Week 6 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 5 Winners
Army +230
Yale +220
Marist +425
Bucknell +400
Cornell +120
Georgia St +230
North Dakota +105
Missouri St +230
Nevada +155
Florida A&M +120
Idaho St +110
Liberty +225
Washington St +103
Ga Southern +145
Northern Illinois +148
Stony Brook +110
Florida +220
Va tech +215
MTSU +120
Murray St +340
ETSU +450
La Tech +245


Week 6 is here. Can you believe that we are almost half way thru the season? Again thanks to EVERYONE for dropping in and making this a great thread. Week in and week out you can find a few winners and/or bring attention to a game or 2 you might think to take a look at.

Alright Let’s Go!
 
Frank Costanza said:
Cannot dismiss Herman this weekend. He's now 11-1 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog in his head coaching career.

I don't think we can score enough vs. OU but never count out Herman when he's a dog.
Click to expand...

Probably a good game to live bet Texas on if OK starts out fast
 
Frank Costanza said:
Cannot dismiss Herman this weekend. He's now 11-1 ATS with eight outright wins as an underdog in his head coaching career.

I don't think we can score enough vs. OU but never count out Herman when he's a dog.
Click to expand...
I was thinking about the same team but for different reasons. My thinking is lines will begin tightened considerably and our ML Dog chances are fewer and farther between beginning this week. Our best chances moving forward will most likely be with rivalries were you can pretty much throw stats out the window. Texas / Okie fits the bill there IMHO and I did not even know about your Herman trends. Nice post.

:shake:
 
Away dogs less than 10pt line, worse defense, and both fav and dog have negative turnover margins: During week 4, my trend had two hits on Tulsa and Savannah State. They both lost SU & ATS bringing the records of this trend to 14-10 SU & 20-4 ATS since the beginning of the 2017 season. So far this season, it's 0-3 SU & 1-2 ATS so there could very well be some correction occurring. Having said that, and after a 1 week hiatus, it is active again this weekend on both Middle Tennessee State and Missouri. BOL in what you decide Gents!

week6lessdefense-turnovers1.jpg
week6lessdefense-turnovers2.jpg
 
ProV1Colt said:
Week 5 Winners
Army


Week 6 is here. Can you believe that we are almost half way thru the season? Again thanks to EVERYONE for dropping in and making this a great thread. Week in and week out you can find a few winners and/or bring attention to a game or 2 you might think to take a look at.

Alright Let’s Go!
Click to expand...
I had Northern Illinois as a dog . I also had Army Were those the only ones? No wonder I had a bad week
 
be just like my UNLV Rebels to LOSE outright to New Mexico as a -10 fav at home in Las Vegas their opening Mountain West game. NO moneyline listed yet in Las Vegas :nonofinger:
 
LeRinkRat said:
be just like my UNLV Rebels to LOSE outright to New Mexico as a -10 fav at home in Las Vegas their opening Mountain West game. NO moneyline listed yet in Las Vegas :nonofinger:
Click to expand...
Certainly unm better defensively vs rush than vs pass
 
Worth looks on the over 4 pt spreads.

MTSU - Marshall has been yardage challenged this year, 443, 367, 324, 401 to moh, eastern kentucky, ncsu and fau. MTSU gave up 346 to vandy, 484 to uga, and 426 to fau, which are pretty good results when looking at those teams vs other competition. Not much reason to think Marshall puts up a number in this game. In addition, MTSU has turned into a very slow paced team compared to past versions which will make for less possessions in the game that tends to lend itself to an underdog play. Revenge game from last year where Marshall put up a deceiving number of pts due to MTSU turnovers (set up inside 20 for a score, int return for another score). A little momentum from last week. Marshall win over MOH seems a little less impressive based on what we have seen from MOH since. I already took 7.5 and may make an exception and take this ml as well.

Utah State - Wrong team favored? I made Utah State a favorite in the game. I tend to get this game wrong a lot though. Just think USU is operating on a different level offensively than BYU is right now.

Texas - Oklahoma has shown vulnerability defensively so far this year and while the offense has clicked well, and the drop off at qb isn't as bad as it would be with most teams that just lost Baker Mayfield, they haven't faced a defense this good yet. That offense is going to make plays though eventually and Texas will have to answer. Herman success as a dog is well covered on this forum. Worth a look ... though I think OU is a notch above Texas right now and doesn't necessarily match up poorly with the horns this year either. Again the unknown is OU vs a legit defense.

Tulane - While Cinci pass offense has improved, Tulane showed a willingness to let their corners play on islands while they take away the run against Memphis and they may employ more of the same against the bearcats bread and butter power run game. Offense is unique and a different challenge for cinci who has played pretty good defense to date. Going to be a lot of running so I would expect a lower possession game here as well.

Northwestern - Not really a fan of the spot and MSU might be getting a key player back this week. But not sure NW isn't about equal with MSU which makes this line a little confusing. Can you trust MSU to put up a number? Also getting to a point where NW has to start winning. Continued losing risks bowl eligibility with their current start. This line is too high and so you have value.

New Mexico - While I really like this under, UNM and UNLV both without their best QB's. UNLV is a run based team and UNM matches up better against that than the pass. Lofty number for rebels who aren't used to laying this many.

Nebraska - Significantly outgained Colorado (who has looked decent otherwise) in defeat, significantly outgained Purdue in defeat, and significantly outgained Troy in defeat. Corn weakness is the secondary and not sure Wisconsin is as equipped as some other teams to exploit it. Wisconsin overrated and Corn results give us a huge line and corresponding ML to fire at. Nebraska and Frost can get up for this game while Wisconsin has Michigan on deck. i will bite on this ML and already played the +21 this morning.

Utah - Stanford is dog poo. Love is banged up. I think Utah can bounce back in this game after choking away the win last week.
 
MTSU. Not really a fan of either team, but could see this being decided late either way.

ECU. They are better than their record. Defensive line is pretty darn good. Too many points, either way.

BC---probably not but worth consideration.

Kansas State?

ODU. Part homer, part still believer in team

UTSA. They have to win this game to have any successful season, no?

VT. VT at home...night game....I know they aren't what they have been in the past, but this is an almost auto play.

Utah. Can't figure out Stanford. Think its a coin flip
 
I'll try and have some thoughts tonight or tomorrow for this week.

Here are this season's best performing ML dogs (prices are from scoresandodds closing number):

BYU +331, +1098
Cincinnati +447, +105
Coastal Carolina +256, +125
Duke +130, +105
Hawaii +711, +384
Kentucky +416, +292
Liberty +172, +222
LSU +317, +135
Virginia Tech +262, +211
 
Sparty favored heavily vs Nw but how will they score. WR crew depleted by injury and rush attack been anemic. NW missing Larkin but whatever Sparty run D been solid. Thorson passed on Sparty at will last year and this secondary is missing Scott linebackers are poor in pass coverage pass D ranked outside top 100
 
Small $50 ML plays on the following 3 dogs:
  • CFB - [366] Nevada +384
    Game start 10/06/2018 10:30 PM
  • CFB - [319] East Carolina +344
    Game start 10/06/2018 12:00 PM
  • CFB - [379] UAB +278
    Game start 10/06/2018 07:00 PM
 
How about some ULM +1098. I like it. Only problem is ULM is kind of basket case right now. Got down big 1st H vs Troy, tried coming back came up 8pts short. Don't know what the hell happened last week, but they played like shit at Georgia State. Might be one of those things where they expected to compete this year for Sun Belt and everyone telling them how good they should be, this should be their year, and it goes to their head and they aren't putting in the work and effort to actually make it happen. Kinda saw it week 1 and they have never quite lived up to expectations this year even if they did beat USM, the issues shown their last two Sun Belt games are a concern. If ULM was playing even a little better I would love this bet, but the price would also be alot worse.

Ole Miss sucks. I mean really, they suck. Fortunately for them they are only playing a Sun Belt D here so maybe their supposedly good/hyped O can score some points. But think about this, each time this year that Ole Miss has played a P5 team, the next week they lay an egg. Week 2 Southern Illinois led at halftime and it was just an 8 point game late 3rd qrt before Ole Miss pulled away. Then after playing Bama they were tied 7-7 at halftime vs Kent State the following week! And it was just 21-17, until again, Ole Miss pulled away in the 4th.

So here they are one more time facing a non-P5 team, off the horrible LSU game where they didn't look focused, disciplined and lacked effort and they are supposed to just flip a switch for this game? Maybe last week can serve as some kind of motivation to show out better back home for this game, but I don't think this Ole Miss team has that in them. Luke probably embarrassed, what can he get out of them, do these players even care? They just suck and they are going to keep on sucking I think. Can ULM beat them? Would anyone be that surprised if they did?
 
You can't favor Kentucky at Texas A&M. I mean I get that people think it is disrespect, but even though UK is good, they keep proving they are good. But you can't make them away fav at another good team. UK would be a small fav at home vs A&M. That seems right.
 
Ones I like right now would be Tulane, Ball State, ULM, Virginia Tech. I'm not even considering ULM a long shot. My long shot would be Bowling Green.
 
s--k

I did watch a lot of the Bowling Green game last week against GT and made a post about the GT secondary (which included other games I have seen) being a weakness. But as you might guess, the BG offense looked ok in that game. I have sort of been waiting for the Toledo defense to come around but it really hasn't. Sure they have played some good offensive teams but they can definitely be had. Just fear BG run defense has them playing from behind the whole game. It's really awful. Still, I think Bowling Green's offense is a little better than most would give it credit for. I took the over in the game and think they probably lose by DD but there is some life on that team and some major concerns on that particular huge favorite team.

TAMU absolutely should be favored against UK, though they could not muster much for 50 minutes of the game against Arkansas somehow. And their rush defense is a really tough matchup for the uk offense. held bama and Clemson under 4 yards a carry so they are gonna make the qb beat em. If you think uk can shut down TAMU offense then they obviously have a good chance but I wouldn't expect much from the uk offense in that game. Also, while it looks like that team has a lot of energy, this is a tough gauntlet to go through and be ready for each week. I am not sure that would be an issue or not .. horrible at such things but this is a tough game for uk. Obviously not a shock if they won as they are playing great ball but just keep the match up in mind.
 
I was high on ULM and even gave them some props heading into the year and tail end of last year ...but it looks like something is missing. I actually haven't seen a lot of their play this year so hard to comment beyond that but not sure I actually can trust myself with my opinion on them anymore. Which probably means it is a good week to hop on. Ole Miss is also an enigma of a sort. What if week one was a fluke and they just stink? Monroe does have some history of getting up for these big games.
 
RetroVK said:
s--k

I did watch a lot of the Bowling Green game last week against GT and made a post about the GT secondary (which included other games I have seen) being a weakness. But as you might guess, the BG offense looked ok in that game. I have sort of been waiting for the Toledo defense to come around but it really hasn't. Sure they have played some good offensive teams but they can definitely be had. Just fear BG run defense has them playing from behind the whole game. It's really awful. Still, I think Bowling Green's offense is a little better than most would give it credit for. I took the over in the game and think they probably lose by DD but there is some life on that team and some major concerns on that particular huge favorite team.

TAMU absolutely should be favored against UK, though they could not muster much for 50 minutes of the game against Arkansas somehow. And their rush defense is a really tough matchup for the uk offense. held bama and Clemson under 4 yards a carry so they are gonna make the qb beat em. If you think uk can shut down TAMU offense then they obviously have a good chance but I wouldn't expect much from the uk offense in that game. Also, while it looks like that team has a lot of energy, this is a tough gauntlet to go through and be ready for each week. I am not sure that would be an issue or not .. horrible at such things but this is a tough game for uk. Obviously not a shock if they won as they are playing great ball but just keep the match up in mind.
Click to expand...

Serious downgrade for Toledo at QB if Guadagni can't go....you definitely have the better QB with BG if Peters goes for Rockets...but that run D is really really bad and Toledo has good players at RB...
 
RetroVK said:
s--k

I did watch a lot of the Bowling Green game last week against GT and made a post about the GT secondary (which included other games I have seen) being a weakness. But as you might guess, the BG offense looked ok in that game. I have sort of been waiting for the Toledo defense to come around but it really hasn't. Sure they have played some good offensive teams but they can definitely be had. Just fear BG run defense has them playing from behind the whole game. It's really awful. Still, I think Bowling Green's offense is a little better than most would give it credit for. I took the over in the game and think they probably lose by DD but there is some life on that team and some major concerns on that particular huge favorite team.
Click to expand...
Marsski said:
Serious downgrade for Toledo at QB if Guadagni can't go....you definitely have the better QB with BG if Peters goes for Rockets...but that run D is really really bad and Toledo has good players at RB...
Click to expand...

Toledo seems to be talking about how they have had some defensive issues last year, allowing a bunch of yards and points, but then for MAC play they transformed into a better unit. I am not sure they are capable of that this year on the D side of the ball. No doubt facing a surging Nevada O and traveling across country to face Fresno back-to-back weeks will reveal some weaknesses.

I am going to assume that Guadagni goes for Toledo which makes the BG win harder.

There it nothing to like about BG's D and that makes them hard to back.

There is however some things to like about their O and I don't see much reason why some of the success Nevada had can't happen here as well with the Doege/Clair/Miller combo.

Thinking about last year's game it was pretty close through halftime, can't remember but at some point in the 3rd or 4th UT started blowing them out.

Pretty big rivalry game. Last year was 25 pt game, 2016 just 7 pt game (UT was -31!). BG wasn't any better in 2016 really. Probably a fluke. Just a gut feeling that this one might be closer. Will be chewing on it some more.
 
Florida State @ Miami: So the big stat that pops out at me is the huge total defensive mismatch Miami has over most teams including FSU in this game. It's well over 100ypg difference. I put in my normal comparisons including more rest for the home team and came up with 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS records. I added in the greater than 100ypg defensive difference in pic 2 and the records came up 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS. WHAT? So your telling me that the bigger the mismatch the worse chance the home team has of winning in this situation? How does that make any sense at all?? If I've said it once I've said it dozens of times, I LOVE finding counter-intuitive stuff!! I watched the UNC/Miami game and it was a competitive game until UNC started throwing pick 6s and giving up fumble recoveries to TDs. Considering these two teams are hated rivals, let's just throw the stats out the window. FSU's season can be made with a win here over one of their arch-rivals and I'm thinking they give Miami their best shot this Saturday. Pick: Florida State +13 & ML

fsu1.jpgfsu2.jpg
 
I watch so many games at once I can hardly remember what I see so it is helpful for me to read what other people are saying about their own teams.

Here is a Toledo forum, https://csnbbs.com/forum-479.html
Here are some things fans are saying, granted this is following their disappointing loss at Fresno:

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
OL sucks
They miss their former OL coach and wonder about if they have the right players or they aren't being developed
Guadagni runs too quick either can't read pass D or doesn't trust OL
Guadagni not getting the ball to the strength of the team enough (WRs)
D sucks
Need new DC
Blown coverages from Nevada game showing up again at Fresno
D allows RBs to bounce outside for big gainers too often
No RB has had more than 12 carries in a game this year (Guadagni has ran 15 times twice)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Again, this is off the Fresno game...and allowing nearly 600 yards vs Nevada. So fans aren't in a cheery mood right now.

I just contrast where this Toledo team is now compared to where last year's Toledo team was after their nonconference games. Has a different feel. Just not sure they are "right" by previous standards. Of course, BG still bad by any standard though.
 
If I've said it once I've said it dozens of times, I LOVE finding counter-intuitive stuff!!
Click to expand...

I am also a contrarian. To pick upset winners I really think you have to be because just about any evidence you find will support the favorite winning.

FSU is interesting. Everyone knows they are not playing good football. Hell they nearly lost to Louisville, another bad team. But if we remember last season, Miami was pretty hot with big wins over their first 3 and FSU was just 1-2 after nearly losing to WF. And that bad FSU team played a pretty tight game and nearly pulled off the win because they really cared about the Miami game. No doubt they will care again this year. The question is, how much worse off are they right now to compete compared to 2017?
 
s--k said:
I am also a contrarian. To pick upset winners I really think you have to be because just about any evidence you find will support the favorite winning.

FSU is interesting. Everyone knows they are not playing good football. Hell they nearly lost to Louisville, another bad team. But if we remember last season, Miami was pretty hot with big wins over their first 3 and FSU was just 1-2 after nearly losing to WF. And that bad FSU team played a pretty tight game and nearly pulled off the win because they really cared about the Miami game. No doubt they will care again this year. The question is, how much worse off are they right now to compete compared to 2017?
Click to expand...

Wondering if Miami isn't a little fraudulent dating back to last year's collapse. Now, you get struggling FSU in an interstate rivalry....seems like a live dog at least motivationally....
 
It's probably going to be too much of a reach for me to ML BG. I think I could find some reasons to play it ATS, but taking that next step is kind of a tall order. Will have to look more into ULM as the big dog candidate, that one seems much more likely as I do not fear the potential of an ATS loss in that one.
 
I've been on Kentucky four straight weeks and they have had the best four game stretch in memory. Their D is a bunch of tough guys that intimidates teams and their offense is knocking people off the ball.

The problem I see here is whether Kentucky can be up for four straight games, three of them hard, physical games, and still come out breathing fire in number five, on the road in a tough place to play. That almost never happens. When it does it's usually a physically tough team like Kentucky, but I think I'll pass on Ky this week.

I kind of like S--K's idea on FSU. They've been overlooked after a rotten start, but they have one of the best rush defenses in the country. The one ;problem with that is Taggert's defenses usually get worse during the year. I'll see what the final spread is, but I like FSU even though there is little logical reason to do so.
 
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