Week 8 CFB with writeups




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
at least the writing will come eventually...

Last week I lost some money on the ML dogs. Whoops. I'll turn it back to the good this week...

spreads overall: 68-52-2, 55.7% +31.92 units
ML Dogs overall: 29-44, 39.7% +20.42 units

I've got these already:

Pittsburgh -6.5 (-105) 2 units
Wisconsin -5.5 (-104) 2 units
Michigan -13.5 (-104) 2 units

Rutgers is weak. Yesterday's crushing of Navy is largely due to Navy's QB getting broken in the first quarter. Pitt's lines have shown resilience and exceptional competence. Pitt has crushed lesser teams, and beaten teams with similar talent. They lost to Michigan St, but that was pre-collapse...and that was a completely different MSU team than the chicken pussies currently playing for the Spartans. Pitt's for real, should win by 14-17, and I'll take this happily.

IMO, Wisconsin outclasses a Purdue team that doesn't want to play defense. Perhaps the boilermakers get up for this one and give Wisky a run, but I kinda doubt it. Wisconsin by 21-24 (more if Purdue decides to not play much offense, either). Want more? See Wisconsin's performances for the last 7 weeks.

Michigan, well, I'm drowning in the Big Blue kool-aid. UM should obliterate what should be a demoralized Iowa team coming into Ann Arbor off of dropping a second stunning upset at the hands of Indiana. Michigan by 17-21.

Only a few MLs are out, and while I plan on playing GT, I want more than 260...especially since it opened at pinny at 3:1. It would not surprise me to see even better than that at some point this week. Stuckey still not expected to play as far as I know....

As more come out, I'll add more here to what I already wrote about week 7 and upcoming 8...which can be found here.
 
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GL red..I agree with Pitt, I am not playing it yet, but I think that line is high for a reason.
 
Your one of the guys on this site that I really enjoying reading, just because I know pretty clearly why you think what you think...

The Pittsburgh game I like a lot. My first inclination was, holy cow, that is high...but the more I think about it, the more and more I like the situation. Yes, MSU thumped Pitt...but that is the same MSU team that gave ND a run...not the one that we are seeing now. I will almost definitely be joining you on this game, but I'm not positive the line ever goes over 7, so I'm not in a hurry.

Wisconsin was my thinking, too, but Fondy seems to think you should take Purdue. Waiting to here more from him on that before I hit it.

Michigan, though, I disagree with. It just seems like too many points against Iowa, when Manningham isn't in there. Michigan's lines dominated Penn State and that is why they won...but without Manningham, I'm just not sure that they are the type of team that can get up and down the field like I want for a team with this high a spread.
 
If MM may be back, then I'll have to wait on making a decision until Friday. Line figures to move a bit by then, anyway. I'm not a huge Big 10 bettor, so its probably a no play for me either way. Thanks though.
 
Yeah I'm a fan of what Rutgers has done... but that line screams take Rutgers. Usually similarly ranked teams... would give 3 to 4.. not 6.5. Rutgers main strength is their running attack and Pitt should do fine against it. MSU stretched them out. If you can't spread the offense and threaten to put up 350 yards passing you won't beat Pitt.
 
Thanks for your thoughts, seabass. Regarding Wisconsin, I'm surprised fondy isn't on em. I may lose all three of these bets (kinda doubt that, but it's possible), but if I've learned anything over the last month it's to trust my own opinions. Besides, I've already made the bet. I've seen purdue. I've seen Wisky. I think the only way Purdue stays close at all is if the passing attack can run all over wisky's D.........again, I point to the last few weeks' performances. Minny was supposedly going to be competitive...Northwestern with a 3TD spread was supposedly going to be a winner....The only loss Wisky has is to Michigan, and I think Michigan has been a legitimate number 2 for at least 4 weeks. I think the only reason Michigan isn't #1 is because UM hasn't beaten the buckeyes *yet*.

Wisconsin had some trouble scoring on SDSU...not a good sign, but they held the Aztecs to zilch AT HOME. Skunking a team is hard...hell, Arkansas gave up a TD to SE Missouri St, and AZ gave a TD (defensive) up to Stanford with under 60 yards of total offense. A shut out is tough to pitch. This defense will eat up the Purdue offense...

Regarding Michigan, I understand your point of view. I'm taking this -13.5 with the idea that Manningham *won't* be in there. However, if he IS in there, I think this line is a gimme...or as much of one as we ever see, and according to Huntdog there (thanks Huntdog), Mario may well play this week.

I thought highly of AZ last week too, and I got the distinct impression that was not a highly thought-of pick... I've hit both my plays of the year in the Matador Invitational now...woohoo!

Anyway, Iowa may bounce back this week. I did say something about drinking kool-aid regarding UM this year.... So hey, maybe I'm not being prudent with this one, but I like it a lot.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah I'm a fan of what Rutgers has done... but that line screams take Rutgers. Usually similarly ranked teams... would give 3 to 4.. not 6.5. Rutgers main strength is their running attack and Pitt should do fine against it. MSU stretched them out. If you can't spread the offense and threaten to put up 350 yards passing you won't beat Pitt.
Click to expand...

Not sure I fully understand your post, but I don't think Rutgers is as good as pitt in several ways. Squeaking out wins against UNC and South Florida are not good signs for the health of that program. UNC's defense is swiss cheese, the Heels' offense is in disarray, and Rutgers couldn't stop them (UNC stopped themselves) and only managed 3 TDs. Pitt would put up 40 or better on UNC, and the heels would be lucky to score. As you say, this run attack isn't going to let Rutgers pound it like the Knights are used to, and I'm not so sure Mike Teel is up to winning it with his arm against a quality defense. Wanny trusts Palko's passing more this year, and Tyler isn't letting him down...he has an astonishing QB rating of 131.5. He already has as many passing TDs this year (17) as he did ALL of last year.

Rutgers gave up these passing yards:

UNC: 226
Illinois: 60
Ohio: 125
Howard: 124
USF: 255
Navy: outlier. This game indicates nothing about Rutgers's defensive ability. If anything, this 34-0 win inflates Rutgers's perceived ability contrary to reality.

Congrats to Rutgers on the dominating performances of Illinois, Ohio, and Howard, but I don't think that indicates a shut-down defense. The illinois game was funny and all, and hell, I bet on Rutgers last week. But this team is not going to get its run yardage against a tough Pitt D line. AND Pitt will blow through that Rutgers Defense who had a week off with a scrimmage against Navy.

I honestly expected this line to be DD chalk for Pitt. As I've said before, I suck at predicting lines.

or I could be completely wrong. Good luck this week.
 
HUNTDOG said:
GL red..I agree with Pitt, I am not playing it yet, but I think that line is high for a reason.
Click to expand...

This is interesting. I don't think Pitt -TD is high at all. I think it's low.

Perhaps I need more sleep, or I've sniffed too much spent gunpowder this weekend...but I really think Rutgers is a tier lower than Pitt.
 
Yeah not in the most sober state right now but they made zero sense. I basically was stating I am a fan of what Rutgers has accomplished... but they match up horribly against Pitt.

I also think 6.5 is high for two teams so closely ranked. But I think Pitt has no problem covering here. It's a good play.

Which way you think the line will go? I can get -6.5 -105 right now...
 
Inspekdah said:
Which way you think the line will go? I can get -6.5 -105 right now...
Click to expand...

I think it goes over a TD before long...but you're askin a self-avowed SHITASS predictor of line moves. This is one of those games where folks' perception isn't necessarily mine. I had that situation with tOSU last week. I grabbed -16.5 (-110) immediately thinking it was good to get under 17...not that I thought it would be that close...

But then it got bet down to damn near 2TDs by gametime...

kooky.
 
redbearde,

I'm on Rutgers +7 here, but wish you luck anyway...also got Colorado +14 and think they have a good shot here...GL to you...
 
Vandy at home will have a fight on their hands, and perhaps I'm biting when there isn't value, but I think the Commodores have at least a 50% chance at the win, and I like my value here. Better team? Maybe........ Better at Vandy, VERY possible.

As bad as Toledo is, EMU shouldn't lay chalk to anyone.

UTEP is flakey, but Houston has been REDEFINING THE CONCEPT in recent weeks, and as long as Palmer doesn't throw his usual 3 picks (he's been better recently), the miners could very well pull this one out. Anyway, at 2:1 with teams that have the same concepts and problems, I'll take the odds.

Colorado +440. The Buffs are getting better, and are on the way up. Oklahoma has to deal with a crushing blow. Without AP, their production has GOT to go down...and that Colorado team has GOT to be sniffing a shot at a redeeming upset to counteract that exercise in ASS that was the loss to MT state. Colorado has been getting better, and this week they finally got over the hump with a ballbusting victory over a not all that shabby Texas Tech team. One team on the way up, one on the way down. Rufus Alexander's situation is nebulus after his arrest, and Huntdog suggests he may be out for next week. Alexander is their leading tackler, and that's going to be tough to replace. I'll take almost 4.5:1...

NC State +162. After the loss, the wolfpack may have gotten the wake-up call to get the focus back together...NC St had a shot at teh win....wtf, was Chuck trying for the cover? LOL. Same scenaria as the FSU game. Yes, I don't think Maryland is all that much worse than FSU, and NCSU can absolutely win this game. But if Evans can not throw picks, and the RBs don't fumble, then NCSU will win. So, maybe I have a 40-45% chance of a win. There might be better value games out there, but this one will give my wife an extra thrill in cheering for em. Go pack.

New Mexico +224. Utah's big win came over TCU...that was a completely different sort of team. NM can score, and that's what I'm going with here, but I'll need the Lobos defense to step up a bit. Perhaps not much if Utah's offense plays as well as they did against the cowboys...

Tulane/Auburn...well, I think this will go the way of Tulane/LSU...should be funny.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yeah not in the most sober state right now but they made zero sense. I basically was stating I am a fan of what Rutgers has accomplished... but they match up horribly against Pitt.

I also think 6.5 is high for two teams so closely ranked. But I think Pitt has no problem covering here. It's a good play.

Which way you think the line will go? I can get -6.5 -105 right now...
Click to expand...
See, I don't know shit about line moves. down to -6 now.

:smiley_acbe:


Folks, I'm still in a huge fade Stanford mood...especially now that Trent Edwards is doubtful too. Arizona St wins by 5 or 6 TDs next week. It's going to get extremely ugly, and it should be damned fun to watch.

Sold down to

Arizona St -23.5 (+103) 8 units

I added more. Nothing is absolutely certain in this gig (see Bears in MNF), but I really REALLY like this fade Stanford train...
 
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Oregon St -2.5 -116

Last week I didn't so much LIKE AZ as much as I like fading stanford. AZ has a decent defense, but Oregon St should be able get 2 or 3 TDs on offense. Especially with the QB attrition, AZ will have a hell of a time scoring.

read BDKs thread for good reasoning.
 
Redbearde:

The ML experiment went pretty well last week and a good number of those games hit. I'm still not confident enough to go full speed, but I'm going to post the picks again later in the week. For what its worth, I have NC State, Vandy, and Toledo as possible plays. I don't have Rutgers or Colorado.
 
RB-Any thoughts on the Middle Tennessee State line coming out at -4.5? Was hoping to get it at a FG or so...I'll see if the line budges at all and do some careful research, just curious since I think you were one of the guys that liked this team...
 
yeah, I like MTSU. not sure what I can say about the line; I suck at predicting them and I suck at predicting moves.

I do like MTSU in this game.

but I won't bet it unless it moves down.

Larice, congrats bro! I'm glad it's workin for you, and I hope it continues.

adding

BGSU +260

looking for some MAC value...I swear these teams are inscrutable, but BG has some offensive weapons that may overcome the chips.

wheeeeeee....still waiting on some other lines. FAU dropped to 260, but has since gone back to 279. come on folks....gimmie 300...

GT dropped again. damnit. Got all week to wait that one out, tho, and it won't break my heart if I don't ever bet it; I hate reggie ball.
 
thanks bro. Vandy should have a good shot. I'm seriously considering SMU, too. I dig your rushing teams thread...

GL this week, eames.
 
6.5... we should be fine... I feel like Pitt either covers big here or falls on their face... and I think the first one is alot more likely...
 
Did not realize you had 8 units on AZ ST. I take it this is a VERY large and strong play for you?
 
I added it for 2 units... had caught my eye... even a slight letdown for AZ and they can still win this game... Stanford... wow... my have the above average fallen.
 
Inspekdah said:
Did not realize you had 8 units on AZ ST. I take it this is a VERY large and strong play for you?
Click to expand...

I had 4 units, and I added 4 more. I am a firm believer in fading extremely bad teams as attrition hurts them more...especially when you have a high powered offense with which to do it.

AZ hung 20pts on this bunch of fools. Arizona St will hang 40 or better. It should, and likely will, get very ugly very quickly.

Don't play this game because I do...look at it yourself and make your own decision. Most times I add money to a game it loses...I don't think it'll happen this time, tho.
 
I have my system where I play my gut... Pitt, ND, and Wisky this week. Pitt and Wisky are on ATS runs and have been doing me well thus far... seeing others on them is just a plus. ND I love after a break... everything else I have a card.. literally... where I go through and give up to 4 checks based on strength... but I wait to see what some other cappers feel to make sure I won't get a bad line... or find out something I'm unaware of...

In this case with AZST I had 4 checks... but I figured I could grab it before it hit 24 and be able to see if any information surfaced that would change my decision making. Believe me I don't just pick because of someone but I will roll with any heavy chalk.. and usually any under... with any solid reasoning behind them. May be a weakness but it hasn't done me wrong yet.

GL

:shake:
 
Coolbeans, bro. Good to hear that someone else has similar thoughts on some of my plays. Good Luck this week.
 
Inspekdah said:
you like Ball St +150-160? Seems like a live home dogg...
Click to expand...

Not really liking this one. I think Western Michigan is a tough team given their conference, and Ball St is a weak team. Sure, Ball can beat Barfalo (especially when I bet on barf), but Western Michigan's defense is a whole other animal.

ahitspat said:
maybe some value in new mexico state on the ml
Click to expand...

Not with my money. Unless and until Hawaii loses Colt Brennan and the stable of WRs, they will score...a lot. This is a Hawaii team that had a real shot at beating Boise St on the Blue. Hawaii's defense has even stepped it up this year, though sending the house every down gives up points, too........and it should against NMSU. I may make an over play on this one.

The long odds I'm looking at are fading Georgia. Pinny has Miss St +940. Think UGA can lose a third in a row?
 
Yanks26Sox6 said:
looks good so far, red. might be tailing you guys on colorado, and maybe a ML dog or two.
Click to expand...

Thanks bro. GL with em. I like seeing ML dogs win......cept when I have a chalk ticket...heh.
 
GA Tech +275

I think it's unlikely to move much higher. The value is certainly here on this game...with Stuckey out, and off a huge shellacking, Clemson may have a surprise in store. As long as Ball doesn't fuck over his own team I should have a real good shot at this one.
 
redbearde,

I am completely in agreement with you on the Wisconsin play. I think that it is the easiest money on your card!
:shake:
 
Here are some I was considering but no longer am.

Mississippi St. Omarr's nuts still hurt, and he's out indefinitely. Againt Jacksonville St, Miss St managed only 300 yards of total offense. [FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif][SIZE=-1]Michael Henig completed just 11 of 25 passes, and the vast majority of the scoring was defensive and ST related. Now, maybe Miss St's defense will outscore UGA's offense....if you take this game, that's pretty much what you're hoping for. Because Miss St's lone offensive star was a defensive back last week. Let me remind you that this was against JACKSONFUCKinGViLLE ST.
I'll pass on this.
[/SIZE][/FONT]
SMU has a couple players suspended (they actually are for this week's game), but it ain't willis. Still, using multiple players to help with sideline playcalling may not be a good idea...quarterback Duke Hasson and wide receiver Zach Sledge are out for this week's game. I still may play this one, but right now I'm not into it.

FAU has had huge attrition. I'm letting them fall by the wayside, too.

I did take Georgia Tech at 275 (Cris). The spread is down to 7.5 now, and I kinda doubt it's going back up. We shall see, but I seriously considered taking it last night at 285...but I don't want to miss anymore value.
 
OrangeLover said:
redbearde,

I am completely in agreement with you on the Wisconsin play. I think that it is the easiest money on your card!
:shake:
Click to expand...

We'll see bro. GL to us!
 
redbearde said:
NC State +162
Click to expand...

Red looks like you got good value here. I have been terribly disappointed with MD's inability to stop the run this year. They actually made VA look like they could run the ball in the 1H last week. I'm not sure what the problem with the Terp rushing defense is overall though I know some is certainly attributable to poor tackling from the games I've seen. Andre Brown is a threat to break big plays for the Pack and MD will have to keep him contained. I think this game should be very close, but I would say right now that I think NCST has a better chance of stopping MD running game than vice versa. Of course i am just hoping for any kind of MD win but they will have to put together a better overall game than they played last week.
 
I'm glad to read this tim...the resident terp guru approving of my value on the fade the turtle play is high praise, I think.

...I hate ncsu as a fave, but I played em anyway last week at -3. I don't think wake's a sason breaking loss for the pack, but obviously I woulda liked to see them win it...

I honestly think UMD & NCSU are pretty evenly matched. Brown is certainly a threat, and Baker is no slouch either, but it's Evans' viable passing threat that has been allowing the pack running game to work (with marcus stone in, this is a UMD spread play for sure). On a neutral site I would think a pk or NCSU fave -1 or -2...but I think NCSU will likely win by 6 or 7. ...it will definitely be a dogfight tho, and with the mass of teams vying for the divisional champ slots, all these games will be of supreme importance. Off a loss, the pack should be more driven than MD of a win. How the hell did UVA score so much on your boys? If the first guy doesn't tackle brown and baker, ncsu will have no trouble putting up 30.

I'll pull for your boys the 28th...

GL on your wagers this week, bro.
 
the only guy I care about not being suspended is Willis...I'm on them +7 here...E. Carolina has a ton of injuries...
 
Important Injuries
SMU
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/16 4:41am RB DeMyron Martin Hamstring upgraded to probable.
10/16 4:39am WR Zach Sledge Possible Suspension is "?".
10/15 4:20am KR Jessie Henderson Acquired left last game, "?".
10/15 2:56am DE Justin Rogers Neck missed last game, "?".
10/15 2:56am DE Cory Muse Knee missed last game, "?".
East Carolina
Date Pos Player Injury Status
10/17 6:22am WR Bobby Good Foot is expected to miss.
10/15 2:55am WR Aundrae Allison Ankle missed last game, "?".
 
Red - MD did a poor job in the 1h stopping the run and let VA develop some confidence on the line of scrimmage. Snelling got off a little and then Sewell made some plays and scrambled well when the receivers were covered. MD couldn't sustain any drives on offense as usual and got back in the game vs. critical turnovers by VA and very conservative playcalling in the 2nd half. I think this NCST gm. is really a coin flip type game and I think the Pack is probably playing a little better in the trenches right now.
 
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