RJ Bell:
49ers vs (in London) vs. Jaguars (+16.5) -- 1 p.m.
After high profile losses to Seattle and Indy
covered 4 straight since – covering by a combined 58 points
In last 3 games combined, 49ers have been outgained yardage-wise.
Gore: 405 yards rushing last 4 games.
If spread reaches 17:
Underdogs +17 or more: 21-7 ATS (from 1992 onward)
Winless underdog (Week 6 or later): 63% ATS (since 1992)
Cowboys @ Lions (-3.5) -- 1 p.m.
Underdog has covered 71% of Dallas games (39-16 ATS the last 4 seasons)
Cowboys, after winning a game: 5-15 ATS
Detroit:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)
Giants @ Eagles (-6) -- 1 p.m.
Eagles have not covered a home game since 2011!
(losing 11 straight against the spread)
Giants on road under Caughlin: 51-32 ATS (61%)
Giants:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)
Browns @ Chiefs (-7.5) -- 1 p.m.
Alex Smith last 33 games as a starter: 27-5-1 SU
KC has defeated only one team with a winning record (Cowboys)
Road underdog off a road loss: 64% since 2003
With a low total (39), big underdog points more valuable.
The SU winner of the last 19 Cleveland games has covered 18 times (spread has mattered only once)
Bills @ Saints (-11) -- 1 p.m.
Bills week after playing Dolphins: 11-36 ATS (from 1990)
Bills last 32 games: lost against the spread by a NET 135 points combined
Saints have covered 12 of 14 regular season games under Payton
Saints under Coach Payton have covered 12 straight at home.
Saints: (Last 7 seasons): Saints have covered 62% of games at home
but less than half their games on the road
Saints off bye (4-0 ATS and SU off bye, winning by average of 17 ppg)
Saints 11-1 ATS under Coach Payton when favored by a touchdown or more
Team 4-0 or better, before losing last game: 22-37-1 next game (37% since 1992)
Dolphins @ Patriots (-6.5) -- 1 p.m.
New England has won 33 of 36 regular season home games (SU).
Belichick off a straight-up loss: covered 24 of 33 ATS
If opponent has lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 32-12 ATS (in Tom Brady era)
Tom Brady threw a TD in 52 straight games. His only TD pass in his last three games was the last second miracle vs. New Orleans.
Visitor in Miami games 54-31 ATS
Jets @ Bengals (-6.5) -- 4:05 p.m.
Bengals: 11-4 overall ATS run
Bengals have won only one game this season by more than a touchdown
After a two game road trip, Cincy has covered only 1 of 12 the next game at home
Steelers @ Raiders (+2.5) -- 4:05 p.m.
Raiders off Bye; Steelers off rivalry game against Baltimore
Oakland: lost 10 in a row SU off a bye (9 of 10 ATS).
Favorite in Raiders games: 11-3 ATS last 14
Pittsburgh has lost 7 straight ATS outside of the Eastern Time Zone
Redskins @ Broncos (-11.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Broncos have covered only 1 of last 5 games
Denver ATS at home (23-38) since 2006
Team 4-0 or better, before losing last game: 22-37-1 next game (37% since 1992)
Denver:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)
Falcons @ Cardinals (-2.5) -- 4:25 p.m.
Cards at home are 56% against the spread – last 10+ seasons (49-38 ATS)
Arizona: has not covered as a favorite since the 2011 season
Teams that played Seattle last week are winless ATS this season.
Teams favored the week after playing the Seahawks: 3-18 ATS last 21
The last 5 games, Carson Palmer has average MORE THAN 2 interceptions per game
At last count: 71% of bets back the underdog (updated at
http://SportsbookSpy.com)
Arizona:
Teams the WEEK BEFORE a bye
(when not playing another team before a bye)
have covered only 10 of 36 games (since start of last season)
Packers @ Vikings (+9) -- 8:30 p.m.
Home team in Packers games have covered 13 of 14 ATS
Home team has covered 5 in a row in this series
Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-3 ATS last 26!
GB: 32-11 ATS in Division (11 of last 12 ATS)
Green Bay plays Chicago next week
When the Vegas line opened in May on this game:
Packers were favored by 1
before last week’s games: Packers were favored by 6.5
MNF: Seahawks @ Rams (+11) -- 8:40 p.m.
Since 1990, only TWO Monday Night home teams have been bigger underdogs.
Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 23-3 ATS last 26!
Seattle: 16-5 ATS overall last 21
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (49-22-1)
On road during same period: 40% (29-44-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 93-51-2 (65% winners)
Jeff Fisher as a underdog: 87-57 ATS (60%) in his coaching career
Since 2001, Monday Night Home underdogs: 28-42 ATS (40%)
Seattle has covered 6 straight MNF games
