Week 8 Lookahead vs Openers and Discussion

In fact, I would argue that Eagles going for with 12 minutes contributed to their loss cuz Vikings were like 6 aint enough, only place to go is 9. Zimmer went there. You see Zimmer changed his decison tree after Pederson changed his decison tree
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
In fact, I would argue that Eagles going for with 12 minutes contributed to their loss cuz Vikings were like 6 aint enough, only place to go is 9. Zimmer went there. You see Zimmer changed his decison tree after Pederson changed his decison tree
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now this is getting laughable. you are saying that getting closer was a bad move because otherwise zimmer would have quit up 9 with 12 to go? do you actually believe this shit?
 
D-Woww said:
now this is getting laughable. you are saying that getting closer was a bad move because otherwise zimmer would have quit up 9 with 12 to go? do you actually believe this shit?
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Yes.

A HC feels much safer with 7 pt lead than 6pt. They dont think oppo will go for 2 instead of tying it with XP. So they dont feel need to be extra aggressive cause of cushion.

A team with ball late, up 6, knows they cant give it back.

Run that up your decision tree. One decison begets another. Pederson thought he was closer to winning down 6 instead of 7 with 12 minutes left, but he wasnt.

Zimmer shoved it up his ass.

You dont know how to play chess do you?
 
Do you still think the prob of the Chiefs being successful on a 2pt conversion verse the Falcons in the 1st qtr is the same prob as the Bills getting 2 verse the Rams late.

48% ???

Its not.

You see analytics can be dangerous with dull people.
 
D-Woww said:
the thing is, you say "imo" when it is not a matter of opinion, its a matter of fact. you must hate what is going on with baseball in terms of bullpen use since "that's not how it used to be done"

you sound like the guy who thinks wins matter for a pitcher. im not tryin to like attack you, by all means if you want to be stuck in the past and dislike innovations because you don't want to adapt to change, that is fine, but it takes a special kind of stubborn to think that what you think because of the way things used to be done supersedes numbers and facts
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Not Every “innovation” is good. What the computer geeks are doing to baseball is borderline criminal.

Dismissing wins for a pitcher as meaningless is ridiculous, I’d agree they not as meanigful as the measuring stick they once were thought of but they also say more about a pitcher than some choose to believe.

You don’t have to be stuck in the past to know that situational baseball has value, Not striking out has value, just because ppl use numbers skewed and interpreted in a way that lends credence to their belief it doesn’t make it factual. Truth is like most things in life there a big old gray area in the middle and the actual truth lies somewhere between with some the new ideals having merit but far from the be all end all definitive authority on being a “better” way to go about things..

I know/have much greater understanding of baseball analytics so I choose to focus on that point, I’d imagine my feelings on them every bit as true for football.. a excellent tool but not the entire box as numbers will never fully grasp/explain situational aspects of a game played with the human element.

I have a hard time watching someone get roasted as if his beliefs are 100% wrong cause analytics disagree w him. It kinda like when I hear pitchers who don’t have nasty swing and miss stuff are “lucky” when they perform well, as if somehow computers have deemed the art of pitching as a myth!!

Plenty of room for “progress” as you call it, without dismissing anyone who doesn’t agree as a dinosaur or grumpy old man. After all as long as humans play the game numbers will never be able to fully explain it.

So get off my lawn!! Or don’t, I’m
A tweener! (Which imo is the most progressive type :) )..
 
D-Woww said:
i am leaning towards not playing them though. coming into last week home dogs were like 19-9 and the giants were 0-3 lol. so those "spot" plays I love so much don't seem to work for this team. so yeah, likely a no play
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I’ve always been a home dog fan (hell I tend to be more a dog type player regardless of venue!), that said I’m having a incredibly difficult time finding 1 freaking dog I like this week!! Basically every game is chalk or pass for me on this card (lot of totals :) ) , I’m sure plenty of dogs win or cover but just not able to identify which this week, prob means all the dogs will cash! Lol.
 
I gotta play saints this week, I don’t think the minny run gm will be much a factor (they need cook back to mix in w Murray), saints swooped up apple just in time as now they have 2 corners who can match up w Vikings stud wrs, outside digs and theilen minny just doesn’t have anything else that scares teams right now so I’d suspect those corners will get help when needed on either those wrs. Ultimately right this moment I think saints offense is just more well rounded and Vikings defense still banged up. Feel like saints come marching in and avenge that painful playoff loss.
 
My .02 on the going for 2 instead of the extra point.
Yes analytics and statistics points towards it and and successful managers like Belichick and McVay are posterboys for using it properly BUT not all coaches
1) are on that level
2) manage to draw up the proper plays. They can say analytics was used to make the decision, but then they come up with brain fart plays outsmarting themselves.
 
On the games:

I like Carolina. I don't trust them offensively just yet, but Baltimore on the road vs. a good opponent has not been a pretty sight either. Their effort against the Browns, who beat themselves more often than not, is still a vivid memory. Btw. the line was also a -3 for the Ravens on the road in that one. Does that mean Carolina and Cleveland would be a pickem???? LOL
 
Gaius.T said:
On the games:

I like Carolina. I don't trust them offensively just yet, but Baltimore on the road vs. a good opponent has not been a pretty sight either. Their effort against the Browns, who beat themselves more often than not, is still a vivid memory. Btw. the line was also a -3 for the Ravens on the road in that one. Does that mean Carolina and Cleveland would be a pickem???? LOL
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I didn’t think about that but I am a big fan of number comparison for lines like that. Pretty much why I played falcons vs bucs few weeks ago, couldn’t figure out how I only had to lay 3 against bucs when atl was -6 vs panthers? Apparently books have very little respect for the panthers! Lol. I just hope both teams can get to 20!! Think that will be the early game that drags the longest into the afternoon slate w bunch of incomplete passes, 3 and outs, punts. Don’t think it gonna be the prettiest over I ever played but believe it will get there! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I didn’t think about that but I am a big fan of number comparison for lines like that. Pretty much why I played falcons vs bucs few weeks ago, couldn’t figure out how I only had to lay 3 against bucs when atl was -6 vs panthers? Apparently books have very little respect for the panthers! Lol. I just hope both teams can get to 20!! Think that will be the early game that drags the longest into the afternoon slate w bunch of incomplete passes, 3 and outs, punts. Don’t think it gonna be the prettiest over I ever played but believe it will get there! Lol
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do you see one of the teams scoring easier than the other?
 
Gaius.T said:
do you see one of the teams scoring easier than the other?
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Not sure it be easy for either. Just that there gonna be a lot of pass attempts which should lead to a lot of plays overall. Think be few big plays from both sides, panthers red zone defense has been pretty bad so maybe ravens have edge inside 20? It’s really more about amount of passes I believe will be thrown and the total being fairly low if that the case more so than expecting either offense to light it up.
 
2daBank said:
I’ve always been a home dog fan (hell I tend to be more a dog type player regardless of venue!), that said I’m having a incredibly difficult time finding 1 freaking dog I like this week!! Basically every game is chalk or pass for me on this card (lot of totals :) ) , I’m sure plenty of dogs win or cover but just not able to identify which this week, prob means all the dogs will cash! Lol.
Click to expand...

I played almost all favs and had my worst week of the year. womp womp
 
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