Week 6 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

Went 9-10-1 last week. Bad beginning, going 0-2 on Friday, including the ridiculous loss on Washington that had a 97% win expectancy but ended up being a blown cover. Then also a bad ending, as I blew the last 4, including the 3 late adds. Other than that it was 9-4-1, so there's reason for optimism, right? Right? Year-log total is 36-40-1. Work to do for sure.

Taking a pass on the weeknight games, which I think is a smart move after last week's debacle. Great games last week. I've heard a lot of chatter on what to make of that Bama/Georgia game, but here's my take. It proved the worth of both DeBoer and Smart as coaches. First of all, the fact that Bama came out with such precision and with such a good plan is all DeBoer, and it ended up winning them the game. You might say that as good as DeBoer was early, he and his staff were that bad late to allow that comeback, but I don't buy that at all. I don't care what you do or say as a coach, when you go up 28-0 and every damn thing on the face of the earth is going your way, it's human nature that you are going to play with less urgency and start looking at the clock rather than focusing on the kind of effort that got you there in the first place. Combine that with how good Georgia is, and a comeback almost seems inevitable. As I mentioned, Smart also proved his worth. His demeanor, his leadership and his ability to push the right buttons gave them the outlook and momentum that they needed to come back in that environment. That is the mark of dare I say a Hall Of Fame coach. On to the week.

Pitt -2.5 WIN
Louisville -6.5 LOSS
UMass +16 WIN
Penn State -28 LOSS
Missouri +2.5 LOSS
Army -12.5 WIN
Auburn +22.5 WIN
Ball State +10 WIN
UConn -17 LOSS
South Carolina +9 LOSS
Washington ML WIN
UCF ML LOSS
Duke +10 PUSH
Arizona State -2 WIN

7-6-1

1. Pittsburgh -2.5(-118) @North Carolina (BOL) : I'd be fine with 3, probably even more than that utimately, but BOL is offering 2.5 so I'll take it. I always look for reasons to play Pitt in the road favorite role since Narduzzi is 16-5 ATS in that role since he got there back in 2015. Clearly UNC is reeling. They cashed a ticket for me last week as a dog at Duke, but were up 20-0 and collapsed late after the ultimate embarrassment of the debacle against JMU. They had their bounce back from that, but unfortunately it was only limited to the first 40 minutes or so. How do they respond now? I'm skeptical that this team is capable of gathering up a strong effort after that, and I don't think they match up well with Pitt at all. The only thing they are reasonably good at on defense is stiffening up on 3rd down, but I think Pitt is going to move the ball all day on their defense. RB Desmond Reid has been great for Pitt, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and also hauling in 3TD receptions. . Pitt made an intelligent decision to sit him out last week against Youngstown State(73 points and 644 yads without him) since his workload has been heavy and he's a smallish back, so he'll be rested and ready to go this week. Eli Holstien can also throw it (23rd in yards per attempt) and UNC has not been able to stop anyone in the pass game this year(113th in pards per pass attempt allowed). UNC's major strength is running it with Omarion Hampton but that output has not been where they probably expect it to be. The Pitt defense ranks 16th against the run, so the collection of backups UNC has at QB are likely going to need to be very effective in the passing game to stay close in this one.


Any time you can withstand a Pick 6 and still win by DD it was a good play. Pitt really relies on that little RB Reid, but he got beat to a pulp again this week. He takes a beating. Hopefully he stays healthy for them. Holstein was pretty good other than that horrendous pick 6.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Sorry everyone. I wrote the first two of these last night and thought I had posted the thread but I guess not. Sorry for the delay.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. @Louisville -6.5(-115) v SMU(BOL) : This shapes up as a great spot for the Cards, who are coming off an effort in which they deserved better against Notre Dame, and they're matched up against an SMU team that has 2 misleading finals in a row. Last week the Mustangs beat FSU(Congrats!), but the score wasn't indicative of the scrimmaging that took place in that game, plus, Florida State sucks. For whatever reason, SMU still thought that was a major accomplishment, enough for them to be feeling themselves on social media, reportedly. Prior to that, they scored 66 points on less than 375 total yards against TCU in a game that was officiated so much in their favor that Sonny Dykes had to be escorted off the field prior to completion. The individual matchups favor Louisville and I think SMU is overdue for a stinker performance. Throw in the fact that Louisville is 16-7 as a home favorite since 21, and I'm a buyer.

I think I'm going to take a forced sabbatical from Louisville and Jeff Brohm. 4/12 on 3rd down and 2 times stopped on downs on 4th. Louisville could not stop SMU in any meaningful situation. SMU was definitely the right side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. UMass +16 @Northern Illinois (BR) : The Huskies had a tough loss last week as they completely dominated NC State's offense, but turnovers cost them the game. I guess they still have the MAC title to play for, but that was a deflating loss after dropping a game outright to Buffalo after their big win at Notre Dame. Had they won last week, they could point to 2 wins over big time schools and then still have a prayer at getting to the playoff if they swept the MAC. Now that's over, and it's just winning the MAC as a goal. This week isn't even a MAC game yet, as UMass makes the trek to DeKalb. This will be the fifth time U Mass has teed it up with a MAC squad. They've been a dog of this magnitude in two of them, Toledo and Miami, who can be described as the two top teams in the MAC over the past several years, and both of those were on the road. UMass acquitted themselves well in both games, outgaining Toledo 384-258 in a game they ultimately lost by 15 due to some horrific special teams breaks and then they took Miami to OT in a virtual statistical standstill. Now they face NIU in a very tough spot to get up in a role that NIU has been completely helpless in. The Huskies are 3-11 ATS with seven outright losses. As I've mentioned, it's an almost cosmic incompetence in this role. You can make a case that they should be an auto play regardless of opponent or spot, but I think the situation makes it a logical play as well. ON the field UMass has been more than competent on defense, and I think they'll be able to give NIU's offense some problems. It's a lot of points for a bad favorite to cover, so I'll take 'em here. Lost a chance at 17 which I'm not thrilled about but I'll take 16.

I included UMass in a money line round robin, and they were live there for awhile. Another failed cover at home for the Huskies. UMass put up more yards on that NIU defense than anyone else has this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. @Penn State -28(-115) v UCLA (BOL) : I played the extra juice here, but I would probably play this one up to 31 or so. I got a close look at Penn State last week and although they didn't cover against Illinois, they showed a lot of reasons as to why they'll probably cover here. First of all, they are both due. UCLA has covered two big spreads in a row and definitely should NOT have covered against Oregon last week. I don't want to get into it, it was a joke. Penn State didn't cover as a favorite last week, and 1 in a row is long for them(and Franklin, as we all know). I think the whole world is identifying this, but it's true. On the field, this is going to be a mismatch. Penn State swept every category by a country mile in my matchup matrix, and that's rarer than you would think. UCLA is atrocious in every category on offense, and although they are at least passable in yards per play and rush defense, they are almost dead last on 3rd down on that side of the ball and offer zero pass rush to make Allar at all uncomfortable. This is also a really bad spot for the Bruins. They've already traveled to Hawaii. Two weeks ago they went to baton Rouge, then came back for a late night game on Saturday against Oregon and now have to fly back across the country to the middle of nowhere and deal with these maniacs at 8AM on their body clocks. They are banged up on an offense that sucks to begin with, and this clown Tom Allen, the Fire Marshall Bill lookalike, is addicted to sending 6 or 7 guys on every snap. I can see 48-0 pretty easily here.

Well, it certainly wasn't 48-0. Penn State was pretty clearly holding things back. Franklin in danger of completely blowing his rep as a covering machine. Only 322 total yards for the Nits. No Singleton didn't help. This one never really threatened. The world was on PSU . Books cleaned up, I'm sure.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Missouri +2.5 @Texas A&M(BOL) : This is the only ranked v ranked matchup of the week, so it's deemed a "big game". It's the first road game for Missouri and it's a toughie...Kyle Field....The 12th Man...Crazy fanbase....brutal place to play....yeah, ok. A&M loses at home in big games like my neighbor's dog yaps spastically at 6:30 AM. That is to say, often. They are 3-11 at home when they're ranked and playing a top 10 team, which Missouri is here. Is Mizzou a deserved top 10 team? They haven't really given us much evidence they are, but it's still a big game by definition and the Aggies have been bad enough in these games to indicate it might be institutional, since that span of games goes all the way back to RC Slocum (Courtesy Chris Fallica). Missouri has not been explosive at all on offense, but they are capable, and this isn't the first time it's taken them awhile to get going offensively. The second half vs first half numbers on offense last year were very different, and the combination of Burden, Wiese and Cooper are still there. A&M is still very vanilla (at best) on offense. Mizzou has been reliable as a dog in recent years and their defense has been solid. I think Drinkwitz gets it done here.

I'd love to hear Drinkwitz's explanation for this one. What an embarrassment. Gutless performance, and although I'm sure Elko is establishing his culture, this A&M offense is not this good, especially under Weigman. 512-254 yard edge. Maybe they'll bounce back. but that was a weakling performance.

 

[Carolina Guy]

Went 9-10-1 last week. Bad beginning, going 0-2 on Friday, including the ridiculous loss on Washington that had a 97% win expectancy but ended up being a blown cover. Then also a bad ending, as I blew the last 4, including the 3 late adds. Other than that it was 9-4-1, so there's reason for optimism, right? Right? Year-log total is 36-40-1. Work to do for sure.

Taking a pass on the weeknight games, which I think is a smart move after last week's debacle. Great games last week. I've heard a lot of chatter on what to make of that Bama/Georgia game, but here's my take. It proved the worth of both DeBoer and Smart as coaches. First of all, the fact that Bama came out with such precision and with such a good plan is all DeBoer, and it ended up winning them the game. You might say that as good as DeBoer was early, he and his staff were that bad late to allow that comeback, but I don't buy that at all. I don't care what you do or say as a coach, when you go up 28-0 and every damn thing on the face of the earth is going your way, it's human nature that you are going to play with less urgency and start looking at the clock rather than focusing on the kind of effort that got you there in the first place. Combine that with how good Georgia is, and a comeback almost seems inevitable. As I mentioned, Smart also proved his worth. His demeanor, his leadership and his ability to push the right buttons gave them the outlook and momentum that they needed to come back in that environment. That is the mark of dare I say a Hall Of Fame coach. On to the week.

1. Pittsburgh -2.5(-118) @North Carolina (BOL) : I'd be fine with 3, probably even more than that utimately, but BOL is offering 2.5 so I'll take it. I always look for reasons to play Pitt in the road favorite role since Narduzzi is 16-5 ATS in that role since he got there back in 2015. Clearly UNC is reeling. They cashed a ticket for me last week as a dog at Duke, but were up 20-0 and collapsed late after the ultimate embarrassment of the debacle against JMU. They had their bounce back from that, but unfortunately it was only limited to the first 40 minutes or so. How do they respond now? I'm skeptical that this team is capable of gathering up a strong effort after that, and I don't think they match up well with Pitt at all. The only thing they are reasonably good at on defense is stiffening up on 3rd down, but I think Pitt is going to move the ball all day on their defense. RB Desmond Reid has been great for Pitt, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and also hauling in 3TD receptions. . Pitt made an intelligent decision to sit him out last week against Youngstown State(73 points and 644 yads without him) since his workload has been heavy and he's a smallish back, so he'll be rested and ready to go this week. Eli Holstien can also throw it (23rd in yards per attempt) and UNC has not been able to stop anyone in the pass game this year(113th in pards per pass attempt allowed). UNC's major strength is running it with Omarion Hampton but that output has not been where they probably expect it to be. The Pitt defense ranks 16th against the run, so the collection of backups UNC has at QB are likely going to need to be very effective in the passing game to stay close in this one.

UNC is done. Pitt might win by two plus TD's

 

[2daBank]

5. Missouri +2.5 @Texas A&M(BOL) : This is the only ranked v ranked matchup of the week, so it's deemed a "big game". It's the first road game for Missouri and it's a toughie...Kyle Field....The 12th Man...Crazy fanbase....brutal place to play....yeah, ok. A&M loses at home in big games like my neighbor's dog yaps spastically at 6:30 AM. That is to say, often. They are 3-11 at home when they're ranked and playing a top 10 team, which Missouri is here. Is Mizzou a deserved top 10 team? They haven't really given us much evidence they are, but it's still a big game by definition and the Aggies have been bad enough in these games to indicate it might be institutional, since that span of games goes all the way back to RC Slocum (Courtesy Chris Fallica). Missouri has not been explosive at all on offense, but they are capable, and this isn't the first time it's taken them awhile to get going offensively. The second half vs first half numbers on offense last year were very different, and the combination of Burden, Wiese and Cooper are still there. A&M is still very vanilla (at best) on offense. Mizzou has been reliable as a dog in recent years and their defense has been solid. I think Drinkwitz gets it done here.

This what I can’t stand about drinkwitz, he rarely unleashes the passing attack if they don’t have to, he so content playing conservatively it’s maddening! I think this a week he loosens the leash a bit, if he does I think burden and co will go off and don’t think Aggies offense capable of keeping up, the problem is it so hard to tell with this prick cause if the d keeping them in the game they often don’t utilize their greatest assets at wr nearly enough. Let’s hope he lets them eat this week!

 

[2daBank]

Went 9-10-1 last week. Bad beginning, going 0-2 on Friday, including the ridiculous loss on Washington that had a 97% win expectancy but ended up being a blown cover. Then also a bad ending, as I blew the last 4, including the 3 late adds. Other than that it was 9-4-1, so there's reason for optimism, right? Right? Year-log total is 36-40-1. Work to do for sure.

Taking a pass on the weeknight games, which I think is a smart move after last week's debacle. Great games last week. I've heard a lot of chatter on what to make of that Bama/Georgia game, but here's my take. It proved the worth of both DeBoer and Smart as coaches. First of all, the fact that Bama came out with such precision and with such a good plan is all DeBoer, and it ended up winning them the game. You might say that as good as DeBoer was early, he and his staff were that bad late to allow that comeback, but I don't buy that at all. I don't care what you do or say as a coach, when you go up 28-0 and every damn thing on the face of the earth is going your way, it's human nature that you are going to play with less urgency and start looking at the clock rather than focusing on the kind of effort that got you there in the first place. Combine that with how good Georgia is, and a comeback almost seems inevitable. As I mentioned, Smart also proved his worth. His demeanor, his leadership and his ability to push the right buttons gave them the outlook and momentum that they needed to come back in that environment. That is the mark of dare I say a Hall Of Fame coach. On to the week.

1. Pittsburgh -2.5(-118) @North Carolina (BOL) : I'd be fine with 3, probably even more than that utimately, but BOL is offering 2.5 so I'll take it. I always look for reasons to play Pitt in the road favorite role since Narduzzi is 16-5 ATS in that role since he got there back in 2015. Clearly UNC is reeling. They cashed a ticket for me last week as a dog at Duke, but were up 20-0 and collapsed late after the ultimate embarrassment of the debacle against JMU. They had their bounce back from that, but unfortunately it was only limited to the first 40 minutes or so. How do they respond now? I'm skeptical that this team is capable of gathering up a strong effort after that, and I don't think they match up well with Pitt at all. The only thing they are reasonably good at on defense is stiffening up on 3rd down, but I think Pitt is going to move the ball all day on their defense. RB Desmond Reid has been great for Pitt, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and also hauling in 3TD receptions. . Pitt made an intelligent decision to sit him out last week against Youngstown State(73 points and 644 yads without him) since his workload has been heavy and he's a smallish back, so he'll be rested and ready to go this week. Eli Holstien can also throw it (23rd in yards per attempt) and UNC has not been able to stop anyone in the pass game this year(113th in pards per pass attempt allowed). UNC's major strength is running it with Omarion Hampton but that output has not been where they probably expect it to be. The Pitt defense ranks 16th against the run, so the collection of backups UNC has at QB are likely going to need to be very effective in the passing game to stay close in this one.

Def think this a good matchup for Pitt, running the ball is not the way to beat that d. You can def throw it on them but heels qb bound to turn it over a few times. I’d think Holstein goes for 300+ on heels crappy pass d.

 

[sevenpointroaddog]

3. UMass +16 @Northern Illinois (BR) : The Huskies had a tough loss last week as they completely dominated NC State's offense, but turnovers cost them the game. I guess they still have the MAC title to play for, but that was a deflating loss after dropping a game outright to Buffalo after their big win at Notre Dame. Had they won last week, they could point to 2 wins over big time schools and then still have a prayer at getting to the playoff if they swept the MAC. Now that's over, and it's just winning the MAC as a goal. This week isn't even a MAC game yet, as UMass makes the trek to DeKalb. This will be the fifth time U Mass has teed it up with a MAC squad. They've been a dog of this magnitude in two of them, Toledo and Miami, who can be described as the two top teams in the MAC over the past several years, and both of those were on the road. UMass acquitted themselves well in both games, outgaining Toledo 384-258 in a game they ultimately lost by 15 due to some horrific special teams breaks and then they took Miami to OT in a virtual statistical standstill. Now they face NIU in a very tough spot to get up in a role that NIU has been completely helpless in. The Huskies are 3-11 ATS with seven outright losses. As I've mentioned, it's an almost cosmic incompetence in this role. You can make a case that they should be an auto play regardless of opponent or spot, but I think the situation makes it a logical play as well. ON the field UMass has been more than competent on defense, and I think they'll be able to give NIU's offense some problems. It's a lot of points for a bad favorite to cover, so I'll take 'em here. Lost a chance at 17 which I'm not thrilled about but I'll take 16.

Right on. The polar opposite performances for NIU under Hammock, depending on the situation, are so striking. You've been on this for a while- how predictable they are as home favorites (very bad) and road dogs (very good). It's been the same story this year. If they catch lightning in their home favorite bottle this week, we can, as you sometimes say, "tip our cap."

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Army -12.5 @Tulsa (BR) : I've been on Tulsa a few times this year and they've covered for me because they are usually a good road dog, but this team can't get out of it's own way at home, and it's been that way for awhile. The Hurricane is 0-5-1 as a home dog ATS and is 4-15 ATS at home overall since 2021. That's information in addition to the fundamental handicap that says Army will run over these guys. Army has played an admittedly weak schedule, but they have steamrolled everyone, including Rice and FAU who a lot of pundits had polite things to say about in the preseason. Maybe they're both bad because Army crushed their spirits early on? It's possible for all of Army's opponents so far this year because it hasn't been pretty for any of them. Army is outgaining their foes by 185 yards per game and is piling up 370 yards per game on the ground. If necessary, Bryson Daily will throw it, and he's averaging 10 yards per attempt when he does. Tulsa is struggling mightily to throw the ball effectively, but they've been passable in the run game. They probably won't be passable against the Knights, though because they've given up a total of 88 yards against the 3 American conference teams they've played this year. Defensively, Tulsa is 114th in overall yards per play against while Army checks in at 17th on the offensive side, and that's despite running the ball on 88% of their snaps. I'm never a big fan of service academy favorites, but in this case, Tulsa has worse trends than even the weakest MA squads.

Both Army and Navy are juggernauts. They both play ND, but who's to say they can't beat the Irish? Other than that, the American schedule is rife with patsies with a few exceptions. They both are threats to win 10. Bryson Daily just ran over people all day.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Auburn +22.5 @Georgia (BR) : I thought about writing this one up earlier in the week when it was over 24, but it didn't look like there was a lot of risk that this would float down toward 21, but apparently a service has released this play so now it's moving down. I found 22.5 but that's not much of a number either. Having said all of that, this is still(at over 21) a value play in my opinion. I've sworn off Auburn in situations in which they have to win the game to cover, but they are scrimmaging by far well enough to take them getting this many points from anyone. Last week was the best example of that as Auburn put up 482 yards against an extremely tough Oklahoma offense. They have 3 receivers in KeAndre Lambert Smith, Marcus Simmons and Cam Coleman who are making explosive plays regularly and they have Jarquez Hunter in the backfield who has been doing consistently good work for more than 2 years now. Payton Thorne has also been more than fine on the vast majority of his throws, he's just been very bad on some excruciatingly untimely plays.On the other side, Georgia is coming off a mammoth game in which they had to come back from 28 points down only to lose late to Alabama. They are obviously very talented and well coached, but a perusal of their season long stats don't really make you stand up and take notice. There is no single category in which Georgia ranks better than 29th in the country. They're 69th in yards per carry on offense. They're 106th on 3rd down. They're 50th or lower on defense in yards per carry against, yards per pass play against, 3rd down conversions and sack rate. They've played a very good schedule, but those numbers are not elite. I certainly don't expect Auburn to win this game, or any game really considering what they've done to lose games already, but I think it's a lot to ask for Georgia to come out and completely destroy Auburn after the game they just played.

Auburn hung with them There was value in that number, and it turned out to be more than enough.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. @Ball State +10(-112) v Western Michigan (BOL) : It's my opinion that anyone who thinks they know much about teams from the MAC are misguided. What I believe we have here are two middling teams in the MAC. Both teams are coached by guys who seem to be competent. Both have been cast as cannon fodder in the early weeks of the season for high level power 4 teams so their statistical profiles both look horrific. In fact, both teams have only 1 meaningful category in which they rank better than 100th in the country. The biggest reason that we're seeing WMU installed as a 9.5 and now 10 point favorite in this game is probably that Ball State was curb stomped 63-7 last week by the ultimate juggernaut, the James Madison Dukes. Can you blame them, considering the heater the Dukes are currently on? Both of these teams do have some sample size of playing teams more in their weight class. WMU played at a pretty bad Marshall team last week and should have covered but blew it for me, losing by 7. Ball State has already played a MAC game, dueling Central Michigan to the wire, losing by a FG 37-34 up in Mt Pleasant. Is there much difference between CMU and WMU? Maybe, but probably not much. I don't think there's much evidence that WMU should be favored to win by margin on the road in a game like this. I don't care much for Cardinal QB Kadin Semanza, but Hayden Wolff for WMU isn't going to lead anyone to the promised land either. This looks like two collections of relatively untalented try hard guys that will probably play a tight game in front of friends and family in Muncie. I'll take the 10.

Neither team could get a stop. This went pretty much how I described it here. Two pretty evenly matched teams.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @UConn -17 v Temple (BR) : My biggest regret from last week was seeing the edges that UConn had against Buffalo and then passing because I thought Pete Lambo was a pretty competent guy. Well, since UConn has now bludgeoned 3 consecutive unfortunate souls in East Hartford, we are now paying a 17 point premium to back them this week. Despite that, I still don't think it's high enough. They are outgaining their opponents by 325 yards at home, and now Temple, who is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 as a road dog, comes in. The Owls haven't been as bad as you might think this year, but UConn has major advantages on both sides of the ball, and I think UConn might look better than they have throwing the ball because it looks like starter Nick Evers might not be playing due to injury which would open things up for backup Joe Fagnano(12 yards per attempt), who is a much more accomplished passer than Evers. UConn will certainly be able to run the ball on the Owls, and Fagnano should have no issues finding his two Big Ten transfer targets Skyler Bell and TJ Sheffield. UConn has been covering by more than 21 points per game, and I see no reason that they can't beat the feathers off the Owls.

Did not see this one coming. Kudos to Temple. They have no redeeming qualities and they found a way to hang with a team that is much better than them.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. @South Carolina +9 v Ole Miss (BR) : My goodness, was I on the wrong side of Ole Miss last week. Their first contact with a competent defense(That's an understatement with Kentucky) did not go well to say the least. Jaxson Dart was harassed all day and didn't adjust well to it and the Rebels dropped their first of the year. I think the chances of that happening again are certainly eminently possible because South Carolina has a front 7 that is in the same league with Kentucky at worst. The question is: "Is that enough". It's a fair question because Ole Miss's defense has been great, even in the game they lost. South Carolina will probably get LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders healthy for this game, but I anticipate a defense from Ole Miss that will be living in their backfield, so I don't hold out hope for any sustained long drives for the Gamecocks. However, I think there's some legs to the Kiffin to Florida rumors, and the Ole Miss response late last year when there were Auburn rumors was not good. If the energy is similar to last year, the Rebs could be in trouble again because Beamer has demonstrated many times that South Carolina can pull off upsets at home. They've done it to better teams. Ole Miss will have to have an A performance to win this one by a large margin in my opinion, and I don't know that they can offer that.

I liked both South Carolina and Arkansas as dogs this week. Obviously, I've been pro Arkansas because I've been on them every week they've been a dog, but ultimately decided on just South Carolina rather than just Arkansas or both. South Carolina looked good at the outset, but their offense was at a level that any bad breaks would torpedo them, and they got some bad breaks. They were never really in it. Defense played hard and I still think they are good, but it wasn't their day.

 

[Br@ssknux]

More tomorrow AM.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great looking card!

 

[2daBank]

This what I can’t stand about drinkwitz, he rarely unleashes the passing attack if they don’t have to, he so content playing conservatively it’s maddening! I think this a week he loosens the leash a bit, if he does I think burden and co will go off and don’t think Aggies offense capable of keeping up, the problem is it so hard to tell with this prick cause if the d keeping them in the game they often don’t utilize their greatest assets at wr nearly enough. Let’s hope he lets them eat this week!

To expand on this a bit I have heard ppl say the mizzou oc Kirby Moore been known to hold back the playbook when facing lessor teams, they did it last year not really unleashing the passing attack until they faced k-st, I sure hope that what been going on this season seeing how burden who a 1st round pick isn’t even the leading receiver this year. This is the time cause I think Aggies weak spot is their secondary, coming off the bye seems like a perfect storm. Cook passing prop is worth a look at 225, burden always in play but they not giving much a break on his number.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @Washington ML(-125) v Michigan (BOL : When you can get a money line at -125 or below on a short spread like this, it just makes sense to take it to leave out any 2 point conversion shenanigans or whatever. I think a lot has been said and written about last week's game, but as far as teams having a delta between their actual down to down performance on the field and their record, I don't think you'd find a team with a bigger one than Washington. I still am left shaking my head that they lost last week at Rutgers. I've seen post game win expectancies as high as 97%, but missed field goals, being stopped on downs inside the 5, penalties, etc did them in. That was the kind f thing that thwarted them in their other loss to Washington State as well. The rank favorably in virtually every category on both sides of the ball, they've just been pretty unlucky so far this year. Now they have Michigan coming to Seattle for the Wolverines first road game of the year. I am sure Michigan will get an effort from this Husky team worthy of Michigan teams of the past, but this Michigan team, at least offensively, is nothing like those previous Michigan teams. If you take away the Arkansas State game(which they failed to cover), they are averaging less then 300 yards a game, and everyone in the country knows they can't throw the ball with Alex Orji back there. Washington's defense is ranked 9th in yards per play against, so this won't be a pushover defense to just hand it off and run it. Offensively, Washington has been one of the better teams in the country, and Fisch's offense is balanced. Jonah Coleman was never stopped against Rutgers and he's been one of the more effective runners in the country, piling up 7.2 yards per carry. There's no denying that Michigan's defense is very good, but they've given up at least 22 completions and 220 yards passing to everyone on their schedule. Will Rogers isa t over 9 yards per attempt, completes 74% of his passes and has a 10/0 ratio, so I think Fisch will be able to scheme up some passes away from Will Johnson, and they'll see some success. It should be a great atmosphere in Seattle, and I think Washington is due for some luck against a Michigan team that has it's share of warts.

If Jack Tuttle would have led Michigan back to a win after being down 14-0 I would have thrown my remote through the TV. Thankfully the Huskies did what was necessary to win this one. 429-287 yard edge. This was the right side.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. UCF ML -118 @Florida (BOL) : UCF is coming off what has to be one of the most disappointing games they've played since Mahlzahn has been there. They were thoroughly beaten at home by Colorado has 2 TD favorites, and I'm sure they've heard about it because there are a lot of college football people that root hard against Coach Prime, so they let lot of people down last week. The good news for them is that they have a great opportunity staring them in the face this week: A chance to go to in state Big Brother and redeem themselves by beating the Gators. Usually, that would be a tough proposition, but not when you're facing that defense. We have a reasonable spread here because of recency bias and a consideration that Florida has a good offense, which might be partly true, but most of that suggestion is built on performances against Mercer or Samford or whoever it was and Mississippi State, who has one of the few defenses worse than Florida's. UCF's defense has been a disappointment, and I still can't figure out how that defensive line has been so bad, but I will be stunned if they don't completely have their way with this Florida defense, unless Napier and his staff have conjured up some sort of schematic miracle in the bye week. UCF has massive advantages in the run game and especially the pass game if Malzahn even cares to use it. UCF is 7th on 3rd down and Florida is 118th. They can't rush the passer, they can't cover, and I certainly don't think they can stop Malzahn's tricky rushing attack with Harvey Boone and Jefferson. Florida might have some offensive success, but I don't think it'll be enough to beat a pissed off UCF squad who has a lot to prove and a great venue to do it after falling on their face last week.

What a great response by the Knights, huh? 13 points against that defense. 273 total yards? Everything was an embarrassment for UCF, including those 6th grade practice uniforms they were. Just come out in blue jeans and mismatched jerseys next time.

 

[Br@ssknux]

13. Duke +10(-112) @Georgia Tech (BOL) : I realize that Duke is living on borrowed time being undefeated and they are certainly ripe to get handled by a team better than what they've faced so far, but Georgia Tech as a home favorite is not that team. You can make a case that the Yellowjackets have probably played better than their record, but they are not at all in their element at home when they are expected to win. They are an underdog team, and it's not good practice to back those teams in the wrong situation. GT is 4-10, and they would be 3-11 in that role since 2019 if they wouldn't have had a miracle cover against Georgia State earlier this year. Duke has been fortunate and has snuck by a couple questionable teams in MTSU and Northwestern, but they got the road wins and also made a nice comeback from a 20-0 deficit last week and they also beat UConn and outgained them by 100 yards a few weeks ago, which is looking like a really solid win in retrospect. I like GT and think they have a good offense, but Maalik Murohy has been alright so far and they've played solid defense. 10 just seems like too much for me here, so I'll take it.

Can't complain about this other than to say Duke missed a makable field goal late that would have covered and led the game 14-10 into the 4th quarter. They were pretty thoroughly outgained though (412-279).

 

[Br@ssknux]

Still debating adding a couple late ones. Will make that decision soon.

 

[Frank Costanza]

4. @Penn State -28(-115) v UCLA (BOL) : I played the extra juice here, but I would probably play this one up to 31 or so. I got a close look at Penn State last week and although they didn't cover against Illinois, they showed a lot of reasons as to why they'll probably cover here. First of all, they are both due. UCLA has covered two big spreads in a row and definitely should NOT have covered against Oregon last week. I don't want to get into it, it was a joke. Penn State didn't cover as a favorite last week, and 1 in a row is long for them(and Franklin, as we all know). I think the whole world is identifying this, but it's true. On the field, this is going to be a mismatch. Penn State swept every category by a country mile in my matchup matrix, and that's rarer than you would think. UCLA is atrocious in every category on offense, and although they are at least passable in yards per play and rush defense, they are almost dead last on 3rd down on that side of the ball and offer zero pass rush to make Allar at all uncomfortable. This is also a really bad spot for the Bruins. They've already traveled to Hawaii. Two weeks ago they went to baton Rouge, then came back for a late night game on Saturday against Oregon and now have to fly back across the country to the middle of nowhere and deal with these maniacs at 8AM on their body clocks. They are banged up on an offense that sucks to begin with, and this clown Tom Allen, the Fire Marshall Bill lookalike, is addicted to sending 6 or 7 guys on every snap. I can see 48-0 pretty easily here.

Yeah. Added to my existing play this morning. 45-10 written all over it.

Garbers out today as well.

 

[B.A.R.]

Appreciate the top notch content as always!

 

[Br@ssknux]

14. Arizona State -2(-115) v Kansas (BOL) : If this is the week Kansas finally figures things out, I'll give them my money. The entire season has been a disaster for Jalon Daniels, and unfortunately, Leipold has nowhere to go because Jason Bean isn't sitting there in the backup role. Daniels is the 122nd graded QB in PFF, right between Jake Garcia and Brayden Locke. KU can run it pretty well, but they'll be up against a pretty good rush defense in the Sun Devils(8th) and the 12th ranked overall defense in yards per play against. ASU is also a very tricky offense to play against. Cam Skattebo has been shut down recently, but they are coming off a bye and Kenny Dillingham has had a chance to regroup. QB Sam Leavitt has been a very nice surprise, as he is a skilled runner and a surprisingly better passer than expected. The Sun Devils have been very tough to deal with at home, and with the way Kansas has been finding ways to lose, a short line like this is enticing. Money line at north of 130 is a bit rich so I'll stick with the spread.

ASU played pretty piss poor defense in this one, but the black cloud remains over Kansas, which was a big reason for the play in the first place. If some of these teams on a horrendous luck streak need to win to cover, it pays to continue fading them.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Appreciate the top notch content as always!

Thanks BAR as always. Need some of these to come in.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I think that's gonna be it for the week. 14 total this week. Had some also rans, but decided against.

Liked Cal, just a little afraid of a front door for Miami because that offense is explosive. 10 just not enough. having said that, I hope they win outright.

Also thought Texas Tech might be in a good spot catching AZ after that surprising win, but they go for it on 4th so often that I didn't want to get burned by "stopped on downs at the 6" 4-5 times.

Had a feeling about baylor but not a strong enough one. Best of luck the rest of the day to everyone.

 

[2daBank]

14. Arizona State -2(-115) v Kansas (BOL) : If this is the week Kansas finally figures things out, I'll give them my money. The entire season has been a disaster for Jalon Daniels, and unfortunately, Leipold has nowhere to go because Jason Bean isn't sitting there in the backup role. Daniels is the 122nd graded QB in PFF, right between Jake Garcia and Brayden Locke. KU can run it pretty well, but they'll be up against a pretty good rush defense in the Sun Devils(8th) and the 12th ranked overall defense in yards per play against. ASU is also a very tricky offense to play against. Cam Skattebo has been shut down recently, but they are coming off a bye and Kenny Dillingham has had a chance to regroup. QB Sam Leavitt has been a very nice surprise, as he is a skilled runner and a surprisingly better passer than expected. The Sun Devils have been very tough to deal with at home, and with the way Kansas has been finding ways to lose, a short line like this is enticing. Money line at north of 130 is a bit rich so I'll stick with the spread.

We have more on same page this week, was just looking at this game, I was initially looking at leavitt props but decided I wasn’t sure if ASU have more success throwing or running, then ya look at my pretty one dimensional attack and sure feels like asu d will be able to keep them in check.

 

[2daBank]

13. Duke +10(-112) @Georgia Tech (BOL) : I realize that Duke is living on borrowed time being undefeated and they are certainly ripe to get handled by a team better than what they've faced so far, but Georgia Tech as a home favorite is not that team. You can make a case that the Yellowjackets have probably played better than their record, but they are not at all in their element at home when they are expected to win. They are an underdog team, and it's not good practice to back those teams in the wrong situation. GT is 4-10, and they would be 3-11 in that role since 2019 if they wouldn't have had a miracle cover against Georgia State earlier this year. Duke has been fortunate and has snuck by a couple questionable teams in MTSU and Northwestern, but they got the road wins and also made a nice comeback from a 20-0 deficit last week and they also beat UConn and outgained them by 100 yards a few weeks ago, which is looking like a really solid win in retrospect. I like GT and think they have a good offense, but Maalik Murohy has been alright so far and they've played solid defense. 10 just seems like too much for me here, so I'll take it.

This total feels low to me, 52.5? Think this easily the best offense Duke has faced, not sure I see them stopping all the things gtech can do, but I do Agree I think Duke can stay in the game which I think will take 23/24 points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Had some regrets in hindsight, but eeked out a 7-6-1 day. It's basically break even but it could have been worse. Look on the bright side!

 

[Br@ssknux]

Adding recaps to the posts with plays in them. Thanks to everyone for contributing.

 

[M.W.]

13. Duke +10(-112) @Georgia Tech (BOL) : I realize that Duke is living on borrowed time being undefeated and they are certainly ripe to get handled by a team better than what they've faced so far, but Georgia Tech as a home favorite is not that team. You can make a case that the Yellowjackets have probably played better than their record, but they are not at all in their element at home when they are expected to win. They are an underdog team, and it's not good practice to back those teams in the wrong situation. GT is 4-10, and they would be 3-11 in that role since 2019 if they wouldn't have had a miracle cover against Georgia State earlier this year. Duke has been fortunate and has snuck by a couple questionable teams in MTSU and Northwestern, but they got the road wins and also made a nice comeback from a 20-0 deficit last week and they also beat UConn and outgained them by 100 yards a few weeks ago, which is looking like a really solid win in retrospect. I like GT and think they have a good offense, but Maalik Murohy has been alright so far and they've played solid defense. 10 just seems like too much for me here, so I'll take it.

Can't complain about this other than to say Duke missed a makable field goal late that would have covered and led the game 14-10 into the 4th quarter. They were pretty thoroughly outgained though (412-279).

Tech is an underdog team (12-4 ATS under Key) but even more of a team-off-a-loss team (9-2-1 ATS and 11-0 SU under Key). Also, Duke never covers off a win or close loss vs. UNC. Fade is 8-0-1 (by an avg of 13.1 points) going all the way back to Spurrier's tenure at Duke.

 

[M.W.]

12. UCF ML -118 @Florida (BOL) : UCF is coming off what has to be one of the most disappointing games they've played since Mahlzahn has been there. They were thoroughly beaten at home by Colorado has 2 TD favorites, and I'm sure they've heard about it because there are a lot of college football people that root hard against Coach Prime, so they let lot of people down last week. The good news for them is that they have a great opportunity staring them in the face this week: A chance to go to in state Big Brother and redeem themselves by beating the Gators. Usually, that would be a tough proposition, but not when you're facing that defense. We have a reasonable spread here because of recency bias and a consideration that Florida has a good offense, which might be partly true, but most of that suggestion is built on performances against Mercer or Samford or whoever it was and Mississippi State, who has one of the few defenses worse than Florida's. UCF's defense has been a disappointment, and I still can't figure out how that defensive line has been so bad, but I will be stunned if they don't completely have their way with this Florida defense, unless Napier and his staff have conjured up some sort of schematic miracle in the bye week. UCF has massive advantages in the run game and especially the pass game if Malzahn even cares to use it. UCF is 7th on 3rd down and Florida is 118th. They can't rush the passer, they can't cover, and I certainly don't think they can stop Malzahn's tricky rushing attack with Harvey Boone and Jefferson. Florida might have some offensive success, but I don't think it'll be enough to beat a pissed off UCF squad who has a lot to prove and a great venue to do it after falling on their face last week.

What a great response by the Knights, huh? 13 points against that defense. 273 total yards? Everything was an embarrassment for UCF, including those 6th grade practice uniforms they were. Just come out in blue jeans and mismatched jerseys next time.

Had a small play on UCF myself. Wow.

 

[M.W.]

Well, it certainly wasn't 48-0. Penn State was pretty clearly holding things back. Franklin in danger of completely blowing his rep as a covering machine. Only 322 total yards for the Nits. No Singleton didn't help. This one never really threatened. The world was on PSU . Books cleaned up, I'm sure.

This was a situation in which he has consistently covered when laying 17 or fewer (12-0 ATS by an average of 17 points!) and consistently failed to cover when laying 18+ (now 0-4-1 and -8.8 points per game against the spread).