Car/Atl - Panthers are in free fall and Atlanta has found something on offense with their three headed monster of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley. Atlanta has also won 5 of 6 vs Carolina. Eye test would say Atlanta but the Theory of Mediocre Teams says a correction is in order so its Panthers +3. Gotta roll with the ups and downs of mediocre teams. Things never go great for too long, and they never go awful forever. Its a corollary to the Week 2 Overreaction Theory.
Mia/Buf - Bills followed their inexplicable loss to Pittsburgh with a 35-0 rinsing of Miami. Bills again off an inexplicable loss, and again turn around to face Miami. Bad luck for Miami. Bills -14. It took awhile but Allen finally found a gear and lucky for us the Bills aren't afraid of going for the jugular even when the game seems safely in hand. They could've easily plunged it into the line on 3rd down from the 8 but no, they let their stud QB go around end for the front door cover.
SF/Chi - Niners on a 4 game losing streak and they're 4 point road faves? Ugh. No way I can back Fields and the total is too low to contemplate the under. Pass all the way around. The Bears let Jimmy G throw for over 300, Deebo goes wild and Mitchell gets over 100. Do we think they can do better in Pittsburgh next week against arguably a better group? The good news is the Bears might finally be able to contribute to some over plays.
Pit/Cle - The vibes are trending Pitts way. There's a revenge element too considering the Browns won two straight against Pittsburgh late last year, including in the playoffs. Both team got extra time to prepare and get healthier. The hook is too enticing, Pitt +3.5 Tomlin should've been made to pay for that stupid fake FG decision but the Browns receivers weren't up to the task, with several drops. Pretty hilarious fans here are arguing for a roughing the passer for their kicker, sorry but life never works that way because, you know, its the kicker. Browns punted on a 4th and 1 from their 49 late in the 3rd. Steelers took the punt at their 17 and within 3 plays where back at midfield, on their way to the game-winning TD. Landry fumbled at the Steeler 21 next drive, then they went out on downs at the Steelers 26 on the last drive. Pretty good passing day for Pitt as the Browns lost all kinds of secondary personnel during the game.
Phi/Det - Somebody has to win this one. Lions played their asses off last week, that usually doesn't happen two weeks in a row. Eagles lost Sanders, which could actually improve their chances. How does Hurts do with an early lead? They smashed Atlanta pretty hard. I can see them having a good week. Philly -3.5 My best call of the day as this one wasn't close. Lions will put in the effort on occasion but its only sporadic. Pretty easy to see they left it all on the field in LA the week before. For whatever reason the loss of Sanders only made the Eagles want to run more, go figure.
Ten/Indy - Two teams playing well right now. Indy generally does well against the Tits and with the series 0-1 so far this year I'm favoring the split. Indy -2.5 Thought this one was gonna come through after the hot start but the Titans are tough and Wentz ended up being Wentz. Henry finished the game but now it looks like he's done for the year. This makes the Titans a big unknown this week as their identity has been shattered. Playing the Rams doesn't help either.
Cin/NYJ - Woof, huge spread here and its being a long time since the Bengals were in this position. No way to tell how they'll respond off their huge effort last week. Jets are too putrid to back, so this is more of a teaser game for me. No surprise that the Bengals started flat after last weeks effort. But they appeared to be cruising to victory late and then blew an 11 point lead in the fourth quarter. It was a donut game for Cincy with the Browns up next week. They should bounce back and stay competitive. Jets have a decision to make now on White with Flacco ready to go next week. I would expect them to go with Delaware Joe and go right back into their losing ways on Thursday at Indy.
LAR/Hou - Rams have been handling their business, would be inclined to back them with Tyrod still not playing. But I can't lay 15.5 on the road. Another one to tease around. This has to be the bad beat of the week for Ram backers. Houston is a pain in the ass team. For weeks they've been reasonably competitive in the 1st half only to collapse in the 2nd half. This time they reversed it. I'm pretty well convinced they're intent on losing as many as possible, but they have an undercurrent of spirited play that pops up for a brief stretch each week. I guess the way to play them is to fade them first half, and if they somehow cover double up on a 2nd half fade, because its coming.
NE/SD - Last time we saw the Chargers they were getting their shit pushed in by the Ravens. They've had two weeks to think about this one. Pats got their second dose of the Jets vaccine so they should feel pretty good about themselves. A month ago I'd be saying -4 looks too light. I guess it still is. Chargers -4. This was a whiff. Pats took away Mike Williams and confused Herbert all game. Expecting the Pats to run on the Chargers but they only got 3.6 per carry. They did just enough offensively with 4 FGs and a TD and got the big pick 6 that set up the win.
Jax/Sea - Ugh, there's just no way I can get interested in this one. I'll have the Sunday Ticket four block up for the late games and I may tape a piece of paper onto the screen just so my eyes can't accidently catch a glimpse of Geno at QB. Pass. Didn't watch but the stats suggest Urban figured out a way to make Geno Smith look like a competent QB. Does Russell come back Week 10? With 2 weeks to retool they could look a lot better the 2nd half of the year.
Was/Den - Broncos step up in class the last four weeks has been a disaster. In horse racing we say they're dropping into appropriate company this week. The return of Jeudy would then be like taking the blinkers off? Denver -3. Pretty ugly game all around. Redskins passed up a FG on their opening drive and failed on fourth and 1 in the redzone, then justified the decision as Blewitt kicked it into his lineman on their next drive. He missed another one that would've given them a 13-10 lead in the 4th before Teddy finally started throwing to his pretty good WR trio on the game winning TD drive. The game for Heinecke was encapsulated on his last pass, a "hail mary" that flew over the end zone by about 8 yards. If Teddy can trust his receivers the Broncos could be good, but he was checking it down too much. Sutton, Jeudy and Patrick is a pretty good trio IMO.
Tampa/NO - OK, we all saw that Saints/Seahawks craptastic game on Monday night. Somehow the Saints are 4-2. But I think Brady & the Bucs had their ears prick up on the Thursday night results. I think the Bucs get it done but 4.5 seems a lot. The under 50 looks better to me. Seeing 24-20 type game. Honestly I thought Jameis would start throwing picks to his old team today, letting the Bucs play a little conservative and run it more. When he got hurt the Saints offense kicked up a gear with Siemian, then Brady had to play catchup and he is more than capable of putting up points in that scenario. So I'll take the L but I don't feel bad about it. Going forward the Saints have some tough matchups in their next five. Tampa should be fine, hopefully AB is back after the bye and they have two NFC East dregs to pummel out of the break.
Dall/Minn - Line has pushed to -3 for Minny at some books. Implication is Prescott will not be able to go. I don't know. They Cowboys line is back at full strength.....how much would Prescott really need to move around? What's better, a statue Prescott or a healthy Cooper Rush? No sense guessing anything until game time. Never would've written that story. What a game. Dallas seems to have some magic this year. And they get Dak back next week and Demarcus Lawrence in a couple of weeks.
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