Week 8 What Have We Learned

Gandolf said:
Von Miller to the Rams for a 2nd and 3rd next year. And Denver pays almost all Miller's salary this year. Rams are all-in this year.
Click to expand...

when the next time rams have a draft pick in the 1st 2 days of draft? lol.. they just have to stay healthy cause they very top heavy.
 
kirk cousins is my freaking hero! it gives me hope to see a guy with so little talent making sooooo much money!

how pathetic was that game he played last night? 3rd and long and guy checks it down every time!! guess his agent told him to just keep that completion percentage up and he will get him another contract he dont deserve!!!
 
Lions are such a goofy team, they battle their asses off and come so close to beating teams they have no business being on the same field with, but every time they step down in competition in a game lined around a fg and should have a chance to win they get destroyed!! it makes no damn sense, typically when you see a lessor team like them who play the big boys so tough they find a way to get a few the winnable ones vs other bad teams, not sure i ever recall a team with this kind of MO!
 
Gandolf said:
Von Miller to the Rams for a 2nd and 3rd next year. And Denver pays almost all Miller's salary this year. Rams are all-in this year.
Click to expand...
Weird for Denver because they're 4 and 4 and a long way from being out of the playoff chase.
 
Gandolf said:
Weird for Denver because they're 4 and 4 and a long way from being out of the playoff chase.
Click to expand...

i think they watched the offense struggle against a Washington defense everyone has taken apart and said "holy shit we nowhere close to being a playoff team"!! they are right to trade away anything they can,, all their offensive talented being wasted with Fangio as head coach..
 
2daBank said:
i think we might be learning some the things i said early in the season that might have sounded silly at the time might not have been so crazy! i dunno if anyone else ready to say it yet but pats sure look like a playoff team to me! on same note think we seeing some those issues i had with chargers popping up more and more, thought it was abundantly clear they were out coached yet again and Herbert struggling to cover up all the warts, 3rd and 4th down magic doesnt work vs good teams!

am i still crazy that Fields just might turn out to be good? (if he can stay alive that is, kid takes more hits than any qb i can recall). what a shock with Nagy away from the team it was the best he looked and best the offense had played! crazy the offense finally has a decent showing and the d gets destroyed! niners scored on like 7 straight possessions in the 2nd half!!! busting off one big play after another with the run and passing game! Id fire Nagy today before he can get back with the team and do any more damage to Fields!!
Click to expand...
Said this about fields yesterday before the game. That D has been shredded last couple weeks in a row. Really missing khalil mack disrupting everything
 
mcculran said:
Said this about fields yesterday before the game. That D has been shredded last couple weeks in a row. Really missing khalil mack disrupting everything
Click to expand...

i didnt hold the tampa game against them much, figured Brady would be out for blood after bears were last team he looked bad against last year! not sure why i didnt play debo props other than not trusting jimmy g? i used him a bunch in dfs so just a overlook on my part, figured he would shred them. Mitchell going for damn near 10 yards a pop was the thing that really surprised me, certainly didnt see that coming, a good game sure, but every time he got ball in second half it went for another 1st down! even at the end when bears knew they were gonna run!!
 
2daBank said:
i didnt hold the tampa game against them much, figured Brady would be out for blood after bears were last team he looked bad against last year! not sure why i didnt play debo props other than not trusting jimmy g? i used him a bunch in dfs so just a overlook on my part, figured he would shred them. Mitchell going for damn near 10 yards a pop was the thing that really surprised me, certainly didnt see that coming, a good game sure, but every time he got ball in second half it went for another 1st down! even at the end when bears knew they were gonna run!!
Click to expand...
Tyler Lockett for the win...holy shit dude went off.
 
Big daddy naught said:
Evans is out. Yeah. Schedule is easy the rest of way and have a big cushion so gotta hope he can make it back for me playoffs but not sure he will
Click to expand...

ya'll in the playoffs regardless unless tannenhill turns into a real pumpkin which i dont think he will. Even if they go 3-6 rest of the way that would mean colts have to go 7-2! That aint happening as i see 5 games they easily could lose, they damn sure losing 2-3 of those 5 then knowing Wentz they will lose one they should win. Dunno how colts lost yesterday, well i do know but it still redic, Wentz being wentz.. of course ya'll good as finished in playoffs unless Henry can get back for them!! Kinda a bummer, they were starting to look like the best team in the AFC even if i didnt believe it!! id argue bills shoulda won that game but either way it was still down to the wire game anyone could have won. there not a guy out there who can come close to what henry gave them, it never happen since it has became a qb award but id argue Henry was the MVP!! not sure how he only worth a point or 2 on the spread?
 
A couple of things on yesterday, then some numbers.

I learned yesterday that the whole ‘dream killer’ game holds more weight in college than in the NFL. By all rights, Seattle should not have done what they did to the Jags yesterday. Their season ended when Russ went down and, to their credit, they then came out and fought that next week. But their season was still over, it was time to lay down.

There are still five teams with at least two more wins than Seattle, another with one more (Carolina), and yet another with one fewer loss (although technically that team is SF and Seattle has beaten them). Still, this team is not going to the playoffs. They’re two games under .500 and that is AFTER yesterday’s win. You can make some business decisions now, Seattle.

And yet, they crushed Jax. Now, I bet the Jags yesterday for reasons other than this, but this was definitely one of them. Point being, maybe it’s because of coaching, maybe it’s because these guy’s are pros, but betting on teams that don’t really have a history of quitting on the season to quit on the season, at home, is probably not wise.

Conversely, and I know this will sound reactionary, and I know they won’t do it, but good lord the Jags needs to fire Urban Meyer. That is what you come up with out of the bye? You had two weeks to prepare, and Geno Smith did whatever he wanted against you? Look, I’m sure Urban will say all the right things, but that team simply wasn’t prepared for that game.

GENO SMITH WENT 20/25 with two TDs and no turnovers. What the fuck. Anyway, Jax sucks and I was someone who said, other than overseas, this team may not win a game until December. And I’d like to revert to that statement now, please.

This is also going to sound strange, but there are a lot of games I don’t take a ton from yesterday, outside of injury.

Indy/Tenny: I said earlier that I didn’t understand this line move, and I really didn’t. I didn’t bet it though because of the move so good job by the books. But this team is a bad matchup for Indy. Doesn’t mean I won’t bet on them going forward, though. Problem here, beyond the Derek Henry injury for the Titans, is the injuries for the Colts. They lost a member of their DL for the season and TY Hilton will be out this week with a concussion. Terrible spot for NY, though.

Jets/Cincy: This was a huge sandwich spot for Cincy, they have Cleveland coming in this week and just came off Balty. This was basically the Titans/Jets game all over again except I didn’t take advantage of it. The good news, though is that—as someone who likes to bet against the Jets—Indy got a ton of tape on this Mike White character. The Jets are also doing a ton of shuffling on the OL right now thanks to injury and they may not have their LT George Fant this week. I don't think this game does anything for Cincy other than what it did for Tennessee, focuses them for their next game.

Philly/Detroit: Here is one thing I did take from this week, specifically. One: Nick Sirianni seems to have finally decided that it’s OK if you also run the football. It only took eight weeks, but son of a bitch, the guy seems to get that there are two parts to an offensive game plan. The Eagles ran the ball 46 times yesterday. That is not a joke. They ran for 236 yards. Hurts barely even needed to throw. Yes, it was the Lions, but imagine if Sirianni figures out how to balance an offensive game plan. No, I mean that, can you imagine it, I can't because I haven't seen it. But it sounds pretty sweet. Two: There is definitely something to the heartbreaking loss theory. Because, as has been said above, Detroit left it all in LA last week. There were flags on this heading into the game, kudos to those who saw them—I was not one of those people, but congrats to you.

SF/Chicago: Man, Press had a great bet on this over yesterday and I should have tailed it. As also mentioned above, Chicago just may be able to start helping you get to some totals now. Fields looks like he’s starting to internalize the playbook and slow the game down a bit. It’s fun.

AZ/GB: One of these teams is getting healthier. One of them is not. I think you can guess which is which.

Pitt/Cleveland: Speaking of health, one of these teams is also getting worse in terms of injuries. I’ll give you a hint, it is not Pittsburgh. Cleveland loses an OL yesterday for at least a few weeks, they still have secondary problems. Baker actually played better in some ways yesterday than I thought he would. But I think Cincy should throw all day on this team.

Atl/Car: I think it was mentioned above, but Atlanta for as good as they’ve looked lately, may be a different team without Ridley. Personally, I’m going to tread very carefully on Atlanta. Likewise, assuming Darnold is out for a week or two with the concussion, no way I can play this team. Of course, this is the NFL where player safety—hahahahahaha, what’s that?—really isn’t a huge consideration so maybe he goes this week. He shouldn’t, but Jones shouldn’t have played for the Giants after his concussion and he was magically ready to go so who knows. Also, McCaffrery is really close to coming back. Can they gut out a win without a QB? Have they already done that a couple of times this year with Darnold under center?

LAR/Hou: I took nothing from this game. That said, there’s a rumor Tyrod may be back this week for the Texans.

TB/NO: Oddly, for a game that was won by a backup, and for a team that now has a pretty serious QB question mark, I didn’t take a lot from this game either. NO seems to have a good read on Brady. They owed their fans this win from the playoffs last year. It is what it is, I expect TB to be fine.

LAC/NE: I guess if I took anything here other than that I lost money it's that there are still ways to make Herbert look lost. Dallas did it earlier this year to a degree and NE has now done it to this guy twice. Honestly, part of the reason I even played LA was because I thought Herbert would have taken that last loss as a challenge and focused on his growth against a Bellicheat defense. Maybe he did, but it definitely didn’t work and now I feel like NE owns him until further notice. That said, against bad to average teams, I'm still betting the Chargers. Also, NE is pretty much the team a lot of us thought they’d be this year getting their defense back. They don’t need a lot from their offense so they can let Jones learn so long as he’s good with the ball and gets them 14-20 points. Also, they seem like a better road team than a home team.

Denver/Wash: I feel like Denver just officially quit on the year by trading Von Miller. I don’t know how that locker room sees it any other way. I hate them this week. Bad spot, good team in Dallas. I get that it’s -9, but I hate them this week. That said, found money in that Dallas win last night for the Cowboys. Could be a bit of a letdown spot this week playing out of conference. Thing is, they don’t have anybody scary on deck, their next game is Atlanta, also at home. So it’s tough to make the argument they’ll look past Denver. Conversely, I think this is the week Dallas starts thinking they have a realistic shot at HFA in the playoffs. Yes, AZ, LAR, and GB all have one more win, but Dallas has a game in-hand, and Dallas only has maybe two tough road games left, (@KC in two weeks, and @NO). Other than that, everything else is the NFC East save the Raiders and Arizona, both at home. And that AZ game could seal it for them.

That's it for individual games, some fun numbers in a bit.
 
2daBank said:
ya'll in the playoffs regardless unless tannenhill turns into a real pumpkin which i dont think he will. Even if they go 3-6 rest of the way that would mean colts have to go 7-2! That aint happening as i see 5 games they easily could lose, they damn sure losing 2-3 of those 5 then knowing Wentz they will lose one they should win. Dunno how colts lost yesterday, well i do know but it still redic, Wentz being wentz.. of course ya'll good as finished in playoffs unless Henry can get back for them!! Kinda a bummer, they were starting to look like the best team in the AFC even if i didnt believe it!! id argue bills shoulda won that game but either way it was still down to the wire game anyone could have won. there not a guy out there who can come close to what henry gave them, it never happen since it has became a qb award but id argue Henry was the MVP!! not sure how he only worth a point or 2 on the spread?
Click to expand...
AP and mcnichols will be serviceable, and I’m sure they add another veteran maybe look into Gurley but Obv it’ll be a huge drop off. Prob see a lot more short passes to the Wrs
 
Big daddy naught said:
AP and mcnichols will be serviceable, and I’m sure they add another veteran maybe look into Gurley but Obv it’ll be a huge drop off. Prob see a lot more short passes to the Wrs
Click to expand...

Sort of makes you think about the under this week, no? If you're the Rams, aren't you daring them to run the ball? Take away Brown, force Tannehill to check into runs, into checkdowns, figure you'll put up 13+ by halftime and have a lead, just sort of grind them into a loss.

There will be other teams that Tenny will be able to beat without Henry just fine. But this Rams defense is good enough, if the gameplan is solid, this thing feels like 23-13. 27-13, something like that.
 
Big daddy naught said:
AP and mcnichols will be serviceable, and I’m sure they add another veteran maybe look into Gurley but Obv it’ll be a huge drop off. Prob see a lot more short passes to the Wrs
Click to expand...

Most run games I think you can plug and play backs for most part, browns even ran well without Chubb and hunt. Don’t think the same can be said for king Henry, he is a game changer. Not only does he control the game but fear of him is what makes brown able to be so open to run after the catch! Can’t imagine linebackers biting up on play action with whomever they have back there going forward. We gonna learn a whole bunch bout tannenhill cause those huge windows he used to throwing into gonna be a lot tighter! He has some great wrs on outside when they healthy so he needs to step up. What gonna be real problematic is Henry keeps the defense off the field for long stretches, the more they out there the more bad things gonna happen!
 
Ronald jones is probably available and would make a lot of sense in tenn rn, I’d love Mack but no way indy deals him within the division. Could see them target a guy like Carlos Hyde too.
 
Joe Public said:
Sort of makes you think about the under this week, no? If you're the Rams, aren't you daring them to run the ball? Take away Brown, force Tannehill to check into runs, into checkdowns, figure you'll put up 13+ by halftime and have a lead, just sort of grind them into a loss.

There will be other teams that Tenny will be able to beat without Henry just fine. But this Rams defense is good enough, if the gameplan is solid, this thing feels like 23-13. 27-13, something like that.
Click to expand...
Bad spot to begin w for titans, now Obv way worse but I actually think they open it up and throw more in this one. They will be short at rb I can’t see AP being ready and Jeremy isn’t a 20-25 carry guy I expect a few deep shots and then trying to get the ball out quick and use the short passing game as their “run”. As a fan I want no part of playing this game bc I do think the rams will score and it’s not a game tenn needs per say
 
Joe Public said:
A couple of things on yesterday, then some numbers.

I learned yesterday that the whole ‘dream killer’ game holds more weight in college than in the NFL. By all rights, Seattle should not have done what they did to the Jags yesterday. Their season ended when Russ went down and, to their credit, they then came out and fought that next week. But their season was still over, it was time to lay down.

There are still five teams with at least two more wins than Seattle, another with one more (Carolina), and yet another with one fewer loss (although technically that team is SF and Seattle has beaten them). Still, this team is not going to the playoffs. They’re two games under .500 and that is AFTER yesterday’s win. You can make some business decisions now, Seattle.

And yet, they crushed Jax. Now, I bet the Jags yesterday for reasons other than this, but this was definitely one of them. Point being, maybe it’s because of coaching, maybe it’s because these guy’s are pros, but betting on teams that don’t really have a history of quitting on the season to quit on the season, at home, is probably not wise.

Conversely, and I know this will sound reactionary, and I know they won’t do it, but good lord the Jags needs to fire Urban Meyer. That is what you come up with out of the bye? You had two weeks to prepare, and Geno Smith did whatever he wanted against you? Look, I’m sure Urban will say all the right things, but that team simply wasn’t prepared for that game.

GENO SMITH WENT 20/25 with two TDs and no turnovers. What the fuck. Anyway, Jax sucks and I was someone who said, other than overseas, this team may not win a game until December. And I’d like to revert to that statement now, please.

This is also going to sound strange, but there are a lot of games I don’t take a ton from yesterday, outside of injury.

Indy/Tenny: I said earlier that I didn’t understand this line move, and I really didn’t. I didn’t bet it though because of the move so good job by the books. But this team is a bad matchup for Indy. Doesn’t mean I won’t bet on them going forward, though. Problem here, beyond the Derek Henry injury for the Titans, is the injuries for the Colts. They lost a member of their DL for the season and TY Hilton will be out this week with a concussion. Terrible spot for NY, though.

Jets/Cincy: This was a huge sandwich spot for Cincy, they have Cleveland coming in this week and just came off Balty. This was basically the Titans/Jets game all over again except I didn’t take advantage of it. The good news, though is that—as someone who likes to bet against the Jets—Indy got a ton of tape on this Mike White character. The Jets are also doing a ton of shuffling on the OL right now thanks to injury and they may not have their LT George Fant this week. I don't think this game does anything for Cincy other than what it did for Tennessee, focuses them for their next game.

Philly/Detroit: Here is one thing I did take from this week, specifically. One: Nick Sirianni seems to have finally decided that it’s OK if you also run the football. It only took eight weeks, but son of a bitch, the guy seems to get that there are two parts to an offensive game plan. The Eagles ran the ball 46 times yesterday. That is not a joke. They ran for 236 yards. Hurts barely even needed to throw. Yes, it was the Lions, but imagine if Sirianni figures out how to balance an offensive game plan. No, I mean that, can you imagine it, I can't because I haven't seen it. But it sounds pretty sweet. Two: There is definitely something to the heartbreaking loss theory. Because, as has been said above, Detroit left it all in LA last week. There were flags on this heading into the game, kudos to those who saw them—I was not one of those people, but congrats to you.

SF/Chicago: Man, Press had a great bet on this over yesterday and I should have tailed it. As also mentioned above, Chicago just may be able to start helping you get to some totals now. Fields looks like he’s starting to internalize the playbook and slow the game down a bit. It’s fun.

AZ/GB: One of these teams is getting healthier. One of them is not. I think you can guess which is which.

Pitt/Cleveland: Speaking of health, one of these teams is also getting worse in terms of injuries. I’ll give you a hint, it is not Pittsburgh. Cleveland loses an OL yesterday for at least a few weeks, they still have secondary problems. Baker actually played better in some ways yesterday than I thought he would. But I think Cincy should throw all day on this team.

Atl/Car: I think it was mentioned above, but Atlanta for as good as they’ve looked lately, may be a different team without Ridley. Personally, I’m going to tread very carefully on Atlanta. Likewise, assuming Darnold is out for a week or two with the concussion, no way I can play this team. Of course, this is the NFL where player safety—hahahahahaha, what’s that?—really isn’t a huge consideration so maybe he goes this week. He shouldn’t, but Jones shouldn’t have played for the Giants after his concussion and he was magically ready to go so who knows. Also, McCaffrery is really close to coming back. Can they gut out a win without a QB? Have they already done that a couple of times this year with Darnold under center?

LAR/Hou: I took nothing from this game. That said, there’s a rumor Tyrod may be back this week for the Texans.

TB/NO: Oddly, for a game that was won by a backup, and for a team that now has a pretty serious QB question mark, I didn’t take a lot from this game either. NO seems to have a good read on Brady. They owed their fans this win from the playoffs last year. It is what it is, I expect TB to be fine.

LAC/NE: I guess if I took anything here other than that I lost money it's that there are still ways to make Herbert look lost. Dallas did it earlier this year to a degree and NE has now done it to this guy twice. Honestly, part of the reason I even played LA was because I thought Herbert would have taken that last loss as a challenge and focused on his growth against a Bellicheat defense. Maybe he did, but it definitely didn’t work and now I feel like NE owns him until further notice. That said, against bad to average teams, I'm still betting the Chargers. Also, NE is pretty much the team a lot of us thought they’d be this year getting their defense back. They don’t need a lot from their offense so they can let Jones learn so long as he’s good with the ball and gets them 14-20 points. Also, they seem like a better road team than a home team.

Denver/Wash: I feel like Denver just officially quit on the year by trading Von Miller. I don’t know how that locker room sees it any other way. I hate them this week. Bad spot, good team in Dallas. I get that it’s -9, but I hate them this week. That said, found money in that Dallas win last night for the Cowboys. Could be a bit of a letdown spot this week playing out of conference. Thing is, they don’t have anybody scary on deck, their next game is Atlanta, also at home. So it’s tough to make the argument they’ll look past Denver. Conversely, I think this is the week Dallas starts thinking they have a realistic shot at HFA in the playoffs. Yes, AZ, LAR, and GB all have one more win, but Dallas has a game in-hand, and Dallas only has maybe two tough road games left, (@KC in two weeks, and @NO). Other than that, everything else is the NFC East save the Raiders and Arizona, both at home. And that AZ game could seal it for them.

That's it for individual games, some fun numbers in a bit.
Click to expand...

I had a sneaky suspicion Philly was gonna run more with Boston Scott, I’d been happier if they didn’t let Howard steal a bunch of carries and a few tds. Could just be they didn’t like sanders? I dunno, kid seemed talented and the few times they let him run this year he had success. Scott was a beast last time he got the chance so fully expected that to happen again.

Far as titsns/colts im not sure why it such a bad matchup for colts? They mostly controlled that game without Wentz doing stupid ass Wentz things to blow it. I’d prob bet colts laying less than 3 at home to then 10 more times if ya let me, except for the fact Wentz really gets on my nerves! Matchup wise tho Indy was solid against Henry before he got hurt and they play mostly zone which not exactly the best d for tannenhill and the play action game to thrive against.

I agree 100% Meyer was not the right guy for this job, the longer they keep him the more they holding back progress imo.

I think fields could be a pretty good qb, the problem is Nagy will be back sooner than later and I wouldn’t trust this offense when he back in control. Speaking of firing ppl don’t know how bears front office could watch how much more competent they looked with nagy at home w Rona to realize he the problem? Get rid of this guy already and promote whomever it was who designed and called yesterday’s game!


I blame Ridley for losing all my Pitts props, mfer decides right before the game he depressed? And everyone gives him a pass cause poor babies mental fucjing health?!?!! Must be nice to live in a world where ya don’t have to just suck it up and do your job like the rest of us if we want to eat!!! Panthers were able to bracket pitts all game and use their best corner on him and not pay any price thanks to Ridley being a pussy, just go away then, don’t fuck everyone by acting like you gonna play all week then not show up for your team! Selfish cock sucker can get a pass from all the cuck media but not me. If it really that bad then make it known before game day!!!

Still reading the rest, gotta make dinner tho!!
 
Big daddy naught said:
Bad spot to begin w for titans, now Obv way worse but I actually think they open it up and throw more in this one. They will be short at rb I can’t see AP being ready and Jeremy isn’t a 20-25 carry guy I expect a few deep shots and then trying to get the ball out quick and use the short passing game as their “run”. As a fan I want no part of playing this game bc I do think the rams will score and it’s not a game tenn needs per say
Click to expand...

Right, that's it, if you're the Rams, you play the pass first, dare them to beat you on the ground. I agree, in theory they open it up more—but if I'm LA, I say, 'please do.'

I also totally agree with you on this game being one you don't need. It's out of conference, you are way ahead in the division. Honestly, if I'm Tenny, I want to get out of this game with no injuries, I don't really care what the score is.
 
2daBank said:
I had a sneaky suspicion Philly was gonna run more with Boston Scott, I’d been happier if they didn’t let Howard steal a bunch of carries and a few tds. Could just be they didn’t like sanders? I dunno, kid seemed talented and the few times they let him run this year he had success. Scott was a beast last time he got the chance so fully expected that to happen again.
Click to expand...

It's so weird you say that, because I get a similar feeling with Sanders and I just don't get it. I like both those backs, but for some reason, they really didn't seem to want Sanders to get touches. But if that's all it was, great, let's see a balanced offense from Philly the rest of the way. Also, I wouldn't get my hopes up with this team. Terrible matchup for them this week and, to me, that line is at least two points off. I'm honestly not sure why they'd be asking for Charger money right now. But that line should be 4.5 imo.

2daBank said:
Far as titsns/colts im not sure why it such a bad matchup for colts? They mostly controlled that game without Wentz doing stupid ass Wentz things to blow it. I’d prob bet colts laying less than 3 at home to then 10 more times if ya let me, except for the fact Wentz really gets on my nerves! Matchup wise tho Indy was solid against Henry before he got hurt and they play mostly zone which not exactly the best d for tannenhill and the play action game to thrive against.
Click to expand...

It's a bad matchup because Tenny knows how to play Indy and is built in a way that gives the Colts fits. In their last four games vs. Indy, the only time Tenny scored fewer than 30+ was their first meeting this season, where they scored 25 and they still won by nine. Also, in all of those games, Henry had over 100 yards, including one game where he ran for 178. Indy had a similar problem with a similarly constructed Batly team last year (although Balty didn't have a 100 yard rusher in that game, but they still controlled the game) —and of course, they lost to Balty this year as well. Teams that can go heavy on Indy seem to be able to work that defense. Thing is, it wouldn't even be a huge problem for them but for the fact that Tenny is in their division. Because outside of Baltimore, you don't really have another team in the AFC that is built like that. I feel like Indy is trying to build a team to beat KC—which is smart—and just hoping that when they play Tenny, they can split the season series and that solves the problem. I don't even think that idea is bad, I just think it would work out better for them if this current iteration of the Titans wasn't in their division.
 
I wouldn’t be too fast to go bet the chargers. I agree about not getting hopes up with Philly but if they stick to that same game script vs Chargers they will run for 200+. I been fading Chargers for weeks and will continue to do so long as their “genius” coach continues playing this “please run all over us” defense he seems smitten with.

These analytic types crack me up, they a great tool but seems like most ppl that subscribe to them can’t be reasonable about it. There plenty of room in the gray area but most of them think it has to be all or nothing. I don’t care what it says about running the ball being less efficient than passing, when you invite teams to gash you for 6+ a carry and 200+ you gonna lose a whole bunch of games!!

I just looked at that line, Jfc you right it short, I was thinking I could at least get 3.5 in which case Eagles def be on my radar simply as a Chargers fade not as a ringing endorsement of Philly. Less than 3 makes it a really tough bet. I still wouldn’t play Chargers tho cause i understand why they put it there!
 
guaranteeed said:
Titans should trade for a receiver

They need to go full spread now, no one can replace henry, you pray hes healthy by january, trade for cooks or d jack and let the tannathrill cook
Click to expand...

That would certainly be a interesting way to go about it. I dunno if they have that kind of faith in the tannenhill tho?
 
Also, before I forget, I heard this before Sunday, but it would still hold true if it's, you know, true. Jared Goff has never won a game in the NFL without being coached by Sean McVey.
 
guaranteeed said:
Titans should trade for a receiver

They need to go full spread now, no one can replace henry, you pray hes healthy by january, trade for cooks or d jack and let the tannathrill cook
Click to expand...
I don’t hate that idea. Julio being hurt hasn’t helped, Reynolds has been a bust. D jax could prob be had pretty cheap and is still a feel threat
 
Why do browns seemingly refuse to trade OBJ? They should have traded him multiple times yet continue holding on to him just so he can rot away! Is it a thing where they being spiteful? At this point they have to realize the shit ain’t working and never will.

I would think they could at least get a mid round draft pick, some kind of useful special teamer, or even a backup something! Wouldn’t any of that be better than this guy who not only doesn’t produce anything but actually makes your team worse as every target he gets could be a target baker has a chance to complete to anyone else! I don’t get it.
 
Big daddy naught said:
I don’t hate that idea. Julio being hurt hasn’t helped, Reynolds has been a bust. D jax could prob be had pretty cheap and is still a feel threat
Click to expand...

Can tannenhill hit the deep ball? I seriously don’t know as I don’t recall ever seeing him throw a ball 45-50 yards in the air. Seems like most their big passing plays are a product of YAC, Brown one of/if not the best run after catch guy in the league!

Julio always hurt, they shoulda known that when they made the trade. Great fit if he was ever healthy but we seen this way too many times, odds are this hammy will be a problem rest of the year!!! I suppose a speed burner would be the best choice to open up the underneath for Brown running the crossers, anything to open up the area the threat of Henry took care of before, doesn’t much matter how they do it, just needs to get done!!!
 
Wrote this in the in-game thread but thought it was pretty clever
analogy (as I often do think highly of myself, lol), so though I’d share it here :)


I think mahomes has gotten way too caught up in his own hype, he doesn’t want check downs anymore, he looking for highlight plays on every throw. It kinda like a baseball player who starts trying to hit home runs and goes into a awful slump. they have to get back to trying to drive the ball the other way and let the home runs come from simply making good contact. The more you try to hit a home run the more you strike out. Same thing here, if mahomes would just be content taking the underneath stuff the deep shots will open back up. If he continues to force things he will continue making these killer mistakes.
 
2daBank said:
Wrote this in the in-game thread but thought it was pretty clever
analogy (as I often do think highly of myself, lol), so though I’d share it here :)


I think mahomes has gotten way too caught up in his own hype, he doesn’t want check downs anymore, he looking for highlight plays on every throw. It kinda like a baseball player who starts trying to hit home runs and goes into a awful slump. they have to get back to trying to drive the ball the other way and let the home runs come from simply making good contact. The more you try to hit a home run the more you strike out. Same thing here, if mahomes would just be content taking the underneath stuff the deep shots will open back up. If he continues to force things he will continue making these killer mistakes.
Click to expand...
From what i saw, it’s a little of that and a little bit of flat out poor decision making/defense recognition. He checked down a good amount, and picked the deep zone apart at times…..then other times he threw it right to an underneath linebacker like he was invisible. In fairness, the pick he had was tipped (although one could argue he shouldnt have thrown it). But there were at least two other throws that should have been picked and a couple others that could have been. Is this the same o-line they had last year? Looked like the giants were getting home, or at least moving the pocket, with 3/4 guys. Most time they had a spy on mahomes (which is why i lost my mahomes over rush yds prop), and they were just rattled. Giants pretty much put their best corner on kelce, with safety over the top most of the time, then bracketed hill. Pretty good recipe actually, and giants should have won.

If chiefs keep this up, discount double check will ram it up their ass next week in arrowhead.
 
mcculran said:
From what i saw, it’s a little of that and a little bit of flat out poor decision making/defense recognition. He checked down a good amount, and picked the deep zone apart at times…..then other times he threw it right to an underneath linebacker like he was invisible. In fairness, the pick he had was tipped (although one could argue he shouldnt have thrown it). But there were at least two other throws that should have been picked and a couple others that could have been. Is this the same o-line they had last year? Looked like the giants were getting home, or at least moving the pocket, with 3/4 guys. Most time they had a spy on mahomes (which is why i lost my mahomes over rush yds prop), and they were just rattled. Giants pretty much put their best corner on kelce, with safety over the top most of the time, then bracketed hill. Pretty good recipe actually, and giants should have won.

If chiefs keep this up, discount double check will ram it up their ass next week in arrowhead.
Click to expand...

He threw more passes at or behind line of scrimmage than he ever has in a game before, kinda makes his completion percentage look even worse!! most of those were designed tho, whenever he took longer drops it seemed like there were a number of times kelce was open and he didn’t take it. I’ve heard ppl say teams are taking kelce away but last night he was open a bunch of times where mahomes didn’t take it!! That has always been a big part the offense so I dunno why he seems to feel like every throw has to be a highlight reel play? Last year kelce caught 10+ balls seeming every week and he hasn’t reached that once this year!!

Far as packers go they gonna take kc apart I believe. They have really morphed into a very physical offense the last few years under lafluer, that is bad news for Kc! Hopefully pack defense gets those guys back, no idea how long they supposed to be out for? I guess not likely they be back although smith been out for quite awhile so maybe he getting close? If him and Alexander came off IL pack would boat race them imo. Even without ill take plus money on pack all day!
 
Far as the tip int goes a lot of these tipped picks ppl giving him a pass for are bad throws. Wtf was he doing throwing that jump pass shit in red zone where everything clustered up? Another case of him trying to make a highlight reel play! Gordon had no chance to catch that, then it hit someone in the face I think! None his guys could see that ball coming imo.

Feel like he gets this pass from basically everyone, I’m certainly not trying to say the kid aint great, the talent is undeniable but If we being honest before this year he was living a charmed life as all the crazy risk he was taking seemed to work! We were all fascinated with it so we ignored the fact it was a bunch of really bad choices. This year is simply the world balancing itself out to a degree, combined with the fact he won’t take the easy ones anymore.

Andy really needs to have a conversation with him about playing more within the structure of the offense! Problem here is Andy ego is just as big as mahomes And he loves the showtime offense!! Someone has to get them in check to a degree imo.
 
2daBank said:
Far as the tip int goes a lot of these tipped picks ppl giving him a pass for are bad throws. Wtf was he doing throwing that jump pass shit in red zone where everything clustered up? Another case of him trying to make a highlight reel play! Gordon had no chance to catch that, then it hit someone in the face I think! None his guys could see that ball coming imo.

Feel like he gets this pass from basically everyone, I’m certainly not trying to say the kid aint great, the talent is undeniable but If we being honest before this year he was living a charmed life as all the crazy risk he was taking seemed to work! We were all fascinated with it so we ignored the fact it was a bunch of really bad choices. This year is simply the world balancing itself out to a degree, combined with the fact he won’t take the easy ones anymore.

Andy really needs to have a conversation with him about playing more within the structure of the offense! Problem here is Andy ego is just as big as mahomes And he loves the showtime offense!! Someone has to get them in check to a degree imo.
Click to expand...
Pretty sure he was throwing to the WR in the back of the EZ and didn't really see the one in front that tipped it coming across, no way he throws it that hard from 5 yds out intentionally, and I know he throws it too hard at times. Two guys in the same line of fire shouldn't happen, even on a busted up play.
 
KJ said:
Pretty sure he was throwing to the WR in the back of the EZ and didn't really see the one in front that tipped it coming across, no way he throws it that hard from 5 yds out intentionally, and I know he throws it too hard at times. Two guys in the same line of fire shouldn't happen, even on a busted up play.
Click to expand...

maybe not but he really shouldnt be throwing blind jump passes in red zone either! just begging for something to go wrong! i keep seeing highlights of that nasty sidearm throw he made while running left, and yea it was super impressive and that one happened to work but that window he created was tiny, another pass that could have easily got tipped, the defenders hand was freaking inches from it!! im not suggesting he should totally stop being himself with the play ground football but wouldnt be the worst thing in the world if he pulled it back a little bit and only broke that shit out when they absolutely need it.
 
I promised some numbers, but a quick look at the standings, then some numbers.

We’re not exactly officially halfway done with the season, but we’re basically halfway done with the season.

The top teams are the top teams, nobody cares. But who can make us some money. Who’s undervalued or in a position to have a good second half.

AFC

New England
Some of this is recency bias, but also look at their division. There are only two teams there, really, and NE has already swept the Jets. They have one more game vs. Miami which ends up being a revenge spot. They also get Jax. So that’s two wins. They’ve also proven to be at least as good, if not a better, road team than they are at home. Who do they have road games with remaining? Carolina this week who may have no QB, Atlanta, and Indy. Entirely possible they go 2-1 there. They also get Cleveland at home next week which is a great time to play the Browns given all their injuries. Yes, they play the Bills twice, but their game against Tenny is at home and Henry won’t be there. This could easily be a ten win team.

Indy
Big two games for the Colts coming up here. Not because of who they play (the Jets & Jax at home), but two wins gets them back to .500 and back in the hunt. Very interesting thing about Indy though, after these two games, their schedule really turns for the worse. @Buffalo, TB, and then after their bye they have NE, @AZ, and the Raiders. They kind of have to win their next two.

Pittsburgh & Cleveland
BAgain, big games this week for both of these teams. A win for the Steelers gets them two games over .500 and will keep them one back for the division—unless both Cincy and Balty lose, then they’d be tied for the division. Big motivational spot for them this week, and they get the Lions at home next week. If Pittsburgh is going to have a shot, these next two games are should-wins that they need to actually win. It’s also a huge week for the Browns, and it comes at a bad time, but such is life. A win vs. Cincy this week moves them to 5-4, tied with the Bengals with a SU win against them (they would stay one win behind or one loss behind Balty though, however, they haven’t played them yet). A loss for the Browns this week, however, is a monster. They would fall below .500, two back of Cincy with a SU loss to them. They’d be in last in their division and in a really bad place if they want to make the playoffs. The other issue Cleveland has, tbh, is that other than getting Detroit at home in three weeks, their schedule really doesn't open up for them. It sucks.


KC and LAC
I’d argue the stakes are similar for KC and the Chargers. Given the news out of Vegas which will absolutely shake that team up, and given LV’s schedule, both KC and LA have a clear path to the division. However, the time for fucking around is over. KC wins this week and, even as bad as they’ve been, they’re back over .500 and at most only one game behind LV—with two games against them remaining. They also have two against Denver and one still with LA. As bad as KC has been, they absolutely control their own destiny. Too bad they’re not a very good football team, which you’ll see in the numbers below. LA, also has a big game this week, again, not because of who they play, but because of the standings. Win here and you’re back two two games over .500, again only one game back (at worst) of the Raiders, with a win over them already and a game remaining against them. Also, LA’s schedule is great, they have to go to Cincy, but until they play KC in Week 15, the only hard game they really have is maybe Minny at home. But if you donk it off vs. the Eagles, now you’re back to .500 with a minimum of five teams with more wins than you in the playoff race. LA needs to win this game this week.


NFC

Minny
This is a big week for Minny in a tough spot. Coming off a tough loss, you have go to Baltimore off a bye. Thing is, Minny ‘really’ needs a win here. The good teams in the NFC probably aren’t catchable. But, the wildcards should be. One will be taken by the west, either AZ or LAR. But then you’ve got room. There’s a real chance Carolina has neither Darnold nor CMC this week. If they lose to NE, and Minny wins, the only team ahead of the Vikings for another wildcard spot would be NO. A week this win also gets them back to .500. If you’re the Vikings, you can sell this team on having a shot—but only if they win this week. Conversely, if they lose this week, their next two are @LAC and back home for Green Bay. If they can’t get by Baltimore this week, it’s possible the wheels come off.

SF, Chicago, and Atlanta
I feel like these teams are all in the same position really. They’re two games under .500 (except Atlanta, they’re only one game under .500) and they are all at least three games back in the division. They have an outside shot at a wildcard—but only if they get hot, right now. So, the question becomes, of these three teams, does anybody think they have the roster right now to do that? Personally I say no, but SF does have back to back division games at home (AZ & LAR) which is an opportunity in a way. Chicago’s next five are all bad, save Detroit at home next week. And I’d like Atlanta more if Ridley was playing, but their next three are @NO, @Dallas, and NE. Yikes.

I’m also not going to pretend the Eagles have a shot at the playoffs. You’re welcome. But Fletcher Cox didn’t get traded today so there. Fly Eagles Fly.

Some numbers of where teams are right now:

Worst five in sacks allowed
  • Chicago (30)
  • Seattle
  • Denver
  • Tenny & Carolina tied at 24
  • Cleveland & Detroit tied at 23
This isn’t shocking for Chicago, and maybe not totally shocking for Seattle either, although now you have Geno back there so that can skew it. But after all that noise Russ and Seattle made in the offseason about fixing that problem, turns out they have, in fact, not fixed that problem.

Also interesting, you have three teams fighting for the playoffs in here in Tenny, Cleveland, and Carolina. Tough to see how that’s sustainable when you’re giving up three sacks per game. But maybe that’s an isolated stat, let’s see how it compares in context.

Sacks generated

Top 5 most generated sacks per game
  • Minny
  • LAR
  • Cleveland
  • Pitt
  • Carolina

Ah ha, there you see where it evens out for Carolina and Cleveland. Yes, they’re giving up sacks, but they’re also generating them. Which may give you a clue about how their totals are playing out. And let’s not sleep on the Vikings here. Even though they don’t have the most total sacks in the league (they miss out by one to the Rams) they’re generating the highest total per game in the league by a pretty decent margin. And only they and the Rams are averaging over three sacks generated per game.

Worst 5 sacks generated per game
  • KC
  • Atlanta
  • Miami
  • J’ville
  • Seattle

Talk about explaining your record. Interesting note here, who just misses this cut? Dallas. Which is something to look at for totals, methinks. Also, that KC is generating barely one sack per game, just ugly.

Let’s talk turnovers.

Top 5 in takeaways:
  • Buffalo (+13 still crushing the field here, which explains their margin of victory stat, imo)
  • GB & Indy (+8)
  • NO (+7 which explains some things, tbh)
  • LAR (+6)
  • AZ & Dallas (+5)

Also, both Buffalo and NO are doing this with one fewer game played, which kind of makes it even more impressive. On the other side of this …

Worst 5 in turnover giveaways
  • J’Ville (-11)
  • Jets (-10)
  • KC (-10)
  • Niners (-6)
Then you have a whole host of teams at -4 which isn’t good through eight games, but two bad games could really skew you here. What’s interesting to me in this is that if you just look at some kind of key stats, what jumps out at you is that Kansas City is a bad football team this year, only their lines are set as if they’re a favorite for HFA in the playoffs. These numbers suggest this team’s record is extremely accurate for who they are, imo. Also, I pulled these numbers ‘before’ KC’s game last night. In which they had another two turnovers and a Mahomes fumble that was almost a third.

Who can you count on for points?

Top 5 in points per play
  • LAR
  • TB
  • Arizona
  • Buffalo
  • Cincy
  • Dallas
Two things here, one Tampa is currently on the exact same points per play average pace this year that they finished with in 2020. So, just in case you think teams in this top tier can’t sustain this and this may fluctuate wildly. TB did exactly this last year for a whole year. But speaking of fluctuation, funny thing, the next team in this list? The Philadelphia Eagles. I’m going to say the Atlanta and Detroit games are really doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Birds on this. That and that there have been a couple of games, Dallas and Las Vegas, where yes they scored a lot, but it was after they were well out of the game. Still, it’s something to think about for totals.

Worst 5 in terms of points per play, a lot of these you can guess:
  • Chicago
  • Houston
  • Detroit
  • NYJ
  • Miami
  • Jax
  • Pitt
I included Pitt because all these teams above have an average PPP of under .300. Which, for the sake of comparison, 11 teams have a PPP average of over .4 with the Rams just below .5 and the Bucs right behind them. Point is, these teams just aren’t scoring.

We can do average scoring differential, but you can probably guess the top and bottom. Instead, how about all the teams who’s average scoring differential stays within three points either way. They are:
  • Denver (+2.5)
  • Indy
  • Vegas
  • Seattle
  • Philly
  • Minny
  • Carolina
  • Cleveland (+0.4)
  • SF (-0.4)
  • LAC
  • Pitt
  • KC (-2.1)

So, maybe … teaser teams?

And last, penalties (these are through MNF, unlike the rest above):

Top five most penalized teams

  • Philly (60)
  • TB (59)
  • Dallas (58)
  • Houston (57)
  • KC (56)
  • Tenny & Carolina (55)
  • Cleveland & NYG (54)

If you wonder how Tampa is here with the record they have, the majority of their penalties are false starts (11) and … defensive PI (10). Meanwhile, Dallas? Offensive holding (10) is their single greatest crime. Interestingly, a team who didn’t make this list but who holds more than any other team in the league? Minny. And the only team that has more PI calls than TB is SF, but only by one.

Top five least penalized
  • Rams
  • Cincy
  • Green Bay
  • Atlanta!! & NO
  • Indy
  • Balty
Hope this helps.
 
I believe the offense is frustrated with Mahomes, dude drank his own Kool-aid and is paying the price.

There is definitely something going on with him and Kelce.

Andy doesn't stop drama, he lets it get out of control. Did the same shit with the Birds.

Queefs got a stack of negative karma and it starts with the coach and QB.
 
Got a future before the season began on the Bills (posted) and I'm happy.

Team that scares me the most is the Fudge Packers with prime Pink Ribbon Rodgers who appears to have a vendetta with the league.

They have a definite SB feel about them.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

VirginiaCavs
VC's Week 17 Plays
Replies
15
Views
640
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Buccaneers vs. Lions Preview Article
Replies
0
Views
192
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VC's Sunday Plays
Replies
7
Views
367
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Week 8 Upsets Preview Article
Replies
0
Views
177
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Rams vs. Lions Preview Article
Replies
2
Views
237
VirginiaCavs
VirginiaCavs
Back
Top