Week 8 Lookahead vs Openers and Discussion

I wonder what attendance at the giants game will be like. A good crowd I think can jive the team. I dont doubt that they still want to win. Front office giving up on the season doesn‘t necessarily point to the players tanking every game
 
NFL crowds hardly matter besides a handful of stadiums, MetLife is nothing and with a 1-6 team trading starters i have no idea how you'd have any expectations
 
i am leaning towards not playing them though. coming into last week home dogs were like 19-9 and the giants were 0-3 lol. so those "spot" plays I love so much don't seem to work for this team. so yeah, likely a no play
 
GWarner27 said:
NFL crowds hardly matter besides a handful of stadiums, MetLife is nothing and with a 1-6 team trading starters i have no idea how you'd have any expectations
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Im just thinking of a Jets vs Colts game where attendance was super poor and the Jets stunk. This was a week after the hotly attended close game vs New England. A crowd can imo help a team not want to lay an egg. Skins first home game is another example
 
no team wants to lay an egg, but when you are building for the future and playing back-ups from an already awful team i'm not sure a crowd of nuns praying 100% of the game will help

A season opener is a completely different story and i have no idea what you mean with the NYJ story
 
GWarner27 said:
FO going with a lot of different ATS and SU winners on the games, that doesn't sound like what happens in the NFL
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They are not picking winners. They are giving their power line compared to vegas line. The greater the difference, the greater the difference. SU winner just shows strongest power.

Its good info, particularly for folks that think these lines are pulled out of a hat
 
D-Woww said:
damn, the giants are legitimately everything I look for in a play; home dog against a team whos public perception is higher than it should be who is due for a letdown.

I just really hate trusting this team. gonna have to decide
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Why did Shurmur go for 2 when the score was 20-12 with 4 minutes left???

I will never bet on the Giants with him as coach. It makes my capping easier going forward.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Why did Shurmur go for 2 when the score was 20-12 with 4 minutes left???

I will never bet on the Giants with him as coach. It makes my capping easier going forward.
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right move. all the analytics support it and its going to be the hot topic going forward because football traditionalists hate it haha
 
Even if in the future, the cowboys are in a good spot, why bother, Jason Garrett is their coach. He is depressing and I am sure he has been the catalyst for many a suicide
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
It was the most retarded call in the history of football. What analytics say go for 2 when you are down 7 points with 4 minutes left. It will never be tried again in the history of the NFL. Any writer or pundit that writes otherwise is a troll or Nate Silver wannabe clown. Period.

Let ESPN try to explain the unexplanable.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/...w-york-giants-no-regrets-2-point-attempt-loss
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im in on analytics, you are not. that is ok. the theory is simple; you want to win the game, and if you go for 2 and get it, another td wins the game. you need another td either way, so worst case scenario, you are down 8 and can still tie with a td and a 2 pointer. if you can't convert one of the 2 two pointers, you don't deserve to win. if you play for the tie, the best case scenario is that you go to OT against a team that is clearly better than you. I hate the giants and don't love shurmur, but that is a good call and I support it
 
Is that why it has never been tried before in the history of football because Pat Shurmur is some kind of genius or something? Like Im sure.1540485005411.png
 
How is never been tried before a support for a point? Literally every innovation that's prominent in the game had never been tried before at some point. Like the kind of helmets worn today.
 
never before? try two weeks ago by philly.

and if that is your mindset, that things that haven't been done before shouldn't be done now, then you are way out of touch. the game is changing; offenses in particular. we live in an era where a team wins a SB by not only going for a 4th and goal at the end of the 1st half of the super bowl, but by doing so and throwing to the qb. saying "I don't like it because that's the way its always been done and I don't want to change my views" is very "get off my lawn"
 
all of these things; going for more fourth downs, going for 2 more, college style offenses....all things that would make the head coaches of 1988 go nuts. you either innovate with the game or end up being the old man yelling at a cloud.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
you got some apples to apples going

or are you and VC trying to show how smart you are?

Cuz innovaton :)
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Nice, make it personal when you have nothing to say. Just scoff at what you don’t (want to) understand. I don‘t get why you‘re so close-minded.

You give your team the highest probability of winning. That‘s the goal.
 
johnny please go read about expected value and decision trees before you embarrass yourself further

to save you some time:

go for 2 at 48% success rate = 2(.48) = .96
go for 1 at 95% = 1(.95) = .95

.96 > .95 and if you get the two the first time then you win with a PAT on your next TD. Miss and you have another chance from the 2 yardline and you can still tie the game
 
GWarner27 said:
johnny please go read about expected value and decision trees before you embarrass yourself further

to save you some time:

go for 2 at 48% success rate = 2(.48) = .96
go for 1 at 95% = 1(.95) = .95

.96 > .95 and if you get the two the first time then you win with a PAT on your next TD. Miss and you have another chance from the 2 yardline and you can still tie the game
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Just so I understand your dig.

If it is so fucking obvious and Im embarrassing myself cuz decision tree. . .

Every team that does not goes for 2 when down 7 late in the game is now making an embarrassing decision?

Is that what you geniuses are saying?

You are embarrassing yourself
 
the thing is, you say "imo" when it is not a matter of opinion, its a matter of fact. you must hate what is going on with baseball in terms of bullpen use since "that's not how it used to be done"

you sound like the guy who thinks wins matter for a pitcher. im not tryin to like attack you, by all means if you want to be stuck in the past and dislike innovations because you don't want to adapt to change, that is fine, but it takes a special kind of stubborn to think that what you think because of the way things used to be done supersedes numbers and facts
 
I must be old school too then cause I thought it was a shitty decision. Past outcomes do not always dictate future results. If the first conversion attempt fails that does not mean you have an increased chance of making the second one. It is still a 48% chance.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Just so I understand your dig.

If it is so fucking obvious and Im embarrassing myself cuz decision tree. . .

Every team that does not goes for 2 when down 7 late in the game is now making an embarrassing decision?

Is that what you geniuses are saying?

You are embarrassing yourself
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you called making the smarter decision retarded, unacceptable word choice also but that's not my issue here
 
Zeke said:
I must be old school too then cause I thought it was a shitty decision. Past outcomes do not always dictate future results. If the first conversion attempt fails that does not mean you have an increased chance of making the second one. It is still a 48% chance.
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you get two of them since they were down 14 so the EV difference is even larger

(and i chose a larger successful PAT% and lower successful 2PT% than i truly believe to be conservative)
 
I love ya Johnny but these guys are right. You give these dolt coaches too much credit/respect. They make inane decisions all the time whether it be poor clock management, dopey play-calling, etc. It never ceases to baffle me the amount of money these guys are paid to make unjustifiable, probability defying decisions which negatively impact their team's chances of winning. This article addresses the topic pretty clear: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/
 
GWarner27 said:
you called making the smarter decision retarded, unacceptable word choice also but that's not my issue here
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It was an ironic word choice cause retarded etymologically means held back, slow to develop, slow to adapt. Lol.
Lots of scholars used this word unproblematically. A long time ago in the world Johnny lives in
 
I'll just weigh in and say you absolutely go for two down 14 later in the game. Every bit of math and logic supports it. Fight it all you want, it's not debatable. It's the right call 100%... In fact had Tavecchio not made a 56 yarder, it worked as it should have and the game would have been tied at 20.
 
Philly and Giant game totally different
Zeke said:
I must be old school too then cause I thought it was a shitty decision. Past outcomes do not always dictate future results. If the first conversion attempt fails that does not mean you have an increased chance of making the second one. It is still a 48% chance.
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48% LOL

Exactly or worse if you are NY Giants and you sucked the entire game and at the end of the day had 2 pathetic high risk pass plays for 2, or you could kick 2 extra points at 99% chance make. They havent missed this year.

Yall are so smart Monday morning QBs?? Eli was like wtf. He wasnt ready for it. He is vet.

The Texans?? No way they are 48% They cant even line up under center.

Maybe Falcons respond differently if up only 6 and not 7.

What does decision tree say? My decision tree would say, you aint getting ball back and my play calling changes decision tree

Its like you got man on 1st and power hitter hit up, dude steals second, Im walking him

Everything changes decision tree
 
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We have a lot of guys in here who must like bunting in baseball too.

It’s decades of data. Ignore at your own peril.

GL to all tonight.
 
cuz does the Rams going for 2 up 6-0 in the 1st qtr against the niners has the same chance as Giants desperately going for 2 down 8 with 4 minutes left?

Probability is the same lol

DWOW 48% FACT lol
 
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So whats up with Vrabel kicking extra point 17-12 9 minutes left 3rd qtr. Why doesnt he go for 2 and try to take it to 3? I dont get it. Do you go for it there? What does decision tree say? Things are so obvious? Educate me.
 
If you score a td in 1st qtr and you assume you are going to score another td sometime do you for 2 every time? Why not? Cuz if you dont it make 1st time there is always 2nd time hmmm
 
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