***Week 7 Lex•••

[Lexington 125]

broncos-2.5

3 units


Have to think this is an huge game for Payton and he’ll have his team ready. Even with no Surtain broncos have the better d. Contain kamarA and make rattler throw to beat you.

Saints were a sieve vs the run last week Javonte might go off. I find it interesting his td prop lines so low and he hasn’t scored yet this season. Nix might look like a pro bowler vs this saints defense.

Still looking into props Nix rushing yards over looks almost too easy. @2daBank interested in your take on props….

 

[C-MAN]

Don’t disagree with the play, but from a motivational standpoint, remember it was Payton who left New Orleans high ‘n dry, not vice versa. I’m leaning more towards the over myself. GL Lex.

 

[2daBank]

broncos-2.5

3 units


Have to think this is an huge game for Payton and he’ll have his team ready. Even with no Surtain broncos have the better d. Contain kamarA and make rattler throw to beat you.

Saints were a sieve vs the run last week Javonte might go off. I find it interesting his td prop lines so low and he hasn’t scored yet this season. Nix might look like a pro bowler vs this saints defense.

Still looking into props Nix rushing yards over looks almost too easy. @2daBank interested in your take on props….

I honestly have been waiting til sat night to focus on nfl props most weeks, lol. so much shit going on with other sports and life crap, I’ll try and take a look.

 

[2daBank]

Just realized they play tonight, . Ill check it out. I’m assuming it gonna be rattler again for saints? Also saw olave still out and think the deep threat kid also? Saints are all beat the hell up!

 

[2daBank]

Agree w you this prob means a little extra to Peyton, only small concern wasn’t Dennis Allen his OC when he coached saints? Maybe he knows Peyton better than most? Agree take kumara away ain’t not much else saints offense has to offer, rattler actually looked decent last week but that was against a tanpa d that getting roasted by everyone thru the air. Can’t see them scoring more than 17 tops on donks and that actually feels high.

 

[2daBank]

Baker had 29 on 3 rushes last week vs saints, nix is def a better scrambler than baker, but then ya look back and see they totally took Hurts rushing away. 193.5 passing feels kinda low for Nix passing, problem being he might not have to throw much tonight. This a tough one for props cause is seems like high potential for a super ugly game! Saints one the worst teams in the league allowing teams 5ypc! The problem is donks don’t seem to have one rb consistently getting carries, Williams ov 45.5 feels like cake if we could actually trust he gets the touches! Gotta think Donks lead this game and script should set up nicely for lots of rushing attempts, I have no problem with nix rushing but man Williams at 45.5 is so so tempting! Maybe the fact he only got 6 rushes Sunday bodes well here on short week he should have plenty in the tank, it be silly not to give him 10+ carries considering saints awful run d.

 

[2daBank]

Chargers had 3 running backs combine for 5 catches and 50+ yards vs donks last week. Week before raiders had 2 backs combine for 5 catches and 32 yards. Kumara rec is around 31.5, where else saints gonna throw the ball? Rattler targeted him 8x last week, think gotta look at Kumara rec yards.

 

[KJ]

Chargers had 3 running backs combine for 5 catches and 50+ yards vs donks last week. Week before raiders had 2 backs combine for 5 catches and 32 yards. Kumara rec is around 31.5, where else saints gonna throw the ball? Rattler targeted him 8x last week, think gotta look at Kumara rec yards.

Since I'll be on over I kinda need under props from you to balance the scale

 

[2daBank]

Initial leans would be

Williams ov 48.5 rush
Nix rush
Kumara ov 31.5 rec

Maybe Sutton ov 48.5 rec, he has hit 60+ in 3 of last 4 so seems to be building chemistry with nix, again the concern is will den be passing much? Concern on Williams is simply the touches, if he gets 8-12 carries I think he a slam dunk, can we trust he gets the carries? I’d think game script calls for it.

 

[2daBank]

Since I'll be on over I kinda need under props from you to balance the scale

You like the over huh? Tough for me to find points for saints with all the injuries and facing a really good den d., rattler under passing yards makes some sense as not only he lacking weapons, although he seemed to like that bub means kid! Donks only allowing 170 passing per game! Just feels to me like a ball control game with limited chances for saints. Scary but kumara under rush yards makes sense to me.

 

[Lexington 125]

Javonte rush&rec. o67.5

2 units


devaughn Vele rec yds o30.5

Javonte td +114

1 unit each


I also have all 3 +Vele anytime td @ +2500 small.

 

[Lexington 125]

My only worry about Javonte is will the fumble lost last week affect his touches. I’m betting he gets there though

 

[KJ]

You like the over huh? Tough for me to find points for saints with all the injuries and facing a really good den d., rattler under passing yards makes some sense as not only he lacking weapons, although he seemed to like that bub means kid! Donks only allowing 170 passing per game! Just feels to me like a ball control game with limited chances for saints. Scary but kumara under rush yards makes sense to me.

Doing a BROAST tonight to a fallen friend a year younger than me. Ten bros at the pub to knock down expensive John Blue just cuz

But I need to pay for that shit! His fam are in Columbia, MO...buddy is going back there for the third time in the last 10 days for Celebration of Life on Saturday. Fucked up week needs you giving me a Kamara under I guess!

 

[2daBank]

Man. Another over but speaking of bub means was that a fluke? Stands to reason rattler prob has worked with him a ton in practice, they clearly had some chemistry, and his rec number is only 36.5? Of course could be a lot different with him being the biggest wr threat donks have fo worry bout?

 

[2daBank]

My only worry about Javonte is will the fumble lost last week affect his touches. I’m betting he gets there though

Yea and his touches been all over the place anyways. Far as I can tell he easily their most talented back and against saints crappy run d, assuming donks playing this game with a lead, game script seems super favorable. One of Donks backs gonna go for 60+. Like I said if he gets 8-12 carries he should hit easy.

 

[KJ]

Man. Another over but speaking of bub means was that a fluke? Stands to reason rattler prob has worked with him a ton in practice, they clearly had some chemistry, and his rec number is only 36.5? Of course could be a lot different with him being the biggest wr threat donks have fo worry bout?

Donks defense have shut down exactly one team with an offensive pulse, TB in week 2

I don't think they're great at all

 

[2daBank]

Doing a BROAST tonight to a fallen friend a year younger than me. Ten bros at the pub to knock down expensive John Blue just cuz

But I need to pay for that shit! His fam are in Columbia, MO...buddy is going back there for the third time in the last 10 days for Celebration of Life on Saturday. Fucked up week needs you giving me a Kamara under I guess!

I hope it hits for you bud, it makes sense to me for lot of reasons but doubt I play it

 

[2daBank]

Donks defense have shut down exactly one team with an offensive pulse, TB in week 2

I don't think they're great at all

I dunno, they were pretty good last year also. Does saints offense have a pulse with all the injuries? Shutting down Tampa is pretty impressive these days

 

[2daBank]

Donks defense have shut down exactly one team with an offensive pulse, TB in week 2

I don't think they're great at all

Hey, they held the jets to 9!!!

 

[KJ]

Hey, they held the jets to 9!!!

You and I could do that

 

[2daBank]

You and I could do that

I’d be embarrassed if I gave them 9!

 

[VirginiaCavs]

How many CTG users would it take to tackle Breece Hall?

 

[2daBank]

How many CTG users would it take to tackle Breece Hall?

Luckily they rarely give him the ball. They did last week, hopefully the coaching change fixed that redic strategy!

 

[Lexington 125]

Bub rec yds o39.5+116

Bub anytime+275

1 unit each

 

[2daBank]

Bub rec yds o39.5+116

Bub anytime+275

1 unit each

Kinda feels like a must. Little concerned bout him being the focal point of d but it was pretty clear him and rattler had chemistry

 

[Lexington 125]

Kinda feels like a must. Little concerned bout him being the focal point of d but it was pretty clear him and rattler had chemistry

Denver has no choice but to focus on Kamara. We will see!

Passing up on Bo Nix rushing yards and td scored as I feel they just look too easy every stat backs up the play idk prolly hits before the half

 

[Lexington 125]

Broncos/Saints o37-112

2 units

 

[Lexington 125]

I'll be shocked if the Saints D can suddenly stop the run. Paying to see it

 

[B.A.R.]

Denver has no choice but to focus on Kamara. We will see!

Passing up on Bo Nix rushing yards and td scored as I feel they just look too easy every stat backs up the play idk prolly hits before the half

Also passed up... Ugh

 

[Lexington 125]

Also passed up... Ugh

too easy haha. played it in a little parlay but that's it. So annoying

 

[2daBank]

Denver has no choice but to focus on Kamara. We will see!

Passing up on Bo Nix rushing yards and td scored as I feel they just look too easy every stat backs up the play idk prolly hits before the half

Only thing he did well that 1st drive was run. Some awful passes missing wide open guys

 

[Lexington 125]

Payton wants tds

 

[Lexington 125]

Broncos tt o7.5-122 2ndh

2 units

 

[Lexington 125]

5-3 +7 to kick off the week. Coulda shoulda woulda on bub and vele props but it was nice to really nail a rb prop and game.

 

[Lexington 125]

props

Amon-ra rec yds o75.5-117

Saquan rush yds o79.5-114

bijan rush yds o63.5-113

Tank Bigsby rush yds o57.5-117

3 units each


Anytime TD parlay+295

Saquan Barkley
Josh jacobs
Brian Robinson jr

1.5 units


Longshot+4855

Amon-ra o94.5 & TD
Barkley rush o74.5 & TD
Bijan rush o79.5 & TD

half unit

 

[Lexington 125]

Promised myself I would not hesitate to play a prop that looks "too easy" anymore. LW I hit Mixon but really should have been a top unit wager. Then Nix rush was a gimme & I thought Javonte was another gimme. I am very wary of star player props this season and see how a ton of lines are inflated, but these three I will play today. Here's why


Amon-ra- 3 straight weeks being held under this number. Coming off a 4 target game & hasn't had under 6 targets in 2 years. Less targets this season is understandable as Detroit has been spreading the ball around. Last week was a blowout so again no need to feed him. This week is different and I think he explodes.

Vikings yards allowed to top targets this season

Garrett Wilson 100+ & TD

Jayden Reed 139 & TD
Wicks78 & 2tds

Diggs 94
NIco 86
Dell 62

Deebo 110
Kittle 76 & TD

Nabers 66


St. Brown catches is set at 6.5-148 so books think he gets targeted.... I expect a closely played game and lean Lions. Could see 10+ targets and a big game here. Really looking at the yds allowed by Minny I can't argue with any Lions receivers yds over. LaPrta @42.5, Patrick at 22.5, Jameson 49.5. Like them all and Patrick anytime td @+400 looks tempting- gimme Sun God to light up the Vikings secondary


Saquan- Storyline wager Eagles offense has looked lackluster. NYG d has looked solid but look at the numbers vs rbs with a pulse.

Aaron Jones- 14-94-1td
BRob jr.- 17-133

Chase Brown avg 5.3 lw.

Again could def make a case here for Hurts rush yds over 36.5 with the way qbs have been running on NYG. Totally makes sense but this is the Barkley revenge game I can't see it going any other way. Almost played rec yds over 15.5 still might he's gone over that # in 3 of 5. Line may be 5 yards inflated but I put him in the upper echelon of athletes and those players shine in this exact moment. Regarding a side wager I completely understand why people are fading the Eagles but this game I would not!

Bijan- After watching a couple Hawks games one thing is clear- they have trouble stopping the run. Similar to what I saw with NO last weeks which lead me to the Javonte wager....

RBs vs Hawks along with longest run of the game

Guaranto 10-99- (76 yd run)
Mason 9-73 (38 yard run)

Tracey 18-129 (27 yd run)

Gibbs 14-78 2tds (20 yd run)
Mont 12-40 1td (13 yd run)

Gibson 11-93 (45 yd run)
Stevenson 21-81 1 td (18 yd run)

Week one they held Denver largely in check but Nix had a 23 yd run and a rushing td. They held Achane to 11-30 but Miami had no qb. Allegeir prop makes sense @40.5 but I would expect them to feed Bijan and all it takes is one 20+ run to coast to victory. Longest rush is set at 16.5 I might have to play that not that I've posted all these stats it makes sense.


So there you have it- 3 star player inflated prop wagers that I can't get away from!

 

[Lexington 125]

Added Tank rush yds over.

Another "this is too easy" wager. Maye @ qb may provide the Patriots with a spark but he's not shooting the gap to stick a rb. Neither is anyone on the Pat's pathetic d. Same reasoning as LW with Mixon, can't stop the run. Now we get a nice low number on a guy that should have been getting all the carries to begin with. Etienne inactive likely played his last game with Jax. Tank's getting the ball and avg 7 ypc. He likely only needs to avg over 4 for this to hit.

Longest rush allowed by Pats

Mixon- 59 yarder
Pierce-54
Jalen Wright-17
Mostert-18
Achane-12 (only had 3 carries)
Mason-25
Breece-10
Allen-11
Moss-16

 

[Timh]

Good stuff Lex, BOL. I had Bijan and Barkley on my list today as well.

 

[Lexington 125]

Packers-3+100

Lions+1.5-105

Bengals-4.5-120

4 units each


+1357

Jags 1sth tt o12.5
Packers 1sth tt o12.5
Lions 1sth tt o12.5
Bills1sth ML
Bengals fg ML
Commanders 1sth ML

1 unit



+3200
Jags-16.5
Lions-6
Bengals-12.5

half unit

 

[B.A.R.]

Great write-ups!

 

[Lexington 125]

Still looking into a couple totals. I've been doing well finding 1 low total a week and I could see it being Philly/NYG. Nabers back and Tracey running well might be enough to get it over.

Bills thoughts- Allen & co are horrible as high home faves but I wouldn't touch the Titans either. Rudolph might be firing the ball downfield more which could lead to turnovers. I would think Allen looks to at least take a shot or to with Cooper so I think his longest rec o18.5 or +185 TD might be the way to go. Props that look good to me for Buffalo in order

Kincaid rec yds o37.5

Shakir rec yds o35.5

Cooper longest rec o18.5

Allen passing & rushing o243.5

For tds I like in this order

Ray Davis+163
Shakir+260
Kincaid+225
Cooper+185

I'm trying to whittle the Bills game wagers down so I'll be back to finalize

 

[Lexington 125]

Great write-ups!

Thanks! I get gun shy at times with stating my reasoning because a long explanation that doesn't hit makes me more aggravated if that makes any sense. Hate the thought that I potentially convinced someone into playing a loser.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thanks! I get gun shy at times with stating my reasoning because a long explanation that doesn't hit makes me more aggravated if that makes any sense. Hate the thought that I potentially convinced someone into playing a loser.

Understandable

 

[VirginiaCavs]

Great stuff Lex. I love Tank, too, only worry for me is D‘Ernest cutting in. Last week he had one less carry than Tank and ran for four more yards.

 

[Lexington 125]

live

Jags tt o20.5

2 units

 

[bulldogs]

Jefferson over 92.5

flowers anytime td +150
flowers over 58.5 rec yards

allen anytime td -110
allen over 28.5 rushing yds

 

[Lexington 125]

Two totals for early games

hawks/Falcons 1sth o25.5-118

Eagles/giants o42.5-113

3 units each

 

[Lexington 125]

Jefferson over 92.5

flowers anytime td +150
flowers over 58.5 rec yards

allen anytime td -110
allen over 28.5 rushing yds

I would be careful with Allen props… 3 rbs healthy if the run game is humming he has no need to run. I would play pass&rush number over rushing alone he might go off today.

Can’t argue jjeff or flowers props might be on flowers yds over. Gl my man

 

[2daBank]

I think o like that over on Philly/nyg also Lex

 

[Lexington 125]

Last couple early plays

Bills tt o25.5

3 units


Metcalf rec yds o67.5-115

Ray Davis td +180

Kincaid rec yds o38.5-113

2 units each


Ray Davis 2td +1600
.25 units