I won't lie, I almost took it just to 'have the number'.
I figured at worst I would have a middle opportunity with a key number involved.
Week 7 B1G Thread...
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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I figured at worst I would have a middle opportunity with a key number involved.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Ya, I figured it would dip to 7 and below so figured there was a good opportunity here. I'm 1-3 when getting involved with michigan this year so I just really can't get it right. I need to reassess whether it actually pays for me to bet early openers.
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[B]Chris Fallica[/B]Verified account @[B]chrisfallica[/B]
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Since 2011 (101 games), just two teams have beaten Wisconsin by more than 10 points - 2014 Ohio State and 2015 Alabama. Both of those teams won national championships. Unless you think Michigan is national championship good, maybe think twice about laying 9.5.
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Since 2011 (101 games), just two teams have beaten Wisconsin by more than 10 points - 2014 Ohio State and 2015 Alabama. Both of those teams won national championships. Unless you think Michigan is national championship good, maybe think twice about laying 9.5.
There ya go @VirginiaCavs ... tell your bookie buddy to play Wisconsin +10... it has to be a virtual lock, right?
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
@B.A.R. I'm surprised you think the total is going to be so low. Michigan, if they're smart, will be able to move the ball through the air against Wisconsin. Wisconsin still has one of the most talented offensive lines in the country, and while they haven't played that consistently this year, they can definitely dominate, especially against the Michigan DL. Taylor will get his yards on the ground. Hornibrook will get some points on the board, just depends if it will be for Michigan or Wisconsin. Danny Davis back with the team helps on offense and Jake Ferguson at TE is turning into a weapon.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I think points can be had, especially if Michigan isn't too vanilla.
My only concern with the total is the amount of possessions. You have to be ultra efficient.
Wisky isn't breaking 24 points tomorrow, 21 tops. If Michigan was at full health I would put that at 14-17.
My only concern with the total is the amount of possessions. You have to be ultra efficient.
Wisky isn't breaking 24 points tomorrow, 21 tops. If Michigan was at full health I would put that at 14-17.
Have to put Michigan defense in context...#1 they've been at home for majority of their schedule...#2 these are the teams scoring offense ranks minus ND which was first game of season.
Western Michigan #38...however, WMU has played some pretty atrocious defenses.
SMU #77
Nebraska #114
Northwestern #104
Maryland #58..with no passing game whatsoever
Not a good barometer of success...jmo.
Western Michigan #38...however, WMU has played some pretty atrocious defenses.
SMU #77
Nebraska #114
Northwestern #104
Maryland #58..with no passing game whatsoever
Not a good barometer of success...jmo.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I'm really thinking we will see a lot more quicker possessions, with big plays, than you would normally see from these two teams (and any short fields will be a plus). Of course after I hit the over 20, it drops to 19.5
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I was going to make to make the same argument, but got lazy after seeing Notre Dame and Western Michigan rankings. Thanks for looking up the rest of them.
I also think Wisconsin was looking too much ahead to start the season. The Ciephus rape charges hung over the program (and still do somewhat as he sued the school earlier this week). But the West was/is pretty much put on a platter for them, and I think more than a few guys thought they could just show up and sleep walk through the schedule. The team will be ready for this one, and if not for the youth in the defensive backfield, I'd be a lot more confident.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Hornibrook is on the Davey O'Brien watch list for nations best QB though! But yeah, he's is such trash (no sarcasm there). He needs to step up in pocket and not be afraid to make a play on his own by pulling down the ball and running with the damn thing on occasion. Sick of seeing 3rd and 5, he has 10 yards of field wide open in front of him and he'll throw into triple coverage or out of bounds.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
But if they don't pick up any first downs, it's hard to burn too much clock. I don't see how Minnesota will stop Ohio St from putting up at least a half dozen TDs
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Just hit the +10. Have a +352 as top ML available right now, but will likely wait until later tonight on that. I'm just hoping I'm in a good enough mood/sober enough after the Brewer game tomorrow I don't get stupid with 2Hs if things aren't going well to start.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
The team total of over 45 on Ohio St is what's catching my eye right now. Any Big 10 teams have homecoming this week?
Looking at Wisconsin offensively.
They scored easily versus Nebraska, who yields 39.8 ppg
They scored somewhat easily after awhile against New Mexico who yields 34.0 ppg
They scored 14 and had trouble moving the ball much against BYU who gives up 29.0 ppg
They scored 21 true points at Iowa (not counting a pointless score) who gives up 17.2 ppg
In retrospect, their best output was vs Western Kentucky, who gives up 23.5 ppg
Now, that WKU game they started each half very slow.
Michigan gives up 15.8 ppg. Now, how much over that can we expect Wisconsin to go? A TD? More?
Obviously these stats all can be skewed in different ways due to opponents but the sample sizes are for a half a season at least.
Just something to chew on.
They scored easily versus Nebraska, who yields 39.8 ppg
They scored somewhat easily after awhile against New Mexico who yields 34.0 ppg
They scored 14 and had trouble moving the ball much against BYU who gives up 29.0 ppg
They scored 21 true points at Iowa (not counting a pointless score) who gives up 17.2 ppg
In retrospect, their best output was vs Western Kentucky, who gives up 23.5 ppg
Now, that WKU game they started each half very slow.
Michigan gives up 15.8 ppg. Now, how much over that can we expect Wisconsin to go? A TD? More?
Obviously these stats all can be skewed in different ways due to opponents but the sample sizes are for a half a season at least.
Just something to chew on.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I still don't understand what happened in that BYU game. Just can't explain that and wish I'd been distracted from 2H.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
If mich beats wisky and msu then there could be a lot of value with the psu matchup.
Well, BYU was undervalued early in the year...BIG TIME. That game was a gift.
Now, they look like hot garbage.
Very odd.
Pretty sure someone here will be top unit-esque on PSU in that game provided these teams both beat MSU.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Mcqueary posts at CTG? Wow.
You just never know the faces behind the names.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Good question. I'd probably want to look back at the GOY number as a baseline and adjust from there. Of course both teams performances this week will play a significant role as well.
If the line was posted TODAY I'm thinking something like mich -9.5.
I think that gives mich roughly the same rating as PSU.
Thank you.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Do you agree/disagree with that number?
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Welp, there ya go...PSU and mich are rated equally on a neutral.
I wouldn't be surprised at something like that.
Last Saturday night as I started pontificating this number the one that finally settled in my head that we might see is a 6.5
Hunt will disagree, but he can comment on the number he thinks it will be/should be.
Let me say again, I am saying what I see them putting it out as...not what I would value it.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
ranked teams favored at home off a bye are 91-62-4 ATS. If you set the parameters to “Top 25 teams that lost their previous game before the bye”, the record jumps to 22-10-2 ATS over the previous 34.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Homecoming at Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Penn St
First two are home dogs.
Was wondering the chances Purdue spent some time preparing for next week's home game vs Ohio State rather than fully on ILL?
I like your style
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
It's only the biggest game Brohm has ever coached in next week. Big bad Ohio State coming to West Lafayette next week and all this time off to be thinking about who is coming to town next week.
Part of me wants to like ILL just because of that. The other part of me remembers that ILL still isn't really that good.
Part of me wants to like ILL just because of that. The other part of me remembers that ILL still isn't really that good.
JumpOnBoard
CTG Partner
Thank god they made that osu game at west Lafayette a night game to at least half get the kids attention. A noon game up there in the high school is a 50/50 proposition at best.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
great question, just throwing out info i saw online somewhere today. i never follow stuff like that cuz when i was young and followed trends i always ended up on the losing side. just trust my eyes now. betting board, figured id throw it out there, guess its better than bringing up old bs constantly
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Why is NW only -3.5 against shitty Corn? Let down from road win at Sparty? Not that big a deal.
Will wait on PSU/MSU in game to see how first half transpires, would believe it will be close and PSU pulls away. Nevertheless, liking over 53. If MSU pass D as bad as everyone says, Trace will get his. MSU rush D really solid, but that doesn't mean they can contain #9 on drop backs when he decides to tuck and run. MSU had better luck throwing the ball all over the field last year vs PSU D, would think more of the same if they want to win. 53 seems short for any PSU game.
Took the bait on Wisky dick +10, bought half. I'll pay to see a party in AA on primetime and announce to the world we are back, though i don't think it will mean we are back. Any Wisconsin team the last 20 years is good enough to hang around any conference game as a DD dog.
Will wait on PSU/MSU in game to see how first half transpires, would believe it will be close and PSU pulls away. Nevertheless, liking over 53. If MSU pass D as bad as everyone says, Trace will get his. MSU rush D really solid, but that doesn't mean they can contain #9 on drop backs when he decides to tuck and run. MSU had better luck throwing the ball all over the field last year vs PSU D, would think more of the same if they want to win. 53 seems short for any PSU game.
Took the bait on Wisky dick +10, bought half. I'll pay to see a party in AA on primetime and announce to the world we are back, though i don't think it will mean we are back. Any Wisconsin team the last 20 years is good enough to hang around any conference game as a DD dog.
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
I'm all over Northwestern fwiw... could see some b.s. 1 or 2 point win for them as worst case, but don't see Nebraska winning
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I don’t disagree bout NW prob winnning and covering but think it a little strange you could see a 1-2 point victory but not see them losing. If it was that close wouldn’t it stand to reason it anyone’s game at the end?
