I will be on Auburn, and if State gets the cash this week, then I anticipate going max bet on BYU next Friday.
Both auburn and State avg 6.0 per play and give up 5.2. Give AU the special teams edge and the -2 seems fair. My total would be 48 fwiw.
imo the Aggies injuries were a bigger factor than I anticipated and Carolinas defense played well. SC better stick with that backup QB if they have any damn sense
GL this week
Cowbells probably good for a couple of points though, so right back at PK. AU's first road game too. But early kick usually favors the road team, and if anyone is used to playing the 11 AM SEC game, it's AU
I can't quite figure AU out. They've played 3 games against quality opponents, going 1-2, but were somewhat competitive in all 3. But although competitive, they didn't look especially good in any of them, including the win against LSU. They've blown out two bad teams. Miss St falls somewhere in between. This might be a game where both teams find some success moving the ball and scoring some points. I can't call it anything other than a coin flip as far who wins, but if the total comes out relatively low, I'll look hard at the over. I could see both teams getting into the mid to high 20's here
Cowbells probably good for a couple of points though, so right back at PK. AU's first road game too. But early kick usually favors the road team, and if anyone is used to playing the 11 AM SEC game, it's AU
My head tells me that Tennessee can't keep coming back in these games, but I've watched AU do it twice in the last 6 years. I think they have a serious step up in competition the next two weeks, and if they spot Aggie or Alabama 3 score leads at half, I don't think it will end well for the Vols.
A lot of things were atrocious in the last minute of game time of the UGA/UT game. How in the world do you let a WR behind you if you're UT? And what a ridiculously bad penalty by the player that wasn't even on the field for the play to cost UGA 15 yards on the kickoff. And why don't coaches rush more than 3 DL on an obvious Hail Mary situation?
I watched some of the Vandy/UF game, but my eyes started bleeding. That's not good defense, it's just really bad offense. Florida didn't deserve the cover, but should have had it but a fumbled snap at the 1 yard line was pretty much a microcosm of this game's offensive ineptitude. So was Vandy punting with 90 seconds left.
Didn't watch much of the other games except bits and pieces. AU is really good at beating up the shitty teams. But I think Vandy is the only guaranteed win from here on out. And Alabama A&M or whoever they play in the SEC/SOCON challenge in late November
Good for coach O and LSU finding some offensive success. Maybe the problem is Fournette?
Kind of blah efforts from aTm and Alabama, not much to learn from those I don't think. For Alabama, Hurts made some nice downfield throws, which is something he needs to improve on if he has any plans on leading the team to a championship. He'll need to pass us to a win at some point. The running game is starting to come together, which was a concern. I know it's Kent St and UK, but the confidence that comes from successful reps is a plus.
Nice to see Ole Miss have an effective run game. I still have them as the second highest rated (PR) team in the conference and if they continue to play well, they may not lose again
Mullen is a good coach, but his failure to land elite talent has caught up to him. Auburn is far from good, but their roster is more talented than State's at virtually every position. I give Auburn the nod at OL, DL, CB, S, RB, and ST. QB is close, WR is a wash, and State has better LBs. Also, "must wins" don't always equal "will wins," but if Gus loses this one, then he's done. There aren't many wins left on Auburn's schedule. It's a small to medium wager for me, but I think Auburn gets it done...and if they don't then BYU will get my money back.
Here is what I've got this week. I may need to start an ACC thread haha
SEC:
USCe+8.5
aTm -5
Vandy/Kentucky UNDER 51
LSU/Florida OVER 40.5
Other:
Virginia Tech +3.5
GT +8
Duke -4
Syracuse +3
WKU/LT OVER 65.5
Air Force/Wyoming UNDER 57
FSU/Miami UNDER 65.5
Funny you mention that, but I feel like the last several years I've done much better betting other conferences, namely the B1G, than the SEC. Maybe it's because I don't have any inherent biases in other leagues. I probably always underrate AU and UT and look for reasons to bet against them
Wonder how much Prescott was hiding as far as teams overall ability. He was that special at QB for them.
As for must wins ... show me the miss st path to bowl eligibility if they drop this game. Their last four games are TAMU (far tougher out than aub as we know), at bama, vs arkansas (again a tougher out than aub), and at Ole Miss in the egg bowl. Throw in they have to beat the fcs, uk and byu in provo to even have one of those wins matter. This team could potentially finish with 4 wins if they are losing to auburn at home.
http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ufj5P3W7Jw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
LMFAO that is so great.....Wonder how much Prescott was hiding as far as teams overall ability. He was that special at QB for them.
As for must wins ... show me the miss st path to bowl eligibility if they drop this game. Their last four games are TAMU (far tougher out than aub as we know), at bama, vs arkansas (again a tougher out than aub), and at Ole Miss in the egg bowl. Throw in they have to beat the fcs, uk and byu in provo to even have one of those wins matter. This team could potentially finish with 4 wins if they are losing to auburn at home.
http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ufj5P3W7Jw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
The thing is, in most years, the lack of developed talent at Carolina would make them a pretty good candidate to get steamrolled by a team that recruits like UGA. Pretty sure that's what happened last year - they just didn't have the horses and UGA rolled them 52-20.
TAMU seems a little high even if TENN can't run with all the horseshoes hiding where the sun don't shine
What happened last year is a Georgia team that had been beaten too many times by Spurrier's best teams finally had a decisive edge and took out their frustration on the chickens.
I will be on Auburn, and if State gets the cash this week, then I anticipate going max bet on BYU next Friday.
What are your thoughts on what you've seen from State thus far? I feel less confident in my read on them than prob any team in conf right now. I can't find a UMASS replay anywhere either
Playing teams from the SEC West hasn't been pleasant for Jones and Vols. Losers of 11 straight, 2-9 ATS, outscored on average 38-14. We saw some of the regression on their fumble luck last week and expect that to continue down the stretch. I mentioned it a few weeks ago but the odds they recovered the amount of fumbles in their games so far this season was 323/1 so I'm pretty confident in saying that goes the other way on them sooner rather than later. UT yardage disparities this season +27, -70, +86, +96, -35. These guys just aren't that good. The Auburn team that did this same thing you could at least point to a couple superstar players and things they did really, really well - what does UT do really, really well? I'll have more thoughts later this week but I think they get whipped this week and next.
It's apparent that Mullen didn't expect to be in Starkville at this point, and the roster reflects that. It's easy to say that they miss Dak, and they do, but their QB play is way down their list of problems. Their OL is awful. They don't have an SEC RB. Their secondary is really bad. Their DL lacks a true pass rusher. Their LBs are solid, but they aren't ideal for the scheme (4th DC in 4 years, I believe.) They have some talented WRs, but Fitz doesn't generally have much time to get them the ball.
Here is their OL in action against UMass:
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Crimson, I was going to mention if you didn't about Tim Williams last week. I'm sure some of it was the opponent, but that's the best he's looked since the Michigan St game last year, and probably ever. Maybe the arrest got his attention and he realizes how easily he could be throwing away a big payday by being stupid
I think the offense is kind of like it was this time last year. Last season, we looked very disjointed as if we were trying to figure out what we were going to be. Coker had not hit on a single long TD pass until the UGA game, which was game 5 last season. When he started connecting on those, our offense all the sudden became pretty dynamic and Lane Kiffin discovered we had Derrick Henry on the roster. I think we have been searching for our identity so far, and there are things from the UK game that lead me to believe we are close. One was Hurts, like Coker before him, finally converting some down field passes. Seems that Hurts and Ridley in particular are finally getting the timing down. Also, there was a concentrated effort to get the ball in Ridley's hands no matter what. Similar to 2014 with Amari. The injury to Stewart I think has been part of the problem, as well as the revolving door at RB. But with Stewart coming back soon and looking like we are settling into a Damien Harris/Joshua Jacobs 1-2 at RB, we may finally see some consistency. We better, because we will need it. Luckily, we have scored a non-offensve TD 7 or 8 games in a row, so that helps
Twink, no, I'm not. I kinda talked about that little in my above post.
ProV - That is an insane stat
The thing that kills me about the whole Tim Williams deal was that he picked what has to be the absolute dumbest place to sit and smoke weed and tote a pistol. Publix is better lit than the stadium and has prob the same amount of police patrol. I made plenty of bad decisions while in school there particularly when it comes to late night Messy fries but this was a head scratcher.
I have really liked Jacobs at RB. I can't figure out what's going on with Bo - I was glad he scored and he looks like Henry with his upright style, size and dreads but he has been a total non-factor. Funny considering 5dimes had odds on him pre-season for Heisman but didn't for Lamar Jackson.. I'm just hoping Stewart is back for Tenn and aTm - this game would be great but prob not as necessary.
agree on your thoughts....what is plan B is Hurts get Hurt?
Think you're talking about Robert Foster. He was the #1 guy last year, but hurt his shoulder against Ole Miss and was out for the season. From what I've been told, his work ethic took a nosedive during his rehab and he's been passed by Ridley and Stewart, with Cam Sims coming on strong. I think the Gehrig Dieter experiment has been a surprise. He led the nation with fewest drops per attempt at Bowling Green, now he can't catch water if he fell out of a boat. As far as Bo, he's had some major injuries to deal with that slowed his development, but I think he's in a pretty similar spot Henry was at the same point in their careers. Too early to call him a bust IMO. But unlike Henry, Bo is not a model citizen or teammate, so who knows what will happen. Especially with Najee Harris getting to town in January
And CK, the only thing I can think is that those Publix chicken fingers were calling his name. Glad he took Cris Carter's advice and had a fall guy with him