Worth looks on the over 4 pt spreads.
MTSU - Marshall has been yardage challenged this year, 443, 367, 324, 401 to moh, eastern kentucky, ncsu and fau. MTSU gave up 346 to vandy, 484 to uga, and 426 to fau, which are pretty good results when looking at those teams vs other competition. Not much reason to think Marshall puts up a number in this game. In addition, MTSU has turned into a very slow paced team compared to past versions which will make for less possessions in the game that tends to lend itself to an underdog play. Revenge game from last year where Marshall put up a deceiving number of pts due to MTSU turnovers (set up inside 20 for a score, int return for another score). A little momentum from last week. Marshall win over MOH seems a little less impressive based on what we have seen from MOH since. I already took 7.5 and may make an exception and take this ml as well.
Utah State - Wrong team favored? I made Utah State a favorite in the game. I tend to get this game wrong a lot though. Just think USU is operating on a different level offensively than BYU is right now.
Texas - Oklahoma has shown vulnerability defensively so far this year and while the offense has clicked well, and the drop off at qb isn't as bad as it would be with most teams that just lost Baker Mayfield, they haven't faced a defense this good yet. That offense is going to make plays though eventually and Texas will have to answer. Herman success as a dog is well covered on this forum. Worth a look ... though I think OU is a notch above Texas right now and doesn't necessarily match up poorly with the horns this year either. Again the unknown is OU vs a legit defense.
Tulane - While Cinci pass offense has improved, Tulane showed a willingness to let their corners play on islands while they take away the run against Memphis and they may employ more of the same against the bearcats bread and butter power run game. Offense is unique and a different challenge for cinci who has played pretty good defense to date. Going to be a lot of running so I would expect a lower possession game here as well.
Northwestern - Not really a fan of the spot and MSU might be getting a key player back this week. But not sure NW isn't about equal with MSU which makes this line a little confusing. Can you trust MSU to put up a number? Also getting to a point where NW has to start winning. Continued losing risks bowl eligibility with their current start. This line is too high and so you have value.
New Mexico - While I really like this under, UNM and UNLV both without their best QB's. UNLV is a run based team and UNM matches up better against that than the pass. Lofty number for rebels who aren't used to laying this many.
Nebraska - Significantly outgained Colorado (who has looked decent otherwise) in defeat, significantly outgained Purdue in defeat, and significantly outgained Troy in defeat. Corn weakness is the secondary and not sure Wisconsin is as equipped as some other teams to exploit it. Wisconsin overrated and Corn results give us a huge line and corresponding ML to fire at. Nebraska and Frost can get up for this game while Wisconsin has Michigan on deck. i will bite on this ML and already played the +21 this morning.
Utah - Stanford is dog poo. Love is banged up. I think Utah can bounce back in this game after choking away the win last week.
issed:
