Week 6 SEC Discussion

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Week 6 PR lines:

Alabama -9.5 @ Arkansas
Mississippi St -2.5 vs Auburn
UGA -9.5 @ South Carolina
Florida -1.5 vs LSU
aTm -9 vs Tennessee
Vandy -2 @ UK


Some interesting results from week 5 and upcoming games to discuss. Let's do it
 
My head tells me that Tennessee can't keep coming back in these games, but I've watched AU do it twice in the last 6 years. I think they have a serious step up in competition the next two weeks, and if they spot Aggie or Alabama 3 score leads at half, I don't think it will end well for the Vols.

A lot of things were atrocious in the last minute of game time of the UGA/UT game. How in the world do you let a WR behind you if you're UT? And what a ridiculously bad penalty by the player that wasn't even on the field for the play to cost UGA 15 yards on the kickoff. And why don't coaches rush more than 3 DL on an obvious Hail Mary situation?

I watched some of the Vandy/UF game, but my eyes started bleeding. That's not good defense, it's just really bad offense. Florida didn't deserve the cover, but should have had it but a fumbled snap at the 1 yard line was pretty much a microcosm of this game's offensive ineptitude. So was Vandy punting with 90 seconds left.

Didn't watch much of the other games except bits and pieces. AU is really good at beating up the shitty teams. But I think Vandy is the only guaranteed win from here on out. And Alabama A&M or whoever they play in the SEC/SOCON challenge in late November

Good for coach O and LSU finding some offensive success. Maybe the problem is Fournette?

Kind of blah efforts from aTm and Alabama, not much to learn from those I don't think. For Alabama, Hurts made some nice downfield throws, which is something he needs to improve on if he has any plans on leading the team to a championship. He'll need to pass us to a win at some point. The running game is starting to come together, which was a concern. I know it's Kent St and UK, but the confidence that comes from successful reps is a plus.

Nice to see Ole Miss have an effective run game. I still have them as the second highest rated (PR) team in the conference and if they continue to play well, they may not lose again
 
Agree what I watched of Ole Miss, they were definitely doing a better job of run blocking and getting the running game going finally....
 
Alabama has struggled with Arkansas the last two years. Part of it has been when we played them in the schedule. Last year was the week after the UGA win, and 2014 was the week following the loss to Ole Miss. Both of those games were sloppy, slow paced and generally boring games. At least this year I know we aren't coming off an emotional game, but there is the trip to Knoxville on deck. I was a little surprised to see it open as high as it did.

AU vs Miss St has been close nearly every game I can remember. Wouldn't expect anything different this year. AU's offense has only looked good against Ark St and ULM. It was pretty bad against LSU, aTm and Clemson. I haven't watched much of State this season, but I can't imagine they are as good on defense as those 3. But they really get up for this game and I expect it to be an ugly low-scoring game

I think Aggie throttles UT, but the fact that UT is 5-0 when they could easily be 1-4 or 2-3 has to mean something. Impressive that they continue to fight back, but as I mentioned earlier, huge step up in class this week and next. And the recent past has me gunshy about being too excited about aTm once it gets to October

UK/VU, I hope nobody actually has to watch this shit show

UGA needs a win in the worst way. SC is not good, but this has been a weird series over the last 7/8 years. Wouldn't be surprised to see this one be close

Not sure how to take LSU's performance this past week. It was obviously a great performance and a much needed release for the fans, but I think they are closer to what they've been in the first 4 games than this past Saturday. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'll be an interested observer this weekend. Not sure I'll get involved though
 
Aubbie=LSU to me.

QB and Gus the problem.
But the defense can keep it close enough for that one magical play.
 
LSU @ UF (Noon) PICK/46.5 (Assuming Appleby)
Auburn @ Miss St (Noon) PICK/51
Tennessee @ aTm (3:30) -10/55.5
Vandy @ UK (4:00) -2.5/45
Bama @ Arkansas (7:00) +16.5/48
UGA @ USCe (7:30) +4.5/46.5

 
Thoughts on UF/LSU:

LSU has won the last 3. I was able to find the condensed version of this game from last year and re-watched it in like 40 minutes. I had forgotten how weird it was. Brandon Harris had what had to be the best throwing game of his career where he went over 200 and 2TD - most came on a flea flicker and a broken play TD hail mary before half. The big difference was the run game - LSU really mauled an excellent UF defense and Fournette was a beast he went for 180. The fact that Harris had the best game of his career probably helped while the fact UF had Treon Harris under center prob helped to explain why they ran 31 times for 55 yards. There was a 13 yard UF TD drive set up by a muffed punt, a punt return for TD and fake FG for TD and the aforementioned broken play hail mary to end the 1H. 33 FD, 750 yards, 122 plays but somehow ends 35-28 LSU. Line was LSU -6/43.5 and both were top 10.

Florida has not looked good the past couple games. They have been out-physicaled the last two weeks, consequently, both against conference foes. I've been extremely unimpressed by Nuss' play calling since they went to the break in Knoxville. I can forgive them for puttering through last week as the spot was awful but they have such an athleticism edge that I really didn't see play out much in the game which is concerning. They ran for 2.6 ypc last week and 3.4 the week before and will have a stiffer test here against a team they couldn't move it on the ground against at all last year. They are going to need more from the QB and a lot more from the coaches game plan. I'll keep an eye on Del Rio's status as the week goes on although I really don't know how much I would adjust for him vs AA at this point.

LSU really put a beat down on Mizzou. Much was made of the changes they were going to implement on offense but I didn't really notice too much different from a schematic standpoint they just executed. Maybe they passed a bit more early to set up the run but once they realized that Mizzou had no shot at stopping the run it was business as usual. I think they were certainly inspired and at this point the Coach O bump is a real thing. Eitling has certainly been an improvement and the experience of the roadie at Auburn will definitely help as a night game there is about as tough a venue as there is in the SEC. As good as the LSU offense was I was more impressed with the defense - Aranda had a great plan and they executed really well - the coverage was outstanding aside from a few missed opportunities and bad throws by Lock early on. Just a really, really solid game. Thing is. it was their first good game this year so I struggle to make them the favorite although I have felt some turmoil over that as they look to hold a lot of advantages. I don't know that I trust any QB in this game for either team but I do trust the LSU run game - with or without LF. I think that is probably the difference in the game. Has all the makings on paper to be a low scoring game but so did last year and the year before too, I believe, and there were quite a few points scored. Saw BOL had LSU -2.5 but will wait to see what BM hangs once a LDR status is confirmed.
 
I will be on Auburn, and if State gets the cash this week, then I anticipate going max bet on BYU next Friday.
 
I will be on Auburn, and if State gets the cash this week, then I anticipate going max bet on BYU next Friday.

I can't quite figure AU out. They've played 3 games against quality opponents, going 1-2, but were somewhat competitive in all 3. But although competitive, they didn't look especially good in any of them, including the win against LSU. They've blown out two bad teams. Miss St falls somewhere in between. This might be a game where both teams find some success moving the ball and scoring some points. I can't call it anything other than a coin flip as far who wins, but if the total comes out relatively low, I'll look hard at the over. I could see both teams getting into the mid to high 20's here
 
Both auburn and State avg 6.0 per play and give up 5.2. Give AU the special teams edge and the -2 seems fair. My total would be 48 fwiw.

imo the Aggies injuries were a bigger factor than I anticipated and Carolinas defense played well. SC better stick with that backup QB if they have any damn sense

GL this week
 
Both auburn and State avg 6.0 per play and give up 5.2. Give AU the special teams edge and the -2 seems fair. My total would be 48 fwiw.

imo the Aggies injuries were a bigger factor than I anticipated and Carolinas defense played well. SC better stick with that backup QB if they have any damn sense

GL this week

Cowbells probably good for a couple of points though, so right back at PK. AU's first road game too. But early kick usually favors the road team, and if anyone is used to playing the 11 AM SEC game, it's AU
 
Cowbells probably good for a couple of points though, so right back at PK. AU's first road game too. But early kick usually favors the road team, and if anyone is used to playing the 11 AM SEC game, it's AU

No zinger there?haha
 
I can't quite figure AU out. They've played 3 games against quality opponents, going 1-2, but were somewhat competitive in all 3. But although competitive, they didn't look especially good in any of them, including the win against LSU. They've blown out two bad teams. Miss St falls somewhere in between. This might be a game where both teams find some success moving the ball and scoring some points. I can't call it anything other than a coin flip as far who wins, but if the total comes out relatively low, I'll look hard at the over. I could see both teams getting into the mid to high 20's here

Mullen is a good coach, but his failure to land elite talent has caught up to him. Auburn is far from good, but their roster is more talented than State's at virtually every position. I give Auburn the nod at OL, DL, CB, S, RB, and ST. QB is close, WR is a wash, and State has better LBs. Also, "must wins" don't always equal "will wins," but if Gus loses this one, then he's done. There aren't many wins left on Auburn's schedule. It's a small to medium wager for me, but I think Auburn gets it done...and if they don't then BYU will get my money back.
 
Cowbells probably good for a couple of points though, so right back at PK. AU's first road game too. But early kick usually favors the road team, and if anyone is used to playing the 11 AM SEC game, it's AU

fair enough and have zero interest in the side. Agree with your over thought but not if my total is right. Unless they screw up some totals I will be SEC actionless this week. I don't like any of them. In general I think the books are dialed in and am hoping for some soft fcs numbers or I might be fishing this Saturday.
 
My head tells me that Tennessee can't keep coming back in these games, but I've watched AU do it twice in the last 6 years. I think they have a serious step up in competition the next two weeks, and if they spot Aggie or Alabama 3 score leads at half, I don't think it will end well for the Vols.

A lot of things were atrocious in the last minute of game time of the UGA/UT game. How in the world do you let a WR behind you if you're UT? And what a ridiculously bad penalty by the player that wasn't even on the field for the play to cost UGA 15 yards on the kickoff. And why don't coaches rush more than 3 DL on an obvious Hail Mary situation?

I watched some of the Vandy/UF game, but my eyes started bleeding. That's not good defense, it's just really bad offense. Florida didn't deserve the cover, but should have had it but a fumbled snap at the 1 yard line was pretty much a microcosm of this game's offensive ineptitude. So was Vandy punting with 90 seconds left.

Didn't watch much of the other games except bits and pieces. AU is really good at beating up the shitty teams. But I think Vandy is the only guaranteed win from here on out. And Alabama A&M or whoever they play in the SEC/SOCON challenge in late November

Good for coach O and LSU finding some offensive success. Maybe the problem is Fournette?

Kind of blah efforts from aTm and Alabama, not much to learn from those I don't think. For Alabama, Hurts made some nice downfield throws, which is something he needs to improve on if he has any plans on leading the team to a championship. He'll need to pass us to a win at some point. The running game is starting to come together, which was a concern. I know it's Kent St and UK, but the confidence that comes from successful reps is a plus.

Nice to see Ole Miss have an effective run game. I still have them as the second highest rated (PR) team in the conference and if they continue to play well, they may not lose again

the problems are gone. it was fun to watch and expect a much better result going forward, but the games get real tough

i thibk it was obvious LF was a bit banged up this season and shoulda sat some more.......with Guice, I aint that worried
 
Per McElwain, Luke Del Rio practicing with the 1st team offense this week
 
Mullen is a good coach, but his failure to land elite talent has caught up to him. Auburn is far from good, but their roster is more talented than State's at virtually every position. I give Auburn the nod at OL, DL, CB, S, RB, and ST. QB is close, WR is a wash, and State has better LBs. Also, "must wins" don't always equal "will wins," but if Gus loses this one, then he's done. There aren't many wins left on Auburn's schedule. It's a small to medium wager for me, but I think Auburn gets it done...and if they don't then BYU will get my money back.

Wonder how much Prescott was hiding as far as teams overall ability. He was that special at QB for them.

As for must wins ... show me the miss st path to bowl eligibility if they drop this game. Their last four games are TAMU (far tougher out than aub as we know), at bama, vs arkansas (again a tougher out than aub), and at Ole Miss in the egg bowl. Throw in they have to beat the fcs, uk and byu in provo to even have one of those wins matter. This team could potentially finish with 4 wins if they are losing to auburn at home.

http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ufj5P3W7Jw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
Do NOT count out the Vols! I'll be back with more thoughts. A little tied up at work today
Go ahead and put the House on aTm to cover the 1H & Vols to cover the 2H

i didn't look in the week 5 thread after my post on twinke for the LSU record. But I tried to look up individual SEC gm stats/ records and was unsuccessful.
Anybody got a good site for SEC records? I found a lot of season records on sec.com but not individual games
 
Here is what I've got this week. I may need to start an ACC thread haha

SEC:

USCe+8.5
aTm -5
Vandy/Kentucky UNDER 51
LSU/Florida OVER 40.5

Other:

Virginia Tech +3.5
GT +8
Duke -4
Syracuse +3
WKU/LT OVER 65.5
Air Force/Wyoming UNDER 57
FSU/Miami UNDER 65.5
 
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Here is what I've got this week. I may need to start an ACC thread haha

SEC:

USCe+8.5
aTm -5
Vandy/Kentucky UNDER 51
LSU/Florida OVER 40.5

Other:

Virginia Tech +3.5
GT +8
Duke -4
Syracuse +3
WKU/LT OVER 65.5
Air Force/Wyoming UNDER 57
FSU/Miami UNDER 65.5

Funny you mention that, but I feel like the last several years I've done much better betting other conferences, namely the B1G, than the SEC. Maybe it's because I don't have any inherent biases in other leagues. I probably always underrate AU and UT and look for reasons to bet against them
 
Funny you mention that, but I feel like the last several years I've done much better betting other conferences, namely the B1G, than the SEC. Maybe it's because I don't have any inherent biases in other leagues. I probably always underrate AU and UT and look for reasons to bet against them

In general, I think it's a hard league to handicap. It may be easier for those of that don't have those biases you mentioned.

One thing worth noting is this hurricane and how it may impact the atlantic coast this weekend. Still a lot of uncertainty at this point but the forecasts as of this moment indicate rain in the carolinas starting early saturday and moving up the coast to pittsburgh by evening. From a personal standpoint, Duke and Syracuse get a whole lot less attractive if wind and rain are a factor. One of the potential pitfalls of betting openers.
 
Wonder how much Prescott was hiding as far as teams overall ability. He was that special at QB for them.

As for must wins ... show me the miss st path to bowl eligibility if they drop this game. Their last four games are TAMU (far tougher out than aub as we know), at bama, vs arkansas (again a tougher out than aub), and at Ole Miss in the egg bowl. Throw in they have to beat the fcs, uk and byu in provo to even have one of those wins matter. This team could potentially finish with 4 wins if they are losing to auburn at home.

http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ufj5P3W7Jw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>

I don't think State bowls, but the difference is that Mullen doesn't have to bowl to keep his job this year. I think the USA loss made State's ceiling 5 wins, but they can't fire Mullen after 5 straight bowl appearances. Auburn on the other hand....

Can I go ahead and say Mullen to Penn State? Mullen to Penn State.
 
A few LSU thoughts/notes:

The biggest change Orgeron made last week was to the practice schedule and routine. There have always been rumors of Miles beating the hell out of the team in game weeks and it seems to have been worse when his back was against the wall. There was an article written Friday prior to Auburn that mentioned Miles had put the team through a 3 hour workout in pads on Wednesday.

I have no reason to doubt it as the reporter was known to have sources on staff, and has since been hired by Orgeron in some sort of administrative capacity. I think he's basically O's personal PR guy. Players have also confirmed they spent more time in the film room and less on the practice field than before, and that the practices were more up tempo and efficient.

I suspect the offensive output was a combination of players having better legs than they would have under the prior weekly routine, starting the same OL combination in consecutive weeks for the first time this season, Missouri's front being outmatched, and some subtle tweaks to the playcalling or game plan.

RT Weathersby will be out for a third straight week, LG Clapp left the game Saturday and it sounds like he'll miss this week also. He has been playing on a bum leg and shoulder all season. C Pocic wasn't practicing as late as Wednesday last week and is playing hobbled, while his backup was ejected in the 4Q Saturday and will have to sit this week. I think LSU is appealing because he was ejected after off setting unsportsmanlike penalties between he and a Missouri player which was ruled their second of the game, with the first occurring in a dustup following the last play of the 1st half when neither were on the field. Apprently the officials called off setting penalties on that one also, but instead of singling anyone out they ruled that everyone on each team was tagged with their first unsportsmanlike penalty.

It sounds like Fournette will be out again. Looking ahead to Southern Miss next week for those who want to jump on it Sunday, I wouldn't be surprised if as many as 5 offensive starters sit to try and get as healthy as possible prior to Ole Miss the following week.
 
Thoughts on USCe/UGA:

I have lived in Georgia for long enough to know two things - Carolina at night is a super tough place to play and beating UGA is arguably the most important game for USCe every season (Clemson 1a/1b). The situation couldn't really be any better than this, IMO. UGA off of a sleepwalk 2 point win against Nicholls, which consequently came after the emotional opener at the dome against UNC, then they get trashed against Ole Miss, lead by 3 scores and 58 minutes against a bitter rival only to have their hearts ripped out on a fluke finish that crescendo'd with the Hail Mary. Our good friend, clowncar, taught me prob 7 years ago to look for the team that has a third consecutive emotional game and fade them. I think many NBA cappers understand this psychology and element of handicapping than most NCAAF guys. I have absolutely no faith that UGA will be prepared here and I can say with a high level of confidence that USCe will be ready. I've seen good teams go in there and get beat numerous times by inferior Carolina teams. The thing is, in most years, the lack of developed talent at Carolina would make them a pretty good candidate to get steamrolled by a team that recruits like UGA. Pretty sure that's what happened last year - they just didn't have the horses and UGA rolled them 52-20. The problem is, UGA has what is their least talented team in a decade. My dad was actually at the UGA last week and was sitting next to two NFL scouts and there was only one guy both of them were there to see - Nick Chubb, who had 1 carry in the game.. So there are a few intangibles I really like in favor of the home team.

If Carolina hadn't showed me the improvement they did the past two weeks I wouldn't be near as excited to play them in this spot but they had a very real chance to beat aTm last week. Without going through the whole game, Carolina missed 2 FG with one of the conf's better kickers, muffed a punt late that led to a Ags FG or they would have had a decent shot at the outright win. Again, situationally, Ags off of Arky and before UT, it was a nightmare spot for aTm who elected to sit not just 4 starters but "four impact players" as Sumlin called them in his post game presser. As hard of a time as USCe had with the Ags front 7, and they did give them fits, they actually finished with 378 yards and and identical 4.9 ypp that the Ags had. Just for perspective, aTm avg'd an incredible 9.8 ypp against Arky! So there were certainly a few things pointing in their favor but what impressed me even more is that 2/3 of their best offensive players were out for this game both WR's Samuel and Edwards. Both have uncertain status' for this game and I bet it hoping to get at least one of them and both would be outstanding. In regards to what I think UGA will try to do on offense is more running the football like we saw against the Vols in the 2H. Credit Vols DC for adjusting at the half, they ran a ton of cover 2 in the 1H and UGA gashed them and then they brought some extra help into the box and UGA ran for less than 50 yards, I think it was somewhere around 30. The WR showed again they can't get separation against what I think is an average AT BEST Vols secondary. The were able to exploit some weaknesses with the Vols LB and safeties in coverage as their fresh TE had a monster game. It was feast or famine for them. The problem that USCe ran into last week and prob ultimately the reason they lost was they couldnt get off the field defensively on 3rd downs as the depleted Ags WR group was too much for them. Good news here is that weakness is highly unlikely to be exploited by UGA. Lot of tape now on how UGA wants to run both Harrien and Michel on the inside zone and good tape on what UT did to defend it. Chubb may give it a go although I maintain it's unlikely he tries to do much more before UF. USCe is far from an offesnive juggernaut and I'm hoping that they can stay out of their own way as much as anything in this game. As I mentioned before, the Ags hellacious front 7 (even without Garrett) just wrecked them. UGA has a lousy DL and front 7 so it should be some nice relief for them. Carolina went with both QB's and McIlwain allows them to run the zone read and just makes things harder on defenses from a prep and play standpoint, according to Muschamp, but I get the sense he and Orth will split time here and just pay to their strengths. Orth came in late last game as he is the more polished passer and helps them out in the vertical passing game - getting Samuel and/or Edwards back would help a ton. I do like that B Mac is mobile and that is something that both Dobbs and many other QB I won't name have given Kirby's defense problems in the past. As far as ST goes, BIG edge to USCe although they were poor last game. UGA is one of worst in nation on ST. Their kicker who wears coke bottle lenses on his glasses, Rodrigo Blankenship, is the son of my former high school english teacher who is the biggest dickhead you'll ever meet. It's vindicating for me to see Rodrigo not be able to kick it past the 20 on kickoffs and look so inconsistent on FG's. In what should be a low scoring, tight game, I really like the edge for USCe. I'll call it 23-20
 
Wonder how much Prescott was hiding as far as teams overall ability. He was that special at QB for them.

As for must wins ... show me the miss st path to bowl eligibility if they drop this game. Their last four games are TAMU (far tougher out than aub as we know), at bama, vs arkansas (again a tougher out than aub), and at Ole Miss in the egg bowl. Throw in they have to beat the fcs, uk and byu in provo to even have one of those wins matter. This team could potentially finish with 4 wins if they are losing to auburn at home.

http://<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3Ufj5P3W7Jw" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe>
LMFAO that is so great.....
 
The thing is, in most years, the lack of developed talent at Carolina would make them a pretty good candidate to get steamrolled by a team that recruits like UGA. Pretty sure that's what happened last year - they just didn't have the horses and UGA rolled them 52-20.

What happened last year is a Georgia team that had been beaten too many times by Spurrier's best teams finally had a decisive edge and took out their frustration on the chickens.
 
TAMU seems a little high even if TENN can't run with all the horseshoes hiding where the sun don't shine
 
TAMU seems a little high even if TENN can't run with all the horseshoes hiding where the sun don't shine

Playing teams from the SEC West hasn't been pleasant for Jones and Vols. Losers of 11 straight, 2-9 ATS, outscored on average 38-14. We saw some of the regression on their fumble luck last week and expect that to continue down the stretch. I mentioned it a few weeks ago but the odds they recovered the amount of fumbles in their games so far this season was 323/1 so I'm pretty confident in saying that goes the other way on them sooner rather than later. UT yardage disparities this season +27, -70, +86, +96, -35. These guys just aren't that good. The Auburn team that did this same thing you could at least point to a couple superstar players and things they did really, really well - what does UT do really, really well? I'll have more thoughts later this week but I think they get whipped this week and next.
 
I will be on Auburn, and if State gets the cash this week, then I anticipate going max bet on BYU next Friday.

What are your thoughts on what you've seen from State thus far? I feel less confident in my read on them than prob any team in conf right now. I can't find a UMASS replay anywhere either
 
LSU backup C Andy Dodd and the Mizzou DL that was ejected will not have to sit this week. That's big for LSU, as previously mentioned Pocic is playing hurt but is also the third tackle currently with Weathersby out.

My WatchESPN app has the State-UMass game fwiw.
 
What are your thoughts on what you've seen from State thus far? I feel less confident in my read on them than prob any team in conf right now. I can't find a UMASS replay anywhere either


It's apparent that Mullen didn't expect to be in Starkville at this point, and the roster reflects that. It's easy to say that they miss Dak, and they do, but their QB play is way down their list of problems. Their OL is awful. They don't have an SEC RB. Their secondary is really bad. Their DL lacks a true pass rusher. Their LBs are solid, but they aren't ideal for the scheme (4th DC in 4 years, I believe.) They have some talented WRs, but Fitz doesn't generally have much time to get them the ball.

Here is their OL in action against UMass:

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Playing teams from the SEC West hasn't been pleasant for Jones and Vols. Losers of 11 straight, 2-9 ATS, outscored on average 38-14. We saw some of the regression on their fumble luck last week and expect that to continue down the stretch. I mentioned it a few weeks ago but the odds they recovered the amount of fumbles in their games so far this season was 323/1 so I'm pretty confident in saying that goes the other way on them sooner rather than later. UT yardage disparities this season +27, -70, +86, +96, -35. These guys just aren't that good. The Auburn team that did this same thing you could at least point to a couple superstar players and things they did really, really well - what does UT do really, really well? I'll have more thoughts later this week but I think they get whipped this week and next.

i agree about the fumble luck to a certain degree; they aren't as likely to recover 100% of their fumbles going forward, but it doesn't mean that every single one will bounce the other way all of a sudden. Shitty evidence, but that ball in the end zone with 2 1/2 minutes left didn't exactly bounce out of Vol arms for what looked to be a back-breaking loss for my +3.5

I also caution using stats from previous TENN teams because they were talented but not on this level, i also think Butch has grown as a coach just this season.

They've certainly had a tougher time than expected in all their games and that's generally bad news because you rarely win all close games over the course of a 12-game season, but i've made my thoughts known that catching a full TD seems awfully generous
 
South Carolina governor Nikki Haley says she doesn't see a way that SC and UGA play Saturday in Columbia
 
you guys sold on this Bama offense yet? Not sure I am......I haven't watched every game fully, but something aint totally right
 
Quick stat on Derek Barnett.
#Vols DE Derek Barnett has played 18 SEC games in his career: He has 32.5 TFLs and 21 sacks in those games.

cant wait to watch both DLs play this weekend. Garrett & Barnett should put on a show.
 
Amazing how I picked this weekend to bet every game possible in Florida and Carolina while a hurricane is en route.

Thoughts on Alabama/Arkansas:

Going back to last year's game, Bama was -15 at home with a total of 48. It was a really ugly game as games tend to be when these two have met the past couple years. It was 7-3 Arky at HT and 10-7 to start the 4Q after Ridley caught a long bomb from Coker. Arkansas fails on a fake punt and Bama goes up 17-7. Brandon Allen throws an INT and Bama kicks a FG to go up 20-7. Cyrus Jones has a huge punt return to set up a 15 yard Bama TD to go up 27-7. Arkansas strikes back for a backdoor cover on a crazy broken play TD with under 2 minutes to play for a 27-14 final. There were only 600 yards total in the game and Arkansas was held to 9 first downs, 44 yards rushing on 25 carries with 54 of Arky's 220 yards coming on the aforementioned garbage time TD.

The Alabama defense has definitely adapted and evolved over the past several years and is better equipped to defend all the spread teams they face but this is style the type of offense that Bama is built to suffocate. For anyone that takes time to read any of my thoughts on games it is no secret that I love the Hogs and their offense but I think they are going to have another really tough day here. It's pretty safe to say their offense last season was a good bit better than where their current offense is at and that is entirely due to the fact their OL hasn't figured it out yet. I took the Hogs against aTm and while they did leave at least 2 TD on the field in that 21 point loss, their OL was whipped pretty good all day by the Ags DL. They did have 500 yards offense but it took almost 90 plays and their success rate on offense was 35% (natl avg 40%). Allen was nearly decapitated on just about every drive. Arkansas had the ball for 40 minutes in the game and that is the type of TOP that is ideal for them but the problem against Alabama is that Alabama does everything they want to do except they do it a lot better with a lot better football players. The year before Bama snuck out with a 14-13 win in a game that was super ugly following the Bama loss to Ole Miss. Arky had better success offensively that game they had 337 yards on 79 plays and rushed for 89 yards on 2.3 ypc. Alabama was held to 227 yards and really couldn't run it on Arky that year either. Philosophically, Bama is just so different this year with the running QB I can't quite figure how that factors into this game. I don't have a ton of faith in Alabama getting much past 30 in this game and on the other hand I have a very hard time making a case for Arkansas getting more than 14. I don't really like the Bama offense right now and that could be because it's just so different than what I'm used to and I can't figure out why we put all this pressure on a true freshman. I'll say this the Bama OL is down this year so far, not near as drastic a drop as Arky OL, but it's down. I do like the potential upside for the Bama offense as they are young and inexperienced in several areas and have still managed to avg 40+ ppg. Arky WR Keon Hatcher is questionable as is Bama WR Ardarius Stewart and that puts a lot more pressure on Morgan and Ridley, respectively, and while I have full faith Ridley is going to beat just about any CB in the country regularly, I cant say I foresee Morgan creating consistent separation unless the run game and play action is really cooking. Side note, Bama OLB Tim Williams was suspended for the 1H of Kentucky game and once he came in I've never seen a Bama D lineman so dominant and explosive in my entire time of being a fan - he was motivated and I hope that carries over as Bama fan but not as an Austin Allen fan. Will likely be another Bama opponent TT under for me, per usual. 30-13
 
Twink, no, I'm not. I kinda talked about that little in my above post.

ProV - That is an insane stat
 
It's apparent that Mullen didn't expect to be in Starkville at this point, and the roster reflects that. It's easy to say that they miss Dak, and they do, but their QB play is way down their list of problems. Their OL is awful. They don't have an SEC RB. Their secondary is really bad. Their DL lacks a true pass rusher. Their LBs are solid, but they aren't ideal for the scheme (4th DC in 4 years, I believe.) They have some talented WRs, but Fitz doesn't generally have much time to get them the ball.

Here is their OL in action against UMass:

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I think he turned his ankle, but sure looked like the center gave a beautiful performance of the "lookout" block.
Must have turned down his friend request.
 
Crimson, I was going to mention if you didn't about Tim Williams last week. I'm sure some of it was the opponent, but that's the best he's looked since the Michigan St game last year, and probably ever. Maybe the arrest got his attention and he realizes how easily he could be throwing away a big payday by being stupid

I think the offense is kind of like it was this time last year. Last season, we looked very disjointed as if we were trying to figure out what we were going to be. Coker had not hit on a single long TD pass until the UGA game, which was game 5 last season. When he started connecting on those, our offense all the sudden became pretty dynamic and Lane Kiffin discovered we had Derrick Henry on the roster. I think we have been searching for our identity so far, and there are things from the UK game that lead me to believe we are close. One was Hurts, like Coker before him, finally converting some down field passes. Seems that Hurts and Ridley in particular are finally getting the timing down. Also, there was a concentrated effort to get the ball in Ridley's hands no matter what. Similar to 2014 with Amari. The injury to Stewart I think has been part of the problem, as well as the revolving door at RB. But with Stewart coming back soon and looking like we are settling into a Damien Harris/Joshua Jacobs 1-2 at RB, we may finally see some consistency. We better, because we will need it. Luckily, we have scored a non-offensve TD 7 or 8 games in a row, so that helps
 
Crimson, I was going to mention if you didn't about Tim Williams last week. I'm sure some of it was the opponent, but that's the best he's looked since the Michigan St game last year, and probably ever. Maybe the arrest got his attention and he realizes how easily he could be throwing away a big payday by being stupid

I think the offense is kind of like it was this time last year. Last season, we looked very disjointed as if we were trying to figure out what we were going to be. Coker had not hit on a single long TD pass until the UGA game, which was game 5 last season. When he started connecting on those, our offense all the sudden became pretty dynamic and Lane Kiffin discovered we had Derrick Henry on the roster. I think we have been searching for our identity so far, and there are things from the UK game that lead me to believe we are close. One was Hurts, like Coker before him, finally converting some down field passes. Seems that Hurts and Ridley in particular are finally getting the timing down. Also, there was a concentrated effort to get the ball in Ridley's hands no matter what. Similar to 2014 with Amari. The injury to Stewart I think has been part of the problem, as well as the revolving door at RB. But with Stewart coming back soon and looking like we are settling into a Damien Harris/Joshua Jacobs 1-2 at RB, we may finally see some consistency. We better, because we will need it. Luckily, we have scored a non-offensve TD 7 or 8 games in a row, so that helps

The thing that kills me about the whole Tim Williams deal was that he picked what has to be the absolute dumbest place to sit and smoke weed and tote a pistol. Publix is better lit than the stadium and has prob the same amount of police patrol. I made plenty of bad decisions while in school there particularly when it comes to late night Messy fries but this was a head scratcher.

I have really liked Jacobs at RB. I can't figure out what's going on with Bo - I was glad he scored and he looks like Henry with his upright style, size and dreads but he has been a total non-factor. Funny considering 5dimes had odds on him pre-season for Heisman but didn't for Lamar Jackson.. I'm just hoping Stewart is back for Tenn and aTm - this game would be great but prob not as necessary.
 
The thing that kills me about the whole Tim Williams deal was that he picked what has to be the absolute dumbest place to sit and smoke weed and tote a pistol. Publix is better lit than the stadium and has prob the same amount of police patrol. I made plenty of bad decisions while in school there particularly when it comes to late night Messy fries but this was a head scratcher.

I have really liked Jacobs at RB. I can't figure out what's going on with Bo - I was glad he scored and he looks like Henry with his upright style, size and dreads but he has been a total non-factor. Funny considering 5dimes had odds on him pre-season for Heisman but didn't for Lamar Jackson.. I'm just hoping Stewart is back for Tenn and aTm - this game would be great but prob not as necessary.

this....I mean I thought he would just be the heir apparent......and then that 5 star WR(Roberts maybe?....name escapes me)...kid doesn't even play huh?
 
Think you're talking about Robert Foster. He was the #1 guy last year, but hurt his shoulder against Ole Miss and was out for the season. From what I've been told, his work ethic took a nosedive during his rehab and he's been passed by Ridley and Stewart, with Cam Sims coming on strong. I think the Gehrig Dieter experiment has been a surprise. He led the nation with fewest drops per attempt at Bowling Green, now he can't catch water if he fell out of a boat. As far as Bo, he's had some major injuries to deal with that slowed his development, but I think he's in a pretty similar spot Henry was at the same point in their careers. Too early to call him a bust IMO. But unlike Henry, Bo is not a model citizen or teammate, so who knows what will happen. Especially with Najee Harris getting to town in January

And CK, the only thing I can think is that those Publix chicken fingers were calling his name. Glad he took Cris Carter's advice and had a fall guy with him
 
Thoughts on Tenn/aTm:

Ags coming off a snoozer win in Columbia and Vols coming off the Dobbsnail boot hail mary win. Situationally, it's a brilliant spot for aTm. I do my best to handicap the emotional ebbs and flows of games and seasons and I think this is a super tall task for the Vols to respond after what has to be the two successive most emotionally draining games of prob any team this season. Now they go on the road and play a team that is better than all 5 of the teams they have struggled with this season. I mentioned it yesterday but the Vols have been dominated by the SEC West in recent years as have most teams from the East when they cross over. Under Sumlin, the Ags haven't been great in conf at home:

2012: 1-2
2013: 2-2
2014: 0-3
2015: 2-2

There isn't a signature win for him at home but this is a pretty nice spot to get it. I think the Ags defense, particularly the front 4, can really give UT problems. Here are Dobbs' numbers for the season on passing downs:

UGA - 4/9 44 yards 1 INT 4.89 yd/at
UF - 7/15 146 yards 1 INT 9.73 yd/at
Ohio - 9/10 80 yards 0 INT 4.15 yd/at
VT - 4/10 23 yards 1 INT 2.30 yd/at
App St - 9/16 97 yards 0 INT 6.03 yd/at

33/73 (45%) 390 yards 3 INT 5.34 yd/at

A passing down is defined as 2nd down and 8+ or 3rd/4th down and 5+. Here is what that boils down to for me - aTm is 27th nationally in overall efficiency defense. That means statistically they are going to consistently limit your successful plays and force you into passing downs and that is where Dobbs is going to be asked to beat them - I don't think that is happening. The UT offense took another blow last week with Jalen Hurd suffering a "lower extremity injury". He missed most the 2H last week and Kamara filled in nicely. I actually think Kamara is a better back but not having the potential full compliment and ability to spell one another makes things potentially that much harder on Dobbs. Hurd gets 20 carries a game and he reportedly was "full go" on Monday practice but his effectiveness is still TBD. It's funny looking at the Vols advanced stats as they are somehow inexplicably (to me) rated 3rd nationally in s&p+ pass offense. Watch any game they play aside from the 2H of UF game and the hail mary last week and you've think you were on acid when you read that metric. Their OL has been better with Chance Hall getting back at RT on the OL so some of the terrible mistakes and execution we saw in the first 3 games may not flare up as much moving forward - that's something to continue to watch. So I don't see the Vols having a lot of success offensively.

On the other side of the ball, aTm is coming off their worst offensive performance of the year scoring 24 in Columbia at just under 5 ypp. For the season, aTm ranks 24th nationally in ypp at 6.4 and the 22nd ranked s&p+ offense. Their ypp outputs have been 4.96, 9.86, 5.39, 7.60 and 5.10. Last game they sat two of their best WR Noil and Seals Jones and they didn't play near as wel without them. Sumlin is like a vault when it comes to disclosing injuries so I really have no idea whether or not to expect them in this game and if neither can go that would be a huge blow. Last game Kirk got 16 targets, 3rd highest of any receiver that week, and had 12 catches for just 61 yards. The short passing game was an emphasis whether that was by design on inability, I'm not too sure. I'm on record saying that I have concerns over Knight as a passer but his WR around him definitely help mask some of that while simultaneously keep their numbers lower than they should be if Austin Allen,for example, were their QB. Aside from Knight being a polar opposite personality wise from their QB's from last year, their run game is what has really helped propel this offense. Knight runs really well and Williams has emerged as one of the more impressive young backs in the nation. One thing that you saw UGA have tons of success against this Vols defense last week was the inside zone play. That bodes well for the Ags, especially given the fact they can and will run zone read with Knight being a legit threat to pull it and run, unlike Eason who is not that type of QB. The Vols did well keeping VT's mobile QB Evans to low rushing numbers but at the expense of other players making plays as they had 400 yards offense. If aTm gets both Noil and Seals-Jones back I think they could really have a big day against this depleted Vols secondary. The DL is outstanding for the Vols but everything behind them is average at best given their injury woes. The Vols may get back Reeves-Maybin and possibly Kirkland both of which they desperately need back. Aside and/or a part of/from the odds defying fumble luck Tennessee has enjoyed they have enjoyed the bets field position of any team in the country averaging starting field position at the 37 compared to their opponents at the 26. Statistically, that may not seem like much but using data from all 2013 CFB games, teams that had a 10-15 yard field position margin range won 87% of the time by an avg margin of 19.9 ppg. (Even more odds-defying statistical evidence that Tennesee is not very good sneaking by every week with this kind of fumble luck and FP edges). Both teams are top 25 ST units and their return games are legit threats to score. To summarize I think the balance of the Ags offense, strength of their defense and the emotional factors point toward a double digit loss for the Vols. In my opinion, if you are betting Tennessee in this game or any other this season, I would plan on seeing some major regression with the fumble luck - if they start turning it over this game and next they will get trounced. 34-20
 
agree on your thoughts....what is plan B is Hurts get Hurt?

Saban in talks with Purdue about a trade. Scarborough for their 2nd string QB

At this point it's Bateman. Similar skill set with a lot less talent. I hope we don't have to find out.
 
Think you're talking about Robert Foster. He was the #1 guy last year, but hurt his shoulder against Ole Miss and was out for the season. From what I've been told, his work ethic took a nosedive during his rehab and he's been passed by Ridley and Stewart, with Cam Sims coming on strong. I think the Gehrig Dieter experiment has been a surprise. He led the nation with fewest drops per attempt at Bowling Green, now he can't catch water if he fell out of a boat. As far as Bo, he's had some major injuries to deal with that slowed his development, but I think he's in a pretty similar spot Henry was at the same point in their careers. Too early to call him a bust IMO. But unlike Henry, Bo is not a model citizen or teammate, so who knows what will happen. Especially with Najee Harris getting to town in January

And CK, the only thing I can think is that those Publix chicken fingers were calling his name. Glad he took Cris Carter's advice and had a fall guy with him

gotta be
 
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