games in other matchups. Division game. I never want to count chubb out, and he's the glaring choice in cleveland, maybe landry in ppr formats, but there's just better options in these areas. Pass. While burrow has a good technically DVOA matchup and I'm passing on him.... we can always one off a WR if you want. I know we know chase can explode at any moment, but I'd much rather have higgins at his price point. Chase was kept to a 3.22 aDOT last week (unbelievable vs the jets honestly). Higgins was 16.83, and they both were just under 12 last week. Chase is great, and is fighting for rookie of year (heck maybe more if he keeps breaking out), but higgins continues to get overlooked. he's averaging 9 targets across 5 games and would be my consideration from cincy side of things.
DEN/DAL
DEN DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th, 2nd slowest of main slate. O/U is surprisingly 3rd highest of main slate.
Dak? has the 10th best ASR matchup, 9th of main slate.
Zeke has the 3rd best ALY push.
Same as buffalo, dallas is a big fave with a high o/u, so its worth noting that they have the 2nd highest TT of the week. Zeke is in a prime spot DVOA wise, and ALY wise, and has a projected script that fits him perfectly. Maybe the dak injury lingering will make them play a bit conservative later too. I think he has a clear path to 25+ carries/targets. Also, there was concerns of pollard eating into zekes turkey but the past 3 weeks has seen the snaps spread from 60/40 to 75/25. Keep it going. I won't talk anyone completely off the offense, they can hit one at any moment. I just want to limit my exposure here as I don't like the pace contradicting the O/U. Lamb/Cooper/Schultz is how I'd have it.
Denver has a true 55/45 split in the backfield. I still prefer javonte, but what are you hoping for? He gets the TD and not Gordon, but still, his yardage will lack minus a luck explosive play.... the gap needs to widen before we can consider this in a negative game script, and timeshare. You can consider Okwuegbunams opportunity here at 2.6K and thats fine, but I'll probably pivot to arnold/conklin more to gain leverage. Now, those 6+ targets a game arent' going all to okwuegbunam.... one of sutton/jeudy/patrick will have a payoff game, but I can't pick which one and will most likely leave it off unless massively multy entering lineups. Sutton has been the airyard/aDOT king, but patrick isn't to far behind... but most of that production was with no juedy involved. Not sure here.
HOU/MIA
HOU DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is T9th for the week. O/U is on the low side of the middles.
Tua has the 9th worst ASR matchup, 7th of the main slate.
Gaskin? has the 10th best ALY push, 9th of the main slate. Da. Johnson? has the 3rd worst ALY push.
Taylor is back! Cooks owns a massive 30% target share, and 45% air yard share. He needs to be considered all weeks. I don't think I want to look much further. Taylor did like johnson week 1 in the redzone, and he had 4 targets... no ingram, but had 18% snaps BYE. Burkhead was at 50% last week. With that, he had 4 carries and 4 targets... BYE. Now... I'm assuming those are because they were behind massively, and this could be a game where houston leads at some point. I'd rather take a wait and see approach on how they'll use the backfield then. Cooks for me, if you want to dart another pass catcher because of taylor, go ahead.
There's cheaper options than gesicki with possibly just as much upside. Even with parker back, waddle actually saw his snaps rise to 94%, highest of the season, and his targets (11) were above his season avg. (8.5)... thats encouraging, and I think he or parker can be used.
Depsire the ALY push, and cheap price tag, probably passing on gaskin. He's capped at 60%~ snaps, and has had double digit carries 3 out of 8 weeks.
that's it for 1pms, 4pms tonight or tomorrow morning