Week 8 NFL Discussion

[BJPLAYER]

Pats line inflated. Their defense is overrated, line should be -3.5 at the most.

i am a pats fan so take what i say with a grain of salt....pats have allowed the 4th least amount of points in the league 107 so they aren't that over rated, and one of those teams is philly who will allow more as the season progresses, the pats do frustrate me with their love for the zone when i think they should be in man coverage more but i'm pretty sure bill knows more than i do, they are real good in the red zone and with their offense you can make a case they are the most complete team or at least top 3....the points worry me only because big mouth fatso and his fatso brother seem to bring their best when they play the pats....mccoy probably out and even if he plays the pats will hit him on every play and he will be useless in the 2nd half,they have no passing game and i think the pats will stuff the run....i'll probably play a little on the under and throw the pats into a tease.....good luck

 

[emkee]

Pats have zero pass rush.

 

[BJPLAYER]

one other point....the eye test does not work on the pats d, you watch the game and you say man they suck on d today and at the end of the game the opponent just hasn't scored that many points and you say to yourself "it sure looks like they should have scored more than 17" "or 20"

 

[BJPLAYER]

Pats have zero pass rush.

we don't know that for sure as we have blitzed so little this year,they are constantly dropping back in zone coverage and rushing 3 or 4, i suspect they will blitz more as the season goes on but who knows

 

[BJPLAYER]

all that said a wise man would probably take what will be 6.5 or 7 by gametime

 

[BJPLAYER]

pats 6-1 against the number, only spread loss to buff at gillette

 

[mrpickem]

delrio was in jax late yesterday watching son qb gator win

winston coming around although still mistake prone

gimme

tb
tb under
ne
ne over

pats 9-2-1 ats last 12 @ Rich and over 4 of L5 @ Rich

 

[emkee]

Pats ML is the only play in this game, imo. Could not lay more than 3.

All the 1pm games are a little treacherous.

 

[Two Utes]

I think the entire card is treacherous. Tough week for sure.

 

[mrpickem]

I think the entire card is treacherous. Tough week for sure.

that's an understatement...NFL always treacherous but it's sooooo much fun! Gotta have action opcorn:

 

[mrpickem]

Rex and Rob got to be dumbfounded as they are all over Brady, stuffed run game, keep him in unfavorable down/distance but still Brady moves around a little and strikes with 2 first qtr TD passes...one bomb.
8-11 171 yds 2 TD 5-5 on 3rd down. :rofl:

 

[cogenman]

Raiders baby 6-2. 5-0 on the road. Derek Carr possibly a MVP candidate. 17 TD's and 3 INT's at the midway mark. I'd take that for the second half of the season too.

The defense, although they do suck, can make some plays. Especially in OT when Janikowski missed the long FG that set up TB close to midfield. They held. Fucking flags though. That needs to be cleaned up. 200 yards of free offense for TB due to stupid penalties.

This next week is a critical game with Denver, at home. These are the games we usually lose, like when KC came to town a few weeks ago. They have to figure out this Denver defense which I think is probably the second best defensive unit behind Minnesota.

 

[Tito]

Yeah Oak has got to clean up those penalties, against a decent team they would lose that game. Carr is legit though

 

[D-Woww]

you really just cant bet against the pats. i dont care what your power rankings say, what the "true line" should be, if you see "value" in the dog, etc. you just cant do it, they continue to cover spreads

 

[cogenman]

Tom Brady on a fuck you NFL mission. And he's thrown 12 TD's to 0 Int's. He missed the first four games but he should be in the MVP discussion too. With Brady QB'ing they've scored 35, 35, 27, and 41 points. The team total hit in all of them except that 27 point game where it lost by a .5 point due to the kicker missing an xpt. I had that over too :hang:

 

[emkee]

you really just cant bet against the pats. i dont care what your power rankings say, what the "true line" should be, if you see "value" in the dog, etc. you just cant do it, they continue to cover spreads

They have played no-one and really don't play anyone for the rest of the season.

This team never lets down and executes their gameplan near perfectly every week.

Hags game in Week 10 will be interesting, Pats have no pass rush which is the Hags biggest weakness.

 

[nbafan88]

Was the vikings opening at -6 a fair line?

 

[nbafan88]

you really just cant bet against the pats. i dont care what your power rankings say, what the "true line" should be, if you see "value" in the dog, etc. you just cant do it, they continue to cover spreads

Lines can only be made so high or so low. If books had the option, they would probably have not put out a line on yesterday's game tbh... playing contrarian doesn't always work. It was a strong line. One game doesn't hurt them the slightest.

 

[Lareux]

Lines can only be made so high or so low. If books had the option, they would probably have not put out a line on yesterday's game tbh... playing contrarian doesn't always work. It was a strong line. One game doesn't hurt them the slightest.

Lol. No they wouldn't have, this is just silly talk. Stop.

Especially when you follow that up with "one game doesn't hurt them in the slightest." They can't both be true statements dude.

 

[Lareux]

They have played no-one and really don't play anyone for the rest of the season.

This team never lets down and executes their gameplan near perfectly every week.

Hags game in Week 10 will be interesting, Pats have no pass rush which is the Hags biggest weakness.

Em, your hatred for the Pats continues to show through.

But let's entertain your statement about them not playing anyone all year long. Who are the teams they aren't playing, that they need to, in order for you to say they've "played someone?" Or are you just saying the entire league is garbage and they're the only great team?

 

[nbafan88]

Lol. No they wouldn't have, this is just silly talk. Stop.

Especially when you follow that up with "one game doesn't hurt them in the slightest." They can't both be true statements dude.

They go hand in hand. The point is they have to line every game and sometimes the line cannot be made high enough. Betting against the pats this season is downright silly.

 

[Lareux]

They go hand in hand. The point is they have to line every game and sometimes the line cannot be made high enough.

No, they don't. You said they would have chosen not to put out a line if possible...then said one game won't hurt them. Why would they ever choose not to put out a line if one game wouldn't hurt them? #logicwins

 

[nbafan88]

No, they don't. You said they would have chosen not to put out a line if possible...then said one game won't hurt them. Why would they ever choose not to put out a line if one game wouldn't hurt them? #logicwins

ok :tiphat:

 

[Lareux]

ok :tiphat:

:shake2:

You may be right that sometimes lines can't be set high enough, but yesterday's Pats/Bills game certainly wasn't an example of that. The line went down, there were plenty of people betting on the Bills. There's also a large segment of people who will bet against NE no matter what, because they hate them. Most bettors aren't that rational and certainly don't think things through the way guys on here do.

 

[nbafan88]

And you may be wrong sometimes. :shake2:

You don't have to agree with anything I say but don't make it seem like you know what you're saying is true. You can give your opinions. I can give mines. This constant rebuttable to my posts with what you think are facts is just annoying. Thanks.

Lines just dont move because there is action coming on that side. Do you know that books move lines just to entice contrarian bettors? They know contrarian bettors exist and they most likely would entice that action if they think the team will cover easily. Books aren't just there to get 50/50 action on both sides. Lines move for many reasons

 

[wiseplayer]

Bears TT under 17.5 looks real good to me

 

[Lareux]

And you may be wrong sometimes. :shake2:

You don't have to agree with anything I say but don't make it seem like you know what you're saying is true. You can give your opinions. I can give mines. This constant rebuttable to my posts with what you think are facts is just annoying. Thanks.

Lines just dont move because there is action coming on that side. Do you know that books move lines just to entice contrarian bettors? They know contrarian bettors exist and they most likely would entice that action if they think the team will cover easily. Books aren't just there to get 50/50 action on both sides. Lines move for many reasons

Of course. But saying they can't make a line high enough, when it was under a TD is kinda silly.

I'm wrong a lot too, but not this time. Your claims couldn't both be true. It's okay to say you're wrong once in a while as well...especially when it happens so often.

You can also stop whining about me responding to you...it's not you personally at all. Not to mention, you do the same fucking thing ALL the time (especially in the NBA forum). You're just the kind of guy who can dish it out but can't take it...

 

[austinhous]

I have a theory that the negative back and forth that goes on here is directly related to how much $ that dude lost yesterday. Rough Sunday Lar?

 

[austinhous]

We got a situational angle thread in the NCAA Forum, which was pretty sweet the L2 weeks. If anyone has any more obscure (or not) situations I'm overlooking for tonight I'm all ears. I already have the obvious MNF division matchup, but that's as far as I've gotten..

 

[nbafan88]

Of course. But saying they can't make a line high enough, when it was under a TD is kinda silly.

I'm wrong a lot too, but not this time. Your claims couldn't both be true. It's okay to say you're wrong once in a while as well...especially when it happens so often.

You can also stop whining about me responding to you...it's not you personally at all. Not to mention, you do the same fucking thing ALL the time (especially in the NBA forum). You're just the kind of guy who can dish it out but can't take it...

all the time? Are you fucking kidding me?

Please point me to posts where I question others opinions... please go right ahead

They are my views on the lines... unless you have access to a linemaker or a sportsbook manager to correct me just move along.

I am here daily to share my picks and my thoughts on games... something I rarely see you do. I'm not here to search for people's grammatical errors and fact check every post.

I have had you blocked for weeks because of your absolutely useless banter. It's nothing personal. Just a waste of time. The only reason i responded is because the site refreshed the page...

anyways, good day.

 

[emkee]

 

[emkee]

 

[emkee]

Em, your hatred for the Pats continues to show through.

But let's entertain your statement about them not playing anyone all year long. Who are the teams they aren't playing, that they need to, in order for you to say they've "played someone?" Or are you just saying the entire league is garbage and they're the only great team?

I don't hate them. Just keeping things in perspective while everyone is crowning them this season's SB champs.

I'm actually a huge fan of the system plus coaching,

And I honestly can't hate them for the amount of money they made me in Tommy's first SB win vs the Rams.

As for that last comment, yes the entire league sucks this season. There are no great teams,

Just one good, very well-coached one.

 

[emkee]

We got a situational angle thread in the NCAA Forum, which was pretty sweet the L2 weeks. If anyone has any more obscure (or not) situations I'm overlooking for tonight I'm all ears. I already have the obvious MNF division matchup, but that's as far as I've gotten..

4-0 or greater NFL teams off their first loss of the season are 10-25 ATS as road chalk of less than 6 points if the loss occurred as a favorite.

 

[nbafan88]

I don't hate them. Just keeping things in perspective while everyone is crowning them this season's SB champs.

I'm actually a huge fan of the system plus coaching,

And I honestly can't hate them for the amount of money they made me in Tommy's first SB win vs the Rams.

As for that last comment, yes the entire league sucks this season. There are no great teams,

Just one good, very well-coached one.

Its not just about how good a team is. Deflategate just changed everything from a motivational standpoint. I don't see Brady looking ahead of any opponent or taking any opponent for granted. The motivational aspect is very important. Knowing a team is not gonna half-ass a game is huge.

 

[Lareux]

I don't hate them. Just keeping things in perspective while everyone is crowning them this season's SB champs.

I'm actually a huge fan of the system plus coaching,

And I honestly can't hate them for the amount of money they made me in Tommy's first SB win vs the Rams.

As for that last comment, yes the entire league sucks this season. There are no great teams,

Just one good, very well-coached one.

:shake2:

 

[Lareux]

Flipping through the stations waiting for trick or treaters and Jim Kelly is hanging out with the Countdown guys. So great to see him looking much better these days. Even once he was cancer free he still looked like a shell of himself, he looked frail and brittle. He looks as good as one would expect now, and it's just good to see.

 

[BJPLAYER]

I have a theory that the negative back and forth that goes on here is directly related to how much $ that dude lost yesterday. Rough Sunday Lar?

ha ha may be some truth here and does not help capping games we all need info solid info as opposed to opinions imho

 

[nbafan88]

Patriots "are like their free spot on bingo. It's only thing working for (public bettors)" http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/17938910


[h=1]Patriots continue to hurt Vegas books[/h]Tom Brady and the New England Patriotshave been hurting Las Vegas sportsbooks all season, but Sunday was especially bad.
The Patriots' road game against the Buffalo Bills was the most heavily bet of Sunday's 11-game slate. The AFC East showdown attracted 35 percent of the total money bet on all Sunday games at William Hill's Nevada sportsbook, and nearly 80 percent of the money bet on the game was on New England, which closed as 6-point road favorites and easily covered the spread in a 41-25 win.
"We got clobbered [Sunday] and we're going to get clobbered tonight," Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill, said Monday, noting that his book will be rooting for the underdog Chicago Bears in the Monday night game against the Minnesota Vikings.
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At MGM, there were 10 times as many bets on the Patriots as the Bills.
"We did suck out a little bit of straight-bet money [on the Bills], but not a lot," MGM vice president of race and sports Jay Rood said.
<aside data-behavior="article_related" class="clear" style="max-width: 100%; clear: both; color: rgb(27, 27, 27); font-family: -apple-system-font; font-size: 18px;">[h=1]Editor's Picks[/h]

• [h=2]Betting action on football games down in 2016[/h]According to Nevada Gaming Control numbers released last week, $308.5 million was wagered on football, both pro and college, in September -- a year-over-year decrease of nearly $6 million.

</aside>At Caesars, 92 percent off all parlay and teaser bets involving that game were tied to Tom Brady.
"We didn't get a lot of buyback and got destroyed due to the Pats," a Caesars sportsbook manager said in an email. "It wasn't our worst loss of the season, but it's in the top five for games we lost on this year, and is probably our highest loss on a game that wasn't a Sunday [or] Monday night game where everyone re-bets onto it."
New England is 7-1 against the spread this season, the best mark in the NFL.
"The public is betting the Patriots like every week now," Ed Salmons, assistant manager at the Westgate SuperBook said. "[The Patriots] are like their free spot in bingo. It's the one thing that's working for them."

 

[Montanas]

So who likes vikes tonight

 

[Montanas]

Bradford over 21 completions.

 

[RynoCub]

Does this mean you're going to play the Bears, emkee?

 

[RetroVK]

looks like sharps on bears. I don't get it but ...

 

[P-Unit]

Bears TT under 17.5 looks real good to me

was 19 yesterday. pissed I missed it.

 

[P-Unit]

So who likes vikes tonight

:shake:

 

[cogenman]

Jerick McKinnon out. Obviously AP out. Asiata rushing prop is 62.5 yards. He had 55 yards rushing in each of the last two games sharing duties with McKinnon. He'll get the bulk of the carries, and I'm assuming Hillman will get a few. Leaning over but wish I could get a receiving/rushing prop from him.

 

[Inspekdah]

It's clearly the Pats and everyone else. Nothing to see so far to suggest that they aren't great, either. Solid defense and the offense hasn't had this many weapons in a long time. Plus Gronk is still working his way back.

 

[Zeke]

4-0 or greater NFL teams off their first loss of the season are 10-25 ATS as road chalk of less than 6 points if the loss occurred as a favorite.

Well good thing I laid 6 on the Vikes, this won't apply to my bet.

 

[P-Unit]

Vikes back up to 6 and juiced to -115.

 

[nbafan88]

[h=1]2016 NFL Season: Week 8 Betting Recap[/h]Every Tuesday morning, the team at Sports Insights will examine some of the most interesting trends and results from the past week’s NFL action. We’ll also look at our betting systems, prop bets, futures movement, bad beats and more.

• Based on the closing line at Pinnacle, underdogs went 5-8 ATS in Week 8. In the 2016-17 season, underdogs have gone 61-56 ATS (52.1%).
• Home teams went 7-5 ATS in Week 8 and have gone 57-57 ATS this season.
• Home underdogs went 2-3 ATS Week 8, but they have gone 20-17 ATS (54.1%) in the ’16-’17 season.

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• Even after going 1-4 ATS in Week 8, underdogs still are profitable in division games. On the season, division underdogs are 23-15 ATS (60.5%).
• Betting against the public was not a profitable Week 8 strategy. Teams receiving less than half of spread bets went 6-7 ATS.
• For the fourth straight week, the Patriots had the largest level of public support. New England (closed -5.5 at Pinnacle) received 84% of spread bets, which is the highest percentage of spread bets a team has received this season.

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• New England remains the only NFL team to receive more than 80% of spread bets this season. The Patriots have received this level of support three times and covered the spread in all of those games.
• Following the money was another profitable investment strategy in Week 8. Teams receiving more than half of spread dollars went 8-5 ATS (61.5%).
• The AFC West went 3-1 ATS in Week 8 and has the best ATS record in the NFL. AFC West teams have gone 19-11 ATS (+7.35 u) this season.
• Bettors following the line movement had a profitable week. When the line got at least a half-point bettor (i.e. moving from +4 to +4.5, or from -5 to -4.5), teams went 7-3 ATS.
• Teams receiving less than 50% of spread tickets and over 50% of dollars went 3-2 ATS in Week 8.
• Taking ‘dogs straight up in Week 8 was not a profitable strategy (3-9 SU, -4.98 u). Still, taking every ‘dog this season has earned bettors +13.55 units.
• The biggest moneyline upset in Week 8 was the Chicago Bears (+205) beating their NFC North rival, the Minnesota Vikings. Only 29% of moneyline bets took the Bears.
• In Week 8, NFL Overs went 9-4 (+4.70 u). Taking every over has gone 66-54 (+8.77 u) in ’16-’17.
• There are several key players listed as questionable, and we’ll be tracking their status throughout the week. Some of these players include: Steve Smith Sr. (Ankle), LeSean McCoy (Hamstring), Randall Cobb (Hamstring), and Alex Smith (Concussion). Check out the latest updates on our free NFL injury page.
• Although he missed four games due to a suspension, Tom Brady is the favorite to win the NFL MVP. Since returning, Brady has thrown 12 touchdowns and 0 interceptions, while completing 73.1% of his passing (the best percentage in the NFL).

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• Following yet another loss, Bookmaker has posted odds for when the Browns (0-8) will get their first victory. At the time of publication, a winless season (+200) is the favorite.
• At the midway point, the New England Patriots are favorites at +210 to win the Super Bowl at 5Dimes. The Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks have the second-shortest odds at +975.
• Bengals wide receiver AJ Green has dethroned Julio Jones as the NFL’s leader in receiving yards. Prior to the season, Green was +2500 to lead the league in receiving yards.

Make sure to bookmark our free NFL odds page for the latest lines, public betting trends, futures and more.
Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
[h=4]Andrew Fine[/h]Andrew is a Sports Betting Specialist for Sports Insights. He can be reached at andrew@sportsinsights.com.