Week 7 Lookahead vs Openers/ Discussion

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
First number lookahead. Second number opener

Denver -2.5/ -1.5
LAC -3/ -6.5
NE -3/ -2.5
TB -1.5/ -3
Det -2 / off
Philly -3 / -3.5
Indy -5.5/ -6.5
KC -6.5 / -6
Minn -4 / -3
Jax -4.5/ -4.5
Balt pk / -2.5
Wash -3 / -1.5
Rams -12.5/ -11
Atlanta -3.5 / -5.5

Big moves on Chargers, Balt, Atlanta, for Dallas (vs Wash) and against Rams.

Just got home from the game. We’re on to Cincinnati
 
Cap, nothing to be ashamed of from your boys; the game lived up to the hype and they were right there in it at the end on the road with zero defense. that is impressive.

my initial reaction is that this is the worst card of the year.

Can see myself talking myself into Zona at home but talk about a game everyone should just stay away from

Chargers really rounding into form, might be willing to lay the points there but the chargers are the chargers and this is a prime classic choke spot for them

New England is going to have 80% of the public on that side aren't they? is this a "hold your nose and play the bears" spot? or is it a "sharp rules don't count when the patriots are involved" spot..i lean towards the latter

I do expect a dominant defense effort at home from Jacksonville; houstons offense just doesn't look right. but very hard to lay points with the Jags right now

Wisely laid off Cleveland yesterday; may be time to jump back on that wagon in Tampa.

Baltimore sure does look like a sharp side.

Washington opened -1 at home vs Carolina and -2 at home vs Dallas. So they are saying the Panthers are just one point better than Dallas? I don't agree there.

Rams have been winning but not covering; howeveri don't see them having much trouble with SF. Not laying 11 on the road though.

KC/Cincy should go over whenever that total is released, buti t could be 60+

Why not keep fading the Giants?

Initial leans:

Browns +3
KC/Cincy over whatever
Baltimore -2.5
Atlanta -5

Really don't like this card though
 
I already locked in browns +3. If it hits +4 ill either tease or add to side.

Chiefs -6 i like too but i assume its one of the “sucker” bets because of letdown factor but im not buying bengals at all.

Bears+3 once juice settles.
 
Shouldn't be a letdown spot in KC as they're coming off a loss. That offense was pretty damn impressive. Plus there's the whole Andy Dalton in prime time angle. I know as of a few years ago he was batting .000 in that role. I know he has a couple under his belt now but still nothing impressive.
 
Could be a letdown after a tough loss v. their biggest competition in the AFC. It could be hard to get up....like I said though I'll probably be on them with the rest of the world -6.
 
How do you have a letdown after a loss? Not like KC lost a playoff spot or something. They were small underdogs on the road, not really expected to win but proved they were for real.

A letdown spot is like Gators beating LSU then playing at Vandy.

That being said I lean Bengals I just don‘t think KC has enough defense to cover. I‘d think the spread makes it to 7 or even 7.5
 
VirginiaCavs said:
How do you have a letdown after a loss? Not like KC lost a playoff spot or something. They were small underdogs on the road, not really expected to win but proved they were for real.

A letdown spot is like Gators beating LSU then playing at Vandy.

That being said I lean Bengals I just don‘t think KC has enough defense to cover. I‘d think the spread makes it to 7 or even 7.5
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You don't think letdowns after big losses happen? No one said they lost a playoff spot but if you don't think they are deflated today after almost beating the Patriots you'd be mistaken. They'll be thinking about this one all week and perhaps not focusing on the Bengals because who cares about the Bengals in KC. They cared about beating the Patriots and yes, letdowns happen after losses too.

This isn't like they lost to a random scrub. They lost a game that is probably the one they want to win the most this regular season.

I didn't say they WOULD letdown, I said there is a risk...and there is.
 
They care about winning every game. Maybe they celebrated too hard after beating rival Denver on the road in dramatic fashion? You could claim this about everyone. They‘re not immature college kids like last year‘s Florida State this is just a loss that they‘ll move on from. Ridiculous to claim let-down here and not in every other game....what about Titties or Jags who lost big? What about Cardinals who really wanted to surprise Minnesota lol
 
Jeez VC lighten up. He mentioned possible let down, don't have to break the guy's balls over it & claim his statement is ridiculous. I get where he's coming from but this would be more a hangover than letdown. However I don't think Cinci is a team that can be looked past. They are a legit opponent.
 
rambler882 said:
Could be a letdown after a tough loss v. their biggest competition in the AFC. It could be hard to get up....like I said though I'll probably be on them with the rest of the world -6.
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Reports from the locker room everyone was super upbeat despite the L. They know they're working with a skeleton crew on D right now. Should respond nicely with a home primetime game. Though I'm sure Dalton will throw for 400+
 
aplous said:
Reports from the locker room everyone was super upbeat despite the L. They know they're working with a skeleton crew on D right now. Should respond nicely with a home primetime game. Though I'm sure Dalton will throw for 400+
Click to expand...
Thanks for the tip here and is why I mentioned the "risk of a letdown". It is good to info share on this front to learn about what the state of things are. I have a feeling the lowly Jaguars were not upbeat after being embarrassed by the Chiefs and hence why they did not show up in Dallas.

Making me want to play Chiefs -6 at this point. Bengals are not a strong team.
 
Lets keep the discussion going...


Lions laying on the road down at Joe Robbie/ Sun Life / Hard Rock...whatever it is. I am glad the Dolphins won yesterday so that they are a bit high on themselves. Like I said last week, this is a sneaky Detroit team. If they could improve the defense against the run just a little bit we would be cooking with something. Now, do I want to lay points? Obviously not. I do think the Lions win this game though. I really do. Both road games so far they were in it to win it at the end and couldn't make the plays when needed. The Dolphins are smoke and mirrors.
 
Joe mixon should have a freaking monster gm vs kc. Dunno if that equates to bungals staying within the number but I’ll be all over him in dfs.
 
Hard not to like the browns as dogs in Tampa. I would think they would turn shamus over at least 2x possibly more.

After riding w jets the last 2 weeks think it time to jump ship. Been riding minny last 2 as well and think they continue improving as the d gets back on track, cousins and co should shred the jets secondary. Hate playing road favs but think it the play here w minny -3.,

Thursday night is just gross. Suppose that a blessing in disguise as I hate that bs cashgrab anyways.

Feel like i always play ravens as home favs, prob will be on them laying less than 3. Doubt brees will see guys running free all over like he enjoyed against skins.

Was really hoping Philly didn’t look good thu and/or panthers looked better yesterday cause I was salivating at chance to get eagles-3 here but obviously that didn’t come to fruition. Still like philly as i think the passing game will get better and better going forward as they all play together, panthers secondary can be had. Just not sure how I feel bout laying 4.5?
 
Houston/jags the under 42.5 makes sense. Neither offense has a identity, houston defense been looking good, I’d think it be safe to assume jags d bounces back in a big way. The points tempting as well cause I just don’t see any light at end of tunnel for the jags offense. You would think watching dak runs would have Watson giddy! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Houston/jags the under 42.5 makes sense. Neither offense has a identity, houston defense been looking good, I’d think it be safe to assume jags d bounces back in a big way. The points tempting as well cause I just don’t see any light at end of tunnel for the jags offense. You would think watching dak runs would have Watson giddy! Lol
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Mariota and Prescott have had their way on the ground in a big way. Gotta think Watson does the same and he did do that some last year when he came in for Savage in the opener
 
Love the Bears @rambler882
They flunked the second half due to heat exhaustion but people only see that they gave up 31 points to Osweiler and they see 43 points from Pats. Gonna be lots of value on them especially by end of week
 
so home dogs are now 18-9 against the spread this year. this has worked out well for me as I love to bet home dogs. if you factor out the giants, who I have sworn off of betting ever, they are 18-6. this has to even out right? is it time to start looking for road favorites? generally these things move towards even as the year goes on.
 
jesus. so u have the bills who are gonna be playing Derek Anderson or Peterman at qb, vs the Colts who have Ryan Grant and Marcus Johnson injured now, with TY already out and Ebron nursing 4 injuries, my god, can you put together a competent NFL offense if you combined both rosters?
 
D-Woww said:
jesus. so u have the bills who are gonna be playing Derek Anderson or Peterman at qb, vs the Colts who have Ryan Grant and Marcus Johnson injured now, with TY already out and Ebron nursing 4 injuries, my god, can you put together a competent NFL offense if you combined both rosters?
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Game of the week material right there. Just need the dentist who kicked for Gators a few years ago to top it off
 
GWarner27 said:
before i read anything in here, unless Baker is hurt the +3 CLE is getting @TB is silly
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understand the thought and I lean that way too but TB has beaten NO and Philly and played the Falcons tough on the road. All 3 of those teams > Browns. tampa might not be as bad as u think
 
i am going to look into Jags AFCS futures as i think they win this week and the rest of the division is horrendous, but laying points with Bortles is borderline criminal.

Also like BAL but have decided to wait on favorites until kick to see if I can get a better price/if I lose it then I am happy to skip. Offense beats defense in this league and there is a lot to be said about NO road splits, but I don’t feel comfortable laying points with Flacco vs Brees

I would urge people to throw out the let-down factor in professional sports, maybe all sports besides college sports

Not to attack @rambler882 further, but I don’t know why anybody would back CHI getting anything less than 3.5 here (though I wouldn’t want that at all either). Missed NE -2.5 but would play it if I had another opportunity— doubtful we ever see it. Don’t think CHI gets home enough with their pass rush as Brady is the master of the quick release and he has a healthy offense finally in Week 7

Can DET run the ball? Did one kerryon Johnson performance change the narrative?

PHI will get better as they get healthier, but I’m not sure smashing NYG is enough to jump on the bandwagon just yet. CAR defense has bad YPP numbers, which was surprising for me to learn early Sunday before the game, and trailing for 60-minutes @WAS wasn’t impressive

Laying nearly a TD with IND is a new thought-process, but Peterman nearly gave up a cover on +10 with a 3-point lead late in the 4q. How he started a game over Tyrod I will never understand
 
D-Woww said:
understand the thought and I lean that way too but TB has beaten NO and Philly and played the Falcons tough on the road. All 3 of those teams > Browns. tampa might not be as bad as u think
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the TB defense couldn't stop a nose bleed, CLE isn't strong offensively but TB had to fight back after trailing the entire game @ATL who is so depleted by injury on defense.

I'm not a CLE buyer, but it's a pretty easy argument to make that they should have won @NO
 
D-Woww said:
understand the thought and I lean that way too but TB has beaten NO and Philly and played the Falcons tough on the road. All 3 of those teams > Browns. tampa might not be as bad as u think
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Personally not a fan of transitive property in capping because it disregards team form match-up factors etc
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Someone pitch me a good case for Tennessee. Potentially significant value there
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gotta be their defense and Succop is reliable? That may be the best i got

Mariota can't hit receivers, he can run but LAC surely knows that. Rivers can move the ball and he has a deep lineup of WRs, especially if Tyrell Williams can go off like he did sunday. Gordon has to be the first priority, Allen second then the Williamses if you're TEN and the offense bottomed last week with no sign of improvement
 
GWarner27 said:
gotta be their defense and Succop is reliable? That may be the best i got

Mariota can't hit receivers, he can run but LAC surely knows that. Rivers can move the ball and he has a deep lineup of WRs, especially if Tyrell Williams can go off like he did sunday. Gordon has to be the first priority, Allen second then the Williamses if you're TEN and the offense bottomed last week with no sign of improvement
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How did your pitch for Tenny turn into one for Chargers? :D
 
GWarner27 said:
i am going to look into Jags AFCS futures as i think they win this week and the rest of the division is horrendous, but laying points with Bortles is borderline criminal.

Also like BAL but have decided to wait on favorites until kick to see if I can get a better price/if I lose it then I am happy to skip. Offense beats defense in this league and there is a lot to be said about NO road splits, but I don’t feel comfortable laying points with Flacco vs Brees

I would urge people to throw out the let-down factor in professional sports, maybe all sports besides college sports

Not to attack @rambler882 further, but I don’t know why anybody would back CHI getting anything less than 3.5 here (though I wouldn’t want that at all either). Missed NE -2.5 but would play it if I had another opportunity— doubtful we ever see it. Don’t think CHI gets home enough with their pass rush as Brady is the master of the quick release and he has a healthy offense finally in Week 7

Can DET run the ball? Did one kerryon Johnson performance change the narrative?

PHI will get better as they get healthier, but I’m not sure smashing NYG is enough to jump on the bandwagon just yet. CAR defense has bad YPP numbers, which was surprising for me to learn early Sunday before the game, and trailing for 60-minutes @WAS wasn’t impressive

Laying nearly a TD with IND is a new thought-process, but Peterman nearly gave up a cover on +10 with a 3-point lead late in the 4q. How he started a game over Tyrod I will never understand
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haha not an attack at all. Why Chicago. I honestly look at a few things here and believe it begins and ends in the trenches. The Patriots have zero pass rush and if you give Trubisky or this offense any time they will put up points. In fact, the Patriots are bottom 5 I believe in qb hits and/or pass rush metrics.

Then, on the flip side, the way you beat the Patriots is with a pass rush which the Bears do have. I get the Fins game but that is an outlier. They were not focused, clearly did not show up on that side of the ball, and perhaps they looked ahead...I don't know and don't want to put out excuses however if Mack's ankle is not a hindrance expect to see Brady locked up. Shift to Gronk and the Bears actually have the LBs who can cover him in Smith & Trevathan.

A little bit of homerism here but given how much of an advantage the Bears have in the trenches I like getting the 3.5. Not saying it is a 100000 lock max bet, but it is a play I've been waiting on for a few weeks.
 
I'll let this one go after here but if you dont believe in letdowns that is fair, you don't have to. I just know I've witnessed it, I've talked to professional athletes who validate it definitely occurs, and I do factor the potential of one into a play. I do not simply assume a letdown because of a win or loss, but it is always top of mind to at least consider and evaluate.

Several things go into the evaluation as well. The most important being veteran versus young team and coaching. I do agree it is more prevalent in college than professional.

Enough about that and back on track to determining winners this week. Bears +3.5, Colts/Jaguars ML parlay, and Browns +3 are my first 3 plays.
 
Quick thoughts on my first 3 plays.

Bears +3.5: This one is based on the trenches as I mentioned above. Also, I really do believe the Bears will put up points. I don't think the Patriots have the personnel to "trick" a young QB with schemes. I am leaning into a Bears TT as well here. If this hits +4, I'll tease it to +10

Browns +3: this started with value after a blowout. I think we are getting a few points of value after the Browns big loss and the Bucs seemingly keeping it close vs. the injury plagued Falcons. This is a game where the Browns defense has the ability to shut down the Bucs entirely and I think Mayfield can put up 20+ here.

Jaguars-Colts: Jaguars is mostly a gut play. Two embarrassing losses, playoff contender, top 5 defense, versus a Bill O'Brien coached team. Colts was a fade of the potential that Allen is out and he has been ruled out. I love the Bills defense but with Peterman at QB I think the Colts ML is a solid play.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Love the Bears @rambler882
They flunked the second half due to heat exhaustion but people only see that they gave up 31 points to Osweiler and they see 43 points from Pats. Gonna be lots of value on them especially by end of week
Click to expand...

I think heat absolutely got to the defense. Only thing that kept me off them. Of course I was so proud of getting that under 44.5 at open, lot of good that did me, and it looked so damn good too!! lol!!

Def tempted to play bears if we can get +4. Also interested in the under again.
 
rambler882 said:
haha not an attack at all. Why Chicago. I honestly look at a few things here and believe it begins and ends in the trenches. The Patriots have zero pass rush and if you give Trubisky or this offense any time they will put up points. In fact, the Patriots are bottom 5 I believe in qb hits and/or pass rush metrics.

Then, on the flip side, the way you beat the Patriots is with a pass rush which the Bears do have. I get the Fins game but that is an outlier. They were not focused, clearly did not show up on that side of the ball, and perhaps they looked ahead...I don't know and don't want to put out excuses however if Mack's ankle is not a hindrance expect to see Brady locked up. Shift to Gronk and the Bears actually have the LBs who can cover him in Smith & Trevathan.

A little bit of homerism here but given how much of an advantage the Bears have in the trenches I like getting the 3.5. Not saying it is a 100000 lock max bet, but it is a play I've been waiting on for a few weeks.
Click to expand...

Really don’t think that bye came at a opportune time for bears as I mentioned last week, young team gaining momentum I just didn’t like the timing. Throw in the heat and that defense was gassed in the 4th qrtr imo. Think we see a much much better effort this week. Seems like there absolutely something wrong w Gronk or he just breaking down (prob why pats looked at trading him this offseason) he still flashes greatness but isn’t the force for entire games like he used to be. Gabriel and Cohen will be a nightmare for a slowish pats defense imo.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Mariota and Prescott have had their way on the ground in a big way. Gotta think Watson does the same and he did do that some last year when he came in for Savage in the opener
Click to expand...

If Houston wasn’t so terribly coached I’d be much more excited to play them. I thought they were gonna win this division at beginning of year but don’t think I realized how terrible O’Brien was! Lol.. think they far and away the most talented team in division, obviously jags w the better secondary but Texans defense still pretty dang good and they have far and away the most talented offensive pieces in division. Unfortunately they just don’t play like it!! Battle of mediocre playcallers here!! Lol
 
rambler882 said:
haha not an attack at all. Why Chicago. I honestly look at a few things here and believe it begins and ends in the trenches. The Patriots have zero pass rush and if you give Trubisky or this offense any time they will put up points. In fact, the Patriots are bottom 5 I believe in qb hits and/or pass rush metrics.

Then, on the flip side, the way you beat the Patriots is with a pass rush which the Bears do have. I get the Fins game but that is an outlier. They were not focused, clearly did not show up on that side of the ball, and perhaps they looked ahead...I don't know and don't want to put out excuses however if Mack's ankle is not a hindrance expect to see Brady locked up. Shift to Gronk and the Bears actually have the LBs who can cover him in Smith & Trevathan.

A little bit of homerism here but given how much of an advantage the Bears have in the trenches I like getting the 3.5. Not saying it is a 100000 lock max bet, but it is a play I've been waiting on for a few weeks.
Click to expand...

i'd love to give Trubisky all day to think about and then throw an INT. The quick stuff that Nagy practiced with him mentally the night before he can do, otherwise i'd pay to see it.

Hitting brady is certainly how to beat NE, but that's been the same thing for years and covering Gronk doesn't stop that. He has Hogan and Gordon to stretch the field with Edelman and White to catch everything short, not sure CHI can force him to hold onto the ball.

Seeing you as a fan makes me understand the play a little more, i can't imagine most people feel your way so maybe the smart money is with you. I don't think the move to 3.5 is a public thing and i expect it to climb higher once the public sees how cheap NE is
 
Trubisky has improved significantly each game. His numbers after the “scripted” plays have been good the last few games as well. The more reps hes getting the better.

Check 2h of Fins. They arent a top 10 defense but neither are the Pats.

Also, my instinct is nagy saving some unique schemes and plays for the Pats. Speaking of him...the way mcvey schemes WRs open so does nagy.

Shifting into WRs of pats. Yup very good there too but bears have solid corners, etc. It all goes back to pressure. As long as mack not significantly handicapped i like the bears chances.

A half point move is whatever.
 
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