Week 8 Discussion Thread

[VirginiaCavs]

Oct 28 Thu 2021

7:20 PM
107	Green Bay Packers	+3½ -114	+165	O 53 -110
108	Arizona Cardinals	-3½ -106	-190	U 53 -110

Oct 31 Sun 2021

12:00 PM
251	Miami Dolphins	+13½ -113	+585	O 49½ -110
252	Buffalo Bills	-13½ -107	-805	U 49½ -110

12:00 PM
253	Carolina Panthers	+2½ +101	+125	O 47 +100
254	Atlanta Falcons	-2½ -121	-145	U 47 -120

12:00 PM
255	Philadelphia Eagles	-3 -125	-170	O 48 -108
256	Detroit Lions	+3 +105	+150	U 48 -112

12:00 PM
259	Los Angeles Rams	-14½ -110	-900	O 45½ -112
260	Houston Texans	+14½ -110	+640	U 45½ -108

12:00 PM
261	Cincinnati Bengals	-9½ -120	-435	O 43½ -105
262	New York Jets	+9½ +100	+355	U 43½ -115

12:00 PM
263	Pittsburgh Steelers	+3 -110	+140	O 43½ -110
264	Cleveland Browns	-3 -110	-160	U 43½ -110

3:05 PM
269	New England Patriots	+6 -110	+210	O 48 -115
270	Los Angeles Chargers	-6 -110	-250	U 48 -105

3:25 PM
271	Washington Football Team	+3½ -115	+145	O 43½ -110
272	Denver Broncos	-3½ -105	-165	U 43½ -110

3:25 PM
273	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-4½ -110		O 50½ -110
274	New Orleans Saints	+4½ -110		U 50½ -110

7:20 PM
275	Dallas Cowboys	-1½ -119	-133	O 53½ -112
276	Minnesota Vikings	+1½ -101	+113	U 53½ -108

Nov 1 Mon 2021

7:15 PM
277	New York Giants	+9½ -104	+345	O 52 -110
278	Kansas City Chiefs	-9½ -116	-425	U 52 -110

 

[Zeke]

Not sure they can set a line high enough to keep people from fading the Jets. They are flat out not a good team & now injury-ridden. The public is going to drive that number through the roof with how those teams both did yesterday, and they will be correct. I grabbed that at -8.5 and also threw it into a 10 pt teaser with Buffalo & LAR, who have also now moved from the opener.

Dallas is tempting laying a short road number but Minn kills me every time I bet against them. I expect that total will climb, both teams should be healthy off the bye.

 

[C-MAN]

Think GB gives Arz first loss

 

[ISU74]

Deet ML...

Chargers....NE is a fraud...

Panthers/Falcons over...Falcons ML...not laying points with that defense.

 

[ISU74]

Washington getting points interests me...I think the WFT is well coached and playing hard...like TH at QB much more than TB for Denver.

 

[C-MAN]

WFT had so many opportunities yesterday. Some bad breaks.

 

[Gandolf]

Davante Adams on the COVID list. Noooooooooooo!

 

[2daBank]

yuck,, thu night wouda been great till gandy just wrote adams prob not playing.

 

[Zeke]

Deet ML...

Chargers....NE is a fraud...

Panthers/Falcons over...Falcons ML...not laying points with that defense.

I wouldn't say NE is a fraud. They are what they are, a 3-4 team who has only beat two shitty teams. A fraud would be an undeserving 6-1 or 5-2 team. I do agree they likely get smoked in this spot though.

 

[2daBank]

here what i would worry bout with chargers, that stupid defensive philosophy that staley has where they dont just let you run but kinda beg you to do so. im sure pats will be thrilled to do just that and keep the ball for really long stretches. you also gotta consider reason they struggled so bad against a ravens d that been giving up a lot of yards and points to other teams is because chargers play calling isnt all that great so their early down success rate isnt all that good but nobody talks about it cause Herbert been so fantastic on 3rd and 4th downs, guess what ravens still do well? play good on 3rd down and situationally, i havnt looked at the numbers yet but im guessing pats defense is also good on 3rd down, red zone, 4th down, those type of things. im in no way saying pats are as good as the chargers but they have played good teams tough and i think there a pretty clear avenue for them to do the same here. i wouldnt want to lay 6 points when i assume pats will have a sizable edge in top cutesy of the 6 yards per rush chargers seem more than happy to allow playing those light boxes.. i suppose it possible they looked in the mirror during the bye and make some adjustment but up until this point and facing teams they knew liked to run they havnt done so.. talent on the rosters i agree this is no contest, i do think stylistically what they have shown and coaching wise pats will be able to keep this a one possession game.. i been wrong before tho, several times with this pats team, dont even think id bet them, i just dont like the idea of laying a td..

 

[Gandolf]

here what i would worry bout with chargers, that stupid defensive philosophy that staley has where they dont just let you run but kinda beg you to do so. im sure pats will be thrilled to do just that and keep the ball for really long stretches. you also gotta consider reason they struggled so bad against a ravens d that been giving up a lot of yards and points to other teams is because chargers play calling isnt all that great so their early down success rate isnt all that good but nobody talks about it cause Herbert been so fantastic on 3rd and 4th downs, guess what ravens still do well? play good on 3rd down and situationally, i havnt looked at the numbers yet but im guessing pats defense is also good on 3rd down, red zone, 4th down, those type of things. im in no way saying pats are as good as the chargers but they have played good teams tough and i think there a pretty clear avenue for them to do the same here. i wouldnt want to lay 6 points when i assume pats will have a sizable edge in top cutesy of the 6 yards per rush chargers seem more than happy to allow playing those light boxes.. i suppose it possible they looked in the mirror during the bye and make some adjustment but up until this point and facing teams they knew liked to run they havnt done so.. talent on the rosters i agree this is no contest, i do think stylistically what they have shown and coaching wise pats will be able to keep this a one possession game.. i been wrong before tho, several times with this pats team, dont even think id bet them, i just dont like the idea of laying a td..

Agreed. I looked at this matchup and thought Harris will have another hundred yard day.

 

[C-MAN]

Arz jumped from -3 to -6. I’m sorry, but Adams is not worth 3 pts.

 

[Zeke]

I heard yesterday they had some other guys being tested as well.

 

[Joe Public]

Not sure they can set a line high enough to keep people from fading the Jets. They are flat out not a good team & now injury-ridden. The public is going to drive that number through the roof with how those teams both did yesterday, and they will be correct. I grabbed that at -8.5 and also threw it into a 10 pt teaser with Buffalo & LAR, who have also now moved from the opener.

I'm shocked that the Bengals are laying DD on the road. Even more shocked that I honestly think they should cover it.

I also love when you bet a total assuming it will go one way, then someone lands on the Covid list and it drops two points. Looking at you, Green Bay.

 

[Gandolf]

Arz jumped from -3 to -6. I’m sorry, but Adams is not worth 3 pts.

Lazard now on the COVID list too.

 

[KJ]

Lazard now on the COVID list too.

Not familiar with the depth chart, assume that makes Cobb #1 then ?

 

[Gandolf]

Not familiar with the depth chart, assume that makes Cobb #1 then ?

Cobb is definitely #1. Amari Rodgers steps into the other spot. Tonyan probably gets a boost. Mercedes Lewis might get another ball or two. Aaron Jones can line up wide on occasion.

 

[Gandolf]

They still have the Equanimeous one too.

 

[KJ]

Cobb is definitely #1. Amari Rodgers steps into the other spot. Tonyan probably gets a boost. Mercedes Lewis might get another ball or two. Aaron Jones can line up wide on occasion.

This is what gets lost not playing fantasy. Thx, assume it will be a heavy dose of Jones whether on the ground or more likely on screens/dumps. His receiving yds might be worth a look. We all know how picky ARod is about who he's throwing to.

 

[Gandolf]

I see a lot of two tight end sets on early downs, plenty of work for Jones and Dillon, and a whole lot of Cobb in critical situations.

 

[Gandolf]

This is what gets lost not playing fantasy. Thx, assume it will be a heavy dose of Jones whether on the ground or more likely on screens/dumps. His receiving yds might be worth a look. We all know how picky ARod is about who he's throwing to.

Yeah I have Adams on my main team and I'm trying to pick up whoever will be the main beneficiary of his absence. There's 10+ targets that need to get distributed and like you said Rodgers is picky with who he trusts. He does trust Cobb,

 

[EL CAPO]

here what i would worry bout with chargers, that stupid defensive philosophy that staley has where they dont just let you run but kinda beg you to do so. im sure pats will be thrilled to do just that and keep the ball for really long stretches. you also gotta consider reason they struggled so bad against a ravens d that been giving up a lot of yards and points to other teams is because chargers play calling isnt all that great so their early down success rate isnt all that good but nobody talks about it cause Herbert been so fantastic on 3rd and 4th downs, guess what ravens still do well? play good on 3rd down and situationally, i havnt looked at the numbers yet but im guessing pats defense is also good on 3rd down, red zone, 4th down, those type of things. im in no way saying pats are as good as the chargers but they have played good teams tough and i think there a pretty clear avenue for them to do the same here. i wouldnt want to lay 6 points when i assume pats will have a sizable edge in top cutesy of the 6 yards per rush chargers seem more than happy to allow playing those light boxes.. i suppose it possible they looked in the mirror during the bye and make some adjustment but up until this point and facing teams they knew liked to run they havnt done so.. talent on the rosters i agree this is no contest, i do think stylistically what they have shown and coaching wise pats will be able to keep this a one possession game.. i been wrong before tho, several times with this pats team, dont even think id bet them, i just dont like the idea of laying a td..

I think the chargers could be frauds moreso than the pats. I look at pats as team that started out season very conservatively, offensively and defensively for whatever reason maybe cause the rookie. Look at 2 jets matchup. I think New england could of done that from day 1 but they just didn't open it up. And defensively they are playing tighter coverage too and playing the run better.

Chargers I think could have a block against d coordinators who don't zone them. Bill B held these guys to 0 points last year. We saw what the ravens did, and that looks bad when the ravens man is beatable. I think pats can run on chargers, screen the chargers, and pats have talent that is now being realized by opening the playbook up. Bill B just played dallas and tampa tuff, I think he can with chargers.

 

[2daBank]

I think the chargers could be frauds moreso than the pats. I look at pats as team that started out season very conservatively, offensively and defensively for whatever reason maybe cause the rookie. Look at 2 jets matchup. I think New england could of done that from day 1 but they just didn't open it up. And defensively they are playing tighter coverage too and playing the run better.

Chargers I think could have a block against d coordinators who don't zone them. Bill B held these guys to 0 points last year. We saw what the ravens did, and that looks bad when the ravens man is beatable. I think pats can run on chargers, screen the chargers, and pats have talent that is now being realized by opening the playbook up. Bill B just played dallas and tampa tuff, I think he can with chargers.

Yea, if you made me play it id be on pats. I want to like the chargers cause Hebert and his weapons are really good, I think Staley goes over board w going for it at times but I’ll take his aggressiveness over the lames who always punt on 4th and short from midfield, and they have studs on the defense.

All that said Staley defensive philosophy is stupid imo, I don’t care how analytically sound the idea is that running the ball is less efficient than passing so you should invite teams to gash you by playing light boxes. Running not inefficient went yiu getting the 6 ypc chargers giving up, not to mentored these ppl who treat analytics like the be all end all are lying to themselves. The world is grey not black and white like you would need for the numbers to be correct. Running the ball accomplishes a lot more than just scoring points and when you getting gashed for 200+ you ain’t gonna win a lot of games! Doesn’t matter if you difficult to pass on or not!!

Then offensively they should be amazing on every down with those weapons but they not, standard downs they are average, this oc doesn’t impress me at all, they really dependent on Herbert bailing them out on 3rd and 4th down. That great when it working but when you run up against well coached defenses they gonna make you less efficient on those downs!! The talent all there for this team but I have huge doubts about the coaching, everyone seems to think the coaching is great because he aggressive, I like aggressive too but he wreckless and making lot of mistakes in other areas. The team getting 6 has a massive coaching edge in this one!!

 

[B.A.R.]

Take away the Bengals game, and the Lions have been competitive in every game. Yeah, SF was blowing them out but they made it interesting,

I get that this is a great week to 'steal' one at home and get that first win but curious if maybe they put so much into the Rams game that they come out a bit flat here?

The way to beat them is in the air... and now they get a semi-reprieve with Jalen Hurts...

Should be interesting...

 

[Gandolf]

Yeah I have Adams on my main team and I'm trying to pick up whoever will be the main beneficiary of his absence. There's 10+ targets that need to get distributed and like you said Rodgers is picky with who he trusts. He does trust Cobb,

Did a little research......there were 6 games the last two years where Adams was out. Packers went 6-0(!!) and Rodgers numbers are a little higher than his last six games this year (also 6-0):

2021 L6 - 135 completions, 1619 yds, 11.99 ypc, 15 TDs
2019-2020 - 142 completions, 1841 yds, 12.96 ypc, 17 TDs

Adams target share this year is 36%. Where can we expect those targets to go?

Target share of RB/TEs/Other WRs - 2021 vs 2019/20 without Adams

RBs - 21% vs 36%.......34-38 for 271 yds vs 59-69 for 593 yards
TEs - 18% vs 20%.......23-32 for 244 yds vs 33-39 for 426 yards
WRs - 25% vs 43%.....31-45 for 416 yds vs 50-83 for 822 yards

So what is noteworthy?

- Adams targets generally get split between the RBs and the other WRs
- Huge day in store for Jones and even Dillon could be flex worthy
- Rodgers completions percentage drops 10 points when throwing to the other WRs, Why? He takes more deep chances. His YPC goes up 3 points with the other WRs when Adams is out. This also opens up the underneath so the RBs and TEs also see a boost in ypc.
- TEs will get maybe 1 more target on average, but a big stat is their TDs without Adams were 6, while this year they've only had two. So look for Tonyan in the redzone (or Mercedes Lewis, boo) which makes him a top 12 TE this week (big for us Waller owners).
- When Adams was out the best fantasy day among the WRs went to Lazard 3 times, MVS twice, and one week they all had poor numbers. Cobb played in 2019 but never was the top guy.

Jones & Dillon figure to split about 9-10 catches for 100, probably a score, chance for two.
Tonyan 4-5 catches for 50 and a touch.
Lewis 1-2 catches for 20, hopefully doesn't take Tonyan's touch, 20% TD chance
MVS if he goes 3 out of 6 targets for 60, 30% TD chance
Cobb 4 catches for 40, 30% TD chance. I don't see him having a big day.
Other 2 catches for 25
Rodgers goes 23-33, 295 yards, 3 tds

 

[twinkie13]

Saints trade to get Ingram from Houston

Cool story, AK got his love boy back

Ummmmm how about WR dog?

 

[Hulu]

Anyone else feeling like Indy is a play this week at home? Titans are flying high and this is an obvious let down spot for them and Indy had slowly been getting better.

 

[Gandolf]

Did a little research......there were 6 games the last two years where Adams was out. Packers went 6-0(!!) and Rodgers numbers are a little higher than his last six games this year (also 6-0):

2021 L6 - 135 completions, 1619 yds, 11.99 ypc, 15 TDs
2019-2020 - 142 completions, 1841 yds, 12.96 ypc, 17 TDs

Adams target share this year is 36%. Where can we expect those targets to go?

Target share of RB/TEs/Other WRs - 2021 vs 2019/20 without Adams

RBs - 21% vs 36%.......34-38 for 271 yds vs 59-69 for 593 yards
TEs - 18% vs 20%.......23-32 for 244 yds vs 33-39 for 426 yards
WRs - 25% vs 43%.....31-45 for 416 yds vs 50-83 for 822 yards

So what is noteworthy?

- Adams targets generally get split between the RBs and the other WRs
- Huge day in store for Jones and even Dillon could be flex worthy
- Rodgers completions percentage drops 10 points when throwing to the other WRs, Why? He takes more deep chances. His YPC goes up 3 points with the other WRs when Adams is out. This also opens up the underneath so the RBs and TEs also see a boost in ypc.
- TEs will get maybe 1 more target on average, but a big stat is their TDs without Adams were 6, while this year they've only had two. So look for Tonyan in the redzone (or Mercedes Lewis, boo) which makes him a top 12 TE this week (big for us Waller owners).
- When Adams was out the best fantasy day among the WRs went to Lazard 3 times, MVS twice, and one week they all had poor numbers. Cobb played in 2019 but never was the top guy.

Jones & Dillon figure to split about 9-10 catches for 100, probably a score, chance for two.
Tonyan 4-5 catches for 50 and a touch.
Lewis 1-2 catches for 20, hopefully doesn't take Tonyan's touch, 20% TD chance
MVS if he goes 3 out of 6 targets for 60, 30% TD chance
Cobb 4 catches for 40, 30% TD chance. I don't see him having a big day.
Other 2 catches for 25
Rodgers goes 23-33, 295 yards, 3 tds

Saw a prop for Jones receiving yards set at 36. Without Adams he should crush this number.

 

[Tin&Lint]

Anyone else feeling like Indy is a play this week at home? Titans are flying high and this is an obvious let down spot for them and Indy had slowly been getting better.

Sure like the spot, but I’m still not buying Carson Wentz. Indy also off a big win, and not sure if the underthrown-deep-balls-in-the-rain strategy will work again this week.

 

[2daBank]

Sure like the spot, but I’m still not buying Carson Wentz. Indy also off a big win, and not sure if the underthrown-deep-balls-in-the-rain strategy will work again this week.

Cmon now, that not fair. Did you see the deep balls he was throwing the week prior in the dome? Everyone was commenting in-game about what a great deep ball he threw! He didn’t need any flags on those.

I understand being skeptical, after a month I thought Indy might have made a huge mistake trusting him to be the guy he was once before. In fairness tho he didn’t get much a preseason cause the foot injury and the early schedule was tough. He has looked fantastic the last month, I’m a believer cause I believe in his coach. He should torch Titans beat up secondary (even if Mahomes couldn’t).

 

[2daBank]

Anyone else feeling like Indy is a play this week at home? Titans are flying high and this is an obvious let down spot for them and Indy had slowly been getting better.

Only way I would play it

 

[2daBank]

Did a little research......there were 6 games the last two years where Adams was out. Packers went 6-0(!!) and Rodgers numbers are a little higher than his last six games this year (also 6-0):

2021 L6 - 135 completions, 1619 yds, 11.99 ypc, 15 TDs
2019-2020 - 142 completions, 1841 yds, 12.96 ypc, 17 TDs

Adams target share this year is 36%. Where can we expect those targets to go?

Target share of RB/TEs/Other WRs - 2021 vs 2019/20 without Adams

RBs - 21% vs 36%.......34-38 for 271 yds vs 59-69 for 593 yards
TEs - 18% vs 20%.......23-32 for 244 yds vs 33-39 for 426 yards
WRs - 25% vs 43%.....31-45 for 416 yds vs 50-83 for 822 yards

So what is noteworthy?

- Adams targets generally get split between the RBs and the other WRs
- Huge day in store for Jones and even Dillon could be flex worthy
- Rodgers completions percentage drops 10 points when throwing to the other WRs, Why? He takes more deep chances. His YPC goes up 3 points with the other WRs when Adams is out. This also opens up the underneath so the RBs and TEs also see a boost in ypc.
- TEs will get maybe 1 more target on average, but a big stat is their TDs without Adams were 6, while this year they've only had two. So look for Tonyan in the redzone (or Mercedes Lewis, boo) which makes him a top 12 TE this week (big for us Waller owners).
- When Adams was out the best fantasy day among the WRs went to Lazard 3 times, MVS twice, and one week they all had poor numbers. Cobb played in 2019 but never was the top guy.

Jones & Dillon figure to split about 9-10 catches for 100, probably a score, chance for two.
Tonyan 4-5 catches for 50 and a touch.
Lewis 1-2 catches for 20, hopefully doesn't take Tonyan's touch, 20% TD chance
MVS if he goes 3 out of 6 targets for 60, 30% TD chance
Cobb 4 catches for 40, 30% TD chance. I don't see him having a big day.
Other 2 catches for 25
Rodgers goes 23-33, 295 yards, 3 tds

Good stuff, I’m playing Jones props, tonyan props. Not sure I agree bout Cobb, I wouldn’t use him in fantasy but I think I like him over 45.5 yards.

 

[Tin&Lint]

Cmon now, that not fair. Did you see the deep balls he was throwing the week prior in the dome? Everyone was commenting in-game about what a great deep ball he threw! He didn’t need any flags on those.

I understand being skeptical, after a month I thought Indy might have made a huge mistake trusting him to be the guy he was once before. In fairness tho he didn’t get much a preseason cause the foot injury and the early schedule was tough. He has looked fantastic the last month, I’m a believer cause I believe in his coach. He should torch Titans beat up secondary (even if Mahomes couldn’t).

Still leaning Indy despite my comments. But still not buying Wentz & Colts long term.

They get Jets & Jags after this, but then day of reckoning coming with Bills & Bucs.

 

[2daBank]

Still leaning Indy despite my comments. But still not buying Wentz & Colts long term.

They get Jets & Jags after this, but then day of reckoning coming with Bills & Bucs.

That fair, I’m just starting to. I did when trade happened but then he got hurt in preseason (which ain’t nothing new with him!), I started having doubts. I’m coming back around tho: On Wentz and the team, I expect these 2 battle it out for this crappy div all year!!

 

[Zeke]

I'm shocked that the Bengals are laying DD on the road. Even more shocked that I honestly think they should cover it.

I also love when you bet a total assuming it will go one way, then someone lands on the Covid list and it drops two points. Looking at you, Green Bay.

I would be playing it at the current number of 10.5 but I still like the 8.5 I got.

 

[Ryno14]

I’ve not seen a single soul on Arizona tonight

 

[KJ]

I’ve not seen a single soul on Arizona tonight

So many moving parts w/o the receivers and news that Watt is out for the season likely

DHop gonna play it sounds like

 

[Joe Public]

I’ve not seen a single soul on Arizona tonight

I am a single soul.

Although, in fairness, I have them in a two team tease with Dallas so that may not count. Also, I actually think the over gets there tonight. Which I can't bet now because I bet it before all the Covid stuff for GB and now have a bad number, but I think we're looking at like 33-23, something like that.

 

[Zeke]

Anyone know what's going on in the DAL/MIN game? Line has flipped & now MIN is -2.5/-145 ML. Five point fucking swing!

 

[survive&advance]

Anyone know what's going on in the DAL/MIN game? Line has flipped & now MIN is -2.5/-145 ML. Five point fucking swing!

Dak sounding more questionable to play

 

[KJ]

Dak sounding more questionable to play

Seems like the real story would be told if it moves to 3. Move from 2.5 to the other 2.5 still seems like it's a questionable leaning towards likely not, but reality is it's barely different than picking the winner of the game. Obviously someone has some intel...

 

[Joe Public]

How do I wash off the ending of that Arizona game? Like, how many showers will it take? Asking for a friend.

 

[KJ]

How do I wash off the ending of that Arizona game? Like, how many showers will it take? Asking for a friend.

No shower will do it. You needed a HAZMAT suit and now you've become a test subject for some anecdote out of the Congo.

 

[Joe Public]

Well, the Browns are going to start Baker this week which seems dumb and I wish they wouldn't because I liked their chances without him. But assuming this is true, it looks like they're going to try to limp through the rest of the season with him only having one arm. This seems dumb, but it's not as if that franchise has a history of being run all that well, the last 24 months or so notwithstanding.

Also, Denzel Ward is out.

 

[Gandolf]

Media here is growing increasingly confident in the Steelers chances to win this one.

 

[Joe Public]

Media here is growing increasingly confident in the Steelers chances to win this one.

I'm growing increasingly confident in an under in this one.

I would say, though, I don't blame them. I think a hurt Baker gives them a far better shot than a healthy back up. I do think Chubb is back this week, which makes me feel better about Cleveland.

 

[Gandolf]

Card looks difficult this week, but at least Vegas hasn't been crying about losing money.

Car/Atl - Panthers are in free fall and Atlanta has found something on offense with their three headed monster of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley. Atlanta has also won 5 of 6 vs Carolina. Eye test would say Atlanta but the Theory of Mediocre Teams says a correction is in order so its Panthers +3.

Mia/Buf - Bills followed their inexplicable loss to Pittsburgh with a 35-0 rinsing of Miami. Bills again off an inexplicable loss, and again turn around to face Miami. Bad luck for Miami. Bills -14.

SF/Chi - Niners on a 4 game losing streak and they're 4 point road faves? Ugh. No way I can back Fields and the total is too low to contemplate the under. Pass all the way around.

Pit/Cle - The vibes are trending Pitts way. There's a revenge element too considering the Browns won two straight against Pittsburgh late last year, including in the playoffs. Both team got extra time to prepare and get healthier. The hook is too enticing, Pitt +3.5

Phi/Det - Somebody has to win this one. Lions played their asses off last week, that usually doesn't happen two weeks in a row. Eagles lost Sanders, which could actually improve their chances. How does Hurts do with an early lead? They smashed Atlanta pretty hard. I can see them having a good week. Philly -3.5

Ten/Indy - Two teams playing well right now. Indy generally does well against the Tits and with the series 0-1 so far this year I'm favoring the split. Indy -2.5

Cin/NYJ - Woof, huge spread here and its being a long time since the Bengals were in this position. No way to tell how they'll respond off their huge effort last week. Jets are too putrid to back, so this is more of a teaser game for me.

LAR/Hou - Rams have been handling their business, would be inclined to back them with Tyrod still not playing. But I can't lay 15.5 on the road. Another one to tease around.

NE/SD - Last time we saw the Chargers they were getting their shit pushed in by the Ravens. They've had two weeks to think about this one. Pats got their second dose of the Jets vaccine so they should feel pretty good about themselves. A month ago I'd be saying -4 looks too light. I guess it still is. Chargers -4.

Jax/Sea - Ugh, there's just no way I can get interested in this one. I'll have the Sunday Ticket four block up for the late games and I may tape a piece of paper onto the screen just so my eyes can't accidently catch a glimpse of Geno at QB. Pass.

Was/Den - Broncos step up in class the last four weeks has been a disaster. In horse racing we say they're dropping into appropriate company this week. The return of Jeudy would then be like taking the blinkers off? Denver -3.

Tampa/NO - OK, we all saw that Saints/Seahawks craptastic game on Monday night. Somehow the Saints are 4-2. But I think Brady & the Bucs had their ears prick up on the Thursday night results. I think the Bucs get it done but 4.5 seems a lot. The under 50 looks better to me. Seeing 24-20 type game.

Dall/Minn - Line has pushed to -3 for Minny at some books. Implication is Prescott will not be able to go. I don't know. They Cowboys line is back at full strength.....how much would Prescott really need to move around? What's better, a statue Prescott or a healthy Cooper Rush? No sense guessing anything until game time.

 

[Tin&Lint]

Card looks difficult this week, but at least Vegas hasn't been crying about losing money.

Car/Atl - Panthers are in free fall and Atlanta has found something on offense with their three headed monster of Pitts, Patterson and Ridley. Atlanta has also won 5 of 6 vs Carolina. Eye test would say Atlanta but the Theory of Mediocre Teams says a correction is in order so its Panthers +3.

Mia/Buf - Bills followed their inexplicable loss to Pittsburgh with a 35-0 rinsing of Miami. Bills again off an inexplicable loss, and again turn around to face Miami. Bad luck for Miami. Bills -14.

SF/Chi - Niners on a 4 game losing streak and they're 4 point road faves? Ugh. No way I can back Fields and the total is too low to contemplate the under. Pass all the way around.

Pit/Cle - The vibes are trending Pitts way. There's a revenge element too considering the Browns won two straight against Pittsburgh late last year, including in the playoffs. Both team got extra time to prepare and get healthier. The hook is too enticing, Pitt +3.5

Phi/Det - Somebody has to win this one. Lions played their asses off last week, that usually doesn't happen two weeks in a row. Eagles lost Sanders, which could actually improve their chances. How does Hurts do with an early lead? They smashed Atlanta pretty hard. I can see them having a good week. Philly -3.5

Ten/Indy - Two teams playing well right now. Indy generally does well against the Tits and with the series 0-1 so far this year I'm favoring the split. Indy -2.5

Cin/NYJ - Woof, huge spread here and its being a long time since the Bengals were in this position. No way to tell how they'll respond off their huge effort last week. Jets are too putrid to back, so this is more of a teaser game for me.

LAR/Hou - Rams have been handling their business, would be inclined to back them with Tyrod still not playing. But I can't lay 15.5 on the road. Another one to tease around.

NE/SD - Last time we saw the Chargers they were getting their shit pushed in by the Ravens. They've had two weeks to think about this one. Pats got their second dose of the Jets vaccine so they should feel pretty good about themselves. A month ago I'd be saying -4 looks too light. I guess it still is. Chargers -4.

Jax/Sea - Ugh, there's just no way I can get interested in this one. I'll have the Sunday Ticket four block up for the late games and I may tape a piece of paper onto the screen just so my eyes can't accidently catch a glimpse of Geno at QB. Pass.

Was/Den - Broncos step up in class the last four weeks has been a disaster. In horse racing we say they're dropping into appropriate company this week. The return of Jeudy would then be like taking the blinkers off? Denver -3.

Tampa/NO - OK, we all saw that Saints/Seahawks craptastic game on Monday night. Somehow the Saints are 4-2. But I think Brady & the Bucs had their ears prick up on the Thursday night results. I think the Bucs get it done but 4.5 seems a lot. The under 50 looks better to me. Seeing 24-20 type game.

Dall/Minn - Line has pushed to -3 for Minny at some books. Implication is Prescott will not be able to go. I don't know. They Cowboys line is back at full strength.....how much would Prescott really need to move around? What's better, a statue Prescott or a healthy Cooper Rush? No sense guessing anything until game time.

Great thoughts. Thanks. Not sure I agree on 100% of sides, but like all line of thinking. Tough week imo.

 

[C-MAN]

Real tough week. Think NO and Chicago will get my money. Cincy a good teaser partner (maybe with Ten or Buff). Interesting to see people picking Car as a contrarian play. Based upon the last 4 weeks there is no way I would bet Car. Maybe things change this week, but I’m not going to bet on it. It’s Atl or nothing IMO.

 

[Zeke]

My brother flew the Bucs team charter jet to New Orleans yesterday. All he told me was "Tom was cool, Gronk said he might play. I told him that was hardly enough insider info for me to base a wager on & that they should have served the whole team the fish.