Week 8 in the FCS

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Matchup​	Time (ET)​	TV/Mobile​
Furman at Wofford	12:00pm	Nexstar/ESPN+
Princeton at Brown	12:00pm	ESPN+
Merrimack at Harvard	12:00pm	ESPN+
Stonehill at Yale	12:00pm	ESPN+
Robert Morris at LIU	12:00pm	NEC Front Row
Butler at Dayton	12:00pm	YouTube
Dartmouth at Fordham	1:00pm	SNY/ESPN+
Stetson at Presbyterian	1:00pm	ESPN+
Davidson at Drake	1:00pm	ESPN+
Bucknell at Cornell	1:00pm	ESPN+
Hampton at Villanova	1:00pm	FloSports
Stony Brook at Monmouth	1:00pm	FloSports
North Dakota State at Indiana State	1:00pm	ABC ND/ESPN+
Colgate at Georgetown	1:00pm	ESPN+
UT Martin at Gardner-Webb	1:30pm	ESPN+
Samford at VMI	1:30pm	ESPN+
Penn at Columbia	1:30pm	ESPN+
ETSU at Chattanooga	1:30pm	ESPN+
South Dakota at Northern Iowa	2:00pm	ESPN+
Western Carolina at The Citadel	2:00pm	ESPN+
Tennessee Tech at Lindenwood	2:00pm	ESPN+
Holy Cross at Richmond	2:00pm	MNMT/ESPN+
Marist at Morehead State	2:00pm	ESPN+
Valparaiso at St. Thomas	2:00pm	FOX9+/MidcoSports+
Virginia-Lynchburg at Texas Southern	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Lincoln (CA) at MVSU	3:00pm	SWAC TV
Grambling State at UAPB	3:00pm	SWAC TV
North Dakota at Southern Illinois	3:00pm	ESPN+
Eastern Illinois at Southeast Missouri	1:00	ESPN+
Youngstown State at Illinois State	3:00pm	MSN/ESPN+
Sacred Heart at Montana	3:00pm	Scripps/ESPN+
Elon at William & Mary	3:30pm	MASN/FloSports
New Hampshire at Campbell	3:30pm	FloSports
Rhode Island at UAlbany	3:30pm	FloSports
Charleston So. at Western Illinois	4:00pm	ESPN+
Alcorn State at Florida A&M	4:00pm	ESPN network
UTRGV at Lamar	4:00pm	ESPN+
Howard at Tennessee State	4:30pm	ESPN+
Weber State at Portland State	5:00pm	ESPN+
CCSU at Wagner	5:00pm	NEC Front Row
Northwestern State at Southeastern La.	5:00pm	ESPN+
Prairie View A&M at Southern	5:00pm	HBCU GO
East Texas A&M at UIW	5:30pm	ESPN+
South Dakota State at Murray State	2:00	ESPN+
Eastern Kentucky at North Alabama	7:00pm	ESPN+
West Georgia at Tarleton State	7:00pm	ESPN+
HCU at McNeese	7:00pm	ESPN+
Nicholls at Stephen F. Austin	7:00pm	ESPN+
Duquesne at Mercyhurst	6:00	NEC Front Row
Idaho at Eastern Washington	7:00pm	SWX/ESPN+
Abilene Christian at Southern Utah	8:30pm	ESPN+
Northern Colorado at Sacramento State	9:00pm	KMAX31/ESPN+
Lafayette at Oregon State	10:00pm	The CW

 

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Big Sky




CAA



Ivy



MEAC



MVFC



NEC

 

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OVC / Big South



Patriot


Pioneer


Southland


SoCon



SWAC



UAC

 

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Super Colgate WR Treyvhon Saunders injured

On Colgate’s second offensive play from scrimmage, WR Treyvhon Saunders did what he always did- catch the football. Only this time it was different. Saunders was down on the field with a left leg injury and was eventually carted off the field. The senior wideout was in the middle of his best season of college football. Not only was he leading the FCS in receiving yards and catches, but he was also the best receiver in the nation, leading all of college football in both categories with 49 receptions and 682 yards. He did make his way back on the sideline on crutches to support his teammates as they tried to pull off the victory.

“We’re going to miss him,” Fitzpatrick said. “But I know he’ll do whatever he can do to be a positive force for our team. And our receivers will rally, and just like we did today…

 

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Furman was playing without their #1 WR in Fr James and then #2 Hamilton got hurt early last game.

 

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Not sure if Robert Morris found some O they can count on going forward with a couple young QBs. Guy from first 4 games, Tanner, has been hurt or benched. Panteck played vs Merrimack and Wolfe saw some limited duty vs Dayton. This week both split time vs CCSU and while RM still struggled to score pts, RM had by far their best offensive game of the year. They had 434y passing in 3 FCS games combined previously, vs CCSU they threw for 356, 60% with a 1-2 ratio. Their total yard avg vs FCS in those 3 games 239ypg, nearly 200 more yards vs CCSU with 431 (6.0). Only scored 12 pts primarily due to 122 empty yards on two drives that ended in missed FGs (C22 and C15). Middleton caught 9-186-TD for them (had 5 catches for 65y on the year prior). Threw a pick-six that was part of CCSU's 24 pt total.

CCSU's D has been really bad this year vs anyone with a pulse and while it looks like they played better based on the score, but they allowed Robert Morris, who previously did not have a pulse on O, a ton more yards then they normally produce.

 

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LOL

 

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Notable QB injuries heading into week #8

Northern Colorado - Peter Costelli 8/30 (likely out for year)
Indiana St. - Elijah Owens out since 9/6
Lamar - Robert Coleman out since 9/6
Georgetown - Danny Lauter out since 9/13
Tarleton St. - Victor Gabalis out since 9/20
Albany - Jack Shields out since 9/20
Richmond - Kyle Wickersham out since 9/27
Bryant - Brennan Myer out since 9/27
Stetson - Kael Alexander out since 9/27
Florida A&M - RJ Johnson out since 9/27
Weber St. - Jackson Gilkey 9/27 (is out for year)
Southeast Missouri St. - Jax Leatherwood 9/27 (out 4-6 weeks)
Southeast Missouri St. - Patrick Heitert 9/27 (likely out for year)
Samford - Quincy Crittendon left game 10/4 against Mercer
Marist - Sonny Mannino dnp 10/10 against Penn
Mercyhurst - Adam Urena dnp 10/11 against Wagner
Alabama A&M - Cornelious Brown dnp 10/11 against MVST
Bucknell - Ralph Rucker dnp 10/11 against Lafayette
West Georgia - Davin Wydner dnp 10/11 against ACU
Indiana St. - Keegan Patterson dnp 10/11 against South Dakota
St. Thomas - Andy Peters left game 10/11 against Davidson

 

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LOL

View attachment 103067

Still dreaming of the Tennessee Tech -13.5

 

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Notable QB injuries heading into week #8

Thank you.

I thought for a minute that the USD line might come back up once it was out Trees were starting their 3rd string QB, but the fade sentiment for USD must've been too strong. Sometimes the injuries matter (like no Rucker or Wydner), sometimes they don't (like Ind St on 3rd QB, or Urena was out!). I had no idea that Urena was out for Mercyhurst, haven't done the box score yet so I see it for the first time now. I would've been leary of my ML bet if I had known Urena was out, I might've adjusted the amount or not bet them all together. Glad I didn't know.

I saw Myer on the sideline for Bryant, arm in sling.

 

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Week 8 will see my 1000th bet of the 2025 college season be placed (at 961 right now)!

 

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Sacred Heart is 1 point away from a 5-0 ATS streak. Have won 4 of last 5 straight up as dogs. Avg just 232.5 ypg O their first 2 games, avg 433 ypg their last 5! The D had previously been gashed by everyone except Stonehill (261y allowed) and LIU (208y allowed), add Howard to the list that SHU managed to shut down, 233y allowed. D yielded 487ypg vs their other 4 teams (Lehigh, Norfolk, Delaware St and CCSU)

 

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Sacred Heart is 1 point away from a 5-0 ATS streak. Have won 4 of last 5 straight up as dogs. Avg just 232.5 ypg O their first 2 games, avg 433 ypg their last 5! The D had previously been gashed by everyone except Stonehill (261y allowed) and LIU (208y allowed), add Howard to the list that SHU managed to shut down, 233y allowed. D yielded 487ypg vs their other 4 teams (Lehigh, Norfolk, Delaware St and CCSU)

And for Howard vs FCS, their O has been awful except for the Hampton game. They avg just 242 ypg of O in 3 other games vs FCS (FAMU, Richmond and SHU)! Gained 456y on Hampton and scored 34. Avg just 12ppg vs other 3 other FCS Ds.

 

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This was the first game where Montana State looked more like the 2024 version (53rush att 384y 7.2ypc), but the 2025 team is more balanced and the hope is that pays dividends in the playoffs.

But the 38-14 win is a little misleading. Idaho State was better than that this game. It was just 20-14 2Q and Idaho State moved it well on O. Now, Bobcat O could not be stopped and they had 6 long yardage TD drives and were excellent all around. However, ISU moved it well also, but had 190 empty yards on 3Q/early 4Q drives that resulted in missed FG M19, Fum at M14 and SOD M27. The 404y ISU gained and 6.2ypp was significantly above what MSU typically allows on D. Not saying that as a slight to MSU, but as a compliment to ISU's O. If we compare it to Cats other toughest game this year, SDSU, Jacks only got 297y and 4.6ypp.

 

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Massey

Date	Team	Standing	Scr	Pred	Pwin	Margin	Total
Sat 10.18 12:00.PM.ET	Butler @ Dayton	# 91 (4-3) # 90 (5-1)	0 0	24 27	43 % 57 %	-2.5	49.5
Sat 10.18 12:00.PM.ET	Merrimack @ Harvard	# 80 (3-4) # 9 (4-0)	0 0	10 36	3 % 97 %	-25.5	48.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	Colgate @ Georgetown	# 70 (2-4) # 98 (3-3)	0 0	31 26	64 % 36 %	-5.5	58.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	Hampton @ Villanova	# 114 (2-5) # 14 (4-2)	0 0	13 41	2 % 98 %	-27.5	54.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	N Dakota St @ Indiana St	# 1 (6-0) # 69 (2-4)	0 0	45 10	99 % 1 %	-35.5	57.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	Stony Brook @ Monmouth NJ	# 58 (3-3) # 19 (5-1)	0 0	31 38	35 % 65 %	-6.5	70.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	Stetson @ Presbyterian	# 129 (3-4) # 68 (6-0)	0 0	17 42	6 % 94 %	-25.5	57.5
Sat 10.18 1:00.PM.ET	Davidson @ Drake	# 127 (1-5) # 62 (3-2)	0 0	14 42	5 % 95 %	-27.5	57.5
Sat 10.18 1:30.PM.ET	ETSU @ Chattanooga	# 47 (3-4) # 57 (2-4)	0 0	27 30	43 % 57 %	-3.5	56.5
Sat 10.18 1:30.PM.ET	TN Martin @ Gardner Webb	# 51 (2-5) # 31 (4-2)	0 0	28 29	49 % 51 %	-1.5	59.5
Sat 10.18 1:30.PM.ET	Samford @ VMI	# 99 (0-6) # 115 (1-5)	0 0	28 20	75 % 25 %	-7.5	52.5
Sat 10.18 2:00.PM.ET	Marist @ Morehead St	# 111 (3-3) # 125 (2-5)	0 0	28 24	65 % 35 %	-4.5	48.5
Sat 10.18 2:00.PM.ET	South Dakota @ Northern Iowa	# 11 (4-3) # 36 (2-4)	0 0	28 20	78 % 22 %	-8.5	48.5
Sat 10.18 2:00.PM.ET	Tennessee Tech @ Lindenwood	# 10 (6-0) # 55 (3-3)	0 0	31 21	76 % 24 %	-10.5	56.5
Sat 10.18 2:00.PM.ET	W Carolina @ Citadel	# 33 (4-3) # 50 (3-3)	0 0	31 25	65 % 35 %	-6.5	57.5
Sat 10.18 3:00.PM.ET	E Illinois @ SE Missouri St	# 72 (3-3) # 54 (2-4)	0 0	21 30	23 % 77 %	-9.5	52.5
Sat 10.18 3:00.PM.ET	Grambling @ Ark Pine Bluff	# 116 (3-3) # 124 (2-3)	0 0	31 24	71 % 29 %	-7.5	56.5
Sat 10.18 3:00.PM.ET	Lincoln CA @ MS Valley St	(0-5) # 128 (0-5)	0 0	10 45	1 % 99 %	-35.5	56.5
Sat 10.18 3:00.PM.ET	VA-Lynchburg @ TX Southern	(2-4) # 110 (3-3)	0 0	7 49	0 % 100 %	-42.5	54.5
Sat 10.18 3:00.PM.ET	North Dakota @ S Illinois	# 7 (4-2) # 8 (4-2)	0 0	31 28	56 % 44 %	-2.5	61.5
Sat 10.18 3:30.PM.ET	New Hampshire @ Campbell	# 40 (3-4) # 77 (2-5)	0 0	31 24	67 % 33 %	-6.5	58.5
Sat 10.18 3:30.PM.ET	Rhode Island @ SUNY Albany	# 26 (5-2) # 94 (1-5)	0 0	27 20	70 % 30 %	-6.5	46.5
Sat 10.18 3:30.PM.ET	Elon @ William & Mary	# 30 (4-3) # 45 (3-3)	0 0	27 28	48 % 52 %	-1.5	53.5
Sat 10.18 4:00.PM.ET	Charleston So @ W Illinois	# 82 (1-6) # 103 (1-6)	0 0	30 29	51 % 49 %	-0.5	60.5
Sat 10.18 5:00.PM.ET	Northwestern LA @ SE Louisiana	# 121 (1-5) # 20 (4-2)	0 0	7 42	1 % 99 %	-35.5	53.5
Sat 10.18 7:00.PM.ET	Houston Chr @ McNeese St	# 95 (2-4) # 85 (1-5)	0 0	21 28	29 % 71 %	-6.5	52.5
Sat 10.18 8:30.PM.ET	Abilene Chr @ Southern Utah	# 13 (4-3) # 59 (1-5)	0 0	35 33	53 % 47 %	-2.5	68.5
Sat 10.18 10:00.PM.ET	Lafayette @ Oregon St	# 48 (5-2) (0-7)	0 0	14 41	4 % 96 %	-27.5	56.5
Sat 10.18	N Colorado @ CS Sacramento	# 53 (3-3) # 22 (3-3)	0 0	17 35	9 % 91 %	-18.5	52.5
Sat 10.18	Alcorn St @ Florida A&M	# 123 (1-5) # 109 (1-4)	0 0	20 28	21 % 79 %	-8.5	46.5
Sat 10.18	Dartmouth @ Fordham	# 32 (3-1) # 93 (1-5)	0 0	28 21	73 % 27 %	-7.5	53.5
Sat 10.18	Duquesne @ Mercyhurst	# 73 (4-3) # 92 (3-4)	0 0	30 24	65 % 35 %	-6.5	57.5
Sat 10.18	E Kentucky @ North Alabama	# 27 (3-3) # 83 (1-5)	0 0	31 24	69 % 31 %	-6.5	56.5
Sat 10.18	Idaho @ E Washington	# 24 (2-4) # 34 (2-4)	0 0	31 28	59 % 41 %	-3.5	61.5
Sat 10.18	Furman @ Wofford	# 44 (4-2) # 71 (1-5)	0 0	21 24	45 % 55 %	-2.5	42.5
Sat 10.18	Holy Cross @ Richmond	# 75 (0-6) # 39 (4-3)	0 0	21 24	42 % 58 %	-2.5	45.5
Sat 10.18	Youngstown St @ Illinois St	# 25 (3-3) # 21 (4-2)	0 0	28 31	45 % 55 %	-2.5	62.5
Sat 10.18	East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word	# 104 (1-5) # 29 (2-4)	0 0	17 40	8 % 92 %	-23.5	58.5
Sat 10.18	Nicholls St @ SF Austin	# 63 (1-5) # 16 (4-2)	0 0	14 28	11 % 89 %	-14.5	46.5
Sat 10.18	Weber St @ Portland St	# 49 (2-4) # 79 (0-6)	0 0	31 29	53 % 47 %	-2.5	61.5
Sat 10.18	Prairie View @ Southern Univ	# 86 (4-2) # 119 (1-5)	0 0	24 20	65 % 35 %	-4.5	48.5
Sat 10.18	Robert Morris @ LIU Post	# 117 (1-5) # 107 (1-5)	0 0	17 24	24 % 76 %	-7.5	44.5
Sat 10.18	S Dakota St @ Murray St	# 2 (6-0) # 106 (0-6)	0 0	45 7	100 % 0 %	-37.5	55.5
Sat 10.18	Stonehill @ Yale	# 102 (2-4) # 38 (2-2)	0 0	7 35	1 % 99 %	-27.5	46.5
Sat 10.18	West Georgia @ Tarleton St	# 23 (5-2) # 4 (7-0)	0 0	21 38	13 % 87 %	-17.5	59.5
Sat 10.18	Howard @ Tennessee St	# 87 (3-3) # 101 (1-5)	0 0	20 23	37 % 63 %	-3.5	43.5
Sat 10.18	Central Conn @ Wagner	# 84 (4-3) # 120 (1-5)	0 0	28 20	76 % 24 %	-7.5	49.5
Sat 10.18	Princeton @ Brown	# 65 (2-2) # 43 (3-1)	0 0	28 31	44 % 56 %	-2.5	55.5
Sat 10.18	UTRGV @ Lamar	# 56 (5-1) # 28 (5-1)	0 0	28 26	53 % 47 %	-2.5	57.5
Sat 10.18	Valparaiso @ St Thomas MN	# 126 (1-5) # 88 (3-3)	0 0	13 37	4 % 96 %	-24.5	49.5
Sat 10.18	Penn @ Columbia	# 52 (3-1) # 81 (1-3)	0 0	24 21	61 % 39 %	-3.5	46.5
Sat 10.18	Sacred Heart @ Montana	# 74 (5-2) # 5 (6-0)	0 0	10 44	1 % 99 %	-33.5	54.5
Sat 10.18	Bucknell @ Cornell	# 78 (4-3) # 105 (0-4)	0 0	28 32	38 % 62 %	-4.5	60.5

Massey Ratings - CF Games

CF,College Football,FCS, game scores, schedules, and predictions

masseyratings.com

 

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Sagarin

HOME ADVANTAGE= 4.63 4.43 4.77 4.70 4.70

FAVORITE Rating Pred Golden Recent Strong UNDERDOG MONEY WIN% home away TOTAL

49 @ Oregon State 10.99 13.85 8.54 11.72 4.87 Lafayette 312 76% 40.34 26.23 66.57



62 Rhode Island 8.07 5.70 11.85 8.82 14.86 @ Albany-NY 235 70% 11.65 27.70 39.35

63 Grambling State 1.73 2.35 1.05 3.12 2.51 @ Ark.-Pine Bluff 121 55% 29.52 31.23 60.75

64 @ Brown 6.93 6.13 7.25 7.97 14.89 Princeton 209 68% 35.05 13.66 48.71

65 New Hampshire 1.03 0.41 1.89 1.77 0.61 @ Campbell 112 53% 30.69 31.07 61.76

66 @ Chattanooga 1.31 1.98 2.65 -1.69 -6.83 East Tenn State 115 54% 30.47 30.71 61.18

67 Western Carolina 2.78 3.51 0.63 6.04 5.79 @ The Citadel 135 58% 27.10 30.38 57.48

68 Pennsylvania 4.05 1.98 5.58 6.26 13.06 @ Columbia 155 61% 16.02 27.80 43.82

69 @ Cornell 5.20 7.86 -2.58 11.55 10.60 Bucknell 175 64% 33.29 25.19 58.48

70 @ Dayton 6.77 5.04 6.70 9.12 18.41 Butler 206 67% 30.75 19.80 50.55

71 @ Drake 23.55 20.29 22.29 34.11 50.84 Davidson 963 91% 52.93 11.11 64.05

72 Idaho 0.95 2.30 -1.67 3.55 4.41 @ Eastern Wash 111 53% 29.19 38.64 67.82

73 @ Florida A&M 6.72 6.90 8.62 4.55 -0.77 Alcorn State 205 67% 14.67 24.13 38.80

74 Dartmouth 7.40 6.03 9.47 8.77 10.52 @ Fordham 220 69% 17.66 29.00 46.66

75 @ Gardner-Webb 12.90 9.64 14.37 16.66 23.80 Tennessee-Martin 374 79% 39.70 19.16 58.86

76 Colgate 1.72 3.09 -0.36 3.86 6.61 @ Georgetown 121 55% 28.87 37.47 66.34

77 @ Harvard 26.34 25.34 26.40 31.82 40.83 Merrimack 1205 92% 43.96 5.14 49.10

78 @ Illinois State 2.91 1.78 6.20 -0.06 -1.05 Youngstown State 137 58% 31.67 36.37 68.03

79 @ Incarnate Word 15.40 15.92 15.55 16.73 13.84 East Texas A&M 472 83% 35.57 20.53 56.10

80 North Dakota State 28.70 29.04 27.13 36.85 45.19 @ Indiana State 1442 94% 15.82 52.47 68.29

81 @ Lamar 9.55 8.27 12.53 8.23 5.67 UTRGV 272 73% 24.63 32.12 56.75

82 Tennessee Tech 8.96 9.11 7.18 13.63 21.59 @ Lindenwood 257 72% 21.37 39.84 61.21

83 @ LIU Post 9.59 6.91 9.99 13.69 20.00 Robert Morris 273 73% 28.78 7.80 36.58

84 @ McNeese State 5.49 5.32 4.89 6.68 5.23 Houston Christian 181 64% 20.45 24.06 44.51

85 @ Mercyhurst 2.68 2.16 3.29 2.17 2.41 Duquesne 134 57% 34.76 24.92 59.68

86 @ Monmouth-NJ 10.56 8.87 14.26 9.38 7.76 Stony Brook 300 75% 46.54 36.50 83.04

87 @ Montana 23.67 25.78 25.41 23.35 20.51 Sacred Heart 972 91% 41.06 16.41 57.47

88 Marist 1.38 -1.40 0.92 6.47 16.82 @ Morehead State 116 54% 15.00 27.37 42.38

89 South Dakota State 31.42 31.27 36.98 33.26 36.26 @ Murray State 1750 95% 12.26 49.18 61.43

90 Eastern Kentucky 8.43 7.54 10.68 9.54 15.87 @ North Alabama 243 71% 16.76 37.44 54.20

91 South Dakota 2.18 1.81 5.08 0.36 1.76 @ Northern Iowa 127 56% 18.31 19.83 38.14

92 @ Portland State 0.94 1.25 -1.81 3.34 4.50 Weber State 111 53% 30.15 27.77 57.92

93 @ Presbyterian College 23.98 21.44 24.40 30.94 44.69 Stetson 997 91% 51.35 5.68 57.02

94 @ Richmond 9.58 6.13 12.82 10.78 15.77 Holy Cross 273 73% 20.75 14.57 35.32

95 @ Sacramento State 14.25 14.25 13.64 16.93 15.34 Northern Colorado 425 81% 30.26 17.70 47.97

96 @ St. Thomas-Mn. 20.46 17.35 18.14 31.45 48.17 Valparaiso 741 88% 39.95 7.86 47.81

97 @ SE Missouri State 5.74 6.47 5.34 5.61 2.80 Eastern Illinois 185 65% 24.92 21.74 46.66

98 @ SE Louisiana 28.80 29.02 28.81 33.28 39.07 Northwestern St 1453 94% 48.67 6.32 54.99

99 Prairie View A&M 1.09 -0.97 1.10 5.16 15.51 @ Southern U. 113 53% 12.55 26.58 39.12

100 North Dakota 1.47 1.24 -0.48 5.50 9.44 @ Southern Illinois 117 54% 31.55 37.01 68.56

101 Abilene Christian 0.62 -1.91 1.20 4.04 8.75 @ Southern Utah 107 52% 38.75 34.48 73.24

102 @ Stephen F. Austin 15.64 15.35 16.01 17.70 22.44 Nicholls State 482 83% 29.89 9.22 39.11

103 @ Tarleton State 19.21 19.23 18.82 22.55 26.07 West Georgia 665 87% 41.13 21.16 62.28

104 Howard 1.51 -0.63 0.61 6.33 13.15 @ Tennessee State 118 54% 12.28 16.73 29.02

105 @ Villanova 26.14 22.92 28.40 31.65 37.48 Hampton 1186 92% 42.65 8.57 51.22

106 Samford 0.28 0.49 -0.19 1.55 2.09 @ VMI 103 51% 28.28 22.65 50.93

107 Central Connecticut 5.72 3.34 6.76 9.35 16.48 @ Wagner 185 65% 20.50 24.04 44.55

108 Charleston Southern 0.15 0.19 -1.52 2.80 4.27 @ Western Illinois 102 50% 25.15 31.79 56.94

109 @ William & Mary 0.61 0.60 2.22 -2.24 -5.20 Elon 107 52% 24.41 24.40 48.81

110 @ Wofford 2.17 5.89 -2.61 3.10 3.83 Furman 127 56% 17.22 11.68 28.90

111 @ Yale 17.73 16.71 17.55 21.72 21.56 Stonehill College 583 85% 21.28 7.21 28.49

College Football Ratings Page

 

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Reddit FCS Sportsbook

10/18: Abilene Christian -2 @ So Utah (O/U 60.5)

10/18: Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -6.5 (O/U 50.5)

10/18: Bucknell @ Cornell -2.5 (O/U 55)

10/18: Butler @ Dayton -4.5 (O/U 50.5)

10/18: CCSU -6.5 @ Wagner (O/U 49.5)

10/18: Charleston So -3 @ Western Ill (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Colgate -6 @ Georgetown (O/U 56.5)

10/18: Dartmouth -12 @ Fordham (O/U 54.5)

10/18: Davidson @ Drake -31 (O/U 56)

10/18: Duquesne @ Mercyhurst -2.5 (O/U 53)

10/18: ETSU -2.5 @ Chattanooga (O/U 56.5)

10/18: East Texas A&M @ UIW -9.5 (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Eastern Illinois @ SEMO -3 (O/U 53)

10/18: EKU -9 @ North Alabama (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Elon @ William & Mary -0.5 (O/U 54)

10/18: Furman @ Wofford -2.5 (O/U 49.5)

10/18: Grambling -10 @ UAPB (O/U 55)

10/18: Hampton @ Villanova -24 (O/U 54.5)

10/18: Holy Cross @ Richmond -4.5 (O/U 47)

10/18: HCU @ McNeese -2.5 (O/U 52.5)

10/18: Howard -2.5 @ Tennessee State (O/U 47.5)

10/18: Idaho -8 @ Eastern Washington (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Lafayette @ Oregon St -13 (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Lincoln CA @ MVSU -33.5 (O/U 57.5)

10/18: Marist -8.5 @ Morehead State (O/U 52)

10/18: Merrimack @ Harvard -24 (O/U 50.5)

10/18: New Hampshire -4 @ Campbell (O/U 55)

10/18: Nicholls @ Stephen F. Austin -12.5 (O/U 48)

10/18: North Dakota -4 @ Southern Illinois (O/U 58)

10/18: North Dakota St -26 @ Indiana StO/U 57.5)

10/18: Northern Colo @ Sacramento St -11 (O/U 52)

10/18: NW St @ Southeastern -30.5 (O/U 53.5)

10/18: Penn -7.5 @ Columbia (O/U 49)

10/18: Prairie View A&M -6.5 @ Southern (O/U 50.5)

10/18: Princeton @ Brown -8.5 (O/U 52.5)

10/18: Rhode Island -11 @ UAlbany (O/U 48.5)

10/18: Robert Morris @ LIU -11 (O/U 46.5)

10/18: Sacred Heart @ Montana -27.5 (O/U 55.5)

10/18: Samford -1 @ VMI (O/U 54)

10/18: So Dakota -5.5 @ Northern Iowa (O/U 48.5)

10/18: South Dakota St-32 @ Murray State (O/U 56)

10/18: Stetson @ Presbyterian -28.5 (O/U 56)

10/18: Stonehill @ Yale -16.5 (O/U 46)

10/18: Stony Brook @ Monmouth -7.5 (O/U 60.5)

10/18: Tenn Tech -16.5 @ Lindenwood (O/U 54.5)

10/18: UT Martin @ Gardner-Webb -12 (O/U 55)

10/18: UTRGV -0.5 @ Lamar (O/U 54.5)

10/18: Valparaiso @ St. Thomas -22.5 (O/U 53.5)

10/18: Va U-Lynchburg @ Tex Southern -46 (O/U 52)

10/18: Weber State -1 @ Portland State (O/U 56)

10/18: West Georgia @ Tarleton -15 (O/U 56.5)

10/18: Western Carolina -2.5 @ Citadel (O/U 54.5)

10/18: Youngstown St -0.5 @ Illinois St (O/U 57.5)

/r/FCS Sportsbook - 2025

docs.google.com

 

[s--k]

Connelly S&P+

Alcorn State 25.1, Florida A&M 24.8

Brown 28.2, Princeton 24.1

Bucknell 30.1, Cornell 27.6

Central Connecticut 27.6, Wagner 10.9

Dartmouth 36.0, Fordham 16.5

Dayton 28.7, Butler 19.0

Drake 37.2, Davidson 18.0

Duquesne 27.9, Mercyhurst 16.8

Eastern Kentucky 33.4, North Alabama 23.4

ETSU 28.3, Chattanooga 26.1

Furman 23.6, Wofford 21.3

Gardner-Webb 32.2, UT Martin 23.9

Georgetown 28.7, Colgate 27.1

Grambling 29.9, UAPB 24.0

Harvard 36.4, Merrimack 7.3

Howard 24.8, Tennessee State 20.9

Idaho 35.4, Eastern Washington 26.8

Illinois State 34.8, Youngstown State 27.1

Incarnate Word 35.3, East Texas A&M 15.3

Lamar 26.5, UTRGV 17.4

Long Island 19.4, Robert Morris 17.1

Marist 25.4, Morehead State 24.9

McNeese State 24.3, Houston Christian 21.4

Monmouth 36.3, Stony Brook 29.8

Montana 39.1, Sacred Heart 14.5

New Hampshire 31.9, Campbell 24.1

North Dakota 31.7, Southern Illinois 29.5

North Dakota State 46.2, Indiana State 11.9

Penn 25.3, Columbia 18.7

Prairie View A&M 25.7, Southern U. 23.6

Presbyterian 39.8, Stetson 14.5

Rhode Island 32.0, Albany-NY 15.0

Richmond 26.8, Holy Cross 20.3

Sacramento State 38.1, Northern Colorado 17.5

Samford 27.4, VMI 24.4

SE Missouri State 30.8, Eastern Illinois 23.0

South Dakota 29.3, Northern Iowa 21.4

South Dakota State 50.3, Murray State 9.1

Southeastern Louisiana 39.5, Northwestern St 7.6

Southern Utah 35.0, Abilene Christian 33.3

St. Thomas 36.8, Valparaiso 11.7

Stephen F. Austin 32.2, Nicholls State 9.6

Tarleton State 42.5, West Georgia 20.3

Tennessee Tech 36.0, Lindenwood 17.4

Villanova 39.0, Hampton 14.7

Weber State 34.5, Portland State 27.5

Western Carolina 31.6, The Citadel 24.9

Western Illinois 30.3, Charleston Southern 28.8

William & Mary 27.4, Elon 26.2

Yale 35.9, Stonehill 7.1

18-Oct

#######

Lafayette at Oregon State

Oregon State

9.2

72%

34-24

2025 SP+

docs.google.com

 

[s--k]

Tough seeing that Towson fumbled at the M35 and M30 and missed a FG from the M20 in the 11 pt loss (+10.5). Monmouth only outgained them 448-418 (6.2-6.3). Towson just could not get them off the field or even hold them to a 3rd down on the drive Monmouth took the score from 35-31 to 42-31 with 2min left.

 

[s--k]

Wow, Towson has been outgained in every game this year since the opener at Norfolk. Outgained by avg 90.5 ypg. One of those is the Maryland game (-147). Towson did win 2 of the 5 vs FCS, but 0-4-1 ATS.

Towson avg 315ypg vs FCS this year prior to last week. They gained 418y on Monmouth D. Towson D held Monmouth 128y below their season average, but the scored 42 still (ssn avg was 45.2). Was Monmouth's second best yards per pt game (10.7, best was 9.6 on Fordham)

 

[sleepy]

Just read that Joshua Wood didn't play against Northern Colorado

Unreal the number of QB's that didn't suit up this last week

Idaho (2-4, 0-2 Big Sky) came into the Big Sky Conference game ranked 11th and 13th in Football Championship Subdivision polls last week. The Vandals, though, played without starting quarterback Joshua Wood, a talented, dual-threat transfer from Fresno State. UNC took advantage, scoring on its first four possessions of the game to build a 35-17 halftime lead.

 

[s--k]

Another FCS-FCS bad beat on ESPN. Of course it is Lamar - East Texas A&M

 

[B.A.R.]

Another FCS-FCS bad beat on ESPN. Of course it is Lamar - East Texas A&M

I just watched that - wow!

 

[s--k]

I just watched that - wow!

It went Over because of that too. 56 pts on 677 combined yards, game had 3 defensive scores.

The line opened at 13.5. I went 1-0-1 on that BS, which basically didn't matter for me. But anybody who bet it day of game had 7.5 or 8.5 unless they bought to an alt number. Lamar had 7 of their 22 first downs by penalty, the final one began one of those crazy series of events.

 

[s--k]

Oregon State is bad I have heard. I have no idea what this game goes like. Vs teams their own size Lafayette O is very capable. The D can be vulnerable.

 

[carolinablue]

View attachment 103145

Oregon State is bad I have heard. I have no idea what this game goes like. Vs teams their own size Lafayette O is very capable. The D can be vulnerable.

Oregon State is winless and has played worse than expected this season as I actually had them at home in week 1 (loss). Just fired their coach after the 0-7 start so this one is a stay away for me as I never know what to expect after a firing. With that said I was expecting 17 or less so if it crosses 21, Lafayette may be worth a shot.

 

[s--k]

Looking over some things, hope to get into some games later.

There will be an FCS playoff committee release of top 10 at 2:00. Rankings and playoff talk does not interest me so much. However, something up for debate relating to Tarleton State, not only has their strength of schedule been weak to date, they have not been playing like same team we saw in September. Know QB is out. Hear people say bunch of other players are out too, although early season talk was how deep their team was and how many players they rotate.

Anway, how about this: Tarleton started the year 5-0 ATS with the 5th cover being perhaps lucky as they got a break-away TD run while they were killing clock to cover the closing number. So we'll call that somewhat lucky, then the last 2 games, only beat SUU by 10 laying 20.5 (trailed by 7 at HT) and last week at Utah Tech won by 18, but misleading in the fact that Utah Tech muffed a punt inside their own 10 with 1min left and Tarleton had a 3p3y TD drive to cap the scoring and making it look a little better then it was. Tarleton only led 20-16 3Q. Utah Tech has played a bunch of teams tough this year granted, but for a top 5, maybe top 3 team in some people's eyes Tarleton is up for a 'what have you done for me lately' type conversation.

Hope Wynder can play for West Georgia this week. Will be the first team Tarleton has played all year long that currently has a winning record.

 

[sleepy]

Hopefully lines don't start coming out at 1am again.

Last week was a long night. Didn't get home until 4am.

 

[s--k]

Hopefully lines don't start coming out at 1am again.

Last week was a long night. Didn't get home until 4am.

A lot of the times last year I remember Friday afternoon, which would be nice for a change

 

[steponaduck]

Oregon State is winless and has played worse than expected this season as I actually had them at home in week 1 (loss). Just fired their coach after the 0-7 start so this one is a stay away for me as I never know what to expect after a firing. With that said I was expecting 17 or less so if it crosses 21, Lafayette may be worth a shot.

its 22.5 at current. total 54.5

 

[carolinablue]

its 22.5 at current. total 54.5

Fully expect it to go up as almost every FBS v FCS game seems to do, as I jump on the fav at open most times, but not this one. No idea how OSU will respond so not touching this one unless it hits maybe 28.5+ which it probably won’t.

 

[s--k]

Furman at Wofford. Seeing the 3 PR favor Wofford slightly, S&P has Furman winning by 2.3. Last year both these teams were bad. Furman was just off their upset loss at VMI and Wofford had just upset Samford. Believe then Wofford QB Odum was in his second game back from injury and Wofford won 19-13 as a 6.5 pt road dog, Terriers outgained them by 101y and the Wofford D was pretty great that day. Furman O was of course terrible last year. Looked pretty terrible last week! Moved it a bunch, 356y, but could only score 7 pts, 1 TD on 5 RZ trips and 5 turnovers! I was aware of some injuries to their 2 best WRs but apparently their entire WR unit has been ravaged by injuries. Really though, more concerning the Furman D. WCU, who is not a strong run team, they ran for 302 (6.7) and ETSU 2 games ago (who is a strong run team) they ran for 251 (5.6). They beat ETSU by 9 (95y pick-six with :00 left for the additional margin). ET had a TD called back by penalty earlier and then had a FG on that drive blk'd. Campbell led Furman 24-18 4Q. Really, what game has Furman looked good in all year? Beat W&M with just 237y in the opener, we know PC came back on them. Think I will say, this actually is just not a very good Furman team, then the injuries to key WRs make it worse. Can we believe Wofford is much better? Scored 31 on Norfolk last week, Terrier O came in avg just 16.75 ppg in 4 previous FCS games. Had been outgained in every FCS game by an average of 197ypg, then they outgain Norfolk by 193! Man Norfolk is bad, I feel bad I have bet them a couple times this year including last week. So a one-off for Wofford? Played WCU tough. Played Mercer tough. Maybe Wofford at home is the pick to win this one. Will have to watch if the total is too high, like upper 40s...Wofford 5-1 to the Under with the 1 Over being 43 combined pts on a 41.5 pt total in the Mercer game. Last week was tight, 45pts combined on a 45.5 pt total. Furman has gone Under 5-1 also, only Over was the 77 combined pts vs PC in OT.

 

[sleepy]

Furman at Wofford. Seeing the 3 PR favor Wofford slightly, S&P has Furman winning by 2.3. Last year both these teams were bad. Furman was just off their upset loss at VMI and Wofford had just upset Samford. Believe then Wofford QB Odum was in his second game back from injury and Wofford won 19-13 as a 6.5 pt road dog, Terriers outgained them by 101y and the Wofford D was pretty great that day. Furman O was of course terrible last year. Looked pretty terrible last week! Moved it a bunch, 356y, but could only score 7 pts, 1 TD on 5 RZ trips and 5 turnovers! I was aware of some injuries to their 2 best WRs but apparently their entire WR unit has been ravaged by injuries. Really though, more concerning the Furman D. WCU, who is not a strong run team, they ran for 302 (6.7) and ETSU 2 games ago (who is a strong run team) they ran for 251 (5.6). They beat ETSU by 9 (95y pick-six with :00 left for the additional margin). ET had a TD called back by penalty earlier and then had a FG on that drive blk'd. Campbell led Furman 24-18 4Q. Really, what game has Furman looked good in all year? Beat W&M with just 237y in the opener, we know PC came back on them. Think I will say, this actually is just not a very good Furman team, then the injuries to key WRs make it worse. Can we believe Wofford is much better? Scored 31 on Norfolk last week, Terrier O came in avg just 16.75 ppg in 4 previous FCS games. Had been outgained in every FCS game by an average of 197ypg, then they outgain Norfolk by 193! Man Norfolk is bad, I feel bad I have bet them a couple times this year including last week. So a one-off for Wofford? Played WCU tough. Played Mercer tough. Maybe Wofford at home is the pick to win this one. Will have to watch if the total is too high, like upper 40s...Wofford 5-1 to the Under with the 1 Over being 43 combined pts on a 41.5 pt total in the Mercer game. Last week was tight, 45pts combined on a 45.5 pt total. Furman has gone Under 5-1 also, only Over was the 77 combined pts vs PC in OT.

Wofford used a new QB last week

Guy was never that good and obviously Norfolk defense is bad bad bad.

 

[s--k]

Not sure if Brown has ever been favored vs Princeton? I assume they probably have at some point, but not since atleast 2018. That doesn't mean Brown hasn't beat the Tigers, but it's rare...just 2 of the last 12 in the series have been Brown wins. 2023, Brown +2 at home, won in OT. Brown passing O had a very good day, won despite -2 TO margin and the Brown D shut down what had become a suspect, and has reamined so the last 3 years, Princeton O. Brown also won 2015 38-31, which is before I was into FCS and isn't really relavent to now. But point being, Princeton does not lose to Brown most of the time. And Brown looks like unanimous favorite by the PRs with an S&P pick to win by 4.

Brown was a good fade canidate last week, but Bryant was without their starting QB and it started with Brown looking like a good fade candidate. Bryant led 6-0, 12-0 HT, 12-7, 19-15 mid 3Q and then Brown took their first lead of the game mid 4Q and ended up winning 29-19 as a 5.5 pt fav. Brown had virtually no O 1H, but in the 2H they scored TDs on 4 of 5 drives. Bryant O was obviously limited without Myer at QB and Brown outgained them 460-350 (5.5-5.6).

I would think we all expected Mercer to beat Princeton was just a matter of how it was going to go and it went very poorly for the Tigers. Princeton could not advance past the 50 in the 1H, the only time they were in Mercer territory is when they happened to start a possession there. Down 7-28 2H they were SOD back-back at M19 & M35. Mercer beat them badly 38-14 with a 503-257 yard edge! (6.9-4.0). Princeton's best O game was the opener vs SD. They scored 38 on Lafayette the next week, but 21 were off TOs with a couple short fields, they only had 328y (4.4) that game. O wasn't good again hosting Columbia, just 17 pts of 352y (5.3). And this is not new for Princeton their O has not been good now for years.

Similarly last year, Princeton played Brown the game after being beat by Mercer. And also Princeton hadn't show much on O up to that point either. But that Princeton O scored their 3rd most points of the year (29) and gained their 2nd most yards of the year (379 6.2) vs Brown that Friday night. Brown turned it over 5x, which is something Brown does with some frequency, losing the turnover battle. And Brown historically isn't one of the best Ds in the Ivy either. Hipa was the Princeton QB and he is one of the QBs playing for Princeton now.

I never really like the Princeton O since they dropped off the map from the 2021/22 teams. The Princeton D is kind of meh also now, which it was always good before last year. Let's take the Columbia game out because Columbia is a bad O...Princeton D hasn't done much vs their other 3 opponents in terms of stopping or slowing them. Only 1 sack on the year, 10 TFLs, they allow a high pass completion rate and opponents convert well on 3rd down against them.

I might be talking Over here? Would like it to be in the upper 40s, but will probably be in the 50s. Just assuming that vs the Brown D Princeton O will be better than normal. Brown has actually gone Under every game this year, but the first 2 were one-sided games which are tough for Overs and the URI game stayed Under 49.5 as they combined for 49 (Rhoddy fumbled going into the EZ in that one and each team missed a FG). Brown put up 460y on Bryant last week, but only scored 29pts. They were SOD at the BR18 which hurt them. Maybe I don't know about an Over either. Would have to be a good number to entice that probably doesn't show.

Would assume a close game, if catching a FG+ Princeton would be my pick. Sagarin and Reddit actually have 6.8 & 8.5! Can't imagine they release a number like that.

 

[s--k]

A much shorter take here, like last week, if the Harvard line is in the 20s I think you have to take them no matter what. If it is in the 30s it becomes a debate. As much as people nationally like this Harvard team, it's not like they win by "much". And I'm saying that in terms of point spread, they don't win by more than say 5 TDs "much". Sure 52 on Stetson shows their full capability, but "only" 34 on Brown, "only" 35 on Holy Cross. They didn't beat anyone by more than 35 last year. So the hope is for a line in the 20s and the PRs think it can be. I'm just not sure nationally with all the attention Harvard gets if they release anything below 28. Harvard's coach was not happy with their performance last week vs Cornell, and with reason. This team should do much better vs a bottom Ivy team. It's not that the final was 34-10 that he was upset about, it is the fact the game was just 20-10 4Q that upset him. So I would expect them to really come here focused to deliver the kind of game they know they can and Merrimack, isn't exactly an easy out, but they are not a threatening offense at all. Merrimack has only scored over 20 once vs FCS all year, 24 on Robert Morris and that game was just 10-7 entering the 4Q. Maybe I entertain laying up to 31 with the Crimson here. They should be very motivated off last week and Merrimack is the right team to take out some frustrations against (Maine just ran for 241 6.3ypc on them and Stony Brook ran for 251 5.7ypc).

 

[s--k]

Yale is only 1-3 ATS as a 13+ favorite the last 2 years and the one cover came by just a single point. They had one opportunity as this kind of fav this year -18.5 hosting Cornell and while they won by 17, you might've seen my call that game very misleading before. It was just 27-24 when Yale got back-back INTs very late 4Q and Yale piled on 2 TDs in the final couple minutes including a long pick-six. The offense hasn't been that good yet (avg just 329 ypg with 4.9ypp) and the D has been run on by Lehigh and Dartmouth, both of those Os are better than Stonehill however. Still, consider, Cornell put up 400y on them and 5.7 ypp!

Yale O should have success vs Stonehill D, especially the run O (Laf ran for 319y 7.8 on SH). They leaned on Pitsenberger last week 34att-138y and he was #2 receiver also. He had a big day vs Cornell as well 28att-142-3TD. The passing game has weapons, a different receiver has led them each of the last 3 weeks, but Reno has 4 INTs in those games as he continues to gain experience in his first year starting. So Yale O does have potential for a good game. SH D was shredded at Duquesne last time out and Lafayette did the same back in week 2. It's a little confusing as Maine had a very off game vs the SH D which I must think is just a fluke. Penn O was fine, but didn't exactly light them up though. SH O has still struggled vs most everyone with the exception being they found some O 2H after Lafayette was up big on them.

SH has pulled a couple upsets (Maine and LIU) but have been outgained in every game by an avg of 87 ypg. Despite that they are either 4-2 or 5-1 ATS this year.

All things considered, think I have to lean Yale, but probably won't like the line based off what the PRs project (27.5/17.7/16). S&P calls for a 29pt win. SH was only dogged by 7.5 at Duq, but were -20 at Maine. I could swallow up to 13.5 probably. Doubt that's the line.

 

[s--k]

Can't have much faith in either a Robert Morris or Long Island pick. LIU has been a hard team to get a grasp on and their QB situation has been rough. 0-3 SU & ATS vs FCS. Robert Morris might've actually found their O behind a new QB as was posted in one of the earlier posts in this thread. Having said that, some of the PRs are indicating this line to be 7.5 - 11? Maybe if this is who we thought LIU would be, or how they finished the second half of last year I could see that. S&P has a 19.4-17.4 game, which seems more believeable. RM is way way different then last year so can't compare much to last year. LIU off bye week to try and get things figured out and if they do, they should have tools for some O. Just can't assume it comes together out of nowhere.

 

[carolinablue]

Here are some I will be waiting on but not gonna stay until 3am ha

Harvard
Incarnate word
Nova
Drake
S Dakota state
St Thomas
SELA
CCSU
Tenn tech ha
Dayton
Duquesne
N Dakota State
Sac State
Illinois state

Might have missed a couple as I’m doing this without notes

 

[s--k]

Dayton in line to be a Pioneer contender and Butler just played a tough game vs the other contender last week PC. Butler typically trailed by 2-8 pts 1H last week, but 2H they took leads 19-18 and 22-18, but PC regained control and Butler kicked a late late FG to cut 9 pt game to 6 in an attempt to get an onside kick and hail mary. Butler had a 40:20 TOP edge and a 388-385 (4.7-8.8) yard edge. PC's O was much more effective, they just didn't have the ball that much and Butler's gameplan appears to be play keep away. PC the assumed class of the league, Dayton is right up there record-wise, but I don't know if Dayton is actually on that level. They just got done playing the 3 worst teams in the Pioneer (and 3 of the worst in the country) and Dayton did what they were supposed to do. I wonder however if Dayton and Butler are actually pretty even actually. Last year Dayton traveled to Butler 4-1. Dayton won to move to 5-1. Dayton won by 7 and outgained them by 60y, it was some Butler mistakes that aided, muffed punt at own 10, 2 RZ FGs, fum at D40 driving on their final possession. Anyway, Dayton went on to lose 4 of their next 5. With the easy schedule so far, is this Dayton team set up for a similar fate? Can't know. Do know that Butler is going to be much tougher than Valpo, Morehead and Stetson - the last 3 Dayton opponents. Probably a close game.

 

[sleepy]

Next week I'm going to plan to get here at 12:00am

They now wait until everyone is sleeping and then post the games

 

[sleepy]

Why does Delaware even bother trying to run the ball? They can't even get back to the line of scrimmage. This Jacksonville QB is about as bad as I've seen. Hard to believe they benched Wimsatt for this turd.

 

[s--k]

Fordham was Dartmouth's season opener last year and Fordham was about to hit rock bottom through this game and in the following loss to Monmouth. This Fordham team does play with more ability on O, the D gives up tons of yards vs everyone except Holy Cross who has really struggled to find any O this year. They got enough stops vs Lafayette to allow them to cover by .5 before the bye week. The passing O has had some moments, but they do give up a lot of negative plays sacks/TFLs and have had some very bad 3rd down O games and they have only scored 4 TDs on 14 RZ trips thier last 4 games. Not an O you can count on and a D you never want to rely on.

I was fairly high on Dartmouth at the beginning of the year as an Ivy contender, but maybe they are closer to above average rather than good? Like their wins the first 2 weeks, although they were close and could've went either way. A lot of things went wrong for them vs Penn. Yale...again that game could've gone either way. It isn't unreasonable to see how if a few plays go different, this team could come in here 0-4. I'd also argue they could beat Penn if they played again. Point being, it's a team that has yet to really control a game and look superior and the opponents aren't great or anything, either team could've won any of their first 4 games. Dartmouth emerged 3-1.

Saunier has been disappointing so far, 2-4 ratio on the year. Decent run game with Crowther and Saunier runs a lot. #1 3rd down O in the FCS 57.4%. Vs Fordham, Dartmouth O should do well...they gained 524y (6.9) on CCSU and 432 (6.9) on UNH in the two other non-conference games with 27 and 35 pts on O in those 2 games.

I guess I would like Dartmouth, but would want to lay TD or less, Rams might be a little fiesty at home off the bye. Massey and Sagarin have 7.5 so maybe.

 

[s--k]

Next week I'm going to plan to get here at 12:00am

They now wait until everyone is sleeping and then post the games

Not sure how late I stay up tonight. Need to be up very early anyway so might just look then if nothing is up by 11pm yet.

 

[s--k]

To his credit, duck called the St Thomas at Stetson game as I passed on it. Just wasn't in love with St Thomas, but fading Stetson vs any kind of decent team should've trumped other concerns for me in hindsight. This week I have more faith in the favorite, PC. Hose was super efficient last week at Butler 44 plays 385y (8.8) ran for 210 (7.5), hit 75% passing, 50% 3rd down, 3 of 4 TDs in the RZ, 1-1 FGs. Hurst was 2-0, Montgomery ran for 134, got a big play in the passing game. Really they had a really good game out of their O. Problem was Butler was 9-19 3rd/4th down and they controlled the clock and limited the damage PC could do with their O. Can't imagine Stetson having the kind of players that allows them to execute a similar gameplan on the road vs PC. Last year, Stetson did have a really weird game at St Thomas where they only lost by 10 and were +88 yard edge. But, in their other Pioneer road games they lost by 22 at Davidson in a game that saw 118 combined pts, 33 at Butler and 39 at San Diego. This year at Dayton they lost by 34. It's a new coaching staff this year, but that makes league road loss avg 27.6 2024/25 (which includes the 10 pt St Thomas game) and that's not to mention the a 63 pt road loss at a down UTC, and last year 42 pt loss at a poor Furman team. The Massey and Sagarin numbers have it below 4 TDs which is hard to believe considering Dayton was -25.5 and figure PC would have a higher rating then Dayton.

 

[s--k]

Oh, St Thomas played Davidson last week not Stetson, so some incorrect memory in the above post.

Drake is hosting Davidson now. Probably should lay it with Drake. They beat Valpo 41-0 -24.5 last home game. Won on the road at Stetson by 39 last year, but those are the only two Dl wins that Drake has which would cover a number like they will be favored by here. Davidson still looking for answers on O and D. They lost at Stetson, so pretty bad team right here. I do figure Drake as more of a grind it out team rather than a big play explosive team and might have some concerns on a big spread a long those lines. But when you look at the Davidson D, I don't know anyone that could be worse honestly. Stetson ran for 384 (8.0) and gained 474 (8.3) overall! Can't see them figuring things out this week. Will be curious what the number is.

Edit - here are the Davidson ncaa stat ranks
scoring D #126 (45ppg)
run D #121 (243.7ypg)
pass eff D #115
3rd down D #104 (47.1%)

 

[carolinablue]

To his credit, duck called the St Thomas at Stetson game as I passed on it. Just wasn't in love with St Thomas, but fading Stetson vs any kind of decent team should've trumped other concerns for me in hindsight. This week I have more faith in the favorite, PC. Hose was super efficient last week at Butler 44 plays 385y (8.8) ran for 210 (7.5), hit 75% passing, 50% 3rd down, 3 of 4 TDs in the RZ, 1-1 FGs. Hurst was 2-0, Montgomery ran for 134, got a big play in the passing game. Really they had a really good game out of their O. Problem was Butler was 9-19 3rd/4th down and they controlled the clock and limited the damage PC could do with their O. Can't imagine Stetson having the kind of players that allows them to execute a similar gameplan on the road vs PC. Last year, Stetson did have a really weird game at St Thomas where they only lost by 10 and were +88 yard edge. But, in their other Pioneer road games they lost by 22 at Davidson in a game that saw 118 combined pts, 33 at Butler and 39 at San Diego. This year at Dayton they lost by 34. It's a new coaching staff this year, but that makes league road loss avg 27.6 2024/25 (which includes the 10 pt St Thomas game) and that's not to mention the a 63 pt road loss at a down UTC, and last year 42 pt loss at a poor Furman team. The Massey and Sagarin numbers have it below 4 TDs which is hard to believe considering Dayton was -25.5 and figure PC would have a higher rating then Dayton.

I’m thinking this one will be around 31.5 and I don’t think I can lay that many with Presby, even as a Stetson fade

 

[carolinablue]

Oh, St Thomas played Davidson last week not Stetson, so some incorrect memory in the above post.

Drake is hosting Davidson now. Probably should lay it with Drake. They beat Valpo 41-0 -24.5 last home game. Won on the road at Stetson by 39 last year, but those are the only two Dl wins that Drake has which would cover a number like they will be favored by here. Davidson still looking for answers on O and D. They lost at Stetson, so pretty bad team right here. I do figure Drake as more of a grind it out team rather than a big play explosive team and might have some concerns on a big spread a long those lines. But when you look at the Davidson D, I don't know anyone that could be worse honestly. Stetson ran for 384 (8.0) and gained 474 (8.3) overall! Can't see them figuring things out this week. Will be curious what the number is.

I’m thinking this one will also be 31.5 although I’m hoping for 23.5

 

[s--k]

Ironically, Rucker was out last year when Bucknell hosted Cornell and Bison lost 21-34 and were outgained 331-465 (4.9-5.1) with Hardyway at QB. Cornell led 21-0 with a pick-six had some other short fields due to turnovers and it was 34-14 at one point 2H. Rucker missed last week and I don't know his status this week. Hand injury? There is a Bucknell message board but no activity on this week's game yet there. I wouldn't want to lay pts with Cornell if Rucker is playing, but if he is out I could ML Cornell perhaps. I don't know if I really want to. Cornell has had some major turnover problems and the O is very inconsistent. They did gain 458 (5.7) on Colgate and 400 (4.2) on Yale. Likely I don't take anything here.

 

[sleepy]

Oh, St Thomas played Davidson last week not Stetson, so some incorrect memory in the above post.

Drake is hosting Davidson now. Probably should lay it with Drake. They beat Valpo 41-0 -24.5 last home game. Won on the road at Stetson by 39 last year, but those are the only two Dl wins that Drake has which would cover a number like they will be favored by here. Davidson still looking for answers on O and D. They lost at Stetson, so pretty bad team right here. I do figure Drake as more of a grind it out team rather than a big play explosive team and might have some concerns on a big spread a long those lines. But when you look at the Davidson D, I don't know anyone that could be worse honestly. Stetson ran for 384 (8.0) and gained 474 (8.3) overall! Can't see them figuring things out this week. Will be curious what the number is.

Edit - here are the Davidson ncaa stat ranks
scoring D #126 (45ppg)
run D #121 (243.7ypg)
pass eff D #115
3rd down D #104 (47.1%)

St. Thomas is so unpredictable. They could win by 40 or it could be a 6-6 game in the fourth quarter. Plus the QB got hurt last game.

 

[carolinablue]

St. Thomas is so unpredictable. They could win by 40 or it could be a 6-6 game in the fourth quarter. Plus the QB got hurt last game.

Hoping for 21 or less but thinking it will open at 24.5