Week 8 CFB with writeups

really like michigan and wisconsin. I like Ga Tech and Vandy MLs too, both would do wonders for my future bets
 
Tim, thanks. You and I seem to be pretty much on the same lines with this game, but since I couldn't watch much recently, I really appreciate your insight.

RSMS, GL to us.

The more I think about it, the more I want to play SMU.

Pinny +206
Cris +200

anyone see it better anywhere else?
 
SMU +206

Willis should play...the whole game this time instead of letting Marshall get into it in the first half. East Carolina has a few injuries themselves, and that should, at the very least, not help the woeful run defense the Pirates have been attempting...

With DeMyron Martin upgraded to probable and Willis's incredible precision passing, I see a strong chance for an SMU win here. Sure, Willis is a freshman going out on the road, but he's throwing incredibly well. Against marshall he hit 20 of 23... This should be a test for him as ECU's pass defense has been relatively good, but I like SMU's chances in this one.
Willis finds a way to get it done, and having Martin's carries in his arsenal will only help. Losing Zach Sledge to suspension will hurt some, but there are other good WRs on that team, and Martin could have a big day for his comeback against a swiss cheese run D...ECU will have to load up the box which opens up those other WRs. Willis will find them.

I'm liking this game.
 
I completely agree with your analysis here on SMU redbearde...I grabbed +7 when this thing came out at Cris on Sunday...GL to you...
 
exactly

redbearde said:
Thanks bro. GL with em. I like seeing ML dogs win......cept when I have a chalk ticket...heh.
Click to expand...

well i took the 13.5 with the buffs tonight. don't have the balls to play it on the ML though...
 
Good Luck redbearde and Bravo to you on a real good season.
Wisck looks much much better than Purdue.
I think you underrate Rutgers a bit , but Pitt may indeed be the right choice. Hard to go against teams on a roll.
Too many points on Michigan, i would say, but it's early in the week and I have time to think about it.
NC State looks lie a reasonable ML play.:cheers:
 
bull we'll see how it goes this weekend.

for the record, I was considering FAU on the ML, but I am not going to play it.

GL to all who put money on a Sun Belt game...you wacky degenerates, you...
 
spreads overall: 68-52-2, 55.7% +31.92 units

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105) 2 units
Wisconsin -5.5 (-104) 2 units
Michigan -13.5 (-104) 2 units
Tulane/Auburn over 49 (-105) 2 units
LSU -32.5 (-105) 2 units
Arizona St -23.5 (+103) 8 units
Oregon St -2.5 -116 2 units
Hawaii/NMSU Over73 (-101) 3 units
Tulsa -13.5 (-107) 2 units

ML Dogs overall: 29-44, 39.7% +20.42 units

Vandy +148
Toledo +111
UTEP +200
Colorado +440
NC State +162
N Mexico +224 - W
BGSU +260 - L
Miami Oh +290
GA Tech +275
SMU +206

I have high hopes for my card this week. Moneywise last week I unded up losing the micron that I won in week 6. Going 4-9 in MLs and only losing a small amount overall, I have got to be happy with that...

GL all around this week guys. Let's win some money.
 
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Redbearde, I like Ga Tech as well + the pts and ML; one concern I think I may have though is that this is a crossover game in the ACC and it means a lot more to Clemson with one loss in ACC play; meanwhile, Tech will be playing the 'Canes next week essentially for that half of the title.

Any concerns with that?
 
As always Red....an excellent thread to read.

Best of luck this week and love the sig!
 
horses said:
Redbearde, I like Ga Tech as well + the pts and ML; one concern I think I may have though is that this is a crossover game in the ACC and it means a lot more to Clemson with one loss in ACC play; meanwhile, Tech will be playing the 'Canes next week essentially for that half of the title.

Any concerns with that?
Click to expand...

Not at 2.75:1... =)

Clemson is much more of a threat to GT than Miami...I find it hard to believe they overlook #12 for unranked asswater U. And I have trouble believing they would overlook any ACC game anyway. Well, maybe UNC or Dook.

I think GT will put as much effort into this one that they did against VPI. I hope so, anyway. And for me, it's a value bet. I get somewhat close to 3:1, so my necssary wins aren't 50%...and I think GT has at least a 40-45% chance.

two words: No Stuckey.

:smiley_acbe:

BAR, Michigan looks sharp this year bro. REAL damn sharp. That one TD they gave up to PSU was the one time they weren't quite awake...at least that I've seen.
:shake:

Grind, good luck to us, bro.

Jump, that's what I'm hoping...though I give em a bit less chance than that. Let's hope you're right.
 
GL red! Was talking with BAR last night about the UM game and although was a little nervous about it at first, I'm starting to like it more and more with Mario or not.

Best of luck this weekend.

:Cheers:
 
TWITA said:
GL red! Was talking with BAR last night about the UM game and although was a little nervous about it at first, I'm starting to like it more and more with Mario or not.
Click to expand...

That's how I look at it. WITH Mario, this gets crazy, I think. Without him, UM will lose a few 3rd down conversions and perhaps a TD. But I don't think that's all that significant. Iowa doesn't match up well here.....and they've been having more and more trouble recently. The highlight of their recent stretch is a Purdue bashing at home. Away, they have trouble, and a recent inexplicable loss to Indiana should have them shitting themselves before this game.

Go big blue!
:smiley_acbe:
 
according to Garf, much of Memphis's defense is out now...as well as several WRs...

Meanwhile, Tulsa has actually been playing fairly well recently. Looks like the makings for a slaughter.

Tulsa -13.5 (-107) 2 units
 
New Mexico won; Utah just didn't seem to want to play in the 2H. BGSU actually looked fairly good. They just weren't quite quick enough on defense for a few plays...notably on the first and last major drives that the Chips had. Falcons sure had the chances though with CMU coughing up several fumbles. I am quite impressed with the Chips defense...that's for sure.

1-1 +1.24 units thursday. yay. Need only 3 more Saturday...obviously more is better...
 
Nice score with that New Mexico play.
I follow your stuff pretty closely, and tho I may fade you on 2 of the first 3, I'll be with you or on the sidelines on all the others.
Have a great day.:cheers:
 
thanks bull. Lots of guys like Rutgers against Pitt. It might even have value in there still....but I really like this Pitt team this year. Good Luck today....cept on those you're agaisnt me with.... ateeheehee..
 
Been following your stuff pretty closely, redbearde.
Nice hit with New Mex the other night.:shake:
I will likely fade two of your first three, but othewrwise our plays are remarkably similar. Some of your MLs I did take side because I am basically a coward.
GL today.:cheers:
 
Bull, I understand the fear invloved in taking the dog to win straight up, but if I had done that with my ML dogs, not that many of them would have cashed that didn't already for me, and it would have been for a lot less money.

If you think a dog you've taken the points on has a chance to win, then you can always put 1/5 unit on the ML as well as the points...

just a thought.

thing to do to get over the ML fear is to play several of them in chunks. buddy, when you hit 50% on ML dogs, you win a fucklot of money. Thursday was a VERY nice day for me...whereas if I'd played the points, I'd be down juice. So take 100$ and split it up among 10 dogs. If you win 4, then you're probably going to win ome money...hell, I went 4-9 last week, and while it wasn't a great week, it actually didn't hurt me as much as you'd think going 4-9 would....

FWIW...garf's threads on covers are full of great info.
 
redbearde- I'm a faithful reader of Garfather's thread over there. You probably didn't notice the props I gave both of you two in my own post there this week.Have a big day.
 
oh wow. well thanks. Yeah, I don't read much outside of Garf's and Matador's threads......cept the penalty box. That shit's hysterical.

Okay. Who made me Jason McElwain Wannabe?

Jump, is this vengeance for my sig? Or is this just a normal progression through the post count? .....cus I've never seen it before.
 
bull said:
redbearde- I'm a faithful reader of Garfather's thread over there. You probably didn't notice the props I gave both of you two in my own post there this week.Have a big day.
Click to expand...

OOOOOOOOOOOoooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh....I get it...

YOU'RE TAURUS.

clever.

Maybe I *should* be compared unfavorably to a tard...that took me like 2 hours to figure out.
 
spreads overall: 68-52-2, 55.7% +31.92 units

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105) 2 units - L
Wisconsin -5.5 (-104) 2 units - W
Michigan -13.5 (-104) 2 units - W
Tulane/Auburn over 49 (-105) 2 units - W
LSU -32.5 (-105) 2 units
Arizona St -23.5 (+103) 8 units - W
Oregon St -2.5 -116 2 units - W
Hawaii/NMSU Over73 (-101) 3 units
Tulsa -13.5 (-107) 2 units

ML Dogs overall: 29-44, 39.7% +20.42 units

Vandy +148 - L
Toledo +111 - L
UTEP +200 - L
Colorado +440 - L
NC State +162 - L
N Mexico +224 - W
BGSU +260 - L
Miami Oh +290 - L
GA Tech +275
SMU +206 - L

Today has redefined craptacular.

So few ML dogs won SU today....I'm not sure I can count that low. I only caught one.

....unless GT manages to BS a win...

I'll write more later.
 
That's the plan, Hunt.

Okay,

Spread plays kicked ass this week to the tune of 7-2. The ML dogs licked ass, tho...1-9. Ouch.

overall

spreads: 75-54-2, 57.2% +48.96 units
ML dogs: 30-53, 32.2% +13.66 units

Since I bet more on ML dogs than spreads, I still managed to lose money...the spreads, especially Stanford obligingly and expectedly sucking absolute ass (in a bad way), significantly mitigated my losses.

I really thought this card was good, and I honestly can't identify many I wouldn't have played........MAYBE Colorado. Probably SMU...after the late injury report came in. I should have middled Toledo/EMU, I guess. I stopped looking at lines about friday...AND I figured that Toledo would win that game.

If you don't knoww hat happened there, well, let's just say that my breaking my rule of NEVER EVER FUcKing EVER BETTING ON THAT POINTS SHAVING HEAD UP HIS MONSTROUS ASS..........dickhole of a coach...

I should have followed that rule. Alas.
 
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