Week 8 Discussion
- Thread starter D-Woww
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i just dont see in atl what it seems lots of other ppl do? no clue why i keep hearing what a great deal it is getting falcons with points, if you forget about seasons past and just look at their active roster (white out again), i dont see that good of a team, and it was always a team that won a ton of close gms, that catches up to you eventually, especially when you missing your best playmakers..def not sold on Jackson being some magical answer for this team..seems like pp really low on a solid zona club simply cause they been getting whipped by physically tougher teams that would have smoked atl as well. this be the softest defense cards have seen all yr, palmer gets time and he should carve this team up...
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea since they changed it to where there no practice that week it seems teams tend to mail it in ready for a little vacation..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i could just as easily play this opposed to gm over, dont think it matters, pretty confident skins get 21+ so gm over was fine with me but i agree den prob score at least 38..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i havnt had a ton of time with the card but it seriously my fav play that ive found thus far..
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
not counting Pit/Min (London) game, bc both were pre byes...but this season Pre Bye teams are 4-10 SU (2 of those wins last week) and 5-9 ATS.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
pretty sure they were really bad last year as well.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
they were, check Rj bell's trends above
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Check out the game in ATL last year. I noticed it while researching the Jets game, trying to see how the Falcons had covered large spreads versus good defenses in the past. Ryan threw 5 picks in that game and the Falcons turned it over a total of 6 times, and only scored one offensive TD. Falcons won the game in the 4th quarter but didn’t cover the spread against the Cards and Ryan Lindley who threw for a whopping 64 yards.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I will not be gambling the game but the cardinals defense will by far be the most impressive unit on the field on sunday
question is...can the offensive deficiencies take advantage of this? defense might win the game for the home team by themselves, if the offense can exploit a weak falcons defense it could be ugly
question is...can the offensive deficiencies take advantage of this? defense might win the game for the home team by themselves, if the offense can exploit a weak falcons defense it could be ugly
MusicCityGambler
Chill Winstonnn!
Why is the line dropping in Denver?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i teased kc with the under 45...my extreme high side on this gm was 44 and think it much lower.. never used to tease totals but these ones in the 39-41 range i find myself doing much more recently as with way gm played the tend to get close and 1 stupid ass thing can push it over that number but i find the 6 points generally keeps me clean on them... i think decent chance brownies keep it within the number if cambel doesnt make to many really bad mistakes but i still dont see how browns generate much offense as you gotta run or at least have the threat against kc and they do not, not to mention they not all that good in red zone and kc d is very good at holding teams to 3s..think it ugly but no i dont think brownies can beat them..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i played it..someone with more money than me keeps hitting it under 51 but i just think less than 51 is money as i have both teams hitting 24 at least.. biggest worry would be dal getting off to lead and playing prevent offense, hoping det comes out and takes it to them a little which forces dal to open up then the points should come in bunches..prob even "squarer" than den over but whatever im square i guess cause i like it too..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
only team allowing a higher qb rating against than atl is the jags! cards have faced a bunch of physical teams that get after the passer, clearly palmer needs time but think he gets it this week against a team that in the bottom 5 in sack percentage and has played against several teams that allow quite a few sacks.. i like zona by more than a score, maybe falcons come back and make it closer but i dont see harry douglas whipping this secondary.. id say the second best unit on the field is cards wr corp..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
for better or worse here my whole card so far...
zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..
lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...
on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..
if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..
i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...
skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..
dal/det ov 50.5 (1x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...
Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..
thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...
this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..
fish/pats ov 45 (1.5x)...i went back and forth on whether i wanted to play fish here or this total, ultimately i think the total leaves a little more room for error so this the route i took...i put this in the 48-51 range so clearly see some value here which i think is a product of pats early struggles,, gronk back for another week i feel will be even better with brady and all a sudden i think this offense is gonna get more efficient real quick..like the saints phins do some really good things scheme wise to create presser (granted with a far more talented individual pass rusher in wake), as i said before pats/saints gm i think teams that do these things dont effect a oline like pats and a qb like brady as much as they will figure out the protections and get into the right plays at the line, the last 3 weeks phins have given up damn near 68% completion percentage that not good when you already a team in the bottom half in yards per completion, you get your protections right you can beat this team with the pass. i think pats score between 27-31 in this gm..
on other side pats d is still just beat the hell up up the middle, there no way to sugar coat it, kelly not playing again..since this rash of injuries up the middle the last 3 weeks cincy rushed for 162, saints 131, and jets pounding them to the tune of 177 freaking rushing yards! look is mia run gm as strong as those teams? not really but think they may have figured some things out last week, granted against the bills who's run d isnt strong but id argue at this point it no worse than the pats so i think fish will have some success on the ground..maybe talib plays but can he be at full speed to deal with wallace? what pats gonna do with hartline and clay? tannehil is a gamer and when they get in the red zone they punch it in and dont think this depleted pats group will stop them... i got fish in the 21-24 point range here so if you add it up my low end is higher than this total...
pats could come out with the pissed off whipping stick which is why i choose total over taking the points cause even if that the case mai has been resiliant and will put up garbage points in that senerio..
2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)
kc-.5
cle/kc under45
i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..
leaning to playing the over in pit/oak and either minny or the over in the nightcap.. gl everyone
zona-2.5 (2.5x)..look ive already talked about a lot, almost all my friends disagree with me and i gave several of them falcons +3 juice free, i expect the biggest 2 lames that i hold plays on to call atl in as 1 of their plays. i know everyone loves atl..hell ive been wrong before but i simply do not see it, no way no how.. you may ask, "banker how the hell you so confident in crappy zona team", well let me tell you again..
lets start with the fact last year when falcons were actually a good team zona came to atl as huge dogs and damn near won picking matty ice 5 times, and i cant even tell you which of the 12 scrubs zona tried at qb last yr played in this one? now lets move forward and forget about what the falcons were and focus on what they are now, a team that was built around their qb and 2 stud wrs, in case you havnt been paying attention neither of those wrs are gonna play. yea yea harry douglas looked great last week against a team that rather be on the beach than playing for their dipshit coach, now tell me with a straight face you think harry freaking douglas is gonna whip this cards secondary, i dare you cause i will laugh.. so what does this team built on offense have besides douglas? rodgers who i do like but luckily half his touches gonna be taken away by a old gimpy Sjax that on his last one good leg. yes they have the ageless wonder gonzo and yea the will prob move the chains some but there will be no explosive plays and atl will have to come up with long drives for scores, long drives against a ball hawking talented defensive group that will cause mistakes and tighten up in the red zone against a atl team that been horrid inside the 20...
on other side sure Palmer has looked bad but i mean it all relative, if palmer is pressured and moved off his spot yea he is bad and the thing is look at the list of teams cards been playing, they have played a murderers row of teams that can get after the passer, falcons my friend are not that. in fact atl is 25th in the league in sack percentage and 24th with just over 2 sacks a gm facing quite a few teams that give up sacks! palmer is gonna have time to throw in this gm and when he does he will be doing it against a team that only jags allow a higher passer rating against.. then look at who palmer throwing to, fitz who getting healthier, floyd, roberts, and the kid ellington out of the backfield, tell me this isnt a vastly more talented group than what falcons are playing with, i dare u! seriously the most talented groups in this gm are the cards secondary and there wr corp (not to mention special teams)..
if im saying anything that factually incorrect by all means let me know. if all im saying is true it makes no fukkin sense why everyone is dying to play this somehow perceived sexy dog? i dont like sexy dogs anyways but this one doesnt even deserve to be in that category..i dunno what books givng cards for home field? 2.5 i guess but i would make them -3 on a neutral so getting them less than that at home im all for and it is my fav play this week..
i guess i couldnt argue with teasing atl which im sure many will cause it still that cards and even if they up matty ice could get it respectable but i honestly think cards win this by 7+...
skins/den ov 57.5 (1.5x)....seriously didnt even bother capping this or making my own number, call it laziness or whatever but im sure i would come up with something in the 60s as this has shootout written all over it, wont have time to do my numbers till later and this thing isnt gonna stop rising so it is what it is. even tho may be some rushing to run clock i think 40-30 very reasonable type score to expect..once again books are prisoners to den overs right now and personally i dont care how square it is im fine with continue taking their money on these..
dal/det ov 50.5 (1x)...not gonna get real long winded here, getting late, buzzed and wont have a lot of time in morning so trying to crank out this card.. bottom line is i put both these teams at 24+..they each score 24 it getting to 51 minimum and i put this at more like 54...clearly this "square" as hell, clearly there been some money pushing it down under 51, i dunno why, i guess a case could be made with dal running more and det can be run on, and dal playing a shell and forcing det to stall in red zone, valid concerns but at some point this gm is gonna get moving up and down the field, dez been woofing and while maybe det tries to take him away romo is very comfortable with that rookie from baylor and that little white boy in the slot, not to mention you can double dez and he can still beat you, especially this secondary..i think we get a dez/romo stafford/megatron shootout at some point in this gm as someone will fall behind and then the points will come....id love to play dal but i dont trust them to play 3 strong gms in a row and figure det needs this and will find a way to get it, which is ideal as if det takes the early lead then we dont have to worry bout dal playing prevent offense.. so lets hope det gets out early and romo ends up throwing 50 times to dez...
Buf+11 (1x).. look ive already admitted how improved and impressed i am with the saints defense, i have also said numerous times that this d does a ton with scheme to effect passing gms but it leaves them vulnerable to the run.spiller or not (pretty sure he out), bills can flat out rush the ball..buf d is doing a excellent job against the pass and brees gonna be missing his fav target again this week, if graham is out which i suspect he will be that hurts saints in the red zone where they havnt been all that effective anyway..
thadius lewis has surprised me and while i worry saints schemes may confuse him (phins also do some creative things against qbs and he held his own in that gm) i also think his legs could burn some of these looks.. do i think bills can win? no, but stay within double digits with a strong run gm and controlling the clock? damn str8 i do, the thunderdome doesnt scare me as much in these early gms and i think bills can stick around and make this a bit of a challenge before saints pull out a 7-10 point win...
this not for the faint of heart, saints d is very good at getting off the field on 3rd down, saints very good at converting 3rd downs, im not saying this might not get away but im banking on bills run gm being good enough to keep the 3rd downs at a distance that prevents ryan from dialing up a bunch a crazy stuff. im counting on fact saints offense has stalled a ton in the red zone. i know saints record off a bye w Peyton is very good, i know they prob pissed after that last second loss to pats. i could prob make just a good a case for the under here as i have saints in the 24-27 range and bills in the 17-20 range so clearly i lean under and really if it goes over good chance bills bet burnt, however bills have managed at least 20 in every gm, if they can get me 20 here i really like their chances of covering this big number..
fish/pats ov 45 (1.5x)...i went back and forth on whether i wanted to play fish here or this total, ultimately i think the total leaves a little more room for error so this the route i took...i put this in the 48-51 range so clearly see some value here which i think is a product of pats early struggles,, gronk back for another week i feel will be even better with brady and all a sudden i think this offense is gonna get more efficient real quick..like the saints phins do some really good things scheme wise to create presser (granted with a far more talented individual pass rusher in wake), as i said before pats/saints gm i think teams that do these things dont effect a oline like pats and a qb like brady as much as they will figure out the protections and get into the right plays at the line, the last 3 weeks phins have given up damn near 68% completion percentage that not good when you already a team in the bottom half in yards per completion, you get your protections right you can beat this team with the pass. i think pats score between 27-31 in this gm..
on other side pats d is still just beat the hell up up the middle, there no way to sugar coat it, kelly not playing again..since this rash of injuries up the middle the last 3 weeks cincy rushed for 162, saints 131, and jets pounding them to the tune of 177 freaking rushing yards! look is mia run gm as strong as those teams? not really but think they may have figured some things out last week, granted against the bills who's run d isnt strong but id argue at this point it no worse than the pats so i think fish will have some success on the ground..maybe talib plays but can he be at full speed to deal with wallace? what pats gonna do with hartline and clay? tannehil is a gamer and when they get in the red zone they punch it in and dont think this depleted pats group will stop them... i got fish in the 21-24 point range here so if you add it up my low end is higher than this total...
pats could come out with the pissed off whipping stick which is why i choose total over taking the points cause even if that the case mai has been resiliant and will put up garbage points in that senerio..
2 team 6 point teaser (1.5x)
kc-.5
cle/kc under45
i expect this to be a defensive struggle, lots of fgs, prob few mistakes or just terrible play by browns new starter as he horrible that lead to punts, maybe a kc special teams play or pick 6.. in the end i think we talking something like 20-13 but as i been saying with these lower totals lately i dont trust them w/o that little extra cushion, if cambell comes to play maybe this more like 24-20 but that my absolute high side here and i just dont think brownies are beating kc seeing how their run gm is trash and that the way to cause kc problems and the threat just not really there..
leaning to playing the over in pit/oak and either minny or the over in the nightcap.. gl everyone
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
Boys
weather been horrible for at least a week in England,rain,'
Today its forecast for a virtual storm....high wind and rain
even if the predicted doesnt hit,it wont be the same field you saw for the pitt/vikes game,it has had a lot of rain
add;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24690552
weather been horrible for at least a week in England,rain,'
Today its forecast for a virtual storm....high wind and rain
even if the predicted doesnt hit,it wont be the same field you saw for the pitt/vikes game,it has had a lot of rain
add;http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24690552
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ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
[h=2]London and South East England[/h][h=3]Forecast Summary[/h]
- [h=4]Today[/h]Generally windy, especially in early squally rain. This soon clearing eastwards to reveal sunny spells but also isolated blustery showers, perhaps heavy and thundery for a time. Becoming generally cloudy later on, ahead of rain arriving from the southwest.
- [h=4]Tonight[/h]Heavy and persistent rain will spread northeast, coupled with increasingly strong winds. Winds strengthening further towards dawn, with potentially damaging gusts and squally showers.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
it is a crosswind as well correct?
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
I was actually just thinking about this when I took the dog out,fuckin horrible..wet and windy,cold
How much are SF gonna fancy this.Dark,windy,wet and cold...miles from home playing against the leagues rubbing rags...Im leaning to the Jags and the Under,low scoring shitfest.
Our clocks changed to winter time over night
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
sorry mate,cant help you there,Im unsure.
Id guess it swirls more in the stadium,its enclosed
have added some links mate
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ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
2da,good posts in this thread,thanks.
BiffTFinancial
Pretty much a regular
Agree, think that the chewed-up field and under are the angle on this one.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
right on, thanx..
tru
Friend of CTG
Agree though. GL
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
A couple thoughts about this game, and responses to the bolded statements
The Bills are in the top 5 rushing teams but realistically it's only because they run so much (they lead the league with 34.3 attempts per game). As far as ypc they are ranked #12 and are tied for the league lead in fumbles lost. Now likely without Spiller they will likely give Choice the ball more and have him as the third down back, and that is when Fred is most effective. Spiller prob should have sat the last two games, it's obvious he just can't make cuts, but now with him out the Bills lose the homerun threat in the run game.
Not sure where you get the idea that the Bills D has done anything at all vs the pass.... they have benefitted from ints but also lead the league with 15 td passes allowed (tied with Jax). Now Gilmore will be playing without the cast this week which should definitely help the secondary, but this is far and away the best passing attack the Bills have faced so far. Dalton threw for 337 3tds, Flacco threw for 347 2 tds (5ints), Geno threw for 331 2tds 2ints. I can't even imagine what Brees will throw for. Would say he is good for 350+ if that is the gameplan they come out with. As it stands the Bills run D is not so great so I think the Saints will be balanced enough to move the ball relatively easy. Really to me the cover just comes down to how they fare in the redzone, but I don't think Buffalo has much of a chance at all in this one.....
Regarding Thad, he has 12 rushes for 30 yards with a long of 8. If anything he has been running for his life the last two games, getting sacked 9 times in two games. The Bills have problems on the oline, and if they can't protect Thad today (I haven't seen any evidence to suggest they can) it could get ugly real quickly.
I would expect the Saints to load up vs the run and make Thad beat them
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
ManchesterUk
Fat Bloke
jimmy graham playing,spiller out
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Thanks manuk
2daBank
Voice of Reason
i find attempts to be just as important as yards at times as that helps top greatly and wears a defense down, particularly a d that isnt really built to defend the run.. ill certainly give you this is best passing gm bills have seen but it also prob the worst rush defense..far as what they do against the pass the are among the best in the league in completion percentage allowed, they do get pressure, and they have held qbs to a 6th best 77 rating, again ill acknowledge that brees and co a better offense than they have seen, although there is no aj green on this saints team at least, big plays hurt them but they have done a good job of forcing some mistakes.. i cant argue that it may get away and get away quickly but i do believe saints will be balanced, bills will chew some clock and saints have struggled most the season cashing in red zone trips while bills have been fairly strong in that area.. somehow bills manage to get to 20 every gm and i feel like if they can hit that number on offense they can cover here.. i been wrong plenty tho.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
Denver TT still a go?
