Week 6 SEC Discussion
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twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
MOT like anyone in The Swamp? If FLa o line is as banged up as they say....they could have some issues with LSU..big time.
I know LSU has some bumps on that side too, but nothing like what they seem to have.
I am glad Etling has a Jordan Haire 6:30 pm start under his belt...that should make an 11am at the swamp a bit easier.
I think FLA D has a rebound here and they should be up for this one....I think LSU is too.
GL this week to all
I know LSU has some bumps on that side too, but nothing like what they seem to have.
I am glad Etling has a Jordan Haire 6:30 pm start under his belt...that should make an 11am at the swamp a bit easier.
I think FLA D has a rebound here and they should be up for this one....I think LSU is too.
GL this week to all
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thanks for posting your #'s MOT. Here are yours, gps, mine:
Arkansas +7.5/+9.5/+16.5
Florida +1.5/-1.5/Pick
Kentucky -1/+2/-2.5
State -4.5/-2.5/Pick
South Carolina +11.5/+9.5/+4.5
A&M -2/-9/-10
Looks like the biggest discrepancies between us are on Bama/Arky, UGA/USCe and aTm/Tenny
Based purely on PR variance we should all 3 be on UF and Miss St. I have a Miss St PICK GOY ticket when I thought Miss St was gonna be good and I'm not super thrilled with it. None of my bets this weekend in conference are going to be fun or easy to watch
Arkansas +7.5/+9.5/+16.5
Florida +1.5/-1.5/Pick
Kentucky -1/+2/-2.5
State -4.5/-2.5/Pick
South Carolina +11.5/+9.5/+4.5
A&M -2/-9/-10
Looks like the biggest discrepancies between us are on Bama/Arky, UGA/USCe and aTm/Tenny
Based purely on PR variance we should all 3 be on UF and Miss St. I have a Miss St PICK GOY ticket when I thought Miss St was gonna be good and I'm not super thrilled with it. None of my bets this weekend in conference are going to be fun or easy to watch
Just locked in a 5 team SEC 7pt teaser. +300 (Bookmaker)
What do you think?
Jorga Pk
aTm Pk
Vandy +10
Messy +10
Gators +10
Also, I feel the loser of Vandy/ UK should end football season and just go on to basketball.
Another stat I heard on that radio today that made me say HUH?
Vandy is ranked 1st in Red Zone Scoring Offense in the NATION. YES NATION. 17-17 100%
VAndy D is ranked 11th in Red zone Defense. Just amazing to me
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/703
What do you think?
Jorga Pk
aTm Pk
Vandy +10
Messy +10
Gators +10
Also, I feel the loser of Vandy/ UK should end football season and just go on to basketball.
Another stat I heard on that radio today that made me say HUH?
Vandy is ranked 1st in Red Zone Scoring Offense in the NATION. YES NATION. 17-17 100%
VAndy D is ranked 11th in Red zone Defense. Just amazing to me
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/703
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CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I won't bet UF. I made it pick but would prob agree with LSU being the favorite but couldnt quite bring myself to do it. I thought MOT had UF as the fav but after looking back I mis-read that - I was thinking we were all 3-4.5 off the LSU line of -3. I dont necessarily have a set number I look for in variance because I feel a lot stronger about my read on some games than others.
I am fine with the Bama line of -14. I kinda regret not betting Under 51 at open on that one. Spread and total reflect a 31.5 -17.5 game - I think Arky U17.5 is my preferred bet on the game if I can get that
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thoughts on Vandy/Cats:
Last year Vandy was -3.5 at home and won 21-17 with a total of 41.5. There were a total of 25 first downs, 653 yards offense on 139 plays. The QB performances were about as poor as I expect them to be in this game - Towles was 10/26 for 67 yards with a pick and 3.9 QBR before Barker took over and went 5/8 for 60 with a TD and pick. Shurmur was 13/26 for 166 with 2 TD. Williams had 115 on 13 carries with a long of 66 and UK ran for 225 at 6.1 ypc. Webb and co were stifled most of the day with a long run of 16, total of 135 at 3.2 ypc. Vandy made a couple goal line stands to ultimately win it. Vandy had a pick 6 and a 4 yard TD drive.
I don't know that I can think of many teams that have shown the level of improvement that Kentucky has on the defensive side of the ball the past couple weeks. They give up 44 points to USM in the opener and 5.48 ypp, 45 points at UF at 6.56 ypp, 42 points to Mew Mexico State at 6.25 ypp and then the past two weeks they hold USCe to 10 at 3.97 ypp and Bama to 34 on 6.13. I doubt many people outside of Bama and UK fans watched the game last week but I feel like those stats even lie just a little bit from an eye test standpoint - I thought Kentucky defended Alabama really well - Bama scored on a 55 yard fumble recovery - and help up pretty well early until they gassed later in the game and the gulf in athleticism reared its' head. Kentucky also has changed QB for pretty much the entirety of the past 3 games and against the past two conf foes their ypp has fallen drastically - 4.86 and 17 points against USCe and 2.48 and 6 points against Alabama. So I think there is a combination of multiple things here - one being the QB change and two being they have just shown nice improvement on the other side of the ball. Vandy has continued to underwhelm on offense - last week scoring 6 giving up just 3.68 ypp. Another kinda astonishing thing about the game last week was the disparity in field position - UF avg 33.8 and Vandy on the 16.8. Statistically, in a vacuum, that is the recipe in itself to get blown out but they managed to keep it a 1 score game albeit fortunate when UF muffed a snap on a the 1 while trying to sneak it in. The Vandy offense continues to rely on Webb and get poor QB play from Shurmur. Shurmur actually sustained an eye injury in the 4Q of that game and will be playing with a protective shield on his facemask for the first time in his career. Shurmur has played in 6 career SEC games and has never been better than 50% passing - this year he is 8-25 and 9-22 against Carolina and Florida. Through the air is where I saw vulnerability in the UK defense last week as Calvin Ridley couldn't be contained - that is not an area where I think Vandy can exploit them. The Vandy defense held up really well last week which has actually been more rare than I would have expected at face value when looking back at a string of really bad defensive performances dating back to the end of last season. I think part of that has to do to the fact that they are so out-athleted in the majority of conference games and I think this is a rare instance where they won't be. This should be a below average paced game with with the likelihood of there being something like 90 run plays to 40 pass plays and hopefully about 15 punts. Another nice thing about Vandy unders is that Mason has showed himself to be one of the most conservative playcallers and decision makers late in games as evidenced by him almost inexplicably punting at the end of the UF game. 24-20
Last year Vandy was -3.5 at home and won 21-17 with a total of 41.5. There were a total of 25 first downs, 653 yards offense on 139 plays. The QB performances were about as poor as I expect them to be in this game - Towles was 10/26 for 67 yards with a pick and 3.9 QBR before Barker took over and went 5/8 for 60 with a TD and pick. Shurmur was 13/26 for 166 with 2 TD. Williams had 115 on 13 carries with a long of 66 and UK ran for 225 at 6.1 ypc. Webb and co were stifled most of the day with a long run of 16, total of 135 at 3.2 ypc. Vandy made a couple goal line stands to ultimately win it. Vandy had a pick 6 and a 4 yard TD drive.
I don't know that I can think of many teams that have shown the level of improvement that Kentucky has on the defensive side of the ball the past couple weeks. They give up 44 points to USM in the opener and 5.48 ypp, 45 points at UF at 6.56 ypp, 42 points to Mew Mexico State at 6.25 ypp and then the past two weeks they hold USCe to 10 at 3.97 ypp and Bama to 34 on 6.13. I doubt many people outside of Bama and UK fans watched the game last week but I feel like those stats even lie just a little bit from an eye test standpoint - I thought Kentucky defended Alabama really well - Bama scored on a 55 yard fumble recovery - and help up pretty well early until they gassed later in the game and the gulf in athleticism reared its' head. Kentucky also has changed QB for pretty much the entirety of the past 3 games and against the past two conf foes their ypp has fallen drastically - 4.86 and 17 points against USCe and 2.48 and 6 points against Alabama. So I think there is a combination of multiple things here - one being the QB change and two being they have just shown nice improvement on the other side of the ball. Vandy has continued to underwhelm on offense - last week scoring 6 giving up just 3.68 ypp. Another kinda astonishing thing about the game last week was the disparity in field position - UF avg 33.8 and Vandy on the 16.8. Statistically, in a vacuum, that is the recipe in itself to get blown out but they managed to keep it a 1 score game albeit fortunate when UF muffed a snap on a the 1 while trying to sneak it in. The Vandy offense continues to rely on Webb and get poor QB play from Shurmur. Shurmur actually sustained an eye injury in the 4Q of that game and will be playing with a protective shield on his facemask for the first time in his career. Shurmur has played in 6 career SEC games and has never been better than 50% passing - this year he is 8-25 and 9-22 against Carolina and Florida. Through the air is where I saw vulnerability in the UK defense last week as Calvin Ridley couldn't be contained - that is not an area where I think Vandy can exploit them. The Vandy defense held up really well last week which has actually been more rare than I would have expected at face value when looking back at a string of really bad defensive performances dating back to the end of last season. I think part of that has to do to the fact that they are so out-athleted in the majority of conference games and I think this is a rare instance where they won't be. This should be a below average paced game with with the likelihood of there being something like 90 run plays to 40 pass plays and hopefully about 15 punts. Another nice thing about Vandy unders is that Mason has showed himself to be one of the most conservative playcallers and decision makers late in games as evidenced by him almost inexplicably punting at the end of the UF game. 24-20
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
LB Reeves Maybin ruled out for game for second straight week. Good news for Ags. As for other LB:
“Darrin Kirkland is day-to-day,” Jones said.
“We’ll know a little bit more (later in the week). He practiced yesterday. We have to make sure that he’s game ready. With all the different cutting and linebacker movements that it takes, obviously this game is a challenge in-and-of itself because of the different formations and personnel groupings that they give you. I’ll know a little bit more later in the week, but it’s been great to have him out there.”
Hurd is day to day
“Darrin Kirkland is day-to-day,” Jones said.
“We’ll know a little bit more (later in the week). He practiced yesterday. We have to make sure that he’s game ready. With all the different cutting and linebacker movements that it takes, obviously this game is a challenge in-and-of itself because of the different formations and personnel groupings that they give you. I’ll know a little bit more later in the week, but it’s been great to have him out there.”
Hurd is day to day
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Tigers interim coach Ed Orgeron said Wednesday that Fournette has yet to practice this week while recovering from an ankle injury that also sidelined him for last week’s game.
“It doesn’t look like Leonard is going to play,” Orgeron said. “He hasn’t practiced yet.”
As someone rooting for points to be scored I'm not mad about that. He clearly hasn't been himself this year and I really like Guice. He would be the clear starter for at least 100 other teams and showed great vision and burst last week.
“It doesn’t look like Leonard is going to play,” Orgeron said. “He hasn’t practiced yet.”
As someone rooting for points to be scored I'm not mad about that. He clearly hasn't been himself this year and I really like Guice. He would be the clear starter for at least 100 other teams and showed great vision and burst last week.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
LDR looks good to go at this point for the Gators. Other news:
Florida’s defensive line, which played almost exclusively backups at Vanderbilt due to injuries, is likely to do something similar against the Tigers. Tackle Joey Ivie remains out, as was expected after sustaining a thumb injury expected to keep him out for a month, but end Jordan Sherit, who missed the Vanderbilt game, will get “scoped” — have arthroscopic surgery — and be out for “a little while,” per McElwain, while tackle Caleb Brantley is both “sick” and has a thumb injury, and end Bryan Cox, Jr. is hurt, but McElwain refused to say he would be out.
Brantley and Cox both played against Vanderbilt, with Cox doing so more sparingly, and it would be a bad bet that either or both won’t suit up against LSU, but the Gators’ defensive line behind its starters is largely unproven, though CeCe Jefferson — now “Carl” in McElwainese — drew praise Monday.
Elsewhere, Florida’s dealing with dings and nicks: Wide receiver and special teams gunner Chris Thompson re-aggravated a nagging hamstring injury, wideout Brandon Powell tweaked his ankle, offensive tackle David Sharpe got a “we’ll see” thanks to a shoulder injury, and linebacker Alex Anzalone will play with a splint on a thumb.
Florida’s defensive line, which played almost exclusively backups at Vanderbilt due to injuries, is likely to do something similar against the Tigers. Tackle Joey Ivie remains out, as was expected after sustaining a thumb injury expected to keep him out for a month, but end Jordan Sherit, who missed the Vanderbilt game, will get “scoped” — have arthroscopic surgery — and be out for “a little while,” per McElwain, while tackle Caleb Brantley is both “sick” and has a thumb injury, and end Bryan Cox, Jr. is hurt, but McElwain refused to say he would be out.
Brantley and Cox both played against Vanderbilt, with Cox doing so more sparingly, and it would be a bad bet that either or both won’t suit up against LSU, but the Gators’ defensive line behind its starters is largely unproven, though CeCe Jefferson — now “Carl” in McElwainese — drew praise Monday.
Elsewhere, Florida’s dealing with dings and nicks: Wide receiver and special teams gunner Chris Thompson re-aggravated a nagging hamstring injury, wideout Brandon Powell tweaked his ankle, offensive tackle David Sharpe got a “we’ll see” thanks to a shoulder injury, and linebacker Alex Anzalone will play with a splint on a thumb.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Guice is more than capable....and shiftier IMO
Orgeron also confirmed LG Clapp and TE Moreau will be out. Pocic worked some at RT yesterday. It sounds like Teuhema will move over to LG and Dodd at C.
I'm sure it's not unprecedented but I can't remember the last time LSU has been this decimated by the injury bug.
I'm sure it's not unprecedented but I can't remember the last time LSU has been this decimated by the injury bug.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thanks for posting MOT. Everytime I see another player injured on the UF DL you guys have another on the OL so it's just hard to tell who has the edge.
Grove - Question(s) for you. If both Mullen and Freeze were fired this year or took other jobs and you were the AD at both places - who would you hire?
Grove - Question(s) for you. If both Mullen and Freeze were fired this year or took other jobs and you were the AD at both places - who would you hire?
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Apologies for bringing ACC filth into the thread but I thought this was one of the more insightful reads I've had today:
DURHAM, N.C. -- The Duke football team will face a new test this week when Army West Point visits Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium for a 3:30 p.m. game.
After five straight games against teams featuring a spread offense, the Blue Devils will take on the Cadets’ triple option attack.
“They do a lot of different things,” linebacker Ben Humphreys said. “It’s a complete flip of the switch mindset-wise, going from a spread team to a triple option team.”
Duke has had a lot of experience against the triple option in recent years. The Blue Devils play Georgia Tech – a Coastal Division rival – every season. Plus, Duke usually sees Army or Navy every year – including a 44-3 victory in West Point last season.
But this Army team might offer a better test. The Black Knights are off to a 3-1 start this season, including a victory over Temple, a 10-win team in 2015.
“This is a different team than they were last year,” Humphreys said. “They’re going to come at us. They are very different on film than they were last year. They are a lot better.”
In what way?
“Just another year in the offense,” he answered. “Just a year more experienced. The offensive line looks bigger, faster, stronger. You can definitely tell a difference between one year and the next.”
Duke coach David Cutcliffe said the key to stopping the triple option is to combine athleticism with scheme. He said that All-American safety Jeremy Cash was a major reason for Duke’s recent success against triple option teams.
“You can’t replace a guy like that,” Cutcliffe said. “When I went back and looked at last year’s game, his impact was very evident. We worked through the summer and spring knowing this. Hopefully, we can execute and cause issues.”
Senior Corbin McCarthy has replaced Cash at Strike Safety. He’s looking forward to facing a triple option.
“I don’t really see that as a burden … I see that as an opportunity,” he said. “Cash did phenomenally well against the triple option. I’m not a Cash, but I’m definitely looking forward to getting in there and getting in the scheme that Coach [Jim] Knowles has drawn up.”
Humphreys suggested that defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is a secret weapon for the Blue Devils.
“Coach Knowles is the King of the Triple Option,” the young linebacker said. “He is so smart in what he does. His schemes are not like anyone else’s. We’ll attack it from different ways. I think that’s something that other people don’t do. We attack the triple option. We don’t let it come at us.”
McCarthy also credited Knowles and the defensive staff for preparing effective schemes against triple option teams.
“I have to give a huge amount of credit to our coaches,” the senior safety said. “We know what we’re doing and we have an incredible scheme. We also have the players who can do it down the field – as long as we’re working as a team. I think that’s the key, if everyone’s doing their job and working as a unit, we’re going to react very well.”
Cutcliffe said that part of the reason for Duke’s excellence against the triple option comes from Duke’s experience against the offensive scheme.
“We’ve played a lot of option teams,” he said. “We try to learn a lot every time we play against those people.”
Beware the Storm
It’s still early, but there is a good chance that Hurricane Matthew could impact Saturday’s game. The early forecast projects a 90 percent chance of rain in Durham – and if the storm veers east as some projections show, it could get ugly in the Triangle area.
“I’m not going to worry about that until we see [the forecast] Friday,” Cutcliffe said. “We all know the weather changes drastically in predictions from day to day.”
The Duke coach was asked about the old belief the bad weather helps running teams – would rain be to Army’s advantage?
“There is a lot of ballhandling in their offense,” he said. “In the old days, when you lined up in two tight ends and handed the ball off in the I-formation, that’s probably true. They’re not configured like that. We’re not configured like that.
“The other part of is, when you can throw the ball well in wet, it’s a huge advantage. You know where you’re going. We practice in the wet. We practice on the same surface we’re going to play on. It was really wet this morning.
“Now, driving rainstorms are not easy to do anything in.”
But Cutcliffe does have one consolation in the event of bad weather.
“We have the best field in the country in my opinion,” he said. “It’s amazing the way it drains.”
Coping with Disappointment
A week after Duke’s thrilling victory at Notre Dame, the Blue Devils took a step backwards in last Saturday’s loss to Virginia. Many of the same problems that showed up in early losses to Wake Forest and Northwestern showed up against the Cavaliers – especially too many mental breakdowns.
Coach Cutcliffe admitted that he was angry after the game. So were many of his players.
“I was frustrated on Saturday – we all were,” Ben Humphreys said. “This team that I’m on right now is extremely talented and we have so much potential. But we seem to do things during games that are very uncharacteristic of a Duke football team. Those step backs are something we can’t have.
“We were right in that game and we could have won that game. It bothers me when stuff like that happens.”
It bothered Cutcliffe, who was uncharacteristically gruff after the game.
“I wasn’t mad at anybody Saturday,” he said, but admitted that he was mad. “Y’all saw me in the press conference and I was mad Saturday night. Hopefully, all of us are mature enough to understand that getting mad isn’t going to accomplish much or change anything. So I got better. I let it energize me.”
Cutcliffe said he was encouraged by what he’s seen in practice early this week.
“Our team went out there with a sense of purpose,” he said. “They showed up today … they showed up Sunday and it didn’t surprise me.”
The Duke coach said he was not concerned about a possible letdown by his team after such a disappointing loss.
“You are speaking more of the program than the team, when you talk about who we are,” he said. “They know what the program’s about. That will never falter. We said for years – you don’t ever run from it. You run to it.”
Bringing the Heat
A year ago, Duke was one of the poorest pass rush teams in college football.
That’s changed this season. The Blue Devils rank first in the ACC and third nationally with 20 sacks in five games. That’s three more than the 17 sacks that the team recorded in 13 games in 2015.
What’s changed?
“I think we’ve been very creative and I think [first-year defensive line coach] Ben Albert has made a big difference,” Cutcliffe said. “We’ve got some people with the skill to do it. You get into the creativity when you get the DBs – Corbin [McCarthy] and DeVon [Edwards] being so effective as pass rushers – but it’s not an accident that you see A.J. [Wolf] showing up; Marquies [Price] showing up; Brandon Boyceshowing up.
“These guys have got some speed, quickness and strength that help you defeat one-on-one blocks. That’s what we hadn’t had much in the past – we’re defeating blocks more than in the past.”
Wolf, the senior defensive tackle, had half a quarterback sack in his first three seasons at Duke. He already has five sacks in five games this season.
“It’s more of a mentality thing,” he said. “That’s what Coach Albert brought – the mentality to get after the quarterback on every play, not just third down.”
The next few weeks may bring Duke’s sack numbers down. Neither Army, nor Georgia Tech throws the football that much and in between, the Devils will face elusive Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson.
But even so, it’s clear that Duke has significantly strengthened its pass rush this season.
Bringing up a Young Quarterback
Redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel Jones demonstrated his potential with a near-flawless performance in the upset at Notre Dame. Last week, he demonstrated his inexperience with a six turnover effort in the loss to Virginia.
Cutcliffe is very careful to try and protect Jones while helping him grow as a quarterback.
“He a mentally tough guy,” the Duke coach said. “He was a sore guy Sunday. He took a hit that rarely any quarterback who plays the game takes. That doesn’t happen maybe once in a whole lot of football games.”
Jones said he was less bothered by the hit – that forced a fumble that gave the Cavs the game-clinching TD – than by his five interceptions. Cutcliffe made the point that while Jones was ultimately responsible for those five picks, not all five were totally his fault.
“I think he feels very accountable to his team. That’s a good thing. But I don’t want it to play with any kind of fear or feeling like the weight of the world is on his shoulders. There is no sin in making mistakes.”
Jones leads all freshman quarterbacks in FBS in passing yards, pass completions and total offense. He’s just the fourth quarterback in Duke history to top 1,400 yards passing in his first five starts – and the other four were senior Anthony Dilweg, sophomore Sean Renfree and junior Ben Bennett.
“He’s really had a good year – when you eliminate about 10 snaps,” Cutcliffe said. “That’s very unusual to play at the level he’s played at. He’s allowed us to play at a very high level. Now, you can’t eliminate 10 and you can’t eliminate 20, but you can learn from them.”
The biggest lesson Cutcliffe would like to see Jones learn is not to try and force plays.
“To be a really good quarterback, you have to have a willingness to be booed,” he said. “Sometimes you have to take the ball and eat it and get sacked. Sometime you have to throw it away when nobody in the stadium wants you to throw it away. Now you are on your way to becoming a possibly great quarterback. Every quarterback who has ever played for us has heard that.”
Cutcliffe’s Little Black Book
The Duke coach told reporters that he can live with his players’ mistakes because he makes so many of his own.
“There is no sin in making mistakes,” he said. “I’ll never let you see my mistake book. Every mistake I’ve made in coaching – which are far too many to brag about – I try to write them down. And when I write them down, I try and write a solution. It’s called my checklist. So I have one for every month of the year. Because I don’t know about you guys, but I make mistakes 12 months a year. If you don’t believe, just ask my wife.”
DURHAM, N.C. -- The Duke football team will face a new test this week when Army West Point visits Brooks Field at Wallace Wade Stadium for a 3:30 p.m. game.
After five straight games against teams featuring a spread offense, the Blue Devils will take on the Cadets’ triple option attack.
“They do a lot of different things,” linebacker Ben Humphreys said. “It’s a complete flip of the switch mindset-wise, going from a spread team to a triple option team.”
Duke has had a lot of experience against the triple option in recent years. The Blue Devils play Georgia Tech – a Coastal Division rival – every season. Plus, Duke usually sees Army or Navy every year – including a 44-3 victory in West Point last season.
But this Army team might offer a better test. The Black Knights are off to a 3-1 start this season, including a victory over Temple, a 10-win team in 2015.
“This is a different team than they were last year,” Humphreys said. “They’re going to come at us. They are very different on film than they were last year. They are a lot better.”
In what way?
“Just another year in the offense,” he answered. “Just a year more experienced. The offensive line looks bigger, faster, stronger. You can definitely tell a difference between one year and the next.”
Duke coach David Cutcliffe said the key to stopping the triple option is to combine athleticism with scheme. He said that All-American safety Jeremy Cash was a major reason for Duke’s recent success against triple option teams.
“You can’t replace a guy like that,” Cutcliffe said. “When I went back and looked at last year’s game, his impact was very evident. We worked through the summer and spring knowing this. Hopefully, we can execute and cause issues.”
Senior Corbin McCarthy has replaced Cash at Strike Safety. He’s looking forward to facing a triple option.
“I don’t really see that as a burden … I see that as an opportunity,” he said. “Cash did phenomenally well against the triple option. I’m not a Cash, but I’m definitely looking forward to getting in there and getting in the scheme that Coach [Jim] Knowles has drawn up.”
Humphreys suggested that defensive coordinator Jim Knowles is a secret weapon for the Blue Devils.
“Coach Knowles is the King of the Triple Option,” the young linebacker said. “He is so smart in what he does. His schemes are not like anyone else’s. We’ll attack it from different ways. I think that’s something that other people don’t do. We attack the triple option. We don’t let it come at us.”
McCarthy also credited Knowles and the defensive staff for preparing effective schemes against triple option teams.
“I have to give a huge amount of credit to our coaches,” the senior safety said. “We know what we’re doing and we have an incredible scheme. We also have the players who can do it down the field – as long as we’re working as a team. I think that’s the key, if everyone’s doing their job and working as a unit, we’re going to react very well.”
Cutcliffe said that part of the reason for Duke’s excellence against the triple option comes from Duke’s experience against the offensive scheme.
“We’ve played a lot of option teams,” he said. “We try to learn a lot every time we play against those people.”
Beware the Storm
It’s still early, but there is a good chance that Hurricane Matthew could impact Saturday’s game. The early forecast projects a 90 percent chance of rain in Durham – and if the storm veers east as some projections show, it could get ugly in the Triangle area.
“I’m not going to worry about that until we see [the forecast] Friday,” Cutcliffe said. “We all know the weather changes drastically in predictions from day to day.”
The Duke coach was asked about the old belief the bad weather helps running teams – would rain be to Army’s advantage?
“There is a lot of ballhandling in their offense,” he said. “In the old days, when you lined up in two tight ends and handed the ball off in the I-formation, that’s probably true. They’re not configured like that. We’re not configured like that.
“The other part of is, when you can throw the ball well in wet, it’s a huge advantage. You know where you’re going. We practice in the wet. We practice on the same surface we’re going to play on. It was really wet this morning.
“Now, driving rainstorms are not easy to do anything in.”
But Cutcliffe does have one consolation in the event of bad weather.
“We have the best field in the country in my opinion,” he said. “It’s amazing the way it drains.”
Coping with Disappointment
A week after Duke’s thrilling victory at Notre Dame, the Blue Devils took a step backwards in last Saturday’s loss to Virginia. Many of the same problems that showed up in early losses to Wake Forest and Northwestern showed up against the Cavaliers – especially too many mental breakdowns.
Coach Cutcliffe admitted that he was angry after the game. So were many of his players.
“I was frustrated on Saturday – we all were,” Ben Humphreys said. “This team that I’m on right now is extremely talented and we have so much potential. But we seem to do things during games that are very uncharacteristic of a Duke football team. Those step backs are something we can’t have.
“We were right in that game and we could have won that game. It bothers me when stuff like that happens.”
It bothered Cutcliffe, who was uncharacteristically gruff after the game.
“I wasn’t mad at anybody Saturday,” he said, but admitted that he was mad. “Y’all saw me in the press conference and I was mad Saturday night. Hopefully, all of us are mature enough to understand that getting mad isn’t going to accomplish much or change anything. So I got better. I let it energize me.”
Cutcliffe said he was encouraged by what he’s seen in practice early this week.
“Our team went out there with a sense of purpose,” he said. “They showed up today … they showed up Sunday and it didn’t surprise me.”
The Duke coach said he was not concerned about a possible letdown by his team after such a disappointing loss.
“You are speaking more of the program than the team, when you talk about who we are,” he said. “They know what the program’s about. That will never falter. We said for years – you don’t ever run from it. You run to it.”
Bringing the Heat
A year ago, Duke was one of the poorest pass rush teams in college football.
That’s changed this season. The Blue Devils rank first in the ACC and third nationally with 20 sacks in five games. That’s three more than the 17 sacks that the team recorded in 13 games in 2015.
What’s changed?
“I think we’ve been very creative and I think [first-year defensive line coach] Ben Albert has made a big difference,” Cutcliffe said. “We’ve got some people with the skill to do it. You get into the creativity when you get the DBs – Corbin [McCarthy] and DeVon [Edwards] being so effective as pass rushers – but it’s not an accident that you see A.J. [Wolf] showing up; Marquies [Price] showing up; Brandon Boyceshowing up.
“These guys have got some speed, quickness and strength that help you defeat one-on-one blocks. That’s what we hadn’t had much in the past – we’re defeating blocks more than in the past.”
Wolf, the senior defensive tackle, had half a quarterback sack in his first three seasons at Duke. He already has five sacks in five games this season.
“It’s more of a mentality thing,” he said. “That’s what Coach Albert brought – the mentality to get after the quarterback on every play, not just third down.”
The next few weeks may bring Duke’s sack numbers down. Neither Army, nor Georgia Tech throws the football that much and in between, the Devils will face elusive Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson.
But even so, it’s clear that Duke has significantly strengthened its pass rush this season.
Bringing up a Young Quarterback
Redshirt freshman quarterback Daniel Jones demonstrated his potential with a near-flawless performance in the upset at Notre Dame. Last week, he demonstrated his inexperience with a six turnover effort in the loss to Virginia.
Cutcliffe is very careful to try and protect Jones while helping him grow as a quarterback.
“He a mentally tough guy,” the Duke coach said. “He was a sore guy Sunday. He took a hit that rarely any quarterback who plays the game takes. That doesn’t happen maybe once in a whole lot of football games.”
Jones said he was less bothered by the hit – that forced a fumble that gave the Cavs the game-clinching TD – than by his five interceptions. Cutcliffe made the point that while Jones was ultimately responsible for those five picks, not all five were totally his fault.
“I think he feels very accountable to his team. That’s a good thing. But I don’t want it to play with any kind of fear or feeling like the weight of the world is on his shoulders. There is no sin in making mistakes.”
Jones leads all freshman quarterbacks in FBS in passing yards, pass completions and total offense. He’s just the fourth quarterback in Duke history to top 1,400 yards passing in his first five starts – and the other four were senior Anthony Dilweg, sophomore Sean Renfree and junior Ben Bennett.
“He’s really had a good year – when you eliminate about 10 snaps,” Cutcliffe said. “That’s very unusual to play at the level he’s played at. He’s allowed us to play at a very high level. Now, you can’t eliminate 10 and you can’t eliminate 20, but you can learn from them.”
The biggest lesson Cutcliffe would like to see Jones learn is not to try and force plays.
“To be a really good quarterback, you have to have a willingness to be booed,” he said. “Sometimes you have to take the ball and eat it and get sacked. Sometime you have to throw it away when nobody in the stadium wants you to throw it away. Now you are on your way to becoming a possibly great quarterback. Every quarterback who has ever played for us has heard that.”
Cutcliffe’s Little Black Book
The Duke coach told reporters that he can live with his players’ mistakes because he makes so many of his own.
“There is no sin in making mistakes,” he said. “I’ll never let you see my mistake book. Every mistake I’ve made in coaching – which are far too many to brag about – I try to write them down. And when I write them down, I try and write a solution. It’s called my checklist. So I have one for every month of the year. Because I don’t know about you guys, but I make mistakes 12 months a year. If you don’t believe, just ask my wife.”
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Thoughts on Auburn/Miss St:
Last season Miss St won at Auburn 17-9 as 1.5 dog and the total was 58. Both QB were pretty good, without looking it up this is prob White's best game he's had against Power 5 team - 20/28 for 188 0/1. Auburn ran it 50 times for 200 yards so they didn't get much going on the ground and Miss St was worse with 56 yards on 21 carries. Auburn was really bad by the goal line they had 4 trips inside the 10 - INT in the end zone, missed 26 yard FG, hit 25 yard FG, hit 30 yard FG. Sounds pretty similar to some of their games this year in that regard. Miss St has done well in the series recently winning 3 of the last 4.
I don't have a great feel for this game.I'm really trying to still figure out Miss St. I had them extremely over rated coming into the season, prob as bad an evaluation as I can remember having, so I'm still trying to objectively recalibrate that. Grove mentioned it above but the OL has not been good nor has the run game which should come as no surprise. I am encouraged for them to see Shumpert getting more carries and not trying to run the diminutive Holloway between the tackles. At QB Fitzgerald is a really poor passer right now - he was an option QB in Georgia in HS and he is a great runner and has NFL size but his accuracy is not good. Problem is, they get so little traditional production from the RB spot I think Mullen prob feels forced to use him as Williams isn't as athletic but throws it better. I have gone back and forth on who I think they should go with and right now I'm just glad I'm not the coach that saw Prescott leave and have to decide between these guys. My quick take on Miss St - they are going to be able to score on the average to bad teams they play but I don't like their chances to score a bunch on the SEC West teams still left on the schedule. I think next week there is a chance they play a shootout with BYU but against the division opponents I tend to think they won't do a ton offensively but you can't total their games too low simply because of pace. Getting the bye week and this game at home may be bigger than I am giving them credit for but the product I've seen on the field has shown a defense that looks lost at times with depth on the DL, a great LB and kinda meh past that. Thing is, I don't know that Auburn can fully take advantage of it. I think the Auburn DL could really cause problems for the Miss St OL and I think Carlton Davis is good enough to keep Ross limited on the edge should they elect to have him shadow the big fella. I think this game has potential to be a bit lower scoring but with two teams who are comfortable moving quickly I'm a bit cautious. The over has actually taken some money I currently see a total of 54.5 at most places and I think if I got 56 I would consider putting a little on the under. I bet this preseason and have Miss St PICK thinking that they were going to be better than they were and this would be a 6 or 7 point line versus a struggling Auburn team. Auburn is about how I thought they were - defense prob a bit better than I thought and offense has prob helped a bit with that stylistically than they have in year's past. 27-24 seems plausible to me, hoping it's State but not all that confident.
Last season Miss St won at Auburn 17-9 as 1.5 dog and the total was 58. Both QB were pretty good, without looking it up this is prob White's best game he's had against Power 5 team - 20/28 for 188 0/1. Auburn ran it 50 times for 200 yards so they didn't get much going on the ground and Miss St was worse with 56 yards on 21 carries. Auburn was really bad by the goal line they had 4 trips inside the 10 - INT in the end zone, missed 26 yard FG, hit 25 yard FG, hit 30 yard FG. Sounds pretty similar to some of their games this year in that regard. Miss St has done well in the series recently winning 3 of the last 4.
I don't have a great feel for this game.I'm really trying to still figure out Miss St. I had them extremely over rated coming into the season, prob as bad an evaluation as I can remember having, so I'm still trying to objectively recalibrate that. Grove mentioned it above but the OL has not been good nor has the run game which should come as no surprise. I am encouraged for them to see Shumpert getting more carries and not trying to run the diminutive Holloway between the tackles. At QB Fitzgerald is a really poor passer right now - he was an option QB in Georgia in HS and he is a great runner and has NFL size but his accuracy is not good. Problem is, they get so little traditional production from the RB spot I think Mullen prob feels forced to use him as Williams isn't as athletic but throws it better. I have gone back and forth on who I think they should go with and right now I'm just glad I'm not the coach that saw Prescott leave and have to decide between these guys. My quick take on Miss St - they are going to be able to score on the average to bad teams they play but I don't like their chances to score a bunch on the SEC West teams still left on the schedule. I think next week there is a chance they play a shootout with BYU but against the division opponents I tend to think they won't do a ton offensively but you can't total their games too low simply because of pace. Getting the bye week and this game at home may be bigger than I am giving them credit for but the product I've seen on the field has shown a defense that looks lost at times with depth on the DL, a great LB and kinda meh past that. Thing is, I don't know that Auburn can fully take advantage of it. I think the Auburn DL could really cause problems for the Miss St OL and I think Carlton Davis is good enough to keep Ross limited on the edge should they elect to have him shadow the big fella. I think this game has potential to be a bit lower scoring but with two teams who are comfortable moving quickly I'm a bit cautious. The over has actually taken some money I currently see a total of 54.5 at most places and I think if I got 56 I would consider putting a little on the under. I bet this preseason and have Miss St PICK thinking that they were going to be better than they were and this would be a 6 or 7 point line versus a struggling Auburn team. Auburn is about how I thought they were - defense prob a bit better than I thought and offense has prob helped a bit with that stylistically than they have in year's past. 27-24 seems plausible to me, hoping it's State but not all that confident.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
UF is totally to blame for it....LSU is NOT happy according to everyone
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
Grovehard
Pretty much a regular
LSU and UF both play cupcakes on 11/19. UF should have to buy those games out and play LSU then.
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Virginia Tech +3.5
I made VT the favorite in this game. The situation is the main reason I had this game circled last Saturday. UNC off biggest win in program history (?) and the second consecutive win on the last play of the game. Hard to manage those emotions and get back to where you need to be for this game. VT of the bye which really plays almost perfectly into this equation with a chance to regroup and re-evaluate all the new systems, etc that came with the coaching change. UNC has one of the best passing games in the country and I like the VT pass defense. The UNC defense is still a sieve and I think VT can and will run on them and Evans is quietly becoming one of the better QBs in the ACC. I bet this before I was Hurricane Matthew literate but think weather helps my bet a bit here - VT has been awful at fumbling the football dating back to at least last season which is a concern but if UNC can't pass like they want to both as result of weather and the VT secondary, this becomes a much more average offense with a very bad defense. I'm buying the Hokies and think they will end up being very dangerous in the home stretch as they should continue to mature each week under Fuente's offense and leadership.
GT +8
Third time the Admiral is a TD+ dog this season and I'm 0-1 so far betting one of my favorite subsets in CFB. GT unlucky to lose last week to Miami in the way that they did - Miami had two fumbles returned for TD in what ended up as a 2 TD win. GT was -3 in TO and while Miami just made more big plays in all phases. Pitt has not defended the option well - Pitt won 31-28 in Atlanta last year despite being outgained 482-391. The year before GT scored 56 on 612 yards offense. The Pitt offense looks prob a bit more impressive on paper than they really are, IMO, as they have yet to play a defense I would even refer to as decent. The Pitt secondary is their clear weakness but I think part of their bad numbers there are a product of teams they have played and their good rush defense numbers prob the same. Either way, I think GT is going to be able to move it enough and I don't think the Pitt offense is explosive enough to get this game out of balance and get Tech off their game. Major relief in athleticism for Tech going from Clemson to Miami to now Pitt. I do like GT to get the outright win but hope they don't so I can look to back them next week at home against Ga So.
Duke -4
Duke obliterated Army last season 44-3 and outgained Army 458-168. As you can read in the article I posted yesterday they attack the option and it's really effective. Duke faces a lot of option teams and spent time this summer preparing to defend the option. Army prob much improved from last year but none of their wins are against decent teams and their loss was to a cellar dwellar, Buffalo, 23-20 in a game they had no business losing. Duke has been inconsistent and I am trusting a QB, maybe in bad weather, that just turned it over a ton in a loss to UVA but I think Cutcliffe's points in the article help ease some of those fears. Weather is no surprise to anyone betting the game and this point and Duke is now taking good money today so that is reassuring as well. Would prefer there to not be any weather but I feel better than I did early this week after seeing the storm path. Think Duke dominates again defensively and does enough on offense for a DD win.
Syracuse +3
Haven't had too many chances to bet Cuse this year when they are either the better team or at least comparable in talent. Louisville, USF, ND - tall task for a team learning a polar opposite system than what they were recruited for. I took them against UConn as a dog and they won outright at a similar price and I expect the same from them in this spot. Count me in the group that isn't ready to buy 4-1 Wake. They had no business winning at Indy (10% win expectancy) and got smacked last week by NC State. The Tulane, Duke and Delaware wins are games I bet wish Cuse had instead of Ville, USF, ND.. If you flipped schedules then Cuse is a good size favorite in this game. You can't and they aren't but I'm good with that. Similar to the game against UConn, Wake doesn't have the offense to keep up with Cuse and they just aren't going to be stopped flat by many teams they play. This is my biggest weather concern game I've bet. Indoor team playing outside relying on passing and tempo - kinda a tortoise and the hare game. If weather ends up being okay I feel really good about this one but would prob pass on the game given the potential for weather at this point. Line still sitting most shops at 2.5 so that feels good.
WKU/LT OVER 65.5
Should have pretty nice tempo although not ideal given a total this high. Both teams far superior on offense to defense. La Tech has faced some really nice offense and that will make any teams numbers take a hit but their S&P+ defense is actually 118th compared to their scoring defense at 80th indicating they may be somewhat fortunate to have only given up as many points as they have and/or they have a really nice red zone defense - I'll side with the former. I mentioned it in my thoughts on the WKU Vandy game which I watched but WKU left three scores on the table in that 30-31 OT loss. These two pass an avg of 74 times combined per game and this will be the first time that WKU is challenged by a team that likes to use some tempo and spread things out. I had this circled as an over and/or La Tech last week and got a number less than 70 so went with the total. Like the TV element here with both teams getting exposure and likely to pull out all the stops for the win. WKU without one of their best defenders. Pretty great group of mid major WR on display here.
AFA/Wyoming UNDER 57
Had this circled as a potential under spot. Wyoming not a big threat passing and relies on the run game. AFA nations #1 rush defense giving up 1.5 ypc and #1 in rush yards allowed per game at 42! Neither team in a hurry to snap it, we could see as many as 100 running plays in this game (last year 93). AFA beat WYO LY 31-17 in a game that had less than 700 total yards and 35 FD - 17-13 the year before. Wyo held 4/5 to under 4 ypc including Nebraska to 3.2 ypc.
FSU/Miami Under 65.5
FSU faced Ole Miss, Louisville, UNC so far - that's the S&P+ #1, #3, #4 offenses in the country. Miami is good but numbers prob a bit inflated considering the teams faced thus far. Miami is living dangerously relying so much on big plays - FSU has shown they are willing to give them up but I get the sense so much of what Miami has done is a product of being FAR superior athletically to every team they've played. I think it's reasonable to suggest they have enjoyed the largest athletic and talent margin of any team this season and I don't think it's prob close. So I'm not buying the Miami offense just yet but I do like the defense and trust Diaz to take away the run here as he is notorious in scheming to take away whatever your best is - which for FSU is Cook and the ground game. The Miami DL is statistically the best in the nation going against an underachieving FSU OL. Now, this is still FSU/Miami and it could turn into all sorts of chaos in a hurry but I think this game has potential, I'm not necessarily expecting this, to be a game played in the 30's or 40's and stay under by 3 TD. FSU very slow pace wise and Miami will use tempo when it's a perceived edge but is still pretty average and I expect this to be a slower paced game. Weather shouldn't be factor as it looks like it will be gone by then.
Iowa State +17.5 -115
Been watching these guys all season and the proverbial corner has been turned. They were really unlucky to not have beaten Baylor last week in Ames and were it not for some questionable officiating (I'm looking at you Big 12 money men) then the Big 12 could have been all but eliminated from the playoff discussion the first week in October. OL playing great ball past two games, players adjusting to Campbell's offensive philosophy and the strength of the Iowa State defense is clearly the secondary which is easily the strength of the Okie Lite offense. Give Okie Lite credit the have found ways to play the weirdest games all season wheteher its ref errors, weather patterns, crazy plays or a combination they somehow sit 3-2 when in my opinion they should be 5-0. That being said, the defense is still a turd and I'm not ready to buy in on their run game just yet. Last year Ok St won 35-31 in Ames and two years ago 37-20 in Stillwater. I really like Iowa State as a big dog right now and think they can score with the Pokes while keeping them under 40.
Iowa/Minny UNDER 52 -115
Iowa/Minny stylistically are just what mid-tier B1G football is all about. Should see below average pace with 80+ running plays. Iowa offense has been truly abysmal past 3 games, failing to reach 5 ypp in any of them and avg 22 ppg. The Iowa run defense has been inexplicably poor but gets a pretty straightforward task in this one as they are gonna just see the Minny power run game time and again. Minny offense lacks any explosiveness but defensively have shown they are prone to giving up explosive plays through the air and that's not where Iowa is going to really threaten especially with the loss of Vandeberg and the fact their OL can't keep him upright. Really hard to believe Iowa is favored here - they are a bad football team right now with three really nice defenders and that's about it. Even as poor as Iowa has played at times defensively this will still be the best unit Minny will have faced thus far. Must win for both teams to have any shot in the division and an Iowa loss here and they go from the Rose Bowl LY to possibly missing out on a bowl altogether..
I made VT the favorite in this game. The situation is the main reason I had this game circled last Saturday. UNC off biggest win in program history (?) and the second consecutive win on the last play of the game. Hard to manage those emotions and get back to where you need to be for this game. VT of the bye which really plays almost perfectly into this equation with a chance to regroup and re-evaluate all the new systems, etc that came with the coaching change. UNC has one of the best passing games in the country and I like the VT pass defense. The UNC defense is still a sieve and I think VT can and will run on them and Evans is quietly becoming one of the better QBs in the ACC. I bet this before I was Hurricane Matthew literate but think weather helps my bet a bit here - VT has been awful at fumbling the football dating back to at least last season which is a concern but if UNC can't pass like they want to both as result of weather and the VT secondary, this becomes a much more average offense with a very bad defense. I'm buying the Hokies and think they will end up being very dangerous in the home stretch as they should continue to mature each week under Fuente's offense and leadership.
GT +8
Third time the Admiral is a TD+ dog this season and I'm 0-1 so far betting one of my favorite subsets in CFB. GT unlucky to lose last week to Miami in the way that they did - Miami had two fumbles returned for TD in what ended up as a 2 TD win. GT was -3 in TO and while Miami just made more big plays in all phases. Pitt has not defended the option well - Pitt won 31-28 in Atlanta last year despite being outgained 482-391. The year before GT scored 56 on 612 yards offense. The Pitt offense looks prob a bit more impressive on paper than they really are, IMO, as they have yet to play a defense I would even refer to as decent. The Pitt secondary is their clear weakness but I think part of their bad numbers there are a product of teams they have played and their good rush defense numbers prob the same. Either way, I think GT is going to be able to move it enough and I don't think the Pitt offense is explosive enough to get this game out of balance and get Tech off their game. Major relief in athleticism for Tech going from Clemson to Miami to now Pitt. I do like GT to get the outright win but hope they don't so I can look to back them next week at home against Ga So.
Duke -4
Duke obliterated Army last season 44-3 and outgained Army 458-168. As you can read in the article I posted yesterday they attack the option and it's really effective. Duke faces a lot of option teams and spent time this summer preparing to defend the option. Army prob much improved from last year but none of their wins are against decent teams and their loss was to a cellar dwellar, Buffalo, 23-20 in a game they had no business losing. Duke has been inconsistent and I am trusting a QB, maybe in bad weather, that just turned it over a ton in a loss to UVA but I think Cutcliffe's points in the article help ease some of those fears. Weather is no surprise to anyone betting the game and this point and Duke is now taking good money today so that is reassuring as well. Would prefer there to not be any weather but I feel better than I did early this week after seeing the storm path. Think Duke dominates again defensively and does enough on offense for a DD win.
Syracuse +3
Haven't had too many chances to bet Cuse this year when they are either the better team or at least comparable in talent. Louisville, USF, ND - tall task for a team learning a polar opposite system than what they were recruited for. I took them against UConn as a dog and they won outright at a similar price and I expect the same from them in this spot. Count me in the group that isn't ready to buy 4-1 Wake. They had no business winning at Indy (10% win expectancy) and got smacked last week by NC State. The Tulane, Duke and Delaware wins are games I bet wish Cuse had instead of Ville, USF, ND.. If you flipped schedules then Cuse is a good size favorite in this game. You can't and they aren't but I'm good with that. Similar to the game against UConn, Wake doesn't have the offense to keep up with Cuse and they just aren't going to be stopped flat by many teams they play. This is my biggest weather concern game I've bet. Indoor team playing outside relying on passing and tempo - kinda a tortoise and the hare game. If weather ends up being okay I feel really good about this one but would prob pass on the game given the potential for weather at this point. Line still sitting most shops at 2.5 so that feels good.
WKU/LT OVER 65.5
Should have pretty nice tempo although not ideal given a total this high. Both teams far superior on offense to defense. La Tech has faced some really nice offense and that will make any teams numbers take a hit but their S&P+ defense is actually 118th compared to their scoring defense at 80th indicating they may be somewhat fortunate to have only given up as many points as they have and/or they have a really nice red zone defense - I'll side with the former. I mentioned it in my thoughts on the WKU Vandy game which I watched but WKU left three scores on the table in that 30-31 OT loss. These two pass an avg of 74 times combined per game and this will be the first time that WKU is challenged by a team that likes to use some tempo and spread things out. I had this circled as an over and/or La Tech last week and got a number less than 70 so went with the total. Like the TV element here with both teams getting exposure and likely to pull out all the stops for the win. WKU without one of their best defenders. Pretty great group of mid major WR on display here.
AFA/Wyoming UNDER 57
Had this circled as a potential under spot. Wyoming not a big threat passing and relies on the run game. AFA nations #1 rush defense giving up 1.5 ypc and #1 in rush yards allowed per game at 42! Neither team in a hurry to snap it, we could see as many as 100 running plays in this game (last year 93). AFA beat WYO LY 31-17 in a game that had less than 700 total yards and 35 FD - 17-13 the year before. Wyo held 4/5 to under 4 ypc including Nebraska to 3.2 ypc.
FSU/Miami Under 65.5
FSU faced Ole Miss, Louisville, UNC so far - that's the S&P+ #1, #3, #4 offenses in the country. Miami is good but numbers prob a bit inflated considering the teams faced thus far. Miami is living dangerously relying so much on big plays - FSU has shown they are willing to give them up but I get the sense so much of what Miami has done is a product of being FAR superior athletically to every team they've played. I think it's reasonable to suggest they have enjoyed the largest athletic and talent margin of any team this season and I don't think it's prob close. So I'm not buying the Miami offense just yet but I do like the defense and trust Diaz to take away the run here as he is notorious in scheming to take away whatever your best is - which for FSU is Cook and the ground game. The Miami DL is statistically the best in the nation going against an underachieving FSU OL. Now, this is still FSU/Miami and it could turn into all sorts of chaos in a hurry but I think this game has potential, I'm not necessarily expecting this, to be a game played in the 30's or 40's and stay under by 3 TD. FSU very slow pace wise and Miami will use tempo when it's a perceived edge but is still pretty average and I expect this to be a slower paced game. Weather shouldn't be factor as it looks like it will be gone by then.
Iowa State +17.5 -115
Been watching these guys all season and the proverbial corner has been turned. They were really unlucky to not have beaten Baylor last week in Ames and were it not for some questionable officiating (I'm looking at you Big 12 money men) then the Big 12 could have been all but eliminated from the playoff discussion the first week in October. OL playing great ball past two games, players adjusting to Campbell's offensive philosophy and the strength of the Iowa State defense is clearly the secondary which is easily the strength of the Okie Lite offense. Give Okie Lite credit the have found ways to play the weirdest games all season wheteher its ref errors, weather patterns, crazy plays or a combination they somehow sit 3-2 when in my opinion they should be 5-0. That being said, the defense is still a turd and I'm not ready to buy in on their run game just yet. Last year Ok St won 35-31 in Ames and two years ago 37-20 in Stillwater. I really like Iowa State as a big dog right now and think they can score with the Pokes while keeping them under 40.
Iowa/Minny UNDER 52 -115
Iowa/Minny stylistically are just what mid-tier B1G football is all about. Should see below average pace with 80+ running plays. Iowa offense has been truly abysmal past 3 games, failing to reach 5 ypp in any of them and avg 22 ppg. The Iowa run defense has been inexplicably poor but gets a pretty straightforward task in this one as they are gonna just see the Minny power run game time and again. Minny offense lacks any explosiveness but defensively have shown they are prone to giving up explosive plays through the air and that's not where Iowa is going to really threaten especially with the loss of Vandeberg and the fact their OL can't keep him upright. Really hard to believe Iowa is favored here - they are a bad football team right now with three really nice defenders and that's about it. Even as poor as Iowa has played at times defensively this will still be the best unit Minny will have faced thus far. Must win for both teams to have any shot in the division and an Iowa loss here and they go from the Rose Bowl LY to possibly missing out on a bowl altogether..
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
Curious to hear any thoughts you may have on the PAC 12 games?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Oregon catching 9 at home, when did that last happen? Anyway, this UW team is so stout along both lines, I'd look at their team total as I don't see any way they don't just torture that porous defense other than mental mistakes (they're young and on the road against a desperate team so it surely could happen) but the coaching mismatch is enormous. GL with the points, I'm pretty sure I'll just be on the team total because I sure don't like the concept of laying the points in that stadium.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
UF is gonna hide behind the storm, but they really fucked this up
CrimsonK
Sid Bream Supporter
I thought about the Wash TT O as well. Glad to hear a west coast aficionado like yourself agree. I have them to win the P12 and I had this game circled as the biggest hurdle to winning that bet but I feel a lot better now given that Wash has played the part and Oregon may fire their first coach in 40 years
