Week 8 in the FCS

s--k said:
Wheeling at West Virginia State seems interesting. 3-3 vs 4-2. S&P has WVSU 33.6-25.8 and REddit WVSU-6. Massey is the one that has it closer -2.5 which reflects the -117 ML. So seems like WVSU is cheap compared to the other two PRs. Wheeling has won the last 2 though. 2 and by 7. Hmmm
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Looks like it is good D (Wheeling) vs good O (WV State). I took the low favorite ML for the home team
 
Was looking towards 6-1 Emory & Henry on homecoming vs 4-2 Wingate. Reddit has them -6.5, S&P has them winning 28.5-24.3. MAssey is the one that has them -.5 which is the reason for the -115 price. Wingate is better historically? A below .500 Emory & Henry beat them here at home in 2023. Maybe Wingate is a step down this year? I'll take Emory & Henry
 
s--k said:
Was looking towards 6-1 Emory & Henry on homecoming vs 4-2 Wingate. Reddit has them -6.5, S&P has them winning 28.5-24.3. MAssey is the one that has them -.5 which is the reason for the -115 price. Wingate is better historically? A below .500 Emory & Henry beat them here at home in 2023. Maybe Wingate is a step down this year? I'll take Emory & Henry
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Not sure what the catch is for Emory and Henry as they seem the obvious fav here. Gonna dig into this one a bit.
 
5-1 Northwood at 2-4 Hillsdale and Northwood +117? Reddit has NW-1, S&P has Hillsdale 16.1-15.9. Massey has Hillsdale -3.5 thus the -143 on them. Hillsdale has won TEN straight in the series though
 
s--k said:
5-1 Northwood at 2-4 Hillsdale and Northwood +117? Reddit has NW-1, S&P has Hillsdale 16.1-15.9. Massey has Hillsdale -3.5 thus the -143 on them. Hillsdale has won TEN straight in the series though
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Curious if you have any read on whether Massey has been a better indication of ATS W/L than Reddit lines for the D2? In other words, is better strategy to side with Massey line or Reddit line when it comes to D2?
 
He has always said that one negative against Massey is that he believes they weigh past performance, perhaps up to the last 3 years into their numbers. Where as it is possible the others are more current let's say. I can't go beyond just a surface statement like that. I don't track the PRs accuracy or performance vs FCS either, which I feel like I should just no time for it
 
And I think S&P+ is pretty highly regarded. Whether that extends to Dll I'm not sure. No personal opinion on my part there, but because of that broad respect, I tend to give it a little more influence
 
s--k said:
He has always said that one negative against Massey is that he believes they weigh past performance, perhaps up to the last 3 years into their numbers. Where as it is possible the others are more current let's say. I can't go beyond just a surface statement like that. I don't track the PRs accuracy or performance vs FCS either, which I feel like I should just no time for it
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Appreciate the response! Sometimes I think to myself when I retire I’m just gonna go deep into all the numbers and such as I enjoy that kind of stuff but only so many hours to go around.
 
I think the reddit line is more accurate. But for me, the MB lines seem to come straight from Massey, which is why we've seen some really bad numbers more so in the 1st month of the season.

They are starting to adjust more.
 
s--k said:
5-1 Northwood at 2-4 Hillsdale and Northwood +117? Reddit has NW-1, S&P has Hillsdale 16.1-15.9. Massey has Hillsdale -3.5 thus the -143 on them. Hillsdale has won TEN straight in the series though
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Hillsdale by far played the better schedule. Northwood is improved this year. Enough to buck history, I passed on this one.
 
s--k said:
Was looking towards 6-1 Emory & Henry on homecoming vs 4-2 Wingate. Reddit has them -6.5, S&P has them winning 28.5-24.3. MAssey is the one that has them -.5 which is the reason for the -115 price. Wingate is better historically? A below .500 Emory & Henry beat them here at home in 2023. Maybe Wingate is a step down this year? I'll take Emory & Henry
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I played E&H
 
Kearney has lost the last 2 vs Missouri Southern. I know nothing, just surprising...would those have been upsets or had these been even teams? Kearney having a good year 5-2, Missouri Southern just 2-4. I don't mind a big favorite even 4:1 if it seems pretty solid. Just worry if Missouri Southern has their number or something
 
s--k said:
Kearney has lost the last 2 vs Missouri Southern. I know nothing, just surprising...would those have been upsets or had these been even teams? Kearney having a good year 5-2, Missouri Southern just 2-4. I don't mind a big favorite even 4:1 if it seems pretty solid. Just worry if Missouri Southern has their number or something
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Honestly had some 3 and 4 team parlays and threw Kearney out at the last minute. I like their squad. Just might be a little scary at that number on the road.

I think I like NW Missouri St at a better number at home.
 
I took UNC Pembroke. Good QB I figure...Tough schedule for Greenville, this is the third top 20 team they have hosted, lost the other 2
 
MB leaving Dll lines up for long time this morning...probably at the expense of further delaying the FCS lines
 
MASSEY RATINGS
In this week's Massey Ratings, Northwest ranks No. 5 in the nation and Fort Hays State is ranked No. 20.
Northwest is one of five teams with both a top-10 ranked offense and defense –

Ferris State (Off. - 1; Def. - 2)
Harding (Off. - 2; Def. 1)
Northwest Mo. St. (Off. - 6; Def. - 7)
Central Washington (Off. - 7; Def. - 6)
Grand Valley State (Off. - 8; Def. - 4)
 
I worry about fake lighting delays

Still going to take a shot on under since it is 100% rain all day

I think it would have been bet down much more at FD if not for the new shitty limits

1760789694054.png
 
sleepy said:
I worry about fake lighting delays

Still going to take a shot on under since it is 100% rain all day

I think it would have been bet down much more at FD if not for the new shitty limits

View attachment 103250
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Agree. Only dropped 2 pts so far. Anticipating it drops more once weather news spreads.

And those other games that moved up their times, if you know how these books can make mistakes...there was a past post opportunity at DK last week and they honored the results. So, that is always something to key an eye on
 
s--k said:
Agree. Only dropped 2 pts so far. Anticipating it drops more once weather news spreads.

And those other games that moved up their times, if you know how these books can make mistakes...there was a past post opportunity at DK last week and they honored the results. So, that is always something to key an eye on
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Will keep an eye on

Can be at the casino in an hour if I drive fast
 
Clarion - California(Pa) total a little low at 52.5? Reddit 56 and S&P has 39.6-22.1 = 61.7
 
s--k said:
Clarion - California(Pa) total a little low at 52.5? Reddit 56 and S&P has 39.6-22.1 = 61.7
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Cal(Pa) would've only gone Over the 52.5 twice, Clarion would've gone Over that number 4 of 6 and the 4 were really high combined scores
 
s--k said:
Cal(Pa) would've only gone Over the 52.5 twice, Clarion would've gone Over that number 4 of 6 and the 4 were really high combined scores
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In general I think Massey totals are low.

This seems to go over. As did the Slippery Rock Indiana game.
 
Central Missouri at Washburn 63.5 high though? Reddit 56, S&P 58.5

The first 3 Mules games would've gone Under that. The last 3 would've gone Over. Washburn games, only 1 all year would've eclipsed 63.5
 
s--k said:
Central Missouri at Washburn 63.5 high though? Reddit 56, S&P 58.5

The first 3 Mules games would've gone Under that. The last 3 would've gone Over. Washburn games, only 1 all year would've eclipsed 63.5
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Yeah I don't like that total
 
I asked MB to leave Dll lines up longer, they did, and I rewarded them with 12 plays/parlays which is probably my most I've had. So that's fun
 
Permian Basin - West Oregon is cool game. Low total? Think I got burned on a West Oregon total last week
 
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