Week 7 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Wow what a week 6
We had quite a few ML Dogs hit.

Let’s get this thread started!

What’s on tap for Week 7
 
First run through:

UVA
Navy
Nebraska
Ga St
Hawaii
Wash St
Ole Miss
TN
Arkansas
Mid TN St
N Tex
Charlotte
Iowa

Liking a lot of dogs this week. Will have to narrow this down, but opportunities will be had this weekend.
 
Vols - competed with Uga pretty decently, why not Messy? Nice arm.
Texas - Banged up so probably not but what if Oklahoma cannot stop them and it is last team with the ball wins?
Temple - Capable of taking away the run from a lot of teams, which would then be making Brady White beat them and that is always worth a look
Michigan State - Match up well defensively. If Wisconsin plays offense the way they did vs NW, then Michigan State will win. Kind of a bad spot though.
Florida State - When FSU has looked bad, some of it has appeared effort based and execution based. Team has been improving as the year has progressed and they absolutely have talent on that team. Very easy to get up for this game. If they can take away the up for grabs throws, back shoulders, etc. they can compete in this one. I realize this is a VERY big longshot but you don't find many 4 score dogs with a legit shot if they catch a few breaks.
Texas Tech - shrug
MTSU - Well the line is wrong so there must be some value on the ML .. I really don't think they win though
Ga State - Game rates to be wild with scoring so why not?
Iowa - Good defense at home (PSU has some periods of offensive ineptness)
Nebraska - shrug
Florida - just on the premise that LSU isn't tested. they look very good to me but would I be shocked if they faced Florida and the QB found life a lot more difficult? not really
Hawaii - Boise looks like dog poo
wyoming - both offenses look to run but both offenses should struggle to succeed .. so a few key penalties and big plays are gonna decide this puppy
Arizona - maybe Washington is capable of 8 straight bad quarters
 
Still feeling the effects of Tulsa....."Kicker - you have one job...ONE JOB!"

Fresno St. - coming off a BYE; which gave time to prepare for the triple option. A.F. coming off the lost to Navy and how the game ended....not sure on how they'll respond. Fresno has been competitive.
 
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I've been terrible this year....again.

Anyway, first trip thru I kinda like the SEC

Florida.....if Vandy can put up 35+ on the Tigers, I'm thinking Dan Mullen ought to figure out how to score against them as well.
Arkansas....hate to go against my team but our QB situation is a wreck.
Tennessee....for two years now we have seen MSU get creamed on the road.
USCjr....not thinking they'll win (but it's not too crazy of a thought is it?) but with a week off they should have prepped enough to stay with the Dawgs at least for a half. The 1st half ML should be attractive.
 
JROCK1966 said:
I've been terrible this year....again.

Anyway, first trip thru I kinda like the SEC

Florida.....if Vandy can put up 35+ on the Tigers, I'm thinking Dan Mullen ought to figure out how to score against them as well.
Arkansas....hate to go against my team but our QB situation is a wreck.
Tennessee....for two years now we have seen MSU get creamed on the road.
USCjr....not thinking they'll win (but it's not too crazy of a thought is it?) but with a week off they should have prepped enough to stay with the Dawgs at least for a half. The 1st half ML should be attractive.
Click to expand...
Plenty of season left...I think the dog barking started in earnest last week and will continue this month ...
 
I've been awful as well, I think I've won like 3 or 4 of 30 maybe? I don't know.

Thinking of upsets I would actually put money on to win?

Tennessee
Michigan State
West Virginia
 
I did real well w them last week w Pitt and beavers, feel like bc woulda cashed too if brown didn’t get hurt, hated seeing that he had really improved imo. They still covered tho!!

I’m behind cause been so into playoff baseball but gonna start looking now.,
 
booksbestfriend said:
First run through:

UVA
Navy
Nebraska
Ga St
Hawaii
Wash St
Ole Miss
TN
Arkansas
Mid TN St
N Tex
Charlotte
Iowa

Liking a lot of dogs this week. Will have to narrow this down, but opportunities will be had this weekend.
Click to expand...

Uva line seems so suspect to me, little scared they gonna be very popular, I know I circled it right away which usually means it really square!! Lol

Hawaii is interesting, at least with the points!!
 
2daBank said:
Uva line seems so suspect to me, little scared they gonna be very popular, I know I circled it right away which usually means it really square!! Lol

Hawaii is interesting, at least with the points!!
Click to expand...
Line was going the opposite direction earlier today. I don’t get it either. UVA coming off bye, better coach, more disciplined...I am missing something.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Line was going the opposite direction earlier today. I don’t get it either. UVA coming off bye, better coach, more disciplined...I am missing something.
Click to expand...

I like Virginia too. I suspect it will be hard to find many liking Miami if you had to make a case for them. The only case I could see is athletic potential of their guys vs Virginia's guys. Like Maineroad said when UVA played FSU, FSU's 4 and 5 stars vs guys UVA stole from whatever group of lower tier schools he listed.

They have played every year since Miami joined the ACC in 2004.

Miami has only been a dog 3 times:

'04 +3.5 at #10 UVA, Canes won 31-21
'08 +1.5 at UVA, Canes won 24-17 OT
'12 +1 at UVA, UVA won 41-40

So they've never been a home dog vs UVA as ACC members.

And if you flip it, if this game was played in Charlottesville it would mark or match Virginia's largest favorite role vs them.
 
The Baylor line seems pretty high?

Then I looked, this appears to be the first time since 2008 that this game hasn't been a neutral field. So that explains a high number in the series with the HF Adv, I like Baylor this year, just don't know if they are the kind of team you expect to win by DDs vs a team that has similar players and just might've found some confidence.
 
Turnovers are always the #1 concern with McDonald. They had NONE at Nevada, which was shocking. Prior to that they were averaging 3 lost per game. But one thing is for sure, beating Nevada the way they did - it matters not who it was, just winning and playing that well on the road will give them confidence going into Boise and they have played 3 PAC12 teams, beat 2 of them, that no doubt has them a confident bunch as well. Just watch out for those turnovers, Boise notorious for getting them in bunches, although not so much so far this year.
 
The way this season has gone for Charlotte (playing better than expected) and FIU (not playing as well as expected), it just feels like Charlotte can win this game. Not sure anyone will want to put stock in FIU beating UMass up (although I think somebody suggested UMass could win last week - in jest perhaps). I may have to go back and look at how the FAU-49er game went down. Bye after that. I think there is some good will and buy-in with their new coach.

Looking back, FIU is 3-0 vs Charlotte but FIU was outgained in each game and won all 3 by a total of 9 pts. Hmmm...
 
Ryno14 said:
Jesus. All the Vols love...may God have mercy on your souls.
Click to expand...

Haha. Well, for me, I have bet against Miss St 4x this year and ML'd against them twice. And then there were the signs of life out of Vols last week. So it kind of matches up for me.

You think that can carry over? All that work in the bye week produced some fruit in the way of competitive early play vs UGA. Sure Georgia pulled away and covered late, but it didn't happen the way most people would've thought going in.
 
s--k said:
The way this season has gone for Charlotte (playing better than expected) and FIU (not playing as well as expected), it just feels like Charlotte can win this game. Not sure anyone will want to put stock in FIU beating UMass up (although I think somebody suggested UMass could win last week - in jest perhaps). I may have to go back and look at how the FAU-49er game went down. Bye after that. I think there is some good will and buy-in with their new coach.

Looking back, FIU is 3-0 vs Charlotte but FIU was outgained in each game and won all 3 by a total of 9 pts. Hmmm...
Click to expand...

But they left the games without their beards.
 
Gawd....second time thru seeing several possibilities that look good to me....

Florida
Houston
Temple
Michigan State
USCjr 1st Qtr & 1st Half
USF
Louisville
Texas
West Virginia
 
Call me crazy but I like Houston as well. USF isn't very good but neither is byu and they have a QB making his first start ever in Hall this week. He is a great runner, not sure if usf will have to respect the pass much though. I expect a loaded box all game long.
 
s--k said:
The Baylor line seems pretty high?

Then I looked, this appears to be the first time since 2008 that this game hasn't been a neutral field. So that explains a high number in the series with the HF Adv, I like Baylor this year, just don't know if they are the kind of team you expect to win by DDs vs a team that has similar players and just might've found some confidence.
Click to expand...

Interesting. Thought this game was tied into Jerry World for awhile longer. Guess not.
 
s--k said:
I like Virginia too. I suspect it will be hard to find many liking Miami if you had to make a case for them.
Click to expand...

Which is exactly what scares me bout uva!! Lol.

I do my best to ignore the whole sharp/square, betting percentages thing, imo doesn’t hold the weight it used to back in the day. That said I still get gun shy with overwhelmingly popular dogs, feel like they begging for uva money, lol.
 
Missouri is DD favs? I really expected to see -7 there!! And it moving close to 2 tds than 10? Seems crazy to me. Ol piss seems to have found the qb who works best for rich rod offense! I’m def leaning ol piss w the points, the over as well, I think they could def win this game.
 
2daBank said:
Missouri is DD favs? I really expected to see -7 there!! And it moving close to 2 tds than 10? Seems crazy to me. Ol piss seems to have found the qb who works best for rich rod offense! I’m def leaning ol piss w the points, the over as well, I think they could def win this game.
Click to expand...
This might have been the play of the week IMHO if Bryant is not able to play but what I have read up to this point is saying he will. Mizzou did lose they’re top LB though fwiw.
 
Gotta like Iowa this week no? Last week went perfectly to set this one up far as I’m concerned. Was actually hoping Michigan took them to the woodshed but simply winning with most on Iowa I think gave me what I was lookin for here. Iowa at night w big revenge on their minds!
 
JROCK1966 said:
This might have been the play of the week IMHO if Bryant is not able to play but what I have read up to this point is saying he will. Mizzou did lose they’re top LB though fwiw.
Click to expand...

Forgot Bryant even got hurt, w that line I just assumed he has to be good to go. Just like ol piss to have success on offense.
 
JROCK1966 said:
What are you thinking @s—k is the loss of Garrett large enough to consider a play on Ole Miss?
Click to expand...

I don't have a good feel for Ole Miss, but I'm not shy of going against Missouri. If their best player on O isn't 100% and if arguably the best player on their team is out that would make them vulnerable.

I saw how the S Car game went. While every game is unique and different, Mizzou didn't look great there (misleading final).

Like always I'll probably have no fewer than 20 or so dogs Saturday but am not sure which ones if any I will ML.
 
Miami Ohio +400 v. Western Michigan?

No byes for Western Michigan yet and they're coming off two grueling conference games. They lost vs. Toledo and were outgained in yardage and first downs in a win against Central Michigan.
Miami comes in rested off a bye.
Miami Ohio 8-1 ATS in last 9 MAC games
Not sure if this warrants a play, but something to consider.
 
s--k said:
I don't have a good feel for Ole Miss, but I'm not shy of going against Missouri. If their best player on O isn't 100% and if arguably the best player on their team is out that would make them vulnerable.

I saw how the S Car game went. While every game is unique and different, Mizzou didn't look great there (misleading final).

Like always I'll probably have no fewer than 20 or so dogs Saturday but am not sure which ones if any I will ML.
Click to expand...

I feel like I’ve actually had a pretty good read on ol piss. Lost w them to open season against Memphis in a game they coulda easily covered, the defense played well but rich rod hadn’t figured the offense out as of yet, since have hit a few totals with them and loved them vs vandy last week. Strangely enough mizzou been tougher for me but feel like they can absolutely be run on by a team like ol piss with way this qb fits in with what rich rod wants to do. I think the ole miss defense has mostly been solid (bama game notwithstanding, obviously mizzou don’t have the wrs or passer of bama). I dunno if they win but I like getting anything more than 10, I was shocked it was this high. Prob will sprinkle the ml.

Speaking of Memphis, isn’t temple worth a look as home dogs?
 
2daBank said:
Gotta like Iowa this week no? Last week went perfectly to set this one up far as I’m concerned. Was actually hoping Michigan took them to the woodshed but simply winning with most on Iowa I think gave me what I was lookin for here. Iowa at night w big revenge on their minds!
Click to expand...

Speaking of setting things up for future weeks, how beautiful would it be if Iowa wins this game to set it up for psu to smoke Michigan next week?! lol
 
Just locked this one in. 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7 teamer RRs:

Temple +170
WVU +315
Tennessee +220
USF +170
Houston +240
Rutgers 1st Qtr +575
USCjr 1st Qtr +415
Risking $49.50 (99 parlays at $0.50 each) to win $30,821

If I win anything I’ll be playing Ole Miss, Arizona, Florida, and Louisville in the nightcap.

BOLTA!!!

PS - in the likely event that I lose, I bought some Two Roads Two Juicy NEIPA and Come Hell or Highwater Melon to drown my sorrows in. Sound like a plan??
 
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