I'll start with my thoughts in the week 7 discussion thread and go from there:
Den/Cle - Baker, Chubb and Hunt all out, yet Browns are still 2 point favorites. Goes to show how crappy Denver has looked the last 3 weeks. If Landry is in the lineup I can see the Browns as a play, otherwise they're just too depleted to trust.
Browns line opened holes at will and Landry's presence gave the Browns enough skill guys to get the cover. Broncos have burned up all the goodwill from their 3-0 start. Maybe Jeudy's return helps the offense, but the defense can be had regardless. Browns should have Chubb back next week for a massive game against the Burgh.
Wash/GB - Pack might be a little flat after 5 straight and their big win over the Bears. But WFT has some injury issues of their own with Thomas out and Gibson dinged up. WFT is dead last in pass yards against and next to last in total yards against. I don't see Rodgers being interested in blowing these guys out, so teasers are the way to go.
Pack only put up 24 and got some serious goal line help from the officials and silly rule interpretations. WFT had two fourth down flameouts and a pick in the Pack redzone, so I still they were probably the right side.
KC/Tenn - KC got their mojo back 2nd half last week, while Tenny just knocked off the former #1 seed and now they're getting the same number against KC? Matchup of two unstoppable forces (Mahomes and Henry) against two movable objects (KC 27th in Run D, Tenny 24th in Pass D). Can you see a scenario where the Chiefs don't get to 30? Because I can't. The only question is if the Tits can grow big enough, which they've done the last two weeks. :bouncing: Over 57.5 looks like a play. Pass on the side.
Total misread on the Chiefs and their troubles. Their porous D just puts too much pressure on the O to be near perfect, and they melted down. That Super Bowl whipping was apparently a huge confidence crusher.
Atl/Mia - This one looks like a sneaky over too with a 47.5 total. Neither team enjoys running it much, meaning more plays, more big plays and maybe more turnovers that lead to big plays. Fins have been without a pulse for awhile but can you really trust Atlanta as a road fave? Because I can't. Over only for me.
Proud of this one. Phins actually showed a little bit of a running game today, but still ran 70 plays. Pitts is really becoming a huge weapon for Ryan. Falcons are 3-3 but their 3 wins came against teams with a total of 4 wins.
NYJ/NE - They met a month ago in NJ and the Pats won by 19. Has much changed? Pats have shown themselves to be scrappy against a couple of really good teams in Dal and Tampa while also stumbling around against a dregs team like Houston. Jets have had two weeks to prepare, so one would hope they've come up with something. Pass on the -7.
How much has changed? Nothing. Jets were actually worse this time around. Pats are a dangerous 3-4 team. Mac is getting the hang of this.
Car/NYG - Darnold returns to the land of ghosts at the Meadowlands. I would think he'll get a surly reception, even if its the Giant fans. Carolina thumped Houston as an 8 point fave a few weeks ago. Now against a 1=5 Giants team missing Barkley, Golloday, maybe Slayton and certainly Toney, they're only -3. I'll probably nose and take the FG. If it goes to +3.5 I'm definitely in.
Yeah this line stunk to high heaven. Darnold has no confidence in anyone but Moore and opponents have caught on. I don't know what happened to Robby Anderson since last year but he is just awful this year. Maybe he and Darnold didn't get along in NY, I don't know. Giants are not a good team, but they could be OK in the 2nd half when/if they get Barkley, Golloday and Toney back.
Cinc/Balt - Should be a terrific matchup as the Bengals appear to have something going on this year. Both teams are familiar with playing close games this year, another one won't be a surprise. Bengals +6..5 for me.
Wow, another big confidence builder for Joe Cool and Co. The chemistry with Chase is off the charts. Ravens seemed to panic going for it on 4th and 7 from their 38 with almost 12 minutes still left in the game and only down 10. When they failed that seemed to take the fight out of them. They'll be back, although that win over KC isn't looking as good as it did a week ago.
Philly/Vegas - Vegas brushed off their Gruden circus with the best effort of the year, I think they come back down off the emotion a bit this week and let the Eagles cover and maybe win outright. That -3 line has a little bit of a smell to it. Helps that Philly has the extra prep time.
My other bad miss this week. How much longer do the Eagles roll with Hurts? There's about 7 winnable games left on the Eagles schedule and 9 wins looks like it will be in the mix for that last playoff spot in the NFC. Smith, Goedert, Reagor, Gainewell....they've got guys that can catch the ball. Might be time for Minshew.
Det/LAR - big number for the Rams to cover (-15.5). Would think they're more than capable, but after laying the wood to the Giants, and after Detroit getting a beatdown from Cincy, do we think both happen again this week? I'm inclined to take the points here. Lions have fought hard more often than not. Would think Goff would like to show up here too. Helps to see 75%+ on the Rams too. Public gonna public.
Lions put it all out there today, props to them. Fake punt, surprise onside kick....they did their best. They're just not that good and outside of Swift and Hockensen there's no one that can make plays. I'm still not convinced Stafford will get it done in the playoffs, but he'll get his chance.
Hou/Ari - Another monster number. These 4 pm games kinda blow this week. Similar scenario as in LA. Big favorite off a big road win comes home to play a team that just got thumped. And 85% is on the favorite. I'll take the 17.
Zona pissed around a good 25 minutes before kicking into gear. Houston is just a 2nd half cash machine. They suck and they quit. And that may just be the plan.
Chi/Tampa - Game is a style mismatch, as the Bears pass game blows but Tampa snuffs out the run. Similarly the Bucs are better passing but the Bears are softer against the run. Makes me want to lean to the under 47, which since the over is getting 78% of the money on Yahoo makes for perfect synergy. 27-17, 30-13 both work.
38-3 works too. The Bears actual ran it a bit, but they still couldn't do much. Fields looked about as bad as any QB I've seen since Peterman or Ben DeNucci.
